3 for Monday
Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 Rebounds (+116)
Jaylen Brown is averaging 7.1 rebounds per night for the season. He has snagged at least eight rebounds in six of his last eight games, including in three of his past four outings. He needs just seven for this to cash.
This line being at 6.5 with a +116 price is likely due to blowout risk as the
Boston Celtics are 11.5-point road favorites over the
Detroit Pistons. While a blowout is obviously a very real concern for this over, I still like Brown's chances to get at least seven rebounds.
The Pistons (
12th in pace) are a slight pace-up matchup for Boston (17th), and Detroit is just 24th in rebound rate. The Pistons are giving up the
11th-most rebounds per night to shooting guards.
Our model has Brown totaling 6.6 boards. If this was priced as more of a 50/50 bet, I'd stay away, but with plus-money on the over, that's the side I'm on.
Draymond Green to Record a Triple-Double (+900)
This one is priced at +900 for a reason -- it probably won't happen.
But I think there's a better chance
Draymond Green gets a triple-double than what the +900 price implies.
The matchup and game environment should help. Green is taking on the
Oklahoma City Thunder. Both OKC and the
Golden State Warriors sit in the top three in pace. The total is a juicy 234.0 points with a 4.0-point spread.
OKC has allowed 11.0 rebounds per night to power forwards, the 3rd-most, as well as the 10th-most points per game to the position (23.4). Green also averages 0.55 more boards per 36 minutes with
Stephen Curry -- who is out -- off the floor this year, per
CourtIQ.
While Draymond isn't a lock to get to double-figures in any of points, rebounds or assists, we have him projected to get fairly close to a triple-double as we peg him to amass 9.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 7.9 dimes. With this priced at +900, I think it's worth a roll of the dice.
Monte Morris Under 11.5 Points (-120)
Bradley Beal is listed on the
Washington Wizards' injury report but
went through Monday morning shootaround, which is a positive sign for his status. If Beal plays, I like the under on
Monte Morris' points prop.
The Wiz will see the
Cleveland Cavaliers, and it's a rough matchup for Morris.
The Cavaliers are first in defensive rating and play at the league's slowest pace. On top of that, Cleveland is holding the point guard position to just 23.0 points per game, the third-fewest. Point guards are getting only 18.9 shots per game against the Cavs, tied for the fifth-fewest.
Morris has netted 11 or fewer points in three of his past four contests. He's scoring 10.5 points per game for the campaign.
We project him to get 11.1 points today.