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Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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3 for Thursday

De'Anthony Melton Over 1.5 Made Threes (-115)​

De'Anthony Melton is taking on the Memphis Grizzlies, and Memphis has been giving up a lot of three-point tries of late.

Across their last 15 games, the Grizzlies are surrendering a three-point attempt rate of 41.0%, the fourth-highest in that span. The shooting-guard position is getting off 9.0 three-point shots per game against Memphis this season, the 13th-most.

Melton went into the break having hit multiple treys in four of his last seven games. Our model forecasts him to do so again tonight as we project Melton to go 2.1 of 5.5 from deep.

Paolo Banchero Under 7.5 Rebounds (-115)​

Paolo Banchero's rebounding totals have been all over the place lately. Over the past five games, he's pulled down 1, 4, 13, 10 and 8 rebounds.

His rebounds prop continues to be set at 7.5 most nights. We hit on an under with him when he snagged four rebounds on February 13th, and our projections like the under once more.

Banchero is averaging 6.6 rebounds per game, and he's put up 7.0 rebounds per game in two meetings with the Detroit Pistons, his opposition tonight.

We project Banchero to finish with 6.3 rebounds, and the under looks like the side to be on.

Josh Green Over 3.5 Rebounds (+114)​

This is a plus-money prop I can get behind.

Josh Green has been moved into a starting role for the new-look Dallas Mavericks, starting in seven consecutive games. Over that seven-game span, he's averaging 3.9 rebounds per night. He's gone for at least four boards in three games in that stretch and has at least three rebounds in five of the seven contests.

When sharing the floor with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, Green has totaled 3.8 rebounds per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ.

Green is facing a San Antonio Spurs team that allows the sixth-most rebounds per game to shooting guards (5.5).

Our algorithm has Green totaling 4.3 rebounds on Thursday. As long as this doesn't get too lopsided too early -- which is a fare concern given the 14.0-point spread -- I love this over.
 

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Brook Lopez Over 1.5 Made Threes (-120)​

Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to be out tonight for the Milwaukee Bucks. That obviously leaves a lot of shots up for grabs in the Bucks' offense.

Brook Lopez should benefit, especially from three. With Giannis off the floor this year, Lopez is making 2.3 threes per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ.

The matchup helps, too. Milwaukee is up against the Miami Heat. Miami is giving up a league-high 42.3% three-point attempt rate over the last 15 games.

Lopez has hit multiple treys in two of his three matchups with Miami this season. Milwaukee was without Giannis for two of those games, and Lopez sank at least two trifectas in each of them.

I'm a little more bullish on this bet than our model is, but we still have Lopez at 1.8 made threes on 4.8 attempts.

Clint Capela Under 11.5 Points (-105)​

Clint Capela has a brutal matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and that has me on the under on his points prop.

Not only are the Cavaliers first in defensive rating, but the interior D of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen has made it particularly tough on opposing bigs all season. As a result, the Cavs are allowing the center position to score just 20.6 points per night, the sixth-fewest.

Capela has first-hand knowledge of this as he was limited to only four points in 27 minutes in his lone meeting with Cleveland this season.

Capela has been held to 10 or fewer points in five of his previous nine games, and we project him to score just 10.6 points tonight.

Mike Conley Over 1.5 Made Threes (-172)​

I know, I know -- the -172 juice isn't fun. But our model loves this one.

Mike Conley is taking on the Charlotte Hornets, and there should be a ton of possessions in the game. Charlotte and Minnesota rank 4th and 5th, respectively, in pace, and neither side is all that great on defense, with the Hornets sitting 24th in defensive rating.

It's a small sample of three games, but so far, Conley has a higher three-point attempt rate with Minnesota (61.9%) than he did with the Utah Jazz (56.8%).

Our algorithm projects Conley to make 2.8 three-pointers on 7.3 attempts against the Hornets.
 

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Beer money parlay for today

nba par.png
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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Beer money parlay for today

View attachment 61022
Winner but reduced as Gobert didnt play....could have had a bottle of Makers Mark but had to settle for a 6 pack of Blue Moon




2 ideas for today

Killian Hayes Under 21.5 Points + Assists (-128)​

The Detroit Pistons have a long injury list tonight, with Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanovic and Jalen Duren all out (and Isaiah Stewart questionable). They're going to need some of their ancillary pieces to step up against the Charlotte Hornets. While Killian Hayes figures to see a lot of playing time, I like the under on his points-plus-assists combo.

With Ivey, Duren and Bogdanovic off the floor this year, Killian Hayes' numbers haven't changed all that much. Over a meaty 198.2-minute sample without those three, Hayes is averaging 13.1 points and 8.0 assists per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ, which are slight increases of only 0.2 points and 0.2 dimes per 36. His usage rate rises just 0.3 percentage points -- up to 20.5%.

That puts him on pace for 21.1 points plus assists if he sees 36 minutes. Our model has him logging 32.0 minutes.

On top of that, the Hornets have been stingy against point guards, permitting the sixth-fewest points per night to the position (23.4). Charlotte has been right at the league average in terms of assists allowed per game to floor generals.

We project Hayes to record 12.2 points and 7.1 assists -- 19.3 total. There is some decent wiggle room on this one.

Derrick White Over 3.5 Assists (-140)​

Unlike what we just went through above, this recommendation is an example of an injury situation really boosting a player's output.

Jaylen Brown is out tonight for the Boston Celtics, and with Brown off the court this season, Derrick White generates a whopping 6.2 assists per 36 minutes -- a jump of 1.3 assists over his season-long mark.

A date with the New York Knicks helps, too. New York has given up the eighth-most assists per night to point guards (9.1).

With a 2.5-point spread in this game, there's not much blowout risk, so White should get his minutes.

Our model projects White to amass 5.7 assists across 36.0 minutes. This is a prop bet to smash.
 

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Took these in every 3,4,5 play combo available


Gambooool!!!!

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Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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Gonna try and get lucky with the 21 bucks left in this account....hoping I dont have to reload it:an_burn_m


These numbers are just tooooo juicy though, I like Murray for 40+ and Rudy for 30+


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3 prop ideas for today

Cam Thomas Under 1.5 Made Threes​

Cam Thomas has a difficult matchup for threes against the Milwaukee Bucks, and that has me on the under on his made threes prop.

Over the last 15 games, Milwaukee has surrendered a three-point attempt rate of just 35.1%, the third-lowest in that span. The shooting-guard position is getting off only 8.5 three-point shots per night against the Bucks this year, tied for the eighth-fewest.

Thomas is no longer starting for the new-look Brooklyn Nets, and across the last five games, he's averaging only 23.7 minutes per game and making just 1.4 threes on 3.2 attempts.

Thomas is still capable of filling it up when he's hot -- hitting three triples in two of those last five games -- but when you combine his current role with the bad matchup, it's easy to feel good about this under.

Our model has Thomas hitting 1.4 threes on 4.4 attempts.

Desmond Bane Over 2.5 Made Threes (-128)​

The Los Angeles Lakers' three-point D is on the opposite end of the spectrum from the Bucks' defense. In the past 15 games, LA has given up a 42.2% three-point attempt rate, the third-highest.

Enter Desmond Bane.

Bane is in a shooting slump, making only 29.7% of his three-balls over the last five games. But he's still gone over 2.5 made threes twice in that time, and he's bound to start shooting it better, as he's a 43.0% shooter from deep for his career, including 41.3% this campaign.

The recent swoon hasn't impacted his volume much, either, as he's taken at least seven threes in four consecutive games.

This matchup should help, too. The Lakers have allowed a league-high 9.4 three-point attempts per game to small forwards this year.

We project Bane for 3.4 trifectas on 7.8 attempts. As long as the Lakers -- who are 9.0-point 'dogs -- can keep things fairly close and ensure Bane sees his usual fourth-quarter minutes, the over has a good chance to cash.

Luka Doncic Under 31.5 Points (-106)​

It's always scary to bet the under for anything with Luka Doncic, but I'm going to risk it here.

The matchup is a big reason why.

Luka is facing the Indiana Pacers. Indiana has been a lockdown defense against point guards this year, holding the position to a league-low 22.1 points per game.

On top of that, Doncic is scoring only 27.8 points per 36 minutes when sharing the court with Kyrie Irving, according to CourtIQ.

While Luka can erupt in any matchup and in any situation, the under checks a few boxes, and our model is in line, forecasting Doncic to score 30.7 points tonight.
 

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Cam Johnson Over 2.5 Made Threes (+112)​

Cam Johnson has been letting it fly since coming to the Brooklyn Nets.

In six games with the Nets, he's averaging 7.5 three-point tries per game. He was taking 5.8 threes per night with the Phoenix Suns. His shooting percentage has been way down, though, and he's bound to see some positive regression as he's hitting just 31.1% of his treys with Brooklyn after making 45.5% with Phoenix.

He should be able to get off plenty of threes today against the New York Knicks, a team that is giving up third-most three-point attempts per game to power forwards (7.1).

We project Johnson to go 2.9 of 7.0 from three. That's not quite the three triples needed for this over to cash, but given the +112 price, I think this is worth a roll of the dice.

De'Anthony Melton Over 2.5 Rebounds (-160)​

The -160 juice is a lot to swallow, but our model has De'Anthony Melton going well past this line.

Last time out, Melton had three rebounds versus the Miami Heat, and he plays the Heat again tonight. Miami has allowed the eighth-most rebounds per game to point guards (6.4).

Melton is snagging 4.1 boards per game for the year and should be on the floor a ton as he's averaging a career-best 28.2 minutes per game.

Our model has Melton pulling down 4.4 rebounds on Wednesday night.

Paolo Banchero Under 19.5 Points (-120)​

Paolo Banchero is in a tough spot tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks as Milwaukee permits the fewest points per game to the power-forward position (19.3).

Banchero hasn't been filling it up, either. Prior to a 29-point outburst in his most recent game, he'd netted 19 or fewer points in six of his last seven contests, averaging just 15.4 points per night over that seven-game stretch.

There's also a smidge of blowout risk here with the Orlando Magic a 7.5-point road 'dog against one of the league's elite teams.

All in all, Banchero projects for 17.8 points, per our numbers.
 

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Jordan Poole Under 24.5 Points (-125)​

It's always hard to click submit on a Jordan Poole under because the dude can light it up when he's cooking and has zero conscience. He just had one of those games last night, netting 29 points and taking 24 shots.

But I like this under.

Prior to Wednesday's game, Poole had scored fewer than 25 points in 12 of his previous 15 games, including 4 of the last 5. He's also been a slightly worse scorer at home than on the road, netting 20.0 points per night in the Bay Area and 21.7 per game on the road.

This home date with the Los Angeles Clippers is a tough matchup, too, as the Clips have held the point guard position to 24.1 points per game, the ninth-fewest.

We project Poole to score 23.1 points. The under looks like the side to be on.

Zach Collins Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120)​

The San Antonio Spurs-Indiana Pacers game is an interesting one as of early Thursday afternoon. It's going to be an over-friendly environment -- we know that much. The total is 238.0 points, and both sides are in the bottom five in defensive rating as well as the top 10 in pace. Giddy up.

But there are injury situations for each team, with Keldon Johnson and Tyrese Haliburton questionable. That makes this a volatile situation until that's cleared up, but I think this is a prop we can target with some conviction.

The Pacers are third-worst in rebound rate and have allowed the center position to amass 14.9 rebounds per night, the eighth-most.

Zach Collins has logged at least 28.5 minutes in five straight games. He's gone for eight-plus boards just twice in that time but can take advantage of this matchup.

Our model has Collins snagging 8.5 rebounds on Thursday.
 

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Trey Day Props

Al Horford Over 5.5 Rebounds (-146)​

Al Horford has racked up at least six rebounds in six of his past eight games, and I like his chances to do it again tonight.

Horford is up against the Brooklyn Nets. Brooklyn is really struggling on the glass with their new lineup, sitting dead last in rebound rate over the past five games.

The veteran Boston Celtics' big man grabbed 6.1 rebounds per game in February and is averaging 6.2 rebounds per night for the season.

The big worry here is blowout risk as the C's are 11.5-point favorites. But as long as Horford gets his usual minutes, he can soar past this, and he might be able to hit the over in abbreviated run, too.

Our model has him totaling 7.2 rebounds on Friday night.

Jordan Poole Over 4.5 Assists (-130)​

The over on Jordan Poole's assists prop is another bet our algorithm is into.

Poole has gotten to handle the ball more in the absence of Stephen Curry, and that's led to increased assist totals. In February, Poole averaged 5.7 assists per night, and he's dished out five-plus dimes in 6 of his previous 10 games.

The game environment and matchup should help. The Golden State Warriors are hosting the New Orleans Pelicans in a clash with a 230.5-point total and 4.5-point spread. New Orleans has given up the 13th-most assists per game to the point-guard position (8.8).

We project Poole to hand out 5.4 assists.

Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple-Double (-110)​

Nikola Jokic has notched a triple-double in 13 of his past 17 games. He's averaging 24.6 points, 11.7 rebounds and 10.0 assists for the year and is coming off an amazing February in which he put up averages of 22.6 points, 14.2 boards and 10 dimes for the month.

A Memphis Grizzlies squad that is still sans Steven Adams is unlikely to slow down Jokic. The Grizz have allowed the most rebounds per night to centers over the last 15 games as well as the sixth-most assists in that span.

Jokic has recorded a points-rebounds double-double in 12 straight games. It's the assists that are likely to be the biggest hurdle tonight. That was the case the last time he played Memphis as he recorded just three helpers. But he had a 13-13-13 triple-double in his other meeting with the Grizzlies.

Our numbers have Jokic finishing with 22.9 points, 13.7 rebounds and 10.0 assists.

If you want to roll the dice on the Denver Nuggets -- who are a 5.5-point home favorite -- getting the win, you can bet Jokic to get a triple-double and the Nuggets to win at a price of +156.
 

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Tyrese Haliburton Under 18.5 Points (-104)​

Tyrese Haliburton has poured in 32 and 29 points over his past two games. Despite that, there are reasons to like the under on his points prop today.

A matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers is a big reason why. Philly is tough on point guards, and they have been all year long. The Sixers are limiting the point-guard position to 22.5 points per night, the third-fewest, and they give up the eighth-fewest shots per night to floor generals (18.8).

We've seen that play out on Haliburton's two previous meetings with the 76ers this season as he's averaged only 12.5 shots per night over the two games. He netted 16 points in the most recent matchup and 19 points in the earlier one, but he needed a hot shooting night -- 7 for 11 from the floor, including 3 of 6 from deep -- to get those 19 points.

Lastly, Philadelphia (26th in pace) is a huge pace-down spot for Indiana (10th).

Our model projects Haliburton to record 17.4 points on Monday night.

Jerami Grant Over 2.5 Assists (-134)​

Jerami Grant has a delightful matchup with the Detroit Pistons, and that has me on the over on his assists prop.

Grant has gone over 2.5 assists in four straight games, including a seven-assist outing last night versus the Orlando Magic. He's seeing massive minutes, too, playing at least 36 minutes in 9 of his last 10 games.

The Pistons are 12th in pace and 28th in defensive rating, so their games are usually over-friendly environments for props. They have permitted the fourth-most assists per night to small forwards over the past 15 games (4.5).

There's not a ton of blowout risk here, either, as the Portland Trail Blazers -- who are on the second leg of a road back-to-back -- are just 5.5-point favorites.

We project Grant for 3.2 assists.
 

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2 props

Tyus Jones Under 16.5 Points (-128)​

Tyus Jones is going to get another start in place of Ja Morant, but I think this is a good spot to target the under on his points prop.

Jones is up against the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Lakers have been playing some serious defense lately, sitting third in defensive rating across the last 10 games. And the over/under for this game is only 225.0 points, the second-lowest of the night.

Jones certainly plays a bigger role sans Morant, but his usage doesn't jump as much as you might think. With Morant, Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke off the court -- which accounts for tonight's floor condition -- Jones sees a usage-rate boost of only 1.9 percentage points, up to 20.4%, according to CourtIQ.

We project Jones for 15.4 points.

Cam Johnson Over 2.5 Made Threes (-148)​

It should be bombs away tonight for Cam Johnson in a date with the Houston Rockets.

Over the last 15 games, Houston is giving up the highest three-point attempt rate in the NBA (44.7%). For the year, power forwards are taking 7.6 threes per game against Houston, tied for the most.

It's not like Johnson needs much encouragement to shoot from deep. He's taken at least six threes in every game he's played since coming to the Brooklyn Nets, and he's averaging 8.0 three-point tries per night since the trade -- up from 5.8 per game during his time with the Phoenix Suns this season.

We project Johnson to go 3.4 of 8.2 tonight from three. The -148 juice isn't fun, but the over looks like a sound bet.
 

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Al Horford Over 2.5 Assists (-120)​

Our model likes Al Horford tonight in a home date with the Portland Trail Blazers, and I think this is a good way to take advantage of it.

Horford is occupying the center position for the Boston Celtics with Robert Williams sidelined. Over the last seven games, the Blazers are giving up the fifth-most assists per night to the position (5.2).

Horford has gone for at least three assists in four of his last six games, including three straight. In his first game sans Williams, he tallied six assists, although he was aided by getting to play an overtime session. He's also a safe bet for big minutes, playing at least 32 in five of the last six games.

Our model projects Horford to rack up 3.0 assists. You can also target the over on his rebound prop, which is set at 6.5 (-118). We have him pulling down 7.5 boards.

Kyrie Irving Under 27.5 Points (-115)​

Kyrie Irving is actually scoring more points per game with the Dallas Mavericks (27.6) than he did with the Brooklyn Nets (27.1), but he's taking 1.8 fewer shots per game since the trade and has seen his usage rate drop 1.9 percentage points.

He's scoring more thanks to some likely unsustainable shooting percentages.

In 10 games with Dallas, Kyrie is making 59.5% of his twos and 42.1% of his threes. Those clips were at 56.5% and 37.4%, respectively, this year with Brooklyn. Irving is obviously a remarkably skilled player, but he's unlikely to keep shooting this well.

Even with the hot shooting, Kyrie is barely over this line in his time with Dallas, scoring 27.6 points per night.

He's up against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. He's dropped in 15 and 19 points in two meetings with the Pels this year, although both came prior to his move to Dallas.

We have Kyrie scoring 25.1 points tonight, well under this line.

OG Anunoby Over 4.5 Rebounds (+112)​

This is a plus-money prop I can get behind.

OG Anunoby's rebounding numbers have been down lately. He's snagged five-plus boards only twice in his last 10 games, but I think he can break that trend tonight.

He'll battle the Los Angeles Clippers, a team that's giving up the fourth-most rebounds per game to small forwards over the past seven games (8.9).

While OG's rebounding totals have sagged, he's still averaging 5.2 boards per night for the season. Prior to this recent down stretch, he'd recorded at least five rebounds in 7 of 11 games.

Our algorithm has Anunoby projected for 5.0 rebounds today, and he's got a better chance of cashing this over than the +112 price implies.
 

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Jordan Poole Over 17.5 Points (-114)​

While Jordan Poole has netted just 10 and 11 points in the two games since Stephen Curry returned, there are reasons to back the over on his points prop.

With Curry on the floor, Poole's usage falls, but he's still scoring 17.6 points per night in the split, according to CourtIQ. Despite the down scoring nights in the last two, Poole got plenty of run, playing 31.5 and 28.3 minutes, and he hoisted 17 treys across the two outings. Those are positive signs.

Poole will see the Memphis Grizzlies today, and he has scored 32 and 21 points in his two clashes with them this year, with Steph playing in the 21-point game. He also averaged 17.8 points versus the Grizzlies in last year's six-game playoff series.

Our model has Poole scoring 18.9 points tonight.

Julius Randle Under 3.5 Made Threes (-111)​

The Sacramento Kings have been a tough matchup for threes this season, and that puts me on this under.

For the year, the Kings have allowed the 10th-fewest three-point attempts per game to power forwards (6.3).

Julius Randle isn't your average power forward. He's taken at least eight three-point attempts in eight straight games, but he's made four-plus threes in only 7 of his previous 17 games. He went 3 for 11 from deep in the only other meeting between these two teams this campaign.

We project Randle to go 2.5 of 7.6 from three in this one. The under is the side to be on.

Myles Turner Over 1.5 Made Threes (+112)​

We should get an absolute track meet tonight in Indy as the Indiana Pacers host the Houston Rockets.

Over the last 15 games, both sides are in the bottom four in defensive rating. The over/under is set at 236.5 points. It's going to be an over-friendly environment, and while most of the prop lines reflect that, I think there's some value on Myles Turner's made threes prop.

Houston has ceded a crap ton of threes all year long, and it's been no different of late as they've permitted the third-highest three-point attempt rate over the past 15 games (44.9%).

Minutes shouldn't be an issue tonight. Turner has played at least 26 minutes in seven of the last eight games, and his defensive presence will be needed against Alperen Sengun.

We project Turner to make 1.7 threes on 4.8 tries. That's obviously under the two made threes we need for this to cash, but the over has a better chance than the pricing on this line -- +112 on the over and -142 price on the under -- indicates.
 

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Donovan Mitchell Under 3.5 Made Threes (-104)​

It's always a bit scary to bet on the under on Donovan Mitchell's made threes prop. The guy takes a lot of threes and can get hot, and that was on full display not that long ago as he torched the Toronto Raptors for an 8-for-12 night from deep on February 26th.

But I like this under tonight, and our model is in line.

Mitchell is taking on the Miami Heat, and it should be a slog. Over the past 15 games, these two sides rank in the bottom three in pace. The total is only 215.0 points, which is the lowest of the night by 9.5 points. In short, there won't be a ton of possessions.

On top of that, the Heat have done decently well against shooting guards when it comes to the three-ball. Across the past 15 games, Miami is allowing the 12th-fewest made threes per night to the position (3.1).

Our model really likes this bet, projecting Mitchell to go 3.2 of 8.8 from three tonight. With a -104 price on the under, this prop is a good one to zero in on.

Nikola Jokic Over 22.5 Points (-125)​

Nikola Jokic might go nuts on the San Antonio Spurs.

San Antonio has been bad defensively all year, and they've gotten even worse against bigs since they dealt away Jakob Poeltl. Over the last 15 games, the Spurs are allowing the third-most points per night to centers (26.4). In that span, they've also played at the third-fastest pace and have recorded the fifth-worst defensive rating.

So, yeah, they're probably not going to offer much resistance versus Jokic.

Jokic has been in a scoring rut of late, being held to 18 or fewer points in four straight. But he's averaging 24.3 points for the season, and our model forecasts Jokic to net 24.8 tonight.

My biggest worry here is blowout risk as the Denver Nuggets are 13.0-point road favorites. A blowout could lead to reduced minutes for Jokic, but even with abbreviated minutes, he could still hit this over.
 

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This is the one baby......I feel a bottle of Makers 46 on the horizon

Another loss and im drinking Natural Lite tall boys this weekend which are on sale 3.75 for 4 at the local Family Dollar

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Al Horford Over 2.5 Assists (-144)​

Al Horford has at least three assists in five straight games, and he draws a plum matchup today against the Houston Rockets.

Houston has allowed a league-high 5.4 assists per night to centers across the last 15 games. They're dead last in defensive rating in that span and should have a really tough time slowing down the Boston Celtics, something that's reflected in Boston's juicy 122.0-point implied total.

My biggest worry here is the most obvious one -- blowout risk. Boston is a 12.5-point road favorite and may pummel Houston, which could lead to fewer minutes for Horford.

But as long as he gets something close to his usual allotment of minutes, Horford has a great chance to cash this over. We project him to total 3.2 assists.

You can also roll the dice on the over on Horford's rebounds prop. It's set at 6.5 (-115 on the over), and we have him pulling down 7.5 boards.

Bam Adebayo Under 8.5 Rebounds (-130)​

In a vacuum, this line is a fairly low bar for Bam Adebayo to clear. I mean, he's averaging 9.4 rebounds for the season. But there's a reason the prop is set at 8.5 and has -130 juice on the under.

Bam hasn't been doing that much glass work of late, finishing with seven or fewer boards in four consecutive outings. A matchup with the Utah Jazz isn't the place for him to bounce back.

Utah has been going big lately, playing Walker Kessler and Kelly Olynyk together quite a bit. That's made them an excellent rebounding squad. Over the past 15 games, Utah is third in rebound rate, and they have held the center position to only 14.3 rebounds per game, the ninth-fewest.

I think Bam is in for another quieter night on the glass and am siding with the under.

Anthony Edwards Over 2.5 Made Threes (-138)​

We should see gobs of points tonight in the Minnesota Timberwolves-Atlanta Hawks matchup. The total is set at 244.5 points, and the spread is just 5.5. Both sides are in the top seven in pace over the last 15 games. It'll be a track meet in Atlanta.

Anthony Edwards can feast in this matchup.

Edwards has been letting it fly from three, taking at least eight triples in four straight games. He's hit at least three treys in three of those four contests, and for the year, he's been a more accurate long-range shooter on the road (40.%) than at home (34.4%).

We project him to go 3.6 of 9.9 from three on Monday.
 

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Darius Garland Over 25.5 Points (-106)​

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a delightful matchup tonight with the Charlotte Hornets, and they're going to be without Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen. That has me on the over on Darius Garland's points prop.

With Mitchell and Allen off the court this year, Garland owns a 30.3% usage rate and nets 26.0 points per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ. That's a usage-rate bump of 3.2 percentage points.

Charlotte (7th in pace over the past 15) is a massive pace-up spot for Cleveland (29th), and the Cavs being short-handed -- and on the road -- should help this game stay fairly competitive, ensuring Garland gets his minutes. The spread is 7.5 points, and the Cavaliers' implied total is 115.5.

We project Garland to score 26.0 points tonight, and there's upside for a bunch more.

Immanuel Quickley Over 4.5 Assists (-130)​

Immanuel Quickley also benefits from his team being short-handed as Jalen Brunson is expected to be out tonight for the New York Knicks.

That's big for Quickley, who averages 5.5 dimes per 36 minutes along with a 23.7% usage rate with Brunson off the court this season.

Quickly is already seeing big minutes -- 32 and 41 over the past two, with Brunson missing both of those -- and he should feast on a Portland Trail Blazers defense that sits dead last in defensive rating over the past 15 games and has been tagged for 9.2 assists per night by floor generals this season, the fourth-most.

We have Quickley totaling 5.5 assists on Tuesday.

Chris Paul Under 9.5 Assists (-106)​

There are a few reasons to back the under on Chris Paul's assists at this line of 9.5.

The matchup is a big one. The Milwaukee Bucks -- led by the defense of Jrue Holiday -- have kept the point-guard position to just 6.6 assists per night over the past 15 games, the fewest in the NBA in that span. Milwaukee is an all-around elite D, sitting third in defensive rating over that 15-game stretch.

On top of that, CP3 has the schedule working against him.

The Phoenix Suns played last night at the Golden State Warriors and had to travel back home for this second leg of a back-to-back. Paul has played in five second legs of a back-to-back this campaign, and his numbers are down pretty much across the board, which is what you'd expect for a player in his age-37 season.

In the split, he's averaging 8.8 assists and 30.8 minutes per game, compared to season-long marks of 9.1 assists and 32.1 minutes.

The under is the side I'm going to be on.
 

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Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds (+100)​

The Denver Nuggets are in need of a win to break their four-game losing streak.

Luckily for them, they are going up against the Detroit Pistons, which is a favorable matchup for Nikola Jokic. There aren't many matchups that don't put the two-time MVP in a good spot, but this one is particularly soft for rebounds.

This season, the Pistons are allowing 16.10 rebounds per game to opposing centers, which is the fifth-worst in the league. Jokic's rebound prop is sitting at 12.5 at even money, which seems very doable for him in this matchup. He's been over that 12.5 mark in 6 of his last 10 games, including games of 18, 18, and 20 rebounds.

numberFire's projections have him going for 13.4 rebounds tonight, putting him over his prop against the Pistons.

Mikal Bridges Over 2.5 Made Threes (-113)​

When it comes to the Brooklyn Nets, Mikal Bridges is their main guy now.

Post trade deadline, Bridges has emerged as the primary scorer for the Nets, pouring in buckets left and right. While the points are great, we are specifically looking at three-pointers tonight, another area he has been crushing lately.

Bridges has at least three made three-pointers in three straight games and three or more in four of his last five games. He's simply on fire from the field right now, and a strong matchup against the Sacramento Kings should see that continue.

We are looking at a high 238.0-point over/under and a very close 2.0-point spread, giving us a strong game environment for scoring. This is also a pace-up spot for the Nets (19th) because the Kings (9th) are one of the faster-paced teams in the league.

The Kings also find themselves in the bottom half of the league for the most three-pointers (12.4) allowed per game to opponents. All of his puts Bridges in a great spot to cash the over on his prop tonight.

Jrue Holiday Under 18.5 Points (-128)​

Finally, let's look at Jrue Holiday of the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Bucks are big 12.5-point home favorites against the Indiana Pacers, who are dealing with a slew of injuries tonight. If the Pacers are going to be rolling out a less-than-healthy lineup, we are looking at some serious blowout potential for the Bucks tonight.

They're already the best team in the league, and simply put, the Pacers don't stand a chance with a lineup of bench players. This game narrative is what could lead to Holiday hitting the under on 18.5 points tonight -- he simply won't have to play a ton of minutes.

The Bucks get out to a huge lead, pull their starters early, and it all leads to unders on props. This is not to mention that Holiday hasn't been scoring lately either. Over his last five games, he has been over this mark only one time. numberFire's projections have Holiday going for 17.3 points tonight, which would cash the under.
 

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