NBA Prop Bets===Master Thread

[MAGAking1]

I dont watch the NBA , havent watched a game since before the bubble season....even though I just started playing daily fantasy baskets and have 2 season long best ball fantasy teams.
So I do read about it quite a bit and will also make prop bets on it as well.



So Ill post some stuff I like and you all do the same, lets make some money!!!

 

[MAGAking1]

Easy winner last time

Lets see if WE can find more winners than losers this week.

 

[MAGAking1]

Going back to the well tonight in the Nets/Pacers rematch

 

[MAGAking1]

These 2 look solid

Draymond​

The Miami Heat host the Golden State Warriors tonight with both teams looking to bounce back from consecutive losses.


The Heat have struggled on the glass and are just 27th in the NBA in rebounding rate. When these teams faced off last week, the Dubs had a 50-31 edge on the boards and Draymond Green pulled down seven.


Green averaged 7.3 rebounds in 46 games last season and while his rebounding numbers have dipped a bit this year, he has still secured at least seven boards in four straight.


Look for him to hit that mark again and take the Over 6.5 on his rebounds total tonight.


Draymond Green Prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (+105)

Dorts​

Thunder swingman Luguentz Dort is averaging 14 points per game but is shooting 35.9% from the floor — including just 17.1% from beyond the arc. That said, Dort averaged 17.2 ppg on 40.4% shooting last season and he drained 2.5 per game from beyond the arc at a 33.2% clip.


Those shooting percentages are below average but are still much better than what he's been doing in a smaller sample size this season, so positive regression seems likely.


Dort is averaging 13 field goal attempts and 5.8 3-point attempts per game, so the shooting volume is there and with Josh Giddey ruled out for the fourth game in a row, his usage rate will continue to be high.


The Thunder are hosting the Magic as 3.5-point favorites tonight. The Magic have been solid defensively this season but are banged up in their backcourt and will have a tough time matching up with OKC on the perimeter, especially if they focus on slowing down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. I'm backing the Over 14.5 on Dort's points total.


Luguentz Dort Prop: Over 14.5 points (-117)

 

[MAGAking1]

I bet this one

 

[MAGAking1]

Went with these 2

 

[MAGAking1]

3 bets to consider for Thursday

Michael Porter Jr. Under 17.5 Points (-122)​

There's a pretty big deviation for Michael Porter Jr.'s points prop (17.5) and his projection from the numberFire model (15.4).

Porter Jr. is averaging 18.5 points per game on the back of 46.9% shooting -- and 48.9% shooting from beyond the arc. That's stemming from good three-point volume, too: 3.8 makes on 7.8 attempts per game.

However, Porter Jr. has an expected three-point percentage of just 40.2%, according to underlying data (via DARKO). At that rate, he'd be making 3.1 threes per game on that current shot volume.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are also better than average at defending the three-point arc and allow just 34.0 three-point attempts per game (11th-lowest).

Wendell Carter Jr. Over 9.5 Rebounds (-110)​

Here's another one where the model at numberFire (10.7) is showing a noticeable discrepancy from the prop (9.5).

Wendell Carter Jr. is securing 9.5 rebounds per game over 32.6 minutes. He's projected for a similar 32.79 minutes tonight.

He is, though, bringing in 0.29 rebounds per minute and should be at 0.31, via DARKO. That sounds small, but it's the difference between 9.5 and 10.2 rebounds over those 32.79 projected minutes.

Let's also account for the fact that the Golden State Warriors rank 25th in rebounding rate (48.9%), and it makes sense that Carter Jr. can make good on the expected rebounding regression.

Josh Giddey Over 12.5 Points (-122)​

The gap here in projection (12.9) and prop (12.5) is a bit small, but my model likes Josh Giddey at around 13.7 points.

Giddey is scoring just 0.44 points per minute with 25.0% shooting from beyond the arc.

You know where I'm going next: the underlying data has him at 0.48 points per minute with a still-not-even-great boost to 30.7% from three-point range.

At a projection of 32.64 minutes, that's a gap between 14.4 points and 15.7 points.

Each is substantially higher than his prop anyway.

The Denver Nuggets hold the worst defensive rating on the road this season (123.6), which is around 110% of the NBA average. That should lead to a scoring efficiency increase for Giddey, as well.

 

[Avocado33]

Some nice value in 3-pt props early, especially against teams with weak perimeter defenders -- OKC, Orlando, Minny even

Jamal Murray was like +130 for 2.5 3's (it hit)

Some opportunities available like that

 

[MAGAking1]

3 prop bets to consider for Friday the 4th

Derrick White Over 14.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-108)​

This one is a big discrepancy from numberFire's projections for Derrick White: 10.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 3.9 assists (17.8 total).

White is averaging 8.7 points, 3.4 boards, and 3.1 assists (15.2 total) across 27.0 minutes.

Based on the underlying data at DARKO, White should be averaging 0.36 points per minute rather than 0.32 as well as a slight uptick in rebounding rate.

His expected points-rebounds-and-assists-per-minute rate of 0.60 should get him above 15.0 total -- even when projected at 25.8 minutes (i.e. a decline from his full-season rate).

Based on his numberFire projection (17.8), we can consider White around 75.0% likely to go over.

Keldon Johnson Under 21.5 Points (-111)​

Keldon Johnson and the San Antonio Spurs are hosting the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. The Clippers rank fourth in non-garbage-time defensive rating and allow just 106.3 points per game (third-lowest in the NBA).

Johnson is getting a points projection of 20.6 tonight in his 32.6 projected minutes. He's scoring 0.71 points per minute -- an unsustainably high rate. He's been between 0.45 and 0.53 in his first three seasons.

The shot volume is up to 17.6 field goal attempts per game, and that's a bit scary for the under.

However, he's got a 56.5% effective field goal percentage (up from 54.2% entering the year), and his three-point percentage is 43.5% this year (up from 38.5% entering this year).

Luka Doncic Over 8.5 Rebounds (-125)​

numberFire is projecting Luka Doncic for 8.8 rebounds tonight against the Toronto Raptors.

Though the Raptors are a good rebounding team, Doncic has averaged 8.9 rebounds per game and 0.24 boards per minute this season, which is about his career rate but down from 0.26 a year ago.

DARKO's data has Doncic's underlying rebounding rate in the middle there at 0.25. In 36.76 minutes, that'd get him to 9.2 projected rebounds.

Notably, Doncic can see his minutes extend in certain games, and before outings of 5 and 3 rebounds, he put up 9, 7, 11, 11, and 16 through his first five games.

 

[MAGAking1]

Adams is a rebounding machine.......

LeBron James to record 8+ assists (+118)​

LeBron James’s shooting has been down for the last couple of games, but his assist numbers have been consistent in the 8 games he’s played so far. Rumor has it he’s been dealing with an illness over the past couple of games, which wouldn’t surprise me as he’s missed all 12 threes taken in the last 2 games while shooting just 38% from the field. He’s still getting his teammates involved though, in the 3 games against Denver, New Orleans and Utah he had 8 assists and over the course of the season he’s got to 8 in 6 of 8 games played.


LeBron has played 18 games against his former team in his career and is averaging 7.1 assists per game. If we look at the 4 most recent meetings he’s averaging 8.5 per game while dishing out 8 or more in 3 of those games. The Lakers like to push the tempo, they are among the fastest team in the league right now, averaging 105.2 possessions per game which ranks them 3rd in the NBA. With the way Matt Ryan, Lonnie Walker Jr. and Russell Westbrook have been playing lately, there should be plenty of opportunities for LeBron to get his teammates involved.

Steven Adams over 9.5 rebounds (-148)​

The only thing I can think of that could keep Steven Adams from reaching 10 rebounds in tonight’s game is if he forgets to show up to the arena in time. He’s been very active on the boards for Memphis over the last 6 games going into double digits in 5 of them. He’s coming off a season-high 19 rebounds in the blowout win over Charlotte on Friday and it took him just 22 minutes to get there. Tonight he matches up with Kristaps Porzingis down low and the Latvian is no match for him physically, so it shouldn’t take him long to get to 10 rebounds. Against the Wizards he’s got to 10 rebounds in 4 of the last 5 meetings. The last time he played them in January he had 15 in just 29 minutes of play. Memphis currently ranks 3rd in the NBA in team rebounds per game averaging 57.6 a night and Adams is the biggest reason they are this good. Expect him to deliver tonight.

 

[MAGAking1]

interesting free contest from Fanduel, pick 7 props
50k prize pool

Im guessing that there will be 75,000 entries.....600 winners will go 7/7.......and get about $83 dollars each

 

[MAGAking1]

A few ideas from Thunder Dan, he didnt have time to write anything up

 

[MAGAking1]

3 prop plays for Thursday

Joel Embiid Over 28.5 Points (-120)​

Joel Embiid's averaging 28.0 points per game across 34.8 minutes, but his workload is partially dependent on the status of James Harden.

Harden is out for tonight, and without Harden on the floor this season, Embiid has had a 35.4% usage rate and has scored 0.79 points per minute, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ.

numberFire's model is projecting Embiid for 29.4 points in 36.85 minutes. At that minutes projection and his current scoring rate without Harden, he'd score 29.1 points.

The Atlanta Hawks are just an average defense by defensive rating, and they're below average in points per game allowed to centers, so Embiid could see an efficiency uptick in this spot.

Terry Rozier Under 22.5 Points (-125)​

The Charlotte Hornets are shorthanded on Thursday. They're still without LaMelo Ball but also list Gordon Hayward and Cody Martin as out.

Without them on the floor, Terry Rozier's usage rate is a hefty 28.7%, but he averages only 0.59 points per minute. That points-per-minute rate is what's obviously in question here.

At Rozier's projected minutes (32.73), that works out to only 19.3 points, and numberFire's model is actually projecting only 17.5 points for Rozier early in the day.

At the higher projection (19.3) of the two, we should consider Rozier around 75.0% likely to stay under this mark against the top-12 defense of the Miami Heat.

Kyle Kuzma Under 1.5 Three-Point Makes (+116)​

Kyle Kuzma has averaged 1.9 makes on 5.7 attempts this season from beyond the arc and is shooting 33.3% from deep. He's a career 33.9% shooter, so that's about on par with expectation.

But the volume might be harder to find tonight against the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas has allowed just 28.5 three-point attempts per game, a league-low by a full attempt and around 5.5 shy of the NBA average.

Kuzma is projected for 1.6 threes by numberFire's model, and with +116 odds on the under, we can back the under and hope that he returns a sixth game this season with zero or one treys.

 

[MAGAking1]

Paul George Over 4.5 Assists (-102)​

The main path to an under for Paul George's assists is just the general pace of the Los Angeles Clippers' game against the Dallas Mavericks, who are the NBA's slowest team. It's a low total as a result.

numberFire's model, though, is projecting George for 5.3 assists across 35.26 minutes (0.150 per minute). The underlying data from DARKO thinks that George should hold an assist-per-minute rate of 0.143.

At that minutes projection, George would go for 5.0 assists still.

Nicolas Claxton Under 9.5 Rebounds (-108)​

Although Nicolas Claxton draws a good rebounding matchup against the Sacramento Kings (23rd in rebounding rate at 48.9%), his rebounding prop is still quite high.

numberFire's model projects Claxton for just 8.2 rebounds tonight, down from his season average of 9.1 per game.

Part of it, for me, is that Claxton is overperforming on the glass.

He has averaged 0.330 rebounds per minute; however, the underlying data from DARKO implies he should be sitting at just 0.301 per minute.

Across his 27.86 projected minutes, that's a gap of 9.2 and 8.4 Either way, both are below the prop, and if he performs at expectation, then expectations are even lower.

Damian Lillard Over 6.5 Assists (+102)​

Let's run through a similar exercise with Damian Lillard's assist total as we did with George's.

Lillard is projected for 6.9 assists in 35.38 minutes. His DARKO rate for assists per minute is a 0.186, totaling 6.6 assists.

But the caveat here is that the San Antonio Spurs allow a league-high 119.7 points and 28.1 assists per game.

Lillard has averaged just 6.0 assists per game while seeing worse-than-expected assist-per-minute numbers (0.170).

He's averaging 7.6 adjusted assists per game, too, so we should generally see his assist conversion numbers tick up soon.

 

[MAGAking1]

D'Angelo Russell Over 2.5 Made Threes (+106)​

D'Angelo Russell is due for an uptick in both his three-point percentage and his three-point attempt rate.

For the year, Russell owns a 46.9% three-point attempt rate. DARKO has him at an expected 49.6% three-point attempt rate. He's made just 32.9% of his three-pointers this season, his lowest clip since 2017. That's due to rebound as DARKO projects him to make 36.3% of his threes.

Russell went 4 for 5 from deep last time out, and he a great matchup tonight to have another good night from three. He's facing an Orlando Magic team that gives up a 43.1% three-point attempt rate, the third-highest. Orlando has been especially generous to point guards, surrendering 10.3 three-point tries per game to the position, the most in the league.

Our model projects Russell to make 2.7 threes on 7.9 attempts on Wednesday. With a +106 price on the over, that's the side I want to be on.

Dejounte Murray Under 1.5 Made Threes (+104)​

On Monday, Dejounte Murray was facing a Milwaukee Bucks defense that doesn't give up many three-point attempts, and we cashed the under on his made threes prop. Today, Murray will see another defense that limits three-point shots, and we can attack the under on his made threes prop once more -- this time getting it at an even better price.

Murray is taking on the Boston Celtics. Boston is allowing a 35.4% three-point attempt rate, the fifth-lowest. The Celtics (18th in pace) are also a pace-down spot for the Hawks (6th).

As we laid out Monday, Murray just doesn't shoot much from beyond the arc. He hasn't taken more than five threes in a game in any of his previous four outings, and he's hit only three total treys in that span. It's not like he's due to start taking more threes, either, as his season-long three-point attempt rate of 30.3% is right in line with the 29.4% mark projected by DARKO.

We project Murray to nail 1.7 threes on 5.2 tries versus Boston. Given this prop's pricing -- +104 on the under and -132 on the over -- the under makes more sense.

Myles Turner Under 8.5 Rebonds (-104)​

Myles Turner is averaging 8.7 boards per game this season, and over the past three games, he's pulled down an average of 11.0 rebounds per night. So why should you take the under at a line of 8.5 rebounds?

Turner isn't likely to keep rebounding at the clip he has been. Turner is snagging 14.5 rebounds per 100 possessions this season. For his career, he's at 11.5 rebounds per 100 possessions, and he was at 11.8 a campaign ago. DARKO projects him to be at 12.6 boards per 100 possessions this year. While Turner's rebound chances have gone up sans Domantas Sabonis -- 15.0 rebound chances per game in 2022-23, compared to 13.3 last season -- he's still due for some negative regression on the glass.

Turner is up against the Charlotte Hornets tonight. Charlotte (17th in pace) is a slow-down spot for the fast-paced Indiana Pacers (3rd). The Hornets are also giving up the 10th-fewest rebounds per night to power forwards (9.5), a position Turner is playing more of with Jalen Smith in the fold.

Our algorithm has Turner finishing with 7.7 rebounds in this one.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for your consideration , Thur 11/17

De'Aaron Fox Over 25.5 Points (-106)​

De'Aaron Fox and the Sacramento Kings are up against the San Antonio Spurs tonight, and the Kings get this one at home.

The Spurs rank 30th in points per game allowed (119.5) and are letting up around 6.2 points above the league's median output. As far as non-garbage-time defensive rating goes, the Spurs are 29th (117.5 with the average being 112.7).

That's a boost to Fox's expected points output.

Fox has a projection of 26.7 points by numberFire's model, and that makes him around 56.7% likely to go over, meaning the over odds should be roughly -130.

Keldon Johnson Over 5.5 Rebounds (+102)​

With a rebounding projection of 6.1 for Keldon Johnson, it's not a surprise that I'm looking at the over here at 5.5. That's especially true at plus-money odds (+102).

Johnson is securing 0.150 rebounds per minute this season; according to his underlying data via DARKO, Johnson's per-minute rebounding number should actually be 0.161.

At the projected rate of 6.1 rebounds (numberFire's expectation), we can consider Johnson to be 55.2% likely to go over, implying odds on the over should be around -123 rather than plus money.

The prop itself is efficient at 5.5, but the odds seem to be a bit off here.

Josh Hart Over 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-108)​

I guess I'm feeling good to go with three overs, but here we are. Or, that's where the value seems to be, at least.

Josh Hart is being projected for 9.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists tonight by numberFire: a total of 21.9 points, rebounds, and assists.

Hart is drastically underperforming his scoring potential by shooting just 30.4% from deep this season. DARKO's data thinks he should be at 33.5%. His points-per-minute rate (0.239) should be 0.317 if we let the data do the talking.

It's worth noting that he's projected for 9.7 points and that his points prop (9.5) has +102 odds on the over, as well.

 

[MAGAking1]

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 4.5 Rebounds (-118)​

Our model projects Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for 5.0 rebounds in 35.28 minutes of action in tonight's matchup.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will face the Memphis Grizzlies as road underdogs, but the Grizzlies are without Desmond Bane.

Without Bane, the Grizzlies have a poor offensive rating of just 106.3 along with a three-point percentage of 32.7%. Their effective field goal percentage is only 50.3%, as well.

That means we should get a few more bricks and rebound opportunities for Gilgeous-Alexander.

Giannis Antetokoumpo Under 45.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-104)​

A big driving force for the under here is the number of projected points (24.3) by numberFire for Giannis Antetokounmpo.

That's pretty low (his points prop is 29.5).

But it's not like the model doesn't like Giannis overall. He's projected for 11.1 rebounds (his prop is 11.5), and it actually thinks he'll outperform (6.0) his assists prop (5.5).

The scoring is just expected to be down against a well-rested Philadelphia 76ers defense. The 76ers haven't played since Sunday.

While we can go with the under on his points, the under odds are -122. So, if we go this points-rebounds-assists route, we have better odds.

Al Horford Over 2.5 Assists (-120)​

Al Horford and the Boston Celtics are in a high-totaled (230.0) game against the New Orleans Pelicans, and numberFire's model thinks that Horford's assist prop is too low.

He's projected for 3.5 helpers despite a season average of 2.4. He averaged 3.4 last year, and he likely should see better numbers soon.

Horford has generated only 0.08 assists per minute on the year, but he's been at 0.12 or higher in six straight seasons, including last year with the Celtics. The underlying data suggests an uptick

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Sat

The Toronto Raptors are walking wounded right now as they head into Atlanta with both superstar forward Pascal Siakam and guard Gary Trent Jr. sidelined by injuries. Three of their top bench players are also banged up, which means Fred VanVleet, O.G. Anunoby, and Scottie Barnes will be glued to the floor.


VanVleet is the most ball-dominant player out of that trio, and he's been on fire this month. In his last five games, he's averaging 25.4 points per game on 43/43/81 shooting splits. He's also been averaging 20 field goal attempts per game over that span — including a whopping 11.2 attempts per game from long range.


The Hawks play at the sixth-fastest pace in the league and surrender 113.9 ppg. That should give VanVleet lots of opportunity to surpass his points total of 22.5.


Fred VanVleet Prop: Over 22.5 points (-110)


The Sixers are another team that's extremely banged up, with guard Tyrese Maxey likely out of action today after leaving last night's contest with a foot injury. James Harden was already sidelined until early December, and Tobias Harris missed last night's game and is listed as questionable for today.


That means Joel Embiid will have to continue to carry the offense, but while their superstar center is filling up the hoop and dishing out assists (38.4 ppg and 5.8 assists per game in five games this month), he hasn't been as dominant on the glass.


Embiid is averaging 10.2 rebounds per game this season which is a solid number but significantly lower than the O/U of 12.5 on his rebounds total today. With Embiid continuing to look for his own shot, he won't be able to focus on the glass tonight. Even when he does go for boards, he'll be battling Rudy Gobert and Karl Anthony Towns.


With Embiid grabbing 11 or fewer rebounds in seven of his last eight games, take the Under on his rebounds total.


Joel Embiid Prop: Under 12.5 rebounds (-190)


The Utah Jazz have been the biggest surprise in the NBA, currently second in the Western Conference with an 11-6 record. Tonight they take on the team with the best record in the conference in the Portland Trail Blazers, who are 10-5.


Although the Jazz have been shockingly efficient on offense, they've been below-average on the defensive end of the floor, where they rank 18th in the league with 114.2 ppg allowed. That should mean a strong offensive game for Blazers guard Anfernee Simons tonight.


Simons broke out last season when Damian Lillard was sidelined by an injury, and with Dame back on the floor this season, the two are building excellent chemistry. Simons has averaged 24.9 ppg in his last eight games while taking at least 20 field goal attempts in five of those contests.


Meanwhile, Lillard has become more of a facilitator over the last week, racking up more than 10 assists in three-straight contests. With the O/U on Simons' points total set at 20.5 (a number he has eclipsed in seven of his last eight games), I'm hammering the Over.


Anfernee Simons Prop: Over 20.5 points (-120)

 

[MAGAking1]

Three for Tue Nov 22

De'Anthony Melton Over 5.5 Rebounds (-130)​

The Philadelphia 76ers will be without James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid. It should lead to a busy night for De'Anthony Melton, and I think this prop is one way to take advantage of it.

Melton is already logging big minutes, playing 36 minutes in two straight. He's been active on the glass, too, totaling at least six boards in four of his last five games.

The matchup with the Brooklyn Nets should help. Brooklyn is 29th in rebound rate this year, better than only one team -- the Sixers. The Nets also allow the third-most rebounds per game to backcourts (13.4). There should be boards up for grabs, and Melton is going to get a ton of minutes.

We project Melton to pull down 6.7 rebounds, and the over is the side I'll be on.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 20.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-113)​

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has a nice matchup today against the Detroit Pistons.

Detroit ranks second-worst in defensive rating, and the Pistons (13th in pace) are a slight pace-up opponent for the Denver Nuggets (17th). The Pistons are giving up the fourth-most rebounds per night to shooting guards (7.1), and they're also allowing the 10th-most made threes per game to the position -- which sets up well for KCP, who is on fire from three so far this season (51.4%).

We project Caldwell-Pope to total 15.3 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists. That's 21.7 combined points, boards and dimes. KCP's point total is where we differ most from the betting market, so if you want, you can just take him to go over 13.5 points (-115) instead.

Mikal Bridges Over 1.5 Made Threes (+132)​

Mikal Bridges has hit multiple treys in just one of his past four games. But there are reasons to back him to do it tonight versus the Los Angeles Lakers.

Prior to said recent stretch, Bridges had made at least two triples in five of his last eight games. He's also due to take more threes. His three-point attempt rate is only 28.4%. It was 36.4% a year ago, and it's at 43.1% for Bridges' career. DARKO has him with an expected three-point attempt rate of 30.3% this season.

While LA is a solid defensive team and doesn't permit a lot of three-point tries overall, small forward is the one position where they do give up a hefty amount of looks from beyond the arc, allowing the sixth-most three-point tries per game to the position (8.6).

Admittedly, our projections think this line is spot on as we peg Bridges to make 1.5 threes today on 4.1 attempts. But the pricing pushes me to the over. The over is worth a roll of the dice.

 

[MAGAking1]

With a loaded 12-game slate Wednesday, there are plenty of choices for bettors when it comes to player props in the NBA. Here’s a few we like for the day’s games with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Luka Doncic over 7.5 assists vs. Celtics (+110)​

Doncic has been averaging 8.1 assists per game this season and has gone over this line in the last two contests. The Celtics might key in on the Dallas guard, forcing him to move the ball around more than usual. At plus money, this is one of the best props on the board.

Kevin Huerter over 3.5 3-pointers vs. Hawks (+135)​

Huerter gets to face his former team Wednesday and he’s on fire from behind the arc. The guard has shot 50% from deep on 118 total attempts, so this isn’t as small of a sample size as people might think. He’s hit the over on this line in the last two games, and five of the last six. The revenge game narrative is strong, so back Huerter to hit 4+ triples here.

Stephen Curry over 40.5 points + rebounds + assists vs. Clippers (-110)​

Curry is averaging 32.3 points per game, so this is a bit low on the PRA line. Even with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard out, the Warriors will want to make a statement against the team many feel are their biggest competition this season. That starts with Curry, who has been the lone consistent presence in Golden State’s offense this year. He should be able to easily cross this threshold, even if this game turns into a blowout.