NBA Prop Bets===Master Thread

[MAGAking1]

3 for Friday

CJ McCollum Over 6.5 Assists (+100)​

The New Orleans Pelicans are visiting the Houston Rockets where the over/under is 228.0 points, and this game has plenty of props to consider.
Both teams are in the league's top 15 in offensive pace this season, and it won't be a surprise to see some back-and-forth scoring in this game. We want to find a player prop that correlates with that potential game script, and that leads us to C.J. McCollum with over 6.5 assists at even money.
The starting point guard for the Pelicans has been over this 6.5 mark in three of his last five games, with his two most recent outings up at 9 and 11 assists. He's the primary distributor on offense for the Pelicans, and we should see that on full display tonight given the favorable matchup.
The Rockets have struggled all season on defense and are allowing 9.35 assists per game to opposing point guards, which is the second-worst in the league. A strong role, good consistency, and a favorable matchup should push McCollum over his prop tonight.

Jaren Jackson Over 7.5 Rebounds (-113)​

With a juicy 234.5-point over/under, the Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs matchup is a spot to target tonight.
While the Spurs have a rich history of being a solid defensive team under coach Gregg Popovich, this season couldn't be further from that. They are allowing a league-worst 122.1 points per game to their opponents and provide no resistance of any kind.
They are particularly weak against opposing big men, which presents Jaren Jackson Jr. with a great matchup. When it comes to opposing power forwards, the Spurs are allowing the second-most (10.96) rebounds per game to them.
That will play right into the hands of Jackson, who has been over his 7.5 mark in three of his last five games.
A high-scoring and high-paced matchup will offer plenty of chances for Jackson to pile up the rebounds.

Jusuf Nurkic Under 8.5 Rebounds (-115)​

Finally, let's look at Jusuf Nurkic and under 8.5 rebounds tonight.
Nurkic has been dealing with injuries for most of the season and recently returned to action in what is clearly a limited role. He's been back on the court in the last four games but has only played 17, 25, 10, and 28 minutes. A limited role puts him in a very tough spot when it comes to piling up the stats and should lead us to unders.
In these recent four games, Nurkic has been over this prop only one time, which is not the level of consistency we are looking for. The matchup isn't an ideal one, either, as both the Boston Celtics and the Portland Trail Blazers are in the bottom half of the league in offensive pace.
This is shaping up to be a slower-paced game. Combine that with the limited minutes for Nurkic, and it leads to under 8.5 rebounds tonight.

 

[MAGAking1]

 

[MAGAking1]

2 props for Monday

Stephen Curry Over 4.5 Made Threes (-106)​

Stephen Curry has a dream matchup tonight to rain in threes.

The Golden State Warriors are playing at the Houston Rockets. Houston has allowed gobs of three-point tries all season, and things have been no different of late as they've given up the league's second-highest three-point attempt rate across the past 15 games (44.4%). For the year, they've surrendered a league-high 9.9 three-point attempts per night to point guards.

Curry usually doesn't need much of an invitation to fire away. He's put up at least 13 three-point shots three times over the past five games, and he's torched the Rockets this campaign, going 7 for 14 and 8 of 17 from three in two previous meetings with Houston this season.

Blowout risk is a legit concern with Golden State a 10.5-point favorite. However, given the Warriors' road struggles, the Rockets should be able to keep it fairly competitive.

Our model projects Curry to go 5.1 for 12.9 from three tonight. Getting this at close to plus-money looks like a really nice deal.

Nikola Vucevic Under 16.5 Points (-110)​

Nikola Vucevic draws a difficult matchup today against Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers.

Philly has been stingy against bigs this year. For the season, centers are scoring just 19.9 points per game versus the 76ers, the third-fewest. The Sixers give up only 13.8 shots per game to the position, tied for the sixth-fewest.

Vucevic has been on a tear of late, scoring at least 17 points in four of his last five outings. But before that run, he'd netted 16 or fewer points in five of six games.

We project Vucevic to score 16.2 points on Monday, a tick under this line.

 

[MAGAking1]

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[MAGAking1]

2 for Tue

Mikal Bridges Under 2.5 Made Threes (-128)​

Since coming to the Brooklyn Nets, Mikal Bridges has seen an across-the-board boost in his numbers, but I think there are a few reasons to be into the under on his made threes prop today.

While Bridges has made an average of 2.7 triples per game in 16 contests with the Nets, he's going to have a hard time sustaining his current clip of 43.9% shooting from deep. He made 38.7% of his threes with the Phoenix Suns this year and was a 40.1% three-point shooter last season.

He's got a tough matchup today against the Cleveland Cavaliers. In the past 15 games, the Cavs have the fifth-best defensive rating and are playing at the third-slowest pace. For the year, Cleveland is allowing the fewest three-point tries per night to small forwards (6.3).

Our model projects Bridges to make 2.0 of 5.0 from three on Tuesday night.

Tre Jones Over 12.5 Points (-112)​

The San Antonio Spurs are missing lots of dudes. Keldon Johnson, Charles Bassey, Devin Vassell, Zach Collins and Jeremy Sochan are all out, and Devonte' Graham is listed as questionable.

With that many absences, the Spurs are a tricky team to project tonight in their matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans. That could work in our favor, and our model sees some value on Tre Jones' points prop.

With all of the confirmed absences off the floor this season, Jones owns a team-leading 27.2% usage rate and is netting 25.8 points per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ, although the sample is only 73.8 minutes.

Over the past 13 games, the Pels are surrendering the 13th-most points per night to point guards (25.1).

We have Jones scoring 13.7 points in 30.1 minutes versus New Orleans.

 

[MAGAking1]

2 for Thur

Wendell Carter Over 8.5 Rebounds (-136)​

Wendell Carter Jr. has pulled down nine-plus rebounds in 10 of his last 11 games, so for this line to be at 8.5 boards, Carter must have a brutal matchup for rebounds.

He does.

He's facing the New York Knicks, a team that is tied for second in rebound rate for the season (52.0%) and a squad that has held the center position to 12.3 rebounds per night over the last 15 games, the fourth-fewest in that span.

But with how active Carter has been on the glass of late, I think he can get to this over despite the matchup.

Our model agrees, pegging Carter to snag 10.6 rebounds.

Russell Westbrook Over 6.5 Rebounds (-115)​

With Paul George out, Russell Westbrook should have to up his game in all areas for the Los Angeles Clippers. While most of his props reflect that, I think there's some value in the over on Westbrook's rebounding prop.

Over the past five games, Westbrook is averaging 7.8 rebounds per night, and that's with PG13 -- and George's 5.8 boards per game over the last five -- in the lineup. Westbrook just snagged eight boards against the Oklahoma City Thunder last time out, and he will see OKC again today.

The Thunder have permitted the fifth-most rebounds per game to point guards over the last 15 games (7.2).

Russ has played at least 33 minutes in two of his last three games, and minutes shouldn't be an issue today with LA short-handed.

We project Westbrook for 6.5 rebounds, right at this line, but I think we may be selling him a bit short.

I don't mind Westbrook over 32.5 total points, rebounds and assists (-113). OKC is also in the top 10 for most points and assists surrendered to point guards over the last 15.

 

[MAGAking1]

A trio for Friday

Kristaps Porzingis Over 36.5 Points + Assists (-108)​

Kristaps Porzingis has a dream matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, and he gets to face them with both Kyle Kuzma and Bradley Beal on the sidelines.

In tonight's floor condition, Porzingis boasts a massive 39.4% usage rate, per CourtIQ. No one else on the Washington Wizards owns a usage rate north of 23.8% in the split. In addition to the gaudy usage, Porzingis produces 33.2 points and 10.1 rebounds per 36 minutes in the split.

So, yeah, it's going to be the Porzingis show tonight, and he could go nuts in this cakewalk matchup.

San Antonio is 21st in defensive rating over the last 10 games and is playing at the 4th-fastest pace in that time. Across the past 15 games, the Spurs are giving up the fifth-most points (26.6) and the most rebounds (12.0) to power forwards.

All that leads me to this over.

We project Porzingis to play 34.1 minutes and put up 27.5 points and 9.4 boards -- a total of 36.9 points plus rebounds. That barely clears this line, but I'm higher on him than our numbers are.

Given our projections, I don't hate taking Porzingis to double-double at +165, but I prefer the points/rebounds total rather than relying on KP to get 10-plus rebounds.

Troy Brown Jr. Under 7.5 Points (-118)​

Troy Brown Jr. has a stiff challenge in front of him tonight against Lu Dort and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Largely thanks to Dort's lights-out defense, OKC has limited the small forward position to the seventh-fewest points per game over the last 15 games (19.1).

Brown usually doesn't do much on offense anyway, averaging 7.3 points per night for the year and taking five or fewer shots in three of his previous five outings. He hasn't taken a free throw in four of those last five, so this will likely come down to whether or not Brown can hit from three.

I'm banking on him missing from the outside and am taking this under.

Domantas Sabonis to Record a Triple-Double (+230)​

Tonight's Sacramento Kings-Phoenix Suns matchup could be a track meet. The total is 239.0 points, and the spread is 3.5.

The game environment is one of the big reasons I'm into Domantas Sabonis to triple-double, but that's not the only reason.

He'll see a softer Suns interior defense with Deandre Ayton out, and Sabonis has already flirted with a triple-double in two of his three games against Phoenix this season -- missing it by one board in one game and by three assists in another.

With Sabonis at -850 to get a double-double and -850 to get at least 10 rebounds, assists will likely be the biggest hurdle tonight. His assists prop is set at 7.5 with -146 juice on the over, and the Suns have permitted the 13th-most assists per game to centers over the past 30 games (4.1).

Sabonis has been on an assists tear of late, dishing out 10-plus dimes in six of his last nine games.

We project Sabonis for 8.0 assists, and in what should be a high-scoring clash, I'm intrigued by this +230 price on Sabonis to triple-double.

 

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[MAGAking1]

3 for Monday

Jevon Carter Over 3.5 Assists (+110)​

The Milwaukee Bucks will be missing Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday tonight against the Detroit Pistons. That should thrust Jevon Carter into a starting role and put the ball in his hands a lot more than it usually is.

With those two off the floor this season, Carter has dished out 6.0 assists per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ, so that checks out.

The matchup is there, too. Over the last 15 games, Detroit has allowed 9.5 assists per game to point guards, the sixth-most in that span.

The big worry is blowout risk. Even without Giannis and Holiday, Milwaukee is still a 13.0-point favorite.

Owners of a 121.5-point implied total, Milwaukee is going to put up a lot of points, so even if it winds up being a blowout, Carter can cash this over. If the game stays competitive, he should push for around 30 minutes and could soar past this prop.

I would be willing to swallow some juice to take the over at a line of 3.5 assists, so I absolutely love the chance to get it at plus-money.

Jabari Smith Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-106)​

Jabari Smith has gone over 20.5 combined points and boards in three of his past four games. We project him to do it again today in a clash with the New York Knicks.

Smith has been good in the second half of the year, and he's seen at least 29 minutes in 11 consecutive games. He's averaging 21.8 points plus rebounds -- 14.6 points and 7.2 boards -- in 17 games since the All-Star break.

Our model projects him to score 13.6 points and pull down 8.0 rebounds (21.6 total) tonight, and the over is the side I'll be on.

Devin Booker Under 5.5 Assists (-110)​

Devin Booker has totaled five or fewer assists in seven straight games. Couple that with his matchup, and I'm into the under on Booker's assists prop.

He's up against the Utah Jazz. Over the past seven contests, Utah has given up the sixth-fewest assists per night to shooting guards (3.8).

In 18 games since coming back from injury, Booker is averaging 5.3 assists, and he's at 5.7 assists per 36 minutes this year in what's expected to be tonight's floor condition, per CourtIQ.

We project Booker to record 4.9 assists on Monday.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 Taco Tuesday props

Jaylen Brown Over 5.5 Rebounds (-133)​

Jaylen Brown has been getting busy on the glass lately.

He's tallied 20 total rebounds across his last two games. Brown -- who is averaging 7.0 rebounds per game for the season -- has gone for at least six boards in four of his past six outings, and he should be able to keep things going against the Washington Wizards.

Over the past 15 games, Washington is giving up the eighth-most rebounds per night to shooting guards (6.5).

Our model projects Brown to pull down 6.5 rebounds on Tuesday. While there's certainly some blowout risk with this game -- the Boston Celtics are 11.5-point favorites -- Brown is capable of cashing this even if he gets less than his usual run.

Clint Capela Under 23.5 Points + Rebounds (-118)​

Clint Capela gets a brutal matchup tonight against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and that has me looking at this under.

In the last 30 games, Cleveland has held centers to the third-fewest points (20.1), and the Cavs (27th in pace over the last 15) are a huge pace-down spot for the Atlanta Hawks (4th).

Capela has played Cleveland twice this year. In the first meeting, he scored 4 points and snagged 12 boards. In the most recent game, he totaled 10 points and 4 rebounds. He hasn't yet been close to this line.

Even though Capela may get to face a Jarrett Allen-less Cavs interior today since Allen is questionable, I still like this under. We project Capela for 10.8 points and 11.1 rebounds -- 21.9 total.

Jaylin Williams Over 5.5 Rebounds (-138)​

The Charlotte Hornets have really struggled on the glass this season, and that should lead to a fruitful rebounding night for Jaylin Williams.

Charlotte has been better rebounding-wise since shifting to Mark Williams at center, but they're still just 22nd in rebound rate across the last 15 games. During that time, Charlotte has given up the fifth-most rebounds per game to the center position (16.0).

Oh, and Mark Williams is out today.

It should be all systems go for Jaylin Williams when a shot comes off the rim.

Our algorithm has Jaylin projected for 6.7 rebounds.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for WED

Tyler Herro over 19.5 points vs. New York Knicks (-120)​

Herro has been inconsistent this season, but has played well as of late. He has gone over this total in three straight games. The Heat have matched up with the Knicks three times and Herro has gone over the total in all three matchups. Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry are banged up and could miss tonight’s game. This is my favorite play of the night.

Chris Paul over 12.5 points vs. Timberwolves (+105)​

Paul is not a big scorer, but he has a great matchup tonight. The Timberwolves allow 26 points per game to point guards, which is the fourth most in the NBA. Kevin Durant is back tonight, so he will take some of Paul’s shots but he will likely be on a minutes restriction and the Timberwolves will be going all out to stop him. That leaves Paul to score some easy baskets.

Spencer Dinwiddie over 27.5 points + assists vs. Houston Rockets (-125)​

Since being traded to the Brooklyn Nets, Dinwiddie has taken on a much bigger role. He is the lead guard and puts up big numbers most nights. He’s coming off one of his worst games of the season where he had just two points and five assists. He’s facing there Rockets, who allow the most points and assists to point guards in the NBA at 38 combined per game.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 more props for Wed

Cam Johnson Over 2.5 Made Threes (+112)​

Cam Johnson is up against the Houston Rockets today, and it's a great spot for him to get cooking from deep.


The Rockets are miserable defensively, sitting dead last in defensive rating across the past 15 games, and they've given up the second-highest three-point attempt rate in that stretch.

Johnson has always been a sharpshooter, and he's taking 6.7 three-pointers per night since being dealt to the Brooklyn Nets, a rise of 0.9 from his time with the Phoenix Suns this year. He just went 5 for 8 from three in a game against the Miami Heat, another team that permits a lot of three-point tries.

Our algorithm projects Johnson to shoot 3.5 for 8.5 from deep tonight. This is a great prop to lock in.

Alperen Sengun Over 8.5 Rebounds (+108)​

This is another plus-money over I'm into in the Nets-Rockets matchup.

Alperen Sengun can feast on the glass in this one.

Over the last 15 games, no team in the league is surrendering more rebounds per night to the center position than the Nets are (17.6). It's been a season-long issue for Brooklyn, as they've given up the second-most boards per game to centers for the year (16.2).

Sengun is averaging 8.6 rebounds per game on the season, and he's played at least 30 minutes in 8 of his last 10 outings.

We project Sengun for 8.8 rebounds tonight. That's pretty much right at this line, but with the plus-money on the over, that's the side I want to be on.

Josh Giddey to Record a Triple-Double (+500)​

This one is a bit of a long shot, which is why it's priced at +500, but I think Josh Giddey can do it.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out again for the Oklahoma City Thunder, and that's a boost for Giddey, who averages 18.6 points, 8.7 assists and 7.8 rebounds per 36 minutes sans SGA this season, according to CourtIQ.

Giddey just went off for 31 points, 10 boards and 9 dimes last night with SGA out. He's snagged double-digit rebounds in three straight. Assists will likely be the biggest hurdle to a Giddy trip-doub, but the matchup can help.

OKC is hosting the Detroit Pistons, a team that checks in 20th in defensive rating across the last 15 games. Detroit has allowed at least 112 points in six consecutive games, including 129 and 126 in two of their last three.

We have Giddey totaling 19.3 points, 8.4 rebounds and 7.3 assists. There's upside for more given the matchup and SGA's absence.

 

[MAGAking1]

A pair of props for Thursday

Al Horford Over 5.5 Rebounds (-124)​

The Boston Celtics are visiting the Milwaukee Bucks in a matchup of the top two teams in the Eastern Conference.

These teams are separated by just three games in the standings, and this could very well be a preview of things to come in the playoffs. With that background established, this game being a playoff-type environment wouldn't be a surprise. What does that mean? It has me leaning with under 237.0 total points and can point us to some player props.

The under means tighter defense and more missed shots. More missed shots mean more rebounds, which means we want to look at Al Horford over 5.5 rebounds tonight.

He's been over this mark in two of his last four games and should be able to hit that given the matchup tonight. This season, the Bucks are allowing opponents to rack up 52.3 rebounds per game, which is 19th in the league. That's nothing to write home about, but given the game script I'm anticipating, this should put Horford in a great spot.

numberFire's projections have Horford going for 6.8 rebounds, putting him over his prop.

Malcolm Brogdon Under 1.5 Made Threes (+100)​

Another prop that correlates with the under in this game is Malcolm Brogdon under 1.5 made threes at even money.

This is a rather straightforward bet, and we're getting it at great odds. Brogdon is an okay three-point shooter -- as is shown by him hitting the under on this prop in 6 of his last 10 games. He's averaging just 2.0 made threes per game this season, so it's not as if he's flying over this mark on a consistent basis -- or anything close.

When it comes to the Bucks, they are allowing 11.9 made threes from their opponents per game, which is the seventh-lowest in the league. They are also strong against the point-guard position specifically, where they also allow the seventh-fewest to the position.

With Jrue Holiday on the other side, we don't often see opposing guards racking up the threes, which should be the case yet again tonight.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Friday

Dorian Finney-Smith Over 4.5 Rebounds (-106)​

The Brooklyn Nets are hosting the Atlanta Hawks featuring a massive 240.5 over/under.

This is one of the highest totals on the board, and we should see plenty of back-and-forth action, which will put several players in great spots for production. We turn to Dorian Finney-Smith for his rebounding prop of 4.5, and I'm going with the over.

The Nets (21st) are in a solid pace-up spot because the Hawks are the ninth-fastest team in the league, giving us plenty of possessions -- and rebounds -- for Finney-Smith.

Getting rebounds is something he has been consistent with, as he has been over this 4.5 mark in four of his last five games. That should be able to continue tonight because the Hawks are allowing 10.57 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards, which is the fifth-worst in the league.

Finney-Smith has a good matchup and an elite game environment to continue this trend.

Keegan Murray Over 2.5 Made Threes (-108)​

Keegan Murray is legitimately setting NBA records.

Murray has set the record for the most (188) three-pointers made by a rookie in NBA history. If that is the case, we have to go to over 2.5 made threes; there's no other choice. Murray has been over this mark in seven of his last 10 games, and with a matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers on tap, he shouldn't be slowing down.

For the season, Portland allows 12.3 made threes from their opponents per game, which is 15th in the league. However, we have seen that number climb to 14.0 per game over their last three games, which is the eighth-worst in the league. The Trail Blazers are rolling out a B-team of players, and it's clearly showing.

Mitchell Robinson Under 9.5 Rebounds (-122)​

Finally, we're turning to under 9.5 rebounds for Mitchell Robinson.

The New York Knicks face a tough test tonight against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are one of the best defensive and rebounding teams in the league. To be exact, the Cavaliers are allowing 49.1 rebounds per game to their opponents, which is good for the third-fewest in the league.

Robinson has been under this mark in eight of his last 10 games, which doesn't inspire confidence that he could hit the over tonight in a tough matchup. numberFire's projections have Robinson going for 8.9 rebounds, putting him under his prop tonight.

 

[MAGAking1]

 

[indiana]

M/king 1..........BOL tonight buddy.........indy

 

[MAGAking1]

Been ice cold on these, but keep firing

 

[MAGAking1]

3 For Tue

Dejounte Murray Over 37.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-106)​

With Trae Young listed as out for the Atlanta Hawks, Dejounte Murray has a big opportunity tonight.

From here on out, every game is essentially a must-win game for Atlanta, which means there's no worry about a lack of minutes for Murray tonight. When Young is off the court the season, Murray sees a 3.0% increase in offensive usage rate, putting him up to a team-high 27.7% usage rate.

This is the ideal scenario for Murray between the extra usage and a very secure floor of minutes, which should allow him to hit over 37.5 points+rebounds+assists. If we look over his last five games, Murray has totaled 36, 31, 38, 24, and 34 points+rebounds+assists. Yes, he's only been over the 37.5 mark one time, but all of those games were with Young on the court.

He's getting close to that mark without the extra offensive usage and should be able to reach for the over given Young is out. The matchup against the Chicago Bulls has a solid 229.0-point over/under, along with a close 5.0-point spread, giving us one of the best game environments on the slate.

Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 Made Three Pointers (-120)​

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in the midst of a very close Eastern Conference playoff race, and that means full minutes for their starters.

When it comes to the hottest players in the league, Donovan Mitchell might be at the top of the list. He comes in with 40 points or more in each of his last four games and is doing everything he can to help the Cavs secure home-court advantage in the playoffs.

Over his last six games, he's hit at least three three-pointers in all six games while going over this 3.5 mark in four of them. When he's reaching for this type of ceiling every night, this feels like a prop he could hit by halftime.

When it comes to the matchup, he's up against the Orlando Magic, where we see a 4.5-point spread and a 222.0 game total. In terms of Orlando's defense, they have struggled this season against the deep ball to the tune of 12.9 made three-pointers allowed per game, which is the seventh-most in the league.

Dorian Finney-Smith Over 4.5 Rebounds (+106)​

Finally, let's go to over 4.5 rebounds for Dorian Finney-Smith.

The Brooklyn Nets are hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves with a 224.0-point total and a close 2.0-point spread. Both teams have the full motivation to play and win, which is exactly what we want to see at this point in the season.

Finney-Smith has done a solid job on the boards lately and has been over this 4.5 mark in four of his last five games. Despite Minnesota having a ton of size with Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert, they are still allowing opponents to rack up 53.4 total rebounds per game, which is the fifth-most in the league.

The close game environment should enable plenty of back-and-forth action for Finney-Smith to hit the over once again on this prop.