3 props for Friday
Tatum's expected to get 36.1 minutes of action, so the volume should be there.
Miami ranks around the NBA average in rebounds per game allowed but is just 23rd in rebounding rate. In two matchups with the Heat this year, Tatum has averaged 8.0 rebounds (5 back on October 21st but then 11 in the Boston Celtics' most recent game).
With Tatum a projection of 8.1 rebounds, we should consider him around 55.3% likely to go over, meaning over odds around -125.
That leaves behind an implied team total of 111.0 for the Lakers, who have averaged 113.1 points per game on the year.
As for LeBron James, he has averaged 6.3 assists per game but now is up against the team allowing the fewest assists per game (largely due to a top-three scoring defense).
James, though, in four matchups against other teams in the top 10 in fewest assists per game allowed has averaged 5.8 dimes, including 0.168 per minute. That would get him to 6.0 across his projected minutes workload.
Underlying data via DARKO suggests James should be averaging 0.179 assists per minute, leading to an expected projection of 6.3 assists at his anticipated minutes.
Ja and the Memphis Grizzlies host the Philadelphia 76ers, a team with a top-three defensive rating over the past two weeks.
In games against top-10 defenses, Morant, well, he has just two of them (both against the New Orleans Pelicans). That's pretty wild this deep into the season.
Removing games against bottom-10 defenses, Morant has averaged only 25.3 points over 32.1 minutes per game.
Jayson Tatum Over 7.5 Rebounds (-115)
Our model is projecting Jayson Tatum for 8.1 rebounds in his matchup against the Miami Heat.Tatum's expected to get 36.1 minutes of action, so the volume should be there.
Miami ranks around the NBA average in rebounds per game allowed but is just 23rd in rebounding rate. In two matchups with the Heat this year, Tatum has averaged 8.0 rebounds (5 back on October 21st but then 11 in the Boston Celtics' most recent game).
With Tatum a projection of 8.1 rebounds, we should consider him around 55.3% likely to go over, meaning over odds around -125.
LeBron James Over 5.5 Assists (-110)
The Los Angeles Lakers are up against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight, a game with a 230.5-point total but an 8.5-point spread in Milwaukee's favor.That leaves behind an implied team total of 111.0 for the Lakers, who have averaged 113.1 points per game on the year.
As for LeBron James, he has averaged 6.3 assists per game but now is up against the team allowing the fewest assists per game (largely due to a top-three scoring defense).
James, though, in four matchups against other teams in the top 10 in fewest assists per game allowed has averaged 5.8 dimes, including 0.168 per minute. That would get him to 6.0 across his projected minutes workload.
Underlying data via DARKO suggests James should be averaging 0.179 assists per minute, leading to an expected projection of 6.3 assists at his anticipated minutes.
Ja Morant Under 28.5 Points (-110)
Ja Morant has a projection of just 26.0 points via numberFire's model in this matchup, so obviously we're going with the under recommendation.Ja and the Memphis Grizzlies host the Philadelphia 76ers, a team with a top-three defensive rating over the past two weeks.
In games against top-10 defenses, Morant, well, he has just two of them (both against the New Orleans Pelicans). That's pretty wild this deep into the season.
Removing games against bottom-10 defenses, Morant has averaged only 25.3 points over 32.1 minutes per game.
3 for Saturday
Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert is coming off perhaps the worst rebounding performance of his career, pulling down just a single rebound in 26 minutes of action against Memphis on Wednesday.
That said, the three-time Defensive Player of the Year has been rebounding at an elite level for years and is coming off a season where he led the NBA with 14.7 rebounds per game.
Gobert has found it tough to coexist with fellow seven-footer Karl-Anthony Towns in Minnesota's frontcourt, but with Towns hitting the IL with a calf injury earlier this week, he has no excuse not to dominate inside.
The Thunder have the fourth-worst rebounding rate in the league and play at the sixth-fastest pace, so there should be plenty of rebounding opportunities for Gobert in this one. Expect the Stifle Tower to bounce back from a pathetic performance and go Over his rebounds total tonight.
Rudy Gobert Prop: Over 13.5 rebounds (-120)
The Blazers have lost seven of their last eight games as they head to Salt Lake City to take on the Jazz. A big reason for Portland's current slide has been the absence of All-Star point guard Damian Lillard, who has missed the last six games and isn't expected to suit up until tomorrow.
With Dame sidelined, Anfernee Simons has stepped up and continues to be one of the most promising young guards in the league. Although Simons can be a bit inconsistent with his shooting (he's been red-hot in three of his last six games and ice-cold in the other three) he has made massive strides with his ability to take care of the ball.
Simons has turned the ball over two or fewer times in 10 of his last 12 games despite logging 37.7 minutes per game and having an extremely high usage rate during that span.
The Jazz are 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating and their opponent turnover rate of 12.3% also ranks 22nd in the league. That number has dipped to just 10.6% in their last three games as they continue to miss Mike Conley who is their best defender at pressuring opposing ballhandlers. Take the Under 2.5 on Simons turnovers.
Anfernee Simons Prop: Under 2.5 turnovers (+100)
After a poor start to their season, the Golden State Warriors are back to looking like the defending champions having won six of their last eight games.
That said, they are still just 26th in the league in scoring defense (117 ppg allowed) and haven't gotten any better with the Dubs allowing 116.3 ppg in their last seven contests. That span began with a 127-120 shootout win against the Rockets on November 20 and they face off against Houston again today.
The Rockets are one of the worst teams in the league but they play at a fast tempo and are capable of filling up the hoop, which we saw last night when they upset the Suns 122-121.
Rookie Jabari Smith has been making strides on the offensive end of the floor and dropped 17 points last night while scoring a season-high 22 in that previously mentioned contest versus the Warriors.
With the O/U on Smith's points total set at 12.5, a number he has eclipsed in five of his last six games (Smith logged 17 minutes and took just four field goal attempts in the one contest he went Under during that stretch), bet the Over.
Jabari Smith Jr. Prop: Over 12.5 points
Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert is coming off perhaps the worst rebounding performance of his career, pulling down just a single rebound in 26 minutes of action against Memphis on Wednesday.
That said, the three-time Defensive Player of the Year has been rebounding at an elite level for years and is coming off a season where he led the NBA with 14.7 rebounds per game.
Gobert has found it tough to coexist with fellow seven-footer Karl-Anthony Towns in Minnesota's frontcourt, but with Towns hitting the IL with a calf injury earlier this week, he has no excuse not to dominate inside.
The Thunder have the fourth-worst rebounding rate in the league and play at the sixth-fastest pace, so there should be plenty of rebounding opportunities for Gobert in this one. Expect the Stifle Tower to bounce back from a pathetic performance and go Over his rebounds total tonight.
Rudy Gobert Prop: Over 13.5 rebounds (-120)
Simons and Garfunkel
The Blazers have lost seven of their last eight games as they head to Salt Lake City to take on the Jazz. A big reason for Portland's current slide has been the absence of All-Star point guard Damian Lillard, who has missed the last six games and isn't expected to suit up until tomorrow.
With Dame sidelined, Anfernee Simons has stepped up and continues to be one of the most promising young guards in the league. Although Simons can be a bit inconsistent with his shooting (he's been red-hot in three of his last six games and ice-cold in the other three) he has made massive strides with his ability to take care of the ball.
Simons has turned the ball over two or fewer times in 10 of his last 12 games despite logging 37.7 minutes per game and having an extremely high usage rate during that span.
The Jazz are 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating and their opponent turnover rate of 12.3% also ranks 22nd in the league. That number has dipped to just 10.6% in their last three games as they continue to miss Mike Conley who is their best defender at pressuring opposing ballhandlers. Take the Under 2.5 on Simons turnovers.
Anfernee Simons Prop: Under 2.5 turnovers (+100)
After a poor start to their season, the Golden State Warriors are back to looking like the defending champions having won six of their last eight games.
That said, they are still just 26th in the league in scoring defense (117 ppg allowed) and haven't gotten any better with the Dubs allowing 116.3 ppg in their last seven contests. That span began with a 127-120 shootout win against the Rockets on November 20 and they face off against Houston again today.
The Rockets are one of the worst teams in the league but they play at a fast tempo and are capable of filling up the hoop, which we saw last night when they upset the Suns 122-121.
Rookie Jabari Smith has been making strides on the offensive end of the floor and dropped 17 points last night while scoring a season-high 22 in that previously mentioned contest versus the Warriors.
With the O/U on Smith's points total set at 12.5, a number he has eclipsed in five of his last six games (Smith logged 17 minutes and took just four field goal attempts in the one contest he went Under during that stretch), bet the Over.
Jabari Smith Jr. Prop: Over 12.5 points
3 for Monday
Miami is allowing a three-point attempt rate of 44.4%, the highest clip in the league.
Brooks has taken at least seven threes in 7 of his last 10 games, so when you add in the matchup, three-point volume shouldn't be an issue for him today. Brooks has made at least three triples in four of the last seven games, so he's hitting them at a good clip, too.
Admittedly, our model projects Brooks to make only 2.3 triples on Monday. But with the over priced at +140, I'm willing to roll the dice on Brooks hitting at least three shots from deep.
Tatum is averaging 8.1 rebounds per night for the campaign, and that's actually a career-best mark. He's averaging 10.7 rebounds per 100 possessions, but DARKO has him projected at 10.2 boards per 100 possessions, so he may be due for a slight downtick in rebounding.
He's facing the Toronto Raptors on Monday, and Toronto is solid on the glass. They rank eighth in rebound rate for the year, and they are giving up just 9.3 rebounds per game to the power forward position, the ninth-fewest.
Our model pegs Tatum to total 7.9 rebounds tonight.
Luka Doncic cooked the Suns in that series, averaging 32.6 points, 9.9 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 2.1 steals. But the Suns mostly kept him in check from deep as Doncic made three-plus treys in only three of the seven games, shooting 33.8% from three in the series.
This should be another difficult matchup for Luka when it comes to threes. The Suns are giving up a 35.2% three-point attempt rate, the third-lowest. They're holding the point guard position to only 6.9 three-point tries per game, the fifth-lowest.
All that has me leaning toward the under on Doncic's made threes prop.
Dillon Brooks Over 2.5 Made Threes (+140)
No team in the NBA gives up a higher three-point attempt rate than the Miami Heat do, and that should lead to a lot of three-point tries tonight for Dillon Brooks.Miami is allowing a three-point attempt rate of 44.4%, the highest clip in the league.
Brooks has taken at least seven threes in 7 of his last 10 games, so when you add in the matchup, three-point volume shouldn't be an issue for him today. Brooks has made at least three triples in four of the last seven games, so he's hitting them at a good clip, too.
Admittedly, our model projects Brooks to make only 2.3 triples on Monday. But with the over priced at +140, I'm willing to roll the dice on Brooks hitting at least three shots from deep.
Jayson Tatum Under 8.5 Rebounds (-108)
Across his last three games, Jayson Tatum has snagged 11, 12 and 11 rebounds, but this line is where it is -- and the pricing is fairly even on each side (-118 on the over) -- for a reason.Tatum is averaging 8.1 rebounds per night for the campaign, and that's actually a career-best mark. He's averaging 10.7 rebounds per 100 possessions, but DARKO has him projected at 10.2 boards per 100 possessions, so he may be due for a slight downtick in rebounding.
He's facing the Toronto Raptors on Monday, and Toronto is solid on the glass. They rank eighth in rebound rate for the year, and they are giving up just 9.3 rebounds per game to the power forward position, the ninth-fewest.
Our model pegs Tatum to total 7.9 rebounds tonight.
Luka Doncic Under 2.5 Made Threes (-104)
The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns tangle tonight in a rematch of their Western Conference semifinal series from a year ago.Luka Doncic cooked the Suns in that series, averaging 32.6 points, 9.9 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 2.1 steals. But the Suns mostly kept him in check from deep as Doncic made three-plus treys in only three of the seven games, shooting 33.8% from three in the series.
This should be another difficult matchup for Luka when it comes to threes. The Suns are giving up a 35.2% three-point attempt rate, the third-lowest. They're holding the point guard position to only 6.9 three-point tries per game, the fifth-lowest.
All that has me leaning toward the under on Doncic's made threes prop.
Tue prop ideas
However, he's not going to keep shooting as well as he has been, especially during this recent tear. For the year, he's hitting 61.0% of his two-pointers and 33.3% of his threes. DARKO projects him to make 58.1% of his twos and 30.1% from deep.
His shooting percentages have gone through the roof during his nine-game run of MVP-level play, making 64.8% of his shots overall, including 45.5% of his three-pointers. That just won't last.
Davis is due to slow down in the scoring department, and it could come tonight versus a Cleveland Cavaliers team that ranks second in defensive rating and plays at the league's slowest pace. The Los Angeles Lakers, meanwhile, operate at the league's fastest pace, so it's as big of a slow-down spot as there is for LA.
The Cavs have been particularly tough on centers, limiting the position to just 19.4 points per night, the fourth-fewest, and Cleveland may get Jarrett Allen back for this one.
All in all, our model projects Davis to net 24.5 points tonight.
He's due for an uptick in rebounds, too. For the year, he's snagged just 15.3 rebounds per 100 possessions. He was at 20.2 boards per 100 possessions a season ago, and DARKO projects him at 17.5 rebounds per 100 possessions.
Jokic also benefits from the absence of Michael Porter Jr. With MPJ off the floor, Jokic totals 1.88 more rebounds per 36 minutes, according to RogoGrinders' CourtIQ.
The matchup shouldn't be an issue, as the Dallas Mavericks are just 16th in rebound rate as a team.
We have Jokic pulling down 11.8 rebounds on Tuesday.
Anthony Davis Under 27.5 Points (-120)
Anthony Davis is playing unbelievably well lately. Over his past nine games, he's averaging 35.3 points, 15.6 boards and 4.1 combined blocks/steals. He's been insane.However, he's not going to keep shooting as well as he has been, especially during this recent tear. For the year, he's hitting 61.0% of his two-pointers and 33.3% of his threes. DARKO projects him to make 58.1% of his twos and 30.1% from deep.
His shooting percentages have gone through the roof during his nine-game run of MVP-level play, making 64.8% of his shots overall, including 45.5% of his three-pointers. That just won't last.
Davis is due to slow down in the scoring department, and it could come tonight versus a Cleveland Cavaliers team that ranks second in defensive rating and plays at the league's slowest pace. The Los Angeles Lakers, meanwhile, operate at the league's fastest pace, so it's as big of a slow-down spot as there is for LA.
The Cavs have been particularly tough on centers, limiting the position to just 19.4 points per night, the fourth-fewest, and Cleveland may get Jarrett Allen back for this one.
All in all, our model projects Davis to net 24.5 points tonight.
Nikola Jokic Over 10.5 Rebounds (-130)
Nikola Jokic has gone for 11-plus rebounds in three of his last five games, including a 16-board outing in his most recent contest.He's due for an uptick in rebounds, too. For the year, he's snagged just 15.3 rebounds per 100 possessions. He was at 20.2 boards per 100 possessions a season ago, and DARKO projects him at 17.5 rebounds per 100 possessions.
Jokic also benefits from the absence of Michael Porter Jr. With MPJ off the floor, Jokic totals 1.88 more rebounds per 36 minutes, according to RogoGrinders' CourtIQ.
The matchup shouldn't be an issue, as the Dallas Mavericks are just 16th in rebound rate as a team.
We have Jokic pulling down 11.8 rebounds on Tuesday.
3 props for Wed
Trae Young Over 2.5 Made Threes (+132)
Trae Young is going up against the New York Knicks today, and the Knicks are giving up a three-point attempt rate of 43.1%, the second-highest clip in the NBA. It's a great matchup for Young.Admittedly, Young has been cold from beyond the arc of late, making just five total triples across his previous four games. He's shot 5 for 30 from three in that span. He's been a little off from three all year, hitting only 29.6% from deep.
But his shooting percentages will rebound eventually -- DARKO projects him as a 36.5% three-point shooter -- and the volume should be there tonight in this matchup.
Our model has Young drilling 3.0 threes on 8.3 attempts. With the over at +132, this is my favorite prop bet of the night.
Klay Thompson Under 4.5 Made Threes (-140)
On the opposite end of the spectrum from the Knicks in terms of three-point defense is the Utah Jazz.Utah is holding opponents to a 33.2% three-point attempt rate, a league-low mark by 1.4 percentage points. They've been particularly tough on two-guards, allowing only 7.3 three-point tries per game to the position.
That's one of the big reasons I'm on the under on Klay Thompson's made threes at this line of 4.5.
Thompson can still fill it up when he gets going, which he did last time out as he shot 8 for 16 from three on Monday. But prior to that, he made at least five threes in just 4 of his previous 11 games.
While it might seem like the absence of Stephen Curry -- who is out tonight -- would help Klay make more threes, it's been the opposite this campaign. With Curry off the floor this season, Thompson is making 4.1 threes per 36 minutes, a drop of 0.49 threes from his usual mark, per RotoGrinders' CourtIQ.
We project Klay to make 4.3 treys on 11.3 attempts on Wednesday.
Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 Points (-115)
Anthony Edwards is in a blowup spot tonight.Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves are hosting the Indiana Pacers. These two teams rank first and second in pace, and both are in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating. As such, the total for this clash is 237.0 points. Giddy up.
Making things even better for Edwards is that Karl-Anthony Towns is out. With KAT off the floor this year, Edwards has a 30.3% usage rate and drops in 26.7 points per 36 minutes. Those are increases of 3.2 percentage points in usage rate and 4.2 points per 36 minutes. We have Edwards playing 36.8 minutes tonight, and he's logged at least 36 minutes in three straight.
On top of all that, the Pacers have been shredded by shooting guards this season, permitting the third-most points per game to the position.
All of that has me expecting a huge game from Edwards, and I like him to net 27-plus points in this plum spot.
3 for Friday
The total for the game is pretty healthy at 229.5 points, and the Brooklyn Nets are favored by 7.0 points. That gives the Nets an implied team total of 118.25 points, which is 6.95 points higher than Brooklyn's season average of 111.3 points.
Durant himself is averaging 29.8 points per game and is stepping into a matchup with an average defense over the past two weeks. Against teams in the middle 10 in defensive rating this season (eight games), Durant has averaged 31.0 points.
With his projected points output (again, 29.5), we can consider Durant to be 60.2% likely to go over the 27.5-point prop.
He has averaged 4.9 helpers per game, and with Tyrese Maxey off the floor, his assist-per-minute rate is 0.182, according to CourtIQ. That's a bump of +0.040 for him compared to when he's sharing the floor with Maxey and works out to a per-36 rate of 6.6 assists.
Embiid also has good underlying assist data. According to DARKO's data, Embiid should be averaging 0.139 assists per minute over the full season, which -- across 35.78 projected minutes -- is 4.97 assists.
The lowest rate of all of these is his actual projection of just 4.3. At that number, we should consider Embiid to be 59.8% likely to go over.
Devin Booker is projected for 2.8 made threes, which checks out.
Booker has an average line of 2.3 makes on 6.1 attempts per game and is now up against the New Orleans Pelicans, who allow the sixth-most three-point attempts per game of the season.
Booker already has played 12 games against teams in the bottom 10 in three-point attempts per game allowed (i.e. the teams allowing the most threes). In those matchups, he's averaging 2.8 makes on 6.8 attempts (so an uptick in volume against teams that generally allow more looks from beyond the arc).
Statistically speaking, the odds on the over here should be -115 rather than +104 if we use a projection of 2.8 made threes.
Kevin Durant Over 27.5 Points (-118)
Kevin Durant's points projection is 29.5 in a matchup against the Atlanta Hawks.The total for the game is pretty healthy at 229.5 points, and the Brooklyn Nets are favored by 7.0 points. That gives the Nets an implied team total of 118.25 points, which is 6.95 points higher than Brooklyn's season average of 111.3 points.
Durant himself is averaging 29.8 points per game and is stepping into a matchup with an average defense over the past two weeks. Against teams in the middle 10 in defensive rating this season (eight games), Durant has averaged 31.0 points.
With his projected points output (again, 29.5), we can consider Durant to be 60.2% likely to go over the 27.5-point prop.
Joel Embiid Over 3.5 Assists (-118)
In a national television game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Joel Embiid is projected to rack up 4.3 assists by numberFire's model.He has averaged 4.9 helpers per game, and with Tyrese Maxey off the floor, his assist-per-minute rate is 0.182, according to CourtIQ. That's a bump of +0.040 for him compared to when he's sharing the floor with Maxey and works out to a per-36 rate of 6.6 assists.
Embiid also has good underlying assist data. According to DARKO's data, Embiid should be averaging 0.139 assists per minute over the full season, which -- across 35.78 projected minutes -- is 4.97 assists.
The lowest rate of all of these is his actual projection of just 4.3. At that number, we should consider Embiid to be 59.8% likely to go over.
Devin Booker Over 2.5 Made Threes (+104)
I guess I'm feeling good on a Friday with three over recommendations, but this one is a plus-money prop.Devin Booker is projected for 2.8 made threes, which checks out.
Booker has an average line of 2.3 makes on 6.1 attempts per game and is now up against the New Orleans Pelicans, who allow the sixth-most three-point attempts per game of the season.
Booker already has played 12 games against teams in the bottom 10 in three-point attempts per game allowed (i.e. the teams allowing the most threes). In those matchups, he's averaging 2.8 makes on 6.8 attempts (so an uptick in volume against teams that generally allow more looks from beyond the arc).
Statistically speaking, the odds on the over here should be -115 rather than +104 if we use a projection of 2.8 made threes.
a few to consider for Sat
The NBA schedule on Saturday has eight games, giving prop bettors plenty of options.
The pregame narrative: Damian Lillard is coming off a huge game and facing a poor perimeter defence, Steph Curry has a chance to beat up on the Boston Celtics once again and Jimmy Butler has an extremely soft matchup.
Find all our best NBA props picks for December 10 below.
Odds as of 9:56 a.m. ET on 12/010/2022.
Although Lillard recently returned from injury he showed he was well and truly back on Thursday night with a massive effort against the Denver Nuggets.
There’s some juice on this line, but all it asks Lillard to do is produce his season-long scoring average (26.9) and a lacklustre opponent should help facilitate that.
Skip Advertisement
Adding Rudy Gobert in the offseason has not made the Minnesota Timberwolves a defensive powerhouse as they sit 22nd in the NBA in points per game allowed (115.8). While Gobert can make things difficult at the rim, Lillard does his damage from the perimeter and that’s where Minnesota has struggled.
The Timberwolves allow the fourth-most points to point guards on a per-game basis and they are vulnerable from beyond the arc.
Minnesota allows 13.8 threes per game, the second-highest total in the league. Only five teams allow opponents to convert on 3-pointers at a higher percentage.
That’s music to the ears of Lillard. The veteran is attempting a career-high 10.6 threes per game, a number topped by only Curry this season. He’s gotten 43.7% of his points from behind the line and that share could be even higher against this Timberwolves team.
Key stat: Minnesota allows opposing point guards to score 26.9 points per game.
The Celtics have a strong defensive reputation, but they were much better on that end of the floor last season. This year their defence ranks 12th in points per game allowed.
Curry’s last game against Boston came during last season’s NBA Finals. He scored 30 or more in four of the six games averaging 31.2 points per contest.
The NBA schedule on Saturday has eight games, giving prop bettors plenty of options.
The pregame narrative: Damian Lillard is coming off a huge game and facing a poor perimeter defence, Steph Curry has a chance to beat up on the Boston Celtics once again and Jimmy Butler has an extremely soft matchup.
Find all our best NBA props picks for December 10 below.
Odds as of 9:56 a.m. ET on 12/010/2022.
NBA prop picks
Best Bet : Damian Lillard over 26.5 points (-122)Although Lillard recently returned from injury he showed he was well and truly back on Thursday night with a massive effort against the Denver Nuggets.
There’s some juice on this line, but all it asks Lillard to do is produce his season-long scoring average (26.9) and a lacklustre opponent should help facilitate that.
Skip Advertisement
Adding Rudy Gobert in the offseason has not made the Minnesota Timberwolves a defensive powerhouse as they sit 22nd in the NBA in points per game allowed (115.8). While Gobert can make things difficult at the rim, Lillard does his damage from the perimeter and that’s where Minnesota has struggled.
The Timberwolves allow the fourth-most points to point guards on a per-game basis and they are vulnerable from beyond the arc.
Minnesota allows 13.8 threes per game, the second-highest total in the league. Only five teams allow opponents to convert on 3-pointers at a higher percentage.
That’s music to the ears of Lillard. The veteran is attempting a career-high 10.6 threes per game, a number topped by only Curry this season. He’s gotten 43.7% of his points from behind the line and that share could be even higher against this Timberwolves team.
Key stat: Minnesota allows opposing point guards to score 26.9 points per game.
Quick picks
Curry over 29.5 points (-120): This line would be far too high for most stars, but Curry is averaging 30.0 points per game on the season and he’s hit this over in 60.9% of his starts.The Celtics have a strong defensive reputation, but they were much better on that end of the floor last season. This year their defence ranks 12th in points per game allowed.
Curry’s last game against Boston came during last season’s NBA Finals. He scored 30 or more in four of the six games averaging 31.2 points per contest.
3 for Tue
He probably won't get many clean looks from three today in a date with the Boston Celtics. Boston is allowing a three-point attempt rate of just 35.5%, the fourth-lowest. They are giving up the ninth-fewest three-point tries per night to point guards (7.4) and the sixth-fewest to shooting guards (7.7).
Our model has Westbrook making 0.8 threes on 2.5 attempts on Tuesday. With the under priced at +134 and the over at -172, the under is the side I want to be on.
With the Suns' expected inactives off the floor this year, Craig is making 2.15 threes per 36 minutes, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ. We project Craig to play 31.1 minutes today.
The matchup against the Houston Rockets helps a lot, too. Not only are the Rockets a poor defensive team (28th in defensive rating), they give up a lot of three-point tries, permitting the league's second-highest three-point attempt rate (42.9%). Shooting guards have found plenty of open looks against Houston as the Rockets give up the second-most three-point attempts per game to the position (10.3).
And Craig is stroking it this year, making 39.3% from beyond the arc, a career-best mark.
Joel Embiid is at home against the Sacramento Kings. This is a huge pace-up spot for the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers play at the fourth-slowest pace while Sacramento plays at the sixth-fastest pace. There should be more possessions -- and more rebounds up for grabs -- than usual for Embiid.
Blowout risk isn't much of a worry, either. The Sixers are only 5.0-point favorites.
On top of that, Embiid is due for some positive regression in the rebounding department. He's pulling down just 13.5 rebounds per 100 possessions this year. His career average is 17.4, and he snagged 17.3 boards per 100 possessions a year ago. DARKO has him at an expected 15.1 rebounds per 100 possessions.
We project Embiid to rack up 11.2 rebounds on Tuesday night.
Russell Westbrook Under 0.5 Made Threes (+134)
Russell Westbrook has failed to make a three-pointer in four of his past six games. Across the four games in which he didn't make a three in that span, he attempted just five total triples, so he's not shooting much from deep.He probably won't get many clean looks from three today in a date with the Boston Celtics. Boston is allowing a three-point attempt rate of just 35.5%, the fourth-lowest. They are giving up the ninth-fewest three-point tries per night to point guards (7.4) and the sixth-fewest to shooting guards (7.7).
Our model has Westbrook making 0.8 threes on 2.5 attempts on Tuesday. With the under priced at +134 and the over at -172, the under is the side I want to be on.
Torrey Craig Over 1.5 Made Threes (-138)
The Phoenix Suns are without star Devin Booker, which thrusts Torrey Craig into a bigger role and has me on Craig's made threes prop.With the Suns' expected inactives off the floor this year, Craig is making 2.15 threes per 36 minutes, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ. We project Craig to play 31.1 minutes today.
The matchup against the Houston Rockets helps a lot, too. Not only are the Rockets a poor defensive team (28th in defensive rating), they give up a lot of three-point tries, permitting the league's second-highest three-point attempt rate (42.9%). Shooting guards have found plenty of open looks against Houston as the Rockets give up the second-most three-point attempts per game to the position (10.3).
And Craig is stroking it this year, making 39.3% from beyond the arc, a career-best mark.
Joel Embiid Over 10.5 Rebounds (+100)
Let's take a shot on another plus-money prop.Joel Embiid is at home against the Sacramento Kings. This is a huge pace-up spot for the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers play at the fourth-slowest pace while Sacramento plays at the sixth-fastest pace. There should be more possessions -- and more rebounds up for grabs -- than usual for Embiid.
Blowout risk isn't much of a worry, either. The Sixers are only 5.0-point favorites.
On top of that, Embiid is due for some positive regression in the rebounding department. He's pulling down just 13.5 rebounds per 100 possessions this year. His career average is 17.4, and he snagged 17.3 boards per 100 possessions a year ago. DARKO has him at an expected 15.1 rebounds per 100 possessions.
We project Embiid to rack up 11.2 rebounds on Tuesday night.
3 for Wednesday
Ivey has been plagued by ice-cold shooting during this recent swoon, and he won't keep shooting this badly. The rookie is hitting just 32.8% of his shots over the last five, including 24.0% from three. For the year, he's made 40.4 of his shots and 30.0% from deep.
He can get going today versus the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets are giving up the sixth-most points per game to shooting guards (24.3), and Charlotte ranks sixth-worst in defensive rating.
Our model projects Ivey to net 15.1 points, and this is a plus-money prop to hone in on.
But I stumbled into an over our model adores.
Donovan Mitchell isn't shy about hoisting shots from beyond the arc. He's taken at least seven three-pointers in 21 of his past 22 games. He's put up double-digit threes in four of his previous 10 outings. Mitchell has nailed at least three treys in three of his last five contests.
We have Mitchell making 3.4 triples on 9.2 tries on Wednesday. The over is the side to be on.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is up against the Washington Wizards. Washington isn't good on D -- just 22nd in defensive rating -- but they do a nice job limiting three-point tries. For the season, the Wiz are giving up a three-point attempt rate of 37.2%, the eighth-lowest.
KCP has hit multiple trifectas in three straight, and he's on fire from three this season, hitting 46.1% of his shots from downtown. That 46.1% clip is not going to last. He's made more than 40.0% of his threes in only one season of his career, and he's a 38.0% shooter from three over his last four campaigns.
While Caldwell-Pope is a marksman, he won't keep shooting 46.1% on his three-balls.
We project KCP right at this line as we expect him to make 1.6 threes on 4.4 attempts versus Washington. With the over at -136 and the under priced at +110, I would rather take a shot on the under.
Jaden Ivey Over 14.5 Points (+100)
Jaden Ivey is in a funk of late, scoring 12 or fewer points in four of his past five games. That makes it seem like the under is the way to go on this one, but I'm bullish on the over.Ivey has been plagued by ice-cold shooting during this recent swoon, and he won't keep shooting this badly. The rookie is hitting just 32.8% of his shots over the last five, including 24.0% from three. For the year, he's made 40.4 of his shots and 30.0% from deep.
He can get going today versus the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets are giving up the sixth-most points per game to shooting guards (24.3), and Charlotte ranks sixth-worst in defensive rating.
Our model projects Ivey to net 15.1 points, and this is a plus-money prop to hone in on.
Donovan Mitchell Over 2.5 Made Threes (-138)
I went through the Cleveland Cavaliers' made threes props looking for an under to target because of how slow-paced this matchup with the Dallas Mavericks should be and how good Dallas is at preventing the three-ball.But I stumbled into an over our model adores.
Donovan Mitchell isn't shy about hoisting shots from beyond the arc. He's taken at least seven three-pointers in 21 of his past 22 games. He's put up double-digit threes in four of his previous 10 outings. Mitchell has nailed at least three treys in three of his last five contests.
We have Mitchell making 3.4 triples on 9.2 tries on Wednesday. The over is the side to be on.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Under 1.5 Made Threes (+110)
Here's an under both me and our model are into.Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is up against the Washington Wizards. Washington isn't good on D -- just 22nd in defensive rating -- but they do a nice job limiting three-point tries. For the season, the Wiz are giving up a three-point attempt rate of 37.2%, the eighth-lowest.
KCP has hit multiple trifectas in three straight, and he's on fire from three this season, hitting 46.1% of his shots from downtown. That 46.1% clip is not going to last. He's made more than 40.0% of his threes in only one season of his career, and he's a 38.0% shooter from three over his last four campaigns.
While Caldwell-Pope is a marksman, he won't keep shooting 46.1% on his three-balls.
We project KCP right at this line as we expect him to make 1.6 threes on 4.4 attempts versus Washington. With the over at -136 and the under priced at +110, I would rather take a shot on the under.
3 for Thursday
As for Tyler Herro himself, he is averaging 6.3 rebounds per game, so while the base expectation is close, the matchup isn't necessarily one in which we should bump up the projected rebound rate.
Herro is projected by numberFire for only 5.5 boards tonight.
Based on the underlying data from DARKO, Herro should be averaging 0.169 rebounds per minute but is actually averaging 0.182. Therefore, he's overperforming in the rebounding column, and he's in a pretty negative situation for getting boards.
At a projection of 5.5 rebounds, we should assume under odds of -215 at a prop of 6.5.
Milwaukee ranks first in the NBA in defensive rating, yes, but in games against top-10 defenses this season, Jackson Jr. has averaged 17.5 points (0.677 points per minute). He's done that over 25.8 minutes per game.
Tonight, he's projected for more minutes than that (29.8) and 17.6 points.
At a projection of 17.6 points, we should assume fair odds on the over at 16.5 points to be -122.
With Brandon Ingram off the floor this season, McCollum has averaged 0.500 points per minute, meaning he'd need 38.0 minutes to get over here. He has a nice 26.0% usage rate in that split.
And, for as good as the Jazz have been (relative to pre-season expectations), they have a bottom-10 defense.
Also, the underlying data from DARKO suggests that McCollum should be averaging 0.529 points per minute, which would mean he would get to 19 points in 35.9 minutes before an efficiency boost based on the easy matchup.
The opportunity and efficiency uptick here is pointing to the over.
Tyler Herro Under 6.5 Rebounds (-111)
The Miami Heat are facing the Houston Rockets tonight, but Houston ranks fifth-best in rebounds per game allowed to opponents.As for Tyler Herro himself, he is averaging 6.3 rebounds per game, so while the base expectation is close, the matchup isn't necessarily one in which we should bump up the projected rebound rate.
Herro is projected by numberFire for only 5.5 boards tonight.
Based on the underlying data from DARKO, Herro should be averaging 0.169 rebounds per minute but is actually averaging 0.182. Therefore, he's overperforming in the rebounding column, and he's in a pretty negative situation for getting boards.
At a projection of 5.5 rebounds, we should assume under odds of -215 at a prop of 6.5.
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 16.5 Points (+100)
An even-money opportunity exists here with the over for Jaren Jackson Jr.'s points output against the Milwaukee Bucks.Milwaukee ranks first in the NBA in defensive rating, yes, but in games against top-10 defenses this season, Jackson Jr. has averaged 17.5 points (0.677 points per minute). He's done that over 25.8 minutes per game.
Tonight, he's projected for more minutes than that (29.8) and 17.6 points.
At a projection of 17.6 points, we should assume fair odds on the over at 16.5 points to be -122.
C.J. McCollum Over 18.5 Points (-122)
C.J. McCollum is projected for 19.5 points in his matchup against the Utah Jazz on the road.With Brandon Ingram off the floor this season, McCollum has averaged 0.500 points per minute, meaning he'd need 38.0 minutes to get over here. He has a nice 26.0% usage rate in that split.
And, for as good as the Jazz have been (relative to pre-season expectations), they have a bottom-10 defense.
Also, the underlying data from DARKO suggests that McCollum should be averaging 0.529 points per minute, which would mean he would get to 19 points in 35.9 minutes before an efficiency boost based on the easy matchup.
The opportunity and efficiency uptick here is pointing to the over.
3 For Friday
That looks to be a big reason why his over odds at 2.5 made threes are +112. Those odds put him at 47.2% likely to go over.
numberFire's model, though, is projecting Young for 2.8 made threes tonight.
Despite the sub-30% shooting percentage, Young has an expected three-point make percentage of 36.2%, according to DARKO.
Young is facing the Charlotte Hornets, a team that is allowing a league-average number of three-point attempts per game overall on the season, so there should still be shot volume.
At a projection of 2.8 makes, we can consider Young around 53.0% likely to go over, meaning the odds should be more like -112 than +112.
The Bulls rank around the league average in points per game allowed and are 10th in defensive rating. That seems to matter for Julius Randle.
In games against top-10 defenses, Randle has averaged only 19.4 points per game in 35.3 minutes per contest.
In games against non-top-10 defenses, he's at 24.6 points per game, so the full-season scoring average (22.6 points) is inflated due to success in better matchups.
Randle is projected for 24.3 points tonight, and even at that rate, we should expect under odds of -129.
The juice is -130 on the over for Doncic's assists prop, but that's okay. numberFire is projecting Luka for 9.3 helpers, which is in line with his underlying assist data, via DARKO.
Doncic has averaged a healthy 8.9 assists per game against teams outside the top 10 in defensive rating while maintaining an assist-per-minute rate of 0.242 in that span.
Using numberFire's base projection (9.3 helpers), we can consider Doncic around -142 to go over.
Trae Young Over 2.5 Made Threes (+112)
Trae Young is averaging just 2.0 made threes per game on the season, and he is shooting just 28.5% from beyond the arc.That looks to be a big reason why his over odds at 2.5 made threes are +112. Those odds put him at 47.2% likely to go over.
numberFire's model, though, is projecting Young for 2.8 made threes tonight.
Despite the sub-30% shooting percentage, Young has an expected three-point make percentage of 36.2%, according to DARKO.
Young is facing the Charlotte Hornets, a team that is allowing a league-average number of three-point attempts per game overall on the season, so there should still be shot volume.
At a projection of 2.8 makes, we can consider Young around 53.0% likely to go over, meaning the odds should be more like -112 than +112.
Julius Randle Under 25.5 Points (-111)
The New York Knicks square up with the Chicago Bulls on the road tonight in a game with a moderate total of 226.0 points.The Bulls rank around the league average in points per game allowed and are 10th in defensive rating. That seems to matter for Julius Randle.
In games against top-10 defenses, Randle has averaged only 19.4 points per game in 35.3 minutes per contest.
In games against non-top-10 defenses, he's at 24.6 points per game, so the full-season scoring average (22.6 points) is inflated due to success in better matchups.
Randle is projected for 24.3 points tonight, and even at that rate, we should expect under odds of -129.
Luka Doncic Over 8.5 Assists (-130)
Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks host the Portland Trail Blazers tonight in a fun game between star point guards.The juice is -130 on the over for Doncic's assists prop, but that's okay. numberFire is projecting Luka for 9.3 helpers, which is in line with his underlying assist data, via DARKO.
Doncic has averaged a healthy 8.9 assists per game against teams outside the top 10 in defensive rating while maintaining an assist-per-minute rate of 0.242 in that span.
Using numberFire's base projection (9.3 helpers), we can consider Doncic around -142 to go over.
3 for Sunday
Randle has made an average of 3.1 threes per game on 9.0 attempts over his last five games and is frequently getting into double-digit attempts. Jalen Brunson is also helping Randle get easier looks. He’s being assisted on his threes at a much higher rate than he was in either of his past two seasons, per Cleaning the Glass.
Importantly, Randle makes a concerted effort to bounce back after off-shooting nights, not allowing a prolonged slump to derail his season as it did for much of last year. He’s had three games in his last 10 where he’s hit just one three, but he’s followed up all of those performances by hitting three or more.
Last game was one of the low-volume nights for Randle, where he was happy to play defense, rebound, and facilitate to help the Knicks win. He likes to remind everyone after one of those nights that he can shoot the rock too.
Julius Randle Prop: Over 2.5 made threes (-110)
The Charlotte Hornets are going nowhere fast. After being publicly torn a new one by head coach Steve Clifford for not playing a lick of defense to start the season, they turned around and let the similarly struggling Atlanta Hawks drop 125 points on them in regulation.
If there’s hope for this Hornets franchise, it’s coming in this coming draft and from the growth of LaMelo Ball. Ball has missed most of this season with a pair of ankle injuries, but in the five games he’s suited up, he’s shown why he’s such an important piece of the Hornets’ future.
Ball came into the league known as a shaky shooter and preternatural passing savant with questionable impact on winning. While the passing has been as expected, he’s pretty much shed the rest of that reputation whole cloth in his first two seasons by making his first All-Star team, becoming beloved by the all-in-one metrics that measure on-court impact, and showcasing that shooting is far from a weakness in his game.
If anything, it’s his outside shot that has been the quickest part of his game to return to form following the ankle injuries. Ball is shooting 37.9% on threes on an absolutely absurd 11.6 attempts per game. Six of those attempts per game are off-the-dribble threes, of which he’s hitting 43.3%. He’s one of the few players in the league who is shooting significantly better on pull-up jumpers than on spot-ups shots.
Denver has also just been a tire fire of a defense this season. They’re so good on offense that they are still one of the NBA’s better teams, but the shots will be there for Ball. Any team willing to play with pace and get up a lot of shots can push them around a bit
I was tempted to take the Over on just threes for Melo, but 3.5 is still a bit rich even given his volume. He’s also shooting an incredible 58.1% on twos so I’m going Over on Ball's point total on Sunday.
LaMelo Ball Prop: Over 21.5 points (-110)
RJ Barrett has been one of the most disappointing players in the NBA this season. After a close to the 2021 campaign that saw him relentlessly attacking the rim and piling up free throws to salvage a down year, he came out ice cold to begin the 2022-23 season. His shooting stats are still hard to look at, but he’s turned a corner recently and has seen growth in volume and efficiency in just about every area.
But perhaps more importantly, he’s seen the return of his defense and overall floor game. The vision for Barrett as a player is not likely to be the primary engine of an elite offense, but rather a complimentary offensive player who helps defend wings, rebounds, and fills in the gaps around another elite talent.
As the Knicks have found new life over their recent winning streak, Barrett has come alive as a defender and on the glass. He’s hit the Over on his rebounding prop in six of his last seven games and has shown a dramatic uptick in overall energy and effort as well.
RJ is now averaging 6.7 rebounds over his last five games. He seems a good bet to hit the Over tonight against an Indiana Pacers team that is Bottom 5 in rebounding on the season and also in the Bottom 10 in contested boards.
RJ Barrett Prop: Over 5.5 rebounds (-145)
Randle has made an average of 3.1 threes per game on 9.0 attempts over his last five games and is frequently getting into double-digit attempts. Jalen Brunson is also helping Randle get easier looks. He’s being assisted on his threes at a much higher rate than he was in either of his past two seasons, per Cleaning the Glass.
Importantly, Randle makes a concerted effort to bounce back after off-shooting nights, not allowing a prolonged slump to derail his season as it did for much of last year. He’s had three games in his last 10 where he’s hit just one three, but he’s followed up all of those performances by hitting three or more.
Last game was one of the low-volume nights for Randle, where he was happy to play defense, rebound, and facilitate to help the Knicks win. He likes to remind everyone after one of those nights that he can shoot the rock too.
Julius Randle Prop: Over 2.5 made threes (-110)
The Charlotte Hornets are going nowhere fast. After being publicly torn a new one by head coach Steve Clifford for not playing a lick of defense to start the season, they turned around and let the similarly struggling Atlanta Hawks drop 125 points on them in regulation.
If there’s hope for this Hornets franchise, it’s coming in this coming draft and from the growth of LaMelo Ball. Ball has missed most of this season with a pair of ankle injuries, but in the five games he’s suited up, he’s shown why he’s such an important piece of the Hornets’ future.
Ball came into the league known as a shaky shooter and preternatural passing savant with questionable impact on winning. While the passing has been as expected, he’s pretty much shed the rest of that reputation whole cloth in his first two seasons by making his first All-Star team, becoming beloved by the all-in-one metrics that measure on-court impact, and showcasing that shooting is far from a weakness in his game.
If anything, it’s his outside shot that has been the quickest part of his game to return to form following the ankle injuries. Ball is shooting 37.9% on threes on an absolutely absurd 11.6 attempts per game. Six of those attempts per game are off-the-dribble threes, of which he’s hitting 43.3%. He’s one of the few players in the league who is shooting significantly better on pull-up jumpers than on spot-ups shots.
Denver has also just been a tire fire of a defense this season. They’re so good on offense that they are still one of the NBA’s better teams, but the shots will be there for Ball. Any team willing to play with pace and get up a lot of shots can push them around a bit
I was tempted to take the Over on just threes for Melo, but 3.5 is still a bit rich even given his volume. He’s also shooting an incredible 58.1% on twos so I’m going Over on Ball's point total on Sunday.
LaMelo Ball Prop: Over 21.5 points (-110)
RJ Barrett has been one of the most disappointing players in the NBA this season. After a close to the 2021 campaign that saw him relentlessly attacking the rim and piling up free throws to salvage a down year, he came out ice cold to begin the 2022-23 season. His shooting stats are still hard to look at, but he’s turned a corner recently and has seen growth in volume and efficiency in just about every area.
But perhaps more importantly, he’s seen the return of his defense and overall floor game. The vision for Barrett as a player is not likely to be the primary engine of an elite offense, but rather a complimentary offensive player who helps defend wings, rebounds, and fills in the gaps around another elite talent.
As the Knicks have found new life over their recent winning streak, Barrett has come alive as a defender and on the glass. He’s hit the Over on his rebounding prop in six of his last seven games and has shown a dramatic uptick in overall energy and effort as well.
RJ is now averaging 6.7 rebounds over his last five games. He seems a good bet to hit the Over tonight against an Indiana Pacers team that is Bottom 5 in rebounding on the season and also in the Bottom 10 in contested boards.
RJ Barrett Prop: Over 5.5 rebounds (-145)
3 for Tue
The Knicks give up a three-point attempt rate of 42.4%, the fifth-highest in the NBA. They also surrender the 10th-most three-point shots per night to shooting guards (9.4).
That should lead to a lot of three-point tries for Thompson, who is averaging a career-best 9.8 three-point attempts per game this season. His three-point attempt rate of 59.4% is another career-high clip. He's hoisted 11-plus three-pointers in four of his last seven games.
Our model projects Klay to go 4.6 for 11.9 today from deep. That's basically right at this line, but with the over at +116 and the under at -148, the over is the side to be on.
For the season, the Suns have held opponents to a three-point attempt rate of 35.9%, the fourth-lowest. They're allowing the 12th-fewest three-point tries per game to the small forward position (7.7).
Kuzma has been unsustainably hot from three of late, hitting 40.0% from beyond the arc across his past 11 games. That's bound to regress. He was making just 30.05 of his threes this season prior to that 11-game span, and he was a 34.1% shooter from three last year.
We project Kuzma for just 2.1 made threes today on 6.3 attempts.
That per-36 mark makes this over seem like a slam dunk. But while I like the over, there's definitely some risk here, because Ivey hasn't topped 30 minutes in eight straight games.
But we have Ivey projected for 30.4 minutes and 4.5 assists in what should be a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair against the Utah Jazz. The total is 230.0, the spread is 2.5, and both teams rank in the bottom six in defensive rating.
Given the +128 price on the over, it's a fantastic bet.
Klay Thompson Over 4.5 Made Threes (+116)
Klay Thompson can have a big night from downtown against the New York Knicks.The Knicks give up a three-point attempt rate of 42.4%, the fifth-highest in the NBA. They also surrender the 10th-most three-point shots per night to shooting guards (9.4).
That should lead to a lot of three-point tries for Thompson, who is averaging a career-best 9.8 three-point attempts per game this season. His three-point attempt rate of 59.4% is another career-high clip. He's hoisted 11-plus three-pointers in four of his last seven games.
Our model projects Klay to go 4.6 for 11.9 today from deep. That's basically right at this line, but with the over at +116 and the under at -148, the over is the side to be on.
Kyle Kuzma Under 2.5 Made Threes (-128)
In terms of three-point D, the Phoenix Suns are on the opposite end of the spectrum from the aforementioned Knicks. That has me on the under on Kyle Kuzma's made threes prop.For the season, the Suns have held opponents to a three-point attempt rate of 35.9%, the fourth-lowest. They're allowing the 12th-fewest three-point tries per game to the small forward position (7.7).
Kuzma has been unsustainably hot from three of late, hitting 40.0% from beyond the arc across his past 11 games. That's bound to regress. He was making just 30.05 of his threes this season prior to that 11-game span, and he was a 34.1% shooter from three last year.
We project Kuzma for just 2.1 made threes today on 6.3 attempts.
Jaden Ivey Over 3.5 Assists (+128)
Jaden Ivey has notched at least four assists in three of his past five games. He's averaging 3.9 dimes per night for the season as well as 4.7 assists per 36 minutes.That per-36 mark makes this over seem like a slam dunk. But while I like the over, there's definitely some risk here, because Ivey hasn't topped 30 minutes in eight straight games.
But we have Ivey projected for 30.4 minutes and 4.5 assists in what should be a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair against the Utah Jazz. The total is 230.0, the spread is 2.5, and both teams rank in the bottom six in defensive rating.
Given the +128 price on the over, it's a fantastic bet.
