NBA Prop Bets===Master Thread

[MAGAking1]

3 ideas for Wednesday

Mortiz Wagner Over 1.5 Made Threes (+144)​

Moritz Wagner is facing the Houston Rockets, and it's a great spot for him to hit a couple of treys. Houston has allowed a 43.5% three-point attempt rate this season, the highest mark in the NBA.

Wagner has been starting at center, and he's logged at least 29 minutes in three of the Orlando Magic's last four games. He's shooting an uncharacteristically bad 26.5% from three this year. He's never been a great three-point shooter, but he hasn't been this bad.

For his career, he's making 31.5% from deep, and Wagner hit threes at a 32.8% rate a year ago. DARKO projects him to hit 34.3% from beyond the arc.

Due for positive regression from deep and in a matchup where volume shouldn't be an issue, Moritz projects to go 1.8 for 5.7 from three, per our model. That's not quite 2.0, but with the over at +144, it's the side to be on.

Julius Randle Under 9.5 Rebounds (-128)​

Julius Randle has snagged at least 12 rebounds in six straight games. That sounds like we should back the over, but there are reasons the line is at 9.5 (with -128 juice on the under).

Randle is up against the Toronto Raptors. Toronto is good on the glass. They're 11th in rebound rate for the campaign, and they've held power forwards to just 9.0 boards per night, the fifth-fewest.

Prior to his recent four-game rebounding run, Randle had finished with nine or fewer rebounds in six of seven games. He's averaging 9.2 rebounds per night for the season.

Our model projects Randle to pull down 9.4 rebounds. It should be close, but I like the under.

LaMelo Ball Under 21.5 Points (-108)​

LaMelo Ball has been really good since coming back from injury. He's actually gone over 21.5 points in all four of his games. However, there are reasons to take the under.

The matchup is one. The Charlotte Hornets are on the road at the Los Angeles Clippers. The Clips have been tough on point guards this season, holding the position to 22.9 points per night, the sixth-fewest.

On top of that, in his four games since returning, Ball has shot unsustainably well. He's making 48.7% from the field, including 46.7% from three. For his career, he's shooting 43.3% overall and 38.0% from three-point land. DARKO projects him to knock down just 36.2% of his threes.

There are two Ball unders I like -- this points prop and his made threes (3.5; -125 on the under). We project him to score 20.9 points and make 3.1 triples.

 

[MAGAking1]

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Monday

Conley's twilight​

There are 10 active NBA players right now who are franchise-leading scorers. Some, like Steph or LeBron, are obvious, but others, like Mike Conley being the franchise-leading scorer for the Memphis Grizzlies, are a bit of a shock.


In his day, Conley was a tough, physical guard who had a balanced shot diet spread across all three levels. He didn’t have any singular skill that wowed so much as he was average to very good at just about anything you’d want a point guard to do.


Making his first All-Star team in the 2020-21 season was the equivalent of his lifetime achievement Oscar, but just a couple of seasons later, it’s looking like Conley’s time as a positive NBA contributor might be coming to a close.


Conley is still finding ways to impact winning, but the drop-off for a 6-foot-1 guard is usually steep and fast, and the telltale signs are there for Conley this season. His scoring has fallen off a cliff, from a high in October of 11.6 points per game, to 9.3 in November, down to 7.7 in December so far. His usage is also below 20% for the first time in his career, signaling his peripheral involvement in the Jazz offense.


Over his last seven games, he’s shooting 22.6% from three and just 36.4% from the field. His threat as a shooter and his ability to pass still allow him to be a cog in the Utah rotation, but it won’t be long until opposing teams begin daring him to score. With Collin Sexton’s return, Conley could see his limited production drop even further.


Mike Conley Prop: Under 9.5 (-120)

It's Jordan Clarkson time​

There are a whole lot of score-first players who are NBA-caliber talents, but who wash out of the NBA in a short period of time. It takes a special persistence to succeed as a role player whose job is purely to score, and it’s a balancing act between not dominating the ball and also finding a way to consistently impact winning.


Jordan Clarkson, previously the butt of numerous jokes for his tendency to call his own shot at inopportune times, has found the Goldilocks formula playing for the Utah Jazz. He’s a 20-point scorer who consistently helps his team, a consummate sixth man who has seamlessly taken on a starting role for this surprise Jazz team. He’s what they need when they need it, and lately, what they need from him is 3-point shooting.


Clarkson is averaging four made 3-pointers per game over his last five games and has hit the Over on his 3-point prop in all five. He can work on or off the ball, and because the Jazz have so many capable scorers, he’s routinely going against weaker defenders or bent defenses.


His opposition tonight, the San Antonio Spurs, are deep in the development/tanking cycle and have one of the least competitive guard rotations in the NBA. Analytics are split on to what degree defenses influence opponent 3-point shooting accuracy, but when you watch San Antonio, it makes all too much sense that they’re dead last in opponent efficiency from 3-point range.


Bank on Clarkson to keep it going against the Spurs' weak perimeter D.


Jordan Clarkson Prop: Over 2.5 made threes (-113)

The Slim Reaper​

In terms of points per shot attempt, this is the most efficient season of Kevin Durant’s career.


Let me repeat that because it sounds insane... per 100 shot attempts, Durant is scoring 136.8 points, which, if it holds, would be the high water mark in what is already one of the 10 best scoring careers of all-time. That he’s doing this at 34 years old and following an Achilles rupture that had him sidelined for most of two seasons is remarkable.


He’s playing at an MVP level and the list of players and teams capable of bothering him right now is vanishingly small. The Cleveland Cavaliers just don't have the personnel to guard him.


As a team, the Cavs succeed on the strength of their guard offense and their big defense but they are almost entirely without wings to their name. They can wall off the rim but that won’t bother Durant, who succeeds despite taking just 16% of his shots at the basket.


And those times he does drive mostly catch defenses off guard because he’s such a threat to pull up any time he has the ball over half-court.


KD takes more midrange shots for his position than anyone in the NBA, which does nothing to deter his efficiency. Durant is an anomaly, a player so skilled he’s immune to the brute math of 3>2, where any shot he takes is a losing equation for the defense no matter where he takes it.


For a Cavaliers team that, at its best, succeeds by forcing opponents into lower percentage shots, Durant is a problem without an answer. He only hit the Under on his last two scoring props because his services weren’t needed to secure victory. This should be a more competitive game, which will bring the best out of KD.


Kevin Durant Prop: Over 26.5 points (-111)

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for wed

Mikal Bridges Under 2.5 Made Threes (-180)​

Mikal Bridges has hit three-plus triples in just one of his last eight games. He's gone under this line in each of his five most recent outings, making just six total threes over that five-game span.

On top of that, Bridges' matchup with the Washington Wizards isn't a good one for threes. Washington is allowing the fifth-lowest three-point attempt rate this season (36.4%). They are giving up the fifth-fewest three-point tries per night to small forwards (7.1).

We project Bridges to hit only 1.8 threes on 4.9 tries. While the -180 juice isn't fun, the under looks like a sound bet.

Royce O'Neale Under 2.5 Made Threes (-162)​

Over his previous four games, Royce O'Neale has sunk three-plus trifectas in three of them. Despite that, the under is the place to be on his made threes prop for Wednesday.

During that four-game stretch, O'Neale has been unsustainably hot from deep, making 66.7% of his three-point attempts. That obviously won't last, and on the season as a whole, O'Neale is due for negative regression from three. He's making 42.9% from beyond the arc while his previous career-best mark is 38.9%. DARKO has him as an expected 37.8% three-point shooter.

A matchup with the Atlanta Hawks won't help, either. Atlanta is tied for the fifth-lowest three-point attempt rate allowed (36.4%).

Our model has O'Neale going 1.8 for 4.7 from three today.

Zion Williamson Under 25.5 Points (-104)​

Zion Williamson is returning tonight for a matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves, and I'm into the under on his points prop.

Minnesota has been tough on power forwards, holding the position to 21.1 points per game, the 10th-fewest. Minnesota has defensive force Rudy Gobert back, and Gobert should be an issue for Williamson, who takes the vast majority of his shots around the basket.

We project Williamson to net 23.0 points -- a good bit under this line.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Thurs

Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 Assists (+118)​

There are safer prop bets to make, but any time we get a semblance of value on a prop with a line of +118, we should take note.

numberFire is projecting Donovan Mitchell for 5.2 assists tonight in a game against the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers allow an average number of assists per game and are 20th in points per game allowed.

In their first meeting, Mitchell had only 3 assists but 41 points, so we can probably expect the Pacers to try to get the ball more out of his hands this time around.

Mitchell is averaging 4.5 assists per game overall, and at his projection of 5.2 helpers, we can consider him around 58.0% likely to go over here (i.e. odds of roughly -140 on the over).

Marcus Smart Over 3.5 Rebounds (+124)​

A similar logic applies here where there are safer props to target, but this one at +124 odds is appealing.

Marcus Smart is projected to secure 3.8 rebounds tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers in a game with a 227.0-point total. Smart, on the year, has averaged 3.3 rebounds per game and 0.099 per minute.

The Clippers are just an average rebounding team (by rebounds per game allowed), and Smart -- at his projected output -- should be considered even money to go over here rather than +124.

Jaren Jackson Over 13.5 Points (-125)​

Here's a big discrepancy between the projection (16.1) and the prop (13.5).

Jaren Jackson Jr. is expected to go over 13.5 points at around a 63.9% clip based on how high his projection is compared to the prop, so we have a lot of wiggle room here.

JJJ's Memphis Grizzlies face the New York Knicks, who are just 13th in points per game allowed.

He is averaging 15.9 points per game on the season and 16.5 points per game against teams not in the top-10 defensively by points per game allowed.

 

[MAGAking1]

Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 12.5 Rebounds (-118)​

Giannis Antetokounmpo has pulled down 20 and 22 rebounds over his past two games. He's gone for at least 13 boards in four of the past five games. But there are reasons to back the under tonight.

While Antetokounmpo has been a monster on the glass of late, he's unlikely to keep rebounding at that level. He's averaging 11.8 boards per night for the season, and prior to the past five games, he had pulled down 12 or fewer rebounds in five of the previous six outings.

He's taking on the Washington Wizards, a team that is surrendering the 8th-fewest rebounds per night to power forwards (9.2) while ranking 12th in overall rebound rate (50.2%).

There's also some blowout risk in this one as the Milwaukee Bucks are 8.5-point home favorites.

In all, our model projects Giannis for 12.5 rebounds on Tuesday -- right at this line. But I side with the under.

Jalen Williams Under 0.5 Made Threes (+112)​

Jalen Williams has an all-around rough matchup tonight against the Boston Celtics, particularly when it comes to the three-point line.

Boston is 7th in defensive rating and 16th in pace. It's a pace-down spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are playing at the third-fastest pace. The Celtics also don't give up many three-point tries, holding opponents to the fourth-lowest three-point attempt rate (36.3%).

Williams isn't taking many threes as is, hoisting up just 2.9 three-pointers per night. He's making 30.5% from deep and only 0.8 per game.

On top of all that, OKC is a 9.0-point 'dog, so there's a chance they get blown out, which would likely result in fewer minutes for Williams.

We project Williams to make 0.9 threes on 2.9 attempts. With the under at +112 and the over at -142, the under is the side I want to be on.

De'Aaron Fox Over 25.5 Points (-115)​

The Utah Jazz-Sacramento Kings matchup should be a shootout.

It's got a 242.5-point total and 3.0-point spread. Both squads are in the top 12 in pace. The player props in the game reflect this, with lines a tick or two above where we usually see them. However, I think there's some value on the over for De'Aaron Fox's points prop.

Utah is a nice matchup for him to have a good day in the scoring department. The Jazz are permitting the ninth-most points per game to point guards (26.2).

Fox has netted 26-plus points in three of his last five contests. One of the exceptions in that span was a game against the Jazz in which he had 24 points, but he was plagued by poor shooting in that one, going just 10 for 24 from the field (41.7%). He's a 49.9% shooter for the campaign.

Our model has Fox scoring 26.3 points tonight.

 

[tonyd85]

Can I ask where you are pulling this data from? I subscribed to betprep, but it hasn't been above 50% win rate plus they don't acct for injuries.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for wed

Trey Murphy Over 2.5 Made Threes (+120)​

Trey Murphy is in a great spot to go over this prop.
The matchup is a big reason why. Murphy is taking on the Houston Rockets. No team in the NBA allows a higher three-point attempt rate than the Rockets do, with Houston permitting a 44.8% clip. Houston is giving up the seventh-most three-point tries per night to small forwards (8.4).
Murphy also gets a slight boost without Zion Williamson. With Williamson off the floor this year, Murphy is hitting 3.09 triples per 36 minutes, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ. We project him to play 32.9 minutes on Wednesday.
Our model has Murphy making 3.11 threes on 7.7 attempts. Given the +120 price on the over, this bet is a great bet to zero in on.

Tyrese Haliburton Under 19.5 Points (-120)​

Tyrese Haliburton has taken a step forward this year, averaging career-best marks in both points (20.4) and assists (10.1). His play is a big reason why an Indiana Pacers team that was expected to be among the league's worst is sitting at 21-17.
But Haliburton has a really difficult matchup tonight versus the Philadelphia 76ers.
Philly is holding the point guard position to just 20.4 points per game, a league-low number. The Sixers (27th in pace) are also a huge pace-down matchup for the Pacers (6th).
We project Haliburton to net 18.8 points.

Jaden Ivey Over 3.5 Assists (+112)​

This is another plus-money prop our algorithm likes.
Jaden Ivey and the Detroit Pistons are on the road versus the Golden State Warriors. The Dubs (1st in pace) present a pace-up spot for the Pistons (16th), and the Warriors are permitting 5.2 dimes per night to two-guards, which is tied for the ninth-most.
Ivey's scoring has tapered off lately, but his assist numbers have been solid. He's dished out at least four helpers in five of the last six games, and he's averaging 4.0 assists per game for the campaign.
While there's some blowout risk given that Golden State has been playing well recently, the Pistons are just 6.5-point 'dogs.
Our model has Ivey finishing with 4.5 assists today. That makes the over a smashing bet, especially at the +112 price.

 

[MAGAking1]

Kelly Olynyk Under 12.5 Points (-120)​

The Houston Rockets are a pretty friendly matchup in most regards, but they've been tough on bigs. That has me on the under on Kelly Olynyk's point prop.

For the year, Houston is limiting the center position to 20.6 points per game, the ninth-fewest. Houston (17th in pace) is also a slight pace-down spot for the Utah Jazz (14th).

Olynyk has netted 12 or fewer points in four of his past five games. In two meetings with the Rockets this season, he's averaging 8.5 points per night.

Our model projects Olynyk to score 11.7 points on Thursday.

Paolo Banchero Under 20.5 Points (-114)​

There are a few reasons to back the under on Paolo Banchero's points prop.

For one, his scoring numbers have dropped as the year has progressed. His per-game scoring average has fallen with each passing month, bottoming out at 19.1 points per game in January.

In addition to that, he has a brutal matchup tonight with the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis is holding the small forward position to 21.1 points per night, the sixth-fewest, and they sit third in defensive rating.

Banchero has gone under 20.5 points in seven of his past 11 games.

We project the Orlando Magic's star rookie to record 18.7 points in this one.

Michael Porter Jr. Over 5.5 Rebounds (-122)​

This is another spot where our model sees solid value.

Michael Porter Jr. is at home versus the Los Angeles Clippers. LA is a really good defense (and team), but they've been giving on the glass to small forwards, permitting 7.9 rebounds per game to the position, the sixth-most.

MPJ has snagged at least six boards in four of his last six outings, and our projections have him amassing 6.4 boards on Thursday.

 

[MAGAking1]

Can I ask where you are pulling this data from? I subscribed to betprep, but it hasn't been above 50% win rate plus they don't acct for injuries.

numberfire

 

[tonyd85]

numberfire

Really? Numberfire is cheap, only like 10 bucks a month. Usually when sites like that are reasonably priced it doesnt have the quality of data, hence i use rotowire and its cheap but its limited in what I can use it for.

 

[tonyd85]

I just subscribed for 10 bucks. Any tips or ideas on how to best use it?

 

[MAGAking1]

I just subscribed for 10 bucks. Any tips or ideas on how to best use it?

LOL, you will have to tell me about it. I only use the free data.

Let us know if it helped you.

 

[tonyd85]

LOL, you will have to tell me about it. I only use the free data.

Let us know if it helped you.

HAHA you got me. lol
If you need any data behind the paywall I will post it.
What about that Darko prop bet site you have posted before?
I logged into it a few times but the functionality takes some doing imo

 

[MAGAking1]

HAHA you got me. lol
If you need any data behind the paywall I will post it.
What about that Darko prop bet site you have posted before?
I logged into it a few times but the functionality takes some doing imo

not sure what you are referring to.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Friday

Mikal Bridges Over 15.5 Points (-106)​

The Miami Heat are a really nice matchup for Mikal Bridges.

Miami has been smashed by small forwards this season. For the year, they are giving up 27.7 points per game to the position -- that's a league-high mark by 3.4 points. Miami also surrenders the league's second-highest three-point attempt rate overall (43.0%), which could lead to a few more three-point tries for Bridges.

The Phoenix Suns are still without Devin Booker, which is another reason to back the over on Bridges' points prop. With Booker off the floor this season, Bridges' usage rate jumps 2.1 percentage points, according to CourtIQ.

Our model has Bridges netting 16.1 points on Friday night.

Ayo Dosunmu Under 10.5 Points (-122)​

The Philadelphia 76ers has been a brutal matchup for point guards all season.

We cashed the under on Tyrese Haliburton's points prop in a clash with Philly on Wednesday, a game in which Haliburton scored only 16 points despite playing 39 minutes in an overtime affair. We can do the same with Ayo Dosunmu's points prop tonight.

The point guard position is totaling only 20.4 points per night versus the Sixers, a league-low number.

While Dosunmu has scored at least 11 points in four straight, he's been taking an unusually high amount of shots of late, averaging 10.8 field goal attempts per night in that span. For the year, he's shooting just 7.9 times per game.

We project Dosunmu to shoot just 7.4 times tonight and have him scoring only 9.5 points. The under is the side to be on.

Jaden Ivey Over 3.5 Assists (-128)​

Jaden Ivey's assist props have been kind to us. We've hit the over on his assists prop each of the last two times we've targeted it. This is a great spot for us to do it once more.

Ivey is taking on the San Antonio Spurs. The tanking Spurs are dead last in defensive rating and are playing at the 10th-fastest pace. In general, they're a friendly matchup for overs, and this game has a 236.0-point total and 1.5-point spread, which only helps matters.

Ivey has at least four dimes in six of his previous seven games. Our algorithm has him recording 4.6 assists in this one.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Monday

Daniel Gafford Over 11.5 Points (+104)​

Daniel Gafford is taking on the New Orleans Pelicans, and the Pels have been generous to centers all year.

For the season, New Orleans is permitting 23.0 points per game to centers, which is the sixth-most.

Gafford has started nine straight games and has netted at least 12 points in five of those nine starts, including two of the previous three.

Our model projects Gafford for 13.5 points tonight. Between the projection, matchup and plus-money price, this prop is a great one to target.

Paolo Banchero Under 1.5 Made Threes (-113)​

The Sacramento Kings are not a good defensive team (sixth-worst in defensive rating), but they do an excellent job limiting three-point attempts. That has me on the under on Paolo Banchero's three-point prop.

On the year, the Kings are giving up a three-point attempt rate of only 34.8%, the second-lowest clip. They have surrendered just 2.6 three-point makes per game to the small forward position.

Banchero has hit multiple treys in three straight, but he isn't shooting the three-ball well overall this season. He's making just 31.9% from deep, compared to a 38.1% mark over the past three. He also doesn't usually take many shots from beyond the arc, sporting a measly 26.0% three-point attempt rate for the campaign.

We project the Orlando Magic star rookie to go 1.2 of 3.8 from three on Monday night.

Harrison Barnes Over 1.5 Made Threes (-115)​

It's a completely different story on the flip side of that Kings-Magic clash. It should be bombs away tonight for the Kings as Orlando gives up a three-point attempt rate of 43.3%, the second-highest.

The Magic have had a hard time containing small forwards from three, allowing 9.2 three-point attempts per game to the position, which is the third-most.

That puts me on Harrison Barnes. After opening the year in a shooting funk, the veteran wing has picked it up. He's sunk at least two trifectas in four straight games and is making 39.3% of his threes in that stretch.

Our algorithm has Barnes making 1.9 threes on 5.1 tries today

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Tue

Ivica Zubac Over 9.5 Rebounds (-148)​

There's a fairly large discrepancy between this line and our projections. Our model sees Ivica Zubac having a huge night on the glass tonight versus the Dallas Mavericks, projecting him for 12.0 boards.

The matchup certainly helps as Dallas sits dead last in rebound rate this season.

Zubac's minutes have been all over the place of late -- 37, 21, 15 and 34 over his past four. We project him to get 34 minutes tonight, and as long as he gets solid run, this over should hit. Zubac is averaging 13.0 rebounds per 36 minutes for the year, and he's snagged at least 10 rebounds in four of the past five games in which he's logged at least 30 minutes.

While the -148 juice isn't fun, this bet checks a lot of boxes.

Josh Hart Over 0.5 Made Threes (-142)​

The Orlando Magic give up a lot of three-point tries, and that has me on Josh Hart to sink at least one triple today.

For the season, Orlando is allowing a three-point attempt rate of 43.4%, the second-highest mark. Small forwards are taking 9.2 three-point shots per game against Orlando, the third-most.

We picked on the Magic's three-point D last night and cashed the over on Harrison Barnes' made threes prop. Barnes' line was at 1.5 (-115 on the over), and he ended up drilling six three-pointers.

Hart doesn't take many threes, which is why his line is at 0.5, but he's made at least one trifecta in three of his past five outings, including two straight. This matchup should help him get a few looks from deep.

Our model has Hart going 1.3 of 3.6 from three on Tuesday.

Jordan Clarkson Under 20.5 Points (-111)​

Jordan Clarkson is in a tough spot tonight.

No team in the league has been tougher on two-guards than the Cleveland Cavaliers have. Cleveland is holding the shooting guard position to 19.2 points per game, the fewest in the NBA. They're also giving up just 7.2 three-point attempts per game to the position, the second-fewest.

The Cavs' defense is dang good overall as they're tied for first in defensive rating. They're playing at the slowest pace, too, which is another thing that pushes me toward the under.

Clarkson has gone for fewer than 20 points in three consecutive games, although he netted at least 21 points in eight straight before those three.

Taking on a slow-paced Cavs team that is excellent on D, Clarkson is projected to score 19.6 points, per our algorithm. The under is the side to be on.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for wed

Malik Monk Over 1.5 Made Threes (-128)​

Malik Monk is taking on the Houston Rockets, and it's a great spot for him to drop in a couple of threes.

Houston is surrendering a three-point attempt rate of 44.7%. That's the highest mark in the NBA. Shooting guards are getting off a league-high 10.9 three-point attempts per game against Houston.

This game should see a ton of points as both defenses are in the bottom seven in defensive rating. The total is up at 237.0 points.

Monk is shooting an uncharacteristically low 31.8% from three. He's made 39.1% and 40.1% of his threes in the previous two seasons, and DARKO has him as an expected 36.9% three-point shooter this season. In short, he's due to make some more three-balls.

We project Monk to go 2.2 of 5.9 from three tonight.

Jalen Brunson Under 23.5 Points (-105)​

Jalen Brunson is on a heater. He's netted at least 24 points in four straight games, with outbursts of 44 and 38 during that four-game run.

But that's come with RJ Barrett out, and Barrett has been upgraded to questionable for tonight, putting him in a position to return to the lineup. If that happens, it's a blow to Brunson's scoring outlook.

For the year, Brunson's usage rate is 31.8% with Barrett off the floor, per CourtIQ, and he scores 28.0 points per 36 minutes in the split. With Barrett on the court, Brunson scores 21.8 points per 36 on a 25.8% usage rate. That's a big difference.

Prior to the last four games, Brunson had scored 24-plus points in just two of his previous 14 games.

The matchup is a rough one, too, as the Indiana Pacers have held point guards to 21.2 points per game, the second-fewest.

Given Brunson's recent scoring outputs, if his points prop is set this low, it seems like oddsmakers are counting on Barrett to play tonight. Even with that, our model thinks the under is still a good bet as we have Brunson putting up 22.6 points.

Desmond Bane Over 2.5 Made Threes (-132)​

The Memphis Grizzlies should fill it up tonight against the San Antonio Spurs, and their 126.0-point implied total is a slate-best mark by 2.25 points. The Spurs are dead last in defensive rating and play at the 10th-fastest pace.

That has me scanning the Grizzles' player props, and this looks like a good one to pounce on.

Desmond Bane is an elite shooter, hitting 42.9% from beyond the arc this season. He's averaging 3.1 made threes per night. He's sunk at least three trifectas in three of his previous five games, including a three-for-five effort from deep last time out against these same Spurs.

Our projections have Bane making 3.2 treys on 7.6 tries on Wednesday.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Thur

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 28.5 Points (-110)​

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on the road at the Philadelphia 76ers, and it's a difficult matchup for him.

The Sixers have been brutally tough against point guards when it comes to scoring, limiting the position to a league-low 20.5 points per game. SGA faced Philadelphia on New Year's Eve and struggled mightily, netting only 14 points in 32 minutes and shooting 4 for 15 from the field.

On top of that, Philly is fourth in defensive rating, and they are a huge pace-down spot for OKC. The 76ers are 25th in pace while the Thunder sit 4th.

There's also some blowout risk in this one as the Sixers are 9.5-point favorites.

While SGA can go off in any matchup, there are a lot of things pointing to him not having a huge scoring night. Our model projects him for 27.4 points, and the under is the side I'll be on.

Pat Connaughton Over 2.5 Made Threes (+122)​

Pat Connaughton has been letting it fly from deep, hoisting at least six treys in six of his past seven games. He's taken 17 threes over the last two games.

That's a good place to start for this over.

The matchup with the Miami Heat helps quite a bit, too. Miami has surrendered a 42.6% three-point attempt rate, the third-highest, including a league-high 9.7 three-point tried per night to small forwards. Connaughton should be able to find plenty of chances to shoot the three-ball.

Lastly, Giannis Antetokounmpo is out for the Milwaukee Bucks, which obviously shakes up the Bucks' usage. With Giannis and Khris Middleton -- who is also out -- off the floor this season, Connaughton owns a 15.4% usage rate and hits 2.70 treys per 36 minutes, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ.

The minutes should be there tonight -- we peg him to get 33 minutes -- and we have him draining 2.5 triples on 6.7 attempts. That's right at this line, and if the pricing was more 50/50, I'd stay away. But the over is +124, and the under is priced at -156.

I think the over is worth a roll of the dice at plus-money.

OG Anunoby Over 5.5 Rebounds (-130)​

OG Anunoby is playing the Charlotte Hornets on Thursday night. He just faced the Hornets on Tuesday in his most recent game and finished with three rebounds.

But there are reasons to back the over.

Prior to that three-rebound affair, Anunoby had snagged at least eight rebounds in three of his last four games. He also played just 31 minutes on Tuesday, his fewest over his past five games. He'd logged at least 39 minutes in three of the past four games before the last time out. The three-board game tied for his fewest rebounds in a game over his past 14 contests.

Charlotte isn't good on the glass. They're 19th in rebound rate (49.5%) and are giving up the 10th-most rebounds per night to power forwards (10.2).

For the season, Anunoby is pulling down an average of 5.9 rebounds per game and 5.7 boards per 36 minutes.

We project him to play 37 minutes and get 5.9 rebounds. I'm a little more bullish about the over than our model is.