3 for Wednesday
The Philadelphia 76ers boast a juicy implied total of 120.0 points, and the Magic sit 22nd in defensive rating. Orlando is surrendering the fifth-most assists per night to the point guard position (9.4), and Harden ranks third in the NBA in potential assists per game over the last 15 games (17.8)
Blowout risk is a worry as the Sixers are 9.5-point home favorites, although Orlando just won by 10 in this same matchup on Monday.
We project Harden for 10.7 assists, and I don't hate Harden to record a triple-double, which is +700.
The Nets are a solid 11th in defensive rating, and they've stifled point guards this year, limiting them to 23.3 points per game, the fourth-fewest. The Nets (21st in pace) are also a slight pace-down spot for the Boston Celtics (17th).
White is averaging 10.3 points per game on the season. He's gone over this line in three straight, but before that run, he'd scored 11 or fewer points in 9 of 11 games. He's got just an 18.1% usage rate this year with Marcus Smart off the floor, per LineupIQ.
Our model has White scoring 10.8 points on Wednesday, and the under is the side I'll be on.
Dejounte Murray has really ramped up his three-point usage since coming to the Atlanta Hawks. He's taking 5.6 treys per game and owns a 30.5% three-point attempt rate -- both of which are career-high marks my a good distance.
But I like his chances of going under on this prop today a lot better than the +120 price indicates.
Murray has made one or fewer threes in half of his past six games, and his matchup with the Phoenix Suns isn't a friendly one for three-pointers. The Suns are giving up the fifth-lowest three-point attempt rate (36.2%), and they're allowing only 8.1 three-point attempts per game to shooting guards, the sixth-fewest.
We project Murray right at this line, forecasting him to make 1.6 threes on 4.8 tries. If this prop was priced evenly, I'd stay away, but with the under at +120 and the over at -154, the under is worth a roll of the dice.
James Harden Over 9.5 Assists (-150)
James Harden should have a big night tonight against the Orlando Magic, and I like the over on his assists prop.The Philadelphia 76ers boast a juicy implied total of 120.0 points, and the Magic sit 22nd in defensive rating. Orlando is surrendering the fifth-most assists per night to the point guard position (9.4), and Harden ranks third in the NBA in potential assists per game over the last 15 games (17.8)
Blowout risk is a worry as the Sixers are 9.5-point home favorites, although Orlando just won by 10 in this same matchup on Monday.
We project Harden for 10.7 assists, and I don't hate Harden to record a triple-double, which is +700.
Derrick White Under 11.5 Points (-112)
Derrick White has a home date with the Brooklyn Nets, and it's a tough matchup for him.The Nets are a solid 11th in defensive rating, and they've stifled point guards this year, limiting them to 23.3 points per game, the fourth-fewest. The Nets (21st in pace) are also a slight pace-down spot for the Boston Celtics (17th).
White is averaging 10.3 points per game on the season. He's gone over this line in three straight, but before that run, he'd scored 11 or fewer points in 9 of 11 games. He's got just an 18.1% usage rate this year with Marcus Smart off the floor, per LineupIQ.
Our model has White scoring 10.8 points on Wednesday, and the under is the side I'll be on.
Dejounte Murray Under 1.5 Made Threes (+120)
This is a plus-money prop I can get behind.Dejounte Murray has really ramped up his three-point usage since coming to the Atlanta Hawks. He's taking 5.6 treys per game and owns a 30.5% three-point attempt rate -- both of which are career-high marks my a good distance.
But I like his chances of going under on this prop today a lot better than the +120 price indicates.
Murray has made one or fewer threes in half of his past six games, and his matchup with the Phoenix Suns isn't a friendly one for three-pointers. The Suns are giving up the fifth-lowest three-point attempt rate (36.2%), and they're allowing only 8.1 three-point attempts per game to shooting guards, the sixth-fewest.
We project Murray right at this line, forecasting him to make 1.6 threes on 4.8 tries. If this prop was priced evenly, I'd stay away, but with the under at +120 and the over at -154, the under is worth a roll of the dice.
3 for Thur
Rozier is up against the Chicago Bulls, and the Bulls allow a lot of three-point tries. For the year, Chicago is giving up a three-point attempt rate of 41.7%, tied for the fifth-highest. They're permitting the eighth-most three-point attempts per night to shooting guards (9.3).
Rozier is letting them fly from deep. He's jacked up at least eight three-balls in eight straight games. He just played Chicago on January 26th and went 4 of 8 from three.
Our model has Rozier going 3.2 of 8.9 from three today.
I don't mind the over on LaMelo Ball's three-point prop, either. It's set at 3.5 with a -138 price on the over. We project him to make 3.8 threes on 9.8 tries.
Dallas is limiting the center position to 19.6 points per night, the third-fewest. Centers are taking only 13.0 shots per night against Dallas, the second-fewest.
On top of that, the Mavs (29th in pace) are a big pace-down matchup for the New Orleans Pelicans (14th).
Valanciunas has been held to 14 or fewer points in four of his previous six games. The return of Brandon Ingram is a blow to JV's scoring output as Valanciunas is scoring 1.93 fewer points per 36 minutes with Ingram and C.J. McCollum on the court this season, per CourtIQ. His usage rate drops 2.5 percentage points in the split.
Our model has Valanciunas netting 14.0 points on Thursday night.
Milwaukee has been excellent defensively this year, sitting third in defensive rating, and they're really good at limiting three-point shots. For the year, the Bucks have given up a three-point attempt rate of 36.3%, the sixth-fewest. They're allowing just 6.9 three-point attempts per game to small forwards, the third-fewest.
Paul George has hit more than three trifectas in just five of his last eight games. We have him hitting 2.7 of 7.2 from three tonight. I think the under has a better chance to hit than this +124 price implies. It's worth a roll of the dice.
Terry Rozier Over 2.5 Made Threes (-125)
This is a great spot for Terry Rozier to have a big day from three.Rozier is up against the Chicago Bulls, and the Bulls allow a lot of three-point tries. For the year, Chicago is giving up a three-point attempt rate of 41.7%, tied for the fifth-highest. They're permitting the eighth-most three-point attempts per night to shooting guards (9.3).
Rozier is letting them fly from deep. He's jacked up at least eight three-balls in eight straight games. He just played Chicago on January 26th and went 4 of 8 from three.
Our model has Rozier going 3.2 of 8.9 from three today.
I don't mind the over on LaMelo Ball's three-point prop, either. It's set at 3.5 with a -138 price on the over. We project him to make 3.8 threes on 9.8 tries.
Jonas Valanciunas Under 14.5 Points (-114)
Jonas Valanciunas draws a tough matchup tonight against the Dallas Mavericks, and it has me on the under on his points prop.Dallas is limiting the center position to 19.6 points per night, the third-fewest. Centers are taking only 13.0 shots per night against Dallas, the second-fewest.
On top of that, the Mavs (29th in pace) are a big pace-down matchup for the New Orleans Pelicans (14th).
Valanciunas has been held to 14 or fewer points in four of his previous six games. The return of Brandon Ingram is a blow to JV's scoring output as Valanciunas is scoring 1.93 fewer points per 36 minutes with Ingram and C.J. McCollum on the court this season, per CourtIQ. His usage rate drops 2.5 percentage points in the split.
Our model has Valanciunas netting 14.0 points on Thursday night.
Paul George Under 2.5 Made Threes (+124)
The Los Angeles Clippers are on the road at the Milwaukee Bucks, and it should be a fun one.Milwaukee has been excellent defensively this year, sitting third in defensive rating, and they're really good at limiting three-point shots. For the year, the Bucks have given up a three-point attempt rate of 36.3%, the sixth-fewest. They're allowing just 6.9 three-point attempts per game to small forwards, the third-fewest.
Paul George has hit more than three trifectas in just five of his last eight games. We have him hitting 2.7 of 7.2 from three tonight. I think the under has a better chance to hit than this +124 price implies. It's worth a roll of the dice.
3 for Friday
Of course, the lines are set with this in mind, but I think there's still some value on Jaden Ivey's assist prop.
Ivey has at least five assists in six of his past eight games, and one of the exceptions came last time out, when Ivey logged just 21 minutes due to foul trouble. The rookie's shift to a point-guard role has given his assist totals a boost. He's averaging a robust 6.3 dimes per night in that eight-game span.
I'm not sure the market has fully adjusted for Ivey's new role, and this matchup only helps matters.
We project Ivey to record 5.3 assists on Friday.
The Jazz have been excellent all year at preventing three-point tries. Their three-point attempt rate allowed of 35.1% is tied for a league-low mark. Utah is giving up just 6.8 three-point shots per game to small forwards, the second-fewest.
De'Andre Hunter isn't a high-volume shooter as is. He's taken just six total three-balls over the last two games, and he's hit one or fewer threes in four of his past seven outings.
Our model projects him right at this line -- 1.6 makes on 4.4 attempts -- and the under is the side I'll be on.
The matchup versus Houston is probably why the line is set where it is. The Rockets are first in rebound rate and have conceded just 13.1 boards per night to centers, the third-fewest.
But Houston (16th in pace) is a sizable pace-up spot for the Toronto Raptors (26th), and Siakam has pulled down at least seven rebounds in 11 of his past 13 games. He's also played a ton of minutes lately -- at least 38 in four straight.
For the year, Siakam is averaging 8.0 rebounds per game.
Give me the over.
Jaden Ivey Over 4.5 Assists (-152)
Tonight's Detroit Pistons-Charlotte Hornets game should be a very over-friendly environment. The over/under is 240.0, and the spread is just a single point.Of course, the lines are set with this in mind, but I think there's still some value on Jaden Ivey's assist prop.
Ivey has at least five assists in six of his past eight games, and one of the exceptions came last time out, when Ivey logged just 21 minutes due to foul trouble. The rookie's shift to a point-guard role has given his assist totals a boost. He's averaging a robust 6.3 dimes per night in that eight-game span.
I'm not sure the market has fully adjusted for Ivey's new role, and this matchup only helps matters.
We project Ivey to record 5.3 assists on Friday.
De'Andre Hunter Under 1.5 Made Threes (-115)
The Atlanta Hawks-Utah Jazz clash is expected to be another close, high-scoring matchup as the total is 242.0 and the spread sits at 1.0. But I think the market has overcorrected a bit on this line as a result of the game environment.The Jazz have been excellent all year at preventing three-point tries. Their three-point attempt rate allowed of 35.1% is tied for a league-low mark. Utah is giving up just 6.8 three-point shots per game to small forwards, the second-fewest.
De'Andre Hunter isn't a high-volume shooter as is. He's taken just six total three-balls over the last two games, and he's hit one or fewer threes in four of his past seven outings.
Our model projects him right at this line -- 1.6 makes on 4.4 attempts -- and the under is the side I'll be on.
Pascal Siakam Over 6.5 Rebounds (-132)
Our model differs fairly significantly from this line. We have Pascal Siakam projected for 8.2 rebounds tonight versus the Houston Rockets. It's rare for the gap between any prop line and our projections to be this big.The matchup versus Houston is probably why the line is set where it is. The Rockets are first in rebound rate and have conceded just 13.1 boards per night to centers, the third-fewest.
But Houston (16th in pace) is a sizable pace-up spot for the Toronto Raptors (26th), and Siakam has pulled down at least seven rebounds in 11 of his past 13 games. He's also played a ton of minutes lately -- at least 38 in four straight.
For the year, Siakam is averaging 8.0 rebounds per game.
Give me the over.
3 for Monday
This line being at 6.5 with a +116 price is likely due to blowout risk as the Boston Celtics are 11.5-point road favorites over the Detroit Pistons. While a blowout is obviously a very real concern for this over, I still like Brown's chances to get at least seven rebounds.
The Pistons (12th in pace) are a slight pace-up matchup for Boston (17th), and Detroit is just 24th in rebound rate. The Pistons are giving up the 11th-most rebounds per night to shooting guards.
Our model has Brown totaling 6.6 boards. If this was priced as more of a 50/50 bet, I'd stay away, but with plus-money on the over, that's the side I'm on.
But I think there's a better chance Draymond Green gets a triple-double than what the +900 price implies.
The matchup and game environment should help. Green is taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder. Both OKC and the Golden State Warriors sit in the top three in pace. The total is a juicy 234.0 points with a 4.0-point spread.
OKC has allowed 11.0 rebounds per night to power forwards, the 3rd-most, as well as the 10th-most points per game to the position (23.4). Green also averages 0.55 more boards per 36 minutes with Stephen Curry -- who is out -- off the floor this year, per CourtIQ.
While Draymond isn't a lock to get to double-figures in any of points, rebounds or assists, we have him projected to get fairly close to a triple-double as we peg him to amass 9.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 7.9 dimes. With this priced at +900, I think it's worth a roll of the dice.
The Wiz will see the Cleveland Cavaliers, and it's a rough matchup for Morris.
The Cavaliers are first in defensive rating and play at the league's slowest pace. On top of that, Cleveland is holding the point guard position to just 23.0 points per game, the third-fewest. Point guards are getting only 18.9 shots per game against the Cavs, tied for the fifth-fewest.
Morris has netted 11 or fewer points in three of his past four contests. He's scoring 10.5 points per game for the campaign.
We project him to get 11.1 points today.
Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 Rebounds (+116)
Jaylen Brown is averaging 7.1 rebounds per night for the season. He has snagged at least eight rebounds in six of his last eight games, including in three of his past four outings. He needs just seven for this to cash.This line being at 6.5 with a +116 price is likely due to blowout risk as the Boston Celtics are 11.5-point road favorites over the Detroit Pistons. While a blowout is obviously a very real concern for this over, I still like Brown's chances to get at least seven rebounds.
The Pistons (12th in pace) are a slight pace-up matchup for Boston (17th), and Detroit is just 24th in rebound rate. The Pistons are giving up the 11th-most rebounds per night to shooting guards.
Our model has Brown totaling 6.6 boards. If this was priced as more of a 50/50 bet, I'd stay away, but with plus-money on the over, that's the side I'm on.
Draymond Green to Record a Triple-Double (+900)
This one is priced at +900 for a reason -- it probably won't happen.But I think there's a better chance Draymond Green gets a triple-double than what the +900 price implies.
The matchup and game environment should help. Green is taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder. Both OKC and the Golden State Warriors sit in the top three in pace. The total is a juicy 234.0 points with a 4.0-point spread.
OKC has allowed 11.0 rebounds per night to power forwards, the 3rd-most, as well as the 10th-most points per game to the position (23.4). Green also averages 0.55 more boards per 36 minutes with Stephen Curry -- who is out -- off the floor this year, per CourtIQ.
While Draymond isn't a lock to get to double-figures in any of points, rebounds or assists, we have him projected to get fairly close to a triple-double as we peg him to amass 9.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 7.9 dimes. With this priced at +900, I think it's worth a roll of the dice.
Monte Morris Under 11.5 Points (-120)
Bradley Beal is listed on the Washington Wizards' injury report but went through Monday morning shootaround, which is a positive sign for his status. If Beal plays, I like the under on Monte Morris' points prop.The Wiz will see the Cleveland Cavaliers, and it's a rough matchup for Morris.
The Cavaliers are first in defensive rating and play at the league's slowest pace. On top of that, Cleveland is holding the point guard position to just 23.0 points per game, the third-fewest. Point guards are getting only 18.9 shots per game against the Cavs, tied for the fifth-fewest.
Morris has netted 11 or fewer points in three of his past four contests. He's scoring 10.5 points per game for the campaign.
We project him to get 11.1 points today.
Tue prop ideas
The Pels are giving up the sixth-most three-point tries per night to point guards (8.8), which suits Young's skillset. The game's 237.0-point total and 1.0-point spread don't hurt things, either, when it comes to this over.
Young has dropped in at least 27 points in three of his past four games. He's scoring 27.0 points per game for the season.
A lot of boxes are checked here.
The Grizz are holding the center position to 12.8 boards per game, the second-fewest. They rank third overall in rebound rate. The Bulls rank 21st.
Vucevic is averaging 11.2 rebounds per game on the year and 11.3 on the second leg of back-to-backs, which is the situation tonight for Chicago after they played on Monday.
Given the back-to-back and matchup with Memphis, the blowout risk is very real in this one. Chicago is a 9.5-point road underdog and could be without DeMar DeRozan, who is questionable. A blowout would likely result in fewer minutes for Vucevic and is another reason to back the under.
Trae Young Over 26.5 Points (-111)
Trae Young should be able to score well tonight against the New Orleans Pelicans, and that has me on the over for his points prop.The Pels are giving up the sixth-most three-point tries per night to point guards (8.8), which suits Young's skillset. The game's 237.0-point total and 1.0-point spread don't hurt things, either, when it comes to this over.
Young has dropped in at least 27 points in three of his past four games. He's scoring 27.0 points per game for the season.
A lot of boxes are checked here.
Nikola Vucevic Under 11.5 Rebounds (-102)
The Chicago Bulls are on the road at the Memphis Grizzlies, and it's a difficult rebounding matchup for Nikola Vucevic.The Grizz are holding the center position to 12.8 boards per game, the second-fewest. They rank third overall in rebound rate. The Bulls rank 21st.
Vucevic is averaging 11.2 rebounds per game on the year and 11.3 on the second leg of back-to-backs, which is the situation tonight for Chicago after they played on Monday.
Given the back-to-back and matchup with Memphis, the blowout risk is very real in this one. Chicago is a 9.5-point road underdog and could be without DeMar DeRozan, who is questionable. A blowout would likely result in fewer minutes for Vucevic and is another reason to back the under.
3 for Wed
Philly has limited the point-guard position to just 22.7 points per night, the second-fewest in the NBA. They're allowing the fewest three-point shots per game to floor generals (7.0).
White usually isn't much of a scorer anyway, averaging 10.8 points per game for the campaign. He has a meager 14.2% usage rate when Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are on the floor, per CourtIQ, and is scoring just 12.5 points per 36 minutes in that split. Both Brown and Tatum are expected to play today.
We project White to net 12.1 points, well under this line.
Minnesota is giving up only 13.3 rebounds per game to the center position, the seventh-fewest.
On top of that, Kessler's minutes have been all over the place lately as he's played 27, 18, 30, 25 and 18 minutes over his past five. That span coincides with the return of Kelly Olynyk. Olynyk's minutes have risen of late, with the veteran big logging 30 and 28 minutes over the past two contests, getting more run than Kessler in each.
Kessler has reached double-digit rebounds only two times over his past seven games. We project him to pull down 8.6 boards on Wednesday.
Houston allows a three-point attempt rate of 44.3%, the highest in the NBA. Shooting guards are taking a league-high 10.9 three-point shots per night against the Rockets.
Monk usually doesn't need much encouragement to shoot from three. He played Houston last time out and went 4 of 7 from beyond the arc. He's battled Houston three times this year and has sunk at least two triples in every meeting.
Our model has Monk hitting 2.0 threes on 5.4 tries tonight.
Derek White Under 14.5 Points (-128)
The Philadelphia 76ers have been brutally tough on point guards all year, and that puts me on the under on Derrick White's points prop.Philly has limited the point-guard position to just 22.7 points per night, the second-fewest in the NBA. They're allowing the fewest three-point shots per game to floor generals (7.0).
White usually isn't much of a scorer anyway, averaging 10.8 points per game for the campaign. He has a meager 14.2% usage rate when Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are on the floor, per CourtIQ, and is scoring just 12.5 points per 36 minutes in that split. Both Brown and Tatum are expected to play today.
We project White to net 12.1 points, well under this line.
Walker Kessler Under 9.5 Rebounds (+112)
Walker Kessler is taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves, and it should be a difficult spot for him to amass a ton of boards.Minnesota is giving up only 13.3 rebounds per game to the center position, the seventh-fewest.
On top of that, Kessler's minutes have been all over the place lately as he's played 27, 18, 30, 25 and 18 minutes over his past five. That span coincides with the return of Kelly Olynyk. Olynyk's minutes have risen of late, with the veteran big logging 30 and 28 minutes over the past two contests, getting more run than Kessler in each.
Kessler has reached double-digit rebounds only two times over his past seven games. We project him to pull down 8.6 boards on Wednesday.
Malik Monk Over 1.5 Made Threes (-118)
Malik Monk is up against the Houston Rockets, a team that surrenders a ton of shots from deep.Houston allows a three-point attempt rate of 44.3%, the highest in the NBA. Shooting guards are taking a league-high 10.9 three-point shots per night against the Rockets.
Monk usually doesn't need much encouragement to shoot from three. He played Houston last time out and went 4 of 7 from beyond the arc. He's battled Houston three times this year and has sunk at least two triples in every meeting.
Our model has Monk hitting 2.0 threes on 5.4 tries tonight.
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The site is Based on parlaying prop bets
The odds are not that great BUT maybe they are off enough in their numbers that I can win a little?
They have quite a bit of room for error though....
Lets see if I can turn this HUNDO into something
a couple for Thursday
Over the last 15 games, Orlando is giving up a three-point attempt rate of 43.3%, the second-highest in the league. That should help Jokic -- who doesn't normally take many triples -- fire off a few three-point shots tonight.
Jokic has made a three in five of his last nine games and went 1-for-4 from three-point land against the Magic earlier this season.
We project Jokic to make 1.3 threes on 3.8 attempts.
Maybe Thomas' red-hot run continues today, but our model loves the under.
Thomas is hitting 56.0% of his shots over the last three games, including that same 56.0% clip from three. Prior to this run, he was shooting 47.3% overall and 36.0% from beyond the arc, so he's bound to regress, especially from deep.
The same goes for his usage rate, which stands at a gaudy 42.1% over the last three. Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo are tied for the league lead in usage at a mark of 37.6%, and the Brooklyn Nets won't be quite as thin today with Dorian Finney-Smith and Spencer Dinwiddie set to play.
Our algorithm has Thomas scoring 20.8 points, well south of this line.
Nikola Jokic Over 0.5 Made Threes (-143)
Nikola Jokic needs to nail just one three-pointer to cash this bet, and I like his chances to do that in a clash with the Orlando Magic.Over the last 15 games, Orlando is giving up a three-point attempt rate of 43.3%, the second-highest in the league. That should help Jokic -- who doesn't normally take many triples -- fire off a few three-point shots tonight.
Jokic has made a three in five of his last nine games and went 1-for-4 from three-point land against the Magic earlier this season.
We project Jokic to make 1.3 threes on 3.8 attempts.
Cam Thomas Under 25.5 Points (-106)
Two weeks ago, I would've had a lot of questions if someone told me Cam Thomas' points prop was at 25.5. But that's where it's at after his incredible stretch, a run that's resulted in him netting at least 43 points in three straight games.Maybe Thomas' red-hot run continues today, but our model loves the under.
Thomas is hitting 56.0% of his shots over the last three games, including that same 56.0% clip from three. Prior to this run, he was shooting 47.3% overall and 36.0% from beyond the arc, so he's bound to regress, especially from deep.
The same goes for his usage rate, which stands at a gaudy 42.1% over the last three. Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo are tied for the league lead in usage at a mark of 37.6%, and the Brooklyn Nets won't be quite as thin today with Dorian Finney-Smith and Spencer Dinwiddie set to play.
Our algorithm has Thomas scoring 20.8 points, well south of this line.
3 for Friday
Jabari Smith is facing the Miami Heat, and it's a nice spot for him to fire off some treys. Miami has allowed a three-point attempt rate of 43.5% this season, the second-highest mark.
Smith takes 5.1 three-point shots per game as is, so given the matchup, we could see him jack up a bunch of threes on Friday.
We project the rookie to go 1.8 of 5.8 from deep. If this prop was priced more evenly, I'd look elsewhere, but with a +124 price on the over, it's worth a roll of the dice.
Utah is giving up a three-point attempt rate of 35.5%, the second-lowest. Power forwards are hoisting just 5.8 three-point tries per game against Utah, tied for the second-fewest.
Siakam has gone 5 for 9 from beyond the arc over his past two games, including 3 for 3 last time out. He's been hot. But prior to those two contests, Siakam had made one or fewer trifecta in five straight. One of those games was an outing against the Jazz in which he played 39.5 minutes and took zero threes.
Our projections have Siakam hitting 1.3 of 3.8 three-point tries tonight.
Cleveland has limited the point-guard position to only 22.6 points per game, the second-fewest. Against the Cavs, floor generals are taking just 18.7 shots (third-fewest) and 7.2 threes (tied for second-fewest) per night.
On top of that, the Cavaliers play at the league's slowest pace.
The New Orleans Pelicans recently got back Brandon Ingram, and that's a blow to McCollum's scoring. With Ingram on the floor, McCollum logs a 21.8% usage rate and nets 17.9 points per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ. That's a usage-rate drop of 2.5 percentage points and it's 2.2 fewer points per 36 minutes.
McCollum has gone for fewer than 22 points in three of his past five games, and we have him doing it again, forecasting him to score 20.5 points.
Jabari Smith Over 1.5 Made Threes (+124)
This is a good plus-money prop to take a shot on.Jabari Smith is facing the Miami Heat, and it's a nice spot for him to fire off some treys. Miami has allowed a three-point attempt rate of 43.5% this season, the second-highest mark.
Smith takes 5.1 three-point shots per game as is, so given the matchup, we could see him jack up a bunch of threes on Friday.
We project the rookie to go 1.8 of 5.8 from deep. If this prop was priced more evenly, I'd look elsewhere, but with a +124 price on the over, it's worth a roll of the dice.
Pascal Siakam Under 1.5 Made Threes (-142)
On the opposite end of the three-point D spectrum, the Utah Jazz have done a great job preventing three-point attempts this season, and that has me on the under on Pascal Siakam's made threes.Utah is giving up a three-point attempt rate of 35.5%, the second-lowest. Power forwards are hoisting just 5.8 three-point tries per game against Utah, tied for the second-fewest.
Siakam has gone 5 for 9 from beyond the arc over his past two games, including 3 for 3 last time out. He's been hot. But prior to those two contests, Siakam had made one or fewer trifecta in five straight. One of those games was an outing against the Jazz in which he played 39.5 minutes and took zero threes.
Our projections have Siakam hitting 1.3 of 3.8 three-point tries tonight.
C.J. McCollum Under 21.5 Points (-115)
The Cleveland Cavaliers are a tough matchup for point guards, putting C.J. McCollum in a difficult spot today.Cleveland has limited the point-guard position to only 22.6 points per game, the second-fewest. Against the Cavs, floor generals are taking just 18.7 shots (third-fewest) and 7.2 threes (tied for second-fewest) per night.
On top of that, the Cavaliers play at the league's slowest pace.
The New Orleans Pelicans recently got back Brandon Ingram, and that's a blow to McCollum's scoring. With Ingram on the floor, McCollum logs a 21.8% usage rate and nets 17.9 points per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ. That's a usage-rate drop of 2.5 percentage points and it's 2.2 fewer points per 36 minutes.
McCollum has gone for fewer than 22 points in three of his past five games, and we have him doing it again, forecasting him to score 20.5 points.
Their "Flex Pay" scheme is kinda wonky and I would normally NEVER bet into it ...5/5 pays 10to1, 4/5 pays 2to1 and 2.5 pays .4 to 1
(payouts include your stake)
BUT tonight is a freebie they are doing..... so whatever your net loss they give you a betting credit for....these are Fantasy Points totals
this is the scoring chart for those not familiar with fantasy basketaball
(payouts include your stake)
BUT tonight is a freebie they are doing..... so whatever your net loss they give you a betting credit for....these are Fantasy Points totals
this is the scoring chart for those not familiar with fantasy basketaball
3 for Monday
Doncic is up against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and Minnesota is doing a great job preventing three-point tries of late. Over the last 15 games, the T-Wolves are giving up a three-point attempt rate of 33.6%, the second-lowest clip in the league.
Luka has made exactly two triples in each of his past two games, and while the sample size is really small, he's seen a drop in usage when sharing the court with Kyrie Irving -- as you'd expect. With those two on the floor (29.9-minute sample), Doncic sports a usage rate of 28.4% -- down 2.9 percentage points from his usual mark -- and is nailing just 2.4 threes per 36 minutes, per CourtIQ.
Our model projects Doncic to hit 2.8 threes on 8.5 attempts. With an appealing +110 price on the under, it's worth a shot.
Maybe not.
This recent rebounding tear doesn't paint an accurate picture of the rookie's rebounding prowess this season. Banchero is averaging 6.8 rebounds per night for the year. Prior to the last seven games, he'd gone eight outings in a row with seven or fewer rebounds, getting six or fewer in seven of those games.
His matchup with the Chicago Bulls is a tough one rebounding-wise. Chicago has the sixth-best rebound rate across the past 10 games, and Banchero posted seven boards against the Bulls not that long ago (January 28th).
We project Banchero for 6.6 rebounds on Monday.
Beal has been under 23.5 points in 10 of his past 12 contests, with the two aforementioned red-hot nights being the only exceptions. He's scoring 22.5 points per game for the year.
The Golden State Warriors -- Beal's Monday opponent -- are 11th in defensive rating over the last 15 games, and for the season, Golden State is surrendering the eighth-fewest three-point shots per game to shooting guards (8.4).
Going by our numbers, there's a nice gap between this line and what we project. Our algorithm has Beal netting 21.1 points, 2.4 shy of this line.
Luka Doncic Under 2.5 Made Threes (+110)
It's always scary to take the under on anything with Luka Doncic, but this is a plus-money prop that makes some sense.Doncic is up against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and Minnesota is doing a great job preventing three-point tries of late. Over the last 15 games, the T-Wolves are giving up a three-point attempt rate of 33.6%, the second-lowest clip in the league.
Luka has made exactly two triples in each of his past two games, and while the sample size is really small, he's seen a drop in usage when sharing the court with Kyrie Irving -- as you'd expect. With those two on the floor (29.9-minute sample), Doncic sports a usage rate of 28.4% -- down 2.9 percentage points from his usual mark -- and is nailing just 2.4 threes per 36 minutes, per CourtIQ.
Our model projects Doncic to hit 2.8 threes on 8.5 attempts. With an appealing +110 price on the under, it's worth a shot.
Paolo Banchero Under 7.5 Rebounds (-132)
Paolo Banchero has been a monster on the glass of late, snagging at least eight boards in seven consecutive games. That sounds like a good reason to back the over, right?Maybe not.
This recent rebounding tear doesn't paint an accurate picture of the rookie's rebounding prowess this season. Banchero is averaging 6.8 rebounds per night for the year. Prior to the last seven games, he'd gone eight outings in a row with seven or fewer rebounds, getting six or fewer in seven of those games.
His matchup with the Chicago Bulls is a tough one rebounding-wise. Chicago has the sixth-best rebound rate across the past 10 games, and Banchero posted seven boards against the Bulls not that long ago (January 28th).
We project Banchero for 6.6 rebounds on Monday.
Bradley Beal Under 23.5 Points (-106)
While Bradley Beal has dropped 32 and 34 points in two of his past three games, I love the under tonight on his points prop.Beal has been under 23.5 points in 10 of his past 12 contests, with the two aforementioned red-hot nights being the only exceptions. He's scoring 22.5 points per game for the year.
The Golden State Warriors -- Beal's Monday opponent -- are 11th in defensive rating over the last 15 games, and for the season, Golden State is surrendering the eighth-fewest three-point shots per game to shooting guards (8.4).
Going by our numbers, there's a nice gap between this line and what we project. Our algorithm has Beal netting 21.1 points, 2.4 shy of this line.
2 for Tue
Dame is up against the Washington Wizards. The Wiz aren't an easy matchup for threes, but with how many treys Lillard is shooting lately, I'm not sure how much that matters.
Lillard has taken 14 and 13 three-pointers the past two games. He's shot at least nine threes in 16 of his past 18 games. He's letting it fly.
We need Dame to hit five threes for this to cash, and that's a big ask of anyone. But we have him projected to make 4.8 triples on 12.4 attempts. That projection is obviously just shy of five, but with a plus-money price on the over, I think it's worth a roll of the dice.
Prior to the last game, Allen -- who is playing the Boston Celtics on Tuesday -- had snagged at least three boards in three consecutive outings. Allen has gone over 2.5 rebounds in 9 of his past 14 games. He's averaging 3.4 rebounds per night for the season, and he pulled down three rebounds the last time he faced Boston, which was their only meeting this campaign.
It doesn't hurt that the Celtics are expected to be without Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, two guys who have combined for 15.6 rebounds per game and are second and third on the team in boards.
Our model projects Allen to total 3.4 rebounds. While the -164 juice isn't fun, this is a s
Damian Lillard Over 4.5 Made Threes (+102)
Damian Lillard has made 14 three-pointers over the past two games. He's been amazing, and he can keep it going tonight.Dame is up against the Washington Wizards. The Wiz aren't an easy matchup for threes, but with how many treys Lillard is shooting lately, I'm not sure how much that matters.
Lillard has taken 14 and 13 three-pointers the past two games. He's shot at least nine threes in 16 of his past 18 games. He's letting it fly.
We need Dame to hit five threes for this to cash, and that's a big ask of anyone. But we have him projected to make 4.8 triples on 12.4 attempts. That projection is obviously just shy of five, but with a plus-money price on the over, I think it's worth a roll of the dice.
Grayson Allen Over 2.5 Rebounds (-164)
Grayson Allen is coming off a zero-rebound effort in 28 minutes in his past game, but there are reasons to back the over at this line of 2.5 boards.Prior to the last game, Allen -- who is playing the Boston Celtics on Tuesday -- had snagged at least three boards in three consecutive outings. Allen has gone over 2.5 rebounds in 9 of his past 14 games. He's averaging 3.4 rebounds per night for the season, and he pulled down three rebounds the last time he faced Boston, which was their only meeting this campaign.
It doesn't hurt that the Celtics are expected to be without Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, two guys who have combined for 15.6 rebounds per game and are second and third on the team in boards.
Our model projects Allen to total 3.4 rebounds. While the -164 juice isn't fun, this is a s
2 for Thur
Nikola Vucevic has dished out at least five assists only once in his past seven games. He's got four total assists over the past two outings and is averaging 3.4 dimes per night for the campaign.
Being sans DeMar DeRozan -- who is out -- puts a little more playmaking on Vucevic, but even without DDR on the court, Vucevic is recording just 3.8 assists per 36 minutes, according to CourtQ. He finished with three assists in 36.5 minutes last night when DeRozan sat out.
Our projects have Vucevic totaling 3.8 assists tonight.
Over the past 15 games, Minnesota has given up a three-point attempt rate of 33.9%, the third-lowest in the NBA in that span.
Beal played the T-Wolves once already this season and went 1 for 4 from beyond the arc in that game. He's typically not a high-volume shooter from three, and that's especially true when he's sharing the court with Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis, which will be the case today. In that split, he averages 1.9 made threes on 5.2 three-point attempts per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ.
With those three all suiting up two nights ago, Beal went 1 for 5 from deep.
Our model projects him to make 1.6 of 4.9 threes on Thursday. With a +102 price on the over, this is a good bet to zero in on.
Nikola Vucevic Under 4.5 Assists (-150)
I think the -150 juice is worth swallowing on this one.Nikola Vucevic has dished out at least five assists only once in his past seven games. He's got four total assists over the past two outings and is averaging 3.4 dimes per night for the campaign.
Being sans DeMar DeRozan -- who is out -- puts a little more playmaking on Vucevic, but even without DDR on the court, Vucevic is recording just 3.8 assists per 36 minutes, according to CourtQ. He finished with three assists in 36.5 minutes last night when DeRozan sat out.
Our projects have Vucevic totaling 3.8 assists tonight.
Bradley Beal Under 1.5 Made Threes (+102)
Bradley Beal is up against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and it should be a tough spot for him to get going from three.Over the past 15 games, Minnesota has given up a three-point attempt rate of 33.9%, the third-lowest in the NBA in that span.
Beal played the T-Wolves once already this season and went 1 for 4 from beyond the arc in that game. He's typically not a high-volume shooter from three, and that's especially true when he's sharing the court with Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis, which will be the case today. In that split, he averages 1.9 made threes on 5.2 three-point attempts per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ.
With those three all suiting up two nights ago, Beal went 1 for 5 from deep.
Our model projects him to make 1.6 of 4.9 threes on Thursday. With a +102 price on the over, this is a good bet to zero in on.
