NBA Prop Bets===Master Thread

[MAGAking1]

3 for Friday

Spencer Dinwiddie Over 3.5 Rebounds (-106)​

It's hard to find situations we can feel real confident about tonight. This is one I feel pretty good about.


The Brooklyn Nets are one of the few teams on this slate that have something to play for as they are still fighting with the Miami Heat for the 6 seed. The Nets have a super soft matchup tonight with the Orlando Magic. Orlando stinks at full strength, and they're sitting pretty much everyone today.

Spencer Dinwiddie has pulled down either three or four boards in each of his last six games, so this line being 3.5 makes a ton of sense. However, I think the pricing is a little off, creating some value.

Dinwiddie has snagged at least four rebounds in six of his previous nine games, and with Brooklyn needing a win, minutes shouldn't be an issue.

Our model has him projected for 4.3 rebounds tonight. The over is the side I'll be on.

Brandon Ingram Over 5.5 Rebounds (-120)​

The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot on the line tonight in their game against the New York Knicks as the Pels still have a shot at the 6 seed.

Brandon Ingram has been a monster of late, doing it all for the Pelicans, including rebounding. Ingram has totaled six-plus boards in five of his past six outings. He's finished with seven-plus rebounds in half of his last eight games.

The Pels are hosting a Knicks squad that will be without Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson and Jalen Brunson. The absences of Randle and Robinson ding the Knicks on the glass.

We project Ingram to get 6.2 rebounds.

Bennedict Mathurin Over 18.5 Points (-118)​

Our model really likes this one.

Bennedict Mathurin should see an expanded role tonight for the Indiana Pacers, a team that has already ruled out Tyrese Haliburton and has all of Myles Turner, T.J. McConnell and Jalen Smith listed as questionable.

With Haliburton off the court this season, Mathurin owns a 27.2% usage rate and pours in 24.2 points per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ.

He could torch the Detroit Pistons. Detroit has the third-worst defensive rating over the last 10 games and is allowing 26.3 points per night to two-guards across the last 15 games.

We have Mathurin netting 21.8 points tonight -- well over this line.

 

[MAGAking1]

Lets try these

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Tue

De'Andre Hunter Under 14.5 Points (-108)​

De'Andre Hunter ended the regular season by scoring 14, 14 and 7 points over his final three games, and he put up only 13.9 points per night after the All-Star break. He logged a 19.7% usage rate this season, the second-lowest of his four-year career.

Hunter is up against the Miami Heat tonight. While the Heat have struggled versus small forwards this year, Miami finished the regular season ranked ninth in defensive rating, and the Heat (29th in pace) are a huge pace-down matchup for the Atlanta Hawks (6th).

Our model has Hunter netting 13.3 points in this one.

Bam Adebayo Under 9.5 Rebounds (-128)​

The Hawks have done a nice job keeping opposing bigs off the glass, and that puts me on the under for Bam Adebayo's rebounding prop.

Over the past 15 games, Atlanta has limited the center position to the seventh-fewest rebounds per game (14.2), and they're sixth in rebound rate during that time.

Adebayo snagged 9.2 rebounds per game for the season, and that fell to just 7.1 per game after the break. He played the Hawks four times this campaign and totaled 9.5 rebounds per game over the four meetings. In last year's postseason, he averaged fewer rebounds per game (8.0) than he did in the regular season (10.1).

D'Angelo Russell Under 2.5 Made Threes (+104)​

The Minnesota Timberwolves ended the year doing an excellent job of preventing three-point tries, leading me to this under on D'Angelo Russell's made threes prop.

Over the final 15 games, Minnesota allowed a 31.7% three-point attempt rate -- a league-low mark by 2.6 percentage points. The addition of Mike Conley probably had something to do with it, and Conley's defense helped Minnesota keep opposing point guards to just 2.1 made threes per game over the last 15, the second-fewest in that span.

Our projections have Russell going 2.7 for 7.3 today from beyond the arc. With a +104 price on the under and a -130 clip on the over, the under is the side I want to be on.

 

[MAGAking1]

shooters shoot

 

[MAGAking1]

3 for Fri

Josh Giddey Under 1.5 Made Threes (-113)​

This line has a -113 price on both sides, but there are a lot of reasons to favor the under on Josh Giddey's made threes prop.


The Minnesota Timberwolves have been excellent at preventing three-point tries down the stretch. Over the last 15 games of the regular season, no team gave up fewer three-point attempts than Minnesota, who held the opposition to a 31.7% three-point attempt rate in that time.

That three-point D was especially tight on guards as Minnesota permitted just 2.6 made threes per game to the shooting guard position over the regular season's last 30 games.

On top of all that, Giddey isn't a high-volume three-point shooter. For the year, he averaged only 1.0 made threes per night on 3.1 attempts. He is a career 29.5% shooter from deep through two seasons.

Our model has Giddey going 1.3 of 4.3 from beyond the arc tonight.

I also don't mind the under on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's made threes prop, which is set at 0.5 with a +172 price on the under. He went without a made three in half of his last six games.

Jimmy Butler Over 40.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-113)​

I think we see Jimmy Butler try to take over from the jump tonight.

Butler was plagued by poor shooting last time out as he went 6 of 19 from the field. He also pulled down only four rebounds, 1.9 below his season-long average. It was an off-game, and I don't think that happens again in a win-or-go-home spot.

The positive from that game was that Butler played 38 minutes, his most since March 11th. That's what Butler does in the postseason. A year ago, he averaged 33.9 minutes per game in the regular season and averaged 37.0 minutes in the playoffs. He will likely push for 40-some minutes today, and that's obviously a good thing for this bet.

Something else Butler usually does in the playoffs is ramp up his usage. He recorded a 26.5% usage rate last regular season and then generated a 29.1% usage rate in the playoffs.

Admittedly, our model doesn't back me on this one. But I like Butler to carry the load for Miami, and I think this prop is a good way to take advantage of that.

Jaylin Williams Over 5.5 Rebounds (-128)​

I'm going to wait to see if Rudy Gobert plays before placing this bet. As long as Gobert suits up, I like this one as Jaylin Williams will be needed to combat Gobert on the interior, which should result in good minutes for the Oklahoma City Thunder center.

Williams has snagged at least six rebounds in five of his last seven games. He averaged 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes for the year. The concern with Williams is whether or not he'll see enough minutes to get to this over, but that's not as much of a worry if Gobert suits up.

Despite the size they possess, the Minnesota Timberwolves surrendered 14.9 rebounds per game to centers over the last 30 contests, a mark slightly above the league average.

We have Williams pegged for 6.6 rebounds tonight.

 

[MAGAking1]

Win or Go Home (to get more money and reload) parlay

 

[indiana]

M/king 1..........good luck with all your Prop. action buddy..........indy

 

[MAGAking1]

Den/Minn series prop ideas

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves series props​

Series exact length: Six games (+255)​

With how bunched together the Western Conference standings were during the regular season, even the first-round 1 vs. 8 matchup poses to be a competitive series. It wasn’t pretty, but Minnesota managed to get through the play-in tournament to earn a spot in the actual playoff field. Meanwhile, Denver basically put the gear into neutral for the last month in preparation for the playoffs. And after having a week off, it may take the Nuggets a few games to get into a rhythm. I’d predict this series to land at exactly six games.

Series spread: Minnesota +2.5 games (-135)​

Chemistry issues in Minnesota were made apparent last week with Rudy Gobert punching Kyle Anderson on the sidelines. Barely sneaking into the playoffs after finishing the regular season barely over .500, not many are giving the Wolves much of a chance in this series.


However, there are a few factors that could play in their favor. While he may not be the most well-liked player on the court, Rudy Gobert is still a strong defensive presence and had the team ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating throughout the regular season. Along with this, Karl-Anthony Towns is finally healthy after missing over half the season with a calf injury. He stepped up with 28 points and 11 rebounds in the team’s blowout victory over the Thunder this past Friday. Throw in an All-Star in Anthony Edwards and this is a squad that can be a pest for the No. 1 team in the West. I’ll take them to cover the 2.5-game series spread.

Series correct score: Nuggets in 6 games (+370)​

If you put the previous two series predictions together, you arrive at my prediction of Denver taking out Minnesota 4-2 in this series.


As mentioned before, the Nuggets may come into this series a little bit rusty after the time off and we may see it tied 1-1 heading to Minnesota. However, this is where I’d expect the potential three-time NBA MVP in Nikola Jokic to start taking over. The Wolves may steal one more victory, but I’d expect the Nuggets to wrap this thing up back in Minneapolis for Game 6.

 

[MAGAking1]

Looking for lots of points to win this parlay

 

[MAGAking1]

a couple props for Wed

Jamal Murray Under 2.5 Made Threes (+118)​

Jamal Murray went 4 for 10 from deep in the Denver Nuggets' Game 1 win, but I think he stays under his made threes prop in Game 2.

Down the stretch, the Minnesota Timberwolves tightened up their perimeter defense and allowed the lowest three-point attempt rate (31.7%) over the final 15 games of the campaign. They really bottled up point guards from three, giving up just 2.3 made treys per night to the position during that span (the sixth-fewest).

Obviously, Murray found plenty of room to shoot in Game 1, getting off 10 three-point tries. That may have been a little flukey. Murray took only 6.4 threes per game in the regular season, and he's due to regress from downtown as he nailed an unsustainable 49.3% of his three-pointers across his final 10 games of the regular season.

Our model has Murray projected to go 2.6 of 6.6 today from beyond the arc. That's right at this line, but with the under priced at +118 -- compared to a -148 price on the over -- the under is the side I want to be on.

Dillon Brooks Under 14.5 Points (-114)​

Ja Morant is a question mark for Game 2, and his status obviously has a big impact on the usage of the Memphis Grizzlies. But it doesn't change things for Dillon Brooks too much.

Assuming Morant doesn't play -- which seems likely, per Adrian Wojnarowski -- and adding in the absences of Brandon Clarke, Steven Adams and Jake LaRavia, Brooks' usage rate in tonight's expected floor condition is 19.9%, according to CourtIQ. That's actually down 2.2 percentage points from his season-long usage rate.

Brooks went over this line in Game 1, netting 15 points. Game 1 was Brooks' fourth time facing the Los Angeles Lakers this season, and it was the first time he scored more than 13 points against them. He averaged only 9.7 points per game through the first three contests, and Morant missed one of those games.

We project Brooks to put up 12.6 points tonight.

 

[MAGAking1]

On a ragged downswing, these parlays are making me take a week off of drinking...lol

 

[MAGAking1]

a couple for Friday

Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple-Double (+210)​

Nikola Jokic had 27 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists in Game 2. I think he gets over the triple-double hump tonight in Game 3.

In the regular season, Jokic averaged 24.5 points, 11.8 boards and 9.8 dimes. He played the Minnesota Timberwolves three times in the regular season and triple-doubled in two of the games.

Jokic is -650 to double-double, and our model projects him to record 24.5 points and 11.8 rebounds. This will likely come down to assists. He's now played Minnesota five times, and he's posted an average of 10.6 assists in those five outings. The Wolves gave up the most assists per night to centers in the regular season.

We have Jokic forecasted for 8.8 assists in addition to the 24.5 points and 11.8 rebounds. I think he's got a better chance to get a triple-double than the 32.3% odds this +210 price implies.

Al Horford Over 2.5 Assists (-162)​

Al Horford has gone over 2.5 assists in 15 of his past 17 games, including 7 of his previous 8.

One of the two exceptions in that span came in Game 2 of this series versus the Atlanta Hawks, but Horford is averaging 4.0 potential assists per game in the series.

On top of that, Horford has played 35.0 minutes per night through two playoff games -- up from the 30.5 he averaged in the regular season. With those 30.5 minutes per game in the regular season, Horford averaged 3.0 dimes per contest.

Our model likes this one quite as bit as we project Horford for 3.6 assists. Even with the -162 juice, this bet is an appealing prop.

 

[MAGAking1]

 

[MAGAking1]

 

[MAGAking1]

2 for Monday

Jimmy Butler Under 0.5 Made Threes (+124)​

Jimmy Butler has nailed at least one trey in each of the past two games of this series, but there are reasons to back him to go without a three today.

Butler has shot an unsustainable 6 of 8 from three in the last two games, including a 4-for-4 effort in Game 3. He's a 32.3% three-point shooter for his career, so he's not going to keep shooting this well.

Butler isn't a high-volume three-point shooter, either. He has taken only nine total three-point tries over the three games. He put up just 1.6 three-point attempts per night in the regular season, his fewest since the first two years of his career.

The Milwaukee Bucks were excellent at preventing three-point shots this season, giving up a three-point attempt rate of 36.6%, tied for the fourth-lowest. Milwaukee surrendered the fourth-fewest made triples per game to small forwards (2.4).

We project Butler to go 0.5 of 1.8 today from three. With this under priced at +124, it's a great prop to zero in on.

Dillon Brooks Under 13.5 Points (-125)​

We cashed the under on Dillon Brooks' points prop last week, and I think it hits again tonight.

Brooks has scored 7 and 12 points in the past two games after netting 15 in Game 1. He's now played the Los Angeles Lakers six times this season, and he's scored 13 or fewer points in five of the six games.

On top of that, his minutes are dwindling as he's played just 22.6 and 19.2 minutes over the past two games. That happened to Brooks in last year's postseason, as well. He averaged 27.7 minutes in the regular season and got just 23.7 minutes per night in the playoffs.

Our model has Brooks scoring 11.7 points in tonight's Game 4.

 

[MAGAking1]

Beer money parlay for today

 

[MAGAking1]

2 props for Tuesday

Robert Williams Over 1.5 Blocks (+104)​

Robert Williams has swatted at least two shots in five of his past eight games, including in half of the four contests in the series versus the Atlanta Hawks.

Over the final 30 games of the regular season, Atlanta gave up the 10th-most blocks per night to centers (2.2), and Williams has notched a pair of blocks in each of the two games in this series in which he's seen at least 22 minutes.

We project him to play 23.8 minutes tonight, and while we have Williams pegged for 1.5 blocks, I'm more bullish on the over than our model is. I'm jumping at the chance to get it at plus-money.

Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple-Double (+210)​

We hit on a Nikola Jokic triple-double prop in Game 3 at this exact same price, and I'm going back to the well for Game 5.

As is almost always the case with Jokic triple-doubles, it'll likely come down to assists as we have Jokic forecasted to produce 24.8 points and 13.5 boards. He's an overwhelming -650 to double-double.

In terms of assists, he's averaging 8.2 per game in the series, clearing the double-digit threshold only once. Counting the regular season, Jokic has played the Minnesota Timberwolves seven times this year and has recorded a triple-double in three of the games.

Minnesota is a good matchup for assists for Jokic as they permitted the seventh-most assists per game to centers over the final 30 games of the regular season. For the season as a whole, they surrendered the most assists per game to the position.

On top of that, Jokic is averaging 2.1 more minutes per night so far in this year's playoffs compared to his regular-season minutes. With a chance to close out the series tonight and avoid going back to Minnesota, Jokic should be in for plenty of minutes in Game 5.

This +210 price implies odds of 32.3%. I like Jokic's chances better than that, and our model does, too, projecting him juuuust shy of a triple-double at 9.3 assists (in addition to the 24.8 points and 13.5 rebounds).

 

[MAGAking1]

a little above beer money parlay.....damn sure seems like everyone is around min 4 pts light

 

[MAGAking1]

a little above beer money parlay.....damn sure seems like everyone is around min 4 pts light

View attachment 65751

time for a bottle of Makers46

 

[MAGAking1]

Can I get on a heater?
These look at least 2 pts lite ea