2 for wed
Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 Steals (-140)
Bam Adebayo finished Game 4 with one steal. It was his first game with a steal in the series versus the
New York Knicks, and that's probably why this prop is at 0.5 steals with not-too-bad juice on the over.
But Bam not getting a steal in the first three games was likely just random variance, and the over looks like a great bet for Game 5.
In the last round, Adebayo recorded at least one steal in all five games against the
Milwaukee Bucks, including two steals in three of the outings. For the season, Bam averaged 1.2 steals per night, and he's averaged at least 1.1 steals per game in four consecutive campaigns. He played the Knicks four times this regular season and had at least one steal in every matchup.
Playing time is on our side, too. Adebayo has logged at least 37 minutes in each of the first four games of the series, and he should be out there a ton today in a potential closeout game for the
Miami Heat.
Our model projects Bam to have 1.2 steals tonight. This is a good prop to zero in on.
Draymond Green to Record a Triple-Double (+1800)
I'm swinging for the fence with this one.
Draymond Green has struggled with foul trouble in the series versus the
Los Angeles Lakers, which has suppressed his statistical output, but with the
Golden State Warriors' season on the line tonight, I think Green delivers the goods and has a better shot to record a triple-double than this +1800 price implies.
For the series, Green is averaging 6.8 points, 6.8 boards and 6.8 assists -- yes, 6.8 of each. That's obviously not super close to a triple-double, but as I said, he's struggled with foul trouble. If we remove Green's ugly Game 3, where he played just 22 minutes, his series averages jump to 8.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.6 assists.
In Game 2, which felt like it was close to a must-win affair after the Dubs dropped Game 1 at home, Green totaled 11 points, 11 rebounds and 9 dimes -- just missing a triple-double. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble -- something he managed to do last time out en route to 8 points, 10 boards and 7 assists -- Green should be in for huge minutes tonight.
We project Green for 9.3 points, 8.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists. I'm a little more bullish on him than our model is while also acknowledging that a lot would need to go right for this bet to hit. Still, I think it's worth a roll of the dice at this +1800 number.