NBA Prop Bets===Master Thread

Search

Member
Joined
Apr 24, 2023
Messages
6,116
Tokens
i have been on Brogdon every game he has went over his points, went over his amount of 3 pointers made and has went over his pts/reb/assist he is a money maker
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
i have been on Brogdon every game he has went over his points, went over his amount of 3 pointers made and has went over his pts/reb/assist he is a money maker
Ill take a look at him next game for sure.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
lil parlay for tonight

nba parlay.png
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
one more

parlay 2.png
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
2 for wed

Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 Steals (-140)​

Bam Adebayo finished Game 4 with one steal. It was his first game with a steal in the series versus the New York Knicks, and that's probably why this prop is at 0.5 steals with not-too-bad juice on the over.

But Bam not getting a steal in the first three games was likely just random variance, and the over looks like a great bet for Game 5.

In the last round, Adebayo recorded at least one steal in all five games against the Milwaukee Bucks, including two steals in three of the outings. For the season, Bam averaged 1.2 steals per night, and he's averaged at least 1.1 steals per game in four consecutive campaigns. He played the Knicks four times this regular season and had at least one steal in every matchup.

Playing time is on our side, too. Adebayo has logged at least 37 minutes in each of the first four games of the series, and he should be out there a ton today in a potential closeout game for the Miami Heat.

Our model projects Bam to have 1.2 steals tonight. This is a good prop to zero in on.

Draymond Green to Record a Triple-Double (+1800)​

I'm swinging for the fence with this one.

Draymond Green has struggled with foul trouble in the series versus the Los Angeles Lakers, which has suppressed his statistical output, but with the Golden State Warriors' season on the line tonight, I think Green delivers the goods and has a better shot to record a triple-double than this +1800 price implies.

For the series, Green is averaging 6.8 points, 6.8 boards and 6.8 assists -- yes, 6.8 of each. That's obviously not super close to a triple-double, but as I said, he's struggled with foul trouble. If we remove Green's ugly Game 3, where he played just 22 minutes, his series averages jump to 8.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.6 assists.

In Game 2, which felt like it was close to a must-win affair after the Dubs dropped Game 1 at home, Green totaled 11 points, 11 rebounds and 9 dimes -- just missing a triple-double. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble -- something he managed to do last time out en route to 8 points, 10 boards and 7 assists -- Green should be in for huge minutes tonight.

We project Green for 9.3 points, 8.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists. I'm a little more bullish on him than our model is while also acknowledging that a lot would need to go right for this bet to hit. Still, I think it's worth a roll of the dice at this +1800 number.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
Pretty good promo with the boosted payouts....went to the top end of a beer money bet, which is the max allowed

Hoping Denver plays a similar defense on Booker as last game, if they do pretty good odds Book stays under 31.5 AND Durant goes over....a little correlation

canvas.png
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens

Tyrese Maxey Under 19.5 Points (-125)​

Tyrese Maxey is coming off a stellar 30-point showing in the Philadelphia 76ers' big Game 5 road win. But that was his first scoring outburst since Game 1 of the series with the Boston Celtics, and I think Maxey reverts back to his modest-scoring ways tonight.

In Game 2 through Game 4, Maxey topped out at 14 points and averaged just 6.3 three-point tries per night. He was clearly behind Joel Embiid and James Harden in the 76ers' usage pecking order.

That changed in Game 5 as Maxey took a whopping 12 threes -- hitting 6 of them -- en route to his 30-point performance. He was a big beneficiary of Harden taking just eight shots. My money's on Harden putting up more shots tonight in Game 6 with Philly having a chance to close out the Celtics, which will likely lead to fewer looks for Maxey.

On top of that, Boston is a difficult matchup for two-guards as the Celtics held the position to the sixth-fewest points per game in the regular season (22.3).

We project Maxey to take only 5.6 threes tonight and to finish with 18.5 points. I'm riding with the under.

Devin Booker Under 32.5 Points (-125)​

Regression is coming at some point -- right?

I wrote up the under on Devin Booker's made threes prop for Game 4, and that didn't work out as Booker continued his insane shooting and nailed 4 of 7 from deep. But I liked the process for that one, and I'm going with this under today.

Booker is making an astounding 60.0% of his shots in the series against the Denver Nuggets, including 57.1% of his threes, and he's taking a lot of tough mid-range shots, too, as he usually does.

For the playoffs, Booker is hitting 60.1% of his shots and 51.7% from three. The shot-making has been out of this world, and it's been amazing to watch.

But he has to slow down at some point. This is a guy who shot 49.4% from the field in the regular season, sinking 35.1% of his shots from beyond the arc and making just 2.1 threes per night.

Booker's usage rate in this series is 29.4%, which is a hefty mark but is actually below his regular-season usage rate of 31.8%, so if his scorching-hot shooting finally cools today, this under should cash.

What we're witnessing from Booker this postseason has been special, and maybe I'm a fool for betting (twice) against someone who is clearly in a zone few people have experienced. But I'm banking on regression getting him, and our model is also on the under's side, pegging Booker to score 30.7 points in Game 5.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
2 Friday props

Kevin Love Over 1.5 Made Threes (-136)​

Outside of Duncan Robinson and Max Strus, the Miami Heat shot 4 of 23 from three in their Game 5 loss to the New York Knicks. Just two other Heat players even made a three-ball, and Strus was the only starter to hit a three-pointer.

The rest of the Heat will need to shoot better than that tonight, and that's where Kevin Love comes in.

Love has canned multiple triples in three of the five games of this series, and he's taken at least five threes in four of the five outings. Love has made at least two threes in 8 of his 10 postseason games this year.

In the regular season, New York permitted the sixth-most made treys per night to power forwards.

We have Love hitting 2.0 of 5.5 from beyond the arc in tonight's Game 6. I'm rolling with the over.

Klay Thompson Under 21.5 Points (-108)​

Betting against Klay Thompson in a Game 6? I'm gonna risk it.

Thompson went for 25 and 30 points in the first two games, taking 25 and 18 shots in those two. But as the Golden State Warriors have run more Stephen Curry pick and rolls as the series has progressed, it's suppressed Klay's shot volume.

In the last three games, Thompson has attempted 14, 11 and 12 shots while topping out at 15 points. He's a meager 3 for 13 from two in that time as Golden State running a slightly more structured attack instead of their usual free-flowing offense has taken away some of Klay's game.

I'm not sure why the Warriors would deviate from the Curry pick and roll; it's been their best means of creating good looks in this series. It's just made it so Klay is having to feed on scraps.

While acknowledging that Klay -- one of the NBA's all-time great shooters -- can get hot and go nuts in any game, I'm backing this under. Our model is a fan, too, pegging Thompson for just 19.4 points.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
3 Mia props to consider ....I like under on Butler pts but last 2 times I bet it he crushed me, so laying off this time

Jimmy Butler over 27.5 points (-125)​


Playoff Butler is a real thing as the Heat star has willed the East’s No. 8 seed into the Conference Finals. Throughout this postseason, Butler is the third-highest leading scorer (31.1 PPG) and I have no reason to doubt that trend continues Wednesday night.


Butler last eclipsed this total back in Game 3 versus the New York Knicks, but he’ll need to shoulder the scoring lead if Miami hopes to steal Game 1.


Bam Adebayo over 9.5 rebounds (+115)​


Adebayo is averaging 9.2 rebounds per game this postseason and boasted two games against the Knicks with double-digit rebounds (12 and 13 in Games 3 and 4). Much like Butler needing to shoulder the scoring load, Adebayo needs to be tenacious on the glass if Miami hopes to steal the lone game they need on the road to tilt home-court advantage their way.


Max Strus over 2.5 threes made (-115)​


With Tyler Herro sidelined and Butler needing some support from the larger roster, it’s been Strus that’s stepped into the role of marksman. Through the 2023 playoffs Strus is averaging 2.2 three-pointers made per game, and he’s averaging 5.9 attempts per game from beyond the arc.


Prior to his 1-for-6 three-point performance in Game 6, Strus strung together four straight games of more than two made threes per game, which is all the more reason to expect a bounce-back game Wednesday night.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
A couple Boston props

Robert Williams Over 1.5 Blocks (+134)​

Robert Williams was a key factor in the Boston Celtics turning around their series versus the Philadelphia 76ers last round, and he was moved into the starting lineup for the final two games, seeing at least 28 minutes in each. This recommendation comes with the assumption Williams remains in the starting five tonight for Game 1 against the Miami Heat.

Despite being in a bench role for a majority of the playoffs this season, Williams has recorded multiple blocks in 6 of his last 12 games.

His defense should be needed today against Bam Adebayo. Williams played Miami once this regular season and swatted two shots in the game. In last year's playoffs, Williams suited up four times against the Heat and tallied at least two blocks in three of the games.

Our model projects Williams for 1.7 blocks in Wednesday's Game 1. With a +134 price on the over and a -172 price on the under, the over is the side I want to be on.

Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 Made Threes (-102)​

We could see gobs of three-point attempts from the Celtics in this series.

In the regular season, Boston had the NBA's second-highest three-point attempt rate (48.0%), and they've been letting it fly in the postseason, too, posting the second-highest three-point attempt rate (44.8%) among playoff squads.

Miami, meanwhile, gives up a lot of shots from beyond the arc. The Heat permitted the third-highest three-point attempt rate (43.8%) in the regular season, and they have allowed the third-highest three-point attempt rate (44.4%) in the playoffs among postseason teams.

That leads me to the over on Jaylen Brown's three-point prop

Brown attempted a career-high 7.3 threes per night in the regular season. In last year's playoffs series against the Heat, Brown nailed three-plus triples in four of the seven games.

We project Brown to go 2.7 of 7.8 from three. The over is close to plus-money, and it's worth a dice roll.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
beer parlay for today


nba parlay.png
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
doh , Williams stopped at 7 rebounds to kill this one




For tonight

D'Angelo Russell Under 20.5 Points, Rebonds and Assists (-128)​

The Los Angeles Lakers found something in the second half of Game 1 when they put Rui Hachimura on Nikola Jokic and moved Anthony Davis into a free-safety role. They'll surely do some of that tonight -- LA may even start off that way and move Rui into the first five -- and a possible knock-on effect could be less run for D'Angelo Russell.

I think Russell is more likely to be negatively impacted than Dennis Schroder due to Schroder's defensive ability, which will be needed against Jamal Murray. We saw this play out in Game 1 as Russell (26 minutes) played fewer minutes than both Hachimura (28) and Schroder (32). In all, D-Lo had a brutal game, totaling just eight points, three boards and no assists.

I like the under on Russell's points, rebounds and assists prop even if he ends up starting again, so I'm firing away now. But I also think there's a good chance D-Lo comes off the bench, and this line could drop a bit if news breaks that Russell is moving out of the starting lineup.

Bruce Brown Jr. Over 0.5 Made Threes (-120)​

If LA keeps putting Rui on Jokic, it might end up playing Aaron Gordon off the floor, which could make Bruce Brown Jr. a huge piece in this series.

With Hachimura on Jokic, AD can play his free-safety role because he doesn't have to respect Gordon's perimeter game. Denver can find ways to keep Gordon on the court -- likely using him as a free screener -- but if that's not working, they may have to bench Gordon in favor of Brown or Jeff Green.

Even in his normal role, Brown has been a key player for Denver in these playoffs, logging at least 23 minutes in all but one game. He's made a triple in three straight games, and most encouraging of all, he's taken nine total threes in that span.

I think Brown sees a lot of run tonight, and I like him to sink at least one three-ball.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
A couple beer money parlays for Thur

parlay.png
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
some Celtic props to consider

With a Celtics team expected to play with more aggression, a handful of big performances could be on display. With that in mind, let’s run through some of the best player props to consider for Boston with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.


Jayson Tatum over 29.5 points (-115)​


Tatum led all Boston scorers with 30 points in Game 1 but shot a relatively quiet 9-17 from the floor. In reality, his perfect night from the charity stripe (11-11) contributed greatly to his scoring total. That should change in Game 2, where I expect Tatum to be more aggressive in an effort to tie the series.


He’s averaging 28.3 points per game through these playoffs and should be motivated to match the level of play on display from Jimmy Butler, who finished with a game-high 35 points in Game 1. Take the over for Tatum.


Robert Williams over 7.5 rebounds (+100)​


Williams finished with seven boards in Wednesday's Game 1 loss, though he’s flashed his ability to absolutely dominate the glass earlier in the postseason. Back in Game 4 of the first round against the Atlanta Hawks, the Texas A&M product totaled 15 rebounds in a win, and Boston will likely need that same level of effort in order to tie the series before it shifts to Miami.


Jaylen Brown over 2.5 3-pointers (+105)​


Brown went 1-6 from downtown in the Celtics’ Game 1 loss, but I highly doubt he’ll put up back-to-back porous performances from deep. He’s averaging 2.4 made three-pointers throughout this postseason and when the Celtics bounced back to beat the Philadelphia 76ers in a similar Game 2 scenario in the previous series, it was Brown that finished with a game-high 25 points for Boston. He went 3-6 from deep in that game, and I think he goes over this line Friday.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
tonight's brewski parlay

parlay.png
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
2 for Tue

Gabe Vincent Under 12.5 Points (-125)​

Gabe Vincent has been outstanding in the postseason, and he's coming off one of the best nights of his career in a 29-point outburst in Game 3.

But I like the under on his points prop today.

Vincent is shooting 38.0% from three in the playoffs and taking 10.9 shots per game via a 19.0% usage rate. Those are all up from what he did during the regular season. In the regular season, Vincent sunk 33.4% of his shots from deep and took 8.3 shots per night on a 17.5% usage rate.

He's been particularly lights out versus the Boston Celtics, making 55.6% of his threes en route to 17.7 points per night. That just can't last.

Even with the silly-good shooting numbers in this series and the uptick in production in the postseason as a whole, Vincent is netting just 12.9 points per game. He's definitely getting huge minutes -- at least 35 in all three games against Boston -- but he likely needs to keep up his red-hot shooting to get to 13-plus points. I'm betting against that happening, and our model is, too, projecting Vincent for 11.6 points.

Malcolm Brogdon Over 1.5 Made Threes (-160)​

Malcolm Brogdon has been cold the last two games (1 for 8 from three), but I'm jumping at the chance to take the over with his three-point prop at 1.5.

During this season's playoffs, Brogdon is averaging 2.1 made threes per night on 5.1 attempts from beyond the arc. That's mostly backed up by his regular-season averages of 2.0 makes on 4.4 three-point shots per game, and his postseason three-point percentage of 40.7% is actually down a bit from his 44.4% clip from the regular season.

In the regular season, the Miami Heat allowed the second-highest three-point attempt rate (43.0%). That's one of the few things from Miami's regular season that has carried over into the postseason as the Heat are permitting the third-highest three-point attempt rate in the playoffs (43.7%). Boston, on the other hand, took the second-most threes per night in the regular season (42.6).

Before the past two games, Brogdon had hit multiple threes in seven of his last eight outings. I think he gets back on track in a must-win Game 4.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
nba par.png
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
They both SHOULD be able to beat these numbers in a competitive game


nba parlay.png
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
A couple props for game 6

Marcus Smart Over 5.5 Assists (-130)​

Marcus Smart averaged 6.3 assists per night in the regular season, and he's averaging 6.0 dimes per contest through five games in the series against the Miami Heat. Smart has gone for at least six assists in three of the five games in the series, including two outings of eight-plus assists.

After some games with pedestrian -- by their standard -- three-point attempt totals, the Boston Celtics have gotten back to their high-volume ways from deep, averaging 40.3 three-point tries over the past four games. That's good for Smart's assist potential, and he also benefits from having Derrick White back in the starting five as Smart posts 7.33 assists per 36 minutes when sharing the court with White, per RotoGrinders' CourtIQ.

With Boston in a must-win spot, minutes shouldn't be an issue for Smart, and I like his chances of amassing at least six assists in Saturday's Game 6.

Bam Adebayo to Record 1+ Steals (-160)​

Bam Adebayo averaged 1.2 steals per game in the regular season, and it was his fourth straight campaign averaging at least 1.1 steals per night.

He's at 1.1 steals per game in these playoffs, and Bam has swiped at least one steal in seven of his last eight games, including four steals over the last three games.

The Celtics are a decent matchup for steals, too, as they've been prone to some high-turnover games in the playoffs. Over their last seven games, Boston is averaging 12.6 turnovers per night and has committed at least 15 turnovers in four of the games. They're averaging 14.0 turnovers per night over their past three road games.

As was the case with Smart, minutes are unlikely to be an issue. Miami will do all it can to avoid going back to Boston.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
19,323
Tokens
Lets try this one


parlay nba.png
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,109,029
Messages
13,456,754
Members
99,448
Latest member
c54giving
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com