NBA Prop Bets===Master Thread

[MAGAking1]

a couple of props for Wed

Jimmy Butler Under 29.5 Points (-111)​

Imagine betting against Jimmy Butler right now. Couldn't be me.

Despite Butler's incredible 56-point explosion in Game 4, I'm taking the under on his points prop for Game 5. I'm recommending this knowing full well it could blow up in my face, but I think there are good reasons to back this under.

Butler is shooting 62.8% from the field in the playoffs and is making 2.3 threes per game at a 52.9% clip from deep. None of those things can last. For the year, Butler hit 53.9% of his field goals and nailed only 0.6 threes per game. While Butler's 34.3% usage rate this postseason is working against us, he is bound to regress shooting-wise.

There's also plenty of blowout risk today.

The Milwaukee Bucks are 12.0-point favorites, and the line is moving Milwaukee's way. With their season on the brink, the Bucks have every reason to keep their foot on the gas, and if the Miami Heat get behind big, it would make sense for them to give Butler -- who has played 40-plus minutes twice in this series, including 43 minutes in Game 4 -- a seat on the bench in an effort to rest him for an all-important Game 6 in Miami. That scenario played out in Game 2, and Butler logged only 28 minutes.

Our model pegs Butler to score 27.3 points tonight. I understand the hesitation in going against Jimmy Buckets with Miami short-handed, but the under is the side I'll be on.

Evan Mobley Over 1.5 Blocks (+106)​

I love the chance to get this at plus-money.

Evan Mobley has recorded at least a pair of blocks in two of the past three games in this series versus the New York Knicks.

Overall this season, counting the playoffs, Mobley has played the Knicks eight times, and he's swatted multiple shots in five of the eight games, including five of the last seven. He's averaging 1.9 blocks per game versus the Knicks this season.

Something else working in our favor is that Mobley is playing 2.9 more minutes per game in the postseason (37.3) than he did in the regular season (34.4)

We have Mobley projected for 1.8 blocks tonight. I'm a little more bullish on this over than our model is, but even at that projection, the over is worth a roll of the dice at this +106 price.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 props for the Bos/Atl game

 

[MAGAking1]

a couple more ideas

Robert Williams Over 1.5 Blocks (+112)​

I wrote up this bet for Game 5, and Robert Williams recorded a whopping zero blocks despite logging 27 minutes. Yay. But I'm going back to the well again today because I think the process is sound.

The matchup is a big part of it. The Atlanta Hawks usually play with at least one big -- either Clint Capela or Onyeka Okongwu -- which results in good minutes for opposing centers. As such, across the last 30 games of the regular season, the Hawks gave up 2.2 blocks per game to centers, the 10th-most.

Despite the zero-swat game last time out, Williams has blocked at least a pair of shots in two of the last four games of the series and in 6 of his past 11 games overall.

I think the over is worth a roll of the dice at this plus-money price.

Jayson Tatum to Be the Top Point Scorer (+110)​

Jayson Tatum had an off game last time out, scoring just 19 points, but he had poured in at least 25 in each of the four games before that one, including 29, 29 and 31 from Game 2 to Game 4.

The Hawks struggled to defend power forwards all year, surrendering the third-most points per night to the position.

Tatum has played Atlanta seven times this season, and he's gone for 29-plus points in four of the seven games. With a chance to avoid a Game 7, Tatum should be aggressive from the jump today.

This likely comes down to one of Tatum, Trae Young (+250) or Jaylen Brown (+310). Our model projects Tatum to score 30.4 points tonight -- 3.5 more than anyone else. We have Young at 26.9 points and Brown at 24.6. The +110 price looks like a number we can take advantage of.

 

[MAGAking1]

beer parlay for tonite

 

[MAGAking1]

2 fri props

Jordan Poole Over 1.5 Made Threes (-152)​

Despite being moved into the starting five for the past three games, Jordan Poole hasn't gotten going from three in this series, hitting just 22.2% of his three-pointers through five games.

Poole -- a 33.9% three-point shooter in his career -- won't keep shooting this poorly.

The attempts have been there as Poole has taken at least six triples in the three games in which he's started, and the minutes have been there, too -- an average of 25.8 in those starts.

The Sacramento Kings gave up the 10th-most three-point shots per night to shooting guards in the regular season.

We project Poole to go 2.1 of 6.1 from three. As long as Poole is in the starting lineup again, this is a prop I'll be on.

Desmond Bane Under 24.5 Points (-113)​

Desmond Bane has ripped off two straight outstanding scoring performances, netting 36 points in Game 4 and 33 points in Game 5. But I think there are good reasons to back the under on his points prop today.

One of the biggest is that Bane isn't likely to sustain his incredibly high shot volume.

Over those past two games, he's averaged 25.0 shots per night, including 10.5 three-point tries. In the regular season, Bane averaged 16.2 shots per night, 7.0 of which came from beyond the arc. For the first three games of the series, one of which Ja Morant missed, Bane was right near those averages, putting up 16.7 shots and 7.7 threes. We project him to be in that range tonight --17.8 attempts and 7.9 threes.

On top of that, the Los Angeles Lakers ended the year playing good D on two-guards, holding the position to the eighth-fewest points per game over the final 30 contests.

All in all, our model has Bane scoring 22.2 points today.

 

[MAGAking1]

tonights parlay

 

[indiana]

M/king 1....BOL tonight buddy........
thank you for your time and thought's this past NBA season........
very much appreciated......indy

 

[MAGAking1]

thinking Aaron and Durant go off tonight

 

[MAGAking1]

 

[MAGAking1]

Monday ideas

Al Horford Over 2.5 Assists (-174)​

Al Horford has notched at least three assists in 11 of his last 12 games, and he recorded three-plus assists in each of the final five games in the first round versus the Atlanta Hawks.

For the regular season, Horford averaged 3.0 assists per night, and he's playing 2.2 more minutes per game so far in the postseason compared to the regular season.

The Philadelphia 76ers are expected to be without Joel Embiid for tonight's Game 1. That's obviously a big blow for Philly on both ends of the floor, and it brings blowout risk into the equation as Boston is a 10.0-point favorite.

That's my biggest worry with this bet, and if you want to stay away from the -178 juice, I get it.

But Philly gave up the 11th-most assists per game to centers (4.6) over the final 15 contests of the regular season, and we project Horford to tally 3.4 assists today.

Devin Booker Under 30.5 Points (-118)​

Devin Booker was special in the first round, pouring in 37.2 points per game in the series against the Los Angeles Clippers. While Booker is obviously capable of lighting up any team on any night, there are reasons to expect him to slow down in the points department, and we saw them play out in a 26-point night in Game 1 against the Denver Nuggets.

The Clips, when healthy, are a difficult matchup for guards and wings, but the Clippers weren't healthy. The Nuggets are healthy, and they were tough on two-guards this campaign. Over the final 30 games of the year, Denver kept the position to 22.7 points per game, the seventh-fewest.

Booker also shot the ball a ton in the first round and hit more threes than usual, averaging 23.6 shots per game on a 30.0% usage rate while making an unsustainable 46.7% of his threes. Book averaged 20.1 shots per game in the regular season and shot 35.1% from deep.

Kevin Durant took a back seat against the Clippers, registering a mere 24.1% usage rate -- 6.6 percentage points below his full-season clip. In Game 1 versus Denver, KD had a 34.4% usage rate while Booker held a 28.4% usage rate.

I expect more of the same today in Game 2, and our model does, too, as we forecast Booker to score 28.3 points.

 

[MAGAking1]

Im gonna do a few beer money parlays on tonight, this is first

 

[MAGAking1]

Put a little more than beer money on this....special "almost free square" deal and $20 max bet allowed.

I expect Bam's projection to increase to 40 if/when Butler gets confirmed out.

 

[MAGAking1]

Put a little more than beer money on this....special "almost free square" deal and $20 max bet allowed.

I expect Bam's projection to increase to 40 if/when Butler gets confirmed out.

View attachment 66300

It went to 39.....

 

[MAGAking1]

It went to 39.....

Unreal.....total fantasy pts 35.6 , lose by .35 pts ......

 

[MAGAking1]

2 for Wed

Tyrese Maxey Under 21.5 Points (-108)​

Joel Embiid is expected to play tonight, and that's a blow for Tyrese Maxey's scoring potential.

When sharing the court with Embiid and James Harden this season, Maxey amassed just a 17.4% usage rate and 15.7 points per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ.

Maxey averaged 21.8 points per game in the first round versus the Brooklyn Nets (with Embiid and Harden playing all four games), but it took a 33-point night in Game 2 and 50.0% shooting from three for the series for him to get to that points-per-game average. Maxey is a really good shooter -- 41.4% from three for his career -- but 50.0% shooting from deep is unsustainable even for him.

On top of that, this is a rough matchup for Maxey. The Boston Celtics held two-guards to the fifth-fewest points per game over the final 30 contests of the regular season.

Our model has Maxey netting just 18.1 points in Game 2. The under is the side to be on.

Al Horford Over 5.5 Rebounds (-132)​

Our projections really like this one, too.

Al Horford has pulled down at least six boards in seven of his last nine games, including in each of his past four outings.

He's played the Philadelphia 76ers four times this season and is averaging 5.7 rebounds per night over the four matchups. For the regular season as a whole, Horford snagged 6.2 rebounds per game.

While Embiid playing will make rebounding more difficult, it also ensures that Horford's defense will be needed, which should lead to big minutes.

We project Horford for 7.4 rebounds tonight.

 

[MAGAking1]

okay this one just HAS to hit right?

 

[MAGAking1]

A couple props for LA/GSW

Stephen Curry Over 5.5 Rebounds (-113)​

Someone besides Kevon Looney has to get some rebounds for the Golden State Warriors, and I think Stephen Curry will continue to be that someone.

Curry has eight and six rebounds over his last two games, and he's done that despite Looney vacuuming up an astounding 44 total boards over the two contests. Looney can't keep up that kind of rebounding pace over the long haul, which should result in more rebounding chances for other Warriors.

The matchup helps, too. Over the final 30 games of the regular season, the Los Angeles Lakers gave up the second-most boards per night to point guards (7.1). Curry has played LA three times this season, going for at least six rebounds in two of the three games.

We project Curry for 6.5 rebounds in tonight's Game 2.

Andrew Wiggins Over 1.5 Made Threes (-130)​

I targeted this over at -150 juice in Game 1, and it didn't hit as Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole did the heavy lifting from three for the Dubs, drilling six treys apiece.

But I liked the process for that bet and am going back to the well for Game 2.

Andrew Wiggins got up five three-point attempts in Game 1, which is a positive, and he averaged 6.1 three-point tries per night in the regular season.

The Lakers surrendered the ninth-most made threes per game to small forwards in the regular season, and Wiggins hit multiple threes -- six in all -- over his two regular-season meetings with LA.

We project Wiggins to go 2.5 of 6.4 today from three. I love this at -130.

 

[MAGAking1]

2 for Friday

Malcolm Brogdon Under 14.5 Points (-113)​

While Malcolm Brogdon has been excellent through two games, scoring 23 and 20 points off the bench, I like the under on his points prop for Game 3.

Brogdon is a super efficient player, so he might be able to sustain his 51.6% shooting from Games 1 and 2. What he'll have a lot more trouble maintaining is his 27.6% usage rate from those two outings. That 27.6% usage rate is second on the Boston Celtics, and it's not that far from Jayson Tatum's team-leading 29.9% mark.

Brogdon's usage rate was 22.4% in the first round, and it was 22.3% in the regular season -- a distant third on the team behind Tatum (31.9%) and Jaylen Brown (30.7%). Brogdon and Brown -- the latter of whom has a 23.7% usage rate through two games against the Philadelphia 76ers -- have essentially seen their usage flip so far in this series, and that's probably not going to last.

On top of that, Philly was stingy versus point guards in the regular season, giving up second-fewest points per game to the position.

We project Brogdon for 14.2 points tonight, and the under is the side I'll be on.

Deandre Ayton to Record a Double-Double (+110)​

Deandre Ayton has gone without a double-double in each of the first two games of this series, but there are reasons to back him to do it in Game 3.

In the regular season, Ayton averaged 18.0 points and 10.0 rebounds, and he's averaged a double-double in each of his five seasons in the NBA. Despite the past two contests, he's averaging a double-double in these playoffs, too, sitting at per-game clips of 15.4 points and 10.1 boards.

Ayton's points prop is at 16.5 points. He's -950 to score 10-plus points and -115 to pull down 10-plus rebounds. Ayton getting a double-double will almost surely come down to his work on the glass.

Across the last 30 games of the regular season, the Denver Nuggets were right around the league average for rebounds per night allowed to centers (15.4). In the regular season, Ayton played Denver three times and averaged 10.3 rebounds per night against them, going for double-digit boards in two of the three games.

We project Ayton for 11.0 boards and 16.0 points.

 

[MAGAking1]

 

[MAGAking1]

2 picks for mon

Mitchell Robinson Over 5.5 Points (-110)​

Mitchell Robinson's role has been shrinking in this series, falling to the level of two points and two shot attempts in just 14 minutes in Game 3.

But I'm not sure that's the kind of role we should expect for Robinson moving forward, and if his minutes return to a fairly normal level, six points is a pretty low bar for him to clear.

Prior to Game 3, Robinson had netted at least six points in 10 of his previous 11 games dating back to the regular season. He's averaging 6.9 points and 26.3 minutes per night in the playoffs, and he scored six and seven points in the first two games of this series.

Our model projects Robinson right near his playoff averages in terms of points and minutes, pegging him to score 6.0 points in 27.7 minutes.

Austin Reaves Over 3.5 Rebounds (-152)​

Austin Reaves has become a critical piece for the Los Angeles Lakers. He's playing 34.7 minutes per night in the postseason -- up from 28.8 minutes per game in the regular season -- and that's a big reason why I'm into this over.

Reaves is averaging 8.3 rebound chances per game in the playoffs. He has snagged at least four boards in seven of his past eight contests. The lone exception in that span was a two-rebound outing in Game 3, a game where he had just 5.0 rebound chances. That was likely just random variance as Reaves still logged 29.6 minutes in Game 3.

The matchup helps, too, as Golden State gave up the most rebounds per game to small forwards over the final 15 games of the regular season (7.7).

We have Reaves totaling 4.3 rebounds in tonight's Game 4.