Go take a look at the numbers Ace posted in the Rubio thread. The net favorability numbers will eventually sink Donnie. As candidates start to drop out, the numbers of the other remaining candidates will rise will Don's will be stuck in neutral. Take a look at his net favorability among independents from the CBS poll just before the debate. Literally horrific at -31. That was before the debate debacle.
You want to take about numbers? Agree or not this guy makes a pretty strong case.
Brian Joondeph
Physician
The Republican establishment is playing a dangerous game going after Donald Trump. This includes Fox News, which is quite centrist, but is said to be sympathetic to the Republican establishment.
This establishment wants a party nominee who will go along to get along, reach across the aisle, build consensus, and keep the Chamber of Commerce happy. This is a proven model for electoral success. Just ask former Presidents Dole, McCain, and Romney.
Donald Trump is a disruptive force within the Republican party, much like Uber is in the livery business or Airbnb is in the lodging industry. Love or hate Trump, he is a novel candidate who says what he means, means what he says, and isn’t afraid to hit back when attacked. Rather than apologizing, Trump doubles down.
The game angerous not because the media talking heads are upset with Trump, but that voters are mad at the media and political establishment. More specifically, the Republican base is fed up with the current Republican party. Let’s look at the numbers.
Last weeks debate drew 24 million viewers. Compare that to the first GOP primary debate four years ago with 3.2 million viewers, and the most watched primary debate in 2012 reaching 7.6 million. Even the second tier “undercard” debate Thursday evening drew 6.1 million viewers. Sure more people tuned in to the second debate because it was later in the evening, whereas the first debate occurred mid afternoon in much of the country. But still, the second debate drew 18 million more viewers.
I can’t prove this, but I believe it’s safe to say at least half of those additional viewers of the “main event” debate tuned in for one reason. The Donald. If Trump was hosting his reality show for another season and not running for president, how exciting would a debate be between Walker, Bush, Paul, and the others?
Maybe 10-12 million viewers? If that.
What about the other half, the other 12 million viewers? If most tuned in because of Trump, assume most are Trump supporters. Voters sick and tired of the status quo, Republican promises to do and be different if given control of the House and Senate. Voters yearning for a leader not cowed by political correctness, willing to say what needs to be said, regardless of who it might offend.
Herein lies the problem. The perception that the “Washington cartel,” as Ted Cruz describes it, will be picking our candidates, not we the people. The conventional wisdom is that the presidential election will be between Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton. And the Washington cartel would welcome that. “If it turns out to be Jeb versus Hillary we would love that and either outcome would be fine,” according to one Wall St lawyer. Why not?
They both want to grow government, keep our borders open, nationalize education through Common Core, tweak but keep Obamacare in place. They could even run on the same ticket.
Along comes Donald Trump, disrupting the visions of Wall Street and the Chamber of Commerce, tapping into a nerve of discontent among the people. A candidate voters in flyover country are excited about, hence the debate viewership numbers. And the Washington cartel has its sharp knives out eager to deliver the death blow to his candidacy.
The attacks against Trump are attacks against an enthused electorate, eager for a different approach, a different type of leader. A rebellion of sorts. Squash the rebellion and the spirits of the Republican electorate, and they tune out. Better to let the process play out. The odds are against Trump winning the nomination, but his voice and ideas are important to the process, and through him, the voices of many unhappy Republican voters. Who when dissed by the establishment will begin ignoring the calls for money and support, and ultimately for turnout in November 2016.
The Republican establishment has itself to blame for Donald Trump. Nature abhors a vacuum. Trump is filling it.
Squash Trump and along with it the enthusiasm of an electorate the Republicans desperately need. A dangerous game indeed.
