Michael, what did you do? Congrats for Spadea, wise play from him to give the second set preparing to the third but it is hard for me to believe Russell was in full condition because of the breaks amount he gave...well this is tennis, little things.
A.Delic - R.Kendrick -178 3/10 WON +1,68
S.Grosjean - D.Hartfield +129 9/10 WON +11,61
M.Zabaleta - R.Sweeting +264 1/10 LOST -1,00
F.Volandri - I.Andreev -148 2/10 LOST -2,00
E.Gulbis - J.C.Ferrero +380 2/10 LOST -2,00
Russell - Spadea -156 8/10 LOST -8,00
Record:
34-37-3
+29,34
risked 324 units
1 unit flat betting +4,04
A.Delic - R.Kendrick -178 3/10 WON +1,68
S.Grosjean - D.Hartfield +129 9/10 WON +11,61
M.Zabaleta - R.Sweeting +264 1/10 LOST -1,00
F.Volandri - I.Andreev -148 2/10 LOST -2,00
E.Gulbis - J.C.Ferrero +380 2/10 LOST -2,00
Russell - Spadea -156 8/10 LOST -8,00
Record:
34-37-3
+29,34
risked 324 units
1 unit flat betting +4,04
V.Williams - Y-H.Chan +900 1/10
Chan beated Serena Williams who retired in the first set. Chan has a good movement and she can definately do some damage for other Williams.
I-Navarro-Pastor - A.Gensse +397 2/10
I have no idea what is Gensse's strongness or weakness but I think it is grazy to make Navarro so big favourite considering his last three losses for Fornell-Mestress, Vagnozzi and Luzzi. Navarro has some good results from last year when he played a lot challengers. For example he beated Nicolas Almagro but his last losses are telling he is in bad form if you compare to last season and this match might be pretty round. With home advantage Navarro is clear favourite but no way so big.
Chan beated Serena Williams who retired in the first set. Chan has a good movement and she can definately do some damage for other Williams.
I-Navarro-Pastor - A.Gensse +397 2/10
I have no idea what is Gensse's strongness or weakness but I think it is grazy to make Navarro so big favourite considering his last three losses for Fornell-Mestress, Vagnozzi and Luzzi. Navarro has some good results from last year when he played a lot challengers. For example he beated Nicolas Almagro but his last losses are telling he is in bad form if you compare to last season and this match might be pretty round. With home advantage Navarro is clear favourite but no way so big.
Charleston Winner T.Golovin +500 3/10
Odds have rosen from yesterday and this is from Centrebet. Hope 1 talked about Golovin eysterday in his own thread and this seems very decent bet. Big thanks for him. By the way I should stay away from big underdogs when it is early. Their odds are almost always rising, Chan now over +1300.
GL
Odds have rosen from yesterday and this is from Centrebet. Hope 1 talked about Golovin eysterday in his own thread and this seems very decent bet. Big thanks for him. By the way I should stay away from big underdogs when it is early. Their odds are almost always rising, Chan now over +1300.
GL
Both Chan and Gnesse lost their matches. Chan had no chances agains Venus and Gnesse kept his serve well but that was all he was capable to do.
For today:
Will T.Haas win 2-0 No +167 2/10
T.Haas - N.Devilder +480 1/10
Haas had tight match with Querrey after his DC week. Probably he was tired but in the end he smashed Querrey. Haas has had unexpectable problems with his opponents lately and I think it is very probable for Devilder to take at least one set.
For tomorrow:
A.Montanes - V.Spadea +107 10/10
Montanes takes this three times out of five imo. I have nothing special to reasonize. Just not understanding the odds.
J.Melzer - M.Zabaleta +125 3/10
Melzer obviously has anymore no problems with his wrist and this surface suits for him very well. He beated Hanescu at previous round who against he had lifetime record 2-7 and had lost last four previous matches. I think Zabaleta is underestimated by the bookies because of his last season which was full of injuries but now he is playing very well. I would stake more but Melzer feels to be very dangerous opponent right now.
For today:
Will T.Haas win 2-0 No +167 2/10
T.Haas - N.Devilder +480 1/10
Haas had tight match with Querrey after his DC week. Probably he was tired but in the end he smashed Querrey. Haas has had unexpectable problems with his opponents lately and I think it is very probable for Devilder to take at least one set.
For tomorrow:
A.Montanes - V.Spadea +107 10/10
Montanes takes this three times out of five imo. I have nothing special to reasonize. Just not understanding the odds.
J.Melzer - M.Zabaleta +125 3/10
Melzer obviously has anymore no problems with his wrist and this surface suits for him very well. He beated Hanescu at previous round who against he had lifetime record 2-7 and had lost last four previous matches. I think Zabaleta is underestimated by the bookies because of his last season which was full of injuries but now he is playing very well. I would stake more but Melzer feels to be very dangerous opponent right now.
D.Safina - T.Golovin -153 5/10
Eight bets wroten here in row wrong...sorry about that so the win of the Montanes feels very good and right now Zabaleta is looking very strong.
Totally 8 units for Golovin because 3 units for Golovin to win the tournament. The odds for her were bigger earlier but after long thinking I decided to take the risk and bet her. I trust the advantage from the speed of the court is big enough for Golovin.
GL
Eight bets wroten here in row wrong...sorry about that so the win of the Montanes feels very good and right now Zabaleta is looking very strong.
Totally 8 units for Golovin because 3 units for Golovin to win the tournament. The odds for her were bigger earlier but after long thinking I decided to take the risk and bet her. I trust the advantage from the speed of the court is big enough for Golovin.
GL
V.Williams - Y-H.Chan +900 1/10 LOST -1,00
I-Navarro-Pastor - A.Gensse +397 2/10 LOST -2,00
Will T.Haas win 2-0 No +167 2/10 LOST -2,00
T.Haas - N.Devilder +480 1/10 LOST -1,00
A.Montanes - V.Spadea +107 10/10 WON +10,70
J.Melzer - M.Zabaleta +125 3/10 WON +3,75
D.Safina - T.Golovin -153 5/10 VOIDED
Charleston Winner T.Golovin +500 3/10 LOST -3,00
Record:
36-42-4
+34,79
risked 351 units
1 unit flat betting +1,36
I-Navarro-Pastor - A.Gensse +397 2/10 LOST -2,00
Will T.Haas win 2-0 No +167 2/10 LOST -2,00
T.Haas - N.Devilder +480 1/10 LOST -1,00
A.Montanes - V.Spadea +107 10/10 WON +10,70
J.Melzer - M.Zabaleta +125 3/10 WON +3,75
D.Safina - T.Golovin -153 5/10 VOIDED
Charleston Winner T.Golovin +500 3/10 LOST -3,00
Record:
36-42-4
+34,79
risked 351 units
1 unit flat betting +1,36
sorry if I caused you monies on the Golovin futures play. Good grief, 'fatigue' is a reason to quit? My play vs Dinara was void too, luckily played it at Pinny--infact, got up real early to get the line cause I knew monies would flow on Tati.
excellent calls on Montanes and Mariano-- what was that by Zabaleta?..nice to see him healthy for '07, hopefully he can stay healthy for the remainder of the yr
excellent calls on Montanes and Mariano-- what was that by Zabaleta?..nice to see him healthy for '07, hopefully he can stay healthy for the remainder of the yr
It's ok. I thought and am still thinking the play had great value and of course when you bet somebody with +500 odds it will go more often wrong than right (if not, you are not from this world) but it was definately worth of a shot imo and I would do it again if I had a chance, not of course if I knew the result of this match but you know what I mean.
Very intresting matches tomorrow in Houston. Karlovic's serve hard to break but Montanes is good returner so he should be capable to do couple breaks and Ivo is not so good in rallies so I think Montanes should have clear edge in this match.
I don't know how bookies will rank Zabaleta now but I think if he meets Blake we will have some nice value but if he meets Monaco he will be favoured clearly and he should beat him too. Monaco and Blake now in the third set.
Very intresting matches tomorrow in Houston. Karlovic's serve hard to break but Montanes is good returner so he should be capable to do couple breaks and Ivo is not so good in rallies so I think Montanes should have clear edge in this match.
I don't know how bookies will rank Zabaleta now but I think if he meets Blake we will have some nice value but if he meets Monaco he will be favoured clearly and he should beat him too. Monaco and Blake now in the third set.
Not able to see 5dimes odds but somewhere it is right now +4 and somewhere else +3,5 for Mariano.
This Saturday feels grazy. I'am playing all expect one match.
A.Montanes - I.Karlovic +111 10/10
For me Montanes takes this four times out of seven. Great server against good returner on clay even this is on very fast clay it should favour Montanes.
I.Navarro-Pastor - P.Starace +157 2/10
I was betting against Navarro this week but he has shown great form and Starace has been lesser confident in his matches so I'am trying this. They have met three times before all on clay and Starace has won every match in three sets.
V.Zvonareva - D.Safina -120 3/10
I was thinking I have a possibility to bet Zvonareva but just did not believed this odd. I don't like this bet so much but with this odd it is must take.
V.Williams - V.Zvonareva -110 6/10
Once again nothing to explain why odds are so high with Venus.
M.Zabaleta - J.Blake +206 3/10
Blake has been strugling all year in US and Zabaleta has shown very good signs.
GL
This Saturday feels grazy. I'am playing all expect one match.
A.Montanes - I.Karlovic +111 10/10
For me Montanes takes this four times out of seven. Great server against good returner on clay even this is on very fast clay it should favour Montanes.
I.Navarro-Pastor - P.Starace +157 2/10
I was betting against Navarro this week but he has shown great form and Starace has been lesser confident in his matches so I'am trying this. They have met three times before all on clay and Starace has won every match in three sets.
V.Zvonareva - D.Safina -120 3/10
I was thinking I have a possibility to bet Zvonareva but just did not believed this odd. I don't like this bet so much but with this odd it is must take.
V.Williams - V.Zvonareva -110 6/10
Once again nothing to explain why odds are so high with Venus.
M.Zabaleta - J.Blake +206 3/10
Blake has been strugling all year in US and Zabaleta has shown very good signs.
GL
Venus/Jancokic really was a cracker, for some time it looked good for Venus but then... bad tips yeaterday. Have to update record later but three games for today:
D.Safina - J.Jankovic +186 10/10
This is even game for me. Grazy odds.
I.Karlovic - Z.Zabaleta -111 10/10
In the firs set Montanes had three break points and Karlovic none and in the end tiebreak king Ivo did the job and Montanes was beaten. I'am not rating Karlovic higher because of this win and Zabaleta is more dangerous opponent than Montanes. We are on a fast clay but it is funny that Dmitri Tursunov who hates clay won at River Oaks and now other "clay specialist" Ivo Karlovic has a possibility to win the tournament.
J.Nieminen - M.Safin +140 5/10
Safin has dominated Nieminen lately but their last meeting at Indian Wells ended for Nieminen who is now very concentrated and motivated and in good shape. Safin is somebody who can do anything this is also pretty even game for me.
D.Safina - J.Jankovic +186 10/10
This is even game for me. Grazy odds.
I.Karlovic - Z.Zabaleta -111 10/10
In the firs set Montanes had three break points and Karlovic none and in the end tiebreak king Ivo did the job and Montanes was beaten. I'am not rating Karlovic higher because of this win and Zabaleta is more dangerous opponent than Montanes. We are on a fast clay but it is funny that Dmitri Tursunov who hates clay won at River Oaks and now other "clay specialist" Ivo Karlovic has a possibility to win the tournament.
J.Nieminen - M.Safin +140 5/10
Safin has dominated Nieminen lately but their last meeting at Indian Wells ended for Nieminen who is now very concentrated and motivated and in good shape. Safin is somebody who can do anything this is also pretty even game for me.
Everything wrong. Sorry if anybody followed. Record now -2,03. I think I'am off from writing tips for some time.
Anyway my strongest play to Monte Carlo right now is Gaudio over Tursunov -120. Gaudio is pure and talented clay court player who's game has been missing from last year. Very similar career right now compared to Ferrero or Coria. Dmitri won at River Oaks but that was fast clay and this is slow clay and you could say Dmitri is pure no slow court player so for me Gaudio is big favourite. If Gaudio will be struggling on a court like this against a player like Tursunov it is like goodbay for his hopes of better game for some time. He is not so old yet after all.
Anyway my strongest play to Monte Carlo right now is Gaudio over Tursunov -120. Gaudio is pure and talented clay court player who's game has been missing from last year. Very similar career right now compared to Ferrero or Coria. Dmitri won at River Oaks but that was fast clay and this is slow clay and you could say Dmitri is pure no slow court player so for me Gaudio is big favourite. If Gaudio will be struggling on a court like this against a player like Tursunov it is like goodbay for his hopes of better game for some time. He is not so old yet after all.
I hope you continue to post your picks/thoughts, Levi. I have enjoyed your reads and it's clear you know what your talkgin about. I understand the need for breaks from posting tho, tennis punting can be very volatile. This being the first clay tourney of the yr for many players makes Monte Carlo alwasys a dangerous tournament, IMO.
EVERYONE was on Mariano today, and why not? Karlovic wins a clay tournament? good grief
I'm stayign way clear of Gaudio, likely for the rest of the yr, unless he gives me a reason to bet with him or agasint him. The man is madness. What is this guy doing? As you stated he is still relatively young-- for heavens sake he's a Roland Garros Champion and just two years ago went 41-7 on clay, with FIVE ATP titles on the dirt --he was a reliable, parlay machine for me then. Now he cant be trusted with the likes of Guzman. A yr and a half ago he would have been -450 to beat Tursy on this surface---how far has he fallen? he's -125 to beat him tomm. INCREDIBLE. He's 28, ....the clocks ticking Gaudio.......
gl
EVERYONE was on Mariano today, and why not? Karlovic wins a clay tournament? good grief
I'm stayign way clear of Gaudio, likely for the rest of the yr, unless he gives me a reason to bet with him or agasint him. The man is madness. What is this guy doing? As you stated he is still relatively young-- for heavens sake he's a Roland Garros Champion and just two years ago went 41-7 on clay, with FIVE ATP titles on the dirt --he was a reliable, parlay machine for me then. Now he cant be trusted with the likes of Guzman. A yr and a half ago he would have been -450 to beat Tursy on this surface---how far has he fallen? he's -125 to beat him tomm. INCREDIBLE. He's 28, ....the clocks ticking Gaudio.......
gl
Thanks for your words. I think I will concentrate more on livematches at this week because of start or continuing of the clay season, how do you like it more. Last year was good for me when the clay season started but now it is taking it back. I think I tried to be too aggressive and trying now to take it easier for some time. I can post some thoughts but because I don't stake much before they start playing or I might stay away from the match or play eventually the opposite to the match I speak about so I can not recommend others to play the game and not playing it myself.
Other games I like are Seppi over Gabashvili (-141) and Moya over Youzhny (+104). Seppi and Gabahvili both came from qualies and I think Seppi is class over Gabashvili. Last year was disappoitment for Seppi who played very nicely at the end of the 2005 specially on clay. He has played better lately even lost in straight sets for Falla in Valencia. Moya has beaten Youzhny twice before in three setters on clay. After Dubai Youzhny was very tired and we saw it in his results at Indian Wells and Miami. After those matches he won Gasquet on clay what was the first clay match of the year for both players so not so sure about his current condition and how it suits for clay. Moya has surprised me bacause he plays sometimes like he was young again. He has good memories from this tournament.
Baghdatis is "only" -310 against Mirnyi but I don't see much what mirnyi can do to hurt him, serve and volley? hardly not so. Baghdatis also won Nieminen on his DC match in straight sets what is pretty good result but not so sure how fast their clay courts were but I think it is a very good sign.
K.Vliegen - P-H.Mathieu -250 10/10
This is the game I have played already and the odds were little better, -250 is what it is now but I think it is still worth of the money. Vliegen is not weaponless on the clay but the reason why Mathieu leads him 3-0 in head to heads is because Vliegen has slow moving on the court and Mathieu has answer for his hard hits. I think this will be easy 2-0 for Mathieu like their previous meetings:
2007 Miami: 6-1, 6-1 (hard)
2006 Hamburg:6-2, 6-4 (clay)
2004 Metz: 6-4, 6-3 (i hard)
GL
Other games I like are Seppi over Gabashvili (-141) and Moya over Youzhny (+104). Seppi and Gabahvili both came from qualies and I think Seppi is class over Gabashvili. Last year was disappoitment for Seppi who played very nicely at the end of the 2005 specially on clay. He has played better lately even lost in straight sets for Falla in Valencia. Moya has beaten Youzhny twice before in three setters on clay. After Dubai Youzhny was very tired and we saw it in his results at Indian Wells and Miami. After those matches he won Gasquet on clay what was the first clay match of the year for both players so not so sure about his current condition and how it suits for clay. Moya has surprised me bacause he plays sometimes like he was young again. He has good memories from this tournament.
Baghdatis is "only" -310 against Mirnyi but I don't see much what mirnyi can do to hurt him, serve and volley? hardly not so. Baghdatis also won Nieminen on his DC match in straight sets what is pretty good result but not so sure how fast their clay courts were but I think it is a very good sign.
K.Vliegen - P-H.Mathieu -250 10/10
This is the game I have played already and the odds were little better, -250 is what it is now but I think it is still worth of the money. Vliegen is not weaponless on the clay but the reason why Mathieu leads him 3-0 in head to heads is because Vliegen has slow moving on the court and Mathieu has answer for his hard hits. I think this will be easy 2-0 for Mathieu like their previous meetings:
2007 Miami: 6-1, 6-1 (hard)
2006 Hamburg:6-2, 6-4 (clay)
2004 Metz: 6-4, 6-3 (i hard)
GL
Actually they were supposed to meet at French Open 2005 on the second round but Tursunov retired. Of course it was before 2006 which was a big year for Tursunov and Gaudio was then on the top of his game but odds for Gaudio were then something like -2000. Grazy how it chances in less than two years.
