Tennis Miami - Leviathan

[Hope1]

very nice call on Bolelli. I have never seen the yougn Italian play, but he sure has looked good this week--holy mackeral, a TMS event and wins over BOTH Monfils (who had won Sunrise the previous week) and Tursy, two players inside the top 50--are you kidding me???

Hidalgo really hurt you, I thought he had that match--Gaudio is entirely unpredictable.

 

[Leviathan]

Yeah, Gaudio is unpredictable but he has the talent what some players has not and it is maby stupid to bet big against such a players, anyway betting against Gaudio has been good for some time but hopefully he can fix his game. Now he has given his warning...just before clay season.

I can't see value betting favourites at saturday but here comes more underdogs:

A.Delic - J.Acasuso +206 2/10
Not buing that odd for Acasuso. Beating Youzhny at Indian Wells is dropping his odd so much?

D.Nalbandian - V.Spadea +290 1/10
Head to head history for Nalbandian 4-0 in straight sets. Nalbandian has not been himself anymore, there is no joy in his game. If Spadea can't win Nalbandian here then it is nowhere without injuries.

L.Safarova - E.Loit +210 1/10
Two lefties against each others. Both players have good record against other lefties but Loit has some surprising loses against other lefties on hard.


...and record with updated matches. I don't think Arguello is capable breaking Roddick back so I'am marking it lost:

A.Montanes - A.Clement +465 1/10 LOST -1,00
J.Tipsarevic - A.Seppi -104 4/10 LOST -4,00
R.Ramirez Hidalgo - G.Gaudio -138 8/10 LOST -8,00
S.Roitman - P.Kohlschreiber +380 1/10 VOID
L.Hewitt - R.Sluiter +465 2/10 VOID
D.Ferrer - J.Monaco +249 4/10 LOST -4,00
S.Bolelli - D.Tursunov +203 2/10 WON +4,06
G.Simon - L.Horna +150 3/10 LOST -3,00
P.Goldstein - A.Murray +640 1/10 LOST -1,00
M.V.Arguello - A.Roddick +1800 1/10 LOST -1,00
F.Lopez - M.Safin +180 5/10 WON +9,00
N.Li - T.Paszek +199 4/10 LOST -4,00
E.Bychkova - S.Bremond -134 10/10 WON +7,46
D.Hantuchkova - M.L.De Brito +1700 1/10 LOST -1,00

record:

16-15-2
+17,87
risked 163 units
1 unit flat betting +0,04

 

[Leviathan]

They are playing more matches today than I thought, more games:

A.I.Medina Garrigues - V.Azarenka -177 6/10
J.Kostanic - A.Bondarenko +183 2/10
F.Schiavone - J.Vakulenko +170 2/10

GL

 

[Hope1]

great job on the ladies!!!!

not sure why Francesca keeps getting these inflated lines, altho the books have adjusted somewhat since early Jan.

gl with the rest, you have the makings of a cracker of a day!!!!!

:toast:

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks. I was surprised how well Nieminen was prepared to the tournament. It is a little miracle he has not showed better results earlier in this tournament. He's variation game simply killed Korolev's one dimension game. It will be very intresting to see upcoming odds for Nieminen against Nalbandian. They have had thight matches in history and I believe Nalbandian is not 100% intrested in playing tennis and Nieminen said he played the perfect match so we might have a pretty equal match.


E.Korolev - J.Nieminen +109 2/10 LOST -2,00
D.Nalbandian - V.Spadea +290 1/10 LOST -1,00
L.Safarova - E.Loit +210 1/10 LOST -1,00
A.I.Medina Garrigues - V.Azarenka -177 6/10 WON +3,88
J.Kostanic - A.Bondarenko +183 2/10 WON +3,66
F.Schiavone - J.Vakulenko +170 2/10 WON +3,40

Record:

19-18-2
+24,81
risked 177 units
1 unit flat betting +1,14


I will look again if I can find some plays for tomorrow or at least I think they are playing these tomorrow. It seems prytty poor with men but with ladies I can see some potential dogs:

R.Kendrick - A.Murray +900 1/10
T.Golovin - A.Chackvetadze +138 3/10
N.Petrova - E.Bychkova +475 1/10
A.Sugiyama - D.Safina +236 1/10
D.Hantuchova - V.Zvonareva +132 2/10

 

[Leviathan]

Almost missed these ladies matches:

V.Azarenka - N.Vaidisova +229 2/10
M.Sharapova - V.Williams +136 5/10
Playing against Sharapova here. She has been in pretty bad form lately. It is like she has lost her selfconfidence. Two years ago Sharapova won here 2-0 when they met.
K.Kanepi - V.Dushevina +133 1/10
Y.Shvedova - T.Garbin -128 4/10
O.Rochus - R.Nadal +800 1/10
I will give Ollie a chance because Nadal had a hard match against Mello. Mello had a setpoint at the first set and after the match Nadal said he is not ok and he had problems with his left leg. Right...just like anybody believing because he says that always when the match is tight but I will give a shot.

These are tomorrow:

D.Nalbandian - J.Nieminen +191 4/10
G.Canas - R.Gasquet +124 3/10
I was thinking to get to play against Canas but against Gasquet I had to consider it again. I have a feeling that Canas and his defensive playstyle might be enough for victory against Gasquet.

GL

 

[Hope1]

gl today. I like Jarko as well, that line is madness.

VAMOS VENUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:toast:

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks for god about Betfair, was able to minimize losses. Grazy match between Venus and Maria. You will love ladies when you are on the right side when the game goes grazy but if you are on the opposite you will go mad.

P.Starace - N.Almagro +187 3/10 LOST -3,00
F.Verdasco - F.Mayer +107 3/10 WON +3,21
A.Delic - J.Acasuso +206 2/10 WON +4,12
R.Kendrick - A.Murray +900 1/10 LOST -1,00
T.Golovin - A.Chackvetadze +138 3/10 LOST -3,00
N.Petrova - E.Bychkova +475 1/10 LOST -1,00
A.Sugiyama - D.Safina +236 1/10 LOST -1,00
D.Hantuchova - V.Zvonareva +132 WON +2,64
V.Azarenka - N.Vaidisova +229 2/10 LOST -2,00
M.Sharapova - V.Williams +136 5/10 LOST -5,00
K. Kanepi - V.Dushevina +133 1/10 WON +1,33
Y.Shvedova - T.Garbin -128 4/10 LOST -4,00
O.Rochus - N.Nadal +800 1/10 VOID

Record:

22-26-3
+16,81
1 unit flat betting -1,08

 

[Hope1]

nice job using Betfair. Rooting for ya with Rochus!!!!!!

:toast:

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks, but I have to say I often also manage to minimize my wins, anyway nice start for Del Potro.

 

[Leviathan]

For tuesday:

D.Ferrer - A.Roddick +246 4/10
Ferrer has already won Roddick in Miami. Last year the numbers were 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 for Ferrer. Ferrer is a very good returner and I bet he makes one break per set and makes Roddick run and he is not so good in that and I'am not so sure how Andy can answer to his service game. I watched Roddick's game yesterday against Simon and Simon could have been more dangerous than he was but he made some easy errors. I would bet Ferrer even if odds for him were something like +180.

GL.

 

[Leviathan]

One more match for today:

Santoro - Ljubicic +253 2/10
They have had pretty tight matches in the past but Santoro is everyday older and older. Anyway Santoro won yesterday because of hard wind I would say. They don't call him the magician for nothing. I have heard Ljubicic have some sort of leg/knee injury what does effect his game but not seriously but I'am not so sure about that. Conditions are again windy what is going to be good for Santoro but this game is going to be at night so the wind might not be so hard then. I'am the most worry how Santoro can keep his own serve.

 

[Leviathan]

I have a pretty good confidence for Nieminen so I'am making stakes higher and at the same time it is sort of insurance. This bet is from pinnacle:

Will D. Nalbandian win 2-0 ? NO -151 6/10
Nalbandian is maby the best player when he is behind and when he is in right mood so this bet sounds safer for me than straight win where I'am with 4 units. I think or at least hope that Nieminen wins the first set safely but after that comes tighter.

 

[Leviathan]

What a match between Ljubicic and Santoro. The third set was like WTA, sadly somebody told Ljubicic in his last service game that this is ATP.

I was thinking about two matches day after tomorrow. Santoro made Ljubicic to run very much and his knee might not like that. Nieminen is lefty and I would bet that makes some problems for Ljubicic at least at the start of the match because they have not met earlier and I think he has some sort of problems with lefties. Nalbandian was coming back very strongly after serving under 40% first serves but when the score was 5-5 at the second set Nieminen's service game lasted 14 minutes and he hold it and that propably was mentally very hard for Nalbandian. Nalbandian managed to use very effectively Nieminen's backhand and Ljubicic is able to do the same but not as dangerously as Nalbandian. Nieminen is pretty good serve returner but his serves are bad. First serve is not very bad but his second serve is extremely bad and Ljubicic can keep his serve in thight situations.

Rematch from earlier tournament, Federer against Canas. Federer big favourite but I believe Canas has some changes. Canas is fighter not giving up just like Nadal and his defensive game brought huge difficulties for Federer last time. It even effected to his first service percentances and what is the most important thing made Federer frustrated. Yes...Federer says he was not injured in that match but some others say opposite. Now we can see how well Federer can keep his coolness or is he struggling.

During Ljubo Santoro match commentator told a funny thing. Safin was asked what he hates the most. He answered the dentist but added, no...there is one thing I hate more, playing against Fabricio Santoro. It would be cool if somebody asked the same question from Federer and the answer would be like: the dentist...no wait a minute...I hate the most playing against Rafael Nadal...no wait a minute...I hate even more playing against Guillermo Canas :lol:



D.Nalbandian - J.Nieminen +191 4/10 WON +7,64
G.Canas - R.Gasquet +124 3/10 WON +3,72
Santoro - Ljubicic +253 2/10 LOST -2,00
Will D. Nalbandian win 2-0 ? NO -151 6/10 WON +3,97

record:

26-27-3
+30,14 units
risked 221 units
1 unit flat betting +1,73

 

[Hope1]

awesome my friend!!!

:toast:

 

[Leviathan]

:toast:


M.Sharapova - S.Williams -130 6/10
I don't know which one played worse in Sharapova's last match. She or other Williams. No way she beats this sister with performances she has shown this far and maby she will do some progress but with this price I will give a try for Serena.

GL

 

[joker25]

Excellent day my friend, i guess you laid Santoro after the 1st set.

:aktion033

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks. Yes I laid but not so much as I should have laid. I was too greedy and at the third set I backed Ljubicic with low odds after the first break because I thought the game was over but that was only a start before break festifal. Stupid betting in that match but overall excellent day.


J.Nieminen - I.Ljubicic +182 2/10
I was hoping bigger odds for Nieminen.

F.Federer - G.Canas +10000 1/10
Was thinking options Federer will not win 2-0 but I am much more intrested in bigger odds. I will propably play later 2-0 for Canas with small stake when I will find good odd for that because I think if Federer is able to take a set his mastermind will take care of the rest but as long as he will not win a set it will come more and more difficult for him to play because I think he is not after all so strong mentally and it is more because others think he is and give him respect but if you are able to take his game away he is ordinary mortal, just like you and me.

 

[Hope1]

Vamos!!!!!!!

 

[Hope1]

we were all collectively on Serena

nice call

:toast: