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Weather Report

Week 13


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The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of New Orleans' last five games.
The Saints are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games.
The Bucs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games.
The total has gone UNDER in six of Tampa Bay's last seven games.
The Bucs are 3-6 SU in their last nine games.
The Bucs are 14-5 SU in their last 19 home games.
The Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against Tampa Bay.
The Saints are 7-2 SU in their last nine games against Tampa Bay.
The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against Tampa Bay.
The total has gone UNDER in four of last five matchups between the Bucs and Saints.
 

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MONDAY, DECEMBER 5

NO at TB08:15 PMNO +3.5
O 41.0
+500 +500
 

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DECEMBER'S BEST BETS !

DATE................................... W - L.................................%........................................UNITS

12/05/2022.......................1-1-0...............................50.00%..............................- 0.50
12-04-2022........................8-9-0...............................47.05%..............................- 9.50
12-01-2022........................1-1-0...............................50.00%...............................- 0.50

TOTALS............................10-11-0...............................47.61%..............................-10.50

****************************************************************

SEPT'S BEST BETS
TOTALS..............35-20-0..................63.63%...............+ 65.00
OCT'S BEST BETS
Totals..................40-42-1.................48.78%.................- 30.50
NOV'S BEST BETS
Totals..................42-29-4..................59.15%................+ 36.00
 

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Wednesday’s 6-pack
Interesting Week 14 NFL spreads:
— Raiders (-6) @ LA Rams
— Chiefs (-9) @ Denver
— Panthers @ Seattle (-3.5)
— Buccaneers @ San Francisco (-3.5)
— Dolphins (-3) @ LA Chargers
— Patriots (-1.5) @ Arizona

Quote of the Day
“To play quarterback, you’re not allowed to worry about anything except the task at hand. And that seeps into other areas of life. It’s not the healthiest way to live.”
Former Colts’ QB Andrew Luck

Wednesday’s quiz
Jim Valvano became famous as the basketball coach at NC State; where did he coach before he coached the Wolfpack?

Tuesday’s quiz
Trea Turner broke into the major leagues with the Washington Nationals.

Monday’s quiz
Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott played his college football at Mississippi State.

*************************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..

— Long time ago, 1986 to be exact, a guy gave me a chance to write a preview of the NCAA Tournament in my local newspaper, the Albany Times Union. Friend of mine worked for the paper and recommended me. The preview was about one-third of a page; it went well, and I wound up writing a daily tips section for four years in the paper, just above the odds for that day’s games, a miniature version of what I post here these days.

The man’s name was Al Vieira; I just heard that he recently passed away.

Writing that stuff was great fun, and it led to me to writing this space for the last 21 years; I appreciate Mr Vieira’s faith in my friend’s word and in me. He was a good newspaperman, our sports section was better because he was here.

RIP Al Vieira. Thanks again.

— Pet Peeve of the Day: When people refer to QB-WR-RB’s as “skill positions”, as if being a offensive lineman doesn’t take any skills.

If your offensive line isn’t good, your offense will be in the ashcan; witness this year’s Rams, who haven’t started the same five guys on the offensive line in any two games this season. As a result, their offense has struggled, the QB/star WR got hurt. It has been a cruddy year.

Blocking takes enormous skill, it is just harder to measure.

— Speaking of which, Rams claimed free agent QB Baker Mayfield off waivers from Carolina Tuesday; he figures to start most of the rest of the season. He would be an excellent backup to Matthew Stafford in 2023; if he bolted as a free agent (no one else claimed him on waivers) the Rams would get a compensatory draft pick.

Mayfield is 31-36 as an NFL starter, splitting two playoff games for Cleveland in 2020.

— This month marks the 8th anniversary of my retirement from working for New York State; one of the very few disappointing parts of being retired is this: Weekday daytime television sucks. Seriously.

There are some exceptions; March is a great daytime TV month, with college basketball and spring training games going on. This week is also an exception, with the winter meetings in baseball happening (this year in San Diego).

MLB Network has people on talking about baseball all day long, a good thing. Works better when teams make transactions; not whole lot of those so far, but……….

— Cleveland Guardians gave 1B Josh Bell a 2-year, $33M deal.
Texas Rangers gave P Andrew Heaney a 2-year, $25M deal.
Chicago Cubs signed OF Cody Bellinger for one year, $17.5M

San Francisco Giants gave OF Mitch Haniger $43.5M for three years.
Philadelphia Phillies gave P Taijuan Walker $72M for four years.

— Baseball had their draft lottery Tuesday; first three picks in July’s draft will be:
1) Pirates
2) Nationals
3) Tigers

— Busy day for a Tuesday in December; Tennessee Titans fired their general manager Jon Robinson, even though the Titans are 7-5 this year, leading AFC South by three games.

Couple weeks ago, the Titans’ offensive coordinator got a DUI late at night, after the Titans returned home after a big win in Green Bay. It is unclear if that played any role in all this, but the OC still has his job- Tennessee is 0-2 since the DUI.

Titans were over .500 every year Robinson was GM; they got whacked by the Eagles 35-10 in Philadelphia last week, with former Titan AJ Brown catching 8 passes for 119 yards and two TD’s against his old team.

— West Virginia QB JT Daniels is going back into the transfer portal, which is becoming an annual event: Daniels threw for 2,107 yards this year, his third college stop. Next year he will be playing for his fourth college team.

2018-19 USC— 12 games, 2,887 passing yards; 15 TD’s, 11 INT’s
2020-21 Georgia— 9 games, 1,953 passing yards; 17 TD’s, 5 INTs.
2022 West Virginia— 10 games, 2,107 passing yards; 13 TD’s, 9 INTs.

If nothing else, he can write a hell of a book someday.

— ACC quarterbacks on the move— These ACC QB’s are in the transfer portal:
Kevin Slovis, Pitt
Devin Leary, NC State
Phil Jurkovec, Boston College
DJ Uiagalelei, Clemson
Jeff Sims, Georgia Tech
Brennan Armstrong, Virginia

Six of 14 ACC QB’s are transferring this season.

— Some of the quarterbacks taken in the 2016 NFL Draft:
1st round— Jared Goff, Rams
Carson Wentz, Eagles
Paxton Lynch, Denver

2nd round— Christian Hackenberg, Jets
3rd round— Jacoby Brissett, Patriots
Cody Kessler, Browns

4th round— Connor Cook, Raiders
Dak Prescott, Cowboys— 135th player taken in the draft.

NFL Draft continues to be a fascinating subject.

— Kent State football coach Sean Lewis, the head coach, quit to become offensive coordinator at Colorado under new head coach Deion Sanders. Lewis was 24-31 coaching Kent, 1-1 in bowls- that was Kent’s first-ever win (1-3) in a bowl game.

Lewis’ offenses are known for playing with fast tempo, quick snaps; they had the 4th-fastest offense in the country this season. Playing in altitude in Boulder, a fast-paced offense will be designed to exhaust visiting defenses.

Colorado had to pay Kent State a $750,000 buyout to get Lewis to Boulder.

— Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei got benched early in the ACC championship game, now he’s in the transfer portal. Uiagalelei completed 59.9% of his passes for Clemson, throwing for 5,681 yards, with 36 TD’s, 17 INT’s, but he was 8-29 passing in the Tigers’ 31-30 loss to South Carolina, which led to his benching the next week.

— Georgia Bulldogs have been so good this season, QB Stetson Bennett hasn’t played in the 4th quarter in six of their 13 games.

— Chicago Bears’ last five games, they’ve been outscored 38-0 in last 2:00 of each half.

— There are 42 guys in the NBA this season earning $30M+; $30M for 82 games works out to $365,853.65 per game.

— UNLV hired Arkansas defensive coordinator Barry Odom as its next football coach; Odom went 25-25 coaching Missouri from 2016-19, going 13-19 in SEC games.

— New Hampshire 74, Boston College 71 OT
UNH led by 9 with 11:21 left in game.
ACC’s Eagles led by 5 in the overtime.
This is a horrendous loss for BC; the bottom of the ACC is awful.

— Illinois 85, Texas 78 OT
Longhorns led by 10 with 8:04 left to play.
Illinois made 10-23 shots behind the arc.

— Georgia Tech 79, Georgia 77
Yellow Jackets shot 57% inside the arc
Georgia was only 9-16 on the foul line.

— Virginia 55, James Madison 50
Game was tied with 7:51 left to play.
7-3 Dukes could make some noise in their first year in the Sun Belt.

— Arkansas 65, NC-Greensboro 58
SoCon’s Spartans led by 12 early, 26-21 at halftime.
Arkansas outscored UNCG 19-9 over final 5:51 of game.
 

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Armadillo Sports

Buccaneers 17, Saints 16
Tampa Bay drove 63 yards, scored winning TD with 0:03 left.
Bucs’ first eight drives: 49 plays, 216 yards, 14 first downs, 3 points.
Bucs’ last two drives: 21 plays, 154 yards, 11 first downs, 14 points.
Tampa Bay is 0-5-1 ATS this year coming off a loss.
10 of 12 Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.

Saints led this game 10-3 at half, 16-3 with 3:30 left to play.
Bucs were 8-15 on third down, New Orleans was 5-14.
Saints are 4-3 scoring 24+ points, 0-6 when they score less.
Saints covered their last five visits to Tampa Bay.
Saints have been outscored 77-28 in last 2:00 of each half.
 

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LAS VEGAS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games as a favorite in the last 3 seasons.

ARIZONA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games in the 2nd half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

DETROIT is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) in the 2nd half of the season in the last 2 seasons.

BUFFALO is 24-11 ATS (11.9 Units) in games played on turf in the last 3 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 37-20 Over (15 Units) at home when the total is 35.5-38 since 1992.

NY GIANTS
are 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) as a dog in the current season.

CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game in the current season.

HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse in the last 3 seasons.

KANSAS CITY is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents in the current season.

SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games in the last 3 seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after a non-conf game in the last 2 seasons.

MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games in the last 3 seasons.
 

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Long Sheet

Week 13


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LAS VEGAS (5 - 7) at LA RAMS (3 - 9) - 12/8/2022, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 71-99 ATS (-37.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 42-72 ATS (-37.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 48-94 ATS (-55.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 28-53 ATS (-30.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 40-67 ATS (-33.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
LA RAMS are 25-44 ATS (-23.4 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 171-211 ATS (-61.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (10 - 2) at DETROIT (5 - 7) - 12/11/2022, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 53-34 ATS (+15.6 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (7 - 5) at BUFFALO (9 - 3) - 12/11/2022, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (8 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 7) - 12/11/2022, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (11 - 1) at NY GIANTS (7 - 4 - 1) - 12/11/2022, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as an underdog this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 2-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (5 - 7) at CINCINNATI (8 - 4) - 12/11/2022, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 5-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (4 - 8) at TENNESSEE (7 - 5) - 12/11/2022, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
TENNESSEE is 40-62 ATS (-28.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 4-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (1 - 10 - 1) at DALLAS (9 - 3) - 12/11/2022, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
HOUSTON is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
DALLAS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (8 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (6 - 6) - 12/11/2022, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 46-21 ATS (+22.9 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (4 - 8) at SEATTLE (7 - 5) - 12/11/2022, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 76-50 ATS (+21.0 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (6 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (8 - 4) - 12/11/2022, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (9 - 3) at DENVER (3 - 9) - 12/11/2022, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (6 - 6) at ARIZONA (4 - 8) - 12/12/2022, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 293-230 ATS (+40.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 293-230 ATS (+40.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 112-81 ATS (+22.9 Units) off a division game since 1992.
ARIZONA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Week 13


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Trend Report
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Las Vegas @ LA Rams
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Las Vegas's last 10 games on the road
LA Rams
LA Rams is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Las Vegas

Houston @ Dallas
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Houston
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Jacksonville @ Tennessee
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 11 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville

NY Jets @ Buffalo
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games
Buffalo
Buffalo is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets

Cleveland @ Cincinnati
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Cincinnati is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games

Minnesota @ Detroit
Minnesota
Minnesota is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Giants's last 10 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 9 games
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games at home

Kansas City @ Denver
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games at home

Carolina @ Seattle
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games
San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

Miami @ LA Chargers
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Miami's last 17 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Chargers's last 10 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of LA Chargers's last 17 games when playing Miami

New England @ Arizona
New England
New England is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Arizona
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing New England


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Armadillo's Write-up

Week 14

Thursday game
Raiders (5-7) @ Rams (3-9)

— Las Vegas won its last three games, two of them in overtime.
— Last two weeks, Raiders ran ball for 218.5 yards/game.
— Raiders are 2-5 SU on road TY, with both wins in overtime.
— Las Vegas is 2-9-1 ATS in last dozen games as a road favorite.
— Raiders are 2-5 SU in games decided by 5 or less points, or in OT.
— Las Vegas led 17-0 in three of their seven losses.
— Last 11 games, Las Vegas’ opponent is 8-2-1 against its team total.
— Las Vegas is 12-8 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
— Under is 4-2 in last six Raider games.
— Derek Carr is 62-78 as an NFL starter.
— Raiders are 10-18-2 ATS in last 30 games vs NFC teams.

— Rams lost six in row, eight of last nine games.
— Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in last six games.
— LA ran ball for 171 yards LW, their best rushing day this season.
— Rams are 3-2 scoring 20+ points, 0-7 when they score less.
— In their losses, LA was outscored 121-46 in second half.
— Last three games, Rams converted 21-65 (32.3%) on third down.
— Rams stayed under their team total eight of last ten games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 2-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— Rams are 2-9-1 ATS last 12 games vs AFC opponents.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Rams have four takeaways in last two games (one in previous seven).

— Rams won four of last five meetings.
— Raiders came to SoFi in Week 1, losing 24-19 to the Chargers- they visit SoFi once a year.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.

Sunday’s games
Jaguars (4-8) @ Titans (7-5)

— Jacksonville split its last four games after 2-6 start.
— Jaguars are 2-6 in one-score games (decided by 8 or less points).
— Jaguars are 1-5 SU/ATS in true road games this year (won @ Chargers Week 3).
— Jaguars are 10-22-1 ATS in last 33 games as a road underdog.
— Last three games, Jaguars converted 11-39 on third down.
— Last three games, opponents converted 23-36 on third down.
— In his career, Pederson is 17-29 ATS in true road games.
— Jaguars are 10-23-1 ATS in last 34 games coming off a loss.
— Last three games, Jacksonville gave up 486-415-437 TY.
— Jaguars are 3-8-2 ATS last 13 AFC South road games.
— Three of their last four games went over.

— Titans fired their GM Tuesday, despite being in first place.
— Tennessee lost last two games, scoring 16-10 points.
— Titans are 0-2 SU since OC got a DUI coming home from road trip.
— Tennessee scored 19 or less points in seven of last eight games.
— Last three weeks, Titans were held to 63-88-63-87 rushing yards.
— First eight games, Titans ran ball for 142.3 yards/game.
— Tennessee has outscored opponents 157-106 in first half.
— Titans have been outscored 134-62 in second half.
— Opponents have converted only 49-161 (30.4%) third down plays.
— Tennessee held eight of last ten foes under their team total.
— Titans are 11-10 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite (2-1 TY).
— Under is 9-3 in Titan games this season.
— Titans are 14-8 ATS last 22 AFC South home games vs NFC.

— Titans won four in row, 10 of last 11 meetings.
— Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in last seven visits to Nashville.
— Over is 7-5 in last dozen series games.

Jets (7-5) @ Bills (9-3)
— 2nd-year QB White is 61-87/684 with 3 TD’s in two ’22 starts.
— Jets are 2-3 in their last five games, after a 5-2 start.
— Despite that, Jets won/covered six of their last nine games.
— Jets are 6-1 scoring 20+ points, 1-4 scoring less than 20.
— Jets were in red zone six times LW, scored only 16 points.
— Last three games, Jets converted 13-42 on third down.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 9-16 ATS as an underdog.
— Five of last seven Jet games stayed under the total.
— Jets are 1-6 ATS in last seven AFC East road games.
— Jets held seven of last nine opponents under their team total.
— Jets are 4-0 ATS this season, coming off a loss.

— This is Bills’ first game in Buffalo since November 13.
— Bills won their last three games, scoring 31-28-24 points.
— Buffalo is 1-4-1 ATS since their bye week.
— Buffalo is 11-7 in last 18 games as a home favorite (2-2 TY)
— Last six games, Buffalo was outscored 70-46 in second half.
— Last six games, Bills ran ball for 155.7 yards/game.
— Bills scored 24 TD’s on their last 78 drives.
— Buffalo has 60 plays of 20+ yards (opponents 46)
— 10 of 12 Buffalo games stayed under the total.
— Bills are 18-12 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win (4-4 TY).
— Bills are 4-2 ATS in last six AFC East home games.

— Jets (+10) ran for 179 yards, beat Bills 20-17 in New Jersey in Week 9.
— Buffalo has still won five of last six meetings.
— Jets are 3-7 ATS in last ten visits to western New York.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Ravens (8-4) @ Steelers (5-7)
— QB Jackson hurt his leg LW; backup Huntley is 1-3 as NFL starter.
— Jackson leads Ravens with 764 RY; next highest is Drake, with 421.
— Baltimore won six of its last eight games SU.
— Seven of last nine Raven games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Ravens led by 9+ points in all four of their losses TY.
— Ravens are 4-2 SU on road this season, 2-0 ATS as an underdog.
— Baltimore is 12-2-2 ATS last sixteen games as a road underdog.
— Last week, Ravens converted 3-13 on 3rd down.
— Seven of Ravens’ last nine games stayed under the total.
— Baltimore is 6-8 last 14 games coming off a win.
— Baltimore is 7-0 giving up 20 or less points, 1-4 if they give up more than 20.

— Pittsburgh is 3-1 since its bye week, with +6 turnover ratio.
— Steelers have no turnovers (+10) in their wins, 14 (-8) in losses.
— Steelers haven’t turned ball over since Week 8 vs Philly.
— In four post-bye games, Pittsburgh ran ball for 161.3 yards/game.
— In four post-bye games, Steelers converted 30-60 on third down
— Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS last eight games as a home favorite.
— Steelers are 4-8 ATS last 12 games coming off a win.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— Last four games, Steelers have 15 plays of 20+ yards (21 in first 8 games).
— Pittsburgh has been outscored 130-78 in 2nd half of games.
— QB Pickett is 4-4 as a starter in his rookie season.

— Steelers won last four meetings, all by 5 or fewer points.
— Ravens are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven visits to Pittsburgh.
— Three of last four series games stayed under the total.

Eagles (11-1) @ Giants (7-5)
— Eagles won last three games, scoring 40-35 points in last two.
— Philly is 5-0 SU on road this year, but 1-4 ATS.
— Eagles are 3-9 ATS last 12 games as a road favorite.
— Eagles lost average field position in four of their last five games.
— Eagles have 43 touchdowns on 117 drives this season.
— Last five games, Philly converted 26-57 3rd down plays (45.6%).
— Last three games, Eagle opponents converted 10-36 (27.7%) on 3rd down.
— Philly is 6-3 ATS this season coming off a win.
— Four of their last seven TD’s came on plays of 29+ yards.
— Eagles are 1-6 ATS in last seven NFC East road games.
— 3rd-year QB Hurts is 20-12 as an NFL starter.

— Giants are 1-3-1 SU last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Giants are 5-0 scoring 21+ points, 2-4-1 scoring 20 or less.
— Giants trailed by 10+ points in three of their wins.
— Giants are 9-3 ATS this season.
— Giants are 9-18 ATS in last 26 games as a home dog (2-0 TY).
— Last three games, Big Blue converted 12-37 (32.4%) on third down.
— Giants went over their team total six of last eight games.
— Under is 8-3-1 in Giants opponents’ team totals this year.
— Under is 8-3-1 in Giant games this season.
— Last three weeks, Giants gave up 160-189-165 rushing yards.
— Last three games, Barkley was held to 124 yards on 46 carries.

— Home side won last five meetings.
— Eagles lost 13-7/27-17 in last two visits here.
— Overall, Philly is 14-3 in last 17 games against the Giants.
— Four of last five series games stayed under.

Browns (5-7) @ Bengals (8-4)
— QB Watson was 12-22/131 in his Browns’ debut last week.
— Browns didn’t score an offensive TD (2 on defense, 1 special teams)
— Cleveland won last two games after a 1-6 skid (5-3 ATS last eight).
— Browns are 5-2 giving up 24 or less points, 0-5 giving up more than 24.
— Browns ran ball for 189-174 yards in last two games.
— Browns are 0-4 when they run for less than 171 yards.
— Cleveland outgained 10 of its 12 opponents, but they’re 5-7.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Browns are 21-28 ATS as a road underdog (1-2 TY).
— Browns turned ball over 16 times in last eight games (minus-7)
— Watson is 30-27 as an NFL starter, making playoffs twice with Houston.

— Cincinnati won eight of its last ten games (9-1 ATS).
— They won/covered their last four games.
— Three of Bengals’ four losses are by 3-3-2 points, all on last-second FG’s.
— Bengals are 1-4 scoring 20 or less points, 7-0 if they score more.
— Bengals scored 27+ points in five of last seven games.
— Cincy converted 57 of last 111 (50%) third down plays.
— Bengals are 6-4 ATS in last ten AFC North home games.
— Cincy scored 22 TD’s on their last 56 drives.
— Bengals went over their team total in 7 of last 10 games.
— Cincy is 5-1 ATS this season coming off a win.
— 3rd-year QB Burrow is 23-18-1 as an NFL starter.

— Browns (+3.5) hammered Cincinnati 32-13 at home in Week 8.
— Cleveland won last six series games.
— Browns are 2-5 ATS in last seven trips to Cincinnati.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.

Vikings (10-2) @ Lions (5-7)
— Vikings won nine of their last ten games SU.
— Minnesota is 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games.
— Despite being 10-2, Vikings outscored foes by 10 points (289-279).
— Vikings converted 17 of last 33 third down plays.
— Last three games, Vikings were outgained 1,244-828.
— Minnesota is 6-1-1 ATS this season, coming off a win.
— Last four games, Minnesota allowed 27 plays of 20+ yards (Vikings had 17).
— Cousins is 70-63-2 as an NFL starter.
— Vikings have 13 takeaways in last seven games (+7)
— Minnesota’s two losses this year: 40-3 vs Dallas, 24-7 at Eagles.
— Vikings are 5-7 ATS in last dozen NFC North road games
— Three of their last four games went over the total.

— Detroit won four of its last five games (5-0 ATS).
— Lions scored 31-31-25-40 points last four games.
— Detroit scored 19 TD’s on its last 51 drives.
— Last five games, Lions are +7 in turnovers (10-3)
— Last four games, Detroit converted 35-71 (49.3%) third down plays.
— Last four games, Detroit foes converted 37-75 (49.3%) on 3rd down.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 8-20-1 SU, 19-9-1 ATS.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 2-1 ATS as favorite (favored in 3 of 29 games).
— Detroit is 3-4 SU at home TY, losing by 3-3-4-3 points.
— Over is 4-2 in Detroit’s last six games.
— Lions are 6-1 ATS last seven NFC North home games.

— Vikings (-7) beat Lions 28-24 back in Week 3.
— Minnesota won eight of last nine series games.
— Vikings won four of last five visits to Detroit (3-2 ATS)
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.

Texans (1-10-1) @ Cowboys (9-3)
— Texans lost 10 of their last 11 games SU
— Texans are 2-8 ATS in last ten games, 0-4 in last four.
— Last two weeks, Houston trailed 20-0/30-0/7-5 at halftime.
— Texans are 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS since their bye week, giving up 27.7 ppg.
— Last five games, Houston is 43-138 (31.2%) on 3rd down.
— Last week, Texans gave up two defensive TD’s and a punt return TD.
— Texans are 10-21-1 ATS last 32 games coming off a loss.
— Five of their last six games stayed under the total.
— Texans averaged less than 6.0 yards/pass attempt in 9 of 12 games.
— Last three games, Houston was held to 148-210-283 yards..
— Kyle Allen is 7-12 as NFL starter.
— Texans are 2-10-1 ATS in last 13 games vs NFC opponents.

— Cowboys won nine of their last eleven games (8-3 ATS).
— Last five games, Dallas scored 28 TD’s on 62 drives.
— Last seven games, Dallas ran ball for 170.6 yards/game.
— Dallas gained 405+ TY in each of their last five games.
— Last nine games, Cowboys outscored foes 163-51 in second half.
— Dallas is 6-1 SU at home TY, 4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Cowboys are 15-11-1 ATS in last 27 games vs AFC teams.
— Dallas is +12 in turnovers in its wins, minus-3 in losses.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Cowboys are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.

— Cowboys won three of last four series games.
— Texans lost 20-17/34-6 in their two visits to Dallas.
— All five series games stayed under the total.

Chiefs (9-3) @ Broncos (3-9)
— Chiefs won seven of last nine games (5-4 ATS).
— Chiefs were held under their team total in four of last five games.
— Chiefs are 14-13-1 ATS last 28 games as a road favorite (3-3 TY).
— Last five weeks, Chiefs converted 60-100 (60%) third down plays.
— Last three weeks, opponents converted 20-38 (52.6%) third down plays.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Last five games, Chiefs are minus-4 in turnovers (4-8)
— Chiefs have 64 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 40.
— Chiefs are 20-8 ATS in last 28 AFC West road games.
— KC is 7-4 ATS last 11 games coming off a loss.
— Mahomes is 68-18 as an NFL starter.

— Denver lost four in row, eight of their last nine games (2-6-1 ATS)
— Broncos scored 16 or fewer points in 10 of 12 games.
— Last nine games, Denver was outscored 89-43 in second half.
— Last six games, Broncos have eight TD’s on 92 drives.
— Broncos allowed 9-10-17 points in their three wins.
— Last four games, Denver got into red zone on only 4 of 44 drives.
— Last six games, Broncos are 38-153 (24.8%) on third down.
— Denver is 9-5-1 ATS last 15 games as a home underdog.
— 11 of 12 Denver games stayed under the total.
— Denver lost field position last six games, by 6.5 yards/game.
— Broncos are 4-3 ATS in last seven AFC West home games.

— Kansas City won last 12 series games (9-3 ATS)
— Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in last eight visits to Denver.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight meetings.

Buccaneers (6-6) @ 49ers (8-4)
— Short week, long travel after Bucs’ dramatic win Monday nite.
— Buccaneers won three of their last four games SU.
— Buccaneers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last ten games.
— Tampa Bay is 6-1 allowing less than 20 points, 0-5 giving up 20+.
— Tampa Bay is a road underdog for first time since 2020.
— Tampa lost last three true road games, scoring 18-3-17 points.
— Last three games, Bucs converted 31-66 (47.0%) on third down.
— Tampa Bay is 8-7 ATS last 15 games coming off a win.
— 10 of 12 Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
— Bucs were held under 100 yards rushing in 10 of last 11 games.
— Tampa Bay lost field position in eight of last ten games.

— Rookie QB Purdy (25-37/210 passing LW) makes his first NFL start.
— San Francisco won its last five games (4-1 ATS)
— 49ers outscored last five opponents 73-7 in second half.
— 49ers are 6-0 when they score 24+ points, 2-4 when they don’t.
— Last four games, 49ers converted 41-78 (52.3%) on third down.
— In four post-bye games, 49ers ran ball for 133.3 yards/game.
— 49ers are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— 49ers are +12 in turnovers in their wins, minus-8 in losses.
— 49ers are 12-9 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Last four games, 49ers allowed four TD’s on 41 drives.

— Teams split last six meetings.
— Buccaneers are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Santa Clara.
— Under is 7-4 in last 11 series games.

Panthers (4-8) @ Seahawks (7-5)
— Panthers didn’t allow a TD in first half of their last three games.
— QB Darnold won his first 2022 start; he is 18-32 as an NFL starter.
— Panthers are 5-2 ATS since they changed coaches.
— Carolina is 3-3 SU at home TY, 2-0
— Panthers are 4-7 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
— Carolina has converted only 39-144 (27.1%) third down plays.
— Carolina is 10-8 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 19-42 SU.
— Eight of last 11 Panther games stayed under the total.
— In Weeks 9-10, Carolina was outscored 49-0 in first half.
— Three games since then, Carolina outscored foes 23-9 in first half.

— Seahawks are 0-3 ATS last three games, running for 64.7 yards/game.
— Those three games were all decided by 5 or less points, or in OT.
— Seattle is 6-1 when it allows less than 27 points.
— Five of Seattle’s last seven opponents stayed under their team total.
— Last three games, Seattle is 9-28 (32.1%) on 3rd down conversions.
— Last three games, opponents are 22-41 (53.7%) on 3rd down.
— Last three games, Seattle gave up 161-283-171 rushing yards.
— Seahawks are 3-5 ATS last eight games as a home favorite.
— Geno Smith is 20-25 as an NFL starter.
— Seattle is 8-14 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.

— Seahawks won seven of last eight series games.
— Panthers are 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in last five visits to Seattle.
— Last four meetings went over the total.

Dolphins (8-4) @ Chargers (6-6)
— Dolphins won five of last six games, scoring 30.4 ppg in last five.
— Miami is 5-0 this season in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Dolphins are 7-0 if they score more than 17 points.
— Miami is 3-3 SU on road this year, winning by 4-4-3 points.
— Dolphins were 0-7 on 3rd down LW, after going 23-46 previous 4 games.
— Last two weeks, Dolphins were outscored 31-7 in second half.
— Miami is +7 in turnovers in its wins, minus-10 in losses.
— Miami ran ball only 8 times for 33 yards LW, turning ball over four times
— Four of last five Dolphin games went over the total.
— Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in last nine games coming off a loss.
— Tagovailoa is 21-10 as an NFL starter.

— Chargers lost four of last six games SU (wins by 1-3 points).
— Last four games, Bolts were outgained 1,642-1,215
— Chargers are 5-1 giving up less than 27 points, 1-5 if they give up 27+.
— Last three games, Chargers converted 19-43 on third down (44.2%)
— Chargers have been outscored 158-93 in second half.
— Bolts ran ball for 91 or fewer yards in 10 of 12 games.
— Last six games, Chargers allowed 178.3 rushing yards/game.
— Chargers are +7 in turnovers in their wins, minus-3 in losses.
— Chargers are 7-4-2 ATS last 13 games vs NFC teams.
— Over is 6-4 in Bolts’ last ten games.
— Herbert is 21-23 as an NFL starter

— Miami won five of last seven meetings with the Chargers.
— Dolphins are 5-3 ATS in last eight road series games.
— Under is 12-2 in last 14 meetings.
— This is the Dolphins’ first visit to SoFi Stadium.

Monday’s game
Patriots (6-6) @ Cardinals (4-8)

— New England lost its last two games (6-3 ATS last nine).
— Patriots’ last five games: 5 TD’s, 18 FGA’s, 20 3/outs on 55 drives.
— Last two weeks, Patriots threw 75 passes, ran ball 27 times.
— New England is 6-0 giving up 17 or less points, 0-6 giving up 20+.
— Patriots are 1-4 SU when game goes over the total, 5-2 if it stays under.
— Last three games, Patriots converted 10-37 third down plays.
— NE is +7 in turnovers in its wins, minus-4 in losses.
— Patriots are 4-1 ATS this season coming off a loss.
— Mac Jones is 14-13 as an NFC starter.
— Four of last five New England games stayed under the total.
— Patriots are 12-9 ATS last 21 games vs NFC teams.

— Cardinals lost six of their last eight games SU.
— Arizona was outscored in 2nd half in each of its last 7 games.
— Cardinals lost field position battle in seven of last eight games.
— Arizona gave up 20+ 2nd half points in four of last six games.
— Arizona is 1-8 SU when it scores less than 29 points.
— Cardinals trailed at halftime in nine of their 12 games.
— Last three games, Arizona converted 15-29 third down plays (51.7%).
— Arizona is 7-6 ATS last 13 games as a home underdog.
— Cardinals outscored opponents 63-33 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Last six Arizona games went over the total.
— Cardinals are 6-9 ATS in their last 15 post-bye games.

— New England won four of last five series games.
— Patriots won 23-21/23-12 in last two trips to Arizona.
— Under is 3-1-1 in last five meetings.
 

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The Raiders are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of Las Vegas' last six games.
The Rams are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games.
The total has gone OVER in four of the Rams' last six games.
The Rams are 0-6 SU in their last six games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of the Rams' last five games against Las Vegas.
The Rams are 1-4 SU in their last five home games.
The Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the Rams.
The Raiders are 1-4 SU in their last five games against the Rams.
The Raiders are 2-6 SU in their last eight road games.
 

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NFL Betting Trends - Week 14
Kevin Rogers

Thursday, December 8

Las Vegas at L.A. Rams (Prime Video, 8:15 p.m.)


Raiders have now won and covered last three in surge reminiscent of late kick a year ago.
Vegas “under” 4-2 last six after preceding four “overs” in a row.
Rams have lost last six outright and though did get a cover vs. Seahawks, still only 3-8-1 vs. spread this season, 3-10-1 since late 2021.
Rams “under” 9-4 since late 2021 as well.

Tech Play: Raiders, Under


Sunday, December 11

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)


Traditional slugfest. Teams yet to meet this season, last three clashes have landed on “under” side.
Steelers covered both last season.
Ravens 10-4 “under” since late 2021, Steel “under” 10-6 last sixteen reg season games.

Tech Play: Steelers, Under

Houston at Dallas (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

Stumbling Texans no covers last four or six of last seven this season after latest loss vs. Browns.
Houston also “under” last four and five of last six this term as well.
After Colts romp, Cowboys 8-3 vs. line last 11 in 2022 and 5-1 vs. spread last six at Arlington (lone L on late backdoor TD by G-Men on Thanksgiving).

Tech Play: Cowboys, Under

Jacksonville at Tennessee (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

First meeting of season. Titans have won five in a row SU in series, 4-1 vs. line in those games.
Jags have dropped last four vs. spread on road in 2022, just 2-7 last nine vs. spread this season.
Tenn “under” 9-1 last ten at Nashville.

Tech Play: Titans, Under

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

Jets won and covered first meeting Nov. 6 at MetLife.
J-Men have lost last two vs. spread on road this season after covering first four away.
Bills have covered 2 of last 3 this season after Patriots win but just 2-4 last six vs. spread since late October.
Buffalo now “under” 9-3 this season. NY also “over” last two after “under” preceding five in 2022.

Tech Play: Jets, Under

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

First meeting of this season. Home team has won and covered last three meetings.
Birds 1-4 vs. line on road this season, also now “over” 12-6 last 18 since late 2021.
G-Men 5-2 vs. spread at MetLife in 2022, 9-3 overall vs. line this season, “under” 30-12-1 since 2020.

Tech Play: Giants

Minnesota at Detroit (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

Four straight series covers for Lions, who are also on 6-0 spread surge after win over Jags.
Dan Campbell 19-9 vs. line since taking over Detroit last season, also 14-4 last 18 as dog.
Lions “over” 10-4 since late 2021, Vikes “over” 7-3 last ten this season after Jets game last Sunday.

Tech Play: Lions, Over

Cleveland at Cincinnati (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

Browns romped 32-13 at home on Halloween Monday night, but that’s the last game Bengals have lost this season, 4-0 SU and vs. line since.
Cleveland has actually won last 5 SU in series, but Cincy 9-3 vs. spread this season.
Bengals 17-3 last 20 on board since late 2021, also “under” 11-5-1 since late 2021.

Tech Play: Bengals

Kansas City at Denver (CBS, 4:05 p.m.)

First meeting this season. Chiefs now on 13-game SU series win streak since second meeting of 2015, the longest win streak in series history.
Broncos did cover 2 of last 3 meetings however when under direction of Vic Fangio.
Speaking of Fangio, Denver has extended the 12-5 “under” mark for him last season, and then some, now 11-1 “under” in 2022, 23-6 “under” since 2021, though one of the KC games went “over” last season.
Chiefs “under” 3 of last 5 and 7-4 last 11 this season.

Tech Play: Chiefs, Under

Carolina at Seattle (FOX, 4:25 p.m.)

Panthers have covered last 2 and 5 of last 6 this season (5-2 vs. spread for Wilks). Also “under” last 3 and 8-4 “under” this season.
Seahawks no covers last three this season (fell a bit short in Rams win) after four-game spread surge at midseason.

Tech Play: Panthers, Under

Tampa Bay at San Francisco (FOX, 4:25 p.m.)

Niners now 9-1 SU and 8-2 vs. line at Santa Clara since mid 2021 after win over Dolphins.
After Saints result on Monday, Bucs only 1-8-1 last ten vs. spread this season, also “under” 10-2 in 2022.

Tech Play: 49ers, Under

Miami at L.A. Chargers (NBC, 8:20 p.m.)

Bolts just 2-3 vs. line at home this season, 4-7 since mid 2021 vs. spread at SoFi.
After last week's loss at Niners, Dolphins 0-4-1 vs. spread last five away in 2022, also “over” 4-1 last five after SF game.

Tech Play: Over


Monday, December 12

New England at Arizona (ESPN, 8:15 p.m.)


Belichick had covered three straight this season prior to the Vikings and Bills losses, and he’s still 3-1-1 vs. points last five away in 2022.
Note Cards now 1-11 SU at Glendale since mid 2021, also 5-0-1 “over” last six this season.

Tech Play: Patriots, Over
 

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Thursday’s 6-pack
Interesting bowl spreads:
— Florida vs Oregon State (-7.5)
— North Texas vs Boise State (-7.5)
— Marshall (-9.5) vs UConn
— San Jose State (-4.5) vs Eastern Michigan
— Toledo (-1.5) vs Liberty
— Western Kentucky vs South Alabama (-2.5)

Quote of the Day
“You just got lesson number one: don’t think. It can only hurt the ballclub.”
Kevin Costner, Bull Durham

Thursday’s quiz
In The Natural, what number did Roy Hobbs wear while playing for the New York Knights?

Wednesday’s quiz
Jim Valvano became famous as the basketball coach at NC State; he coached at Iona College before he coached the Wolfpack.

Tuesday’s quiz
Trea Turner broke into the major leagues with the Washington Nationals.



************************************************




Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

— Baseball happenings:

Aaron Judge— 9 years, $360M from New York (A)
Masataka Yoshida— 5 years, $90M from Boston
Willson Contreras— 5 years, $87M from St Louis

Kenley Jansen— 2 years, $32M from Boston
Jose Quintana— 2 years, $26M from New York (N)
Jameson Taillon— 4 years, $68M from the Cubs.

— Paul Hewitt was 321-251 in 18 years as a college basketball coach; he went 66-27 in three years at Siena, which is a few miles from Armadillo World HQ here in Albany. Very good coach; he went on to coach at Georgia Tech in the ACC.

Hewitt is now coaching the Ontario Clippers in the G League, which is really good basketball but off the beaten path a little bit. His team is off a 10-2 start this year.

— NC State’s center Dusan Mahorcic got hurt the other night; this week they signed a recruit to replace him, Isaiah Miranda, a 7-foot-1 center and four-star recruit. He will be in Raleigh next week and will be eligible to start playing in January.

Miranda is from Rhode Island, has been playing at Southern California Academy in Castaic, CA and played in the Rhode Island Elite summer program.

— Wisconsin Badgers are hiring Phil Longo from North Carolina to be the Badgers’ offensive coordinator, which will make the Badgers look totally different on offense going forward.

Wisconsin has long been a ground/pound team with mediocre QB’s (except Russell Wilson); Longo’s offense at North Carolina ranked in the top 15 in total offense in each of the past four seasons— his philosophy is predicated around the Air Raid offense, more wide open.

— Stat of the Day: Eastern Michigan’s football team is 32-10-1 against the spread in its last 43 games as an underdog.

— The best QB’s in the bigger college football conferences earn an average of nearly $200,000/year in NIL income.

— Texas-San Antonio QB Frank Harris is coming back to San Antonio next year for his 7th year with the Roadrunners, his 4th year as the starter. Roadrunners are 30-9 SU the last three seasons, winning Conference USA the last two years.

— Kentucky QB Will Levis is skipping the Wildcats’ bowl game against Iowa.

I said it last year when Kenny Pickett did this at Pitt; I’m totally against a quarterback sitting out a bowl game. The QB is the leader of the offense, if not the whole team; it is the Al Pacino speech from Any Given Sunday, the one he said to Jamie Foxx:

“You’re a goddamn quarterback! You know what that means? It’s the top spot, kid. It’s the guy who takes the fall. It’s the guy everybody’s looking at first – the leader of a team – who will support you when they understand you. Who will break their ribs and their noses and their necks for you, because they believe. ‘Cause you make them believe. That’s a quarterback.?

— Rice Owls are in a bowl game, despite their 5-7 record; this will be their first bowl since 2014. Owls are a 7-point underdog against Southern Miss in the LendingTree Bowl in Mobile, AL.

— Thru 13 weeks, the top four WR’s, in terms of PPR scoring for fantasy football:

Stefan Diggs, Buff
Tyreek Hill, Miami
Davante Adams, LV
Justin Jefferson, Minn

— Thru 13 weeks, the top four RB’s, in terms of PPR scoring for fantasy football:

Austin Ekeler, LAC
Josh Jacobs, LV
Chrstian McCaffrey, Char-SF
Derrick Henry, Tenn

— Wofford basketball coach Jay MacAuley took a leave of absence (was suspended) recently, after players apparently complained about MacAuley’s coaching methods.

Under MacAuley, Wofford is/was 58-42, 30-23 in conference games. They beat Coastal Carolina by 10 Tuesday, in their first game without MacAuley.

— Illinois’ basketball team is 7-1 ATS in non-conference games, but they lost their Big 14 opener, 71-66 at Maryland.

— So far this season, Big 14 teams are 8-2 SU against Big East teams, 6-4 against the spread.

— UConn 75, Florida 54— If the NCAA Tournament started tomorrow, the 10-0 Huskies would be a Final Four team.

— Jacksonville 73, VCU 62— 5-2 Dolphins get upset win, jump 17 spots in the ratings.

— Brown 59, Rhode Island 58— URI is 2-7; Atlantic 15 teams aren’t supposed to lose to lower level Ivy League teams. Horrendous loss. URI is turning ball over 22.2% of time (#326).

— Miami 107, Cornell 105— 79 possessions, both teams scored over 1.3 points/possession, in other words, defense took the night off. Miami led by 21 early in second half, hung on for an unimpressive win.
 

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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 8

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
LV at LAR08:15 PMLAR +6.5
U 43.5
+500 +500
 

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DECEMBER'S BEST BETS !

DATE................................... W - L.................................%........................................UNITS

12/08/2022.......................2-0-0..............................100.00%............................+ 10.00
12/05/2022.......................1-1-0...............................50.00%..............................- 0.50
12-04-2022........................8-9-0...............................47.05%..............................- 9.50
12-01-2022........................1-1-0...............................50.00%...............................- 0.50

TOTALS............................12-11-0..............................52.17%..............................- 0.50

****************************************************************

SEPT'S BEST BETS
TOTALS..............35-20-0..................63.63%...............+ 65.00
OCT'S BEST BETS
Totals..................40-42-1.................48.78%.................- 30.50
NOV'S BEST BETS
Totals..................42-29-4..................59.15%................+ 36.00
 

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Armadillo Sports

Rams 17, Raiders 16

— Rams scored two TD’s in last 3:19 to pull out this unlikely win.
— Mayfield was 22-35/230 passing, less than 48 hours after signing with LA.
— Jefferson caught a 23-yard TD pass with 0:10 left for the win.
— Skowronek caught 7 passes for 89 yards, his best game as a pro.

— Raiders drove 75 yards for a TD on their first drive; it was their only TD.
— Raiders led 16-3 with 3:30 left in the game.
— Raiders are 0-4 this year when leading by double digits at halftime; according to Josh Dubow of Associated Press, Raiders are the first team since at least 1930 to do that.

— Rams drove 98 yards on 8 plays in 1:35 for the game-winning score.
— Why exactly do the Browns prefer Deshaun Watson to Mayfield??? WHY!?!?!?!?!
 

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Week 14 NFL Gridiron Betting Angles
Vince Akins

Play ON ATS Trend
Matchup: Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Seahawks are 19-0 ATS since November 2006 at home when they are not more than a 13-point favorite coming off a back-to-back against the spread losses.

Play AGAINST ATS Trend
Matchup: Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Lions are 0-13-1 ATS since 2011 when they scored at least 37 points last game.

OU Trend
Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Jaguars are 0-9 OU since 2021 when they threw for under 200 yards last game.

Choice Trend
Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Titans are 0-8 OU since 2020 when they allowed at least 320 passing yards last game.

NFL Super System
Matchup: Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Division teams that lost to a team in each of their last two meetings by no more than six combined points are 64-46 ATS. Active on Baltimore.

NFL Week 14 FACTOID
Matchup: Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

In at least week 12 of the season, a team that has won at least 78% of its games on the season has never covered as a dog against a team below .500 on the season. They are 0-11 ATS. However, most of these meetings occurred in the final week of the regular season. The 10-2 Vikings are dogs vs the 5-7 Lions.
 

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NFL
Weather Report

Week 14


AxPpoeo.png





The Jets are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
The total has gone UNDER in five of the Jets' last seven games.
The Jets are 6-3 SU in their last nine games.
The Bills are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
The total has gone UNDER in eight of Buffalo's last ten games.
The Bills are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games.
The total has gone UNDER in five of Buffalo's last seven games against the Jets.
The Bills are 8-1 SU in their last nine home games.
The Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Jets.
The Jets are 1-4 SU in their last five games against Buffalo.
The Jets are 6-14 SU in their last 20 road games.
The Jets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against Buffalo.


The total has gone OVER in six of Philadelphia's last seven games.
The Eagles are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games.
The Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Giants' last 20 games.
The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Giants.
The Eagles are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against the Giants.
The Eagles are 5-0 SU in their last five road games.
The total has gone UNDER in five of the Giants' last seven matchups against Philly.


The Dolphins are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last five games.
The Dolphins are 5-1 SU in their last six games.
The Chargers are 2-4 SU in their last six games.
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of LA Chargers' last 17 games against Miami.
The total has gone OVER in seven of the Chargers' last nine home games.
The Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against the Chargers.
The Dolphins are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against the Chargers.
The total has gone OVER in five of Miami's last six road games.
 

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SUNDAY, DECEMBER 11

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
MIN at DET01:00 PMMIN +2.0+500
CLE at CIN01:00 PMCLE +4.0+500
BAL at PIT01:00 PMPIT -2.0+500
JAC at TEN01:00 PMU 41.5+500
PHI at NYG01:00 PMNYG +7.0+500
NYJ at BUF01:00 PMNYJ +10.0
U 43.5
+500 +500
HOU at DAL01:00 PMU 44.5+500
KC at DEN04:05 PMU 44.0+500
CAR at SEA04:25 PMSEA -4.0+500
TB at SF04:25 PMSF -3.5
U 38.0
+500 +500
MIA at LAC08:20 PMLAC +3.0
U 55.0
+500 +500
 

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