NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 1
Sunday’s games
49ers @ Bears
— Last two years, San Francisco is 6-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last three years, 49ers are 16-9 ATS on the road.
— Won last three road openers, scoring 31-31-41 points.
— Since 1994, they’re 2-8 ATS as a favorite in road opener.
— Under is 7-5-1 in last 13 road openers.
— Shanahan is 14-7 ATS vs AFC teams.
— 2nd-year QB Lance split two games as a starter LY.
— Last four years, Bears are 6-9 ATS as a home underdog.
— Chicago started out 0-1 seven of last eight years.
— Bears won three of last four home openers.
— Under is 5-0 in their last five home openers.
— Last two years, over is 10-7 in Chicago home games.
— 2nd-year QB Fields was 2-8 as a starter LY.
— Since 2013, NFL coaches in their first year with a new team are 13-7-1 ATS as Week 1 underdogs.
— Teams split last six meetings.
— 49ers won 33-22 here LY, throwing for 322 yards.
— 49ers won three of last four visits to Chicago.
Patriots @ Dolphins
— 17-16 SU since Brady left; 4-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— Won/covered five of last seven road openers.
— Since 1998, they’re 6-1 ATS as an underdog in road opener.
— 6-6 ATS in AFC East road games since Brady left.
— Last two years, they’re 5-7 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— New England is Week 1 underdog for 2nd time since 2003 (won 23-21 in ’16)
— Last six years, under is 31-16-1 in their road games.
— 2nd-year QB Jones is 10-8 as a starter.
— Who is calling plays now, with McDaniels off to the Raiders?
— Last two years, Dolphins were 12-5 ATS at home.
— Last four years, Miami is 10-7 ATS in games where spread was 3 or less.
— Last four years, Miami is 7-4-1 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Over is 11-2 in Miami’s last 13 home openers.
— Dolphins are 6-4 ATS in last ten home openers.
— Since 2003, Miami is 2-5 ATS as a favorite in home opener.
— First game for the new coaching staff in Miami.
— 3rd-year QB Tagovailoa is 13-8 as an NFL starter.
— Third straight year these teams are meeting in Week 1.
— Dolphins won three in row, six of last nine series games.
— Miami won last year’s meetings, 17-16/33-24.
— New England lost four of last five visits to Miami.
Saints @ Falcons
— Last five years, New Orleans is 18-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last four years, Saints are 10-2 ATS in NFC South road games.
— Saints lost four of last five road openers.
— Since 2010, New Orleans is 2-10 ATS in road openers, 0-6 if favored.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six road openers.
— First game for new HC Allen; first game since 2012 without Sean Payton.
— Winston is 33-44 as an NFL starter, 5-2 with the Saints.
— Last four years, NFL head coaches in their first year with a new job are 0-10 ATS as Week 1 favorites.
— Last two years, Atlanta is 3-12 ATS at home.
— Last three years, they’re 4-8 ATS as a home underdog.
— Falcons lost last two home openers, after a 14-2 SU/ATS run.
— Since 1999, Atlanta is 7-2 ATS as an underdog in home openers.
— Falcons started out 0-1 five of the last six seasons.
— Last three years, under is 15-9 in Atlanta home games.
— Mariota was 30-33 as a starter with Tennessee, from 2015-19.
— New Orleans won seven of last nine series games.
— Saints won their last four visits to Atlanta.
— Road team won five of last six series games.
Ravens @ Jets
— Last year, Baltimore was 0-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Ravens are 9-5 ATS in last 14 road openers.
— Last six years, Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in Week 1 games.
— Last 15 years, over is 10-4-1 in their road openers.
— Under is 10-6 in their last 16 road games.
— Lamar Jackson is 38-15 as an NFL starter.
— Last two years, Jets are 11-20 ATS as an underdog.
— Last four years, Jets are 11-13-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Jets lost last four home openers (0-4 ATS), scoring 11.8 ppg.
— Jets started out 0-1 five of last six seasons.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five home openers.
— Flacco won a Super Bowl with Ravens ten years ago; he is 108-83 as an NFL starter, but is 2-11 in starts the last three years.
— Ravens won nine of last 11 series games.
— Baltimore won three of last four series games played here.
Steelers @ Bengals
— Since 2017, Steelers are 14-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— Pittsburgh is 9-2 ATS last 11 games as an AFC North underdog.
— Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 SU in last six road openers.
— This is 8th straight year Steelers are opening on road.
— Their last five road openers stayed under the total.
— Last eight years, under is 42-18-3 in Pittsburgh road games.
— Trubisky was 29-23 as the Bears’ QB from 2017-20.
— Last 19 years, team that lost Super Bowl is 4-15 ATS in Week 1 the next season.
— Last five years, Bengals are 7-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last three years, Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS in AFC North home games.
— Bengals lost four of last six home openers.
— Cincinnati started out 1-0 five of last eight seasons.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six home openers.
— Last three years, over is 19-11-3 in Bengal home games.
— Bengals won last three series games, all by 10+ points.
— Last time Bengals won three straight series games; 1989-90.
— Steelers lost last two visits here, 27-17/41-10
Browns @ Panthers
— Last 10 years, Browns are 17-64 SU on road.
— Last four years, Browns are 11-6 ATS vs NFC teams.
— Last three years, Cleveland is 7-12-1 ATS in games where spread was 3 or less.
— Cleveland is 3-0 ATS as a favorite in road openers.
— Since 2005, Browns are 0-16-1 SU in Week 1
— Under is 5-1 in their last six road openers.
— Brissett is 14-23 as an NFL starter, for three different teams.
— Last three years, Carolina is 15-34 SU
— Last three years, Carolina is 6-17-1 ATS at home.
— Last seven years, Panthers are 17-12 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Since 2011, Panthers are 7-4 ATS in home openers.
— Last eight years, Carolina is 5-3 ATS in Week 1.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine home openers.
— Obviously, Baker Mayfield played for the Browns (2018-21; 30-31 W-L)
— Does he have any special insight into their schemes?
— Panthers lead series, 4-2
— Browns lost both visits to Charlotte, 20-12/17-13
Eagles @ Lions
— Last year, Philly was 6-3 SU on road, 3-5 at home.
— Last two years, Eagles are 2-5 ATS as road favorites.
— Eagles lost three of their last four road openers.
— Since 2005, Philly is 4-8 ATS as a favorite in road openers.
— Eagles started out 1-0 in nine of last 11 seasons.
— 3rd-year QB Hurts is 9-11 as an NFL starter.
— Lions were underdog in every game LY (3-13-1 SU, 11-6 ATS)
— Lions were 6-2 ATS LY as a home dog; (10-21-1 from 2012-20)
— Detroit lost its last four Week 1 games (favored in 3 of 4)
— Detroit’s last eleven season openers went over the total.
— Since 1999, Lions are 7-4 ATS as an underdog in home openers.
— Over is 9-3 in their last dozen home openers.
— Eagles ran for 236 yards, hammered Detroit 44-6 here LY.
— Lions won three of last four series games.
— Teams split last four meetings in the Motor City.
Colts @ Texans
— Colts went 20-13 SU last two years, with +24 turnover margin.
— Under Reich, Indy is 7-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last four years, Colts are 7-5 ATS in AFC South road games.
— Colts lost 10 of their last 12 road openers.
— Indy started 0-1 seven of last eight years.
— Over is 5-1 in their last six Week 1 games.
— Ryan is Colts’ 6th different starting QB the last six years.
— Last 10 years, Texans are 11-16-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last two years, Houston is 4-2 ATS in AFC South home games.
— Texans are 8-4 in last dozen home openers.
— Houston covered its last three Week 1 games.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four Week 1 games.
— 2nd-year QB Mills is 2-9 as an NFL starter
— Since 2013, NFL coaches in their first year with a new team are 13-7-1 ATS as Week 1 underdogs.
— Colts won five in row, nine of last 11 series games.
— Colts won last year’s games, 31-3/31-0.
— Indy won won five of last six visits to Houston.
Jaguars @ Commanders
— Last four years, Jaguars are 9-17-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— While HC in Philly, Pederson was 9-13 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last nine years, Jaguars are 6-31 ATS vs NFC teams.
— Jaguars covered four of their last five road openers.
— Jacksonville is 10-8 ATS as an underdog on road openers.
— Their last three Week 1 games went over the total.
— 2nd-year QB Lawrence is 3-14 as an NFL starter.
— Since 2013, NFL coaches in their first year with a new team are 13-7-1 ATS as Week 1 underdogs.
— Last four years, Washington is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last three years, Washington is 4-9 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Washington lost eight of last ten home openers.
— Since 2009, Commanders are 1-5 ATS as a favorite in home openers.
— Over is 7-4 in their last eleven home openers.
— Last two years, under is 12-4 in Washington home games.
— QB. Wentz played for Jax coach Pederson with the Eagles; he is playing for his third team in three years.
— Washington won last four meetings, two of them in OT.
— Jaguars lost all three visits here, by 12-6-31 points.
— Jacksonville’s only series win: 2002.
Chiefs @ Cardinals
— Last three years, Chiefs are 20-4 SU on the road.
— Chiefs are 17-6-1 ATS last 24 games with a spread of 3 or less.
— Last seven years, Kansas City is 13-16-1 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Last two years, Chiefs are 6-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Kansas City started 1-0 the last seven years, scoring 35.1 ppg.
— Chiefs won five of last seven road openers.
— Over is 7-3 in their last ten road openers.
— Last five years, over is 25-15 in Kansas City road games.
— Since 2016, Cardinals are 14-22 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last 10 years, Cardinals are 18-13-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Arizona is 8-5 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Arizona won its last two home openers, scoring 30-34 points.
— Average total in their last three Week 1 games: 49.7
— Under is 7-3 in their last ten home openers.
— Last three years, over is 14-10 in Cardinal home games.
— Chiefs lead series, 9-3-1
— Home side won six of last seven series games.
— Teams split four meetings in the desert.
Packers @ Vikings
— Last three years, Packers are 17-8 SU on road.
— Last six years, Green Bay is 10-13-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last six years, Packers are 8-10 ATS in NFC North road games.
— Packers are 10-6-2 ATS last 18 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Green Bay is 4-7 ATS in last eleven road openers.
— Packers allowed 31+ points in four of last five road openers.
— Over is 7-2 in their last nine road openers.
— Over last decade, Vikings are 17-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last seven years, Minnesota is 12-8-1 ATS in NFC North home games.
— Last two years, over is 11-5 in Minnesota home games.
— Vikings won/covered six of last seven home openers.
— Last eight years, Minnesota is 5-3 ATS in Week 1.
— Under is 7-1 in their last eight home openers.
— Since 2013, NFL coaches in their first year with a new team are 13-7-1 ATS as Week 1 underdogs.
— Green Bay won four of last six series games.
— Teams split last four meetings played here.
— Average total in last four series games: 59.8.
Raiders @ Chargers
— Last three years, Raiders are 11-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last six years, Raiders are 7-11 ATS in AFC West road tilts.
— Raiders are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine road openers.
— Las Vegas won its Week 1 games five of last six years.
— Last 23 years, over is 14-8-1 in Raiders’ road openers.
— Since 2013, NFL coaches in their first year with a new team are 13-7-1 ATS as Week 1 underdogs.
— Last two years, Raiders are 18-15 SU, despite a minus-20 turnover ratio.
— Last 8 years, Chargers are 16-29-1 ATS as home favorites (4-3 under Staley)
— Last ten years, Bolts are 9-20-1 ATS in AFC West home games.
— Over was 8-3 in their games LY when Chargers were favored.
— Chargers covered once in last five home openers.
— Bolts started out 1-0 the last three years, giving up 17.7 ppg.
— Over is 14-5 in their last nineteen home openers.
— 3rd-year QB Herbert is 15-17 as an NFL starter.
— Raiders won four of last six series games.
— Raiders beat Chargers in OT in Week 18 LY, knocking them out of playoffs.
— Raiders split last six road series games.
Giants @ Titans
— Last four years, Giants are 19-10 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last three years, Giants are 3-10 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Giants lost 10 of their last 12 road openers.
— Giants lost last five Week 1 games, scoring 12.4 ppg.
— Since 2004, Giants are 6-9 ATS as an underdog in road openers.
— Daniel Jones is 12-25 as an NFL starter.
— Since 2013, NFL coaches in their first year with a new team are 13-7-1 ATS as Week 1 underdogs.
— Titans have had six winning seasons in a row.
— Last four years, they’re 10-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last seven years, Tennessee is 17-11-1 ATS vs NFC teams.
— Tennessee lost six of last eight home openers.
— Since 2013, Titans are 0-5-1 ATS as a favorite in home openers.
— Under is 7-3 in their last ten home openers.
— Titans won five of last six series games.
— Giants lost three of four visits to Tennessee.
— Daboll was OC in Buffalo LY; they lost 34-31 in OT here LY
Buccaneers @ Cowboys
— Last two years, Tampa Bay is 7-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last two years, Tampa Bay is 3-6 ATS on artificial turf.
— With Brady at QB, Bucs are 2-0 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Bucs lost last two road openers, 34-23/34-24.
— Over is 10-4 in their last fourteen road openers.
— Since 2013, NFL coaches in their first year with a new team are 13-7-1 ATS as Week 1 underdogs.
— Last four years, Dallas is 6-0 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Dallas is 6-10 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last three years, over is 16-8 in Cowboy home games.
— Dallas won its last five home openers (4-1 ATS)
— Last three years, Cowboys scored 35-40-41 points in home openers.
— Dallas lost five of its last eight Week 1 games.
— Cowboys won seven of last nine series games.
— Tampa Bay (-9) beat Dallas 31-29 in LY’s season opener.
— Bucs lost last five visits here; their last win here was in 2001.
Monday's game
Broncos @ Seahawks
— Broncos started 1-0 in eight of last ten seasons.
— Last ten years, Denver is 24-15-2 ATS vs NFC teams.
— Last five years, Broncos are 5-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Denver lost four of last five road openers.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four road openers.
— Last four years, NFL coaches in their first year with a new team are 0-10 ATS as Week 1 favorites.
— New coach, new QB, who is playing against his old team here.
— Last ten years, Seahawks are 8-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last four years, Seattle is 11-5-1 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Since 2003, Seattle is 14-5 ATS in home openers.
— Under is 8-3 in their last eleven home openers.
— Seahawk trends reflect Russell Wilson at QB; he plays for Denver now.
— Geno Smith is 13-21 as an NFL starter; he has started only five games since 2014.
— Russell Wilson (113-60-1) played the last 10 years for Seattle.
— Teams split last eight series games.
— Teams split last six meetings played here.
— Teams were division rivals from 1978-2001
