NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 13
Sunday’s games
Browns (4-7) @ Texans (1-9-1)
— QB Watson makes his Browns’ debut, against his old team.
— Watson was 29-27 with Houston, making playoffs twice.
— Watson’s last game was January 3, 2021 (41-38 loss to Titans)
— Cleveland lost six of last eight games (4-3 ATS last seven).
— Browns are 4-2 giving up 24 or less points, 0-5 giving up more than 24.
— Browns lost field position by 10+ yards in four of last six games.
— Cleveland outgained nine of its eleven opponents, but they’re 4-7.
— Over is 7-4 in their games this season.
— Browns ran for 217-171-172-189 yards in wins, 135.6 yards/game in losses.
— Since 2013, Browns are 3-10 ATS as a road favorite (0-1 TY).
— Browns turned ball over 14 times in last seven games (minus-9)
— Texans lost nine of their last ten games SU
— Texans are 2-7 ATS in last nine games.
— Last two weeks, Houston trailed 20-0/30-0 at halftime.
— Texans are 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS since their bye week, giving up 27.7 ppg.
— Last five games, Houston is 37-126 (29.4%) on 3rd down.
— Texans are 9-9-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home dog (2-2 TY).
— Texans are 10-20-1 ATS last 31 games coming off a loss.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
— Texans averaged less than 6.0 yards/pass attempt in 8 of 11 games.
— Last two games, Houston was held to 148-210 yards by Washington/Miami.
— Kyle Allen is 7-11 as NFL starter.
— AFC South underdogs are 12-11 ATS outside the division.
— Home side won last four series games.
— Browns are 0-5 ATS last five visits to Houston.
— Under is 8-3 in last eleven meetings.
Broncos (3-8) @ Ravens (7-3)
— Denver lost seven of their last eight games, scoring 13 ppg in last seven.
— Broncos scored 16 or fewer points in nine of 11 games.
— Last eight games, Denver was outscored 82-40 in second half.
— Last five games, Broncos have eight TD’s on 81 drives.
— Broncos allowed 9-10-17 points in their three wins.
— Last two weeks, Denver allowed 7.8/8.6 yards/pass play.
— Last six games, Broncos are 36-141 (25.5%) on third down.
— Denver is 1-5-1 ATS last seven games as a road underdog.
— 10 of 11 Denver games stayed under the total.
— Denver lost field position last five games, by 7.2 yards/game.
— Broncos are 0-5 SU in true road games TY- they won on a neutral field in London.
— Baltimore won five of its last seven games SU.
— Six of last eight Raven games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Ravens led by 9+ points in all four of their losses TY.
— Ravens are 0-4 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Last three games, Ravens converted 23-44 on third down.
— QB Jackson leads Ravens with 755 RY; next highest is Drake, with 392.
— Six of Ravens’ last eight games stayed under the total.
— Baltimore is 11-13-1 last 25 games coming off a loss.
— Jackson is 45-19 as an NFL starter.
— Baltimore is 6-0 giving up 20 or less points, 1-4 if they give up more than 20.
— Teams split last six series games.
— Broncos are 1-6 ATS in last seven visits to Baltimore.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Steelers (4-7) @ Falcons (5-7)
— Short week for Pittsburgh after playing in Indianapolis Monday nite.
— Steelers split their last six games, after a 1-4 start.
— Steelers have no turnovers (+9) in their wins, 14 (-8) in losses.
— In three post-bye games, Pittsburgh ran ball for 163.7 yards/game.
— In three post-bye games, Steelers converted 24-48 on third down.
— Pittsburgh is 3-3 ATS as a road underdog TY.
— Steelers are 3-8 ATS last 11 games coming off a win.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Last three games, Steelers have 13 plays of 20+ yards (21 in first 8 games).
— Pittsburgh has been outscored 120-75 in 2nd half of games.
— QB Pickett is 3-4 as a starter in his rookie season.
— Falcons lost three of last four games SU, are 0-6 ATS in last six.
— Five of their six home games were decided by three or fewer points.
— Underdogs are 8-3-1 ATS in their games TY.
— Atlanta is 1-7-1 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite.
— Last three games, Falcons converted 9-30 third down plays.
— Last 11 opponents converted 72-148 (48.6%) third down plays.
— Falcons are 14-12 ATS last 26 games coming off a loss (3-3 TY).
— Last ten games, Falcons ran ball for 163.5 yards/game.
— Mariota is 35-40 as an NFL starter.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
— Steelers won/covered last three meetings.
— Teams split last two meetings played in Atlanta.
— Over is 3-2 in last five series games.
Titans (7-4) @ Eagles (10-1)
— Tennessee won seven of last nine games (8-1 ATS), allowing 17 ppg.
— Last three weeks, Titans were held to 63-88-63 rushing yards.
— First eight games, Titans ran ball for 142.3 yards/game.
— Tennessee has outscored opponents 147-85 in first half.
— Titans have been outscored 120-62 in second half.
— Opponents have converted only 46-150 (30.7%) third down plays.
— Tennessee held eight of last nine foes under their team total.
— Titans are 9-3 ATS in last 12 games as a road underdog.
— Last six games, Tennessee allowed only 9 TD’s on 64 drives.
— Under is 9-2 in Titan games this season.
— Titans are 12-6 ATS last 18 games vs NFC opponents.
— Eagles ran ball for 363 yards in LW’s 40-33 win over Green Bay.
— Under Sirianni, Philly is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite (4-1 TY)
— Eagles lost average field position in each of their last four games.
— Eagles have 38 touchdowns on 107 drives this season.
— Last four games, Philly converted 23-46 3rd down plays.
— Last two games, Eagle opponents converted 6-22 on third down.
— Philly is 10-11 ATS last 21 games coming off a win.
— NFC East home favorites are 11-1 ATS outside division.
— Eagles are 8-13 ATS last 21 games vs AFC opponents.
— 3rd-year QB Hurts is 19-12 as an NFL starter.
— Tennessee won four of last five meetings.
— Teams split last two games played in Philadelphia.
— Over is 4-0-1 in last five series games.
Jaguars (4-7) @ Lions (4-7)
— Jacksonville won two of its last three games after 2-6 start.
— Jaguars are 2-6 in one-score games (decided by 8 or less points).
— Last three games, Jacksonville outscored foes 45-25 in 2nd half.
— Jaguars are 1-4 SU in true road games this year (won @ Chargers Week 3).
— In his career, Pederson is 17-28 ATS in true road games.
— Jaguars are 5-6 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
— Jacksonville had advantage in field position its last four games.
— Jaguars converted 32 of last 77 third down plays (41.6%)
— Jaguars are 5-15 ATS last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— AFC South underdogs are 12-11 ATS outside the division.
— Detroit won three of last four games, scoring 31-31-25 points last three.
— Lions covered their last four games.
— Detroit scored 15 TD’s on its last 43 drives.
— Last five games, Lions are +6 in turnovers (9-3)
— Last four games, Detroit converted 27-59 (45.8%) third down plays.
— Last four games, Detroit foes converted 34-63 (54%) on 3rd down.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 7-20-1 SU, 18-9-1 ATS.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 1-1 ATS as a favorite (favored in 2 of 28 games).
— Detroit is 2-4 SU at home TY, losing by 3-3-4-3 points.
— Over is 3-2 in Detroit’s last five games.
— NFC North underdogs are 9-9-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Lions won/covered last three series games.
— Favorites won/covered last five meetings.
— Over was 3-2 in those five games.
Commanders (7-5) @ Giants (7-4)
— Washington won six of last seven games (6-0-1 ATS).
— Heinicke is 5-1 as Commanders’ QB this season.
— Last seven games, Washington is +7 in turnovers (minus-7 in first five)
— Last three weeks, they ran ball for 160.3 yards/game.
— Washington is 4-0 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Commanders are 14-6-1 ATS last 20 games coming off a win.
— Washington won/covered its last four road games.
— Eight of their last ten games stayed under the total.
— Opponents stayed under their team total nine of last ten games.
— Last two games, Washington has 2 plays of 20+ yards (opponents have 7)
— Washington has bye next week, then plays Giants again in Week 15.
— Giants lost three of last four games, giving up 31-28 points in last two.
— Giants are 5-0 scoring 21+ points, 2-4 scoring 20 or less.
— Giants trailed by 10+ points in three of their wins.
— Giants are 8-3 ATS this season.
— Giants are 8-18 ATS in last 26 games as a home dog (1-0 TY).
— Last two games, Big Blue converted 8-24 (33.3%) on third down.
— Under is 7-3-1 in Giants opponents’ team totals this year.
— Under is 7-3-1 in Giant games this season.
— Giants are 14-11 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
— Last two games, Barkley was held to 61 yards on 26 carries.
— Washington swept Giants LY, after losing 13 of previous 17 meetings.
— Commanders are 4-2 ATS in last six road series games.
— Four of last five meetings stayed under the total.
Jets (7-4) @ Vikings (9-2)
— 2nd-year QB White was 22-28/315 with 3 TD’s in his first ’22 start.
— Jets split their last four games, after a 5-2 start.
— Despite that, Jets won/covered six of their last eight games.
— Jets are 6-0 scoring 20+ points, 1-4 scoring less than 20.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 9-15 ATS as an underdog.
— Last four weeks, opponents converted 27-90 (30%) third down plays.
— Five of last six Jet games stayed under the total.
— Jets are 4-7 ATS last 11 games vs NFC opponents (2-0 TY)
— Jets held seven of last eight opponents under their team total.
— Jets are 3-2 ATS this season, coming off a win.
— Vikings won eight of their last nine games SU.
— Minnesota is 6-1-1 ATS in last eight games.
— Despite being 9-2, Vikings outscored foes by 5 points (262-257).
— Last three games, Vikings were outscored 63-29 in first half.
— Vikings are 5-1 SU at home, scoring 25.3 ppg.
— Minnesota is 5-1-1 ATS this season, coming off a win.
— Last nine games, Minnesota has 29 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 46.
— Cousins is 69-63-2 as an NFL starter.
— Vikings have 11 takeaways in last six games (+5)
— Minnesota’s two losses this year: 40-3 vs Dallas, 24-7 at Eagles.
— Vikings are 25-11 ATS in last 36 games vs AFC opponents.
— Vikings won last two series games, 37-17/30-24
— Teams split last two meetings in the Twin Cities.
— Last three series games went over the total.
Packers (4-8) @ Bears (3-9)
— Check status as to whether Rodgers/Love plays QB.
— Packers lost seven of their last eight games SU.
— Packers are 1-7-1 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
— Green Bay went under its team total in nine of 12 games.
— Last four weeks, Green Bay was outscored 87-47 in first half.
— Packers gave up 363 rushing yards in LW’s 40-33 loss in Philly.
— Last eight weeks, Green Bay gave up 171.3 rushing yards/game.
— Under is 4-2 in Packers’ true road games this season.
— Green Bay is 1-7 when they run ball for less than 190 yards.
— Packers are 12-4 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss (3-4 TY).
— Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in last five NFC North road games.
— Check status on who plays QB for Chicago, too.
— Chicago lost five in row, eight of last nine games SU (2-6-1 ATS).
— Last five games, Chicago gave up 34.6 ppg.
— Opponents scored TD’s on 19 of last 42 drives.
— in Fields’ last three starts, Bears converted 25-43 on third down.
— Last two weeks, Bears were held to 160-127 rushing yards; not enough.
— Chicago is 8-10 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog (2-1 TY).
— Bears led at halftime once this season (1-9-2).
— Chicago is 12-19-2 ATS last 33 games coming off a loss.
— Seven of their last eight games went over the total.
— Last two weeks, Chicago was held to 288-292 total yards.
— Green Bay ran for 203 yards, beat Bears 27-10 at home in Week 2.
— Green Bay won last night series games, covered last seven.
— Packers are 9-2 ATS in last 11 visits to the Windy City.
— Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Seahawks (6-5) @ Rams (3-8)
— Seahawks lost their last two games, running for 39-65 yards.
— Seattle is 5-1 when it allows less than 27 points.
— Five of Seattle’s last six opponents stayed under their team total.
— Last two games, Seattle is 4-18 (22.2%) on 3rd down conversions.
— Last two games, Seattle gave up 161-283 rushing yards.
— Seahawks won field position last four games, by 4-9-12-11 yards.
— Seahawks are 6-9-1 ATS last 16 games as a road favorite.
— Seahawks are 6-8 ATS last 14 NFC West road games.
— Geno Smith is 19-25 as an NFL starter.
— Seattle is 12-6 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
— Rams lost five in row, seven of last eight games.
— Sounds like Perkins/Wolford will both play some QB here.
— Aaron Donald (ankle) isn’t expected to play.
— Rams are 3-1 scoring 20+ points, 0-7 when they score less.
— In their losses, LA was outscored 108-36 in second half.
— Last three games, Rams converted 17-53 (32.1%) on third down.
— Rams stayed under their team total eight of last nine games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 1-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last five games, Rams lost field position by 9-9-11-11-10 yards.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
— Rams have three takeaways in their last nine games (minus-8).
— Rams won 12 of last 16 meetings.
— Seahawks are 2-8 ATS in last 10 road series games.
— Last four series games stayed under the total.
Dolphins (8-3) @ 49ers (7-4)
— Miami coach McDaniel worked with the 49ers from 2017-21.
— Dolphins won last five games, scoring 31-35-39-30 points last four.
— Miami is 5-0 this season in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Dolphins are 7-0 if they score more than 17 points.
— Miami is 11-8 ATS last 19 games as a road underdog (1-1 TY).
— Dolphins converted 23 of last 46 third down plays.
— Miami is +7 in turnovers in its wins, minus-7 in losses.
— Miami averaged 8.7+ yards/pass attempt in 3 of last 4 games.
— Three of last four Dolphin games went over the total.
— Dolphins are 18-10-1 ATS in last 29 games coming off a win.
— Tagovailoa is 21-9 as an NFL starter.
— San Francisco won its last four games (3-1 ATS)
— 49ers outscored last four opponents 57-0 in second half.
— 49ers are 5-0 when they score 24+ points, 2-4 when they don’t.
— Last four games, 49er opponents were 41-79 on third down.
— Last four games, 49ers converted 33-64 on third down.
— In three post-bye games, 49ers ran ball for 137.3 yards/game.
— 49ers trailed four of last six games at halftime.
— Under is 7-4 in their games this season.
— 49ers are +9 in turnovers in their wins, minus-8 in losses.
— 49ers are 11-9 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
— QB Garoppolo is 43-19 as an NFL starter.
— Miami won last two meetings, 43-17/31-24.
— Dolphins are 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Santa Clara.
— Over is 3-2 in last five series games.
— Dolphins coach McDaniel worked for the 49ers from 20
Chiefs (9-2) @ Bengals (7-4)
— Chiefs won five in row, seven of last eight games (5-3 ATS).
— Chiefs were held to 17-20 points in their two losses.
— Chiefs are 14-12-1 ATS last 27 games as a road favorite (3-2 TY).
— Last five weeks, Chiefs converted 54-89 (60.7%) third down plays.
— Last five games, Kansas City outgained every opponent by 85+ yards.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Last four games, Chiefs are minus-3 in turnovers (4-7)
— Chiefs have 62 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 38.
— KC is 12-20-1 ATS last 33 games coming off a win.
— Mahomes is 68-17 as an NFL starter.
— Cincinnati won seven of its last nine games (8-1 ATS).
— Three of Bengals’ four losses are by 3-3-2 points, all on last-second FG’s.
— Bengals are 1-4 scoring 20 or less points, 6-0 if they score more.
— Bengals scored 30+ points in four of last six games.
— Cincy converted 50 of last 103 (48.5%) third down plays.
— Bengals are 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games as an underdog.
— Under Taylor, Bengals are 9-6-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— Cincy scored 19 TD’s on their last 49 drives.
— Four of Bengals’ last six games went over the total.
— Cincy is 4-1 ATS this season coming off a win.
— 3rd-year QB Burrow is 22-18-1 as an NFL starter.
— Bengals won six of last seven series games.
— Bengals upset Chiefs in OT in last year’s playoffs.
— Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Cincinnati.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Chargers (6-5) @ Raiders (4-7)
— Chargers split their last six games SU (3-1 last four ATS).
— Bolts are 6-9-1 ATS last 16 games as a road favorite.
— Chargers are 5-1 giving up less than 27 points, 1-4 if they give up 27+.
— Chargers have been outscored 141-86 in second half.
— Bolts ran ball for 91 or fewer yards in nine of 11 games.
— Last five games, Chargers allowed 183.2 rushing yards/game.
— Chargers are +7 in turnovers in their wins, minus-4 in losses.
— Chargers are 13-8-1 ATS last 22 AFC West road games.
— Over is 6-3 in Bolts’ last nine games.
— Herbert is 21-22 as an NFL starter.
— Las Vegas won its last two games, both in overtime.
— Raiders ran ball for 283 yards LW (Jacobs had 303 TY).
— Raiders are 5-8 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Raiders are 2-5 SU in games decided by 5 or less points, or in OT.
— Las Vegas led 17-0 in three of their seven losses.
— Last ten games, Las Vegas’ opponent is 8-1-1 against its team total.
— Las Vegas won field position in only three of 11 games.
— Las Vegas is 11-8 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
— Over is 7-3 in last ten Raider games.
— Derek Carr is 61-78 as an NFL starter.
— Raiders are 11-5 ATS in last 16 AFC West home games.
— Chargers beat Raiders 24-19 at home in Week 1.
— Teams split last eight meetings.
— Chargers are 5-2 ATS in last seven road series games.
— Four of last six series games went over the total.
Colts (4-7-1) @ Cowboys (8-3)
— Colts lost five of their last six games SU.
— Colts are 3-0-1 scoring 20+ points, 1-7 if they score less.
— Underdogs covered nine of their 12 games.
— Colts went under their team total in 10 of 12 games TY.
— Nine of their 12 games stayed under the total.
— Colts are 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a road underdog.
— Indy is 11-6-1 ATS last 17 games coming off a loss.
— Last two games, Colts converted 8-27 third down plays.
— Colts were held under 300 TY in three of last four games.
— Cowboys won eight of their last ten games (7-3 ATS).
— Last five games, Dallas scored 21 TD’s on 50 drives.
— Last six games, Dallas ran ball for 162.3 yards/game.
— Last eight games, Cowboys outscored foes 130-45 in second half.
— Dallas is 5-1 SU at home TY, 3-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Cowboys are 14-11-1 ATS in last 26 games vs AFC teams.
— Dallas is +8 in turnovers in its wins, minus-3 in losses.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Cowboys are 10-6 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
— Cowboys won three of last four meetings.
— Colts are 0-3 ATS in last three visits to Dallas.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Monday’s game
Saints (4-8) @ Buccaneers (5-6)
— Saints lost three of last four games, scoring 12.5 ppg.
— NO is 0-3 ATS as a road dog TY, after going 10-2 from 2018-21.
— Saints are 4-3 scoring 24+ points, 0-5 when they score less.
— Saints have one takeaway last six games; their turnover ratio: minus-15.
— Last 3 games, Saints have 5 plays of 20+ yards (opponents have 16).
— New Orleans is 13-8-1 ATS last 22 games coming off a loss.
— Saints have been outscored 70-25 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Four of last five New Orleans games stayed under the total.
— Last four games, Saints are 14-45 on third down.
— Saints are 10-4 ATS last 14 NFC South road games (0-2 TY).
— Buccaneers lost six of their last nine games SU.
— Buccaneers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games.
— Tampa Bay is 5-1 allowing less than 20 points, 0-5 giving up 20+.
— Tampa Bay is 0-3-1 ATS this year as a home favorite.
— Last seven games, Tampa was outscored 98-55 in second half.
— Last three games, Bucs converted 23-51 (45.1%) on third down.
— Tampa Bay is 0-4-1 ATS this year coming off a loss.
— Nine of eleven Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
— Bucs were held under 100 yards rushing in nine of last ten games.
— Tampa Bay lost field position in seven of last nine games.
— Buccaneers won 20-10 in the Superdome in Week 2.
— New Orleans won eight of last 11 series games.
— Saints covered their last four visits to Tampa Bay.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
