I really liked that NIU QB, but that early int. kind of hurt the 1H bet.
Small:
San Jose even 1H (-130)
San Jose -3 Not sure if that 1H bet is at all books. Going to split the money here. Rumor is that Byrum Brown might play for USF. It's been two months since he's played, and I'm not sure he'll be the same guy. Archie, the other QB, is nothing special. USF also has a pretty porous defense when playing a good passing attack like SJ has. Walker Eget, the San Jose QB, has an amazing stat- only 4 sacks. Good mobility, really good at passing into tight windows and on the run. Other than the driving rain storm in Vegas, Egat has looked sharp. Nick Nash will be missed, but San Jose has two other guys that I think will step up. They have been to Hawaii before a couple of times, but USF might be a little more wowed by it all.
Small:
San Jose even 1H (-130)
San Jose -3 Not sure if that 1H bet is at all books. Going to split the money here. Rumor is that Byrum Brown might play for USF. It's been two months since he's played, and I'm not sure he'll be the same guy. Archie, the other QB, is nothing special. USF also has a pretty porous defense when playing a good passing attack like SJ has. Walker Eget, the San Jose QB, has an amazing stat- only 4 sacks. Good mobility, really good at passing into tight windows and on the run. Other than the driving rain storm in Vegas, Egat has looked sharp. Nick Nash will be missed, but San Jose has two other guys that I think will step up. They have been to Hawaii before a couple of times, but USF might be a little more wowed by it all.
San Jose line at -2. Maybe Byrum Brown is playing???
Large:
Arkansas St. +8.5 Bowling Green has their best players in the portal, but supposedly they are all playing. Sounds nice, but do they play these guys all game, or give the young guys who will be around next year and get extra practices now, some serious playing time? Anyways, not sold on their QB Bazelak. Have watched him play and I can honestly say I don't see a pro future in the cards. Maybe his OL is poor, but he holds the ball too long, gets rid of it too quickly, takes unnecessary sacks, etc. Bowling Green seems to also play to the level of competition. Arkansas State somehow got to 7-5, but the Sun Belt is a tough conference to win in, and has done well in recent years in bowl games. They have a nice combination of backs and receivers, along with a pretty good dual threat QB. Their offensive numbers are somewhat altered by games with Iowa St, Michigan, and ULL. If BGU was a high powered offense, I'd worry. Game is in Mobile, AL so likely going to have a better crowd for the Wolves.
Small:
Toledo +7 Small because no one is sure if Holstein plays for Pitt. If he doesn't or gets injured again, Pitt is down to their walk on QB. Toledo certainly needs a good ending to their season. They have pretty good talent, a defense that kept them in games, but their offense really stalled at the end of the year. That's what bowl games are good for in this case. Pitt has struggled with lots of injuries, will miss their top WR, and Narduzzi has emphasized rest over extra practices. Holstein's leg injury of a month ago got him carted off, so hard to say if he'll play or be close to 100%..or 80%.
Large:
Arkansas St. +8.5 Bowling Green has their best players in the portal, but supposedly they are all playing. Sounds nice, but do they play these guys all game, or give the young guys who will be around next year and get extra practices now, some serious playing time? Anyways, not sold on their QB Bazelak. Have watched him play and I can honestly say I don't see a pro future in the cards. Maybe his OL is poor, but he holds the ball too long, gets rid of it too quickly, takes unnecessary sacks, etc. Bowling Green seems to also play to the level of competition. Arkansas State somehow got to 7-5, but the Sun Belt is a tough conference to win in, and has done well in recent years in bowl games. They have a nice combination of backs and receivers, along with a pretty good dual threat QB. Their offensive numbers are somewhat altered by games with Iowa St, Michigan, and ULL. If BGU was a high powered offense, I'd worry. Game is in Mobile, AL so likely going to have a better crowd for the Wolves.
Small:
Toledo +7 Small because no one is sure if Holstein plays for Pitt. If he doesn't or gets injured again, Pitt is down to their walk on QB. Toledo certainly needs a good ending to their season. They have pretty good talent, a defense that kept them in games, but their offense really stalled at the end of the year. That's what bowl games are good for in this case. Pitt has struggled with lots of injuries, will miss their top WR, and Narduzzi has emphasized rest over extra practices. Holstein's leg injury of a month ago got him carted off, so hard to say if he'll play or be close to 100%..or 80%.
Larger than usual, both plays:
Syracuse -17
Syracuse -9.5 1H (-117) Possibly overlooked here is that Syracuse got humiliated last bowl season by a mediocre USF team 45-0. Quite a few players are back from that team. Syracuse really had an outstanding year, only losing 3, and only one big loss to Pitt. Now they didn't win many by margins like this, but neither do a lot of bowl winners that win easily- like the 2023 USF team. WSU is decimated so much so by the portal that I'm surprised they are playing, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this line get to 20. Mateer was such a huge part of their offense, and might be the number 1 portal QB right now. Led the team in rushing and passing. They also lost their top rusher and there isn't much behind him. The defense was pretty lousy prior to the portal losses, and now it is going to be FCS level. Coaches are mostly gone. The QB for the Cougs will be Zevi Eckhaus, who played for a Bryant team that went 10-12 with him as starter in the CAA Conference, which is a pretty awful FCS conference- UMass Lowell was the top team (I know, who?). Syracuse has, I think, almost no opt outs for this game.
Syracuse -17
Syracuse -9.5 1H (-117) Possibly overlooked here is that Syracuse got humiliated last bowl season by a mediocre USF team 45-0. Quite a few players are back from that team. Syracuse really had an outstanding year, only losing 3, and only one big loss to Pitt. Now they didn't win many by margins like this, but neither do a lot of bowl winners that win easily- like the 2023 USF team. WSU is decimated so much so by the portal that I'm surprised they are playing, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this line get to 20. Mateer was such a huge part of their offense, and might be the number 1 portal QB right now. Led the team in rushing and passing. They also lost their top rusher and there isn't much behind him. The defense was pretty lousy prior to the portal losses, and now it is going to be FCS level. Coaches are mostly gone. The QB for the Cougs will be Zevi Eckhaus, who played for a Bryant team that went 10-12 with him as starter in the CAA Conference, which is a pretty awful FCS conference- UMass Lowell was the top team (I know, who?). Syracuse has, I think, almost no opt outs for this game.
Large:
Texas Tech +1 Arkansas is so damn depleted on offense..OL, WR, top RB- that only QB Taylen Green and the OTs (who came under much criticism this year) seem to be playing. The Hogs OL did play badly, and now they need to replace the top 2 centers, and the whole interior line. Poor players replaced by guys that couldn't beat them out of their job. Taylen Green is pretty inconsistent, but will likely be more so in this game. His best quality is that if he gets up to speed in the open field, he's fast. But not that quick side to side. Arkansas also missing key guys on defense. Rumor has it that Tech will have Tahj Brooks playing, but I think they'll win if he doesn't. The Tech backup QB Will Hammond, IMO, will prove to be instrumental here. Great demeanor, accuracy, mature and is mobile. Also, in bowls, a poor defensive team like Tech can play well enough to limit the opponent's offense. Yards, but not many scores. Besides, they didn't get to play many offenses like this one. Hogs coach Sam Pittman just had hip replacement, is desperately trying to fill the portal losses, and I just think this bowl is more of a tryout for next year's team.
Large, but not as large:
Navy +3.5 (-125) Oklahoma also very depleted offensively, a squad that struggled all season offensively. They also lose 2 of their top defenders to the NFL draft, and are opting out. Navy's triple option and Blake Horvath's passing ability will be key here. I also trust that Navy will have some surprises as they did vs. Army. Navy has thrived on turnovers, but sometimes turnovers have hurt them. If the Sooners had a dynamic passing offense, I'd lay off, but they don't. Hawkins, their true freshman QB is pretty raw. These lesser bowls just seem more important to the academies, and have won ATS more often than not.
Texas Tech +1 Arkansas is so damn depleted on offense..OL, WR, top RB- that only QB Taylen Green and the OTs (who came under much criticism this year) seem to be playing. The Hogs OL did play badly, and now they need to replace the top 2 centers, and the whole interior line. Poor players replaced by guys that couldn't beat them out of their job. Taylen Green is pretty inconsistent, but will likely be more so in this game. His best quality is that if he gets up to speed in the open field, he's fast. But not that quick side to side. Arkansas also missing key guys on defense. Rumor has it that Tech will have Tahj Brooks playing, but I think they'll win if he doesn't. The Tech backup QB Will Hammond, IMO, will prove to be instrumental here. Great demeanor, accuracy, mature and is mobile. Also, in bowls, a poor defensive team like Tech can play well enough to limit the opponent's offense. Yards, but not many scores. Besides, they didn't get to play many offenses like this one. Hogs coach Sam Pittman just had hip replacement, is desperately trying to fill the portal losses, and I just think this bowl is more of a tryout for next year's team.
Large, but not as large:
Navy +3.5 (-125) Oklahoma also very depleted offensively, a squad that struggled all season offensively. They also lose 2 of their top defenders to the NFL draft, and are opting out. Navy's triple option and Blake Horvath's passing ability will be key here. I also trust that Navy will have some surprises as they did vs. Army. Navy has thrived on turnovers, but sometimes turnovers have hurt them. If the Sooners had a dynamic passing offense, I'd lay off, but they don't. Hawkins, their true freshman QB is pretty raw. These lesser bowls just seem more important to the academies, and have won ATS more often than not.
Small:
USC +4 Lincoln Riley gets a lot of crap, and some of it is deserved. But despite the portal guys they lost, I think USC can get the win here. They have two of their top WRs remaining, two freshman RBs that also look like they will make a difference. And the defense is much improved from last year, and most of their best players are playing. They can tackle this year! USC had some close losses and some impressive wins. The Aggies loss of their best 3 DL could be more of a factor here. All 3 are NFL draft prospects. I think this bodes well for the USC offense. Marcel Reed is a somewhat raw passer, good runner. if he goes off for 100 yds. rushing, USC is in trouble. A buy low, contrarian pick, I guess.
USC +4 Lincoln Riley gets a lot of crap, and some of it is deserved. But despite the portal guys they lost, I think USC can get the win here. They have two of their top WRs remaining, two freshman RBs that also look like they will make a difference. And the defense is much improved from last year, and most of their best players are playing. They can tackle this year! USC had some close losses and some impressive wins. The Aggies loss of their best 3 DL could be more of a factor here. All 3 are NFL draft prospects. I think this bodes well for the USC offense. Marcel Reed is a somewhat raw passer, good runner. if he goes off for 100 yds. rushing, USC is in trouble. A buy low, contrarian pick, I guess.
Small:
UConn +3 (-120) For UConn, this is a huge game for their program. For UNC, it's a blah game in cold weather on a crummy baseball field. Should be a nice turnout of Huskies fans for the almost home team. UNC has one of the best dual RBs in the nation in Hampton, but his 2,000 yards won't be there. And their passing game was partly predicated on Hampton's abilities. UConn has a pretty good running game and run defense, which is always a big plus for bowl games.
Looking at Saturday's games.
UConn +3 (-120) For UConn, this is a huge game for their program. For UNC, it's a blah game in cold weather on a crummy baseball field. Should be a nice turnout of Huskies fans for the almost home team. UNC has one of the best dual RBs in the nation in Hampton, but his 2,000 yards won't be there. And their passing game was partly predicated on Hampton's abilities. UConn has a pretty good running game and run defense, which is always a big plus for bowl games.
Looking at Saturday's games.
