Small:
Minnesota -9 Minnesota has been very good in bowl games. And in fact they had an outstanding season after starting 2-3. A 1 point loss to PSU and a close loss at Rutgers, but 5 wins in last 7 games. The Gophers have a passing attack to go with a their run game. VT decimated by opt outs. Possibly 14 starters injured or opting out. Lost their stud RB, two of their better WRs and lots on defense. Fleck has won his last 5 bowl games. Then there's the Big 10 vs. the ACC, and we know who has shined, and who hasn't.
Minnesota -9 Minnesota has been very good in bowl games. And in fact they had an outstanding season after starting 2-3. A 1 point loss to PSU and a close loss at Rutgers, but 5 wins in last 7 games. The Gophers have a passing attack to go with a their run game. VT decimated by opt outs. Possibly 14 starters injured or opting out. Lost their stud RB, two of their better WRs and lots on defense. Fleck has won his last 5 bowl games. Then there's the Big 10 vs. the ACC, and we know who has shined, and who hasn't.
Small:
Montana St. -3 (-117) In a neutral setting, and I expect both teams will have a good turnout of fans. The Bobcats only have one disadvantage that I can see- Cam Miller is a better pure passer than Mellot. However, Montana St. has the better pass defense so that might be offset. Mellot also was #1 in passing efficiency in the FCS. The Bobcats have an outstanding run game, with an OL that can handle ND St. front 4. Some of the holes opened up by this OL have been large enough for a car to drive through. The Bisons have had a few games this year where their defense either gave up a lot in the air or on the ground. The Bobcats really haven't had one defensive letdown game. The closest was a 2 point win at UC Davis in which they did give up 300 yards passing, but held fast on the run game. Should be a great game.
Montana St. -3 (-117) In a neutral setting, and I expect both teams will have a good turnout of fans. The Bobcats only have one disadvantage that I can see- Cam Miller is a better pure passer than Mellot. However, Montana St. has the better pass defense so that might be offset. Mellot also was #1 in passing efficiency in the FCS. The Bobcats have an outstanding run game, with an OL that can handle ND St. front 4. Some of the holes opened up by this OL have been large enough for a car to drive through. The Bisons have had a few games this year where their defense either gave up a lot in the air or on the ground. The Bobcats really haven't had one defensive letdown game. The closest was a 2 point win at UC Davis in which they did give up 300 yards passing, but held fast on the run game. Should be a great game.
Montana St. at 5 in some places. Regular season was very profitable, the bowl season about a wash. Both of these large, and not just because I'm playing with house money.
Notre Dame/ PSU- under 45.5 (-117) Having a hard time taking a side here, but the under seems to be a solid play. 6 TDs and a FG, plus 1/2 point. This game has the feel of a close game, a game in which FGs and field position matter. In seconds per play this season, ND was 113th, and rarely goes tempo. PSU was 89th and occasionally does go tempo. ND really counts on their run game, as they should, but Jeremyiah Love's knee was in a brace yesterday at practice. He'll play, but likely less than 100%(or 80%?). His backup, Price, is good, but Love is special. Then there is ND's downfield passing game, which is not used much or effectively vs. good Ds. Riley Leonard is a good open field runner, can escape the pocket, but I wouldn't consider him quick or elusive. As a passer, mediocre. Abdul Carter is likely playing for PSU, but might have a club on his injured arm. Notre Dame has been limited offensively in the Georgia game, at times vs. Indiana (the 98 yard run helped a lot), A&M and NIU. Many of their other games were vs. terrible defenses.
PSU's WRs have had difficulty getting separation all season. Tyler Warren is their main guy, but ND has the safeties that can cover him and tackle him. ND is excellent in man coverage and I think they'll be able to put 6 or 7 in the box to limit the PSU run game. ND has also been very good at disguising their blitzes and stunting. Good chance that each offense still runs the ball on 3rd downs and medium. Allar might have a good game, but still only throw for 150 yards.
Notre Dame/ PSU- under 45.5 (-117) Having a hard time taking a side here, but the under seems to be a solid play. 6 TDs and a FG, plus 1/2 point. This game has the feel of a close game, a game in which FGs and field position matter. In seconds per play this season, ND was 113th, and rarely goes tempo. PSU was 89th and occasionally does go tempo. ND really counts on their run game, as they should, but Jeremyiah Love's knee was in a brace yesterday at practice. He'll play, but likely less than 100%(or 80%?). His backup, Price, is good, but Love is special. Then there is ND's downfield passing game, which is not used much or effectively vs. good Ds. Riley Leonard is a good open field runner, can escape the pocket, but I wouldn't consider him quick or elusive. As a passer, mediocre. Abdul Carter is likely playing for PSU, but might have a club on his injured arm. Notre Dame has been limited offensively in the Georgia game, at times vs. Indiana (the 98 yard run helped a lot), A&M and NIU. Many of their other games were vs. terrible defenses.
PSU's WRs have had difficulty getting separation all season. Tyler Warren is their main guy, but ND has the safeties that can cover him and tackle him. ND is excellent in man coverage and I think they'll be able to put 6 or 7 in the box to limit the PSU run game. ND has also been very good at disguising their blitzes and stunting. Good chance that each offense still runs the ball on 3rd downs and medium. Allar might have a good game, but still only throw for 150 yards.
The other Large:
Ohio State -5.5 (-109) That Michigan loss might be the reason OSU wins the title. And after watching the depleted UM defense dismantle Alabama, maybe that loss wasn't as bad as earlier thought to be. The Texas defense won't fold like Oregon did. They'll show up and it'll be more of a challenge than OSU's earlier contests. Or is OSU's offense just at another level now in the playoffs? Chip Kelly is calling plays and is doing a damn good job at it....and the Buckeyes have so many weapons to do it with. Even the OL is playing better. Will Howard has had a clean pocket for both games. And Howard's accuracy has been remarkable. But OSU's defense has played lights out too. Oregon got some scores after being down 34-0, but it felt like they were getting lucky on 4th downs, and OSU was playing a bit of prevent. Tennessee only got 1 TD that really mattered.
Quinn Ewers has been a very good QB when he is not under pressure. I don't think ASU or Clemson applied as much pressure as Ohio State will. I imagine OSU will be studying those Georgia games and figure out how to make Ewers uncomfortable. A turnover or 2 by Ewers could decide this game. Texas should get back their RT for the game, but at what level? I can see a close game, either side winning, or an OSU win by 2 or more TDs. The Big 10 has been better in these bowl games than the SEC.
Ohio State -5.5 (-109) That Michigan loss might be the reason OSU wins the title. And after watching the depleted UM defense dismantle Alabama, maybe that loss wasn't as bad as earlier thought to be. The Texas defense won't fold like Oregon did. They'll show up and it'll be more of a challenge than OSU's earlier contests. Or is OSU's offense just at another level now in the playoffs? Chip Kelly is calling plays and is doing a damn good job at it....and the Buckeyes have so many weapons to do it with. Even the OL is playing better. Will Howard has had a clean pocket for both games. And Howard's accuracy has been remarkable. But OSU's defense has played lights out too. Oregon got some scores after being down 34-0, but it felt like they were getting lucky on 4th downs, and OSU was playing a bit of prevent. Tennessee only got 1 TD that really mattered.
Quinn Ewers has been a very good QB when he is not under pressure. I don't think ASU or Clemson applied as much pressure as Ohio State will. I imagine OSU will be studying those Georgia games and figure out how to make Ewers uncomfortable. A turnover or 2 by Ewers could decide this game. Texas should get back their RT for the game, but at what level? I can see a close game, either side winning, or an OSU win by 2 or more TDs. The Big 10 has been better in these bowl games than the SEC.
Fred, you're probably right. And I agree with your assessment. However, the world will be on OSU, and you know how that usually turns out. Thing is, Texas hasn't played a full game yet this year to their capability.
If somehow the light goes on with Sark and he really does let it rip with "all gas, no brakes", Texas will win this game. He has to get Manning involved in the game. Has to. Also, this will be the best defense that OSU has faced this season. OSU should win this game, but it's not a gimme, like most people are making it out to be.
If somehow the light goes on with Sark and he really does let it rip with "all gas, no brakes", Texas will win this game. He has to get Manning involved in the game. Has to. Also, this will be the best defense that OSU has faced this season. OSU should win this game, but it's not a gimme, like most people are making it out to be.
The world being on OSU was a source of my hesitancy to bet on them. The books probably win about 55-60% of these lopsided betting splits. However, I've watched both games by these two. Texas just hasn't played a full game. Against ASU, they got out to that 14-3 so quickly, and then scored 3 points total in the next 2 quarters. ASU's defense was slower and smaller. And in the Clemson game, they again played an inferior defense but couldn't put the game away until about a minute left. Texas might win if they play a complete game, but that's a big IF. OSU could be a little too confident, so there's that...
