Large:
Miami/ Iowa St.- over 58 Iowa State and Miami have all or almost all of their offensive firepower here. The perception of ISU being a good D team is partly based on their defensive stats from their first 4 games...North Dakota, Houston, Iowa and Arkansas State. After that, they were middle of the pack in the Big 12. Miami also has issues with their pass defense. And based on most of these bowl games going over, and sometimes by a lot, maybe OCs have the extra time scheming and freshman have the extra practice time to contribute....and defensively, the extra time doesn't change much for each team. Both teams can run the ball pretty well, along with QBs that are actual strong dual threats. Although Cam Ward, with his draft status, might not run much.
Army -7 1H (-128) Sure glad I waited on this one. I guess the line dropped because Army's top RB is opting out and transferring? Either way, La. Tech has quite a few defensive starters opting out and in the portal, and that WAS one of their strengths. It certainly wasn't their awful run game on offense. Their freshman QB, Bullock, is decent, but has a porous OL, and gets sacked quite a bit. I just don't think LT will be prepared for the Army offense. They haven't faced an offense like this, and with many D players not playing, the younger guys will be hard pressed to defend Army.
Miami/ Iowa St.- over 58 Iowa State and Miami have all or almost all of their offensive firepower here. The perception of ISU being a good D team is partly based on their defensive stats from their first 4 games...North Dakota, Houston, Iowa and Arkansas State. After that, they were middle of the pack in the Big 12. Miami also has issues with their pass defense. And based on most of these bowl games going over, and sometimes by a lot, maybe OCs have the extra time scheming and freshman have the extra practice time to contribute....and defensively, the extra time doesn't change much for each team. Both teams can run the ball pretty well, along with QBs that are actual strong dual threats. Although Cam Ward, with his draft status, might not run much.
Army -7 1H (-128) Sure glad I waited on this one. I guess the line dropped because Army's top RB is opting out and transferring? Either way, La. Tech has quite a few defensive starters opting out and in the portal, and that WAS one of their strengths. It certainly wasn't their awful run game on offense. Their freshman QB, Bullock, is decent, but has a porous OL, and gets sacked quite a bit. I just don't think LT will be prepared for the Army offense. They haven't faced an offense like this, and with many D players not playing, the younger guys will be hard pressed to defend Army.
The Tech defense is as bad as advertised. Considering how many Ark. offensive players are out, an embarrassment.
Small:
BC +4 Both teams have some opt outs. Nebraska has had trouble scoring all season, while BC under Grayson James went 4-1 and looked much better than under the inconsistent Castellanos. BC also played pretty well defensively in the offensive minded ACC. It's in Yankee Stadium , with new turf put down, early game, and cool weather. Bill O'Brien has done a commendable job at BC, a program that was really faltering. On the other hand, Matt Rhule has really coached some pretty bad offenses, and his bowl record is 1-3.
Small:
BC +4 Both teams have some opt outs. Nebraska has had trouble scoring all season, while BC under Grayson James went 4-1 and looked much better than under the inconsistent Castellanos. BC also played pretty well defensively in the offensive minded ACC. It's in Yankee Stadium , with new turf put down, early game, and cool weather. Bill O'Brien has done a commendable job at BC, a program that was really faltering. On the other hand, Matt Rhule has really coached some pretty bad offenses, and his bowl record is 1-3.
That line sat at 16-16.5 for a few days, and we all should have jumped on it. Hope you got the 1H win.
Small:
NC State -7 I think NC State will have a number of players that can run the ball, including their QB, and will break off some big gains that way. ECU lost more in the portal, and had less talent to lose. NC St. coach, Dave Doeren, seems to be putting much importance on this game.
Small:
NC State -7 I think NC State will have a number of players that can run the ball, including their QB, and will break off some big gains that way. ECU lost more in the portal, and had less talent to lose. NC St. coach, Dave Doeren, seems to be putting much importance on this game.
The ISU-Miami total over by half.
Lean for Monday:
Iowa +3 (-120) The great majority of bets and money on Missouri, but the line is mostly at 2.5. The one great thing in this game is the Iowa pass defense. Missouri missing top 3 out of 4 WRs, and especially Burden's loss will hurt. A turnover could decide the winner so keeping less than small.
Lean for Monday:
Iowa +3 (-120) The great majority of bets and money on Missouri, but the line is mostly at 2.5. The one great thing in this game is the Iowa pass defense. Missouri missing top 3 out of 4 WRs, and especially Burden's loss will hurt. A turnover could decide the winner so keeping less than small.
Large:
Alabama -13 (-115) Larger favorites, say 7.5 or better, have done well so far this bowl season. Forget the Michigan on the uniform for this game, this is a team really down some key players. The Michigan DTs were crucial in their competing vs. Ohio State and Indiana, one of which will go 1st round, one in the 2nd in the NFL draft. And a later pick at DE. This and a couple other defensive players made Michigan competitive , where their offense couldn't get by on a decent run game. Well... their best RBs are also opting out. UM will likely have some decent younger talent to keep this game from getting ridiculous, but at QB and the playmaker spots, they are in trouble. Alabama is mostly intact, and would like to get some revenge for losing in the semi-finals last season in the NC playoffs. Besides, Michigan got their BIG win beating OSU. And Alabama has the motivational edge.
Small:
Alabama -7 (-114) Should be large maybe, but Bama will wear them down possibly 2H.
Alabama -13 (-115) Larger favorites, say 7.5 or better, have done well so far this bowl season. Forget the Michigan on the uniform for this game, this is a team really down some key players. The Michigan DTs were crucial in their competing vs. Ohio State and Indiana, one of which will go 1st round, one in the 2nd in the NFL draft. And a later pick at DE. This and a couple other defensive players made Michigan competitive , where their offense couldn't get by on a decent run game. Well... their best RBs are also opting out. UM will likely have some decent younger talent to keep this game from getting ridiculous, but at QB and the playmaker spots, they are in trouble. Alabama is mostly intact, and would like to get some revenge for losing in the semi-finals last season in the NC playoffs. Besides, Michigan got their BIG win beating OSU. And Alabama has the motivational edge.
Small:
Alabama -7 (-114) Should be large maybe, but Bama will wear them down possibly 2H.
Large:
LSU/ Baylor- Over 58.5 (-115) Lot of scoring in the bowl games so far, even for teams you wouldn't expect it from. This game is indoors with 2 QBs that can really sling it. The fun part of the bowls for OCs is that they can throw the whole kitchen sink at it. The game is not meaningless, but coaches want to let their offenses open it up and that usually means more downfield passes. More going for it on 4th down and punting less. Baylor isn't bad against the run, but their pass defense is porous. LSU does have some issues on the OL, but I think they'll have enough playmakers to take advantage of Baylor's D. Nussmeier has a number of games throwing it 35-50 times, which means more clock stoppage. LSU's secondary has also struggled at times, and will miss their starting safety who is off to the NFL. Baylor's offense also uses tempo and QB Sawyer Robertson gets the ball out quickly...and adds a nice running dimension.
LSU/ Baylor- Over 58.5 (-115) Lot of scoring in the bowl games so far, even for teams you wouldn't expect it from. This game is indoors with 2 QBs that can really sling it. The fun part of the bowls for OCs is that they can throw the whole kitchen sink at it. The game is not meaningless, but coaches want to let their offenses open it up and that usually means more downfield passes. More going for it on 4th down and punting less. Baylor isn't bad against the run, but their pass defense is porous. LSU does have some issues on the OL, but I think they'll have enough playmakers to take advantage of Baylor's D. Nussmeier has a number of games throwing it 35-50 times, which means more clock stoppage. LSU's secondary has also struggled at times, and will miss their starting safety who is off to the NFL. Baylor's offense also uses tempo and QB Sawyer Robertson gets the ball out quickly...and adds a nice running dimension.
Small:
Louisville -2.5 Yes, Louisville is missing their QB and top WR and a key defender. But I think the players that are playing should be enough to beat a Husky team that was lucky to be 6-6. UL's RBs, Brown and Watson, average 7.3 and 9 yds. per carry, on more than 200 carries. I also think they have two WRs that'll keep the passing game successful. The question is whether senior QB Harrison Bailey can deliver. Once a high recruit, he never got on the field for an extended period. Yet, with his experience, 2 years with Brohm, with decent accuracy, and an OL that only gave up 15 sacks and run-blocked really well, UL should do well vs. a Husky DL that is depleted and wasn't all that good in the 1st place. UW also had a completely new OL this season, two starters are in the portal, and their young (and short) QB will be under plenty of pressure. UL likes to blitz a lot from all 3 levels. Experienced QBs with good arms took advantage of this at times, but I doubt Demond Williams will. The Huskies do have a very good RB also in Coleman, and along with Williams, they will run quite a bit. UW seemed to only play well at home, and really looked pretty bad in road games.
Louisville -2.5 Yes, Louisville is missing their QB and top WR and a key defender. But I think the players that are playing should be enough to beat a Husky team that was lucky to be 6-6. UL's RBs, Brown and Watson, average 7.3 and 9 yds. per carry, on more than 200 carries. I also think they have two WRs that'll keep the passing game successful. The question is whether senior QB Harrison Bailey can deliver. Once a high recruit, he never got on the field for an extended period. Yet, with his experience, 2 years with Brohm, with decent accuracy, and an OL that only gave up 15 sacks and run-blocked really well, UL should do well vs. a Husky DL that is depleted and wasn't all that good in the 1st place. UW also had a completely new OL this season, two starters are in the portal, and their young (and short) QB will be under plenty of pressure. UL likes to blitz a lot from all 3 levels. Experienced QBs with good arms took advantage of this at times, but I doubt Demond Williams will. The Huskies do have a very good RB also in Coleman, and along with Williams, they will run quite a bit. UW seemed to only play well at home, and really looked pretty bad in road games.
On the Bama game: They also have no key players opting out, while Michigan has all of their NFL prospects opting out. Doesn't that say something about the team culture of each? Alabama also one of the teams that barely missed the playoffs. A thrashing of Michigan will help end the season on a better note.
Small:
Boise State +11 Just feeling it on this one. PSU really crushed SMU, but that was at home in winter conditions, and Kevin Jennings looked completely out of his element. I think that's a major reason SMU got beaten so badly. I'm not playing this based on Franklin's poor record in big games, but I'd hate to be in his shoes if he loses. You also have to look past a team's most recent game. PSU lost twice, was 6-7 ATS, and their offense hasn't always clicked. Boise is a funny team. They went into Oregon to win and came within a whisker of doing that. I think they'll have that mentality here, while maybe PSU being favored by so much will play to NOT lose. Their QB is only 5'10", but he's a gamer that rarely gets sacked, and is pretty accurate. He can also scramble and run well. Jeanty will have to have a pretty big game, but he is rested.
Boise State +11 Just feeling it on this one. PSU really crushed SMU, but that was at home in winter conditions, and Kevin Jennings looked completely out of his element. I think that's a major reason SMU got beaten so badly. I'm not playing this based on Franklin's poor record in big games, but I'd hate to be in his shoes if he loses. You also have to look past a team's most recent game. PSU lost twice, was 6-7 ATS, and their offense hasn't always clicked. Boise is a funny team. They went into Oregon to win and came within a whisker of doing that. I think they'll have that mentality here, while maybe PSU being favored by so much will play to NOT lose. Their QB is only 5'10", but he's a gamer that rarely gets sacked, and is pretty accurate. He can also scramble and run well. Jeanty will have to have a pretty big game, but he is rested.
Iowa and Missouri total was what 40.5, and they are already at 28 early 2nd quarter. The earlier bowls influenced this next LARGE play:
Ohio State/ Oregon- Over 54 (-126) Paying the extra juice to get to 54 from 55.5. A little paranoid after seeing some games in which that 1/2 or 1 point makes all the difference. The Syracuse game, for example. Though both teams do have very good defenses, I think usually offenses win out in these kinds of matchups. Two senior QBs that can rise to the occasion with great skill sets, loaded with playmakers. Both teams should really be able to game plan well since they have smart OCs, options to run or pass, and extra time to prep and practice. Nice weather, and a grass turf that is considered fast and firm. In their earlier game, 63 points and about 970 yards of offense.
Large also:
Georgia -1 Hard to say what exactly Stockton will do for Georgia. I'm thinking he'll give them more mobility and running options than Beck, but is definitely not the accurate passer. The bigger question is how he'll do in a big game atmosphere. Seems to be a competitor with confidence, liked by teammates and has a strong work ethic....but a lot of college QBs probably fit that bill. What I do like is that Georgia beat Texas twice, and in both games really held their offense in check. Georgia will also have Ettienne back in much better health. In the grueling regular season, they had their bumps, but there are a lot of players, going back 2 years, that have been in huge games like this. ND looked good vs. Indiana, but that early int. by Rourke (who the hell was he throwing to?), and 98 yard run set the tone. Indiana's offense struggled then and vs. UM to run or pass block. If Riley Leonard has an outstanding game passing then ND can win, but I'm betting against it.
Ohio State/ Oregon- Over 54 (-126) Paying the extra juice to get to 54 from 55.5. A little paranoid after seeing some games in which that 1/2 or 1 point makes all the difference. The Syracuse game, for example. Though both teams do have very good defenses, I think usually offenses win out in these kinds of matchups. Two senior QBs that can rise to the occasion with great skill sets, loaded with playmakers. Both teams should really be able to game plan well since they have smart OCs, options to run or pass, and extra time to prep and practice. Nice weather, and a grass turf that is considered fast and firm. In their earlier game, 63 points and about 970 yards of offense.
Large also:
Georgia -1 Hard to say what exactly Stockton will do for Georgia. I'm thinking he'll give them more mobility and running options than Beck, but is definitely not the accurate passer. The bigger question is how he'll do in a big game atmosphere. Seems to be a competitor with confidence, liked by teammates and has a strong work ethic....but a lot of college QBs probably fit that bill. What I do like is that Georgia beat Texas twice, and in both games really held their offense in check. Georgia will also have Ettienne back in much better health. In the grueling regular season, they had their bumps, but there are a lot of players, going back 2 years, that have been in huge games like this. ND looked good vs. Indiana, but that early int. by Rourke (who the hell was he throwing to?), and 98 yard run set the tone. Indiana's offense struggled then and vs. UM to run or pass block. If Riley Leonard has an outstanding game passing then ND can win, but I'm betting against it.
