Preliminary Predictions
from Kamikaze Overdrive
135lbs- #8 Cody Garbrandt (9-0-0) vs #11 Takeya Mizugaki (21-9-2)
In the headlining act of the prelims, surging ‘No Love’ Cody Garbrandt takes on battle tested veteran Takeya Mizugaki in the Bantamweight division. Garbrandt is still undefeated after a definitive victory over fellow prospect Thomas Almeida, he’s is 4-0 inside the Octagon. Mizugaki is coming off of a decision win over George Roop after suffering back to back losses to Aljamain Sterling and Dominick Cruz.
The American is an inch taller, but will give up 3 inches of reach. Cody is the younger man by 8-years.
Mizugaki has fought the best of the best during his MMA run and has proven to be a tough out for just about anyone in the division. He presents a crisp boxing attacked coupled with decent wrestling. Over his combined UFC/WEC career, he has averaged 3.35 significant strikes per minute. Takeya has just 5 knockout wins, but he has some pop in hands. He showed that power when he dropped Francisco Rivera during an early exchange of their fight. He throws nice short hooks and will move into close range, where he will also attack in the clinch. The 32-year old has been knocked out twice in his career, but has a pretty decent chin. The bigger concern is his willingness to absorb strikes. Getting hit almost as often as he hits his opponent, Mizugaki has trouble distancing over 15-minutes himself based solely on his striking. While his wrestling numbers aren’t overwhelming, he is capable of landing key completions. During his recent 5-fight winning streak, Mizugaki completed 9 takedowns. Look for him to score the majority of his attempts in the clinch along the cage. His defensive numbers can be a little misleading as well. While he has defended 70% of his opponents TDAs, over his last 6 fights prior to the Roop victory he gave up 15 takedowns.
Over his long career, Mizugaki has fought 4 different UFC/WEC champions- losing all 4 contests.
Coming off a massive victory over another highly touted prospect, Garbrandt has his sights set on a shot at the Bantamweight title. Cody added to his growing list of knockouts, having stopped 8 of his 9 opponents- 6 in the first round. He comes from an amateur boxing background; showcasing quick hands and decent head movement. He has power from both sides, rocking Almeida with a left hook and finishing him with a crushing right hand shortly afterward. He will pump out a jab and mix in an uppercut, opting to use it as a counter strike if his opponent gets too aggressive. Cody will throw some kicks to augment his boxing, attacking both the legs and head of his foe. He does have a tendency to open up when pursuing and will get hit with some big strikes as a result. Despite training out of a strong wrestling camp in Team Alpha Male, Garbrandt primarily uses his wrestling defensively. He did land 4 takedowns on 7 attempts during his first 2 UFC bouts, but his mat game is a secondary aspect of his offense.
After totaling a little over 18-minutes of cage time over his first 5 pro contests, Garbrandt fell just 10 seconds short a full 6-rounds of action in his first 2 UFC appearances.
Garbrandt has made it very apparent that he feels he will be facing Dominick Cruz in the not too distance future. While he has looked impressive since entering the Octagon, Mizugaki represents a very stiff challenge not to be taken lightly. That being said, it would appear that what Mizugaki does well, Cody does better. Garbrandt has the power advantage and should be the quicker fighter. Mizugaki’s tendency to sit in the pocket and exchange will make it difficult for him to win the striking battles as Cody darts in and out, landing more often and more powerful strikes. The stout TDD of ‘No Love’ will stop Mizugaki from landing key takedowns that he has relied on in the previous close fights. Look for Garbrandt to sit just out range before moving in to land quick combos and big single strikes. Once Takeya starts to push forward to get into his range Cody will find success with his counter strikes and wrestling
my prediction is Cody Garbrandt to defeat Takeya Mizugaki by decision
135lbs- #8 Raquel Pennington (7-5-0) vs Elizabeth Phillips (5-3-0)
In the Women’s Bantamweight division, top 10 ranked Raquel ‘Rocky’ Pennington makes her seventh UFC appearance when she takes on the hardnosed Elizabeth Phillips. Pennington is coming off of a decision win over Bethe Correia adding to a pair of submission victories against Jessica Andrade and Ashlee Evans-Smith to improve to 3-1 in her last 4 fights. Phillips snapped a 2-fight losing skid by defeating Jessamyn Duke, one fight prior she lost a controversial decision to Milana Dudieva.
Phillips has been on the shelf for over 13-months and has fought just twice over the last 2 years. Pennington in an inch taller and will have a 2″ reach advantage along with being the younger fighter by 2 years.
After a pair of close decision losses, Phillips left no doubt against Duke getting the better of the striking exchanges by a total of 49 to 36 and controlling the majority of the action on the mat over the opening 2 rounds. That being said, a late rally from Jessamyn nearly stole the fight. Phillips came out very tired in the final frame and endured a steady diet of clinch and ground strikes accompanied by multiple submission attempts including a close armbar cut short by the bell. Phillips has decent power, finishing a pair of opponents early in her career. She found success on the feet damaging Valarie Letourneau’s eye, but was unable to match her pace. She is an aggressive striker and packs some decent power in her right hand. Against Duke, she was landing from the right side with regularity, but when she threw more than just single strikes it came in the form of far less accurate flailing flurries. Elizabeth seems to have issues managing her energy, and her aggressive style makes it difficult for her to maintain her pace for the entire fight. Offensively, she has decent takedowns and can do a lot of damage from top position. But her defensive work is a point of vulnerability. She had issues getting put on his back and Duke attacked with a number of submission attempts and sweeps.
The victory over Duke avenged an amateur loss by submission earlier in Phillips career to the former Ultimate Fighter competitor.
Pennington carries an incredibly deceptive record, considering the quality of opposition she has faced. Over her combined UFC and Invicta career, she took on a trio of opponents who have fought for the UFC strap, including pushing former Champion Holly Holm to a split decision. At 4.31 SLpM, Pennington works hard to maintain a steady striking output, connecting on 75+ strikes on 3 separate occasions. In addition to her volume, Pennington uses strong footwork while landing a stiff left jab and long straight right. ‘Rocky’ found a lot of success when closing the distance against Holm and applying pressure. She is very effective at moving into range to attack and then drifting to the outside to avoid her opponent’s offense. Once on the inside, Raquel will clinch up and land short knees and elbows on the inside. The Colorado native isn’t an overwhelming wrestler, but she has developed a strong grappling game. In addition to tapping out Evans-Smith and Andrade, she scored a TUF tournament submission of current Invicta Bantamweight champion Tonya Evinger.
Pennington has landed 7 takedowns inside the Octagon at a 35% completion rate compared to 9 given up, with a 65% TDD.
The layoff and relative inactivity for Phillips is concerning, but it could also lead to improvements for a fighter still early in her MMA career. Phillips has power and will engage both on the feet and the mat, but she struggles to maintain her pace as the fight progresses. Conversely, Pennington is much more consistent in her offensive attack and has shown the ability to get stronger in longer fights. ‘Rocky’ is the more technical striker, but needs to avoid getting drawn into wild exchanges against an opponent that has some decent pop in her hands. Look for Pennington to routinely avoid the majority of Phillips offense, slipping out of range after the initial entanglement. The lack of success that Phillips will have at distance, will force her to close the gap and look for takedowns. Raquel will counter with her clinch to control and bust up Phillips along the cage. As the fight progresses, Pennington will find her way to top position against an exhausted opponent and capitalize on her defensive lapses
my prediction is Raquel Pennington to defeat Elizabeth Phillips by submission.
145lbs- Artem Lobov (12-12-1 1NC) vs Chris Avila (5-2-0)
In a precursor to the main event, Conor McGregor training partner Artem ‘The Russian Hammer’ Lobov will faceoff with Cesar Gracie Fight Team member Chris Avila in the Featherweight division. Lobov could be fighting for his roster spot after back to back defeats to start his UFC run. Avila has won 3 in a row and 5 of his last 6 after falling in his professional debut.
Avila is an inch taller, but will have a sizeable 7″ reach advantage. Lobov is the older man by 7-years and has 18 more pro bouts.
After getting bounced in his initial TUF fight, Lobov got a second chance and his knockout power carried him to the tournament finals. Unfortunately, the Russian-born Irishman’s success ended there. Despite his trio of knockouts on the show, he has just 4 strike-based stoppages over his 25 pro fights. He is a very unorthodox striker, utilizing a vertical stance and routinely hanging his hands. Pawing with his right hand, he throws a hard straight left and uppercut, he will target the body, and periodically attacks with leg kicks. When Lobov found success on the show, he was able to move forward, maintain constant pressure, and attack once his opponent’s back was pinned on the cage. Against White, he was badly out-landed with just 23-significant strikes compared to 78 from his foe. In his debut, Lobov’s output was almost non-existent as he spent the majority of the fight fending off the grappling attack of his foe.
Clearly a product of his style, Lobov is 5-9 in decisions, with a 1-5-1 record in his last 7 fights to go to the scorecards.
Avila comes into the UFC with a limited pro record. He did make a single appearance under the WSOF banner, dropping a decision. His record is devoid of any big name competition, with his last 3 wins coming over a trio of fighters with a combined 9-8 record. Avila has 3 wins by knockout, a single submission victory, and 1-2 record on the scorecards. Watching Avila fight, there appears to be snippets of the Diaz striking style incorporated into his game. When he isn’t leading the exchanges, he has some decent counter striking, but he is far more effective when he attacks first. The California native has had issues in previous fights against aggressive pressure striker, allowing them to dictate the pace and back him up. His wrestling attack is a little under-developed with his takedowns coming as the result of power over technique.
Avila has just a single opening round finish, with the rest of his stoppage wins coming early in the middle frame.
There should be a certain level of tension and hostility surrounding this fight, as both will want to get the night off to a strong start for their team heading into the main event. Lobov has looked underwhelming at best in each of his UFC outings. It is hard not to argue that his association with the Featherweight champion has probably kept him employed. Similarily, Avila’s connection to the Diaz Brothers played a big role in his call-up to the UFC as he hasn’t been that impressive on regional circuit. Lobov has a sizeable experience advantage and that should show up here. Artem thrives when he can be the aggressor and push his opponent backward. Despite the sizeable reach advantage, look for Artem to walk through the strikes of Avila, punish him at close range, and eventually overwhelm him
my prediction is Artem Lobov to defeat Chris Avila by knockout
115lbs- #13 Randa Markos (6-4-0) vs Cortney Casey (5-3-0)
In the Women’s Strawweight division, Canada’s Randa ‘Quiet Storm’ Markos squares off with ‘Cast Iron’ Cortney Casey. Markos improved to 2-2 in the UFC, with a strong decision win over Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger- she also holds a victory over Aisling Daly. Casey is coming off of her first Octagon victory, obliterating Cristina Stanciu after falling to Seo Hee Ham and Jo Jo Calderwood both by decision.
At 5’7″, Casey is 3 inches taller than her Canadian counterpart and will have a 4″ reach advantage. Casey is also the younger fighter by 2 years.
Casey’s win over Stanciu was her third victory to come by TKO adding to a pair of submission wins, all inside the opening round. Conversely, she is 0-3 in fights to go beyond the first 5-minutes. Cortney has shown herself to be a very fast starter, but she has struggled to maintain her output as her fights progress. In her opening rounds against Ham and Calderwood, she compiled a total of 61-significant strikes compared to 26 landed by her opponents. In rounds 2 and 3, she dropped to an average of just 18.5 connections per round while her foes increased their average output to a lofty 33.75 strikes per 5-minutes. Despite the noteworthy statistical disparities, Casey has shown marked improvement in her technique. She has decent power, mixes in her kicks, and throws straight punches while backing down her opponent. Against Stanciu, she landed several hard right hands as the centerpiece of multi-punch combos. After the early exchanges, Casey secured a pair of well-executed trip takedowns and move directly to mount. She finished her foe with hard elbows after the second completion. ‘Cast Iron’ gave up a trio of takedowns on just 4 attempts against Calderwood in her debut.
Despite dropping her first 2 trips to the Octagon, Casey was rewarded with Fight of the Night bonuses in each fight.
Markos has leaned heavily on her ground game both in and outside the Octagon. All 3 of her finishes have come by submission in addition to tapping Felice Herrig on the Ultimate Fighter. She has completed at least 1 takedown in each of her 4 UFC bouts, while defending 50% of her opponents’ tries. In her last fight, Markos got put on her back late in round 1, but attacked with a leg lock and eventually swept to top position to land some solid ground and pound. In her loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz, she struggled to find consistency with her grappling- completing just a single takedown on 9 attempts. When she did get her to the mat, Randa found success moving to her back and controlled the position well. Look for Markos to walk her opponent down and if she doesn’t shoot for a takedown, she is quite capable of working her dirty boxing in the clinch. ‘Quiet Storm’ has been rounding out her striking repertoire. Prior to her last fight, she appeared to rely too much on throwing her power right hand. The frequency and lack of variety resulted in her becoming predictable. Against Lybarger, she utilized a strong left jab to set up her right power, but as the fight progressed she reverted back to power over technique.
Markos did miss weight in her last bout and has appeared to slow down in more demanding fights, but was still willing to push forward and engage.
This should be a gritty fight with the real possibility of earning some post-fight bonus money. Markos has a tendency to eat strikes in an attempt to maintain constant pressure and wear down her opponent in the process. Casey has decent power and could find success landing early as the Canadian willingly engages her at close range. Markos needs to remain technical and diverse in this fight. Set up her strikes with her jab, but also keep the threat of the takedown a constant in the mind of Casey. Cortney has some issue with her TDD and even if she is able to defend the early attempts, it will take a toll on her cardio. Look for a closely contested opening round, but Markos will push forward and engage Casey along the cage and put her on the mat. As the fight moves into the second half, Randa should start to land the higher quantity on the feet and score more consistently with her grappling
my prediction is Randa Markos to defeat Cortney Casey by decision.
170lbs- #7 Neil Magny (18-5-0) vs Lorenz Larkin (17-5-0 1NC)
In the Fight Pass main event, Neil Magny puts his Top 10 spot on the line against Strikeforce alumni Lorenz ‘The Monsoon’ Larkin in the Welterweight division. Magny is coming off a huge win over Hector Lombard and has suffered just a single defeat over his last 11 fights. Larkin rebounded from his first loss at 170-pounds with a split decision win over Jorge Masvidal- he is now 3-1 as a Welterweight.
Magny is 4 inches taller than Larkin and will have an impressive 8″ reach advantage. Magny is 1 year younger than Lorenz, who is replacing Dong Hyun Kim on just over 1-month’s notice.
Rising from the ashes of one of the worst TUF season of all time, Magny has gone from the brink of unemployment to the cusp of a title shot. During his current surge, Neil has shown massive improvements in his striking attack. He uses his length defensively, limiting his opponents to just 1.93 SLpM. Magny’s last fight against Lombard did inflate that number; Neil gave up 60 strikes against- the most during his UFC run. He also landed an Octagon personal-best 148 significant connections in just under 11-minutes against Lombard. While Magny has put up a solid defensive front, some big shots have slipped through. Lombard nearly finished him and Hyun Gyu Lim also had him in serious trouble early in their fight. Offensively, look for him to attack with long straight punches on the outside before closing the distance to land knees and short elbows in the clinch. In addition to his improved striking, Magny has upped his wrestling capability. In his wins over Erick Silva and Kelvin Gastelum, he landed a combined 10 takedowns. He has a solid top game, controlling his opponent while landing strikes in transition. Magny does have 3 submission losses on his record, including a pair against elite grapplers in Demian Maia and Sergio Moraes.
During his TUF tournament run, Magny won his first 3 bouts before getting knocked out in the semi-finals by Mike Ricci. He defeated fellow semi-finalist Jon Manley in an unofficial TUF Bronze medal bout that earned him a UFC roster spot.
Since cutting to Welterweight, Larkin has looked impressive. He stopped both John Howard and Santiago Ponzinibbio, pushing his knockout total to 10. A dangerous kickboxing based-striker, Lorenz will use a left jab to set up a hard right hook or lead with a hook from the left side. He offers a wide-variety of kicking techniques; utilizing a stiff push kick and hard low kicks along with a number of bigger offensive weapons. In his fights with Ponzinibbio and Albert Tumenov, Larkin landed some brutal leg kicks that clearly compromised the movement of his opponents. Larkin is a bit of a slow started, but once he kicks it into gear he is very fast when closing the distance and engaging. He does jump into his strikes to magnify their impact, but it also opens him up to counter strikes. That being said, he is so fast it is hard to time him. He did suffer a knockout at Middleweight and has been buzzed on a couple of occasions when his opponent is able to cut off the cage and blitz him. Grapplers have attempted to drag Lorenz to the mat with mixed results. Defending 77% of his opponent’s takedowns, Larkin has been put on the mat 9-times over 9 UFC fights.
After cutting to Middleweight, Larkin began his run with a decision win over former Welterweight champ Robbie Lawler, but went just 2-4 in the division before making the cut to his current weight class.
This is a fantastic fight, with the winner picking up a lot of momentum heading forward. It is an interesting juxtaposition, as despite his reach Magny will most likely do most of his work on the inside and Larkin will be looking to stay on the outside where he can unload with his kicks. Magny is the far more diverse fighter. He can strike, he can work in the clinch, and he can wrestle. Larkin will need to use his speed and kicking game to nullify Magny’s multi-faceted attack. As Mangy looks to push forward, he will move into Larkin’s kicking range. Once Larkin starts to batter the long legs of his opponent, Magny’s ability to move around the cage will be severely compromised. The hand speed of Larkin will also give Neil trouble and that will become more prominent as the fight progresses
my prediction is Lorenz Larking to defeat Neil Magny by TKO
170lbs- Colby Covington (9-1-0) vs Max Griffin (12-2-0)
In the first of 6 Welterweight bouts on the card, Colby ‘Chaos’ Covington meets promotional newcomer Max ‘Pain’ Griffin. Covington recovered from the first loss of his career, submitting Jonathan Meunier just over 2 months ago in Ottawa. Griffin has won back to back fights heading into his debut, most recently stopping UFC vet David Mitchell in just 43-seconds.
Griffin is just an inch taller than Covington, but he will have a sizeable 7″ reach advantage. Covington is the younger man by 3 years.
Max ‘Pain’ debuts having finished his foe in each of his last 4 wins. Griffin has recorded 6 wins by knockout and 2 by sub, ending 5 of those fights in the opening round. It is worth noting that he is 4-2 in decisions, with 4 of his last 5 fights to go the distance ending in a split decision- winning 2. He has some sizeable pop in his hands and all indications are that he has cleaned up his striking. He is willing to go to the mat, but his reliance on strength over technique can result in Griffin getting out positioned. In his recent fight against Randall Wallace, he had mixed results on the ground; holding some top position time but also giving up his back on multiple occasions.
Griffin is the former WFC Welterweight champion, with a solid 6-1 record in that organization.
Covington returned to the cage after getting submitted by Warlley Alves, and equaled his UFC best of 5 takedowns prior to submitting his adversary. In total, the former NCAA Division 1 wrestler has completed 15 takedowns over just 5 fights. He relies heavily on his ground attack, which led to his loss against Alves. Nonetheless, Covington is a strong wrestler, either shooting from distance or bullying his foe into the cage and before changing levels. Once on top, he has a smothering top-game, with the cardio needed to control and grind down his foe for the entire 3-rounds. Covington is still developing his striking attack, but his first order of attack is to close the gap and wrestle.
Despite having a bit of a reputation as a grinding decision inclined fighter, Covington has finished his opponent in 3 of his 4 UFC wins.
Griffin has a puncher’s chance. Covington has had issues against fighters that are able to put their strikes together and back him down. In order to do that, he needs to remain vertical which will be easier said than done. Even with the improvements made by Max, he tends to degenerate to a brawler when he opens up. If he can’t hurt Covington with an early onslaught, look for Covington to change levels and drag Griffin to the mat. When Wallace had Max on the floor he really struggled and was close to being finished. Covington is relentless with his wrestling and even if he can’t finish Griffin, look for him to wear him down and diminish the threat of his foe’s striking
my prediction is Colby Covington to defeat Max Griffin by submission.
185lbs- Alberto Uda (9-1-0) vs Marvin Vettori (10-2-0)
In the opening fight of the night, Brazil’s Alberto Uda makes UFC appearance #2 when he battles it out with promotional newcomer Marvin Vettori in the Middleweight division. Vettori has won 5 consecutive fights, most recently defeating former Octagon combatant Igor Araujo by submission. Uda dropped his debut fight against Jake Collier by 2nd round knockout, handing him the first loss of his career.
At 6’3″, Uda is 3 inches taller and will have a 3″ reach advantage. Vettori is the younger man by 9 years and normally competes at Welterweight, but will be moving up to 185-pounds for his debut.
The former Venator champion is coming off a massive victory, tapping out a legit BJJ Black belt with 17 submission wins to his name. Vettori has stopped 4 of his last 5 opponents and has gone the distance just once in his 10 victories including 7 wins by submission. All of his wins inside the distance have come in the opening round. Vettori rocked Araujo early with a jumping knee and after a brief altercation on the floor, was able to get the submission. At distance, he isn’t the most fluid striker, but his recent transition to King’s MMA could help to improve that element of his attack. He does his best work at close range, attacking in the clinch and working well from top position. He can do some damage with his dirty boxing and top position strikes, but he is more inclined to look for submission opportunities. While he has had a lot of success finishing on the mat, he will relinquish a superior position while looking for the finish.
Having finished all but 1 of his 10 wins early in the fight, there are questions about his cardio. In his last defeat, he won the opening round but noticeably slowed in the middle frame and lost the decision. He is 1-2 in fights that go beyond the round 1.
In similar fashion, Uda does his best work when fighting in a phone booth. The Brazilian routinely went to the Thai clinch in his debut, and landed hard knees to the head of his foe- stunning Collier and breaking his nose in the opening round. Alberto stopped UFC alumni Thiago Perpetuo with knees in the clinch in his final pre-UFC appearance. When defending takedowns, he does a decent job of stuffing the initial shot and drawing his foe into the clinch where he can go on the offensive. He doesn’t offer much of a distance striking game, routinely moving forward behind his initial strikes to set up his clinch attack. Uda has split his 8 finishes evenly between submissions and knockouts, finishing 4 in the first round. On the mat, he has decent submission game and can work off his back. Despite the strong start, Uda looked a little fatigued in the second round and went down quickly after being battered to the body with a turning side-kick.
Uda finished 3 of his first 4 career fights by submission, but has relied more on his Muay Thai background in his recent victories.
With both men preferring to operate on the inside it shouldn’t take long for either fighter to settle into his comfort zone. Uda is coming off his first career loss, which should help him to refocus and improve upon his return to the cage. He also has his debut under his belt. For Vettori, he is taking a step up in competition while moving up in weight for his first UFC fight. Those can be some difficult scenarios to overcome. The Italian appears to be the more capable athlete, but he will need to get off to a strong start to find success. With almost all of his wins coming in the opening round, if Marvin is unable to finish his foe he could experience a drop-off in performance in rounds 2 and 3. Look for the Brazilian to use his height to gain leverage over his opponent in the clinch, landing hard knees and getting the better of the battle for position. If they go to the ground, Vettori’s submission over position approach could lead to a finish or provide Uda with essential top control time. Uda’s Thai clinch will be the difference in this fight. It will both set up his offense and prevent Vettori from landing his own. If the fight goes beyond the opening round, look for Alberto to control the action with greater ease and continue to unload with brutal knees against a diminished foe
my prediction is Alberto Uda to defeat Marvin Vettori by TKO
