UFC 202 Diaz vs McGregor

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Current #'s



Marvin Vettori -165
Alberto Uda +145

Max Griffin +250
Colby Covington -300

Lorenz Larkin +110
Neil Magny -130

Cortney Casey +115
Randa Markos -135

Chris Avila -110
Artem Lobov -110

Elizabeth Phillips +225
Raquel Pennington -265

Takeya Mizugaki +425
Cody Garbrandt -550

Sabah Homasi +360
Tim Means -450

Mike Perry +280
Hyun Gyu Lim -340

Rick Story +145
Donald Cerrone -165

Glover Teixeira +175
Anthony Johnson -210

Nate Diaz -105
Conor McGregor -115
 

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about the same ... This sport has been almost impossible to handicap in 2016. Nowadays (besides Mighty Mouse) Anybody can beat Anybody

I hear ya on that. The match ups are getting more competitive, 7 new champs in 7 months
 

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I'm done with breaking my neck studying youtube videos and fight pass .... hours on end before each event looking up info / stats / how camps have gone / how weight cuts went etc ... It has been a total waste of time the past 8-9 months. There is no handicapping edge there anymore.

The best tools are ...

-Fading who has the belt

-Following the heavy money that comes in during fight week
 

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I'm done with breaking my neck studying youtube videos and fight pass .... hours on end before each event looking up info / stats / how camps have gone / how weight cuts went etc ... It has been a total waste of time the past 8-9 months. There is no handicapping edge there anymore.

The best tools are ...

-Fading who has the belt

-Following the heavy money that comes in during fight week

I think Eddie Alvarez will be the next champ to lose the belt
 

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I really want Diaz to beat Conor again but I just don't think McCocksucker will drop back to back fights
 

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1 week out

Sports Insights ...


Diaz is receiving 60% of tickets and 90% of the money wagered at UFC 202, moving from +140 to +100 against Conor McGregor.
 

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UFC 202 Predictions
from Predictem



Nate Diaz, 20-10 (5 KOs, 13 Submissions), (+115) vs. Conor McGregor, 19-3 (17 KOs, 1 Submission), (-135)

The main event of UFC 202 features the rematch between Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor. In March, Diaz shocked McGregor and the MMA world with a stunning second-round submission win. It brought the meteoric rise of McGregor to a halt—at least for now. If McGregor wants to get back to the business of being an MMA powerhouse and mega-star, he will need to exorcise his Diaz demons. Can he do it or is Diaz all wrong for the Irish striker?

In their first fight in March, McGregor was doing well until it all collapsed. In the first round, he was strafing Diaz with punches and was looking pretty good. When Diaz got warmed-up, however, things started pointing downhill for McGregor rather quickly. Diaz stepped in with some punches that had a visibly-negative affect on McGregor. After getting dazed by a Diaz combination, McGregor tried to grope for something—taking the fight to the floor, where Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master Diaz was able to secure an easy submission.

The first fight offers hope to those looking to back either Diaz or McGregor. For those looking to get behind Diaz, they can find solace in the fact that he’s simply a bigger man. In fighting, that can make all the difference when dealing with two really good fighters. The bigger guy will always have an advantage. It’s hard to not notice that in the first fight, when Diaz really started asserting himself, McGregor appeared to be out of his element. Diaz’ punches have far-greater impact and on the ground, it’s not even a contest. And this time, Diaz is not coming in on just over a week’s notice. He will have a full camp to prepare—a scary thought, considering how well he did in March without a ton of time to get ready.

For McGregor backers, there is also hope, despite the awful result of the first match. McGregor was moving up two weight classes to take on a man whose stature is so much bigger than the guys McGregor has been fighting. At 145 pounds, McGregor was the lanky one, able to use his reach to set up his slashing strikes. But against Diaz, he was dwarfed. Now, he knows the full-scope of what he is up against. Perhaps he can adjust.

With McGregor unwilling to fulfill certain obligations, the fight was scratched from the UFC 200 card. This may have been frustrating to some for that fight to have fallen out, but it probably helped McGregor. After all, the result of this fight hinges on McGregor’s ability to come up with something different. It gave him more time to prepare physically, while putting more time between that defeat.

One should expect a more cautious approach from McGregor this time around. As they say, fools rush in. McGregor was peppering Diaz with shots and mostly having his own way. Combine that with the ease in which McGregor had been beating his previous UFC opponents and it’s not hard to see why he would develop an unrealistic sense of invulnerability. And it really cost him. It’s not that difficult to conceive of a game-plan where McGregor employs more movement, stays out of Diaz’ range, and opens up his full arsenal of strikes. It could have a resounding affect this time around and throw a different complexion on this fight.

Alas, this is a 5-round fight. Twenty-five minutes is a long time. We saw in the first fight that Diaz has some margin for error. He was hit repeatedly and was still in good enough shape to end the fight with a submission win. He was marked up, but hardly incapacitated by McGregor’s shots. Conversely, McGregor was utterly unable to absorb the Diaz attack without adverse affects. Once Diaz committed himself to offense, it was a wrap. So potential McGregor backers have to face that reality—that no matter how well he does, he’s never too far from ruin.

To a large degree, McGregor’s hubris has manifested into a major career-changer and not in a good way. He won the featherweight title in quicker fashion than it takes for us to get out of bed. Then, he was given a shot to move up ten pounds to the next weight class to challenge then-champion Rafael dos Anjos, a fight that fell out with an injury to dos Anjos. A replacement was found, one that forced McGregor to move up yet another 15 pounds. McGregor’s “damn the torpedoes” machismo was commendable, but now the UFC Featherweight Champion is locked into a career-defining rivalry with a 170-pounder. It seems a bit bizarre. It didn’t have to be this way.

The stakes of this fight could have a positive affect on McGregor’s performance. It’s hard to identify a more-urgent moment in a fighter’s career, where so much is at stake. Even if McGregor lost, he would certainly still have a high-profile career on his hands, but it would be a far cry from where he would be if he could avenge this loss and get back to being the top dog in the organization. To some degree, it should be expected that this urgency will resonate with McGregor, who will prepare better, focus himself more, and just generally humble himself for what truly is a big task in UFC 202.

Not to be dismissive of McGregor, who is a unique talent, but it’s hard to shake the image of that first fight. We sometimes need to be reminded why there are weight classes in MMA and jumping up two divisions to face a top fighter like Diaz is just cuckoo on a lot of levels. This fight also reminds us of the power of name-value. We saw a much smaller McGregor get manhandled by Diaz, but the superstar Irishman remains a favorite for this fight! Granted, he should be better and knows what he is now facing, but Diaz having the chance to prepare accordingly with a proper camp could negate that. Considering what we all saw with our own eyes in March, it’s just hard to not take Diaz at an underdog price.


My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Nate Diaz at +115. He’s potentially all wrong for McGregor—too big, too dangerous, too multi-faceted, and too tough. McGregor winning would register as something far less than a shock and he reserves the right to improve, but so does Diaz and 5 rounds is a lot of time for Conor to avoid incurring the Diaz wrath.




Anthony Johnson, 21-5 (15 KOs), (-230) vs. Glover Teixeira, 25-4 (15 KOs, 7 Submissions), (+190)

In the co-main event, light heavyweights Anthony Johnson and Glover Teixeira will duke it out in a light heavyweight matchup. While Diaz-McGregor II will garner most of the pub, this could be the fight of the year—a massively-appealing matchup in what seems like a can’t-miss pairing of 205-pound contenders. The winner will become a leading contender for a title shot, so the stakes are high in this crossroads bout. It’s hard to not get excited for this one.

Both men are at the cusp and have come up short at the absolute top levels of the sport. Johnson, 32, is a monster who has wreaked havoc on the 205-pound class with graphic demolitions over the likes of Antonio Nogueira, Alexander Gustafsson, and Jimi Manuwa. He’s a violent and dangerous striker—absolutely terrifying. Only light heavyweight champ Daniel Cormier was able to quell his fury with a submission win in May of 2015. Besides that, it’s been uphill for Johnson.

Teixeira is also facing a crossroads moment in his career at age 36. In 2014, his ascent to the top was interrupted—first in a decision loss to champion Jon Jones and then with another points loss to Phil Davis. Three wins have revived his career, with Teixeira stopping Ovince St. Preux, Patrick Cummins, and Rashad Evans all inside the distance in his last three fights. Teixeira is ungodly strong and is capable of boxing and the submission game, as his record attests. His ground-and-pound is ruthless and violent and he packs power in either hand. In a lot of ways, he has it all. He represents a nice combination of power and skill—a ton of strength with an abundance of finesse.

Teixeira hasn’t been KO’d since his pro debut back in 2002. Then again, he hasn’t faced a striker with the lethality of Johnson. Don’t get it wrong—Johnson is a realistic threat to derail any 205-pounder on the planet. It’s just that the Cormier fight showed he is tamed a bit by a fighter who can get him to the ground and strike with competency. To be getting a more versatile fighter like Glover in this spot at these underdog odds is too hard to pass on. I’m going with Teixeira.


My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Glover Teixeira at +190. Johnson’s danger-potential is scary, but I see the overall competence, strength, durability, and versatility of Teixeira getting the job done at the end of the day
 

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UFC 202
from Lootmeister



Nate Diaz, (-110), 20-10 (4 KOs, 13 Submissions) vs. Conor McGregor, (-120), 19-3 (17 KOs, 1 Submission)


In the main event of UFC 202, Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor battle it out in a highly-anticipated rematch at 170 pounds. In their first fight in March, Diaz scored a huge upset with a second-round submission win over the budding superstar McGregor. The Irishman gets an opportunity to reverse that loss, but will have his hands full with a man who proved to be a most troublesome foe the first time around. Will McGregor gain revenge or is Diaz all wrong for the still-UFC featherweight champion?

This was originally penciled in as the UFC 200 main event, before McGregor had a falling out with the organizational brass. Without getting into all the details, the bottom line is that the fight got pushed back a month and a half. It is unclear how much of an impact that will have. McGregor perhaps has more time to recover from the loss to Diaz and to prepare for the rematch. And avoiding a really quick turnaround can also help Diaz, who now gets even more time to prepare, having had very little time in their first fight. And when a fighter scores an upset and is put back into a rematch really fast, it can sometimes not go well. One remembers how ill-prepared Roberto Duran was in his expedited rematch with Sugar Ray Leonard. The extra time has given Diaz time to relish the win and the spoils that come with it, while affording him enough time to get his nose back to the grindstone.

There is a ton to consider as we formulate our Diaz-McGregor prediction. The first fight began well enough for McGregor, as was strafing Diaz with shots for the first round and change. But when the bigger Diaz started honing in, his shots registered far more of a reaction. A wobbled and disoriented McGregor took the fight to the ground, where the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu expertise of Diaz ended the night via rear-naked choke.

Both fighters were facing difficult conditions in their March bout. With Rafael dos Anjos going down to injury, Diaz was brought in on 11 days notice without a training camp and still managed to register a massive upset. But McGregor was also up against it—facing a very capable fighter after moving up two whole weight classes. And hubris certainly played a role, with McGregor's "take all comers" attitude coming back to bite him. Perhaps the defeat will prove to be a humbling experience for McGregor, whose over-the-top braggadocio needed to come down a notch or two.

What can McGregor do different in this fight? The question alone suggests that the defeat had something to do with what McGregor did wrong, rather than what Diaz did right. And that's not entirely the case. But there are things he can do better. He can employ more movement and attack with less abandon, now knowing the flip side of the coin. And at all costs, you'd assume he will avoid going to the ground—at least willingly, like he foolishly did in their first fight. And a little more time holding the extra weight and going through another camp might have him a bit more acclimated for the rigors of a 170-pound fight.

But Diaz will have a full training camp, with even more time to sharpen his skills and conditioning. And he may have more routes to victory, with his stand-up and Jiu-Jitsu prowess. His shots really affected McGregor and he didn't have to land many of them to make an impact. Diaz' margin for error is so much larger. He can do everything wrong and then just do one thing right to win. McGregor, however, will need to be on a tightrope, with any miscue leading to potential disaster.

McGregor is facing a career crisis with this fight counting for a whole lot. A win can put the previous loss in the rearview, as McGregor gets back to the business of being an MMA mega-superstar. Another loss puts a major dent into McGregor's status. Sure, he can brush it off and write it off as a case of him biting off more than he can chew and then return to featherweight. But the shine would be off. In other words, there is a ton on the line for McGregor. He is likely at the most-urgent point of his career and that counts for something when dealing with a man like McGregor. It's the same guy who made a long walk to get to this spot, so his drive and motivation are factors that need to be considered.

McGregor could find that a general re-focusing will have a very positive affect on his fighting. For a fighter to get to the top like McGregor, a singular focus is required. But as fighters achieve more and more fame, the outside demands also increase. McGregor had perhaps let his mind drift away from the very thought patterns that allowed him to ascend to the top in the first place. And with the whole falling out of the originally scheduled UFC 200 rematch, it's obvious that he is now cognizant of the connection between losing and reduced overall focus. That's not to imply that he wasn't focused for Diaz, but maybe he wasn't quite as focused as he should have been.

The betting odds still being in McGregor's favor speaks to the power of name-value. But it's not totally unjustified. A sharper and more mentally on-point McGregor should put himself in a better position to win. But it's hard to forget how Diaz started dominating McGregor the moment he started applying himself and doing damage. The truth is that weight classes are not merely artificial lines drawn in the sand that don't mean anything. Size is key in any fighting sport and Diaz is a big and rangy guy compared to the featherweights McGregor dominated on his way to becoming a superstar. At a slight underdog price, it's just to hard to not take Diaz in this spot.



Loot's Pick to Win the Match: I'm betting on Nate Diaz at +110
 

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Live Dogs for UFC 202
from MMA Odds Breaker



Light Heavyweight bout: Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (-210) vs Glover Teixeira (+175)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this light heavyweight match-up is a lot closer than the betting odds currently suggest. To put it simply, I think the best Glover Teixeira beats the best Anthony Johnson. He can be competitive on the feet, has a better ground game, not to mention more heart and a bigger will to win. I think this is a close fight in which Teixeira should be a slight +120 underdog, so at his current offering price of +175, I’ll take him for a small play. Given this much value, I would normally make my play a little bigger, however I am keeping in mind that Teixeira is up there in age and Rumble packs serious power, so I am opting to keep it smaller than I would normally.

Gabe’s Call: Teixeira by Submission (arm triangle choke, 3:12 round 3)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Teixeira (+175) 1u to win 1.75u



Welterweight bout: Rick “The Horror” Story (+140) vs Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (-160)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I believe Story is the superior of the two welterweights heading into this contest, largely in part due to his advantage is size and strength. I see him pressuring Cerrone in this contest, finding success with his boxing and potentially putting the former UFC lightweight title challenger away with a TKO. I think Story will be effective with his body shots in this contest and think he will manage to outstrike Cerrone, who on paper is the superior striker heading into the 170-pound affair. I think Story can also mix in takedowns and work from top position while successfully defending Cerrone’s submission attempts. I believe this is Story’s fight to lose and think he should be a -240 betting favorite heading into the contest, so at his current underdog price of +140, I do like him for a big play.

Gabe’s Call: Story by T/KO (punches in bunches, 2:59 round 1)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Story (+140) 5u to win 7u
 

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Pair of Parlays for UFC 202
from MMA Odds Breaker



Women’s Bantamweight bout: Raquel Pennington (-245) vs Elizabeth Phillips (+205)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I believe Pennington is the superior mixed martial artist of the two heading into this women’s 135-pound contest and I see her advantages in boxing and cardio being her keys to victory. I see her outboxing Phillips in this contest and mixing in takedowns en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. Phillips does not have good cardio to start with, so considering that she is coming off an extended layoff, I have a hard time seeing her winning rounds two and three in this bout, should she manage to edge Pennington in the opening stanza.

Gabe’s Call: Pennington by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)



Featherweight bout: Randa Markos (-135) vs Cortney Casey (+115)

Gabe’s Thoughts: Casey is making an immediate turnaround following her first round TKO of Cristina Stanciu just a few weeks back and will be looking to make it two in a row for herself inside the Octagon against Markos, who I believe is a big step up in competition from her previous opponent. I can see Markos outboxing Casey but I think her wrestling is what will make the difference in this women’s 115-pound match-up. I see Markos touching Casey up on the feet here and there, but more importantly, scoring takedowns and spending time in top position on the mat, doing damage with her ground and pound. I believe Markos is the superior fighter of the two, and coming off her unanimous decision win over Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger, she plans to make it two in a row for herself by defeating Casey.

Gabe’s Call: Markos by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)



Gabe’s Recommended Parlays: 1) Pennington (-245) and Markos (-135) at +145 for 2u to win 2.9u and 2) Pennington/Phillips Over 2.5 rounds (-250) and Markos/Casey Over 2.5 rounds (-210) at +106 for 2.25u to win 2.4u
 

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UFC 202: Why Diaz Beats McGregor … Again
from Justin Hartling



Diaz Has A Huge Physical Advantage

McGregor can dominate his opponents at 145 lbs as the Irishman is massive for a featherweight. McGregor had always had the reach advantage at featherweight – by upwards of eight inches – but Diaz is just a much bigger human being.

Diaz will enter the octagon with a two-inch reach advantage, a three-inch height advantage and likely a decent weight advantage. If you go back to the first fight between these two, you will see just how often McGregor is swinging wildly at the air and coming nowhere near hitting Diaz – especially with the left cross he insisted on using endlessly.

Diaz is a long and lanky individual, which limits one of McGregor’s biggest strengths when he fights at 145 lbs. The Stockton native has fought multiple times at welterweight – with proven results – but McGregor has yet to prove that he can carry that much weight and be successful.


You Simply Can’t Knockout Diaz

McGregor has picked up 17 of his 19 career victories via KO or TKO. ‘The Notorious One’ can land a one-hitter quitter at 145, but guys who routinely fight at 155 or 170 are more accustomed to taking heavy shots.

Diaz has been knocked out exactly once in his 29 professional fights – against Josh Thompson in April 2013. Diaz has been in the Octagon with the likes of Rafael dos Anjos, Rory MacDonald and Donald Cerrone and none of those guys were able to finish the Stockton native.

The first fight gave an insight into what happens to McGregor if he can’t truly wobble his opponent. The Irishmen just kept throwing haymaker after haymaker in the hopes that Diaz would go down, but he simply could not put him away. This emptied McGregor's gas tank and Diaz was able to easily dispatch the Irishman.


Diaz Can Last Longer

Because Diaz has an iron chin and ridiculous cardio – you’ll hear about how he competes in triathlons about 15 times during the broadcast – he has a proven track record of going deep into fights. Diaz has made it to the judges scorecards in 10 of his past 18 fights – one of which was a five-round affair against Benson Henderson.

McGregor has gone the distance just once in his career – which was only a three-round bout. In fact, that was the only bout in the Irishman’s career that went past the first two rounds. In addition – McGregor is going to be carrying the extra weight that zapped his cardio in his first fight with Diaz.

If McGregor can’t finish Diaz early – which is almost assured given Diaz’ proven track record – then he starts getting into areas he has never been before. Diaz relishes wearing down his opponents and will likely take charge if this fight gets past the first 10 minutes.
 

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UFC 202 predictions: Fight Pass 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 1
By Patrick L. Stumberg - MMA Mania




170 lbs.: Neil Magny vs. Lorenz Larkin

Despite just reaching the semifinals in one of the worst The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) seasons, Neil Magny (18-4) has emerged as one of the Welterweight division’s best. He’s won 10 of his last 11 fights, including a comeback knockout of Hector Lombard in his most recent bout.

He stands four inches taller than Lorenz Larkin (17-5) at 6’3."

Larkin -- who opened his Strikeforce career at Light Heavyweight -- has found a real home for himself in UFC’s 170-pound division. He’s gone 3-1 since making the drop, the sole loss a close decision against Albert Tumenov and one of the victories a knockout of Santiago Ponzinibbio.

He’s knocked out 10 opponents overall.

This is a really, really good fight, far more intriguing than the planned match up between Magny and Dong Hyun Kim. I expect the same result, a Magny decision, but he’s going to have a much tougher time pulling it off.

While Larkin has the speed and power advantage, Magny is incredibly composed under fire and has bounced back from early trouble against big hitters like Hyun Gyu Lim and the aforementioned Lombard. I simply don’t believe Larkin can put him out before Magny settles in and ruthlessly exploits his length advantage.

There’s also Magny’s ever-evolving wrestling to consider.

Event though Larkin is a great talent whom I expect will push Magny hard, Magny’s length and grappling edge should carry him to a competitive decision.


Prediction: Magny via unanimous decision




170 lbs.: Colby Covington vs. Max Griffin

Colby Covington (9-1) opened his UFC career with three straight wins, but was eighty-sixed in 86 seconds by Warlley Alves’ guillotine his next time out. He’s since rebounded with a dominant submission win over late replacement Johnathan Meunier in Ottawa.

He has tapped six of his 10 professional opponents.

Max Griffin (12-2) enters UFC having won eight of his last nine fights, losing only to prospect Chidi Njokuani in a five-round split decision. His last two fights have seen him knockout Randall Wallace in four and starch former UFC competitor David Mitchell in under a minute.

The WFC champ has knocked out six opponents overall.

Covington, simply put, is a horrific match up for UFC newcomers. The American Top Team (ATT) product has terrific wrestling and the sort of patient, grinding style that leaves few openings for those without a killer guillotine. He also has the cardio to maintain his takedown onslaught for all three rounds, eating away at his opponent’s cardio and confidence all the while.

Any debutant will have issues with Covington, but Griffin will have even more than usual.

Griffin struggled badly with Randall Wallace’s wrestling two fights ago, repeatedly giving up his back. He hits hard, sure, but doesn’t have the takedown defense or technique to bring that power to bear before Covington bulldozes him to the mat. "Chaos" overwhelms him before locking up the rear-naked choke partway through the second.


Prediction: Covington via second-round submission.




185 lbs.: Alberto Pereira vs. Marvin Vettori

Brazil’s Alberto Pereira (10-1) brought a four-fight knockout streak into his Octagon debut, capped off by a first-round knockout of inaugural TUF: "Brazil" competitor Thiago Perpetuo. "Uda" managed to break Jake Collier’s nose early on, but succumbed to a hard knee and spinning back kick sixty-six seconds into the second round.

He will have a three-inch height advantage over the 6’0" Marvin Vettori (10-2).

Italy’s Vettori became the Venator Welterweight Champion in the promotion’s inaugural show and scored a successful defense in its second one. This past May, he earned the biggest win of his career with a guillotine submission of Igor Araujo on the infamous Palhares vs. Meek card. He’s submitted seven opponents and knocked out another two.

"Uda" looked as good as advertised in the clinch against Jake Collier, but seemed profoundly uncomfortable outside of it, wading in with lunging punches and showing little nuance to his clinch entries. He also ate far more punches than is reasonable from a below-average striker. While the drop to welterweight may improve his already-fearsome clinch, it’s not going to fix his technical flaws.

Vettori has the edge in wrestling and overall grappling, which ought to synergize nicely with Pereira’s love of working inside. So long as the Italian steers clear of Uda’s knees, I expect him to lock up something in transition.


Prediction: Vettori via first-round submission
 

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Toe-to-Toe: UFC 202 Preview and Predictions
from Combat Press


Combat Press writers Chris Huntemann and Zach Aittama are here to get you ready for all of the action.



Nate Diaz already has a win over Conor McGregor at welterweight, but the UFC is giving fans an immediate rematch. Will McGregor fare better in the second go-around, or will Diaz prove that his first victory over McGregor was no fluke? Should this rematch have taken place at lightweight?

Aittama: Let’s take a step back and look at what transpired in the first fight.

We need to look back even further to fully comprehend the storyline of the first clash between McGregor and Diaz. It was announced 10 days before UFC 196 that lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos was injured and unable to defend his title against the featherweight king McGregor. The UFC scrambled to find a potential replacement opponent from a list of formidable candidates that included former champ Anthony Pettis and fan-favorite Donald Cerrone. Zuffa brass took just one day to make one of the most monumental decisions in 2016.

UFC President Dana White joined McGregor and Diaz for an impromptu pre-fight press conference that quickly went viral. The UFC’s decision to put Diaz in the fight greatly increased the hype around the newly crowned featherweight champion’s return to the Octagon following his 13-second destruction of long-time featherweight champ José Aldo. The decision to bring in an “out-of-shape” lightweight contender turned out to be one of the best moves the UFC could have made — and maybe one of the worst, too.

Diaz and McGregor did more than enough leading up to the fight to sell the bout to the casual fans tuning in to see what everyone else was talking about on social media. McGregor seemed upbeat and confident heading into what he and much of his fan following believed would be a easy win for the heavy-hitting Irishman. McGregor stepped on the scales at a comfortable 168 pounds. Diaz would have struggled to make lightweight on short notice, so the fighters met in the welterweight division in what was essentially a battle of lightweights not having to cut to make the weight.

This is where the problems began for McGregor. The massive featherweight walked onto the scale after a week of steak and luxuries he would never be afforded if he had to cut to make 145 pounds. The struggle to get down to featherweight was a torturous venture for McGregor that made him hungrier come fight time. The average observer may take not having to cut weight as a benefit for McGregor, but it turned out to be just one of many complications that made this fight different than his destructive path through the featherweight division.

Many pundits and fans believed McGregor was given softballs on his path to the UFC featherweight crown. The brash trash-talking “Mystic Mac” marched through the weight class with win after win, knockout after knockout. The red flags were waving when McGregor was given striker after striker. That may be the case when it comes to his match-up with Dennis Siver to earn his title shot against Aldo. However, McGregor had to defeat top fighters Dustin Poirier, Max Holloway and eventually Chad Mendes when Aldo pulled out of their UFC 189 bout on 12 days’ notice. Any notion about softballs would change when McGregor was slated to face Diaz, a strong transitional grappler with a knack for pulling off that “fuck you” submission against some of the top lightweights.

In Diaz, McGregor was fighting one of his most experienced opponents to date and a guy with the best ability to absorb and avoid punishment. Diaz was fresh off a dominant comeback performance against rising lightweight contender Michael Johnson at UFC on Fox 17. He was by far the best grappler that McGregor had ever faced. Anyone who was a fan of the Skrap Pack knew that even on 10 days’ notice, Diaz was going to be one of the toughest tests of the 27-year-old’s career.

McGregor seemed just a little off in his approach. He was pushing Diaz back with spinning attacks and power punching. Diaz was sneaking in his own shots during the exchanges. Diaz was bloodied up by the end of the first frame, like both Nate and his brother, Nick, often are. McGregor had his moments of success with his counter left hand off of Diaz’s lead right jab. The featherweight king showed improvement in his head movement and overall boxing ability despite getting hit with some strong left straights and jabs from Diaz throughout the round.

McGregor wasn’t quite comfortable fighting against someone taller who held a reach advantage. McGregor’s bout against Mendes was against a fighter giving up nearly eight inches of reach, and the results were clear. McGregor put Mendes away with a left hand in the second round after he brutalized the body in the first round with hard kicks and punches. McGregor wasn’t afforded that advantage against Diaz.

Diaz put his significant advantage to use in the second round with his signature “Stockton Slap” to counter the aggressive McGregor. Diaz started putting his combinations together as the time ticked off the clock and McGregor continued to taunt and push the pace in the fight. Diaz completely changed the course of the fight with a one-two combination that stunned McGregor. The simple southpaw favorite morphed the close fight into a domination after a major momentum swing in Diaz’s favor. Diaz turned up the pressure as he smelled the blood in the water. He battered McGregor in the clinch and continued to press forward with his right jab-left straight combinations until the Irishman couldn’t take the punishment on the feet anymore. McGregor was sapped of his energy from the punches and he made a major mistake. McGregor shot in for a takedown against the far superior grappler.

The maneuver signaled the end for McGregor. Diaz jumped on a guillotine and used it to get into the mount of a tired and reeling McGregor. Diaz landed two strong punches from the top position that forced McGregor to turn over and give up his back. Diaz stretched McGregor out, landed a few quick strikes, put his arm under the chin and tightened up the rear-naked choke. McGregor tapped and the fans in the audience, from Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson to Niall Horan from One Direction, had their spirit crumbled by the bloodied underdog’s second-round submission victory. Diaz took to the mic in the post-fight interview to tell the countless doubters watching worldwide that he was confident in his abilities. Diaz spoke his mind, saying, “I’m not surprised, motherfuckers!” The nearly three-to-one underdog toppled the biggest superstar in the sport.

McGregor wanted the rematch. Despite his coach’s wishes, he wanted the rematch at welterweight. Following a risky business move by McGregor, the fight was pulled from the UFC’s crown jewel event, UFC 200, after the Irishman failed to meet his promotional requirements set out in his UFC contract.

The two sides came to an agreement, though, and now the fight is on for UFC 202.

This is where we stand today. Just six months following his upset defeat, McGregor has brought in boxing champions and high-level grapplers to prepare for the biggest fight in his career. Diaz enters the fight with a full camp himself. Many have questioned the timing for McGregor after taking such a hard loss less than a year ago. However, the UFC is in the business of making money and this certainly is a money fight.

I don’t believe the outcome will change the second time around, but I do believe McGregor will approach this fight differently. He won’t look to put Diaz away in the first and he won’t pressure Diaz. Instead, he’ll look to counter the excellent boxer with a combination of his left cross, a strong jab and straight, and, for his sake, a few strong leg kicks to the lead leg of Diaz. Diaz won’t need to change much heading into the second bout. He will have to capitalize on any McGregor mistake and make the most of his opportunities, because they could be less frequent against a better prepared McGregor.

Diaz brings it home for his Stockon faithful and continues to build his own profile as a star mixed martial artist. He’ll lock up another submission victory after a close and competitive main event.


Huntemann: Good God, dude. Must you write so long every single time? UFC 202 will be over by the time we finish reading your responses. I’ll just stick to the script and answer the questions as presented, thank you very much.

Will McGregor fare better with a full training camp specifically tailored to facing Diaz? Yes, he will. No one should have been surprised that McGregor was confident facing Diaz on short notice at UFC 196. Unlike some of his contemporaries, the Irishman has no problem facing an entirely new opponent with minimal time to prepare when unexpected circumstances arise.

I’ll be honest, too. I thought McGregor would make short work of Diaz, much like he did of Aldo. I underestimated the possible effects of what moving up two weight classes might have on McGregor, and I also greatly underestimated Diaz. I believed his best days (as they were) were behind him and McGregor would just enjoy another easy payday. Oh, how wrong I was.

All that said, while I don’t think McGregor will be submitted in the second round again, I don’t think he will win either. Simply put, Diaz is unlike any other fighter McGregor has faced. Diaz isn’t intimidated by McGregor like other fighters have been, even if those guys will never admit it. Diaz isn’t letting McGregor get in his head, as happened to Aldo when the Brazilian lost the featherweight title to McGregor last year.

Another way to put it? Diaz gives exactly zero fucks. He dishes it out just as good as he takes it, and he dishes out the trash talk to McGregor just as good — and better, frankly — as McGregor delivers it. Even with a full training camp to prepare this time, McGregor won’t be able to keep up with Diaz on the ground. McGregor may have trained nothing but jiu-jitsu for the last five months, but Diaz has been training in it most of his life. If this fight goes to the mat again, I don’t like McGregor’s chances.

I’m also not sure having this fight at lightweight would change the outcome any. McGregor wouldn’t have to put on as much weight, but I don’t think it’s a matter of mass for him. It’s a matter of skill. While McGregor is as skilled a striker as they come, Diaz eats strikes for breakfast. He took McGregor’s best shots in their first fight and just smiled. If McGregor can outland Diaz in strikes, he has a chance to win a decision. But if Diaz takes McGregor down, the Irishman is in big trouble.



Anthony “Rumble” Johnson and Glover Teixeira serve as the evening’s co-headliners. Both men are high-level light heavyweights, but they feel like also-rans in a division controlled by Daniel Cormier and Jon Jones. Can either man shatter that notion? Is Rumble capable of beating Cormier in a rematch? Can Rumble contend against Jones?

Huntemann: As much as it may pain some fight fans, Jones needs to be removed from this equation, at least for the time being. He’s likely facing a multiple-year suspension for his recent drug-test failure and will be a non-factor in the light heavyweight division until he decides to stop pissing away (literally) his extraordinary talent. That said, he did post an optimistically vague video on social media over the weekend that seemed to imply he might come back to the UFC sooner rather than later. For now, though, let’s operate under the assumption that he doesn’t.

A rematch between Cormier and Rumble doesn’t sound like the most exciting on paper. Neither does a bout between Cormier and Teixeira. Cormier dominated Rumble to win the title last year, and while Johnson rebounded nicely with dominant performances of his own against Jimi Manuwa and Ryan Bader, it remains to be seen if he can fare any better a second time against an elite wrestler like Cormier.

Teixeira could present a more interesting fight. He’s won his last three contests, all via finish, including back-to-back knockout wins over Patrick Cummins and Rashad Evans. Teixeira has top-level jiu-jitsu to go with his knockout power, so he would likely be just as comfortable standing with Cormier as he would going to the mat. If you’re hoping for an exciting title fight in the light heavyweight division, you’re rooting for Teixeira to defeat Rumble.

I was all set to pick Johnson, given his impressive performances since his loss to Cormier. However, after further consideration, I’m changing my mind and going with Teixeira. He can match Johnson’s power and surpass him on the ground, which makes the difference here. There’s no aspect to this fight that should make Teixeira uncomfortable.


Aittama: Unlike my colleague, I don’t believe you can take Jones completely out of the discussion. He’s been one of the most dominant fighters in UFC history, if not the most dominant. He’s done everything in his power to remove himself from this discussion through controversy after controversy, but you can’t really evaluate the talent in the light heavyweight division without factoring in Jones. Besides, there are fights for Jones that offer mass appeal: a rematch with Cormier, a fight with Rumble, potential rematches with Teixeira or even Alexander Gustafsson. Yet, I wouldn’t consider Jones to be an active participant in the upcoming title picture.

The potential match-ups between Rumble, Teixeira and Cormier, in any order or combination, will offer fans an exciting championship triangle for the time being. It’s clear that the winner of this fight should be the No.1 light heavyweight contender for Cormier’s title.

I disagree with my fellow writer’s assessment that a rematch between Johnson and Cormier wouldn’t be exciting. Their first bout was a tale of two fights. Johnson hit Cormier with some heavy punches and a devastating head kick, but the champion’s chin has been known to stand up to punishment better than most fighters. Cormier had serious trouble getting Johnson to the floor in the first fight. It took Cormier lifting Rumble clear off the ground to finally get him to the mat. That’s when the fight changed drastically in the other direction. Cormier elbowed and punched Johnson into a bloody mess in the second round. The turnaround left Johnson in a world of trouble that had his coaches concerned he was giving up. Johnson’s will and heart had come into question in a few of his past fights. However that notion was only brought back up when Johnson met extreme adversity against Cormier. Rumble did succumb to Cormier’s rear-naked choke submission in the third frame.

Teixeira could certainly fair better on the ground against Cormier, but I would question whether or not Teixeira could stay off of his back. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt does his best work from top position, and no one wants to be under the smothering former Olympic wrestler. I could absolutely see Cormier getting the better of both fighters. However, both men carry otherworldly power into a potential match-up with Cormier. Sometimes all it takes is one mistake or misstep.

Teixeira has already fought Jones in a weird and somewhat disappointing performance. Jones opted to yank on Teixeira’s shoulder in the early going before giving the eye-poke enthusiasts even more to talk about. Jones cruised past Teixeira in one of the Brazilian’s more reserved outings. Teixeira took another loss to former UFC fighter Phil Davis before starting up his current three-fight winning streak. Teixeira was dropped, but not broken, against Ovince St. Preux. He weathered the early storm in each round to put on a dominant grappling performance that ended with a rear-naked choke to put the Tennessee native to sleep in his home state. Teixeira made quick work of the aforementioned Cummins before putting away former UFC champion Evans in under two minutes. The Brazilian has impressed since his last loss to Jones, but again, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he overcomes one of the greatest fighters in the sport’s history.

The Johnson-Jones match-up is an interesting potential future bout. Rumble is one of the hardest hitters in the sport, with an impressive eight knockout wins in his last 12 fights. His only loss in that stretch was the aforementioned bout with Cormier. This potential fight is so intriguing because most fans want to know how Jones will navigate the dangerous exchanges on the feet. Jones is a strong wrestler, especially inside, but getting there and actually getting Johnson, a strong takedown defender, down is a different story. It’s a fight I don’t want to lose in the wake of Jones’s suspension.

Now, back to the fight this weekend. Teixeira and Johnson make for an exciting match-up of power punchers who aren’t afraid to hunt for the knockout. Rumble has finished 15 of his 21 wins by way of knockout. Teixeira has finished 21 of his 25 career wins. This is a fight that has all the makings of an all-out action showdown with one man leaving on his own accord and another leaving the Octagon on a stretcher. You might want to cover your children’s eyes when these two behemoths clash inside the cage, because someone is getting knocked the fuck out.

I will leave with my childish impressions of this fight. This matchmaking brings me back to when I first started watching the UFC in 2003, a time when the light heavyweight division was the premier division in the sport with names like Wanderlei Silva, Randy Couture, Chuck Liddell and many others. Rumble and Teixeira are two of the best in the division fighting for the next shot at UFC gold.



What to make of Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone? He’s probably the most popular fighter in the UFC and can always be counted on to deliver entertaining performances. However, almost every time he has a big fight, he comes up short, most notably against Rafael dos Anjos last year. Is Cerrone just a gatekeeper now? A special attraction? Will he ever hold a UFC title?

Aittama: I can get behind the idea that Cerrone doesn’t always show up when the fight matters most, but I don’t believe that he falters in every big fight. Cerrone rose to the occasion more than once over his career inside the Octagon. He has earned 17 wins since joining the UFC in 2011, including victories over current UFC lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez, former champ Benson Henderson and many more top-flight competitors. Cerrone has stopped a record 15 opponents inside the UFC/WEC with spectacular finishes over Edson Barboza, Charles Oliveira, Jim Miller, John Makdessi and many others. The list of Cerrone victims is far too long to list, which certainly plays to the fact that Cerrone is a fan-favorite and sellable fighter among the casual observer.

It’s hard to find a fight involving the brash Colorado native and New Mexico transplant that doesn’t include an entertaining bout and an exciting finish. Cerrone is the performance-bonus king, with an astounding 17 fight-night bonuses. To say Cerrone is a special attraction is an understatement, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t be able to get back into the title picture. Yeah, he got dropped and stopped in under 70 seconds by dos Anjos in his first attempt at UFC gold. That loss doesn’t mean he won’t have a fighting chance to find himself back at the top. If he makes his way back to the top, though, it will be in his new found weight class, the welterweight division. It’s a division where he has already picked up two wins in 2016 with finishes of Alex Oliveira and, most recently, Patrick Côté.

Cerrone has 10 wins and only one defeat — the loss to dos Anjos — in his past 11 fights. His last loss before his impressive streak of eight wins came at the hands of dos Anjos, too. The Brazilian took advantage of his superior grappling and a strong first round to take home a decision victory, but Cerrone started to climb back into the fight in the third round. Cerrone is a fighter who very much relies on the ebbs and flows of the fight game. Cerrone needs to find his rhythm to get rolling and showcase his full set of skills. He wasn’t able to find the rhythm when he dropped two fights to dos Anjos, ate a nasty liver kick from Pettis and was on the wrong side of a UFC record of significant strikes from Nate Diaz. Cerrone has shown inconsistencies in his offensive attack and mental state in his past fights. I believe many of those technical inconsistencies and mental lapses have subsided with the addition of striking coach Brandon Gibson to the all-star stable of Jackson-Winkeljohn.

Cerrone showcased his entire skill set against Côté, a very durable veteran, at UFC Fight Night 89 in June. He was able to expertly hit two double-leg takedowns on the aggressive Canadian before showcasing a brief look into his high-level ground game. He demonstrated his power and striking ability with three knockdowns, one in the second frame with a left hook and two in the third and final round. Cerrone looked calm and confident in his diverse offensive attack against the former light heavyweight with a strong series of kicks and punching combinations that eventually shattered the iron chin of Côté. Cerrone snuck in a left hook and two right hands to put Côté down before finishing him off with a series of punches on the ground against the cage. Cerrone kept his streak alive in an utterly dominant performance.

It’s hard to say that Cerrone will never reach the top of the welterweight division, especially with the revolving door of welterweight contenders, but if he has to put together another eight-fight winning streak to get his title shot, like he had to in the lightweight division, the likelihood he gets another crack at the belt drops significantly. Cerrone has one of the best records of active UFC fighters, but the welterweight division has become highly competitive with the retirement of Georges St-Pierre a few years ago and the emergence of the deep contender pool of one of the sport’s most talent-rich divisions.

One of those contenders has been overlooked in this line of questioning, and that man is the fighter who will be standing across the Octagon from Cerrone on Saturday night. Rick Story has put together an impressive winning streak of his own in his past three fights with victories over top contenders Gunnar Nelson and Tarec Saffiedine. Story is a bruising welterweight with a knack for throwing heavy leather and grinding on and breaking his opponents. Story finally broke through to contendership with a decision victory over Nelson in 2014. The MMA Lab product previously defeated former champion Johny Hendricks and title challenger Thiago Alves over five years ago. However, Story wasn’t able to pick up another top quality win until the five-round fight with Nelson nearly two years ago. He changed his fortune with a close, but clear-cut decision victory over former top-10 fighter Saffiedine in his return to the cage at UFC Fight Night 88 in May. Story found a home for his left hook and winging punches throughout the 15-minute affair.

Story has a style that could frustrate Cerrone in their upcoming clash. He makes use of his strength to hold his opponents against the cage and wear them down over the course of the fight. Cerrone won’t be the shorter of the two on fight night, but he will likely be smaller than Story. That doesn’t necessarily mean Cerrone will get bullied, as he is more than ready to battle back if the fight stays on the feet or the mat. Cerrone can’t get complacent with his success if he wants to continue his climb up the welterweight ladder. He will need to show up in top form and make good use of his much more diverse offensive attack. He will have opportunities to counter his aggressive foe, especially with one of his favorite techniques, the rear leg head kick. Saffiedine glanced a few right high kicks off of the back of the neck of Story in their fight and I don’t see Cerrone passing on the opportunity to land a few of his own.

“Cowboy” continues his impressive run and keeps his title hopes alive, but he’s more likely to keep his focus on collecting bonuses and calling for big money fights, and I don’t blame him one bit.


Huntemann: Facts are facts, my friend. Yes, Cerrone has a bunch of victories in the UFC. Yes, he’s beaten some of the best names out there, including Alvarez and Henderson. But before he defeated “Bendo” in the UFC, he lost to him twice in the WEC with a title on the line. He also lost to dos Anjos twice. He’s also lost to Diaz and Pettis when victories would have put him in line for a title shot.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying Cerrone is a bum. Far from it. He still has a lot left in the tank. It’s just perplexing that when he has something significant to fight for, he comes up short. Is it a matter of skill? I don’t think so. Cerrone is as talented as they come, with elite striking to boot. Should he perhaps put down the jetskis and ATVs and maybe spend a little more time in the gym?

Cerrone isn’t a gatekeeper, and I’m not exactly questioning Cerrone’s work ethic. But if Cerrone wants to be known as more than just a guy who puts on a fun fight but can’t quite seem to get over the hump, it might behoove him to try changing things up a little. Cerrone takes on all comers, which can be a good thing or a bad thing as he tries to achieve gold in the UFC.



Cody Garbrandt put himself into bantamweight title contention with an impressive first-round knockout of Thomas Almeida in May. Is his fight with Takeya Mizugaki a step in the wrong direction, or is it another opportunity for Garbrandt to put his name on the map?

Huntemann: My kneejerk reaction is that a fight with Mizugaki does represent a risk for Garbrandt. But once you get past the hype that surrounds Garbrandt, you should realize that he’s more or less right on track with his career. Yes, he knocked out a fast-rising prospect in Almeida and it would be understandable to get caught up in that and reward him with an immediate title shot against Dominick Cruz.

But that would have been a mistake. Cruz is one of the pound-for-pound best fighters in the world right now and likely would have exposed the fact that it might have been too much, too soon for Garbrandt. Giving him a battle-tested veteran like Mizugaki is a great way to determine if Garbrandt is truly ready for the UFC to get behind him and push him as one of its next bright young stars.

Now, if Garbrandt knocks out Mizugaki as quickly as he did Almeida (which I think he will)? Then I’m definitely open to having a conversation about Garbrandt receiving a title shot.


Aittama: I share this line of thinking when it comes to the proper development path of Garbrandt. He doesn’t need to be rushed to a title when there are qualified challengers waiting around him. T.J. Dillashaw is coming off a win at UFC 200 where he avenged one of his three career defeats. Bryan Caraway impressed in his decision win over formerly undefeated prospect Aljamain Sterling. John Lineker is scheduled to meet John Dodson in October after he recently handed Michael McDonald the worst beatdown of his career. There isn’t much room for Garbrandt to slide into the title picture in the near future.

That’s why this match-up isn’t a step back, as my colleague put it. It’s a fight against a battle-tested veteran that presents a bit of a risk for the up-and-coming Garbrandt. This fight has just enough risk to sell Garbrandt against a fighter who has been among the top 10 or so bantamweights for the past six years. Mizugaki offers both excitement for the fans and potentially another name for Garbrandt’s growing resume. The Japanese bantamweight is not too far removed from a five-fight winning streak that featured wins over Caraway, Francisco Rivera and Erik Perez. The streak came crashing down when the aforementioned champion Cruz returned to the Octagon for the first time in three years. That loss doesn’t look so bad after Cruz took the title from Dillashaw in January and defended it against Urijah Faber in June. Mizugaki was submitted for only the second time in his career in his next outing against the aforementioned Sterling. The 32-year-old did get back on track in his most recent outing, a decision win over George Roop in September 2015.

Garbrandt put his boxing skills on display in his last outing against the formerly unbeaten Almeida. The 25-year-old Team Alpha Male prospect ended the Brazilian’s 21-fight winning streak with a first-round knockout in May. The win was Garbrandt’s first top-10 win and the biggest of his career. Mizugaki has a stronger resume than Almeida and has been around the UFC and WEC for far longer. A win over the returning Mizugaki could be the showcase fight UFC matchmaker Sean Shelby was looking for after Garbrandt’s coming-out party in May.

Since joining the WEC, Mizugaki has just one win when he opened as the betting underdog. He is more than a five-to-one favorite heading into this bout with Garbrandt. The Californian throws his hands with bad intentions. Garbrandt has finished eight of his nine wins by knockout, and Mizugaki isn’t exactly invincible when his chin is touched. Mizugaki has been dropped in many of his past fights, but oddly enough, only two men — Cruz and Kenji Osawa, all the way back in 2006 when Shooto still employed the knockdown rule — have finished the 11-year veteran. Garbrandt definitely has more steam on his punches than Osawa and Cruz. Even if Garbrandt doesn’t get the finish, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn’t get the win.




Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Aittama: To continue on my theme of the day: someone’s getting knocked out. South Korean gunslinger Hyun Gyu Lim will go blow for blow with Octagon newcomer Mike Perry.

Lim hasn’t been inside of a cage since he fought and lost to top-10 welterweight Neil Magny at UFC Fight Night 66 in May 2015. “Ace” showcased his powerful punches and knees in his three Octagon wins which ended in knockouts. Lim had setbacks in exciting fights with former Strikeforce welterweight champion Tarec Saffiedine and Neil Magny. The tall and lengthy fighter puts his chin on the line in order to put his opponents away during wild exchanges.

If you’re looking for a single fight on this card that could be a potential all-out brawl, this is it. Lim was originally slated to face Sultan Aliev before a wrist injury forced Aliev off the fight card. Undefeated “Platinum” Perry brings seven knockout wins in his seven professional fights. Six of those seven knockouts have come in the first round.

This fight makes for a solid addition to the pay-per-view lineup. Many fans won’t recognize either fighter going into the bout, but they won’t forget either man after they leave it all in the Octagon on Saturday night.


Huntemann: The strawweight bout between Randa Markos and Cortney Casey could be sneaky good to watch, if you know what to pay attention to.

Both fighters are coming off impressive victories, particularly Casey, who knocked out Cristina Stanciu in the first round last month. Markos is 2-2 in the UFC, but her two losses came to former title contender Jessica Penne in a closely contested bout and in a fight that went the distance with the probable next title contender, Karolina Kowalkiewicz.

Since Markos moved her training to the Tristar Gym in Montreal, she’s experienced immediate dividends with improved striking. In Casey’s last fight and when she faced Joanne Calderwood, “Cast Iron” demonstrated that she isn’t afraid to throw down. If you like crisp, technical striking and know it when you see it, you’ll enjoy this fight.





Aittama’s Picks

Diaz
Johnson
Cerrone
Lim
Means
Garbrandt
Pennington
Lobov
Markos
Larkin
Covington
Vettori


Huntemann’s Picks

Diaz
Teixeira
Cerrone
Lim
Means
Garbrandt
Pennington
Avila
Casey
Magny
Covington
Uda
 

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UFC 202 Fight Card Predictions
from Ricky Rothstein - Sports Interaction




Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz

Prediction: McGregor by KO, TKO or disqualification at +130

McGregor was the featherweight champion and considered by many the best pound-for-pound MMA fighter alive when he took on Diaz at welterweight at UFC 196 in March. McGregor was a sizable betting favourite but lost by second-round rear-naked choke submission. Diaz took the fight on 11 days’ notice after McGregor’s original opponent, Rafael dos Anjos, had to withdraw because of a broken foot. McGregor was looking to become the first UFC fighter to hold titles in multiple weight classes.

The non-title fight with Diaz was contested at 170 pounds because Diaz had so little time to make weight. Originally, McGregor was attempting to move to the 155-pound division to fight dos Anjos for the lightweight title. McGregor kept the featherweight title despite that loss but has since been stripped of it with Jose Aldo, whom McGregor beat for that crown, the interim champion. The loss to Diaz snapped a 15-fight winning streak for McGregor, who said he was perhaps unprepared for that big step up in weight class and against a bigger man. All three of McGregor’s losses have been by submission.



Anthony Johnson vs. Glover Teixiera

Prediction: Johnson by TKO

Johnson is the No. 1 contender in the light heavyweight division and Teixeira is No. 2. The winner will get a shot at light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier. The 32-year-old Johnson, an American, enters on a two-fight winning streak. He was last in the Octagon in January and beat Ryan Bader by first-round knockout (punches). A total of 15 of his 21 victories have been by KO or TKO. Johnson’s last loss was to Cormier at UFC 187 in May of last year.

Teixeira, a 36-year-old Brazilian, has won three fights in a row. He was last in the Octagon in April and took out former champion Rashad Evans by first-round knockout (punches). Exactly 15 of Teixeira’s wins also have come by KO or TKO. This 205-pound fight was supposed to take place on July 23 but was postponed when Johnson was forced to pull out because of a family matter.



Rick Story vs. Donald Cerrone

Prediction: Cerrone by submission

Story, a 31-year-old American, is on a three-fight winning streak since a loss to Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 171 in March 2014. Story last fought in May and beat Tarec Saffiedine by unanimous decision. The UFC ranks Story as the No. 9 welterweight.

Cerrone, a 33-year-old American, is ranked as the No. 14 welterweight and also No. 6 lightweight. He last fought in June, beating Patrick Cote by third-round TKO (punches). Most of Cerrone’s wins — 16 of them — are by submission and that’s why I like him here via that route.



Hyun Gyu Lim vs. Mike Perry

Prediction: Perry in an upset by TKO/KO

Lim, a 31-year-old from South Korea, enters off a loss to Neil Magny at UFC Fight Night 66 in May 2015 by second-round TKO (punches). Lim was originally to fight Sultan Aliev here, but he had to pull out with a wrist injury.

This will be the UFC debut for the 24-year-old Perry, an American. He last fought in May this year and beat David Mundell by second-round knockout in the Battleground organization. All six of Perry’s wins are by KO or TKO. Four of his fights ended in the first round.



Tim Means vs. Sabah Homasi

Prediction: Means by submission

Means, a 32-year-old American, last fought in December 2015 and beat John Howard by second-round knockout (punches). Means was set to fight Cerrone at UFC Fight Night 83 in February but was removed from that after receiving a potential USADA anti-doping policy violation. He served a six-month suspension. Then Means’ original opponent at UFC 202 was to be Sean Strickland, but he had to withdraw due to injury.

Homasi, a 27-year-old American, make his UFC debut. He fought on Aug. 5 and beat Jorge Patino in a Titan FC 40 bout. Homasi is an alum of The Ultimate Fighter 21 and obviously took this on short notice.
 

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