UFC 202: Underdog Picks
from Stephie Haynes - draftkings
Colby Covington $11,300 / Max Griffin $8,100
Colby Covington is a very good prospect with an excellent wrestling base. He trains with ATT, and has been working to improve the other aspects of his skillset. He looked good against an aging Mike Pyle, but was submitted in less than 90 seconds by TUF alum, Warlley Alves.
Max Griffin is a seasoned regional fighter with a solid record over names like David Mitchell, Waachim Spiritwolf, Fernando Gonzalez and Ricky Legere. He’s a capable wrestler, but his real weapon is powerful, crisp striking. He fights out of MMA Gold and Marinoble’s Martial Arts in California and has a black belt in Bok Fu under Dave Marinoble. I’m pretty confident that Griffin’s power will be the key here, as long as he can defend the inevitable attempts at smothering that will come from Colby.
Max Griffin via TKO
Elizabeth Phillips $10,200 / Raquel Pennington $9,200
Elizabeth Phillips is a tough fighter, but lacks what it takes to find any real success at the UFC level. She is 1-2 in the promotion, with her only win being over Jessamyn Duke. She trains in Spokane Washington at SikJitsu with Julianna Pena, Mike Chiesa and Sam Sicilia, but hasn’t been able to get her UFC tenure on track as her teammates have.
Raquel Pennington is a seasoned vet with a ton of amateur, exhibition and pro fights under her belt. She holds impressive wins over Sarah Moras, Jessamyn Duke, Roxanne Modafferi, Ashlee Evans-Smith, Jessica Andrade, Bethe Correia and current Invicta bantamweight champ, Tonya Evinger. She’s a strong grappler and has very good standup to complement it. She’s gritty and durable and is an opportunist that makes the most of every opening. You could close your eyes, throw a dart and land on any facet of her skillset and call it a key to victory. She’s that good.
Raquel Pennington via Decision
Donald Cerrone $10,000 / Rick Story $9,400
Cerrone is an exceptional fighter who’s just made the jump up to welterweight over the last six months. He’s been successful in his first two outings against athletes outside the Top 15. He’s an excellent grappler and has beautiful technical striking. Donald is a naturally gifted athlete, and according to his coach, Greg Jackson, he learns at an accelerated rate, and masters techniques quickly, as if he were born knowing them. All that said, well-placed body shots and strong wrestlers are his kryptonite, and with the step up to a Number 9 ranked contender, this fight will be a real test for him.
Story is a sturdy, powerful wrestler, and he packs a good wallop, even if we don’t see it that often. He’s on a three fight winning streak, one of which is to Icelandic grappling ace, Gunnar Nelson. His grind is off the charts, and he has just the type of stifling pressure and improved clinch game that can end up being very problematic for Cerrone. His striking has always been good, but he seems to have really gotten sharper since his return. One thing is certain, this will be a great fight.
Rick Story via Decision
Conor McGregor $10,400 / Nate Diaz $9,200
Conor is just not built for welterweight. That’s the biggest thing to note here. He’s got great, unorthodox striking, and he uses angles and explosion so well. His footwork is beautiful, but his head movement needs more work, as Nate was able to ring his bell a good bit in their first outing. His ground game and defensive skills are good, but against Nate Diaz…well, see fight number one.
While conditioning was a real factor in his loss the first time, I don’t think it will be in this one. He’s a very intelligent fighter looking to get retribution, and let’s not forget, he’ll have a full fight camp targeted exclusively for Diaz. I think we’ll see a very different game plan from Conor, but again, I don’t think it will be enough to take home the W.
Nate has the body type to float seamlessly between lightweight and welterweight, and carries a considerable size advantage over Mystic Mac. He will also have the advantage of a full camp, and his conditioning, which has never been an issue, will no doubt be on point this time around, as well. Nate has excellent striking and when he turns the dial up to 11, you get spectacular performances like his fight with Donald Cerrone. If you want to see a real masterpiece display of striking, watch that fight.
His ground game is just as beefy as his striking. Scratch that. His ground game is better than his striking. He’s great in scrambles and his transitions are fluid and effortless. If he gets Conor’s back and sinks those hooks in…well, see fight number one.
I don’t think this is going to be over as fast as the first one. This fight is going to be a real scrap, with both fighters likely tasting the canvas at some point, and the finish coming late in the 4th or early in the 5th. Remember, I predicted Nate would win by submission the first time, too.
Another bold prediction: This bout will take fight of the night honors.
Nate Diaz via Submission
from Stephie Haynes - draftkings
Colby Covington $11,300 / Max Griffin $8,100
Colby Covington is a very good prospect with an excellent wrestling base. He trains with ATT, and has been working to improve the other aspects of his skillset. He looked good against an aging Mike Pyle, but was submitted in less than 90 seconds by TUF alum, Warlley Alves.
Max Griffin is a seasoned regional fighter with a solid record over names like David Mitchell, Waachim Spiritwolf, Fernando Gonzalez and Ricky Legere. He’s a capable wrestler, but his real weapon is powerful, crisp striking. He fights out of MMA Gold and Marinoble’s Martial Arts in California and has a black belt in Bok Fu under Dave Marinoble. I’m pretty confident that Griffin’s power will be the key here, as long as he can defend the inevitable attempts at smothering that will come from Colby.
Max Griffin via TKO
Elizabeth Phillips $10,200 / Raquel Pennington $9,200
Elizabeth Phillips is a tough fighter, but lacks what it takes to find any real success at the UFC level. She is 1-2 in the promotion, with her only win being over Jessamyn Duke. She trains in Spokane Washington at SikJitsu with Julianna Pena, Mike Chiesa and Sam Sicilia, but hasn’t been able to get her UFC tenure on track as her teammates have.
Raquel Pennington is a seasoned vet with a ton of amateur, exhibition and pro fights under her belt. She holds impressive wins over Sarah Moras, Jessamyn Duke, Roxanne Modafferi, Ashlee Evans-Smith, Jessica Andrade, Bethe Correia and current Invicta bantamweight champ, Tonya Evinger. She’s a strong grappler and has very good standup to complement it. She’s gritty and durable and is an opportunist that makes the most of every opening. You could close your eyes, throw a dart and land on any facet of her skillset and call it a key to victory. She’s that good.
Raquel Pennington via Decision
Donald Cerrone $10,000 / Rick Story $9,400
Cerrone is an exceptional fighter who’s just made the jump up to welterweight over the last six months. He’s been successful in his first two outings against athletes outside the Top 15. He’s an excellent grappler and has beautiful technical striking. Donald is a naturally gifted athlete, and according to his coach, Greg Jackson, he learns at an accelerated rate, and masters techniques quickly, as if he were born knowing them. All that said, well-placed body shots and strong wrestlers are his kryptonite, and with the step up to a Number 9 ranked contender, this fight will be a real test for him.
Story is a sturdy, powerful wrestler, and he packs a good wallop, even if we don’t see it that often. He’s on a three fight winning streak, one of which is to Icelandic grappling ace, Gunnar Nelson. His grind is off the charts, and he has just the type of stifling pressure and improved clinch game that can end up being very problematic for Cerrone. His striking has always been good, but he seems to have really gotten sharper since his return. One thing is certain, this will be a great fight.
Rick Story via Decision
Conor McGregor $10,400 / Nate Diaz $9,200
Conor is just not built for welterweight. That’s the biggest thing to note here. He’s got great, unorthodox striking, and he uses angles and explosion so well. His footwork is beautiful, but his head movement needs more work, as Nate was able to ring his bell a good bit in their first outing. His ground game and defensive skills are good, but against Nate Diaz…well, see fight number one.
While conditioning was a real factor in his loss the first time, I don’t think it will be in this one. He’s a very intelligent fighter looking to get retribution, and let’s not forget, he’ll have a full fight camp targeted exclusively for Diaz. I think we’ll see a very different game plan from Conor, but again, I don’t think it will be enough to take home the W.
Nate has the body type to float seamlessly between lightweight and welterweight, and carries a considerable size advantage over Mystic Mac. He will also have the advantage of a full camp, and his conditioning, which has never been an issue, will no doubt be on point this time around, as well. Nate has excellent striking and when he turns the dial up to 11, you get spectacular performances like his fight with Donald Cerrone. If you want to see a real masterpiece display of striking, watch that fight.
His ground game is just as beefy as his striking. Scratch that. His ground game is better than his striking. He’s great in scrambles and his transitions are fluid and effortless. If he gets Conor’s back and sinks those hooks in…well, see fight number one.
I don’t think this is going to be over as fast as the first one. This fight is going to be a real scrap, with both fighters likely tasting the canvas at some point, and the finish coming late in the 4th or early in the 5th. Remember, I predicted Nate would win by submission the first time, too.
Another bold prediction: This bout will take fight of the night honors.
Nate Diaz via Submission
UFC 202 Newcomer Breakdown: Mike Perry
Prior to each UFC card, Jay Primetown takes a close look at debuting fighters. In the latest installment, we look at newcomer Mike Perry as he takes on South Korea power puncher Hyun Gyu Lim at UFC 202 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Mike Perry
Hometown: Altamonte Springs, Florida
Age: 24
Height: 6’0”
Reach:
Weight Class: Welterweight
Camp: Team Sparta
Career Record: 6-0
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: None
Background
A Florida based welterweight, Perry is a relative novice to MMA having no prior experience to martial arts when he began fighting professionally two years ago. Perry has finished all six of his opponents by strikes having never seen a third round in his career.
Strengths
•Good athlete
•One punch knockout power
•Use a good amount of kicks in his attack
Weaknesses
•Relies too much on physical gifts as opposed to technique
•Poor footwork
•Needs to increase volume
•Questionable chin
Match-up against Hyun Gyu Lim
The second bout up on the UFC 202 PPV telecast is what should be an action packed contest between Hyun Gyu Lim and promotional newcomer Mike Perry. Both fighters are aggressive and have big time finishing power. Lim certainly has a significant size advantage in this one with a massive 77 inch reach. Perry has won several of his fights by landing a counter shot to finish his opponent. It’s likely Perry will need to do that to win this fight. Lim’s size and impressive out (over 5 significant strikes per minute) will cause trouble for Perry from the onset. As both fighters have knockout power, this fight will come down to who can land the first big shot. With Lim’s high level of output, he’ll have significantly more chances to put this fight away. As opposed to betting on a side, the better play here is the total. Neither guy has a great chin, but have solid knockout power. The total is lined at 1.5 rounds and deservedly so. I don’t expect this fight to see a second round with a finish happening pretty quickly in this bout. Under 1.5 rounds at -115 is one of my favorite bets on the board for UFC 202.
UFC Ceiling
Mike Perry is a fighter with very limited MMA experience. Physically he reminds me a bit of Jake Ellenberger; a muscular welterweight with above average explosion and knockout power. Outside of that, he offers very little in terms of wrestling and grappling ability. If he’s going to be able to stick around in the UFC, he’s going to need to add some additional skills to his skill set. The better fighters in the division will be able to avoid his punching prowess and will either control him at range or take him to the mat.
Prior to each UFC card, Jay Primetown takes a close look at debuting fighters. In the latest installment, we look at newcomer Mike Perry as he takes on South Korea power puncher Hyun Gyu Lim at UFC 202 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Mike Perry
Hometown: Altamonte Springs, Florida
Age: 24
Height: 6’0”
Reach:
Weight Class: Welterweight
Camp: Team Sparta
Career Record: 6-0
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: None
Background
A Florida based welterweight, Perry is a relative novice to MMA having no prior experience to martial arts when he began fighting professionally two years ago. Perry has finished all six of his opponents by strikes having never seen a third round in his career.
Strengths
•Good athlete
•One punch knockout power
•Use a good amount of kicks in his attack
Weaknesses
•Relies too much on physical gifts as opposed to technique
•Poor footwork
•Needs to increase volume
•Questionable chin
Match-up against Hyun Gyu Lim
The second bout up on the UFC 202 PPV telecast is what should be an action packed contest between Hyun Gyu Lim and promotional newcomer Mike Perry. Both fighters are aggressive and have big time finishing power. Lim certainly has a significant size advantage in this one with a massive 77 inch reach. Perry has won several of his fights by landing a counter shot to finish his opponent. It’s likely Perry will need to do that to win this fight. Lim’s size and impressive out (over 5 significant strikes per minute) will cause trouble for Perry from the onset. As both fighters have knockout power, this fight will come down to who can land the first big shot. With Lim’s high level of output, he’ll have significantly more chances to put this fight away. As opposed to betting on a side, the better play here is the total. Neither guy has a great chin, but have solid knockout power. The total is lined at 1.5 rounds and deservedly so. I don’t expect this fight to see a second round with a finish happening pretty quickly in this bout. Under 1.5 rounds at -115 is one of my favorite bets on the board for UFC 202.
UFC Ceiling
Mike Perry is a fighter with very limited MMA experience. Physically he reminds me a bit of Jake Ellenberger; a muscular welterweight with above average explosion and knockout power. Outside of that, he offers very little in terms of wrestling and grappling ability. If he’s going to be able to stick around in the UFC, he’s going to need to add some additional skills to his skill set. The better fighters in the division will be able to avoid his punching prowess and will either control him at range or take him to the mat.
Fights to Avoid Betting for UFC 202
from MMA Odds Breaker
Welterweight bout: Hyun Gyu Lim (-275) vs Mike Perry (+235)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this 170-pound scrap is closer than the betting odds currently indiciate, and at these odds, I see it as a “dog or pass” situation in which I ultimately opt to take the pass. There are too many question marks currently surrounding Perry heading into his Octagon debut, so I couldn’t confidently back him. I couldn’t confidently go against him, either, and certainly not at a juicy -275. Especially considering the fact that he has very much been a one round fighter in his UFC tenure. He only has enough gas for 1.5 rounds, and if he fails to earn a finish, he puts himself at high risk of being finished late or losing a decision. If you’re riding with the dog on this one, I can’t blame you, but I think this is a fight that is worth staying away from. Avoid this one at the sportsbooks come Saturday night.
Gabe’s Call: Lim by T/KO (strikes, 1:48 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
Featherweight bout: Artem Lobov (-110) vs Chris Avila (-110)
Gabe’s Thoughts: If you can trust Lobov enough to back him, then you must knoow something I don’t. I don’t believe he is a UFC-caliber featherweight at all, and win or lose, I don’t think he has much of a future in the division, despite all the breaks he has been getting because he is McGregor’s friend. Realistically, he should have been released following his last poor performance, a unanimous decision loss to Alex White; an opponent Lobov personally claimed the UFC was giving him so he could get an easy knockout. It stylistically was a match-up he was supposed to win and he failed, yet he was not released and gets to fight another day. Having the worst UFC record at 11-12, I think Lobov is a fighter that should be faded at the sportsbooks. However, I think Avila is too green and there are currently too many question marks surrounding him for me to confidently take him at coin-flip odds. If he was a 2-to-1 underdog, I would have taken the gamble, but at these odds, I don’t think it’s worth it. I think it is best to sit back and see how this one plays out. Avoid.
Gabe’s Call: Avila by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
Welterweight bout: Colby Covington (-300) vs Max Griffin (+250)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this 170-pound affair is closer than the betting odds currently suggest. I see this as another “dog or pass” situation, and again, I am opting to take a pass with this one. Griffin has potential and is capable of winning this fight, so I can’t take Covington at -300. The +250 on Griffin is a bit enticing and I kept staring at it for a while, but I just couldn’t get myself to pull the trigger on it. I see some value there, but I suppose it isn’t enough to get me on the train. I can’t blame anyone for taking a stab on the dog here, but I think it would serve best to stay away from this one on Saturday. I say avoid.
Gabe’s Call: Covington by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
from MMA Odds Breaker
Welterweight bout: Hyun Gyu Lim (-275) vs Mike Perry (+235)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this 170-pound scrap is closer than the betting odds currently indiciate, and at these odds, I see it as a “dog or pass” situation in which I ultimately opt to take the pass. There are too many question marks currently surrounding Perry heading into his Octagon debut, so I couldn’t confidently back him. I couldn’t confidently go against him, either, and certainly not at a juicy -275. Especially considering the fact that he has very much been a one round fighter in his UFC tenure. He only has enough gas for 1.5 rounds, and if he fails to earn a finish, he puts himself at high risk of being finished late or losing a decision. If you’re riding with the dog on this one, I can’t blame you, but I think this is a fight that is worth staying away from. Avoid this one at the sportsbooks come Saturday night.
Gabe’s Call: Lim by T/KO (strikes, 1:48 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
Featherweight bout: Artem Lobov (-110) vs Chris Avila (-110)
Gabe’s Thoughts: If you can trust Lobov enough to back him, then you must knoow something I don’t. I don’t believe he is a UFC-caliber featherweight at all, and win or lose, I don’t think he has much of a future in the division, despite all the breaks he has been getting because he is McGregor’s friend. Realistically, he should have been released following his last poor performance, a unanimous decision loss to Alex White; an opponent Lobov personally claimed the UFC was giving him so he could get an easy knockout. It stylistically was a match-up he was supposed to win and he failed, yet he was not released and gets to fight another day. Having the worst UFC record at 11-12, I think Lobov is a fighter that should be faded at the sportsbooks. However, I think Avila is too green and there are currently too many question marks surrounding him for me to confidently take him at coin-flip odds. If he was a 2-to-1 underdog, I would have taken the gamble, but at these odds, I don’t think it’s worth it. I think it is best to sit back and see how this one plays out. Avoid.
Gabe’s Call: Avila by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
Welterweight bout: Colby Covington (-300) vs Max Griffin (+250)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this 170-pound affair is closer than the betting odds currently suggest. I see this as another “dog or pass” situation, and again, I am opting to take a pass with this one. Griffin has potential and is capable of winning this fight, so I can’t take Covington at -300. The +250 on Griffin is a bit enticing and I kept staring at it for a while, but I just couldn’t get myself to pull the trigger on it. I see some value there, but I suppose it isn’t enough to get me on the train. I can’t blame anyone for taking a stab on the dog here, but I think it would serve best to stay away from this one on Saturday. I say avoid.
Gabe’s Call: Covington by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
Nate Diaz (19-10)
Staple info:
•Height: 6’0″ Age: 31 Weight: *170 lbs Reach: 76″
•Last Fight: Submission win / Conor McGregor (3-5-16)
•Camp: Cesar Gracie Fight Team (Stockton, CA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Boxing
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ TUF 5 Winner
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 12 Submission wins
+ 5 KO victories
+ 8 first round finishes
+ Pressure fighter
+ Good cardio & conditioning
+ High volume striker
+ Accurate jab-cross
^ Disrupts timing & tempo
– Lackadaisical leg kick defense
+/-Low hands/head often upright
+ Dangerous transitional grappler
^ Solid submission & choke acumen
+/-Traditionally takes damage
^ Physically durable / recovers well
+/-5-4 against UFC southpaws
Conor McGregor (19-3)
Staple info:
•Height: 5’9″ Age: 28 Weight: *170 lbs Reach: 74″
•Last Fight: Submission loss / Nate Diaz (3-5-16)
•Camp: SBG Ireland (Dublin, IE)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ UFC Featherweight Champion
+ Cage Warriors LW & FW Titles
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ 17 KO victories
+ 13 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Agile & athletic mover
+ Excellent footwork
^ Deceptively dictates distance
+ Diverse kicking attacks
+ Accurate & deadly left cross
+/-Low hands / head often upright
^ Heavily reliant on trunk movement
+ Improved wrestling/counter grappling
^ Urgent get-ups & clinch breaks
+ Underrated grappler
+/-3-1 against career southpaws
Summary:
The main event of UFC 202 features a rematch that stems from UFC 196 as Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor run it back one more time. In a last minute shakeup earlier this March, Nate Diaz stepped in for an injured Rafael Dos Anjos with just 10-days notice. Accepting this stand-in, and even allowing for weight accommodations at welterweight, Conor McGregor would take what was his 1st loss with the organization. With the fallout from this event being equally compelling, Conor McGregor will now have his shot at repaying one of the more memorable upsets of 2016.
The hardest part about breaking down a rematch of this magnitude is the thickly spread narrative that has already been laid out. The common-narrative has went from: “How can Nate win with just 10-days notice?” to “How can Conor win if Nate beat him with just 10-days notice?”. Not that either of these statements are not valid, but I’ll try and steer clear of those reasonings for my pick as I will focus this breakdown on what adjustments we could see from both men.
Although my pick was incorrect when these two first met, many of the things I predicted came to light on both sides of the stanzas. Although many, including myself, called for Conor’s patent left-crosses to coat-tail behind the strike retractions of Diaz, I felt that uppercuts would be the unspoken threat as Conor will dust off those techniques against fellow southpaws. Despite McGregor’s conviction to these left-handed shots off of slipped jabs, it was Nate’s steady grasp of timing down the center lane that helped him take over the contest. Firing jab-cross continuums with the snap of a coiled cobra, Nathan will off-set striking rhythms or, as we saw at UFC 196, disrupt a fighter’s overall approach.
With Conor arguably controlling the fight until the middle of the second round, we saw a distinct example of Nathan’s off-beat offense take effect at the 2:21 mark. Although it looked like a jab-cross combo that Nate has thrown a million times before, he broke the perceived rhythm of McGregor as it caught him mid-motion and off guard. What compounded the effect of the blow was the manner in which Diaz fires his cross. Shifting his rear hip forward to accompany the lunge off his attack, Diaz will attach his cross directly behind his jab for cover as this also cuts down the strike’s delivery time. With the initial jab causing a slight disruption to the senses, Nate’s follow-up cross becomes a game-changer when gone unseen.
That said, the side-effects of Nate’s style remains the same as the uppercut will still be a live threat. Often leaning heavily forward on his approaches, Diaz’s posture off his punches inherently allows him to be available to shorter ranged weapons despite his advantages of height & length. When retracting said strikes, Diaz will heavily lean back and to his left as Josh Thomson most famously capitalized on this by timing a head kick. Conor’s chief corner & coach, John Kavanagh, also picked up on this tendency as he strongly urged his fighter to follow-up his left crosses with right uppercuts to intercept Diaz.
To McGregor’s credit, he did try to follow his corner’s advice as he came out for the second round, but Diaz had seemingly begun to grasp the center striking-lanes as this prevented Conor from a proper setup. With Diaz’s defensive habits causing him consistent damage to his right eye throughout the Stockton native’s career, it is hard to imagine that McGregor will avoid emphasizing his left handed attacks. However, if Conor intends on catching Diaz off guard in the punching department, I suspect a shovel hook from the right side will be the punch that holds the most potential given said tendencies. Regardless, as we saw in their last outing, all will be for not if Conor fails to apply an answer to Nate’s control of the center lane.
Once Diaz establishes a rhythm, it quickly becomes difficult to dissuade him at a distance as we saw McGregor’s more diverse arsenal eventually run out of road against the Stockton slugger. Considering that Conor surprisingly uses minimal jabs and check-hooks as a southpaw, I have a hard time seeing McGregor outdo Diaz down the center striking lanes. Instead, I suspect we will see Conor stick to his original approach in the 1st round by mixing in base-debilitating kicks. However, McGregor may forgo the oblique kicks and instead go with more traditional leg kicks as these have been crucial keys for success in Diaz’s past opponents.
Usually using his kicks to corral his opposition, we seldom see Conor throw leg kicks. Although I am sure that McGregor is capable of being effective with an outside leg kick, I suspect the inside leg kick may make for a more likely culprit given its connectivity to Conor’s arsenal. For example, If Conor’s right shovel hook comes off of his left cross, then by nature McGregor will need something to setup said cross to have success and avoid a repeat of his last performance. The inside leg kick provides a low-risk solution to debasing Diaz and also is a technique that feeds naturally into overhands & crosses ala Dan Henderson. Regardless of the Irishman’s approach, control of the center striking lanes will be the key factor in this fight.
Despite Diaz holding the clear advantages on the floor, I feel that Conor’s ground skills have been underestimated grossly if not written off altogether. Now, I am not going to tell you that McGregor’s game is elite, much less a threat to submit Nate. But what I will say is that there are small intricacies to his grappling techniques that suggest a sober McGregor may be able to stay safe in-close. In Conor’s fights with Holloway & Siver, we saw the Irishman’s diversity on top as he smoothly pressured and passed. Although a knee injury made for a lackadaisical display from his back at UFC 189, McGregor gave us a brief glimpse of his bottom acumen at the end of the 1st round against Diaz as he hit a “Curu Curu” sweep variation.
That said, unless Diaz can once again force McGregor into desperation mode, I do not see Conor carrying any intentions of grappling engagements. Although traditional wrestling shots are all but devoid of Diaz’s game, he does have some craftiness inside the clinch that could see the light of day. The utilization of an over-hook will be a key tell for grappling initiations from Nate. Not only will this setup Nate’s patent Uchi Mata(hip toss), but it will also open up trips and guard pulls should Diaz be so inclined. Deadly and proficient in transition, Nate only needs but a moment to shift the fights momentum. McGregor did a great job in their first outing of avoiding Nate’s over-hook entanglements as he was able to break away from clinches early.
Although I am officially siding with Diaz, I believe that Conor has more options available overall to adjust and win this fight. That said, the key to all of Mcgregor’s paths to victory lies within his ability to maintain the utmost amount of discipline. Against a physical & psychological threat as durable as Diaz, Conor will need to upkeep his focus as Nate will only grow stronger should the Irishman slip. Unless Conor’s power can produce a different outcome on Diaz, he will likely need a safe or near perfect fight to earn a decision. But with only 1-bout reaching the distance in a 22-fight career, we will likely have another do-or-die scenario on our hands. Though I have a strange feeling Conor has something special in store, the Irishman’s reliance on defensive trunk movement may once again get him burned should he not find an answer for Stockton’s fire starter.
Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Diaz – Inside the distance
Staple info:
•Height: 6’0″ Age: 31 Weight: *170 lbs Reach: 76″
•Last Fight: Submission win / Conor McGregor (3-5-16)
•Camp: Cesar Gracie Fight Team (Stockton, CA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Boxing
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ TUF 5 Winner
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 12 Submission wins
+ 5 KO victories
+ 8 first round finishes
+ Pressure fighter
+ Good cardio & conditioning
+ High volume striker
+ Accurate jab-cross
^ Disrupts timing & tempo
– Lackadaisical leg kick defense
+/-Low hands/head often upright
+ Dangerous transitional grappler
^ Solid submission & choke acumen
+/-Traditionally takes damage
^ Physically durable / recovers well
+/-5-4 against UFC southpaws
Conor McGregor (19-3)
Staple info:
•Height: 5’9″ Age: 28 Weight: *170 lbs Reach: 74″
•Last Fight: Submission loss / Nate Diaz (3-5-16)
•Camp: SBG Ireland (Dublin, IE)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ UFC Featherweight Champion
+ Cage Warriors LW & FW Titles
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ 17 KO victories
+ 13 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Agile & athletic mover
+ Excellent footwork
^ Deceptively dictates distance
+ Diverse kicking attacks
+ Accurate & deadly left cross
+/-Low hands / head often upright
^ Heavily reliant on trunk movement
+ Improved wrestling/counter grappling
^ Urgent get-ups & clinch breaks
+ Underrated grappler
+/-3-1 against career southpaws
Summary:
The main event of UFC 202 features a rematch that stems from UFC 196 as Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor run it back one more time. In a last minute shakeup earlier this March, Nate Diaz stepped in for an injured Rafael Dos Anjos with just 10-days notice. Accepting this stand-in, and even allowing for weight accommodations at welterweight, Conor McGregor would take what was his 1st loss with the organization. With the fallout from this event being equally compelling, Conor McGregor will now have his shot at repaying one of the more memorable upsets of 2016.
The hardest part about breaking down a rematch of this magnitude is the thickly spread narrative that has already been laid out. The common-narrative has went from: “How can Nate win with just 10-days notice?” to “How can Conor win if Nate beat him with just 10-days notice?”. Not that either of these statements are not valid, but I’ll try and steer clear of those reasonings for my pick as I will focus this breakdown on what adjustments we could see from both men.
Although my pick was incorrect when these two first met, many of the things I predicted came to light on both sides of the stanzas. Although many, including myself, called for Conor’s patent left-crosses to coat-tail behind the strike retractions of Diaz, I felt that uppercuts would be the unspoken threat as Conor will dust off those techniques against fellow southpaws. Despite McGregor’s conviction to these left-handed shots off of slipped jabs, it was Nate’s steady grasp of timing down the center lane that helped him take over the contest. Firing jab-cross continuums with the snap of a coiled cobra, Nathan will off-set striking rhythms or, as we saw at UFC 196, disrupt a fighter’s overall approach.
With Conor arguably controlling the fight until the middle of the second round, we saw a distinct example of Nathan’s off-beat offense take effect at the 2:21 mark. Although it looked like a jab-cross combo that Nate has thrown a million times before, he broke the perceived rhythm of McGregor as it caught him mid-motion and off guard. What compounded the effect of the blow was the manner in which Diaz fires his cross. Shifting his rear hip forward to accompany the lunge off his attack, Diaz will attach his cross directly behind his jab for cover as this also cuts down the strike’s delivery time. With the initial jab causing a slight disruption to the senses, Nate’s follow-up cross becomes a game-changer when gone unseen.
That said, the side-effects of Nate’s style remains the same as the uppercut will still be a live threat. Often leaning heavily forward on his approaches, Diaz’s posture off his punches inherently allows him to be available to shorter ranged weapons despite his advantages of height & length. When retracting said strikes, Diaz will heavily lean back and to his left as Josh Thomson most famously capitalized on this by timing a head kick. Conor’s chief corner & coach, John Kavanagh, also picked up on this tendency as he strongly urged his fighter to follow-up his left crosses with right uppercuts to intercept Diaz.
To McGregor’s credit, he did try to follow his corner’s advice as he came out for the second round, but Diaz had seemingly begun to grasp the center striking-lanes as this prevented Conor from a proper setup. With Diaz’s defensive habits causing him consistent damage to his right eye throughout the Stockton native’s career, it is hard to imagine that McGregor will avoid emphasizing his left handed attacks. However, if Conor intends on catching Diaz off guard in the punching department, I suspect a shovel hook from the right side will be the punch that holds the most potential given said tendencies. Regardless, as we saw in their last outing, all will be for not if Conor fails to apply an answer to Nate’s control of the center lane.
Once Diaz establishes a rhythm, it quickly becomes difficult to dissuade him at a distance as we saw McGregor’s more diverse arsenal eventually run out of road against the Stockton slugger. Considering that Conor surprisingly uses minimal jabs and check-hooks as a southpaw, I have a hard time seeing McGregor outdo Diaz down the center striking lanes. Instead, I suspect we will see Conor stick to his original approach in the 1st round by mixing in base-debilitating kicks. However, McGregor may forgo the oblique kicks and instead go with more traditional leg kicks as these have been crucial keys for success in Diaz’s past opponents.
Usually using his kicks to corral his opposition, we seldom see Conor throw leg kicks. Although I am sure that McGregor is capable of being effective with an outside leg kick, I suspect the inside leg kick may make for a more likely culprit given its connectivity to Conor’s arsenal. For example, If Conor’s right shovel hook comes off of his left cross, then by nature McGregor will need something to setup said cross to have success and avoid a repeat of his last performance. The inside leg kick provides a low-risk solution to debasing Diaz and also is a technique that feeds naturally into overhands & crosses ala Dan Henderson. Regardless of the Irishman’s approach, control of the center striking lanes will be the key factor in this fight.
Despite Diaz holding the clear advantages on the floor, I feel that Conor’s ground skills have been underestimated grossly if not written off altogether. Now, I am not going to tell you that McGregor’s game is elite, much less a threat to submit Nate. But what I will say is that there are small intricacies to his grappling techniques that suggest a sober McGregor may be able to stay safe in-close. In Conor’s fights with Holloway & Siver, we saw the Irishman’s diversity on top as he smoothly pressured and passed. Although a knee injury made for a lackadaisical display from his back at UFC 189, McGregor gave us a brief glimpse of his bottom acumen at the end of the 1st round against Diaz as he hit a “Curu Curu” sweep variation.
That said, unless Diaz can once again force McGregor into desperation mode, I do not see Conor carrying any intentions of grappling engagements. Although traditional wrestling shots are all but devoid of Diaz’s game, he does have some craftiness inside the clinch that could see the light of day. The utilization of an over-hook will be a key tell for grappling initiations from Nate. Not only will this setup Nate’s patent Uchi Mata(hip toss), but it will also open up trips and guard pulls should Diaz be so inclined. Deadly and proficient in transition, Nate only needs but a moment to shift the fights momentum. McGregor did a great job in their first outing of avoiding Nate’s over-hook entanglements as he was able to break away from clinches early.
Although I am officially siding with Diaz, I believe that Conor has more options available overall to adjust and win this fight. That said, the key to all of Mcgregor’s paths to victory lies within his ability to maintain the utmost amount of discipline. Against a physical & psychological threat as durable as Diaz, Conor will need to upkeep his focus as Nate will only grow stronger should the Irishman slip. Unless Conor’s power can produce a different outcome on Diaz, he will likely need a safe or near perfect fight to earn a decision. But with only 1-bout reaching the distance in a 22-fight career, we will likely have another do-or-die scenario on our hands. Though I have a strange feeling Conor has something special in store, the Irishman’s reliance on defensive trunk movement may once again get him burned should he not find an answer for Stockton’s fire starter.
Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Diaz – Inside the distance
Anthony Johnson (21-5)
Staple info:
•Height: 6’2″ Age: 32 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 78″
•Last Fight: KO win / Ryan Bader (1-30-16)
•Camp: Blackzilians (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Moderate
Supplemental info:
+ JUCO National Wrestling Title
+ Regional MMA Championship
+ 15 KO victories
+ 11 first round finishes
+ KO power
+ Devastating right hand
^ Overhands, uppercuts, & hooks
+ Dangerous left kicks
^ Set up off stance switches
+ Underrated takedown defense (%79)
+ Shown grappling improvements
+ Solid top pressure & positional rides
^ Superb ground striker
– Struggles when pressure fought
^ Gas tank bares watching
Glover Teixeira (25-4)
Staple info:
•Height: 6’2″ Age: 36 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 76″
•Last Fight: KO win / Rashad Evans (4-16-16)
•Camp: Team Teixeira (Danbury, CT)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Moderate
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 16 KO victories
+ 17 first round finishes
+ 6 Submission wins
+ KO Power
+ Solid boxing technique
^ Accurate R. hand-L. hook
+ Good economy of movement
^ Rarely throws self out of position
+ Works well off single-legs
+ Underrated wrestling abilities
+ Improved getup ability/urgency
^ Uses under-hooks or turtles out
– Struggles w/pressure against fence
Summary:
The co-main event in Las Vegas features the top 2 contenders at light-heavyweight as Anthony Johnson takes on Glover Teixeira. Coming off a pair of knockout victories, “Rumble” Johnson will seek to cement himself once again as the number one contender for Daniel Cormier’s belt. Also considered the division’s most dangerous man not long ago, Glover Teixeira will look to earn another title shot should he add to his 3-fight finishing streak.
Starting off on the feet is an interesting battle of pressure-style strikers. Subtly stalking forward in left-to-right plots, Anthony Johnson maintains a state of constant offensive and defensive readiness. Using said left-to-right shifts, Johnson is already set in motion to move defensively one way in order come back offensively the other. These movement principles keep Rumble in balance and translate beautifully to his kicking game. As seen in his fight with Jimi Manuwa, we saw Anthony throw left power kicks as he counterbalanced this attack with hard right hands from the other side.
Although Anthony’s overhand right is seemingly always on the table as a threat, he may find some success with his uppercut in this contest. Even though Teixeira is no stranger to eating his fair share of overhands, I noticed that Glover’s defenses are a bit lackadaisical to uppercuts on the inside. In fact, all four of his opponents previous to Rashad Evans were able to exploit him inside this space(Jones, Davis, OSP, & Cummins). Though Teixeira took these shots with little issue, Johnson’s power is proven and not to be taken lightly. It will also be interesting to see what Johnson’s kicking selections are for this fight, especially given that Glover has a knack for catching body kicks and turning them into takedowns.
As for the Brazilian, Teixeira also maintains a solid economy of movement as he employs a tight and technical boxing game. Wielding a dangerous right-hand of his own, I feel that Glover’s left hook will be the punch to look for in this fight. Often initiating exchanges with his right cross, Teixeira will create chaos that draws out his opposition’s defense and allows for his accurate left-hand to serve as a cleanup hitter. Training Rashad Evans for Teixeira earlier this year, I am sure that Henri Hooft is more than aware of this as he and the rest of the Blackzilians staff ready Rumble for this fight.
That said, Anthony will need to maintain discipline with his hand positioning as his inherent aggression could cost him if he is not careful. Often in the heat of exchanges, Johnson tends to wind up when chambering as well as retract his right-hand low. Given Glover’s looming left hook, these small windows inside the pocket could be crucial pickings for a veteran fighter like Teixeira who shows wherewithal under pressure. With the standing exchanges between these two destroyers feeling like a heavyweight affair, it will be interesting to see if either man employs a ground fight.
With Teixeira obviously having more motive to take this fight to the floor, we will likely have a further gauge of the grappling improvements of Anthony Johnson. A former collegiate wrestler, Anthony has been even harder to take down since improving the balance of his striking. With Anthony’s defense difficult to penetrate on initial shots, Teixeira’s patent single-legs may not be enough as he’ll likely have to chain his attempts for success. Should Glover ground Johnson, his on paper advantages may not be as big as projected. Working with renown catch wrestling coach Neil Melanson, Anthony has shown improvements to his grappling game in recent performances.
From his top pressure to positional rides, Anthony appears to be embracing the part of his game that has plagued him in the past. Although Anthony has the tools to pose problems from the top, I am not so certain how much he will look to initiate grappling exchanges. Possessing a dangerous Guillotine choke threat, Glover is also an underrated wrestler himself. Using under-hooks or fighting hands and turtling out, Glover is relentless in his reversal and get-up attempts. With the grappling back-and-forths being what traditionally tires Rumble, he could get burned if he plays Teixeira’s game for too long, or trapped should he end up on the bottom.
A smooth pressure passer, Glover is a veteran chef when it comes to cooking his opposition underneath him. Methodically(and brutally) using ground strikes, Glover adds fuel to the fire as he force-feeds opponents to turning into head & arm chokes, or catching them with rear-naked-chokes as they turn away. Although I initially came into this fight favoring Anthony Johnson, I feel that this bout is closer than the betting lines reflect. Not only does Teixeira have more than enough tools for the job, but the Brazilian also demonstrates the durability to contest with Johnson as well as the veteran savvy to capitalize where he needs to. That said, bet carefully and enjoy one of the best matchups on the card.
Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Teixeira – Inside the distance
Staple info:
•Height: 6’2″ Age: 32 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 78″
•Last Fight: KO win / Ryan Bader (1-30-16)
•Camp: Blackzilians (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Moderate
Supplemental info:
+ JUCO National Wrestling Title
+ Regional MMA Championship
+ 15 KO victories
+ 11 first round finishes
+ KO power
+ Devastating right hand
^ Overhands, uppercuts, & hooks
+ Dangerous left kicks
^ Set up off stance switches
+ Underrated takedown defense (%79)
+ Shown grappling improvements
+ Solid top pressure & positional rides
^ Superb ground striker
– Struggles when pressure fought
^ Gas tank bares watching
Glover Teixeira (25-4)
Staple info:
•Height: 6’2″ Age: 36 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 76″
•Last Fight: KO win / Rashad Evans (4-16-16)
•Camp: Team Teixeira (Danbury, CT)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Moderate
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 16 KO victories
+ 17 first round finishes
+ 6 Submission wins
+ KO Power
+ Solid boxing technique
^ Accurate R. hand-L. hook
+ Good economy of movement
^ Rarely throws self out of position
+ Works well off single-legs
+ Underrated wrestling abilities
+ Improved getup ability/urgency
^ Uses under-hooks or turtles out
– Struggles w/pressure against fence
Summary:
The co-main event in Las Vegas features the top 2 contenders at light-heavyweight as Anthony Johnson takes on Glover Teixeira. Coming off a pair of knockout victories, “Rumble” Johnson will seek to cement himself once again as the number one contender for Daniel Cormier’s belt. Also considered the division’s most dangerous man not long ago, Glover Teixeira will look to earn another title shot should he add to his 3-fight finishing streak.
Starting off on the feet is an interesting battle of pressure-style strikers. Subtly stalking forward in left-to-right plots, Anthony Johnson maintains a state of constant offensive and defensive readiness. Using said left-to-right shifts, Johnson is already set in motion to move defensively one way in order come back offensively the other. These movement principles keep Rumble in balance and translate beautifully to his kicking game. As seen in his fight with Jimi Manuwa, we saw Anthony throw left power kicks as he counterbalanced this attack with hard right hands from the other side.
Although Anthony’s overhand right is seemingly always on the table as a threat, he may find some success with his uppercut in this contest. Even though Teixeira is no stranger to eating his fair share of overhands, I noticed that Glover’s defenses are a bit lackadaisical to uppercuts on the inside. In fact, all four of his opponents previous to Rashad Evans were able to exploit him inside this space(Jones, Davis, OSP, & Cummins). Though Teixeira took these shots with little issue, Johnson’s power is proven and not to be taken lightly. It will also be interesting to see what Johnson’s kicking selections are for this fight, especially given that Glover has a knack for catching body kicks and turning them into takedowns.
As for the Brazilian, Teixeira also maintains a solid economy of movement as he employs a tight and technical boxing game. Wielding a dangerous right-hand of his own, I feel that Glover’s left hook will be the punch to look for in this fight. Often initiating exchanges with his right cross, Teixeira will create chaos that draws out his opposition’s defense and allows for his accurate left-hand to serve as a cleanup hitter. Training Rashad Evans for Teixeira earlier this year, I am sure that Henri Hooft is more than aware of this as he and the rest of the Blackzilians staff ready Rumble for this fight.
That said, Anthony will need to maintain discipline with his hand positioning as his inherent aggression could cost him if he is not careful. Often in the heat of exchanges, Johnson tends to wind up when chambering as well as retract his right-hand low. Given Glover’s looming left hook, these small windows inside the pocket could be crucial pickings for a veteran fighter like Teixeira who shows wherewithal under pressure. With the standing exchanges between these two destroyers feeling like a heavyweight affair, it will be interesting to see if either man employs a ground fight.
With Teixeira obviously having more motive to take this fight to the floor, we will likely have a further gauge of the grappling improvements of Anthony Johnson. A former collegiate wrestler, Anthony has been even harder to take down since improving the balance of his striking. With Anthony’s defense difficult to penetrate on initial shots, Teixeira’s patent single-legs may not be enough as he’ll likely have to chain his attempts for success. Should Glover ground Johnson, his on paper advantages may not be as big as projected. Working with renown catch wrestling coach Neil Melanson, Anthony has shown improvements to his grappling game in recent performances.
From his top pressure to positional rides, Anthony appears to be embracing the part of his game that has plagued him in the past. Although Anthony has the tools to pose problems from the top, I am not so certain how much he will look to initiate grappling exchanges. Possessing a dangerous Guillotine choke threat, Glover is also an underrated wrestler himself. Using under-hooks or fighting hands and turtling out, Glover is relentless in his reversal and get-up attempts. With the grappling back-and-forths being what traditionally tires Rumble, he could get burned if he plays Teixeira’s game for too long, or trapped should he end up on the bottom.
A smooth pressure passer, Glover is a veteran chef when it comes to cooking his opposition underneath him. Methodically(and brutally) using ground strikes, Glover adds fuel to the fire as he force-feeds opponents to turning into head & arm chokes, or catching them with rear-naked-chokes as they turn away. Although I initially came into this fight favoring Anthony Johnson, I feel that this bout is closer than the betting lines reflect. Not only does Teixeira have more than enough tools for the job, but the Brazilian also demonstrates the durability to contest with Johnson as well as the veteran savvy to capitalize where he needs to. That said, bet carefully and enjoy one of the best matchups on the card.
Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Teixeira – Inside the distance
Rick Story (19-8)
Staple info:
•Height: 5’10” Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 71″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Tarec Saffiedine (5-29-16)
•Camp: Blackzilians (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Collegiate Wrestling Experience
+ 4 KO victories
+ 4 Submission wins
+ 4 First round finishes
+ KO Power
Donald Cerrone (30-7)
Staple info:
•Height: 6’1″ Age: 33 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 73″
•Last Fight: TKO win / Patrick Cote (6-18-16)
•Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Multiple Muay Thai Accolades
+ 28-0 as pro Kickboxer
+ 6 KO victories
+ 16 Submission wins
+ 13 First round finishes
+ KO Power
Summary:
**Full Disclosure**: Due to personal affiliation’s with Rick Story for this fight week, I have opted out of doing my usual in-depth breakdown for this matchup. That said, I stand by my pick as I will loosely list some of my thoughts for this fight below.
As I always say, a durable southpaw who can wrestle can be the most potent style to upset fighters inside the cage. With Donald traditionally struggling with pressure fighters, the styling’s of Story could bring these problems to light. Now fully healthy and operating at 100%, it will be interesting to see more from Rick as this will now be his second fight since his return. Reuniting with an old coach of mine, Neil Melanson, Story has spent this entire camp with the Blackzilians.
Not only will Neil’s catch-wrestling style help Story with his overall grappling, but Neil also specializes in Triangle chokes which happens to be Cerrone’s most potent submission threat. On the feet is where Cowboy should have his biggest on-paper edge, but it is hard to overlook to body onslaught Story brings. An underrated counter and combination puncher, Rick will repeatedly rip lefts to the body with impunity. In similar fashion to the shots that Rafael Dos Anjos landed on Cerrone in their contests, this will be the punch to look out for in this fight.
Usually, this is the part where I tell you that Cerrone’s superior kicking game will be a key to dissuading Story at a distance and winning this fight. However, the wild card for Cowboy comes in the form of Brandon Gibson. A quiet storm in the striking department at Jackson-Wink MMA, Six Gun Gibson has been a crucial and cerebral piece behind the scenes to some of the biggest fighters. Coming more into his own, we saw Cowboy have his 1st camp under the supervision of Gibson as the results were evident against Cote.
In fact, that last fight Cowboy turned in completely flipped the sample size we had on him as he looked like a different fighter within the boxing ranges. Showing slicker head movement than before, Cerrone connected it beautifully in conjunction with counters and combination punches. Assuming that Donald continues with this recent recipe, we may see an even more improved Cowboy in what will be his 22nd fight with the organization. Although a Cerrone win would not surprise me, I feel the intangibles Story brings are equally compelling as I’ll be siding with his on paper attributes to score the upset.
Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Story – Decision
Staple info:
•Height: 5’10” Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 71″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Tarec Saffiedine (5-29-16)
•Camp: Blackzilians (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Collegiate Wrestling Experience
+ 4 KO victories
+ 4 Submission wins
+ 4 First round finishes
+ KO Power
Donald Cerrone (30-7)
Staple info:
•Height: 6’1″ Age: 33 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 73″
•Last Fight: TKO win / Patrick Cote (6-18-16)
•Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Multiple Muay Thai Accolades
+ 28-0 as pro Kickboxer
+ 6 KO victories
+ 16 Submission wins
+ 13 First round finishes
+ KO Power
Summary:
**Full Disclosure**: Due to personal affiliation’s with Rick Story for this fight week, I have opted out of doing my usual in-depth breakdown for this matchup. That said, I stand by my pick as I will loosely list some of my thoughts for this fight below.
As I always say, a durable southpaw who can wrestle can be the most potent style to upset fighters inside the cage. With Donald traditionally struggling with pressure fighters, the styling’s of Story could bring these problems to light. Now fully healthy and operating at 100%, it will be interesting to see more from Rick as this will now be his second fight since his return. Reuniting with an old coach of mine, Neil Melanson, Story has spent this entire camp with the Blackzilians.
Not only will Neil’s catch-wrestling style help Story with his overall grappling, but Neil also specializes in Triangle chokes which happens to be Cerrone’s most potent submission threat. On the feet is where Cowboy should have his biggest on-paper edge, but it is hard to overlook to body onslaught Story brings. An underrated counter and combination puncher, Rick will repeatedly rip lefts to the body with impunity. In similar fashion to the shots that Rafael Dos Anjos landed on Cerrone in their contests, this will be the punch to look out for in this fight.
Usually, this is the part where I tell you that Cerrone’s superior kicking game will be a key to dissuading Story at a distance and winning this fight. However, the wild card for Cowboy comes in the form of Brandon Gibson. A quiet storm in the striking department at Jackson-Wink MMA, Six Gun Gibson has been a crucial and cerebral piece behind the scenes to some of the biggest fighters. Coming more into his own, we saw Cowboy have his 1st camp under the supervision of Gibson as the results were evident against Cote.
In fact, that last fight Cowboy turned in completely flipped the sample size we had on him as he looked like a different fighter within the boxing ranges. Showing slicker head movement than before, Cerrone connected it beautifully in conjunction with counters and combination punches. Assuming that Donald continues with this recent recipe, we may see an even more improved Cowboy in what will be his 22nd fight with the organization. Although a Cerrone win would not surprise me, I feel the intangibles Story brings are equally compelling as I’ll be siding with his on paper attributes to score the upset.
Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Story – Decision
Hyun Gyu Lim (13-5-1)
Staple info:
•Height: 6’2″ Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 79″
•Last Fight: TKO loss / Neil Magny (5-16-15)
•Camp: Korean Top Team (Korea)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 9 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Devastating knees
^ Shuffles & intercepts
+ Improved jab
+ Dangerous hooks
+ Active guard
^ Good leg dexterity
– Keeps/retracts hands low
+/-Aggressive in exchanges
+/-1 fight in 23 months
Mike Perry (6-0)
Staple info:
•Height: 5’10” Age: 24 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: N/A”
•Last Fight: KO win / David Mundell (5-14-16)
•Camp: Team Sparta (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Boxing
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 6 KO victories
+ 4 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Athletic & agile
+ Heavy right hand
^ Uppercuts & overhands
+ Dangerous knees
+ Competent takedown ability
+ Shows good submission defense
+ Scrambles well
+/-Aggressive in exchanges
+/-UFC Debut
+/-Fighting on 2 weeks notice
Summary:
In a potential war at welterweight Hyun Gyu Lim welcomes UFC newcomer Mike Perry. Originally slated to face Sultan Aliev, Hyun Gyu Lim will now meet Mike Perry, an undefeated up-and-comer from the South Florida fight scene. With an injury keeping the Korean Top Team fighter from the Octagon for over a years time, Hyun Gyu Lim will attempt to get back on track.
Although he is amongst the shorter end of the welterweight stable, Perry is deceptively agile and athletic. Utilizing a boxing-based style, Mike Perry will attempt to slip and dip his way inside similarly to a vintage Mike Tyson. Carrying potent one-shot stopping power, Perry will often blast his way inside with overhands as he favors uppercuts & hooks in the pocket. It is in this space where Perry will be the most dangerous in this fight given Lim’s defensive tendencies.
Despite the height and reach advantages Lim carries into most fights, his aggression often causes the Korean to close the distance for his opposition as he eagerly looks to intercept. With a low guard by nature and a tendency to retract strikes even lower, Lim will be playing with fire anytime he lacks discipline inside the pocket. With Lim being no stranger to absorbing right-hands in his fights, I suspect that will be the likely culprit in a Perry victory.
Although most of Perry’s finishes come off of his knees in close, I am not sure how available those shots will be due to height differentials. That said, the renown knees of Hyun Gyu Lim may be more than live in this particular matchup. Utilizing said boxing stance and stylings, Perry will often dip heavily forward and or to his right side. Though this habit allows Perry to slip off the centerline and come back with his noted right-hand, it also puts him directly in-line with Lim’s intercepting knees.
A specialty of the South Korean, Lim will reign down strikes from above as this will often force his foes to come at him from below. Anticipating this, Lim does a spectacular job of shuffling in to land with his left knee. Considering that Perry habitually dips to that same side, I expect that to be the key strike to look for from Lim. Despite neither man wielding a particularly impressive wrestling acumen, an effort from either fighter to get this to the floor wouldn’t surprise me. Although the Korean is the more experienced and diverse submission fighter on paper, Perry shows surprisingly good submission defense from credible threats outside the Octagon.
Perry’s athleticism also translates to his wrestling, as the Floridian appears to be a good scrambler with a natural inclination to get after it. That said, I suspect ground fighting to be a near wash should each man engage soberly. Although I agree that Lim should be the favored fighter, I heavily caution playing him at the current price as this fight is closer than the odds indicate. Although I am siding with South Korean, it is hard to be confident as this is essentially a welterweight war with heavyweight intangibles.
Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Lim – Inside the distance
Staple info:
•Height: 6’2″ Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 79″
•Last Fight: TKO loss / Neil Magny (5-16-15)
•Camp: Korean Top Team (Korea)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 9 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Devastating knees
^ Shuffles & intercepts
+ Improved jab
+ Dangerous hooks
+ Active guard
^ Good leg dexterity
– Keeps/retracts hands low
+/-Aggressive in exchanges
+/-1 fight in 23 months
Mike Perry (6-0)
Staple info:
•Height: 5’10” Age: 24 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: N/A”
•Last Fight: KO win / David Mundell (5-14-16)
•Camp: Team Sparta (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Boxing
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 6 KO victories
+ 4 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Athletic & agile
+ Heavy right hand
^ Uppercuts & overhands
+ Dangerous knees
+ Competent takedown ability
+ Shows good submission defense
+ Scrambles well
+/-Aggressive in exchanges
+/-UFC Debut
+/-Fighting on 2 weeks notice
Summary:
In a potential war at welterweight Hyun Gyu Lim welcomes UFC newcomer Mike Perry. Originally slated to face Sultan Aliev, Hyun Gyu Lim will now meet Mike Perry, an undefeated up-and-comer from the South Florida fight scene. With an injury keeping the Korean Top Team fighter from the Octagon for over a years time, Hyun Gyu Lim will attempt to get back on track.
Although he is amongst the shorter end of the welterweight stable, Perry is deceptively agile and athletic. Utilizing a boxing-based style, Mike Perry will attempt to slip and dip his way inside similarly to a vintage Mike Tyson. Carrying potent one-shot stopping power, Perry will often blast his way inside with overhands as he favors uppercuts & hooks in the pocket. It is in this space where Perry will be the most dangerous in this fight given Lim’s defensive tendencies.
Despite the height and reach advantages Lim carries into most fights, his aggression often causes the Korean to close the distance for his opposition as he eagerly looks to intercept. With a low guard by nature and a tendency to retract strikes even lower, Lim will be playing with fire anytime he lacks discipline inside the pocket. With Lim being no stranger to absorbing right-hands in his fights, I suspect that will be the likely culprit in a Perry victory.
Although most of Perry’s finishes come off of his knees in close, I am not sure how available those shots will be due to height differentials. That said, the renown knees of Hyun Gyu Lim may be more than live in this particular matchup. Utilizing said boxing stance and stylings, Perry will often dip heavily forward and or to his right side. Though this habit allows Perry to slip off the centerline and come back with his noted right-hand, it also puts him directly in-line with Lim’s intercepting knees.
A specialty of the South Korean, Lim will reign down strikes from above as this will often force his foes to come at him from below. Anticipating this, Lim does a spectacular job of shuffling in to land with his left knee. Considering that Perry habitually dips to that same side, I expect that to be the key strike to look for from Lim. Despite neither man wielding a particularly impressive wrestling acumen, an effort from either fighter to get this to the floor wouldn’t surprise me. Although the Korean is the more experienced and diverse submission fighter on paper, Perry shows surprisingly good submission defense from credible threats outside the Octagon.
Perry’s athleticism also translates to his wrestling, as the Floridian appears to be a good scrambler with a natural inclination to get after it. That said, I suspect ground fighting to be a near wash should each man engage soberly. Although I agree that Lim should be the favored fighter, I heavily caution playing him at the current price as this fight is closer than the odds indicate. Although I am siding with South Korean, it is hard to be confident as this is essentially a welterweight war with heavyweight intangibles.
Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Lim – Inside the distance
Tim Means (25-7-1)
Staple info:
•Height: 6’2″ Age: 32 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 75″
•Last Fight: KO win / John Howard (12-10-15)
•Camp: Fit NHB (New Mexico)
•Stance/Striking Style: Switch-stance / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ 17 KO victories
+ 4 Submission wins
+ 13 first round finishes
+ Superb technical striker
^ Good footwork, angles, & diversity
+ Strong volume & pressure
+ Accurate left hand
+ Deadly elbow acumen
+ Underrated grappler
+ Improved wrestling
^ Active getup urgency
+ Good chin/never stopped
Sabah Homasi (11-5)
Staple info:
•Height: 6’0″ Age: 27 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: N/A”
•Last Fight: KO win / Jorge Patino (8-5-16)
•Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ TUF 21 Alum
+ 8 KO victories
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 5 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Physically strong & athletic
^ Moves well on the feet
+ Solid jab
^ Hard cross & hook follow-ups
+ Strong top pressure
^ Good elbows inside the guard
+/-Fighting on 2 weeks notice
+/-UFC Debut
Summary:
Kicking off the main card of UFC 202 is a guaranteed scrap in the welterweight division as Tim Means meets Sabah Homasi. Originally slated to face Sean Strickland, Means does not seem concerned with the late opponent switch as he is hungrier than ever coming off of a brief layoff. Stepping in for the injured Strickland is Sabah Homasi, an American Top Team staple from the TUF 21 season. Coming straight off a victory as recently as August 5th, Homasi was more than happy to make a quick turnaround to debut on the big stage.
An athletic and physical force bred by American Top Team, Sabah shows the well-rounded game you would suspect. Though demonstrating a competent wrestling ability, Homasi prefers to make his money on the feet. Showing solid footwork & head movement, Sabah gauges the distance well as he works behind his jab. Wielding hard hook & cross follow-ups, Homasi has more than enough skill and power to pose problems for the veteran Tim Means.
That said, “The Dirty Bird” Tim Means will be the more technical striker by a longshot. Proficient from both stances, Tim primarily operates out of southpaw as I suspect he will do here. Not only does Means have a deeper arsenal to pull from, but the angles in which he creates makes it difficult for opponents to get a beat on the oncoming waves of pressure. Considering that Sabah seems to rely heavily upon the establishment of his jab to get going, the southpaw stylings of Means may pose problems for Homasi in finding his target.
Couple that with Means’ seemingly nonstop pressure and volume, the short notice debutant may have difficulty establishing himself comfortably. If Tim can put Sabah behind the 8-ball early, he will likely force a fight that favors his terms. Although Homasi throws his punches technically with power, Tim demonstrates superb head movement as he is amongst the top-5 at welterweight in regards to striking defense.
Should this contest hit the floor, I expect the action to remain high as both fighters have increased their urgency on top and bottom as of late. With Means showing to struggle with succeeding to his back early in his career, there could be some motive for Sabah to ground Means(especially should he start to get tagged). Should Sabah make his way on top, he shows to execute elbows well from inside the guard. However, Means has made marked improvements to his wrestling, Particularly in his get-up ability.
Showing an urgency to turtle out and stand, Tim has proven increasingly difficulty to control. When Tim is on top, he is a terror as the Fit NHB fighter shows superb catch-like controls. From his excellent top pressure, submissions setups, and strike activity, Tim Means is all offense all the time. In the sport of MMA, you cannot discount anyone as Sabah has the skills to score on the big stage. That said, the division’s dark horse is a tall order as I see it hard for Sabah to make it out of the kitchen without being burned.
Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Means – Inside the distance
Staple info:
•Height: 6’2″ Age: 32 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 75″
•Last Fight: KO win / John Howard (12-10-15)
•Camp: Fit NHB (New Mexico)
•Stance/Striking Style: Switch-stance / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ 17 KO victories
+ 4 Submission wins
+ 13 first round finishes
+ Superb technical striker
^ Good footwork, angles, & diversity
+ Strong volume & pressure
+ Accurate left hand
+ Deadly elbow acumen
+ Underrated grappler
+ Improved wrestling
^ Active getup urgency
+ Good chin/never stopped
Sabah Homasi (11-5)
Staple info:
•Height: 6’0″ Age: 27 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: N/A”
•Last Fight: KO win / Jorge Patino (8-5-16)
•Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ TUF 21 Alum
+ 8 KO victories
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 5 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Physically strong & athletic
^ Moves well on the feet
+ Solid jab
^ Hard cross & hook follow-ups
+ Strong top pressure
^ Good elbows inside the guard
+/-Fighting on 2 weeks notice
+/-UFC Debut
Summary:
Kicking off the main card of UFC 202 is a guaranteed scrap in the welterweight division as Tim Means meets Sabah Homasi. Originally slated to face Sean Strickland, Means does not seem concerned with the late opponent switch as he is hungrier than ever coming off of a brief layoff. Stepping in for the injured Strickland is Sabah Homasi, an American Top Team staple from the TUF 21 season. Coming straight off a victory as recently as August 5th, Homasi was more than happy to make a quick turnaround to debut on the big stage.
An athletic and physical force bred by American Top Team, Sabah shows the well-rounded game you would suspect. Though demonstrating a competent wrestling ability, Homasi prefers to make his money on the feet. Showing solid footwork & head movement, Sabah gauges the distance well as he works behind his jab. Wielding hard hook & cross follow-ups, Homasi has more than enough skill and power to pose problems for the veteran Tim Means.
That said, “The Dirty Bird” Tim Means will be the more technical striker by a longshot. Proficient from both stances, Tim primarily operates out of southpaw as I suspect he will do here. Not only does Means have a deeper arsenal to pull from, but the angles in which he creates makes it difficult for opponents to get a beat on the oncoming waves of pressure. Considering that Sabah seems to rely heavily upon the establishment of his jab to get going, the southpaw stylings of Means may pose problems for Homasi in finding his target.
Couple that with Means’ seemingly nonstop pressure and volume, the short notice debutant may have difficulty establishing himself comfortably. If Tim can put Sabah behind the 8-ball early, he will likely force a fight that favors his terms. Although Homasi throws his punches technically with power, Tim demonstrates superb head movement as he is amongst the top-5 at welterweight in regards to striking defense.
Should this contest hit the floor, I expect the action to remain high as both fighters have increased their urgency on top and bottom as of late. With Means showing to struggle with succeeding to his back early in his career, there could be some motive for Sabah to ground Means(especially should he start to get tagged). Should Sabah make his way on top, he shows to execute elbows well from inside the guard. However, Means has made marked improvements to his wrestling, Particularly in his get-up ability.
Showing an urgency to turtle out and stand, Tim has proven increasingly difficulty to control. When Tim is on top, he is a terror as the Fit NHB fighter shows superb catch-like controls. From his excellent top pressure, submissions setups, and strike activity, Tim Means is all offense all the time. In the sport of MMA, you cannot discount anyone as Sabah has the skills to score on the big stage. That said, the division’s dark horse is a tall order as I see it hard for Sabah to make it out of the kitchen without being burned.
Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Means – Inside the distance
Mixed Martial Analyst
Preliminary Card Predictions:
•Garbrandt def. Mizugaki
•Pennington def. Phillips
•Lobov def. Avila
•Casey def. Markos
•Magny def. Larkin
•Covington def. Griffin
•Vettori def. Uda
Recommended Plays:
Draft-Kings recommended rosters:
Team #1: $50,000.00
-Colby Covington ($11,300.00)
-Tim Means ($10,900.00)
-Cody Garbrandt ($10,300.00)
-Marvin Vettori ($8,800.00)
-Glover Teixeira ($8,700.00)
Team Summary:
For my first roster, I went with the high-tier favorites of Colby Covington, Tim Means, and Cody Garbrandt as my picks. Colby Covington is a solid pick on this card as he welcomes UFC newcomer Max Griffin. Although Griffin’s all-action stylings have earned him titles and attention on the regional circuit, he has not faced nor shown the high-caliber of grappling that will likely take place in this match. Despite Covington being the highest priced pick of the litter, I feel it is for good reason as he has the exact tools & approach for finding a finish here.
For my second pick, I went with Tim Means as I like his chances of finding the finish against Sabah Homasi. For reasons stated in the breakdown above, I feel Tim’s high-pressure striking acumen will force a finish of some sort to come to fruition. For the final favorite, I went with Cody Garbrandt as I believe he is a stylistically difficult matchup for Mizugaki. Carrying the highest average points for this card at 93.375, I feel that Garbrandt is a steal at the $10,300.00 listing price.
For my lower-tier picks, I elected to go with Marvin Vettori and Glover Teixeira. Another prospect from the Italy’s budding MMA scene, Marvin Vettori is coming off his 2nd camp with Kings MMA in California. Fresh off a submission win over BJJ Black Belt & UFC Vet Igor Araujo, I like Vettori’s stylistic chances against Alberto Uda, who is a decade his elder and fighting at welterweight for the 1st time. Finally, I capped off this team with Glover Teixeira for the reasons listed in the breakdown above. Quietly the 3rd highest scorer on the card at 87.35, I feel that the durable Teixeira makes for a solid choice to fill out the bottom end of your roster.
Team #2: $50,000.00
-Colby Covington ($11,300.00)
-Tim Means ($10,900.00)
-Cody Garbrandt ($10,300.00)
-Nate Diaz ($9,200.00)
-Mike Perry ($8,300.00)
Team Summary:
For my second team, I ended up going with the same high-tier picks as my 1st recommended roster. Although there is flexibility with your mid to high-tier choices, I feel Colby Covington, Tim Means, and Cody Garbrandt make solid picks for the reasons stated above. As for my low-tier picks, I elected to go with Nathan Diaz and Mike Perry.
Regardless of what the Vegas odds say, I am of the hardcore majority who feel that Nate Diaz is tough stylistic matchup for Conor McGregor(as I list my reasons in the breakdown above). As a main event participant with the propensity to find a finish, I feel Nate makes for a solid supporting cast member at $9,200.00.
For my final pick, I elected to go with Mike Perry despite officially picking Hyun Gyu Lim. As stated in my breakdown above, this is a welterweight war with heavyweight intangibles. Although Lim is the bigger and more experienced man, Perry’s athleticism and one-shot stopping power will be at play given his Korean opposition’s inherent recklessness. At the low price of $8,300.00, Perry can be used to round out those high priced and heavy hitting lineups.
Props worth looking at (5dimes)
-Colby Covington by Submission: +295 (0.5 Unit)
-Cortney Casey by Decision: +273 (0.5 Unit)
-Tim Means by Submission: +420 (.25 Unit)
Playable favorites for your parlays:
-Tim Means
-Colby Covington
-Raquel Pennington
Fights to avoid:
-Hyun Gyu Lim vs Mike Perry
-Neil Magny vs Lorenz Larkin
-Artem Lobov vs Chris Avila
Preliminary Card Predictions:
•Garbrandt def. Mizugaki
•Pennington def. Phillips
•Lobov def. Avila
•Casey def. Markos
•Magny def. Larkin
•Covington def. Griffin
•Vettori def. Uda
Recommended Plays:
Draft-Kings recommended rosters:
Team #1: $50,000.00
-Colby Covington ($11,300.00)
-Tim Means ($10,900.00)
-Cody Garbrandt ($10,300.00)
-Marvin Vettori ($8,800.00)
-Glover Teixeira ($8,700.00)
Team Summary:
For my first roster, I went with the high-tier favorites of Colby Covington, Tim Means, and Cody Garbrandt as my picks. Colby Covington is a solid pick on this card as he welcomes UFC newcomer Max Griffin. Although Griffin’s all-action stylings have earned him titles and attention on the regional circuit, he has not faced nor shown the high-caliber of grappling that will likely take place in this match. Despite Covington being the highest priced pick of the litter, I feel it is for good reason as he has the exact tools & approach for finding a finish here.
For my second pick, I went with Tim Means as I like his chances of finding the finish against Sabah Homasi. For reasons stated in the breakdown above, I feel Tim’s high-pressure striking acumen will force a finish of some sort to come to fruition. For the final favorite, I went with Cody Garbrandt as I believe he is a stylistically difficult matchup for Mizugaki. Carrying the highest average points for this card at 93.375, I feel that Garbrandt is a steal at the $10,300.00 listing price.
For my lower-tier picks, I elected to go with Marvin Vettori and Glover Teixeira. Another prospect from the Italy’s budding MMA scene, Marvin Vettori is coming off his 2nd camp with Kings MMA in California. Fresh off a submission win over BJJ Black Belt & UFC Vet Igor Araujo, I like Vettori’s stylistic chances against Alberto Uda, who is a decade his elder and fighting at welterweight for the 1st time. Finally, I capped off this team with Glover Teixeira for the reasons listed in the breakdown above. Quietly the 3rd highest scorer on the card at 87.35, I feel that the durable Teixeira makes for a solid choice to fill out the bottom end of your roster.
Team #2: $50,000.00
-Colby Covington ($11,300.00)
-Tim Means ($10,900.00)
-Cody Garbrandt ($10,300.00)
-Nate Diaz ($9,200.00)
-Mike Perry ($8,300.00)
Team Summary:
For my second team, I ended up going with the same high-tier picks as my 1st recommended roster. Although there is flexibility with your mid to high-tier choices, I feel Colby Covington, Tim Means, and Cody Garbrandt make solid picks for the reasons stated above. As for my low-tier picks, I elected to go with Nathan Diaz and Mike Perry.
Regardless of what the Vegas odds say, I am of the hardcore majority who feel that Nate Diaz is tough stylistic matchup for Conor McGregor(as I list my reasons in the breakdown above). As a main event participant with the propensity to find a finish, I feel Nate makes for a solid supporting cast member at $9,200.00.
For my final pick, I elected to go with Mike Perry despite officially picking Hyun Gyu Lim. As stated in my breakdown above, this is a welterweight war with heavyweight intangibles. Although Lim is the bigger and more experienced man, Perry’s athleticism and one-shot stopping power will be at play given his Korean opposition’s inherent recklessness. At the low price of $8,300.00, Perry can be used to round out those high priced and heavy hitting lineups.
Props worth looking at (5dimes)
-Colby Covington by Submission: +295 (0.5 Unit)
-Cortney Casey by Decision: +273 (0.5 Unit)
-Tim Means by Submission: +420 (.25 Unit)
Playable favorites for your parlays:
-Tim Means
-Colby Covington
-Raquel Pennington
Fights to avoid:
-Hyun Gyu Lim vs Mike Perry
-Neil Magny vs Lorenz Larkin
-Artem Lobov vs Chris Avila
UFC 202 predictions: Fight Pass 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 2
By Patrick L. Stumberg - MMA Mania
135 lbs.: Cody Garbrandt vs. Takeya Mizugaki
Three UFC wins -- two of them by knockout -- set up Team Alpha Male’s Cody Garbrandt (9-0) for a blockbuster showdown with fellow top prospect Thomas Almeida in May. "No Love" made the most of his main event appearance with a brutal first-round stoppage of the Muay Thai menace.
Eight of his nine career wins have come by knockout.
Three years of alternating wins and losses came to an end in dramatic fashion when Takeya Mizugaki (21-9-2) rattled off five straight wins from 2012 to 2014. Dominick Cruz and Aljamain Sterling handed him the first consecutive loses of his ZUFFA career afterward, although he did manage to stave off the dreaded three-fight losing streak with a decision over George Roop in Sept. 2015.
He is seven years older than his favored opponent.
I honestly think Garbrandt is going to have more trouble with Mizugaki than one might think. The Japanese veteran has stood up to bombs from the likes of Francisco Rivera and held his own in the wrestling department against Bryan Caraway, while Garbrandt doesn’t have Cruz’s impeccable transition game or Sterling’s overall grappling prowess.
He’s still probably a bit too much for Mizugaki.
Garbrandt’s raw power is a major equalizer and Mizugaki’s boxing isn’t quite crisp enough to fully exploit the lunges of "No Love." The Alpha Male-trained product does enough damage in exchanges to win a competitive decision.
Prediction: Garbrandt via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Raquel Pennington vs. Elizabeth Phillips
Last September, Raquel Pennington (7-5) got revenge for her first UFC loss with a second-round submission of Jessica Andrade in Las Vegas. Her sole 2016 effort saw her edge a chippy battle with Bethe Correia by split decision to raise her UFC record to 4-2.
She has submitted three professional foes overall.
Elizabeth Phillips (5-3) appeared to have earned her first UFC victory against Milana Dudieva in Macau, only to run afoul of the card’s questionably judging. Things went a little more smoothly two Julys ago when she took two rounds from Jessamyn Duke at UFC on FOX 16.
She has knocked out two opponents and submitted another.
Pennington is a fairly tall task for someone who’s coming off a year-long layoff, especially considering the stylistic match up. Both Pennington’s striking and wrestling games outstrip Duke’s and Phillips is heavily reliant on getting her opponent to the mat. Pennington’s defensive grappling and ability to do damage in transition ought to work very well for her.
I expect Pennington to simply out-scrap Phillips, taking advantage of her layoff to wear her down en route to a unanimous decision.
Prediction: Pennington via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Chris Avila vs. Artem Lobov
Chris Avila (5-2) -- an understudy of Cesar Gracie alongside Nate Diaz -- enters UFC on a three-fight win streak since a decision loss in his World Series of Fighting (WSOF) debut. All three of those victories have come by stoppage inside of two rounds.
He is two inches shorter than Artem Lobov (11-12-1), but will have an eight-inch reach advantage.
Team McGregor’s Lobov made the best of his second chance on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 22 by rattling off three straight knockouts. He hasn’t had the same sort of success in UFC itself, dropping decisions to Ryan Hall and Alex White.
He’s been stopped just once in the last five years.
Zane Simon had a solid breakdown of Avila as part of Bloody Elbow’s "Welcome to the UFC" series and I’m inclined to agree with his assessment of Avila as someone trying to be a Diaz without the tools do so. He throws slapping shots reminiscent of Nate’s and can throw a good jab, but he doesn’t respond well to pressure and can’t replicate Nate’s trick of keeping his head just a little farther back than his opponent thinks.
Those issues combine to severely limit the impact his enormous reach advantage will have against Lobov’s brawling.
For all the grief Lobov and his little T-Rex arms get, he’s a durable and experienced veteran with some real pop in his hands. Avila just isn’t far enough along in his career to maintain the discipline needed to keep Lobov off of him. The Russian Hammer hammers his way to his first UFC victory.
Prediction: Lobov def. Avila via first-round technical knockout
135 lbs.: Randa Markos vs. Cortney Casey
Upsets of Tecia Torres and Felice Herrig took Randa Markos (6-3) to TUF 21’s semifinals, where she fell to Rose Namajunas’ vicious run. She’s since gone even (2-2) in the UFC itself, most recently defeating Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger in June.
Half of her wins have come by armbar.
Cortney Casey (5-3) slugged her way to "Fight of the Night" bonuses in her first two appearances, competitive decision losses to Joanne Calderwood and Seo Hee Ham. "Cast Iron" finally got her first UFC win last month, destroying Cristina Stanciu with ground-and-pound halfway through the first round.
She has knocked out three professional opponents.
Casey looked tremendous against Stanciu, using her size and strength extraordinarily well. This certainly has me more inclined to pick her than I would have been prior to that fight, but Markos did very well against another huge bruiser in Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger her last time out. If she can again live up to her potential, she has the tools to take out Casey.
Markos has the power and durability to hold her own on the feet and her wrestling ought to tip the scales. Markos lands enough right hands and spends enough time on top to edge out the decision.
Prediction: Markos via split decision
By Patrick L. Stumberg - MMA Mania
135 lbs.: Cody Garbrandt vs. Takeya Mizugaki
Three UFC wins -- two of them by knockout -- set up Team Alpha Male’s Cody Garbrandt (9-0) for a blockbuster showdown with fellow top prospect Thomas Almeida in May. "No Love" made the most of his main event appearance with a brutal first-round stoppage of the Muay Thai menace.
Eight of his nine career wins have come by knockout.
Three years of alternating wins and losses came to an end in dramatic fashion when Takeya Mizugaki (21-9-2) rattled off five straight wins from 2012 to 2014. Dominick Cruz and Aljamain Sterling handed him the first consecutive loses of his ZUFFA career afterward, although he did manage to stave off the dreaded three-fight losing streak with a decision over George Roop in Sept. 2015.
He is seven years older than his favored opponent.
I honestly think Garbrandt is going to have more trouble with Mizugaki than one might think. The Japanese veteran has stood up to bombs from the likes of Francisco Rivera and held his own in the wrestling department against Bryan Caraway, while Garbrandt doesn’t have Cruz’s impeccable transition game or Sterling’s overall grappling prowess.
He’s still probably a bit too much for Mizugaki.
Garbrandt’s raw power is a major equalizer and Mizugaki’s boxing isn’t quite crisp enough to fully exploit the lunges of "No Love." The Alpha Male-trained product does enough damage in exchanges to win a competitive decision.
Prediction: Garbrandt via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Raquel Pennington vs. Elizabeth Phillips
Last September, Raquel Pennington (7-5) got revenge for her first UFC loss with a second-round submission of Jessica Andrade in Las Vegas. Her sole 2016 effort saw her edge a chippy battle with Bethe Correia by split decision to raise her UFC record to 4-2.
She has submitted three professional foes overall.
Elizabeth Phillips (5-3) appeared to have earned her first UFC victory against Milana Dudieva in Macau, only to run afoul of the card’s questionably judging. Things went a little more smoothly two Julys ago when she took two rounds from Jessamyn Duke at UFC on FOX 16.
She has knocked out two opponents and submitted another.
Pennington is a fairly tall task for someone who’s coming off a year-long layoff, especially considering the stylistic match up. Both Pennington’s striking and wrestling games outstrip Duke’s and Phillips is heavily reliant on getting her opponent to the mat. Pennington’s defensive grappling and ability to do damage in transition ought to work very well for her.
I expect Pennington to simply out-scrap Phillips, taking advantage of her layoff to wear her down en route to a unanimous decision.
Prediction: Pennington via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Chris Avila vs. Artem Lobov
Chris Avila (5-2) -- an understudy of Cesar Gracie alongside Nate Diaz -- enters UFC on a three-fight win streak since a decision loss in his World Series of Fighting (WSOF) debut. All three of those victories have come by stoppage inside of two rounds.
He is two inches shorter than Artem Lobov (11-12-1), but will have an eight-inch reach advantage.
Team McGregor’s Lobov made the best of his second chance on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 22 by rattling off three straight knockouts. He hasn’t had the same sort of success in UFC itself, dropping decisions to Ryan Hall and Alex White.
He’s been stopped just once in the last five years.
Zane Simon had a solid breakdown of Avila as part of Bloody Elbow’s "Welcome to the UFC" series and I’m inclined to agree with his assessment of Avila as someone trying to be a Diaz without the tools do so. He throws slapping shots reminiscent of Nate’s and can throw a good jab, but he doesn’t respond well to pressure and can’t replicate Nate’s trick of keeping his head just a little farther back than his opponent thinks.
Those issues combine to severely limit the impact his enormous reach advantage will have against Lobov’s brawling.
For all the grief Lobov and his little T-Rex arms get, he’s a durable and experienced veteran with some real pop in his hands. Avila just isn’t far enough along in his career to maintain the discipline needed to keep Lobov off of him. The Russian Hammer hammers his way to his first UFC victory.
Prediction: Lobov def. Avila via first-round technical knockout
135 lbs.: Randa Markos vs. Cortney Casey
Upsets of Tecia Torres and Felice Herrig took Randa Markos (6-3) to TUF 21’s semifinals, where she fell to Rose Namajunas’ vicious run. She’s since gone even (2-2) in the UFC itself, most recently defeating Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger in June.
Half of her wins have come by armbar.
Cortney Casey (5-3) slugged her way to "Fight of the Night" bonuses in her first two appearances, competitive decision losses to Joanne Calderwood and Seo Hee Ham. "Cast Iron" finally got her first UFC win last month, destroying Cristina Stanciu with ground-and-pound halfway through the first round.
She has knocked out three professional opponents.
Casey looked tremendous against Stanciu, using her size and strength extraordinarily well. This certainly has me more inclined to pick her than I would have been prior to that fight, but Markos did very well against another huge bruiser in Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger her last time out. If she can again live up to her potential, she has the tools to take out Casey.
Markos has the power and durability to hold her own on the feet and her wrestling ought to tip the scales. Markos lands enough right hands and spends enough time on top to edge out the decision.
Prediction: Markos via split decision
UFC 202: Fight Pass prelims preview
from Dayne Fox - Bloody Elbow
Neil Magny (18-4) vs. Lorenz Larkin (17-5), Welterweight
Pop quiz: who has made more appearances in the Octagon this year? You'd think the notoriously active Magny, but the correct answer is actually Larkin.
Considering Magny took a hell of a beating in his victory over Hector Lombard, it really isn't all that surprising that he was forced to take a lengthy break from the fight game. As busy as he had been the previous two years, it might actually be a good thing for him to have taken a breather. Winner of ten of his last eleven, Magny isn't very far from being able to ask for a title shot without fans s******ing about him being delusional.
Larkin is a bit further off course than Magny from being in title contention, but his record of 3-1 since dropping down to the welterweight division indicates that he isn't one to be ignored. His lone loss since the drop was a tight decision to Albert Tumenov. Though he is taking the bout on short notice, Larkin recognizes that this is his opportunity to make a name for himself by reminding us of why many once considered him to be a future title contender.
Owning a 6'3" frame and an 80" reach, you'd think that Magny would want to stay on the outside and exploit the ridiculous size advantage he possesses over virtually every other welterweight on the roster. While Magny has developed a stiff jab and better use of his length for defensive purposes, his real wheelhouse is in close quarters. Making effective use of a plum clinch, he ravages the body of his opponent by driving his knees into them with devastating effect.
Despite owning an 8" reach disadvantage, Larkin will look to stay on the outside. A bit of a slow starter, Larkin traditionally warms up by flicking out his jab and throwing a number of low leg kicks. Once he has his timing and rhythm down, he explodes with fast combinations into his opponent. What Larkin is most known for is his lightning quick round kicks to the head and body. Used to fighting longer opponents, Larkin uses his crisp footwork to find effective angles in which to outstrike his opposition.
If the fight goes to the ground, it will assuredly be Magny who takes it there as Larkin has exactly one takedown in nine UFC contests. It will be a chore for Magny to get the fight there as Larkin has typically been tough to take down, especially since the drop in weight as he is no longer outsized by a sizeable margin. Magny does have good trips, good back taking skills, and devastating elbows from the top position. However, he doesn't maintain position that well and Larkin is often quick to scramble back to his feet.
The question will be who can exploit the others weakness. Magny's weakness is to strong submission grapplers and Larkin' is in the clinch against larger opponents. Larkin isn't much of a grappler, but Magny sure as hell can pin Larkin against the fence and mitigate Larkin's speed from there. While Larkin does have enough power in his kicks to end Magny's night with one strike, Magny has become much more effective with his defense and has also proven to be one durable SOB. While it should be competitive, I expect Magny to be one step closer to a title shot.
Magny via decision
Colby Covington (9-1) vs. Max Griffin (12-2), Welterweight
From calling out the likes of GSP and Demian Maia at the conclusion of his last contest to welcoming a newcomer in Griffin. Not exactly what Covington had in mind....
There is a reason why Covington didn't get the step up in competition he was hoping to get despite his 4-1 UFC record: he isn't exactly a fighter fans are excited to watch. He isn't quite on the level of a Jared Rosholt where he'll be cut with his next loss, but he won't get the fights that he wants until he can develop a more exciting style.
Griffin punched his ticket to the UFC when he dropped UFC veteran David Mitchell three times within a minute. His first cup of coffee with the UFC came when he was unable to qualify for the TUF 16 house in 2012, falling short to Matt Secor. Even though he has improved a lot since that time, the UFC isn't bringing him in expecting big things as he is already 30. They're hoping that he can become an action-fighter on the lower levels.
Despite throwing a technically sound jab from the outside, Griffin is largely a brawler at heart. He's been able to find success with that due to his above average power and fast hands, swarming his opposition with a flurry of punches. He tends to lead with his chin at those times, but shouldn't be too worried in this contest as Covington isn't much of a counter striker. A plus athlete, Griffin isn't a very technical wrestler either, but he is able to get the takedown based on his physical talents.
Covington is a plus athlete as well in addition to being a very technical wrestler thanks to his collegiate days as an All-American wrestler. Owner of an explosive double-leg and suffocating top game, Covington has developed a reputation as a wet blanket as he doesn't do much other than maintain position once the fight gets to the ground. He's made some strides as a striker -€” witness the spinning backfist he landed on Jonathan Meunier in his last appearance -€” and he looks smooth when he throws, but hasn't found any consistent success in that department thanks to a lack of confidence.
Griffin has a chance as Covington isn't a great defensive fighter on his feet and isn't much of a striking threat. I still have to favor Covington though as his wrestling really is that damned good. Even if he can't finish the takedown, he'll be able to grind out Griffin against the fence with his dirty boxing and knees. Unless Covington has made some huge strides in his striking, expect this to be another dry decision victory for the ATT representative.
Covington via decision
Alberto Uda (9-1) vs. Marvin Vettori (10-2), Welterweight
This is pretty much just filler. Uda is fighting for his job while Vettori is a prospect who is making his UFC debut in the evening's curtain jerker.
Uda was never a blue chip prospect, making his UFC debut at 31 based on the strength of his then undefeated record. Falling short in his debut to Jake Collier, Uda is dropping down to welterweight in hopes of extending his UFC stay beyond this contest as nothing short of a win is likely to do that.
Vettori isn't exactly a blue-chipper himself, but he is worth an extended look while having a higher ceiling than his Brazilian counterpart. The 22-year old Italian participated in each of the first three events of the controversial Venator promotion, including a win over UFC veteran Igor Araujo in his last appearance.
Similar to Neil Magny, Uda's 6'3" frame and 77" reach would make you think that he prefers to stay on the outside. That couldn't be further from the truth. The only consistent strike he throws at range is a front kick, much preferring to take the fight in close range. He does use his height to leverage his devastating knees into the body of his opponent, but that's about the only efficient use of his frame. Uda's other strength is submissions off of his back, which isn't exactly a wise place to hang out. He'd rather finish the fight with his fists if he has the top position rather than go for the submission.
Vettori has a fairly similar game to Uda as he isn't a great fighter from the outside, does his best work in the clinch, and is aggressive looking for submissions. The differences are that Vettori is a far superior athlete while being more comfortable from the top position on the ground. His aggressiveness on the ground has worked against him at times as he'll give up position looking for the finish. His athleticism also makes him appear much smoother on his feet than Uda, but don't let that fool you. Vettori is far from a polished product on the feet.
There isn't a clear-cut favorite in this one. I am concerned about Uda's ability to cut down to 170, something that he has never done before. Will his energy level be up to par? I tend to think it could be a negative for him as he has such a big frame for the weight class. Uda is hardly a good athlete either. Without any confidence, I'm picking the youngster to emerge from his UFC debut a winner.
Vettori via submission of RD3
from Dayne Fox - Bloody Elbow
Neil Magny (18-4) vs. Lorenz Larkin (17-5), Welterweight
Pop quiz: who has made more appearances in the Octagon this year? You'd think the notoriously active Magny, but the correct answer is actually Larkin.
Considering Magny took a hell of a beating in his victory over Hector Lombard, it really isn't all that surprising that he was forced to take a lengthy break from the fight game. As busy as he had been the previous two years, it might actually be a good thing for him to have taken a breather. Winner of ten of his last eleven, Magny isn't very far from being able to ask for a title shot without fans s******ing about him being delusional.
Larkin is a bit further off course than Magny from being in title contention, but his record of 3-1 since dropping down to the welterweight division indicates that he isn't one to be ignored. His lone loss since the drop was a tight decision to Albert Tumenov. Though he is taking the bout on short notice, Larkin recognizes that this is his opportunity to make a name for himself by reminding us of why many once considered him to be a future title contender.
Owning a 6'3" frame and an 80" reach, you'd think that Magny would want to stay on the outside and exploit the ridiculous size advantage he possesses over virtually every other welterweight on the roster. While Magny has developed a stiff jab and better use of his length for defensive purposes, his real wheelhouse is in close quarters. Making effective use of a plum clinch, he ravages the body of his opponent by driving his knees into them with devastating effect.
Despite owning an 8" reach disadvantage, Larkin will look to stay on the outside. A bit of a slow starter, Larkin traditionally warms up by flicking out his jab and throwing a number of low leg kicks. Once he has his timing and rhythm down, he explodes with fast combinations into his opponent. What Larkin is most known for is his lightning quick round kicks to the head and body. Used to fighting longer opponents, Larkin uses his crisp footwork to find effective angles in which to outstrike his opposition.
If the fight goes to the ground, it will assuredly be Magny who takes it there as Larkin has exactly one takedown in nine UFC contests. It will be a chore for Magny to get the fight there as Larkin has typically been tough to take down, especially since the drop in weight as he is no longer outsized by a sizeable margin. Magny does have good trips, good back taking skills, and devastating elbows from the top position. However, he doesn't maintain position that well and Larkin is often quick to scramble back to his feet.
The question will be who can exploit the others weakness. Magny's weakness is to strong submission grapplers and Larkin' is in the clinch against larger opponents. Larkin isn't much of a grappler, but Magny sure as hell can pin Larkin against the fence and mitigate Larkin's speed from there. While Larkin does have enough power in his kicks to end Magny's night with one strike, Magny has become much more effective with his defense and has also proven to be one durable SOB. While it should be competitive, I expect Magny to be one step closer to a title shot.
Magny via decision
Colby Covington (9-1) vs. Max Griffin (12-2), Welterweight
From calling out the likes of GSP and Demian Maia at the conclusion of his last contest to welcoming a newcomer in Griffin. Not exactly what Covington had in mind....
There is a reason why Covington didn't get the step up in competition he was hoping to get despite his 4-1 UFC record: he isn't exactly a fighter fans are excited to watch. He isn't quite on the level of a Jared Rosholt where he'll be cut with his next loss, but he won't get the fights that he wants until he can develop a more exciting style.
Griffin punched his ticket to the UFC when he dropped UFC veteran David Mitchell three times within a minute. His first cup of coffee with the UFC came when he was unable to qualify for the TUF 16 house in 2012, falling short to Matt Secor. Even though he has improved a lot since that time, the UFC isn't bringing him in expecting big things as he is already 30. They're hoping that he can become an action-fighter on the lower levels.
Despite throwing a technically sound jab from the outside, Griffin is largely a brawler at heart. He's been able to find success with that due to his above average power and fast hands, swarming his opposition with a flurry of punches. He tends to lead with his chin at those times, but shouldn't be too worried in this contest as Covington isn't much of a counter striker. A plus athlete, Griffin isn't a very technical wrestler either, but he is able to get the takedown based on his physical talents.
Covington is a plus athlete as well in addition to being a very technical wrestler thanks to his collegiate days as an All-American wrestler. Owner of an explosive double-leg and suffocating top game, Covington has developed a reputation as a wet blanket as he doesn't do much other than maintain position once the fight gets to the ground. He's made some strides as a striker -€” witness the spinning backfist he landed on Jonathan Meunier in his last appearance -€” and he looks smooth when he throws, but hasn't found any consistent success in that department thanks to a lack of confidence.
Griffin has a chance as Covington isn't a great defensive fighter on his feet and isn't much of a striking threat. I still have to favor Covington though as his wrestling really is that damned good. Even if he can't finish the takedown, he'll be able to grind out Griffin against the fence with his dirty boxing and knees. Unless Covington has made some huge strides in his striking, expect this to be another dry decision victory for the ATT representative.
Covington via decision
Alberto Uda (9-1) vs. Marvin Vettori (10-2), Welterweight
This is pretty much just filler. Uda is fighting for his job while Vettori is a prospect who is making his UFC debut in the evening's curtain jerker.
Uda was never a blue chip prospect, making his UFC debut at 31 based on the strength of his then undefeated record. Falling short in his debut to Jake Collier, Uda is dropping down to welterweight in hopes of extending his UFC stay beyond this contest as nothing short of a win is likely to do that.
Vettori isn't exactly a blue-chipper himself, but he is worth an extended look while having a higher ceiling than his Brazilian counterpart. The 22-year old Italian participated in each of the first three events of the controversial Venator promotion, including a win over UFC veteran Igor Araujo in his last appearance.
Similar to Neil Magny, Uda's 6'3" frame and 77" reach would make you think that he prefers to stay on the outside. That couldn't be further from the truth. The only consistent strike he throws at range is a front kick, much preferring to take the fight in close range. He does use his height to leverage his devastating knees into the body of his opponent, but that's about the only efficient use of his frame. Uda's other strength is submissions off of his back, which isn't exactly a wise place to hang out. He'd rather finish the fight with his fists if he has the top position rather than go for the submission.
Vettori has a fairly similar game to Uda as he isn't a great fighter from the outside, does his best work in the clinch, and is aggressive looking for submissions. The differences are that Vettori is a far superior athlete while being more comfortable from the top position on the ground. His aggressiveness on the ground has worked against him at times as he'll give up position looking for the finish. His athleticism also makes him appear much smoother on his feet than Uda, but don't let that fool you. Vettori is far from a polished product on the feet.
There isn't a clear-cut favorite in this one. I am concerned about Uda's ability to cut down to 170, something that he has never done before. Will his energy level be up to par? I tend to think it could be a negative for him as he has such a big frame for the weight class. Uda is hardly a good athlete either. Without any confidence, I'm picking the youngster to emerge from his UFC debut a winner.
Vettori via submission of RD3
UFC 202 - By the Numbers
4
Current ranking of Nate Diaz as a UFC lightweight
196
UFC event where Nate Diaz secured a second round rear naked choke of Conor McGregor in a welterweight bout
77
Significant strikes landed by Diaz against Conor McGregor in less than two full rounds
7.2
Significant strikes landed per minute rate by Diaz against McGregor, UFC average is 2.83
1,044
Significant strikes landed by Diaz inside the Octagon, 4th most in UFC history
238
Significant strikes landed by Diaz en route to a unanimous decision win over Donald Cerrone at UFC 141, most significant strikes landed in a UFC bout
153
Significant strikes landed by Diaz en route to a unanimous decision win over Michael Johnson at UFC on FOX: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2, 4th most landed in a UFC lightweight bout
9
Submissions by Diaz inside the Octagon, 2nd most in UFC history behind Royce Gracie’s 11
4
Of those submissions by Diaz are via guillotine choke, most in UFC history
14
Post-fight awards by Diaz, tied with Joe Lauzon for most in UFC history
7
Fight of the Night awards by Diaz, tied with Frankie Edgar for most in UFC history
5
Submission of the Night awards by Diaz, 2nd most in UFC history behind Joe Lauzon’s 6
4
Current ranking of Conor McGregor on the UFC pound-for-pound list
194
UFC event where “The Notorious” one scored a 13 second knockout of Jose Aldo to win the UFC featherweight championship, fastest finish in UFC title fight history
5:35
Average fight time by McGregor as a UFC featherweight, 2nd fastest in UFC/WEC featherweight history behind Jens Pulver’s 5:26
1.87
Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes of fighting rate by McGregor, 2nd best rate among active UFC fighters behind Todd Duffee's 2.72 and 4th best in UFC history (min. 5fights)
6
Knockdowns by McGregor, 2nd most in UFC/WEC featherweight history behind Jose Aldo’s 8
6
KO/TKOs by McGregor, 2nd most in UFC/WEC featherweight history behind Jose Aldo’s 9
5.53
Significant strikes landed per minute rate by McGregor as a UFC featherweight, best rate in UFC/WEC featherweight history (min. 5 fights)
5.74
Significant strikes landed per minute rate by McGregor inside the Octagon, 7th best in UFC history (min. 5 fights)
5
Performance of the Night awards by McGregor, most in UFC history
1
Current ranking of Anthony Johnson as a UFC light heavyweight
10
KO/TKOs by “Rumble” including Johnson’s most recent first round knockout of Ryan Bader in January, tied for 3rd most in UFC history behind Anderson Silva’s 11 and Vitor Belfort’s 12
4
KO/TKOs by Johnson in under a minute each, UFC record
4
Performance of the Night awards by Johnson, most in UFC light heavyweight history
12
Knockdowns by Johnson, tied for 5th most in UFC history
1.66
Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes of fighting rate by Johnson, 4th best rate among active UFC fighters and 9th best in UFC history (min. 5 fights)
1.65
Significant strikes absorbed per minute rate by Johnson as a UFC light heavyweight, 3rd best rate among active UFC light-heavyweights (min. 5 fights)
2
Current ranking of Glover Teixeira as a UFC light heavyweight
7
Finishes by Teixeira inside the Octagon, most finishes in UFC light heavyweight division since Teixeira made his UFC debut in 2012
3
Submissions by Teixeira, tied for 3rd most submission wins in UFC light heavyweight history
4
KO/TKOs by Teixeira including his most recent first round knockout of Rashad Evans at UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs. Evans
4
Knockdowns by Teixeira and 0 times knocked down
51.7
Takedown accuracy percentage by Teixeira, tied for 3rd best in UFC light heavyweight history (min. 5 fights and 20 att.)
381
Significant strikes landed by Teixeira
38.1
Percentage of those significant strikes Teixeira landed on the ground, 3rd largest proportion in UFC light heavyweight history (min. 5 fights and 350 sig. att.)
4
Current ranking of Nate Diaz as a UFC lightweight
196
UFC event where Nate Diaz secured a second round rear naked choke of Conor McGregor in a welterweight bout
77
Significant strikes landed by Diaz against Conor McGregor in less than two full rounds
7.2
Significant strikes landed per minute rate by Diaz against McGregor, UFC average is 2.83
1,044
Significant strikes landed by Diaz inside the Octagon, 4th most in UFC history
238
Significant strikes landed by Diaz en route to a unanimous decision win over Donald Cerrone at UFC 141, most significant strikes landed in a UFC bout
153
Significant strikes landed by Diaz en route to a unanimous decision win over Michael Johnson at UFC on FOX: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2, 4th most landed in a UFC lightweight bout
9
Submissions by Diaz inside the Octagon, 2nd most in UFC history behind Royce Gracie’s 11
4
Of those submissions by Diaz are via guillotine choke, most in UFC history
14
Post-fight awards by Diaz, tied with Joe Lauzon for most in UFC history
7
Fight of the Night awards by Diaz, tied with Frankie Edgar for most in UFC history
5
Submission of the Night awards by Diaz, 2nd most in UFC history behind Joe Lauzon’s 6
4
Current ranking of Conor McGregor on the UFC pound-for-pound list
194
UFC event where “The Notorious” one scored a 13 second knockout of Jose Aldo to win the UFC featherweight championship, fastest finish in UFC title fight history
5:35
Average fight time by McGregor as a UFC featherweight, 2nd fastest in UFC/WEC featherweight history behind Jens Pulver’s 5:26
1.87
Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes of fighting rate by McGregor, 2nd best rate among active UFC fighters behind Todd Duffee's 2.72 and 4th best in UFC history (min. 5fights)
6
Knockdowns by McGregor, 2nd most in UFC/WEC featherweight history behind Jose Aldo’s 8
6
KO/TKOs by McGregor, 2nd most in UFC/WEC featherweight history behind Jose Aldo’s 9
5.53
Significant strikes landed per minute rate by McGregor as a UFC featherweight, best rate in UFC/WEC featherweight history (min. 5 fights)
5.74
Significant strikes landed per minute rate by McGregor inside the Octagon, 7th best in UFC history (min. 5 fights)
5
Performance of the Night awards by McGregor, most in UFC history
1
Current ranking of Anthony Johnson as a UFC light heavyweight
10
KO/TKOs by “Rumble” including Johnson’s most recent first round knockout of Ryan Bader in January, tied for 3rd most in UFC history behind Anderson Silva’s 11 and Vitor Belfort’s 12
4
KO/TKOs by Johnson in under a minute each, UFC record
4
Performance of the Night awards by Johnson, most in UFC light heavyweight history
12
Knockdowns by Johnson, tied for 5th most in UFC history
1.66
Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes of fighting rate by Johnson, 4th best rate among active UFC fighters and 9th best in UFC history (min. 5 fights)
1.65
Significant strikes absorbed per minute rate by Johnson as a UFC light heavyweight, 3rd best rate among active UFC light-heavyweights (min. 5 fights)
2
Current ranking of Glover Teixeira as a UFC light heavyweight
7
Finishes by Teixeira inside the Octagon, most finishes in UFC light heavyweight division since Teixeira made his UFC debut in 2012
3
Submissions by Teixeira, tied for 3rd most submission wins in UFC light heavyweight history
4
KO/TKOs by Teixeira including his most recent first round knockout of Rashad Evans at UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs. Evans
4
Knockdowns by Teixeira and 0 times knocked down
51.7
Takedown accuracy percentage by Teixeira, tied for 3rd best in UFC light heavyweight history (min. 5 fights and 20 att.)
381
Significant strikes landed by Teixeira
38.1
Percentage of those significant strikes Teixeira landed on the ground, 3rd largest proportion in UFC light heavyweight history (min. 5 fights and 350 sig. att.)
