Tennis Miami - Leviathan

[Leviathan]

I can never seem to have faith in Vliegen, he's one of those players that I can never predict.

It seems like you were right. Very fast win for Nieminen 6-3, 6-1. Even they are two unpredictable players I was still surprised from the result.

Maby Nieminen was pissed because he would have made his way to the second round without playing a game if Federer would have told earlier he is not going to play in this tournament :lolBIG:

 

[Leviathan]

Davydenko wins Melzer 2-1 after Melzer loses his 5-1 tiebreaklead in the first set and Gulbis was great with his first serves and not bad with second serves but maby too green head to handle the tiebreaks, anyway lost his match after two tb. Sorry if anybody followed.

 

[Leviathan]

Some intresting matches tomorrow but one bet now which is 10/10 stake for me. Llodra -156 over Mathieu. Their records on the grass tells almost everything, Lodra is 32-14 when Mathieu is 4-10. Mathieu also is 15-26 against lefties but this includes five matches against Nadal. I think there is no big problems from Llodra's lefthand for Mathieu when they are hitting the ball to each others but Llodra is getting a little edge to serving which is already better for him. Their only meeting is two years ago on the grass which Llodra won in three sets after being a slight dog in the odds. Llodra's biggest problem as a single player has been bad movement, partly the reason why he has more success in the doubles but now it seems that he has gotten more legs or something but definately something has happened and he has taken a big step forward which we are not seeing yet in the odds. Go Llodra.

GL.

 

[Leviathan]

I watched earlier this week that Jo-Wilfried has been amazing winning the last week challenger on the grass. Then I was watching if he plays this week but it seemed like he is not playing, there was only someone called Tsonga who beated Pless easily, how deep that dumbness can sometimes go. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga +407 over Llyeyton Hewitt. Ï watched some Lleyton's matches at French Open and he has more pure will and attitude than skills, even his skills are pretty good too. Now his first match on the grass for some time even his record 29-8 is remarkable but overrated imo. JWT is making a strong return after some injuries, only in one major tournament this year (lost for Roddick 3-1 after two tb) but in his last 25 matches he is 24-1. JWT has now nine straight win on the grass which includes straight set wins over Karlovic and Falla and a three setter win over Guccione. Hewitt should be and is the favourite but against a player who is slightly said in fire and who's odd is what it is I am thinking this as a gift.

Other games I think Mahut has a big price against old man Bjorkman but Bjorkman is a specialist against serve and volley game. Guccione is underrated on the grass imo and Clement has been like a shadow lately so thinking Guccione has a decent odd but not playing him yet. Kendrick playing against Djokovic who has his first match of the season on the grass and Kendrick's price is +630 but not believing Kendrick can win only with his serve, maby a good start for Kendrick but not whole match. Dancevic has a nice price +203 against Tursunov and even Tursunov is grass specialist I would play Frank if his head would not be as weak as his, he has no balls to close the matches and when he starts to lose after the first set the direction is usually clear so the value is on Frank but Tursunov is going to win imo. I have no trust into Marat Safin but he has totally dominated Grosjean who's best surface the grass is and they have not met on this surface yet but Safin as a dog? Serra is surely a game with +173 against Ginepri. Again I am playing against Ginepri because thinking he has just lost his "mojo" but if Bobby wins this I have to consider new time the situation. I was hoping a bigger odd for Qureshi so this is only a live game for me but +305 seems to be enough when thinking that Qureshi has his unique style to play and totally knows how to play on this surface and Kohl taking lately maby few steps backwards.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

There are alot of interesting matches today. I think alot of the dogs have good value.

Completely agree with Tsonga. I only hear good things about the guy, and he is on a decent winning streak on grass. He just won the Surbiton Challenger by beating Doctor Ivo in straight sets in the final.

Kendrick's price is too big, but like you I doubt he has the necessary weapons other than his serve. Serra, Dancevic, and Mirnyi look decent bets.

Also, I'm gonna take a punt on Qureshi. Thanks for your info on him. He clearly has good experience on grass, and should have decent gameplan. I like Kohlschreiber but he's not mentally strong, and I don't think he possesses anything special for the grasscourt game.


Good luck today.

 

[Hope1]

nice analysis guys, thks

gl with Llodra Levi

:toast:

bookie has adjusted Tsonga's lines very very quickly. Only 3.5 on the games line Vs a top 5 grass player? wow He's played so much tennis of late its almost absurd. BUT he's a young kid and grass tennis is no where near as demanding as clay tennis.

 

[gabbana]

bol today levi

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks for wishes guys.

Thanks for your info on him.
Good luck today.

I think you would be one unit richer if I had not said anything about him, Kohl was too strong, sorry about that, I lost also a small amount to him. Kendrick and Djoko played just as expected.

 

[Leviathan]

...and Llodra retires. I am Glad he did not win the first set or he likely would have played a one more set and if he had played that and lost that, he maby would have retired the whole match then and the bet would have been lost. There was a longer break at 5-5 situation, I think something happened for Llodra and he kept an injurybreak.

 

[rhinooooo]

Thanks for wishes guys.


I think you would be one unit richer if I had not said anything about him, Kohl was too strong, sorry about that, I lost also a small amount to him. Kendrick and Djoko played just as expected.

:youmad:

...

Only joking man. No need to be sorry at all, I respect your analysis alot, and it just means I now have more knowledge on another player. I'll definitely be looking out for him in future events, and he definitely had value today against Kohli.

 

[Leviathan]

Again an intresting day coming. Tsonga was a moneymaker yesterday and meeting Cilic today who against JW should have no problems if he continues his great playing but it is now like everybody are on Tsonga and his odds now -319, I am also going to win one unit betting him but this odd would definately be bigger without yesterday's Hewitt match.

At Garry Weber Mayer +122 over Davydenko is worth of a shot for me. Davydenko made his grass record more beautiful against Melzer even beautiful is only a word his opponents are using and Mayer is not a bad at this surface. Becker's odd coming down, now -150, would be a huge game for me but l did not get very confident picture about him so going to see how the game starts. I think Giqcuel is not liking about the grass, only four matches on the surface this far and he is born 1977 so this seems Benny's match even Gicquel has a decent serve. Nieminen was yesterday something like -200 and now it is -264 so I am taking carefully Pavel +244. I still think this surface is no good for Nieminen who's success at Wimbledon last year was because the court was very slow as a grasscourt. Maby I am wrong and Nieminen is becoming as a great grassplayer. Pavel has also had problems and got in from qualies as a lucky loser but seeing this match much more equal than the odds suggest.

Soderling seems also as a decent bet. Now only +128 but has won both matches on hard against Baggy and on the grass Soderling's tie break record is not so bad either, at least yet, now 4-5. Baggy has played well lately but he is more like a man of the big tournaments so I think this match is 50-50.

At Stella Artois Nadal is bigger favourite against Mirnyi today than against DP yesterday. Mirnyi should have something to say but even coming to the net against Nadal is good, is Mirnyi coming to the net way too often and Nadal should have easy job to pass him so no play for me even the odds look good for Mirnyi. Tursunov -150 gets a small game for me too. I still rank Mathieu as a bad grassplayer but now he has showed something more. If this game had were the first match of the tournament the stake for Tursunov would have been much bigger. Gonzalez is playing like he should not be playing and surprisingly I think the value is on Ginepri +183 but I will not play him yet but cheering Ginepri at least for a start, I liked his gamestyle when he was on the top of his game at late 2005.

Mahut and Ljubo has both won one match when they have met earlier but the win of Mahut was after Ljubo's DavisCup match or something else but I remember playing Mahut because that was a potential letdown for Ljubo. Mahut should be problems for Ljubicic who is good player, maby a bit bad mover but on this surface he is not as his best, low balls are hard for him and he has his record as it is mostly because of his serve. I think Mahut has chances in this match and I will take +214 odd as a best bet of the day. The most scaring thing is that besides his positive record on the grass Mahut is only 7-12 on the tiebreaks on the grass, Ljubo is 6-9. I will check some ladies matches too but not sure if I have time to write before the start of the matches.

GL

 

[Leviathan]

There is something going on Tursunov Mathieu match, the odds has gone upside down, Tursunov likely injured but no better information.

 

[Leviathan]

Will M. Bartoli Win 2-0 ? No +107

Young Kerber is making her way to the top. I have not seen her to play but her result are telling that she is more suitable to fast courts and she has won Bartoli four years ago on the clay. On the grass her leftyness should be an advantage too and so far her rusults on the grass has been good. Kerber has played mostly challengers, last year 32-8 and this year 38-10. Her last eighteen matches 16-2. Bartoli has some good wins on the grass but losses too se she should not be too dominant opponent for Kerber.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

Agree on everything there. I had a lean on Pavel but just couldn't take it.

Ginepri and Mahut look very good value. There's some crazy movement on Mahut's odds, I think its getting pounded, but it will probably rise back by game time.

I also took Mirnyi because he's got a style suited to grasscourt. Nadal is just brilliant, but like you said, his odds are higher here than against DPotro which is completely wrong.

Good luck today

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks Rhino. You know what, the odds of the Mahut match are nothing compared to Tursunov match. At some point Tursunov was -150 and suddenly some rumour maby and Mathieu was -150 and now Tursunov is -221...just not knowing is that funny or grazy. I made a bet now for Mathieu and now very small profit no matter which player wins, because those oddschances I am too scared to bet that match anymore.

Mayer Davydenko match is not open at Pinnacle anymore but it is open at Betfair at least. Just noticed that Melzer did not play in the doubles because he had problems with his left hand wrist and he plays with left hand so that would explain a lot about Melzer Davydenko match, bigly on Mayer now.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

Those line moves are crazy. When I first saw the odds for Mathiu/Tursunov they were both -105. Someone must have had ALOT of money riding on that match.

Great hit with Mayer.

 

[Leviathan]

Yeah, pretty easy win for Mayer but Tsonga lost after his big win as happens to many players, I was just too stunned about his game and of course he had lot of matches played lately but still. I can not believe how Benny's game is missing, it is totally hit or miss and I am predicting very hard season what is remaining for Benny. Of course it will be no long before he gets back to the US courts where he is used to play, if that does not chance his game he most likely has played his best matches. Mahut started his game well but hard situation from 30-30 on Mahut's serve if Ljubo starts well.

For tomorrow so far Kohl's odd looks intresting against strugling Blake but I think Kohl might have some problems against powerplayers as Blake. Blake on the other way has problems against heavy groundstrokes but I think on the grass not so much and Kohl's not so heavy? but I will stay away from that game or very small stake later if Kohl's odds will rise. Youzhny has beaten Berdych in their three last meetings and Berdych has been playing well but not as good as you could have excepted from him before the season. The grass is better for Berdych with his dangerous serve but this surface is not so much advantage for Berdych even his game has potential to be a big danger for russian but I see the value on Youzhny +127. These odds would be right for me without their three previous meetings.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

Tsonga was a let down. The odds were way too low for him. I think Cilic was too underrated. Another time, Tsonga would have won but he's played 14 matches in 8 days so that must have caught up with him. Also, yesterdays big victory over Hewitt must have been very mentally and physically draining.

Benny will be better during hardcourt season. I think Gicquel enjoys playing on faster surfaces. Benny needs to get some wins to regain form and have confidence.

Good luck with Youzhny and Kohli. I think Kohli has a shot but like you said, he may struggle against the power players. Kohli doesn't have powerful grounstrokes, but he hits the lines well, and has a very good forehand.

Hopefully Mahut will hit for us tomorrow!!

 

[Leviathan]

Youzhny withdrew from the tournament, he said he has back pains. Gicquel has two nice wins so far over rally Nalby and over Benny, who did all the tricks he could yesterday, hitted the tennis ball to Gicquel's balls...autch, is not painless. Anyway Nieminen has served pretty well so far at the tournament as a bad server and his serve return abilities should be too much for Gicquel. Their previous meeting on the indoors was easy for Nieminen, I am now excepring more equal match than then but Nieminen -165 3/10 for me.

GL

 

[Hope1]

Good grief he takes the first set than Marc reitres.uke1: Kirilenko playign very well Vs Jankovic, hmm....is she finally back?--she's showing signs of life.