Tennis Miami - Leviathan

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I used wunderground yesterday to the forecast and it promised some chance of thunderstorms today and the rest of the week was good, now it is chance of thunderstorms for tomorrow too. Now it is raining lightly again but maby getting to play soon, there is no clouds enough, it can not rain from the clear sky, not even in the Wimbledon :missingte
 

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Good luck with the rest of the plays Levi.

As for that Mahut bet... My idea is that if he ends up playing Gasquet in the next round, the bookies will not make the price too crazy. He's got alot of publicity and backing from punters after his performance at Queens, and you've got to combine that with Gasquet's bad form.
 

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Thanks Rhino and Hope.

Mahut's price against Gasquet is +134, it would have been grazy a month ago but now I am almost thinking that Mahut should be the favourite if you will consider their gamestyles and latest performances. I will not let the name scare me and I will take Mahut once again, he has been the moneymaker lately but now 2/10 stake.

The other bet I like very much is Falla +480 over Gonzalez. Gonzalez is just playing too badly lately. Ginepri was on his way to win the second set until he decided to choke and the match was over, no sweating for Gonzo at the end but no fire in his eyes either, like not in the latest tournaments either. Falla has a good grass record what is partly because of his lefty serve, what gives him more advantage on the grass than usually because the ball jumps lower. Falla is a good returner too as Gonzo but Gonzo has more weight in his hits so he is the favourite but Falla having a great spot to do a surprise, stake 3/10.

Dell'Acqua +118 over Pratt 4/10. This price feels grazy, Pratt has played badly but has showed some relatively good stuff at Wimbledon earlier but if her bad plays are not enough she had had injury in his right knee and no preparetion tournament to the Wimbledon. What keeps the stakes lower is that Dell'Acqua has played at challengers very well almost three years and this year extremely well but no good results from the major tournaments, like this year is only 1-4, her development seems to go on but very slowly.

Benesova 1/10 over Castano. Benesova comin from the injury and a bad year but ranking Castano so low on the grass that I will try Benesova.

Also took 1/10 both Serra +142 against Tipsarevic and Feliciano Lopez +143 against Tim Henman and maby taking later more Lopez. Henman got his win but played pretty badly. If Lopez can keep nerves away from the easy errors this might be even easy for him. Lopez has already beaten three british players at Wimbedon and lost zero matches but Henman has a good record against lefthanded players.

GL
 

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Good luck bro. I'm definitely with you on Serra and Falla. Looking for the best price on Falla. Lopez has a decent price against Henman. Moya/Henman was an unbelievable match!

I'm thinking of placing a couple of units on Gasquet as cover for the Mahut bet I made earlier. I feel Mahut has a chance to go far and I hope he does, but he's played alot of tennis recently.
 

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I'm thinking of placing a couple of units on Gasquet as cover for the Mahut bet I made earlier. I feel Mahut has a chance to go far and I hope he does, but he's played alot of tennis recently.
Sounds reasonable. If Mahut goes forward I think Chela has no chances against him even if he is tired but Roger-Vasselin might have something to say but Mahut should be a nice favourite against both players. I see R-V's chances being pretty good against Chela and oddsmakers has made him as a dog. I take R-V +145 against Chela 6/10, I believe his odds will come down, this will be far more equal match. Chela was lucky to proceed, Benjamin was once again playing his hit or miss game with lots of unforced errors.
 

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It's good you got Mahut when you did. He seems to be getting pounded on Betfair. He;s down to +124. Gasquet is up to 1.79! He was 1.70 about an hour ago. Man, all this publicity and the great performances has lead to huge support for Mahut. They don't stop mentioning him on the TV coverage.
 

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Levi, very nice anti-ALG play, well done. Anna has to dedicate herself or just quit for some time. She is out of shape, a mess. Close with Baltucha, even Kerber!

Benesova and Castano? you're a better man than me to bet that match.

I like Serra as well, rhino likes it as well.....we all go over cliff together:missingte
 

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Mahut lost pretty convincingly. Apparently he was nursing some kind of injury, and Gasquet managed to put in the performance of his life. Tough for Mahut what with all the matches he had to play recently. If only Ancic withdrew earlier, he wouldn't have had to go through qualifying. Some people claim Ancic purposely withdrew late as Mahut beat him in Junior Wimbledon. :missingte

Good luck with any plays you have today.
 

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Well Hope...we went over the cliff together :missingte...not so funny but next time we will go over the hills.

Rhino, that is funny how people always find these spots but in this case it really seems that Ancic made that on purpose because it was clear he will not make better to the Wimbledon. Nice you covered Mahut. Are you going to cover Jonas too? Two old man playing against other old man but the odds for Jonas are very low so I am covering that even I believe Jonas beating him. Arthurs made a good job for him kicking Robredo's ass.

Falla fought yesteday but eventually Gonzo fought harder, Safin was clearly better and when Qureshi left his bp's unused it was too easy for Marat. I managed to lose some more money today in live so not so good tournamet so far. It is starting to get rainy at Wimbledon and they might need some luck to have any plays in play tomorrow. Saturday is also rainy but not so rainy, has there ever been two weeks sun shining during the Wimbledon :think2:

I have only watched a few games so far but these are what I am liking. Mahut plays well in windy conditions, I assume the weather stays as it has been, and he has showed good condition. Sometimes a choker but good serve returner who really enjoys playing right now. Ivan not so bad either but +155 represents a small value for me. The other match is scheduled for saturday and it is Soderling over Nadal. Got the price a bit over +800 at Betfair and I belive the price goes down. Some players have heavy groundstrokes but Soderling has very heavy groundstrokes which gives Nadal big problems. He also has a good serve and I am not sure about this but some people say that Nadal has problems to play in the wind but I have not noticed that but now hoping that it is so. Soderling is known as a big choker in tiebreaks specially and Nadal has been fire in tiebreaks but in his lost against Mahut he lost the last tb 7-0 and Soderling has a positive record in tbs this far on the grass but Soderling's choking abilities are my biggest concern against such a fighter as Nadal. The other thing is that when Soderling is a tall player he can reach the ball well but he is slow to chance his direction and Nadal knows how to use that. Nadal will likely take this match but I am loving the odds for Soderling. I would give him the chances to win at least one match out of five.

GL
 

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Well Hope...we went over the cliff together :missingte...not so funny but next time we will go over the hills.
GL

:missingte

Serra put up a great fight to come back from two sets down, though!

I'm unsure on Arthurs for now. He does have one big thing going his way - HUGE SUPPORT! So many Aussies in London and flooding Wimbledon. They're going crazy for the guy. He definitely has a decent chance against Bjorkman, especially with that big serve of his.

I don't think Qureshi did enough of Safin's second serves. He wasn't able to exploit it. Safin definitely played well though, showed some great quality and better movement. I hope he can test Roger without losing his mind. Speaking of people losing their mind...

I have only watched a few games so far but these are what I am liking. Mahut plays well in windy conditions, I assume the weather stays as it has been, and he has showed good condition. Sometimes a choker but good serve returner who really enjoys playing right now. Ivan not so bad either but +155 represents a small value for me.

:missingte Anyway, I agree that Mathieu is worth a bet. Brilliant form on grass recently. It's been a good year for him. I'll definitely also be taking a punt on Soderling with that great price.

I feel I have to put a unit on Verdasco. The H2H isn't good, but at +700 he's worth it. Roddick was troubled by Udomchoke who has some great groundstrokes. Verdasco has the same, as well as being able to produce some killer winners and good returning skills. The problem is he can be so inconsistent.

What do you think about Tipsy? He might be worth a bit with the form he is showing. Gonzo isn't looking his best, but is pulling out the victories. Tipsy pushed him close at Queens. He's available at about +275.
 

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...damn, Mahut is everywhere

Thanks for your comments

What do you think about Tipsy? He might be worth a bit with the form he is showing. Gonzo isn't looking his best, but is pulling out the victories. Tipsy pushed him close at Queens. He's available at about +275.
This is about 50-50 bet or no bet for me. Gonzo has now got a few wins what might give him more confidence. I was thinking more to bet Tipsarevic at the start of the match and trying to get rid of him during the match with some profit because Gonzo has started slowly his matches and Tipsarevic can keep his level whole match and he is very fast player. There definately is value but Gonzalez is such a hard player to estimate when he looks playing badly but gets wins and even Tipsarevic has been playing well lately but Gonzo is still on the higher level. The other thing worries me is their tb records on the grass, Tipsarevic 4-10 and Gonzo 13-6.

I was also thinking about Verdasco but I believe the odsd will not come down so still time to think. Verdasco has had such a poor year, he supposed to be the next big star for Spain.
 

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...damn, Mahut is everywhere

:missingte

Mathieu can take out Ivan, no doubt. Fantastic stuff by him this week, blew Ferrer off the court.

like Kiefer over Novak, games line plus Not 3-0 and outright--need to see lines tho

[QUOTEWell Hope...we went over the cliff together :missingte...not so funny but next time we will go over the hills.
][/QUOTE]

:puppy:
 

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Mahut took it easily against Ljubo, I was scared in the second set if it would go to the tiebreak because I thought Ljubo would be stronger in that, specially after he won the first set unearnedly but luckily he broke before that and the rest was easy.

Nadal had a matchpoint with his first serve but the headcase made something incredible and took two sets in row, I was almost sure the game was over. I was happy to wait if the game continues last night, I got -200 for Nadal in the live when the last set started but still small loss if Nadal wins, headcase gave him the break but it is not over yet. 30-30 on Nadal's serve, yesterday Soderling started well so he definately has still some chances.

Today I do not know how much they are able to play but took Vaidisova-Mauresmo match over 21 games -112. I think Vaidisova is well capable to take at least a set and no way Mauresmo loses this 2-0. Mauresmo has sometimes lost the grip but in the regular odds I think the value is on Vaidisova but Mauresmo is just scary right now.

I was also thinking about Mathieu. Mathieu won their last meeting on the hard and Andy had won the previous tournament then so I think he was in good fit then. Of course the tournament was in the Canada between two USA tournaments so it might have been a letdown match but it is hard for me to believe that Andy took grandslam tournament not seriously because his overall saldo in there is 19-4. Mathieu has the record at Montreal 5-3 but in 2005 when he won Roddick he went to the semifinals so he seemed to be in good shape then. Now Mathieu is definately in good shape and Roddick has not gone much up or down so I think Mathieu has chances but not playing him yet. Usually in these situations the odds for the favourite are the highest just before the game starts so I will wait till then.

GL
 

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Thanks BetIt. Six breaks in the first set so a bit lucky to have a tiebreak but eventually as you said, no sweat at all.
 

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