Tennis Miami - Leviathan

[rhinooooo]

Sorry about Gulbis. Hope you managed to get some profit by laying him.

He was terrible in the first two sets, but he had his chances to come back and take the 4th set. I don't think he had the composure and experience to win the 4th set tiebreak as his game seems to be based on hitting alot of winners. He made a ton of unforced errors.

And Grandpa Jonas won today aswell. Another comeback from 2 sets down. HE'S GONNA BEAT NADAL AND FED!!

 

[Leviathan]

It is just a game. I was betting Montanes -200 and got it when Gulbis had a break lead in the fourth set but a small loss still, I was too greed...I thought they would not play anymore today but maby better they are playing.

And Grandpa Jonas won today aswell. Another comeback from 2 sets down. HE'S GONNA BEAT NADAL AND FED!!

Yeah, right after he has given them 2-0 lead :lol:

 

[Leviathan]

Probably not going to around when the games are on but at least one game. Jarkko Nieminen +238 over Lleyton Hewitt. Hewitt made a comeback against Gaudio, yes Gaudio almost won him and Nieminen has had no hard times or harder opponents so far. Both players has had much ups and downs so it is hard to estimate this. +200 for Nieminen or less sounds more right to me. Hewitt leads their matches 3-0 but all on the faster surfaces and this surface is the advantage for Nieminen. I saw their last meeting 2005 at US Open and Nieminen started very strongly and should have won that match but somehow he lost the plot of the game or got tired and Hewitt fighted his way forward. Now Nieminen should not get tired and his ability to control the tempo of the game might be hard for Hewitt this time.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

Completely agree.

Nieminen has the strong and accurate groundstrokes to work Hewitt over the court.

Good luck

 

[Leviathan]

Nieminen won the first set and had a early break lead in the second...and that is pretty much all what is worth of mention if you think about the game. In the third set came from 0-40 to 40-40 and saved six setpoints but damn that lack of power what Nieminen owns.

I think Jonas is finally going to lose because he broke the magic losing only the first set :lolBIG:


For today I see one match over others, Dinara Safina +395 over Serena Williams. I think Serena is not so weak on the clay than you could imagine but definately weaker than on harder courts and Dinara should give her some real trouble imo. They have met twice earlier, both meetings on the hard. 2002 Serena destroyed Dinara when Dinara was only sixteen and two years later Serena had not such a great year anymore but good year anyhow and Dinara was able to take a set from her but that match was for Serena two weeks after lost US Open final at China so that might have been also something to say at the result. Dinara has had better first serve in percentage so far at RG, approximately 67% when Serena has had 60%. First serves won for Dinara 72%, 73%, 66% so that sounds pretty good too and Serena 57%, 80%, 72% which is good too but her first opponent was a little harder and you can see that from the won percentage. The rain might have something to do that too. Serena has been keeping her second serves relatively well for a woman, 42%, 47%, 51% at least what comes to Dinara who's second serves won is 29%, 66%, 20%. Dinara should definately get better with her second serves or she will be doomed against the power of Serena but I think she can make her game better and it is worth of a shot with this odd.

GL

 

[Leviathan]

Will S.Kuznetsova win 2-0? No -125, and Peer +214 to beat Kuznetsova (stakes 5/10 and 2/10). Just got intrested in their match when I saw that they have met twice thus far and both matches this year on hard and both matches won by Peer. Indoor hard in straight sets and at Miami on the slow hardcourt in three sets. Peer has gotten more power to his game and maby this court favours Svetlana but overall these ladies are pretty equal on the clay and on the hardcourts if you are watching results. Peer has developed much this year and Kuznetsova has not so Peer seems to be underrated imo. My prediction is a three setter and in the third set this will be a lottery.

GL

 

[bevoaustintx]

Robredo is in for me, check covers if u dont mind for my tennis picks, need Ivanovic now after Kuzzy bagels peer here in the 2nd

 

[Hope1]

Kuz got her revenge, Levi. She is so solid on this surface. The line had me scratching my head at Kuz -250--the books were right.

 

[Leviathan]

Yeah Hope, the bookies got this round. Peer and Safina had never a chance to beat their opponents during the game. Another match what I thought could be a big surprise was Jankovic to lose Bartoli but that was too one sided match.

Nice hits yesterday bevoaustintx. Robredo match ended just like it should have been ended but I was too scared about Volandri's success in their previous matches. I checked your picks, good luck in which forum you will ever be. I agree with Verdasco today. Djoko has had more troubles so far than he should have and after all even if Verdasco has had a troublesome season he is a very talented player. The other bet I made so far was Nadal -1000 to beat Hewitt, just can not see Hewitt giving him too much troubles.

GL

 

[Leviathan]

That was too easy for Djoko. What is wrong with these spaniards :think2:, I bet Patience would have beaten Djoko already if Djoko were a spaniard. Nadal seems to be only consistent spaniard player.

Not seeing great bets for tomorrow. I would play Davydenko because that seems pretty equal match and his odds are higher but Canas as a great fighter and you will never know when Davydenko is getting his breathing problems and this will not be a quick match, at least what I think.

Federer managed to lose for Volandri some time ago so Robredo might not be without chances. Roger has looked great lately and this is fivesetter but these runners are potential troubles for Federer even Tommy has no special weapons. Even Tommy is not as fast as Canas or as annoying as Nadal I would consider playing him if there would not be this head to head record which is 7-0 for Roger and where Tommy has managed to take only one set so I will pass.

Henin -160 against Serena is a bit low but Henin should be calm enough to keep his head against Serena's power and take a revenge after losing for Serena at Miami when she won the first set 6-0. I think this surface is slow enough for Henin's advantage.

Maria Sharapova achieved a win against Schnyder and their game included so much fighting and choking that it felt just grazy. Maria is playing smartly and she is not yet 100% condition but she is very dangerous but still I think she should not be favoured as bigly as she is so I am taking Anna Chakvetadze +181.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

Djoko didn't even play that well. Verdasco's always had these problems. He makes alot of bad decisions.

I like the Chakvetadze pick. Good luck.

 

[Hope1]

That was too easy for Djoko. What is wrong with these spaniards :think2:, I bet Patience would have beaten Djoko already if Djoko were a spaniard. Nadal seems to be only consistent spaniard

Novak is really blossoming. No way he wins that match Vs Patience 1-2 yrs ago. He would have faded. He never faced break point in that decisive 5th set. He had the look of a man who KNEW he would win.

gl with Anna

:toast:

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks Rhino and Hope. Maria apparently owns Anna but eventually Maria was in the trouble when she got a bit tougher opponent.

Well, that is history and the grass season is here. No odds yet but watched some matches for tomorrow in men, going to check some women matches too but later. By the way the most bizarre match is the return of Nicolas Kiefer. He played his last match last year at Roland Garros against Thomas Berdych and now when he is doing his return he is playing again against Berdych...anyway nice to see Kiefer back in action.

Some players who has done their debyt at challengers on the grass at this season are Bogdanovic, Bloomfield, Guccione, Baker, Falla and Querrey. Querrey against Blake is no thanks for me but very intrested about Falla over Benneteau. Benneteau has two pretty easy wins over Falla but Benny has had weak clay season after some promising results in the US. You could say almost the same about Falla. Both players are familiar with grass and Benny has 0-3 record so far at Stella Artois. Guccione might be a dog in odds against Seppi but Guccione's game should be good for grass and his 200cm tallness helps his fast serves so he is going to be very hard to break. Seppi is a good breaker and surprisingly he has some decent results from grass. Seppi has played so badly at this season compared to what he is capable so I am not excepting much from him on grass either and he also has 11-24 lifetime record against lefties. Bogdanovic is a brit so he can not be so bad on grass but playing against H-T Lee who is 11-4 at Stella Artois might be too much for him. The other brit Bloomfield is 0-3 at Stella Artois and is playing against Robby Ginepri. Ginepri has played as badly as always on the clay but overall his results are coming down and down and down. I am not very familiar with this Bloomfield but when the odds are out I think I am very tempted to play against Ginepri. Baker is the third brit and surely not without chances agaist Peya who has not managed to do break to major events. His results from last five years in major events is 12-26 and seems not to be very good on the grass compared to other results though last year he made his way to the Wimbledon from qualies. Peya retired his match against Lapentti at RG but apparently nothing serious. Peya the favourite but hoping good odds for Baker.

Thomas Johansson who is a decent grass player is playing against Juan Manuel Del Potro. Johansson was a disappointment at last season on the grass 0-3 but now he should have a pretty easy opponent. Del Potro has a good serve and pretty good hits but his game is pretty unknown on the grass. His only games on the surface are from 2004 at Wimbledon juniors when won Nick Lavaday and lost for Scoville Jenkins. He also retired from his two earlier matches before losing for Nadal at the first round in RG. Also liking Nicolas Mahut who is a veteran at Stella Artois and in the third round last year, Kunitsyn represents no class on this surface.

P-H Mathieu last five years is 2-9 on the grass, playing against Feliziano Lopez who's serve is very dangerous on this surface.

Oscar Hernandez has played 98% of his matches on the clay and only two matches on the grass during his career and both lost. Playing against Udomchoke who has been in a bad form and but the surface chance should help. Last year was hard for Udomchoke too, 1-4 on the grass but imo his game suits to the surface even he is not so good player and has some bad results.

Llodra and Yen-Hsun Lu match should also be intresting. Llodra great results from the grass and seems to be in good form but Lu seems to be a badass against lefties, 24-9 record. I think Lu has decent odds but Lu has retired lately three matches and the latedt match because of his lower back so he seems to have problems with himself.

Youzhny should be too hard for Russell but Benjamin Becker might become a bet. On the clay season he has not have good results but we remember how badly his game was mixed before the clay season so I think we have now totally different player who desires some good results. Last year he was 9-3 on the grass in three tournaments and all started from qualies. Gabashvili has played only one grass match during his career and retired two of his last two matches. Benjamin has also won their only meeting and that was on the clay so for me this match has only one winner.

GL

 

[Leviathan]

Lopez -142 over Mathieu, stake 6/10

 

[Leviathan]

Falla +110 over Benneteau
Bloomfield +364 over Ginepri
Parlay -110, Guccione over Seppi and Johansson over Del Potro
Lu +404 over Llodra, huge odds, just have to try this with small stake
Baker +245 over Peya, with small stakes too
Radwanska -267 over Kremer

This one is for tuesday but I am taking Kristof Vliegen +108 over Jarkko Nieminen. Vliegen is not the best mover so you could think Jarkko has some dominating over him but Vliegen's heavy groundstrokes have been poison for Nieminen in their last three matches which Vliegen has taken em all, two on the clay and one on indoor. Nieminen succeeded last year at Wimbledon well but he was lucky because of the draw. Nieminen definately is no grassplayer, one reason is his lack of power what you can see in his serves and playing at the baseline should not be enough again Vliegen at this time either.

The other one for tuesday but with smaller stake is Melzer -108 over Davydenko. Melzer has managed to take one set per game in their previous two meetings and they were played on the clay. Melzer's lifetime record on the grass is 20-18 when Davydenko has the record 1-11.

GL

 

[Leviathan]

I took Becker over Gabashvili with -400 trying to win one unit. Women playing still at Barcelona on the clay even the Wimbledon is very close. At Birmingham they are playing on the grass and trying some potential dogs:
Brianti +394 over Dechy. Dechy is 14-10 at last four years on the grass but at Birmingham she is only 1-6 so obciously chancing the surface takes some time from her. Brianti should be much worse on the grass but with these odds I am trying her with small stake. The other bet which I like more is Kop-Jones +361 over Maria Kirilenko. KJ was confident in the qualies and considering how Maria has played I think KJ has a great possibility to make her way to the second round. Daniilidou is 13-6 at Birmingham but not liking her odds -268 against experienced Granville.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

Good luck Levi. I'm on alot of the same plays. Hope its a profitable grass season.

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks and I am hoping the same thing Rhino

Yesterday not the greatest day but not the baddest either. For today my best games are earlier mentioned Vliegen and Melzer and now Ernest Gulbis. Gulbis had a great play against old Henman on the clay and his game is not so suitable for clay as it is for other surfaces. The biggest but is that Gulbis has no previous games on the grass but imo his game should suit greatly to this surface and I think he is ok with the low balls. Kendrick is typical big server who probably comes much to the net and he also has some grass matches from this season. Gulbis also is able to come to the net but as far as I know Gulbis is pretty good against these players so taking Gulbis +166 over Kendrick.

GL

 

[Hope1]

gl today Levi

:toast:

 

[rhinooooo]

Agree with the Melzer pick as Davy is very poor on grass. I've also put a bet on Gulbis, as he's got a reasonably strong serve and the fast court should suit him.

I can never seem to have faith in Vliegen, he's one of those players that I can never predict.

Good luck.