Very nice win today with Indy. San Diego fits the bill for next week, and there's a slim chance Cleveland could sneak up above the -6.5 mark (it's -5 now). We'll also want to see what the Green Bay line is after tonight's game.
That's what it looks like for Oct. 14: Chargers - yes. Browns - Maybe, but not likely. Packers - Maybe, depending on outcome of tonight's game and line opening.
Perhaps if a team is favored by -6 or less they aren't as capable of covering as much as a team that is favored by -6.5 to -15. I'm thinking the latter is definitely a better team than their opponent and therefore has the talent to carry out their motivation to do well before going into the break.
That sounds about right. In the NFL for a team to be favored by at least 6.5, the books obviously feel like there's a noticeable difference in team strength, not just something like home field advantage giving a team a slight edge. That coupled with the upcoming bye week -- eliminating look-ahead factors, etc. -- seems to be the key to me.
That still bothers me about Philadelphia last season. I'm going to look into why they didnt' cover.
Nothing's going to always come in. Sometimes that football just bounces funny. And I sure would never blindly bet using this system -- if my radar was going off and making me feel uncomfortable about a play, I'd stay away from it. This is just another handy tool in the toolbox.
Very nice win today with Indy. San Diego fits the bill for next week, and there's a slim chance Cleveland could sneak up above the -6.5 mark (it's -5 now). We'll also want to see what the Green Bay line is after tonight's game.
That's what it looks like for Oct. 14: Chargers - yes. Browns - Maybe, but not likely. Packers - Maybe, depending on outcome of tonight's game and line opening.
In the thread from the link, gskiman posts this info (posted on 10-09-2006):
Recap Week 5
NE -9 20-10 Win
Minn -6.5 26-17 Win
JAX -6.5 41-0 Win
This season System 6-0 ATS
Overall since 2002 System 22-1 ATS
It's interesting to note that NE won by 10 so if you didn't get this at -9.5 you would have pushed. Some got this number at -10.5.