System play that has gone 22-1 since 2002

[quantumleap]

I think it only works as a DD
Maybe that changes if you go back further
Maybe the system is .500 if you go back far enough
But the league and rules change
There is never a guarantee a system will continue
I like systems
But I combine systems with my personal capping to decide if it seems like a good play or vary how much the play should be based on the system and capping
I would suggest people do the same

Great points! I've seen a system go for years and years with a great record only to turn around. I think I'll try to dig it up and will post here later. That's one of the biggest tricks of finding these systems. It's great that it's worked for so long but it can turn at any moment. That's why it's good to tweak it every now and then.

Using "-6 >= line" gives us a record of 8-7 for the last 15 games if you count the Packers (which the database does) even though they eventually went down to -5.

Here is the syntax for double digit. I left out -10 itself since we can see that Biz's table shows a 4-3 record for exactly a line of -10.

-10 > line and n:rest > 9 and season > 2000 and not A and REG

This results in a record of 32-10-1 (76.2%). The record for this system is 27-3-1 (90.0%) since December 2008 and only usually results in about 3 plays per year.

 

[quantumleap]

We have 2 teams that fit this system. Please keep in mind that it is 8-7 the last 15 times.

The closing line is what counts in this bet so don't make any bets just yet. Injuries or other factors could still make these lines go below -6 which would be a "no bet".

Indy
Miami

It's interesting to note that Miami is currently at -9 1/2. When we use -9 1/2 in the query for the minimum line for the favorite instead of -6 we get a record of 45-18-1 since 2000 but the recent record is 8-3.

 

[quantumleap]

Just wanted people to be aware that this system is 3-6 in the last 9 games when the line has been between -6 and -9.5:

-9.5 <= line <= -6 and n:rest > 9 and season > 2000 and not A and REG

I also want to point out that back in 2018 this system went 1-4 through 5 games and the system ended up going 5-4 for that year. One of the trickiest things about trends like this, especially ones that have been going for so long, is to know when to quit.

Here is a trend that went 85-31-1 ATS from 2005 to 2017 and then in 2018 and 2019 it went 3-14-1.

From 2005 to 2017:

month = 11 and A and p:ADL and rest >= 6 and 2017 >= season >= 2005

This query results in a 85-31-1 ATS record.


Here is the query for the 2018 and 2019 seasons.

month = 11 and A and p:ADL and rest >= 6 and 2019 >= season >= 2018

The combined ATS record for those 2 years is 3-14-1

 

[quantumleap]

I think it's close enough to post the lines as they should fit the system by game time. Keep in mind, as mentioned above, the recent record of games lined between -6 and -9.5 is 3-6.

Indy -7

Miami -8 1/2

 

[emtyefd]

thanks Quantum!

 

[thebiggbird]

It looks like Philly will be a play.

 

[ShookOnes]

Philly was a system play, covered ATS and won SU. Completely missed it, thread was buried.

 

[quantumleap]

Philly was a system play, covered ATS and won SU. Completely missed it, thread was buried.

Yeah. In a previous post I mentioned the following:

"Just wanted people to be aware that this system is 3-6 in the last 9 games when the line has been between -6 and -9.5".

So I ignored this game since it started out at -7 1/2. I didn't see that it would eventually go past -10 and finally settle there.

The funny thing about this is that Philly only covered after a "scoop and score" (recovered fumble for TD) with 5 minutes left in the game.

 

[thebiggbird]

KC might qualify this week

 

[ShookOnes]

Yeah. In a previous post I mentioned the following:

"Just wanted people to be aware that this system is 3-6 in the last 9 games when the line has been between -6 and -9.5".

So I ignored this game since it started out at -7 1/2. I didn't see that it would eventually go past -10 and finally settle there.

The funny thing about this is that Philly only covered after a "scoop and score" (recovered fumble for TD) with 5 minutes left in the game.

Sorry if it came across that way. I meant that I had missed the play, wasn't trying to put the blame on you or anything. But yeah, I played the Cowboys but probably would've stayed off and followed the system to be honest. Think they were the right side still, but I definitely would've liked to be on the lucky side result due to the refs incompetence, haha!

 

[quantumleap]

Sorry if it came across that way. I meant that I had missed the play, wasn't trying to put the blame on you or anything. But yeah, I played the Cowboys but probably would've stayed off and followed the system to be honest. Think they were the right side still, but I definitely would've liked to be on the lucky side result due to the refs incompetence, haha!

Not a problem. I didn't take it that way at all. It was my own fault for not following the line movement.

 

[quantumleap]

KC might qualify this week

Yes, if the line holds bigger than -10 then the Chiefs will be a play. They are currently at -11.

 

[morri1962]

What is the record if reversed ??? Instead of favorite they were dogs ???meaning if they where DD dogs example this week Jets & Dallas ??

 

[quantumleap]

Kansas City -10 is a play in this system.

Good luck!

 

[quantumleap]

What is the record if reversed ??? Instead of favorite they were dogs ???meaning if they where DD dogs example this week Jets & Dallas ??

Double-digit dogs before a bye week are 2-7 ATS the week before a bye. Jets are currently at +9 1/2.

10 <= line and n:week = week + 2 and season > 2000 and not A and REG

 

[apec]

Statistically this system is due to hit, especially considering after today. May load up if next system play looks good