The only way I pay attention to any betting system is when I can see the logic behind it. The home team/large favorite/bye week system this thread discusses, I can. The large spread indicates a good relative talent, the bye week means no look-ahead factor. But what you described seems to be just a collection of data that someone found in common to a group of wins or covers over an indeterminate period of time. I see no solid basis behind it, nor any reason to believe it would continue in the future.
Now that the secret is out on Peterson?
Don't you think Dallas will have a plan to stack the box and force Minny to throw? Any passing offenses who have played Minny this year have done OK, running teams however, not so good.
Dallas looks like a decent play bolstered by the theorem.
Don't you think Dallas will have a plan to stack the box and force Minny to throw? Any passing offenses who have played Minny this year have done OK, running teams however, not so good.
Dallas looks like a decent play bolstered by the theorem.
Maybe you had best review the 'bye' system when you get a minute yourself American because if you check SDS's thread labelled 'NFL System Plays', you'll discover my original explanation was bang on contrary to your comment above. The system itself is spelled out pretty good in his thread.
sds23 has a variety of systems he likes to use, including some of the system discussed in this thread. But your short-version explanation was incorrect, as the plays we highlight in this thread are specifically limited to home teams. This does not apply to visiting teams, even if the other criteria are met.
Sds23
"Wager on the side (ATS) of any team that is favored by -6.5 to -15 points the week previous to their bye week."
Sprinky
"Play on any team, home or away, favored between 6.5 and 15 points the week prior to their bye?"
Seems to me as I compare both system explanations, they are exactly identical.
Now I'm not sure what 'short-version' explanation you're referring to, but if Sds's version of the system is correct, which I would say it is, then I would say mine is correct as well, contrary to what you say once again.<!-- / message --><!-- / message --><!-- / message --><!-- / message --><!-- / message --><!-- / message -->
I will let QL have the last word on this since I have seen this system played both ways. QL really knows his stuff and he may be able to dig up proof as to whether the amazing stats for this system only pertains to home teams or not. I have seen it mentioned before both ways (mentioned both as "home only" and mentioned as just being a heavy fave the week before a bye regardless of being at home or on the road).
Having never really stopped to question it myself, I retraced the steps in the thread that QL provided as a link at the beginning of this thread:
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=410405
Notice it does not specify "home" teams. In fact, in re-reading that thread, some away teams were even named as plays. That does not make it right, but this particular thread does no resolve the issue for us. Someone asked the same question near the end of the thread, but that question remained unanswered.
Like I said, QL rarely makes a statement with knowing or having a something tangible. Perhaps he has another link or additional info to clear this up for us. If this does pertain to only home teams then I will make it clear in my thread as well.
Having never really stopped to question it myself, I retraced the steps in the thread that QL provided as a link at the beginning of this thread:
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=410405
Notice it does not specify "home" teams. In fact, in re-reading that thread, some away teams were even named as plays. That does not make it right, but this particular thread does no resolve the issue for us. Someone asked the same question near the end of the thread, but that question remained unanswered.
Like I said, QL rarely makes a statement with knowing or having a something tangible. Perhaps he has another link or additional info to clear this up for us. If this does pertain to only home teams then I will make it clear in my thread as well.
In post #11 of the original DrM thread, he mentions this:
"Looking at the 20 games that make up this system, I find that the Colts produced 3 of the 19 winners. in week 3, 2002, they beat the Texans 23-3 laying 11 in Texas. In 5 2004, they beat the Raiders 35-14 laying 9 at home and in week 7 last season, they beat the Texans 38-20 laying 14'."
So apparently I did not read the thread closely enough to find out that a team can be either at home OR on the road in this system. My apologies to anyone who I may have lead astray. This system did not come into play for road teams yet this year so my overlooking the road teams did not lead us to miss out on an opportunity.
One thing I noticed when going back over the teams that had a bye the next week is that several of them covered comfortably while being favored by less than 6 1/2. I would still be interested in finding out the record that this system produces with teams that are favored by less than 6 1/2.
I've found a web site, sportsdatabase.com, that lets you query NFL games based upon certain criteria. One bad thing about this is that you have to learn the code to query the database. Once I learn how to do this I can run a query to find the results of a team that is simply favored before a bye week.
:toast:
Both teams have pretty great run defenses. Dallas avgs about 79 rush yards allowed while the teams they have played avg about 110 rushing. I dont see AP running all over dallas like last week. Minn has a great run D too, the best actually, but they also have the worst pass D and Dallas happens to have a top 3 pass offense, despite playing 3 of the top 10 pass Ds.
Basically Romo will pass all over the Vikings and there is no way the Viking can hang with the Cowboys just running with AP. Its gonna be very similar to the Dallas Miami game imo.
Basically Romo will pass all over the Vikings and there is no way the Viking can hang with the Cowboys just running with AP. Its gonna be very similar to the Dallas Miami game imo.
OK, I was able to find someone else's query string and could simply change the spread.
You will notice that the difference in the ATS record between -6.5 and -6 results in a 2-3-0 record if we include -6 (ATS: 24-4-0 to ATS: 26-7-0). The record between -6.5 and -5 is 4-9-0 and the record between -6.5 and -4 is 8-14-0. It's easy to see why favorties of between -4 and -6 were exluded from this system.
-6.5 or greater:
<TABLE bgColor=#ffffff><TBODY><TR><TH>SU:</TH><TD>27-1-0 (16.6)</TD><TD></TD><TD colSpan=10></TD></TR><TR><TH>ATS:</TH><TD>24-4-0 (7.4)</TD><TD>avg line: -9.2</TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD></TR><TR><TH>O/U:</TH><TD>14-13-1 (-1.5)</TD><TD>avg total: 41.9</TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
-6 or greater:
<TABLE bgColor=#ffffff><TBODY><TR><TH>SU:</TH><TD>30-3-0 (14.8)</TD><TD></TD><TD colSpan=10></TD></TR><TR><TH>ATS:</TH><TD>26-7-0 (6.1)</TD><TD>avg line: -8.7</TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD></TR><TR><TH>O/U:</TH><TD>16-16-1 (-1.4)</TD><TD>avg total: 41.9</TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
-5 or greater:
<TABLE bgColor=#ffffff><TBODY><TR><TH>SU:</TH><TD>32-9-0 (10.9)</TD><TD></TD><TD colSpan=10></TD></TR><TR><TH>ATS:</TH><TD>28-13-0 (2.9)</TD><TD>avg line: -8.0</TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD></TR><TR><TH>O/U:</TH><TD>22-18-1 (-0.3)</TD><TD>avg total: 41.7</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
-4 or greater:
<TABLE bgColor=#ffffff><TBODY><TR><TH>SU:</TH><TD>37-13-0 (9.0)</TD><TD></TD><TD colSpan=10></TD></TR><TR><TH>ATS:</TH><TD>32-18-0 (1.6)</TD><TD>avg line: -7.3</TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD></TR><TR><TH>O/U:</TH><TD>29-20-1 (1.2)</TD><TD>avg total: 41.8</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
You will notice that the difference in the ATS record between -6.5 and -6 results in a 2-3-0 record if we include -6 (ATS: 24-4-0 to ATS: 26-7-0). The record between -6.5 and -5 is 4-9-0 and the record between -6.5 and -4 is 8-14-0. It's easy to see why favorties of between -4 and -6 were exluded from this system.
-6.5 or greater:
<TABLE bgColor=#ffffff><TBODY><TR><TH>SU:</TH><TD>27-1-0 (16.6)</TD><TD></TD><TD colSpan=10></TD></TR><TR><TH>ATS:</TH><TD>24-4-0 (7.4)</TD><TD>avg line: -9.2</TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD></TR><TR><TH>O/U:</TH><TD>14-13-1 (-1.5)</TD><TD>avg total: 41.9</TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
-6 or greater:
<TABLE bgColor=#ffffff><TBODY><TR><TH>SU:</TH><TD>30-3-0 (14.8)</TD><TD></TD><TD colSpan=10></TD></TR><TR><TH>ATS:</TH><TD>26-7-0 (6.1)</TD><TD>avg line: -8.7</TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD></TR><TR><TH>O/U:</TH><TD>16-16-1 (-1.4)</TD><TD>avg total: 41.9</TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
-5 or greater:
<TABLE bgColor=#ffffff><TBODY><TR><TH>SU:</TH><TD>32-9-0 (10.9)</TD><TD></TD><TD colSpan=10></TD></TR><TR><TH>ATS:</TH><TD>28-13-0 (2.9)</TD><TD>avg line: -8.0</TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD></TR><TR><TH>O/U:</TH><TD>22-18-1 (-0.3)</TD><TD>avg total: 41.7</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
-4 or greater:
<TABLE bgColor=#ffffff><TBODY><TR><TH>SU:</TH><TD>37-13-0 (9.0)</TD><TD></TD><TD colSpan=10></TD></TR><TR><TH>ATS:</TH><TD>32-18-0 (1.6)</TD><TD>avg line: -7.3</TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD><TH bgColor=#ffffff></TH><TD bgColor=#ffffff></TD></TR><TR><TH>O/U:</TH><TD>29-20-1 (1.2)</TD><TD>avg total: 41.8</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I agree FreeMoney. In fact, I agree that your way of figuring things is the best way to predict how games will go. That being, compare run strength of one team to the run defense of another, etc. Of course there are other intangibles like injuries and getting blown out the game before but I don't believe those aspects come in to play in this game coming up.
We have been focusing solely on home favorites in this thread -- as listed in posts #42 and #45 (those plays were all on home teams) -- and that does seem to have a slightly higher winning percentage. If visiting teams were included, for example, last season's Week 6 matchup of Chicago at Arizona would have qualified and would have been a loss (the Bears were favored by -10 and won by 3).
No apologies necessary QL. Easy to think this system had a "home" qualifier involved ~ especially since the majority of these larger spreads fitting the system criteria are awarded to teams playing at home, hence the lower frequency of away games that would have caught our attention.
Thanks for clarifying this for everyone.
