I found this interesting article at statfox.com. Keep in mind that the records represented here reflect pre-2002 games so there may be a different dynamic at play for those games.
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With the
NFL starting its bye’s this coming weekend, this is an ideal time to take a look at how each of the league’s 32 teams performs around the off week. In this first of a two-part series, I will look at the records and trends of the teams in their games heading into the bye week. Next week, watch for the second half of the series, focusing on performances coming out of the bye.
The NFL must have done some of its own statistical studies before settling on the current schedule of all bye’s
running between Week 4 and Week 10 on the schedule. Ironically, for that stretch of weeks historically, none of the weekly ATS marks for the combined teams range outside the 42%-57% success mark. Conversely, those playing in games prior to bye’s in the former Week 11-Week 15 schedule combined for a 14-7 ATS mark, good for 67%. From that difference, it can easily be determined that those teams that had much later off weeks enjoyed the advantage significantly.
Aside from that, the only real significant trends revolve around the individual teams. The Records for each team in games prior to the bye week since ’92 are listed in the chart below, but here’s a closer look at each team along with significant patterns to watch for this year. Note, that the league’s canceling of games following events of 9/11/01 had much to do with the varying number of games among the teams.
Enjoy the analysis, and be sure to check back next week for the study on teams coming out of the bye week.
ARIZONA
Straight Up: 4-11 27% (#30 of 32)
ATS: 6-9 40% (#26 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 9-5 64% (#6 of 32)
The Cardinals have lost seven of their L8 games ATS prior to the bye week, making the
Redskins a potential play on 10/21. Arizona also has a 4-1-1 OVER mark in its L6.
ATLANTA
Straight Up: 7-11 39% (#24 of 32)
ATS: 9-8 53% (#15 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 10-8 56% (#10 of 32)
The
Falcons have been a solid play prior to the open date, going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in L7. They’ve also gone OVER in four straight. New Orleans is the opponent on 10/21.
BALTIMORE
Straight Up: 5-7 42% (#20 of 32)
ATS: 6-6 50% (#17 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 6-6 50% (#16 of 32)
The Ravens have lost four of their last five, both SU & ATS, before the open date after winning their previous five. The UNDER is also 4-1, making Buffalo and the under potential plays on 10/21.
BUFFALO
Straight Up: 6-11 35% (#27 of 32)
ATS: 6-10 38% (#28 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 6-11 35% (#29 of 32)
The Bills are on the longest pre-bye week losing streak, dropping eight straight games, while going 1-6-1 ATS. The under has also hit five in a row. Buffalo hosts Dallas in this spot on 10/8.
CAROLINA
Straight Up: 5-8 38% (#26 of 32)
ATS: 7-6 54% (#11 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 7-6 54% (#11 of 32)
The Panthers are on a 5-2 ATS run in pre-open date games but have failed to cover the last two.
CHICAGO
Straight Up: 4-12 25% (#31 of 32)
ATS: 7-9 44% (#23 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 7-9 44% (#25 of 32)
The Bears have struggled with motivation in the game before the bye week, going 1-7 SU & ATS in the last eight years. Be careful with them when they host Detroit on 10/28.
CINCINNATI
Straight Up: 5-11 31% (#28 of 32)
ATS: 7-9 44% (#23 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 9-6 60% (#7 of 32)
Though no significant ATS patterns exist in recent years in pre-bye week games for Cincinnati, they have lost five of six games outright.
CLEVELAND
Straight Up: 4-9 31% (#29 of 32)
ATS: 7-4 64% (#5 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 5-8 38% (#28 of 32)
The Cleveland franchise is on a nice run of 5-0-1 ATS in home games prior to the regular season bye week. This year they host Miami in that scenario on 10/14.
DALLAS
Straight Up: 13-4 76% (#1 of 32)
ATS: 12-5 71% (#2 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 5-10 33% (#30 of 32)
The Cowboys own the league’s best straight up mark overall in pre-week games at 13-4 and are second with a 12-5 ATS mark. In the last nine years, they are 8-1 ATS. Look out Minnesota on 10/21.
DENVER
Straight Up: 9-8 53% (#14 of 32)
ATS: 8-9 47% (#19 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 10-5 67% (#4 of 32)
The Broncos have hit on six straight pre-bye wins at home, both SU & ATS, and host an important game this year against San Diego on 10/7.
DETROIT
Straight Up: 4-12 25% (#31 of 32)
ATS: 5-10 33% (#29 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 11-5 69% (#2 of 32)
Already bad on the road historically, Detroit is even worse before the open date. In their last seven games in that spot, they are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS with a trip to Washington looming on 10/7.
GREEN BAY
Straight Up: 11-6 65% (#7 of 32)
ATS: 5-11 31% (#31 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 9-7 56% (#9 of 32)
No real significant recent patterns have formed on pre-bye week Green Bay games, but the
Packers are tied for the worst ATS record in the NFL in such games since ’92.
HOUSTON
Straight Up: 3-2 60% (#9 of 32)
ATS: 4-1 80% (#1 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 2-3 40% (#27 of 32)
The Texans own a winning mark of 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in pre-open date games since returning to the NFL in 2002, far better than their overall record.
INDIANAPOLIS
Straight Up: 9-9 50% (#15 of 32)
ATS: 11-7 61% (#7 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 8-10 44% (#24 of 32)
The Colts have shown a good focus overall heading into the bye week, converting on 10 of their L14 games ATS in that scenario.
JACKSONVILLE
Straight Up: 8-5 62% (#8 of 32)
ATS: 7-6 54% (#11 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 6-7 46% (#23 of 32)
No real significant patterns have formed in pre-bye week Jaguars’ games, but they have won, covered, and gone over in two straight.
KANSAS CITY
Straight Up: 8-9 47% (#17 of 32)
ATS: 7-8 47% (#21 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 5-12 29% (#32 of 32)
The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their L5 games before taking the week off.
MIAMI
Straight Up: 9-7 56% (#11 of 32)
ATS: 7-9 44% (#23 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 7-9 44% (#25 of 32)
The Dolphins, who’ve gone OVER the Total in three straight pre-bye week games, have played all of their last five at home and host the Giants this year.
MINNESOTA
Straight Up: 12-5 71% (#5 of 32)
ATS: 8-9 47% (#19 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 8-8 50% (#16 of 32)
The Vikings have been a big OVER team in games prior to the vacation, surpassing the total in five of their last six games.
NEW ENGLAND
Straight Up: 8-8 50% (#16 of 32)
ATS: 9-7 56% (#10 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 8-8 50% (#16 of 32)
No definitive pre-open date trends have formed for Belichick, Brady, & Co.
NEW ORLEANS
Straight Up: 9-7 56% (#11 of 32)
ATS: 8-7 53% (#13 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 8-8 50% (#16 of 32)
The Saints, who are off on 9/30, are on runs of 6-2-1 ATS & 3-0 OVER in games prior to the bye week.
NY GIANTS
Straight Up: 14-5 74% (#4 of 32)
ATS: 12-7 63% (#6 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 10-9 53% (#15 of 32)
The Giants had won three straight pre-vacation games prior to last year’s loss at Seattle. New York’s pre-bye game this year is on 10/28 at Miami.
NY JETS
Straight Up: 8-9 47% (#17 of 32)
ATS: 9-8 53% (#15 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 10-7 59% (#8 of 32)
The Jets have lost three straight pre-bye week games at home, both SU & ATS, and have a date with Washington in that spot on 11/4.
OAKLAND
Straight Up: 10-7 59% (#10 of 32)
ATS: 8-8 50% (#17 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 8-7 53% (#12 of 32)
The Raiders have typically embraced the anticipation of the upcoming bye week, going 6-2 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in games the week prior.
PHILADELPHIA
Straight Up: 7-10 41% (#21 of 32)
ATS: 6-9 40% (#26 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 5-10 33% (#30 of 32)
Despite its overall success this decade, Philadelphia has struggled in the games leading up to the open date, going 1-6 SU & 1-5 ATS. This year’s game is Sunday at New York.
PITTSBURGH
Straight Up: 7-9 44% (#19 of 32)
ATS: 5-10 33% (#29 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 8-8 50% (#16 of 32)
Much like it’s in-state neighbor, Pittsburgh as faltered in pre-bye week games, going 1-6 SU in its L7, and 2-7-1 ATS in its L10, making Seattle a potential opportunity on 10/7.
SAN DIEGO
Straight Up: 10-5 67% (#6 of 32)
ATS: 10-5 67% (#4 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 10-5 67% (#4 of 32)
Games before vacation have had little defensive influence for the Chargers, as the OVER is on runs of five straight and 10 of the L12.
SAN FRANCISCO
Straight Up: 13-4 76% (#1 of 32)
ATS: 11-5 69% (#3 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 9-8 53% (#13 of 32)
After a long run of success in pre-bye week games during the 90’s and early 00’s, the 49ers have lost three straight, including the last two at home.
SEATTLE
Straight Up: 13-4 76% (#1 of 32)
ATS: 9-7 56% (#9 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 9-8 53% (#13 of 32)
The Seahawks had an eight game pre-bye straight up winning streak broken in last year’s loss at Chicago. They’ll look to start anew on 10/21 vs. St Louis.
Straight Up: 7-10 41% (#21 of 32)
ATS: 8-7 53% (#13 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 12-5 71% (#1 of 32)
ST. LOUIS
The Rams have gone OVER the Total in six straight pre-bye week games, including five at home. This year, they host Cleveland on 10/28.
TAMPA BAY
Straight Up: 7-11 39% (#24 of 32)
ATS: 8-10 44% (#22 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 9-9 50% (#16 of 32)
John Gruden’s Buccaneers teams have converted five straight games ATS heading into the bye week. This year’s opponent: Arizona on 11/4.
TENNESSEE
Straight Up: 9-7 56% (#11 of 32)
ATS: 9-6 60% (#8 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 11-5 69% (#2 of 32)
The Titans were on a 4-1 SU & ATS run in pre-open date games prior to this past Monday’s game at New Orleans.
WASHINGTON
Straight Up: 7-10 41% (#21 of 32)
ATS: 5-11 31% (#31 of 32)
OVER-UNDER: 8-9 47% (#22 of 32)
Prior to this past Sunday’s game vs. New York, Washington had played just one pre-bye week home game this decade.