Jeff Saad of Las Vegas Sports Services
12/14: Sunday NFL Free Pick:
NY Jets at Titans. An ugly game between two awful offenses. At least the Jets have a good D-line on a 4-1 run under the total. The under is 5-1 in the Jets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and this shapes up as a 16-13 battle of field goals.
Play the NY Jets/Titans under the total.
12/14: Sunday NFL Free Pick:
NY Jets at Titans. An ugly game between two awful offenses. At least the Jets have a good D-line on a 4-1 run under the total. The under is 5-1 in the Jets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and this shapes up as a 16-13 battle of field goals.
Play the NY Jets/Titans under the total.
Mr. Vegas
Mr. Vegas Free SUNDAY pick 12/14: 4:25 PM ET
(329) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS (330) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Take: UNDER
Seattle is healthy once again on defense and it's showing as they have allowed 3, 3 and 14 points in their last 3 games respectively. The Seahawks are also 10-3 UNder the total against teams with winning records and 7-0 UNDER in their last seven games in December. And now they face a team in Sfo with not only offensive issues, but the issue with Harbaugh maybe leaving this team. The 49ers scored just 13 points against a bad Oakland team last week and in their last four games they have gone UNDER, scoring no more than 17 points in any one of those four. The 49ers offense is ranked 26th in points and 27th in passing. They face the 2nd best scoring defense and top overall rated defense in yards today. I wouldn't be surprised if the 49ers even get shutout here. Take the UNDER.
Mr. Vegas Free SUNDAY pick 12/14: 4:25 PM ET
(329) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS (330) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Take: UNDER
Seattle is healthy once again on defense and it's showing as they have allowed 3, 3 and 14 points in their last 3 games respectively. The Seahawks are also 10-3 UNder the total against teams with winning records and 7-0 UNDER in their last seven games in December. And now they face a team in Sfo with not only offensive issues, but the issue with Harbaugh maybe leaving this team. The 49ers scored just 13 points against a bad Oakland team last week and in their last four games they have gone UNDER, scoring no more than 17 points in any one of those four. The 49ers offense is ranked 26th in points and 27th in passing. They face the 2nd best scoring defense and top overall rated defense in yards today. I wouldn't be surprised if the 49ers even get shutout here. Take the UNDER.
Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Sunday 1:00 PM NCAAB
(825) ILLINOIS STATE at (826) DEPAUL
Take: (825) ILLINOIS STATE +2.5
I’ve enjoyed some success in games involving DePaul already this season, and I’ll be looking to try and beat the Blue Demons today.
Illinois State is a rather unimposing 4-3 thus far. But the Redbirds have played pretty well for the most part. They let a big early lead vanish in a loss to Utah State, but the other two defeats were narrow ones to quality opponents in Seton Hall and VCU. They’re not what I’d call outstanding at anything, but Illinois State has not real liabilities, either.
DePaul is good hit, no field. The Blue Demons can put the ball in the basket. But as usual DePaul plays defense like it’s a foreign concept, and that makes winning difficult anytime the shots aren’t falling with as much regularity as usual.
This game therefore fits one of my preferred tendencies, which is to take points with better defensive underdogs. I also favor Illinois State from a situational standpoint. The Redbirds have enjoyed a full week of prep for this in-state duel. The Blue Demons are limping back to Chicago after getting drilled a few nights back at George Washington.
DePaul probably qualified as a bit of an early season surprise, most notably off the impressive win over Stanford. But that was a terrific spot for the Blue Demons and I didn’t suddenly upgrade them off that nice victory.
This is still the same DePaul team I’m used to seeing. On their good nights they can be a handful but focus and fundamentals have been an ongoing problem for the Blue Demons throughout the Oliver Purnell regime.
Illinois State is not a worldbeater, but they’re the better team here and it’s a decent enough spot. I’ll opt to take the available points and will side with the Redbirds.
Bonus Play Sunday 1:00 PM NCAAB
(825) ILLINOIS STATE at (826) DEPAUL
Take: (825) ILLINOIS STATE +2.5
I’ve enjoyed some success in games involving DePaul already this season, and I’ll be looking to try and beat the Blue Demons today.
Illinois State is a rather unimposing 4-3 thus far. But the Redbirds have played pretty well for the most part. They let a big early lead vanish in a loss to Utah State, but the other two defeats were narrow ones to quality opponents in Seton Hall and VCU. They’re not what I’d call outstanding at anything, but Illinois State has not real liabilities, either.
DePaul is good hit, no field. The Blue Demons can put the ball in the basket. But as usual DePaul plays defense like it’s a foreign concept, and that makes winning difficult anytime the shots aren’t falling with as much regularity as usual.
This game therefore fits one of my preferred tendencies, which is to take points with better defensive underdogs. I also favor Illinois State from a situational standpoint. The Redbirds have enjoyed a full week of prep for this in-state duel. The Blue Demons are limping back to Chicago after getting drilled a few nights back at George Washington.
DePaul probably qualified as a bit of an early season surprise, most notably off the impressive win over Stanford. But that was a terrific spot for the Blue Demons and I didn’t suddenly upgrade them off that nice victory.
This is still the same DePaul team I’m used to seeing. On their good nights they can be a handful but focus and fundamentals have been an ongoing problem for the Blue Demons throughout the Oliver Purnell regime.
Illinois State is not a worldbeater, but they’re the better team here and it’s a decent enough spot. I’ll opt to take the available points and will side with the Redbirds.
Jim Feist
Comp Pick for Sunday, December 14, 2014: 1:00 PM ET
(315) MIAMI DOLPHINS VS (316) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Take: (316) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, December 14, 2014 is in the NFL contest between the Miami Dolphins and NE Patriots. The Dolphins are a decent team this year but they never have seemed to do well in Winter up North. Now they travel to New England where the weather should be nice, but cold, around 30-38 degrees during the game. The Bills lost big at Baltimore last week, 28-13. Their offense is 12th in scoring, but only 21st in yards while the defense is 6th overall, but 22nd against the run. The Patriots offense is clicking once again behind Brady, ranked 3rd in scoring (30.8 ppg) and seventh in passing. The defense is actually good this year, ranked 9th in points and 13th in yards. The defense has held their last two opponents to 14 or fewer points. The Patriots have also covered five of the last six and seven of the last nine. Miami doesn't like December games, going 0-4 ATS their last four times in the month. The home team has covered the last five in this series and today the Dolphins offense will have trouble staying with the Patriots. Lay the points here with the Patriots.
Comp Pick for Sunday, December 14, 2014: 1:00 PM ET
(315) MIAMI DOLPHINS VS (316) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Take: (316) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, December 14, 2014 is in the NFL contest between the Miami Dolphins and NE Patriots. The Dolphins are a decent team this year but they never have seemed to do well in Winter up North. Now they travel to New England where the weather should be nice, but cold, around 30-38 degrees during the game. The Bills lost big at Baltimore last week, 28-13. Their offense is 12th in scoring, but only 21st in yards while the defense is 6th overall, but 22nd against the run. The Patriots offense is clicking once again behind Brady, ranked 3rd in scoring (30.8 ppg) and seventh in passing. The defense is actually good this year, ranked 9th in points and 13th in yards. The defense has held their last two opponents to 14 or fewer points. The Patriots have also covered five of the last six and seven of the last nine. Miami doesn't like December games, going 0-4 ATS their last four times in the month. The home team has covered the last five in this series and today the Dolphins offense will have trouble staying with the Patriots. Lay the points here with the Patriots.
Jack Jones
Washington Redskins vs. NY Giants
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Washington Redskins +7
This is one of my favorite situations in the NFL. I like to back teams that are coming off blowout losses against teams that are coming off blowout wins. The public perception coming into these games is that the team coming off a blowout win is really good, while the team coming off a blowout loss is terrible.
This makes the betting public quick to back the team coming off a blowout win. Oddsmakers know this, and thus they are forced to set the number in favor of the team off the blowout win, providing a ton of line value for sharp bettors to back the team coming off the blowout loss.
There’s no question in my mind that there is value in backing the Redskins this week, and I would argue that they are the better team despite having a worse record. That really shows up in their numbers this season as they are nowhere near as bad as their 3-10 record would indicate.
The Giants may not be as bad as their 4-9 record either, but they are being treated like an elite team here with this 7-point spread. When you factor in three points for home-field advantage, that means the Giants would be a 4-point favorite on a neutral field. The Giants are not four points better than the Redskins, period.
Washington actually ranks 11th in the NFL in yardage differential this season, outgaining teams by an average of 14.7 yards per game. It ranks ahead of playoff contenders like Dallas, Green Bay, San Francisco, San Diego, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Arizona in this department. Of the top 17 teams in yardage differential, only two of them have losing records. They are the Redskins and Saints, who are also an underrated team at this point in the season.
New York ranks just 21st in yardage differential, getting outgained by 19.8 yards per game. It is getting a lot of respect here due to its 36-7 win at Tennessee last week, but everyone is blowing out the Titans these days. The Giants had lost six in a row prior to that win, including a 24-25 loss at Jacksonville the week prior. They aren’t all of a sudden an elite team, and they still don’t have anything to play for at 4-9. They could easily suffer a letdown this week after finally putting an end to their six-game skid.
Washington wants revenge for its 14-45 home loss to the Giants on September 25th. The Redskins have played the Giants tough outside of that game, going 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS in their last seven meetings. They have only lost twice by more than seven points in their last eight meetings with the Giants. These division rivalry games are always played closer to the vest, and the Redskins will have no problem getting up off the mat and trying to get a win this week.
Plays on road teams (WASHINGTON) – after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 37-12 (75.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Washington is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games in the second half of the season against terrible defensive teams that allow 6.0 or more yards per play. The Giants ranks 22nd in scoring defense (25.1 points/game) and 23rd in total defense (371.3 yards/game). The Redskins are 38-22 ATS in their last 60 road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. Bet the Redskins Sunday.
Washington Redskins vs. NY Giants
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Washington Redskins +7
This is one of my favorite situations in the NFL. I like to back teams that are coming off blowout losses against teams that are coming off blowout wins. The public perception coming into these games is that the team coming off a blowout win is really good, while the team coming off a blowout loss is terrible.
This makes the betting public quick to back the team coming off a blowout win. Oddsmakers know this, and thus they are forced to set the number in favor of the team off the blowout win, providing a ton of line value for sharp bettors to back the team coming off the blowout loss.
There’s no question in my mind that there is value in backing the Redskins this week, and I would argue that they are the better team despite having a worse record. That really shows up in their numbers this season as they are nowhere near as bad as their 3-10 record would indicate.
The Giants may not be as bad as their 4-9 record either, but they are being treated like an elite team here with this 7-point spread. When you factor in three points for home-field advantage, that means the Giants would be a 4-point favorite on a neutral field. The Giants are not four points better than the Redskins, period.
Washington actually ranks 11th in the NFL in yardage differential this season, outgaining teams by an average of 14.7 yards per game. It ranks ahead of playoff contenders like Dallas, Green Bay, San Francisco, San Diego, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Arizona in this department. Of the top 17 teams in yardage differential, only two of them have losing records. They are the Redskins and Saints, who are also an underrated team at this point in the season.
New York ranks just 21st in yardage differential, getting outgained by 19.8 yards per game. It is getting a lot of respect here due to its 36-7 win at Tennessee last week, but everyone is blowing out the Titans these days. The Giants had lost six in a row prior to that win, including a 24-25 loss at Jacksonville the week prior. They aren’t all of a sudden an elite team, and they still don’t have anything to play for at 4-9. They could easily suffer a letdown this week after finally putting an end to their six-game skid.
Washington wants revenge for its 14-45 home loss to the Giants on September 25th. The Redskins have played the Giants tough outside of that game, going 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS in their last seven meetings. They have only lost twice by more than seven points in their last eight meetings with the Giants. These division rivalry games are always played closer to the vest, and the Redskins will have no problem getting up off the mat and trying to get a win this week.
Plays on road teams (WASHINGTON) – after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 37-12 (75.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Washington is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games in the second half of the season against terrible defensive teams that allow 6.0 or more yards per play. The Giants ranks 22nd in scoring defense (25.1 points/game) and 23rd in total defense (371.3 yards/game). The Redskins are 38-22 ATS in their last 60 road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. Bet the Redskins Sunday.
Marc Lawrence
Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play - Oakland Raiders.
Edges - Raiders: 13-2 ATS in division games off an NFC contest; and 6-1 SUATS last seven games here. Chiefs: 3-12 SU and 2-13 ATS last fifteen games as a division favorite. With interim Oakland head coach Tony Sparano anxious to earn earn the permanent position, and 7-1 ATS in his NFL career as a division road dog, we recommend a 1-unit play on Oakland. Thank you and good luck as always.
Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play - Oakland Raiders.
Edges - Raiders: 13-2 ATS in division games off an NFC contest; and 6-1 SUATS last seven games here. Chiefs: 3-12 SU and 2-13 ATS last fifteen games as a division favorite. With interim Oakland head coach Tony Sparano anxious to earn earn the permanent position, and 7-1 ATS in his NFL career as a division road dog, we recommend a 1-unit play on Oakland. Thank you and good luck as always.
Jimmy Boyd
Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills
Free Pick on Buffalo Bills +
As difficult as it may be to go against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers right now, I think the Bills are showing some solid value here as a home underdog. All three of Green Bay’s losses this season have come on the road and their only win away from home by more than 5-points was at Chicago back in Week 4.
Not only have the Packers not been near as impressive on the road as they have at home, they find themselves in a tough spot. Green Bay will be working on short rest after facing Atlanta on Monday Night Football. The Falcons no huddle attack clearly wore down the Packers defense and I look for Green Bay to struggle defensively here against the Bills. Backing this theory up is the fact that the Packers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night game.
Adding to the concerns with the Packers defense is their secondary was torched for 375 and 4 touchdowns by Matt Ryan and a lot of those yards came after Green Bay had built up a 24-point lead and knew the Falcons were going to be airing it out. Kyle Orton just completed 38 attempts for 355 yards against the Broncos last week, so expect to see Buffalo looking to air it out early and often in this one.
You also have to factor in that Buffalo has the defense to keep Rodgers and the Packers high-powered attack in check. The Bills come in ranked 8th against the run (99.2 ypg) and 5th against the pass (212.8 ypg). They went into Denver and held the Broncos to just 306 yards of total offense last week. What really stands out is they held Peyton Manning to just 173 yards passing and no touchdowns, snapping Manning’s streak of 51 straight games with at least 1 touchdown pass.
It’s also worth noting that the 24-points the Bills allowed to the Broncos was the most they have given up in their last 7 games. With the way the Packers are struggling defensively against the pass, I think Buffalo not only has what it takes to keep this close enough to cover, but I could easily see them winning this game outright.
There’s a strong system in play backing a fade of Green Bay. Road teams who scored 30 or more points in their last game against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half of their last game are just 47-89 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Bills. Take Buffalo!
Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills
Free Pick on Buffalo Bills +
As difficult as it may be to go against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers right now, I think the Bills are showing some solid value here as a home underdog. All three of Green Bay’s losses this season have come on the road and their only win away from home by more than 5-points was at Chicago back in Week 4.
Not only have the Packers not been near as impressive on the road as they have at home, they find themselves in a tough spot. Green Bay will be working on short rest after facing Atlanta on Monday Night Football. The Falcons no huddle attack clearly wore down the Packers defense and I look for Green Bay to struggle defensively here against the Bills. Backing this theory up is the fact that the Packers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night game.
Adding to the concerns with the Packers defense is their secondary was torched for 375 and 4 touchdowns by Matt Ryan and a lot of those yards came after Green Bay had built up a 24-point lead and knew the Falcons were going to be airing it out. Kyle Orton just completed 38 attempts for 355 yards against the Broncos last week, so expect to see Buffalo looking to air it out early and often in this one.
You also have to factor in that Buffalo has the defense to keep Rodgers and the Packers high-powered attack in check. The Bills come in ranked 8th against the run (99.2 ypg) and 5th against the pass (212.8 ypg). They went into Denver and held the Broncos to just 306 yards of total offense last week. What really stands out is they held Peyton Manning to just 173 yards passing and no touchdowns, snapping Manning’s streak of 51 straight games with at least 1 touchdown pass.
It’s also worth noting that the 24-points the Bills allowed to the Broncos was the most they have given up in their last 7 games. With the way the Packers are struggling defensively against the pass, I think Buffalo not only has what it takes to keep this close enough to cover, but I could easily see them winning this game outright.
There’s a strong system in play backing a fade of Green Bay. Road teams who scored 30 or more points in their last game against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half of their last game are just 47-89 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Bills. Take Buffalo!
Jimmy Boyd
Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills
Free Pick on Buffalo Bills +
As difficult as it may be to go against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers right now, I think the Bills are showing some solid value here as a home underdog. All three of Green Bay’s losses this season have come on the road and their only win away from home by more than 5-points was at Chicago back in Week 4.
Not only have the Packers not been near as impressive on the road as they have at home, they find themselves in a tough spot. Green Bay will be working on short rest after facing Atlanta on Monday Night Football. The Falcons no huddle attack clearly wore down the Packers defense and I look for Green Bay to struggle defensively here against the Bills. Backing this theory up is the fact that the Packers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night game.
Adding to the concerns with the Packers defense is their secondary was torched for 375 and 4 touchdowns by Matt Ryan and a lot of those yards came after Green Bay had built up a 24-point lead and knew the Falcons were going to be airing it out. Kyle Orton just completed 38 attempts for 355 yards against the Broncos last week, so expect to see Buffalo looking to air it out early and often in this one.
You also have to factor in that Buffalo has the defense to keep Rodgers and the Packers high-powered attack in check. The Bills come in ranked 8th against the run (99.2 ypg) and 5th against the pass (212.8 ypg). They went into Denver and held the Broncos to just 306 yards of total offense last week. What really stands out is they held Peyton Manning to just 173 yards passing and no touchdowns, snapping Manning’s streak of 51 straight games with at least 1 touchdown pass.
It’s also worth noting that the 24-points the Bills allowed to the Broncos was the most they have given up in their last 7 games. With the way the Packers are struggling defensively against the pass, I think Buffalo not only has what it takes to keep this close enough to cover, but I could easily see them winning this game outright.
There’s a strong system in play backing a fade of Green Bay. Road teams who scored 30 or more points in their last game against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half of their last game are just 47-89 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Bills. Take Buffalo!
Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills
Free Pick on Buffalo Bills +
As difficult as it may be to go against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers right now, I think the Bills are showing some solid value here as a home underdog. All three of Green Bay’s losses this season have come on the road and their only win away from home by more than 5-points was at Chicago back in Week 4.
Not only have the Packers not been near as impressive on the road as they have at home, they find themselves in a tough spot. Green Bay will be working on short rest after facing Atlanta on Monday Night Football. The Falcons no huddle attack clearly wore down the Packers defense and I look for Green Bay to struggle defensively here against the Bills. Backing this theory up is the fact that the Packers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night game.
Adding to the concerns with the Packers defense is their secondary was torched for 375 and 4 touchdowns by Matt Ryan and a lot of those yards came after Green Bay had built up a 24-point lead and knew the Falcons were going to be airing it out. Kyle Orton just completed 38 attempts for 355 yards against the Broncos last week, so expect to see Buffalo looking to air it out early and often in this one.
You also have to factor in that Buffalo has the defense to keep Rodgers and the Packers high-powered attack in check. The Bills come in ranked 8th against the run (99.2 ypg) and 5th against the pass (212.8 ypg). They went into Denver and held the Broncos to just 306 yards of total offense last week. What really stands out is they held Peyton Manning to just 173 yards passing and no touchdowns, snapping Manning’s streak of 51 straight games with at least 1 touchdown pass.
It’s also worth noting that the 24-points the Bills allowed to the Broncos was the most they have given up in their last 7 games. With the way the Packers are struggling defensively against the pass, I think Buffalo not only has what it takes to keep this close enough to cover, but I could easily see them winning this game outright.
There’s a strong system in play backing a fade of Green Bay. Road teams who scored 30 or more points in their last game against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half of their last game are just 47-89 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Bills. Take Buffalo!
Steve Janus
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday's Free NFL Pick --Pittsburgh Steelers -3---
The Falcons are getting a little too much respect here at home against the Steelers. Atlanta is in a difficult spot here as they come in on short rest after playing at Green Bay on Monday Night Football. Keeping it close enough to cover against the Packers is also playing into this line. What is getting overlooked is the injury to star wide out Julio Jones, who has been the only consistent weapon on the outside for Matt Ryan. Jones is questionable and it doesn't look like he's going to play and even if he does he doesn't figure to be at 100%. Without Jones at full strength, Atlanta has little to no chance of being able to go score for score with the Steelers, as they just aren't strong enough defensively to keep Pittsburgh from scoring at will The Steelers have one of the top offenses in the league, as they come in 2nd in passing (303.2 ypg) and 8th in rushing (123.8 ypg). Atlanta is dead last against the pass (287.8 ypg) and dead last in total defense (410.8 ypg). Look for Pittsburgh to take control of this one early and cruise to an easy win and cover.
System - Underdogs with a defense that is allowing 5.4 or more yards/play after gaining 450 or more yards of total offense in each of their last 2 games are just 22-48 (31%) ATS since 1983. BET THE STEELERS -3!
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday's Free NFL Pick --Pittsburgh Steelers -3---
The Falcons are getting a little too much respect here at home against the Steelers. Atlanta is in a difficult spot here as they come in on short rest after playing at Green Bay on Monday Night Football. Keeping it close enough to cover against the Packers is also playing into this line. What is getting overlooked is the injury to star wide out Julio Jones, who has been the only consistent weapon on the outside for Matt Ryan. Jones is questionable and it doesn't look like he's going to play and even if he does he doesn't figure to be at 100%. Without Jones at full strength, Atlanta has little to no chance of being able to go score for score with the Steelers, as they just aren't strong enough defensively to keep Pittsburgh from scoring at will The Steelers have one of the top offenses in the league, as they come in 2nd in passing (303.2 ypg) and 8th in rushing (123.8 ypg). Atlanta is dead last against the pass (287.8 ypg) and dead last in total defense (410.8 ypg). Look for Pittsburgh to take control of this one early and cruise to an easy win and cover.
System - Underdogs with a defense that is allowing 5.4 or more yards/play after gaining 450 or more yards of total offense in each of their last 2 games are just 22-48 (31%) ATS since 1983. BET THE STEELERS -3!
Brad Diamond
Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers
Bonus Play: San Diego+ (325) over Denver @ 4:25 Eastern
We like to find teams that are playing 100% at this time of the campaign. For sure, the Chargers (8-5) are one of those units, but the heart breaking defeat vs. New England leaves us worrying about their emotional level vs. hard driving Denver (10-3). The line opened at -3-1/2 and has been driven up to -4 early on Monday. The Broncos have won three straight vs. Miami, Kansas City and Buffalo. Denver is in a little funk ATS going 1-3 coming into action vs. San Diego. Back in October Denver (-9) defeated the Chargers in Denver 35-21. But, San Diego has their last home game in the cue and would like nothing better than to disperse of the famed Peyton Manning and company. More importantly keeping their fading playoff hopes alive with just three games left vs. the aforementioned Broncos, Chiefs (A) and Niners (A) is of greater importance. Technically, we find support for San Diego in a Denver deficit as the Broncos visit knowing they are 10-21 ATS in road games vs. a unit carry a >.500 home mark. In addition, Denver is 1-6 ATS in Week #15 which is a solid indicator that they are playing with decreased emotion considering their winning record SU. Further, Denver is 5-11-2 ATS L18 battles with home standing Chargers. We close with San Diego 5-2 ATS in their last seven meeting against Denver…TAKE THE POINTS.
Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers
Bonus Play: San Diego+ (325) over Denver @ 4:25 Eastern
We like to find teams that are playing 100% at this time of the campaign. For sure, the Chargers (8-5) are one of those units, but the heart breaking defeat vs. New England leaves us worrying about their emotional level vs. hard driving Denver (10-3). The line opened at -3-1/2 and has been driven up to -4 early on Monday. The Broncos have won three straight vs. Miami, Kansas City and Buffalo. Denver is in a little funk ATS going 1-3 coming into action vs. San Diego. Back in October Denver (-9) defeated the Chargers in Denver 35-21. But, San Diego has their last home game in the cue and would like nothing better than to disperse of the famed Peyton Manning and company. More importantly keeping their fading playoff hopes alive with just three games left vs. the aforementioned Broncos, Chiefs (A) and Niners (A) is of greater importance. Technically, we find support for San Diego in a Denver deficit as the Broncos visit knowing they are 10-21 ATS in road games vs. a unit carry a >.500 home mark. In addition, Denver is 1-6 ATS in Week #15 which is a solid indicator that they are playing with decreased emotion considering their winning record SU. Further, Denver is 5-11-2 ATS L18 battles with home standing Chargers. We close with San Diego 5-2 ATS in their last seven meeting against Denver…TAKE THE POINTS.
Tony George
Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers
FREE PRO PICK ON THE UNDER 50.5 to 51
San Diego has peaked and is now sliding, however their defense is playing exceptional, just ask the Patriots who struggled with their high octane offense last week for most of the game on Sunday Night. Denver already handed the Chargers a defeat 35-21 in Denver earlier this season, but I see a different scoring output in this one.
If the Chargers thought the Pats defense was tough to move the ball on, what about Denver’s? Manning off a no TD performance for the first time in 50+ games last week, and he will be looking to atone this weekend for that but the sledding will be tough, and the Chargers can shut down a run, again just ask the Pats. The Chargers frustrated Brady all night long last week and they have a history of making things tough on Denver at home. Denver also has a better OL than New England for running the ball and they will run it and attempt to eat the clock and balance their attack, and you know San Diego will want to run Matthews to keep Denver's offense off the field as well. All this adds up to a lower scoring game than the first go around and I see a 24-20 , 20-14 type ballgame here.
Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers
FREE PRO PICK ON THE UNDER 50.5 to 51
San Diego has peaked and is now sliding, however their defense is playing exceptional, just ask the Patriots who struggled with their high octane offense last week for most of the game on Sunday Night. Denver already handed the Chargers a defeat 35-21 in Denver earlier this season, but I see a different scoring output in this one.
If the Chargers thought the Pats defense was tough to move the ball on, what about Denver’s? Manning off a no TD performance for the first time in 50+ games last week, and he will be looking to atone this weekend for that but the sledding will be tough, and the Chargers can shut down a run, again just ask the Pats. The Chargers frustrated Brady all night long last week and they have a history of making things tough on Denver at home. Denver also has a better OL than New England for running the ball and they will run it and attempt to eat the clock and balance their attack, and you know San Diego will want to run Matthews to keep Denver's offense off the field as well. All this adds up to a lower scoring game than the first go around and I see a 24-20 , 20-14 type ballgame here.
Jesse Schule
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Free NFL play PIT@ATL to go OVER the total.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are an offensive juggernaut, and one of the NFL's highest scoring teams. They rank 2nd overall in passing yards, and last week they piled up 42 points in a win on the road at Cincy. Big Ben and the Steelers will be in Atlanta on Sunday, taking on the Falcons in the dome. We saw the Falcons in action on Monday Night Football, and we have to give them full marks for making that game interesting.
Green Bay's punter didn't get much face time though, as Atlanta's woeful defense wasn't able to stop a single Packers scoring drive. The Falcons rank dead last in the NFL against the pass, allowing opponents to average 287 passing yards per game. That's a scary thought facing a Pittsburgh QB that has twice this season thrown six TDs in a single game.
Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are really in the zone right now, and Ryan threw for 375 yards and four TDs against Green Bay. He threw for 361 yards and a pair of TDs the week prior at home against the Arizona Cardinals. Jones has accounted for 448 of those yards and two of those TDs against Green Bay and Arizona.
Pittsburgh's last trip to Atlanta was back in 2006, and that game was a real shootout, with the Falcons winning 41-38. The Falcons have seen the total go over in 11 of their last 16 home games, while the Steelers have seen the total go over in six of their last seven overall.
This game should be a real offensive slugfest.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Free NFL play PIT@ATL to go OVER the total.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are an offensive juggernaut, and one of the NFL's highest scoring teams. They rank 2nd overall in passing yards, and last week they piled up 42 points in a win on the road at Cincy. Big Ben and the Steelers will be in Atlanta on Sunday, taking on the Falcons in the dome. We saw the Falcons in action on Monday Night Football, and we have to give them full marks for making that game interesting.
Green Bay's punter didn't get much face time though, as Atlanta's woeful defense wasn't able to stop a single Packers scoring drive. The Falcons rank dead last in the NFL against the pass, allowing opponents to average 287 passing yards per game. That's a scary thought facing a Pittsburgh QB that has twice this season thrown six TDs in a single game.
Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are really in the zone right now, and Ryan threw for 375 yards and four TDs against Green Bay. He threw for 361 yards and a pair of TDs the week prior at home against the Arizona Cardinals. Jones has accounted for 448 of those yards and two of those TDs against Green Bay and Arizona.
Pittsburgh's last trip to Atlanta was back in 2006, and that game was a real shootout, with the Falcons winning 41-38. The Falcons have seen the total go over in 11 of their last 16 home games, while the Steelers have seen the total go over in six of their last seven overall.
This game should be a real offensive slugfest.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
Doc's Sports
Utah Jazz vs. Washington Wizards
Bonus Play Washington Wizards
The Wizards are playing really well right now, and we think they should have no problem dominating this matchup against a Utah team that has been a big disappointment to this point of the season. The Jazz have been an underdog of 10 or more points three times this season, and they are 0-3 ATS thus far in this spot. Washington has been dominant at home as they are 11-2 here on the season. Utah is 2-8 on the road. The Wizards have pretty much taken care of bad teams at home. They have won three of their last five home games by 16 or more points (Heat, Lakers and Nuggets), and they beat the Clippers here last time out on Friday by eight. They never trailed in that game against the Clippers, who had been on a long winning streak heading into the game, and lead by as many as 18 during the game. This team is playing as well as anyone in the East right now, and they aren’t taking lesser opponents lightly and are playing hard every night. This one looks like a blowout to us. The Wizards match up really well here, and we think this line should be 13+.
Utah Jazz vs. Washington Wizards
Bonus Play Washington Wizards
The Wizards are playing really well right now, and we think they should have no problem dominating this matchup against a Utah team that has been a big disappointment to this point of the season. The Jazz have been an underdog of 10 or more points three times this season, and they are 0-3 ATS thus far in this spot. Washington has been dominant at home as they are 11-2 here on the season. Utah is 2-8 on the road. The Wizards have pretty much taken care of bad teams at home. They have won three of their last five home games by 16 or more points (Heat, Lakers and Nuggets), and they beat the Clippers here last time out on Friday by eight. They never trailed in that game against the Clippers, who had been on a long winning streak heading into the game, and lead by as many as 18 during the game. This team is playing as well as anyone in the East right now, and they aren’t taking lesser opponents lightly and are playing hard every night. This one looks like a blowout to us. The Wizards match up really well here, and we think this line should be 13+.
Art Aronson
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens
1* Bonus Play Jacksonville Jaguars.
While I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset here, I do definitely feel that the visitors can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Ravens came out of their bye and beat the Saints before then dropping a tough 34-33 game to San Diego. Baltimore recovered on the road last weekend though to beat the Dolphins 28-13. But with a game on the road next week in Houston and then to end the season at home vs. the Browns, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side coming into this contest with its mind on other things than the lowly Jaguars. This does indeed set up as a pretty nice situational play. Jacksonville is looking to close the season on a positive note; after beating the Giants 25-24, the Jags would fall 27-13 to Houston last Sunday. Obviously I’m not going to try and convince you that the Jaguars are a good team, they’re not. Clearly Jacksonville is still a couple of years off before anyone will start taking it seriously again, however I do think this is a great spot we can take advantage of; note that the Jaguars are 2-1 ATS this season off a loss vs. a conference rival and 5-3 ATS in the same position over the last two. And note that the Ravens have traditionally tanked for bettors at this time of year, they’re just 3-7 ATS the last two seasons in the month of December. An interesting matchup for sure, I think that JACKSONVILLE is worth a second look in this one.
AAA Sports
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens
1* Bonus Play Jacksonville Jaguars.
While I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset here, I do definitely feel that the visitors can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Ravens came out of their bye and beat the Saints before then dropping a tough 34-33 game to San Diego. Baltimore recovered on the road last weekend though to beat the Dolphins 28-13. But with a game on the road next week in Houston and then to end the season at home vs. the Browns, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side coming into this contest with its mind on other things than the lowly Jaguars. This does indeed set up as a pretty nice situational play. Jacksonville is looking to close the season on a positive note; after beating the Giants 25-24, the Jags would fall 27-13 to Houston last Sunday. Obviously I’m not going to try and convince you that the Jaguars are a good team, they’re not. Clearly Jacksonville is still a couple of years off before anyone will start taking it seriously again, however I do think this is a great spot we can take advantage of; note that the Jaguars are 2-1 ATS this season off a loss vs. a conference rival and 5-3 ATS in the same position over the last two. And note that the Ravens have traditionally tanked for bettors at this time of year, they’re just 3-7 ATS the last two seasons in the month of December. An interesting matchup for sure, I think that JACKSONVILLE is worth a second look in this one.
AAA Sports
Joseph D'Amico
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Bonus Play Detroit Lions, game 324.
With this line moving to just 7 points, it is a must that you play the Detroit Lions. As you know Minnesota was officially eliminated from playoff contention and now has nothing to play for. Detroit, at 9-4comes off of the decisive victories over division rivals, Chicago and Tampa Bay. In the earlier meeting back in October, Detroit controlled the game winning 17-3. Please take note that Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush did not play in that contest and Detroit missed two field goals. Now both are back and the special-teams is right on track as well. Let's not forget that they had three interceptions on Teddy Bridgewater in that matchup. The Lions need every win they can get right now and the way they dominated their division going 3-0, this looks like a sure thing for the team. The Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson connection is back in full swing while the Detroit defense ranked #1 in points allowed, #1 against the rush, and 2nd in total yards. This is the best defense in the League that no one knows about. The Lions are 5-1 ATS their L6 vs. the NFC North, and 5-2 ATS their L7 games played at home. Take Detroit. Thank you.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Bonus Play Detroit Lions, game 324.
With this line moving to just 7 points, it is a must that you play the Detroit Lions. As you know Minnesota was officially eliminated from playoff contention and now has nothing to play for. Detroit, at 9-4comes off of the decisive victories over division rivals, Chicago and Tampa Bay. In the earlier meeting back in October, Detroit controlled the game winning 17-3. Please take note that Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush did not play in that contest and Detroit missed two field goals. Now both are back and the special-teams is right on track as well. Let's not forget that they had three interceptions on Teddy Bridgewater in that matchup. The Lions need every win they can get right now and the way they dominated their division going 3-0, this looks like a sure thing for the team. The Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson connection is back in full swing while the Detroit defense ranked #1 in points allowed, #1 against the rush, and 2nd in total yards. This is the best defense in the League that no one knows about. The Lions are 5-1 ATS their L6 vs. the NFC North, and 5-2 ATS their L7 games played at home. Take Detroit. Thank you.
