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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 15
By Matty Simo

LAS VEGAS – The highly-anticipated first career start for Cleveland Browns rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel in a key Week 15 AFC North matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals has certainly gotten the attention of bettors. The Browns-Bengals game opened with Cincinnati as a 1.5-point road favorite but has since swung the other way with Cleveland now -1 at The Wynn sportsbook in Las Vegas.

The Browns won the first meeting with the Bengals on the road 24-3 in Week 10 as 6.5-point underdogs, and both teams are still battling for the division title. Manziel, the former Heisman Trophy winner from Texas A&M, is getting the nod Sunday largely because former starter Brian Hoyer has been ineffective. Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said NFL bettors have already started jumping on the Manziel money train at his property before it’s even gotten out of the gate.

“They are, and I don’t know why they are,” Avello said. “Cincinnati’s had their issues this year, there’s no question about that. But before the game against Pittsburgh last week, they were playing fairly well, winning three games in a row. Offense seemed to spark up a little, defense was fairly solid.

“Now Johnny Manziel steps in, and Cincinnati did lose to this team badly the first time they played them. So there’s no lack of motivation here, that’s for sure, to stay in the hunt. Personally, I think the Browns are out, and the Browns think they’re out, that’s why they’re using Manziel. This is the end of (Hoyer's) contract, they’re probably not going to re-sign him. This is a chance to see what Manziel can do.”

Avello also said the limited action Manziel has seen on the field so far in relief of Hoyer was not enough to warrant opening Cleveland as a home favorite here in this spot. However, bettors have disagreed with him so far. “I haven’t seen enough of him in the NFL at this point and this early in his career, to make him a favorite over a team like this,” Avello said. “The players see it, I don’t.”

Other than that, there are also a few other important divisional games in Week 15, including the New England Patriots (-7.5) hosting the Miami Dolphins in the AFC East, the Denver Broncos (-4) visiting the San Diego Chargers in the AFC West and the Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) facing the Houston Texans in the AFC South. The Patriots, Broncos and Colts can all clinch their respective divisions with wins on Sunday.

“Indianapolis-Houston is an okay game because Houston is still fighting in the division,” Avello said. “Denver-San Diego is a decent game, Miami-New England is a decent game. But there’s a lot of junk on the schedule. The slate itself is not that great when you look at it. Oakland-Kansas City, Jacksonville-Baltimore, Tampa Bay-Carolina, Jets-Tennessee, some bad games this week.”

One of those bad games Avello mentioned has the Tennessee Titans playing the New York Jets at home. The Jets have dropped 11 of their past 12 games yet have still been bet up from a 1-point road favorite to -2.5 (-120) at The Wynn in early wagering this week. The Titans have also lost 11 of 12 and will be starting Jake Locker at QB again due to a shoulder injury to rookie Zach Mettenberger.

Two more divisional matchups in the NFC figure to peak bettors’ interest, with the San Francisco 49ers visiting the Seattle Seahawks (-10) in the NFC West and the Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) hosting the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East on Sunday Night Football. Both games are the second of two meetings, with the first won by the road teams, and each taking place just two weeks ago on Thanksgiving.

“Dallas-Philly is a good game,” Avello said. “San Francisco, they might be dead, I don’t know. Maybe it’s over for them, we’re going to find out this week.”


Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 15 Betting Moves

Rotation Team Open Current Move

305 RAIDERS - - -
306 CHIEFS 9.5 10 0.5
307 JAGUARS - - -
308 RAVENS 12.5 13.5 1
309 STEELERS 0 2 2
310 FALCONS - - -
311 TEXANS - - -
312 COLTS 7 6.5 -0.5
313 BENGALS - - -
314 BROWNS 0 1 1
315 DOLPHINS - - -
316 PATRIOTS 7.5 7.5 0
317 BUCCANEERS - - -
318 PANTHERS 5.5 3.5 -2
319 REDSKINS - - -
320 GIANTS 6.5 6.5 0
321 PACKERS 6 4.5 -1.5
322 BILLS - - -
323 VIKINGS - - -
324 LIONS 7 7 0
325 JETS - 3 -
326 TITANS 2 - -5
327 BRONCOS 3.5 4 0.5
328 CHARGERS - - -
329 49ERS - - -
330 SEAHAWKS 7.5 10 2.5
331 COWBOYS - - -
332 EAGLES 3.5 3.5 0
333 SAINTS 3 3 0
334 BEARS - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 15
By Chris David

Week 14 Recap

Even though the week started and ended with a pair of shootouts – Dallas 41 Chicago 28 and Green Bay 43 Atlanta 37 -- the ‘under’ still managed to produce a 10-6 record in Week 14. On the season, the ‘under’ has gone 104-103-1.

System Check

Nothing’s guaranteed in this business and those following the “Thursday Night Total” system last Sunday were well aware of that. For those new to VI and this weekly piece, all you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Since the 49ers hosted the Seahawks on Thanksgiving Day in the primetime affair, the system called for an ‘over’ bet in San Francisco’s ensuing game.

Unfortunately, Oakland defeated San Francisco 24-13 last Sunday and the combined 37 points fell ‘under’ the closing total of 40 ½. Some shops closed at 40 and I’m sure a handful of bettors were upset that the Raiders didn’t kick a late field goal. While that move was a little questionable, your frustration should clearly be directed at San Francisco.

As former Arizona Cardinals head coach Dennis Green once uttered, “They are what we thought they were….”

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has looked horrendous at times this season and he deserves a lot of the blame but at some point you have to look at the coaching. To put things in perspective, San Francisco is averaging 5.8 points in the second-half of games this season, which is tied with the New York Jets for the worst scoring output.

Jim Harbaugh receives a lot of attention and I believe he’s a good coach, but where are the adjustments? You could easily argue that this year’s offense has more skilled players than the last three San Francisco teams that all went to the NFC Championship.

Despite the 49ers-Raiders going ‘under’ last Sunday, the ‘over’ angle still owns an impressive 9-3 (75%) mark this season and 24-5-1 (82.7%) dating back to last year.

This week, the angle applies to the Monday matchup between the Saints and Bears since Chicago hosted Dallas at Soldier Field in Thursday’s Week 14 matchup.

Shout out to Shutouts

In last week’s installment, I touched on shutouts in the NFL and how rare they occur. We’ve seen six shutouts this season, which are listed below.

Week 5 - Jets 0 at Chargers 31 (Lost 17-31 vs. Denver)
Week 6 - Giants 0 at Eagles 27 (Lost 21-31 at Dallas)
Week 7 - Bengals 0 at Colts 27 (Won 27-24 vs. Baltimore)
Week 9 - Chargers 0 at Dolphins 37 (Won 13-6 vs. Oakland)
Week 13 - Raiders 0 at Rams 52 (Won 24-13 vs. San Francisco)
Week 14 – Redskins 0 vs. Rams 24 (Pending at N.Y. Giants)

Based on the above, you can see that teams have rebounded off the humbling loss this season with decent offensive outputs. Teams off shutout losses are averaging 20.6 points per game in their next game.

Washington fits this week when it visits the N.Y. Giants. Normally I wouldn’t tell you to back the Redskins considering how much of a mess they are but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them eclipse their team total (20 ½) on Sunday. Make a note that Washington is averaging more points on the road (20.9) than at home (16.3) this season.

Divisional Battles

Including last Thursday’s matchup between Arizona and St. Louis, Week 15 has 11 divisional contests, with 10 of them being played on Sunday. My quick handicap provided below.

Oakland at Kansas City: The last four meetings between the pair at Arrowhead Stadium have watched the ‘under’ go 3-0-1. Including last week, the Raiders have scored 20-plus points four times. The following game, they’ve put up 13, 17 and 0 points. With KC’s offense struggling recently has me expecting a low-scoring affair.

Houston at Indianapolis: Since QB Andrew Luck joined the Colts, they’ve scored 27, 25 and 33 points in three meetings against Houston. The Texans defense has been better of late albeit against teams with struggling attacks (Browns, Bengals, Titans, Jaguar). Surprisingly, Colts have been better statistically on the road.

Cincinnati at Cleveland: Hard to handicap this side and total because you really don’t know what to expect from Browns QB Johnny Manziel, who will likely make big plays, both good and bad. The home-away total tendencies for both Cleveland (5-2 Under) and Cincinnati (5-1 Under) make it tough to argue the ‘over’ here.

Miami at New England: A lot has changed since the Dolphins beat up the Patriots 33-20 in Week 1. New England’s offensive line has improved and so has its defense. The Patriots were on a great ‘over’ run (7-0) but the ‘under’ has cashed in their last three games. Miami has been a solid ‘under’ look (5-2) on the road and prior to their outcome in Week 1, the last four meetings between the pair went ‘under’ the number.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Panthers beat the Buccaneers 20-14 in Week 1 without QB Cam Newton at quarterback. Fast forward to this Sunday and Carolina won’t have him again due to his car accident earlier this week. The total has been knocked down from 43 to 41 at most books and that appears to be the right move.

Washington at N.Y. Giants: New York scored a season-high 45 points against Washington 45-14 in a Week 4 matchup played on Thursday. The ‘over’ (45) snapped a six-game streak of ‘under’ winners in this series. Meaningless games should be avoided but based on the above (Shutout Factor), I expect the dysfunctional Redskins to get on the board Sunday.

Minnesota at Detroit: This total opened 44 and as of Friday morning, the number dropped to 41 ½ at CRIS. Honestly, I don’t know why but somebody hit it pretty good at the offshore book. Earlier in the season, Detroit beat Minnesota 17-3 on the road. The Lions watched the ‘under’ go 9-2 in their first 11 games but the ‘over’ has cashed in two straight with Detroit scoring 34 points in both contests. Coincidentally, the Vikings have scored 30-plus the last two weeks (31, 30) which is why I’m questioning the line move down.

Denver at San Diego: In the last 10 meetings between this pair, bettors have seen a minimum of 47 combined points scored eight times. Despite those numbers, the ‘over/under’ has gone 5-5 and largely due to high totals. This week is no different with the number hovering between 50 and 51. Denver isn’t that explosive on the road (24.8 PPG) and San Diego’s scoring (22.5 PPG) is down this season.

San Francisco at Seattle: This is the lowest total (38) on the board in Week 15 and it should be. The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and six of the last seven meetings between the two teams. I’m not going to invest in this matchup because I can really see Pete Carroll and the ‘Hawks hammering the final nail in Harbaugh’s coffin in this nationally televised game.

Dallas at Philadelphia: (See Below)

Under the Lights

Including this past Thursday’s outcome between the Cardinals and Rams, the ‘over’ has gone 31-13 (70%) in primetime games this season. Week 15 has four games with totals listed in the fifties and that includes this week’s SNF and MNF matchups.

Dallas at Philadelphia: The ‘under’ is 3-0 in the last three games in this series and the road team has won all three too. Super high total (56) for a divisional game but certainly doable. Philadelphia beat Dallas 33-10 on Thanksgiving Day and I would expect the Cowboys to rebound. Why? Dallas is 6-0 (5-1 ATS) on the road this season and its averaging 32.2 PPG, which has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1. The Eagles were held to a season-low 14 points last week against the Seahawks and the Cowboys aren’t in the same class as them.

New Orleans at Chicago: This total is ranging between 53 and 54 points and I believe you go ‘over’ in this game or pass all together. In their last three games, the Saints (35.7 PPG) and Bears (29.3 PPG) have both been torched defensively. Along with those numbers, both teams have offensive units that like to sling the rock. Barring serious weather conditions, which is very possible, I would be surprised to see the winner score less than 30 points.

Fearless Predictions

The inept play from San Francisco and a couple of missed two-point conversions by the Colts offense kept the bankroll in negative ($20) last week, but we’re still head ahead ($150) on the season. Hopefully the last three weeks brings more cheer than jeer. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Minnesota-Detroit 41 ½

Best Under: Oakland-Kansas City 41 ½

Best Team Total: Dallas Over 26

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 64 ½ Pittsburgh-Atlanta
Over 34 ½ Cleveland-Cincinnati
Under 56 ½ Miami-New England

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 15
By Matty Simo

LAS VEGAS – The highly-anticipated first career start for Cleveland Browns rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel in a key Week 15 AFC North matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals has certainly gotten the attention of bettors. The Browns-Bengals game opened with Cincinnati as a 1.5-point road favorite but has since swung the other way with Cleveland now -1 at The Wynn sportsbook in Las Vegas.

The Browns won the first meeting with the Bengals on the road 24-3 in Week 10 as 6.5-point underdogs, and both teams are still battling for the division title. Manziel, the former Heisman Trophy winner from Texas A&M, is getting the nod Sunday largely because former starter Brian Hoyer has been ineffective. Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said NFL bettors have already started jumping on the Manziel money train at his property before it’s even gotten out of the gate.

“They are, and I don’t know why they are,” Avello said. “Cincinnati’s had their issues this year, there’s no question about that. But before the game against Pittsburgh last week, they were playing fairly well, winning three games in a row. Offense seemed to spark up a little, defense was fairly solid.

“Now Johnny Manziel steps in, and Cincinnati did lose to this team badly the first time they played them. So there’s no lack of motivation here, that’s for sure, to stay in the hunt. Personally, I think the Browns are out, and the Browns think they’re out, that’s why they’re using Manziel. This is the end of (Hoyer's) contract, they’re probably not going to re-sign him. This is a chance to see what Manziel can do.”

Avello also said the limited action Manziel has seen on the field so far in relief of Hoyer was not enough to warrant opening Cleveland as a home favorite here in this spot. However, bettors have disagreed with him so far. “I haven’t seen enough of him in the NFL at this point and this early in his career, to make him a favorite over a team like this,” Avello said. “The players see it, I don’t.”

Other than that, there are also a few other important divisional games in Week 15, including the New England Patriots (-7.5) hosting the Miami Dolphins in the AFC East, the Denver Broncos (-4) visiting the San Diego Chargers in the AFC West and the Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) facing the Houston Texans in the AFC South. The Patriots, Broncos and Colts can all clinch their respective divisions with wins on Sunday.

“Indianapolis-Houston is an okay game because Houston is still fighting in the division,” Avello said. “Denver-San Diego is a decent game, Miami-New England is a decent game. But there’s a lot of junk on the schedule. The slate itself is not that great when you look at it. Oakland-Kansas City, Jacksonville-Baltimore, Tampa Bay-Carolina, Jets-Tennessee, some bad games this week.”

One of those bad games Avello mentioned has the Tennessee Titans playing the New York Jets at home. The Jets have dropped 11 of their past 12 games yet have still been bet up from a 1-point road favorite to -2.5 (-120) at The Wynn in early wagering this week. The Titans have also lost 11 of 12 and will be starting Jake Locker at QB again due to a shoulder injury to rookie Zach Mettenberger.

Two more divisional matchups in the NFC figure to peak bettors’ interest, with the San Francisco 49ers visiting the Seattle Seahawks (-10) in the NFC West and the Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) hosting the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East on Sunday Night Football. Both games are the second of two meetings, with the first won by the road teams, and each taking place just two weeks ago on Thanksgiving.

“Dallas-Philly is a good game,” Avello said. “San Francisco, they might be dead, I don’t know. Maybe it’s over for them, we’re going to find out this week.”


Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 15 Betting Moves

Rotation Team Open Current Move

305 RAIDERS - - -
306 CHIEFS 9.5 10 0.5
307 JAGUARS - - -
308 RAVENS 12.5 13.5 1
309 STEELERS 0 2 2
310 FALCONS - - -
311 TEXANS - - -
312 COLTS 7 6.5 -0.5
313 BENGALS - - -
314 BROWNS 0 1 1
315 DOLPHINS - - -
316 PATRIOTS 7.5 7.5 0
317 BUCCANEERS - - -
318 PANTHERS 5.5 3.5 -2
319 REDSKINS - - -
320 GIANTS 6.5 6.5 0
321 PACKERS 6 4.5 -1.5
322 BILLS - - -
323 VIKINGS - - -
324 LIONS 7 7 0
325 JETS - 3 -
326 TITANS 2 - -5
327 BRONCOS 3.5 4 0.5
328 CHARGERS - - -
329 49ERS - - -
330 SEAHAWKS 7.5 10 2.5
331 COWBOYS - - -
332 EAGLES 3.5 3.5 0
333 SAINTS 3 3 0
334 BEARS - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Moves - Week 15
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 15!

(Rotation #310) Atlanta +2 – The Steelers have one of those teams which you can read in our opinion. They play to the level of their competition all the time. Just as a home game against the New Orleans Saints a few weeks ago felt like a loss waiting to happen, this is the same sort of game. Atlanta and New Orleans are largely the same team, though the Falcons are probably a bit more dangerous as long as WR Julio Jones is healthy. We hate the fact that RB Le'Veon Bell has touched the ball over 80 times in his last three games, and he seems destined to have an off game. If this is the duel where he isn't on his game, it's going to be really tough to win at the Georgia Dome, where the Falcons are a little bit of bad luck this year away from being a dominating team.

Opening Line: Atlanta +2.5
Current Line: Atlanta +2
Public Betting Percentage: 57% on Pittsburgh

(Rotation #322) Buffalo +4.5 – For the second straight week, the Bills are going to be sharp, and for the second straight week, they very well could figure out how to stay inside of the number against a superior team. Remember that what we have seen out of Green Bay of late has mostly been thanks to strong performances at Lambeau Field. It's much different going on the road in December against desperate teams which need to win to keep their seasons alive. Yes, the matchup of QB Aaron Rodgers vs. QB Kyle Orton is a scary proposition, but remember that the Buffalo defensive line is one of the best in the league. Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when he is on the run, but he could be under too much pressure in one of the loudest stadiums in the league on Sunday, too.

Opening Line: Buffalo +5
Current Line: Buffalo +4.5
Public Betting Percentage: 74% on Green Bay

(Rotation #319) Washington +6.5 – Ugh. No one wants to bet on the Redskins right now. They're literally what would happen when a train wreck runs into a dumpster fire, and they probably aren't going to win another game this year. We all saw the Giants beat up on the Tennessee Titans last week, and all of a sudden, we have renewed confidence that the G-Men are going to come out and roll over a bad Washington squad. Then again, we have confidence that New York was going to roll over the Jacksonville Jaguars, too…

Opening Line: Washington +6.5
Current Line: Washington +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on New York

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SNF - Cowboys at Eagles

DALLAS COWBOYS (9-4) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (9-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Philadelphia -3, Total: 55

Division rivals battle for first place in the NFC East when the Cowboys visit the Eagles on Sunday night.

Dallas dominated the Bears 41-28 in Chicago last Thursday behind DeMarco Murray’s 179 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Philadelphia, meanwhile, lost 24-14 as 1-point home underdog against the Seahawks. These division foes are meeting for the second time in three weeks after the Eagles embarrassed the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, winning 33-10 as three-point road underdogs. However, Dallas has been extremely successful on the road in this head-to-head series, winning four of the past five meetings in Philly SU and both winning and covering in its past two trips to Lincoln Financial Field.

The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in road games after gaining 6+ yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons. However, the Eagles are 34-19 ATS after being outgained by opponents by 100 or more total yards in their last game since 1992. QB Mark Sanchez will need to rebound in this one after throwing for just 96 yards last week. The injury lists aren't too bad for this game, but Dallas has DE Demarcus Lawrence (chest), LB Dekoda Watson (hamstring) and S Jeff Heath (thumb) all questionable for Sunday night, while Philly's only new injury is TE Trey Burton, who is questionable with an injured hamstring.

The Cowboys are coming off of a solid victory in Chicago, winning the game behind the excellent running of RB DeMarco Murray (1,606 rush yards, 9 TD). In the loss to the Eagles in Dallas two weeks ago, Murray rushed for 73 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. The Cowboys will look to ride Murray more in this game, and he should be able to find some bigger holes against the league’s 18th-ranked rushing defense. QB Tony Romo (2,923 pass yards, 25 TD, 8 INT) threw for 205 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in the win over the Bears last week. He will need to remain cautious with the ball and make high percentage throws in this game, as the Eagles picked him off twice in their last meeting.

Looking WR Dez Bryant’s (73 rec, 1,034 yards, 10 TD) way more often could be a good start for Romo, as he targeted his top receiver just seven times in the Week 13 meeting. Bryant is as tough of a cover as any receiver in the league and Romo will need to utilize him if Dallas is going to win this game. Defensively, the Cowboys are allowing 30.5 PPG over their past two weeks. They will need to clean things up against this potent Philadelphia offense.

The Eagles hosted the Seahawks last week and just couldn’t get anything going offensively against Seattle’s elite defense. QB Mark Sanchez (1,500 pass yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) struggled in the game, but he did throw for 217 yards with a touchdown and no picks against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. He also rushed for a touchdown. Sanchez and the Eagles had plenty of success getting the ball out quickly, and they’ll need to continue to do so against a Dallas defense that is really struggling. RB LeSean McCoy (1,068 yards, 4 TD) had a huge game when these teams met on Thanksgiving, taking 25 handoffs and rushing for 159 yards with a touchdown. The Eagles are going to feed McCoy often in this game, and he should be able to really put up some huge numbers against this Dallas defense that is seemingly getting worse each week.

WRs Jeremy Maclin (74 rec, 1,109 yards, 10 TD) and Jordan Matthews (56 rec, 709 yards, 7 TD) should be able to find plenty of space to operate with against a Dallas defense that is allowing 251.9 passing yards per game (25th in NFL). The Eagles defense is a nightmare to play against this season, picking off opposing quarterbacks 10 times while also forcing a league-high 21 fumbles. They’ve recovered an NFL-best 14 of them, and will certainly be looking to put pressure on Tony Romo in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SNF - Cowboys at Eagles

DALLAS COWBOYS (9-4) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (9-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Philadelphia -3, Total: 55

Division rivals battle for first place in the NFC East when the Cowboys visit the Eagles on Sunday night.

Dallas dominated the Bears 41-28 in Chicago last Thursday behind DeMarco Murray’s 179 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Philadelphia, meanwhile, lost 24-14 as 1-point home underdog against the Seahawks. These division foes are meeting for the second time in three weeks after the Eagles embarrassed the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, winning 33-10 as three-point road underdogs. However, Dallas has been extremely successful on the road in this head-to-head series, winning four of the past five meetings in Philly SU and both winning and covering in its past two trips to Lincoln Financial Field.

The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in road games after gaining 6+ yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons. However, the Eagles are 34-19 ATS after being outgained by opponents by 100 or more total yards in their last game since 1992. QB Mark Sanchez will need to rebound in this one after throwing for just 96 yards last week. The injury lists aren't too bad for this game, but Dallas has DE Demarcus Lawrence (chest), LB Dekoda Watson (hamstring) and S Jeff Heath (thumb) all questionable for Sunday night, while Philly's only new injury is TE Trey Burton, who is questionable with an injured hamstring.

The Cowboys are coming off of a solid victory in Chicago, winning the game behind the excellent running of RB DeMarco Murray (1,606 rush yards, 9 TD). In the loss to the Eagles in Dallas two weeks ago, Murray rushed for 73 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. The Cowboys will look to ride Murray more in this game, and he should be able to find some bigger holes against the league’s 18th-ranked rushing defense. QB Tony Romo (2,923 pass yards, 25 TD, 8 INT) threw for 205 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in the win over the Bears last week. He will need to remain cautious with the ball and make high percentage throws in this game, as the Eagles picked him off twice in their last meeting.

Looking WR Dez Bryant’s (73 rec, 1,034 yards, 10 TD) way more often could be a good start for Romo, as he targeted his top receiver just seven times in the Week 13 meeting. Bryant is as tough of a cover as any receiver in the league and Romo will need to utilize him if Dallas is going to win this game. Defensively, the Cowboys are allowing 30.5 PPG over their past two weeks. They will need to clean things up against this potent Philadelphia offense.

The Eagles hosted the Seahawks last week and just couldn’t get anything going offensively against Seattle’s elite defense. QB Mark Sanchez (1,500 pass yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) struggled in the game, but he did throw for 217 yards with a touchdown and no picks against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. He also rushed for a touchdown. Sanchez and the Eagles had plenty of success getting the ball out quickly, and they’ll need to continue to do so against a Dallas defense that is really struggling. RB LeSean McCoy (1,068 yards, 4 TD) had a huge game when these teams met on Thanksgiving, taking 25 handoffs and rushing for 159 yards with a touchdown. The Eagles are going to feed McCoy often in this game, and he should be able to really put up some huge numbers against this Dallas defense that is seemingly getting worse each week.

WRs Jeremy Maclin (74 rec, 1,109 yards, 10 TD) and Jordan Matthews (56 rec, 709 yards, 7 TD) should be able to find plenty of space to operate with against a Dallas defense that is allowing 251.9 passing yards per game (25th in NFL). The Eagles defense is a nightmare to play against this season, picking off opposing quarterbacks 10 times while also forcing a league-high 21 fumbles. They’ve recovered an NFL-best 14 of them, and will certainly be looking to put pressure on Tony Romo in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 15 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Steelers (-2 ½, 55) at Falcons – 1:00 PM EST

Week 14 Recap:
-- Pittsburgh (8-5) continues to go through a roller-coaster season after lighting up Cincinnati for 25 fourth quarter points in a 42-21 victory as three-point road underdogs. Ben Roethlisberger torched the Bengals’ secondary for 350 yards and three touchdowns, while improving to 3-2 inside the AFC North and sitting one-half game out of the first place in the division heading into Sunday.
-- The Falcons (5-8) cashed as 13 ½-point away ‘dogs in a 43-37 loss at Green Bay, as no team wants to take control of the dreadful NFC South race. Julio Jones hauled in a career-high 259 yards and a touchdown in the defeat, but the standout receiver left the game with a hip injury and is questionable on Sunday.

Previous meeting: The Steelers knocked off the Falcons, 15-9 to kick off the 2010 season as Rashard Mendenhall rushed for the game-winning touchdown from 50 yards out in overtime. Pittsburgh played without Roethlisberger, who was serving a four-game suspension. These teams went to overtime in the previous matchup at the Georgia Dome in 2006, when the Falcons came out with a 41-38 victory as short ‘dogs.

What to watch for: Both these teams are riding three-game ‘over’ streaks, while Pittsburgh has gone ‘over’ the total in six of the past seven games. The Steelers own a 1-4 ATS record as a favorite in early kickoffs, while the Falcons have covered their last five home games as an underdog since last November (which includes a loss at London earlier this season).

Texans at Colts (-6 ½, 49) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 14 Recap:
-- Houston (7-6) still has an outside shot at qualifying for the AFC playoffs after winning back-to-back games the past two weeks. The Texans took care of the Jaguars, 27-13 as 6 ½-point road favorites, as Houston rushed for 169 yards and three touchdowns. Bill O’Brien’s team moved to 3-1 inside the AFC South, as the Texans can move within one game of the Colts with a victory on Sunday.
-- Indianapolis (9-4) rallied past Cleveland, 25-24, as Andrew Luck connected with T.Y. Hilton for the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute. The Colts failed to cash as three-point favorites, as their defense limited the Browns to 248 yards of offense, as Indianapolis is now 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS as a road favorite since the start of 2012.

Previous meeting: Indianapolis jumped out to a 24-0 lead after one quarter in Week 6 at Houston, as the Colts held off a late Texans’ comeback in a 33-28 win as 2 ½-point road chalk. The Colts scored just nine points in the final three quarters, as Luck threw for 370 yards and three touchdowns.

What to watch for: Houston is 0-12 lifetime at Indianapolis, while the Colts are 4-1 against the Texans since Luck arrived in 2012. The Texans have hit the ‘under’ in three of the last four games, while Houston is winless in three contests this season off a road win.

Bengals at Browns (-1, 44) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 14 Recap:
-- The AFC North race continues to stay tight down the stretch after the Bengals (8-4-1) were tripped up at home by the Steelers, 42-21. Cincinnati had won three straight road games before the loss to Pittsburgh, while allowing more points to the Steelers than in the previous three games combined (36).
-- The Browns’ (7-6) playoff hopes are dwindling by the week following their second consecutive loss, 25-23 to the Colts. Cleveland managed a cover as three-point underdogs to improve to 5-1-1 ATS when receiving points this season, but the Browns suffered back-to-back defeats for the first time in 2014.

Previous meeting: Cleveland shocked Cincinnati as 6 ½-point road underdogs in Week 10 with a 24-3 blowout at Paul Brown Stadium. The Browns intercepted Andy Dalton three times in the victory, as the road team won for just the second time in the past 10 matchups.

What to watch for: Cincinnati’s four-game ‘under’ streak came to a close in last week’s loss to Pittsburgh, as all four defeats for the Bengals this season have come by 21 points or more. Johnny Manziel will make his first NFL start on Sunday, as the Heisman Trophy winner threw for just 63 yards and ran for a touchdown in his only extended play in a loss at Buffalo two weeks ago.

Dolphins at Patriots (-7 ½, 48) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 14 Recap:
-- Miami (7-6) was dealt a serious blow to its playoff dream after squandering a 10-0 advantage in a 28-13 home loss to Baltimore. The Dolphins were limited to 63 yards on the ground, while suffering their fourth loss in the past two months to a team likely headed to the postseason (Packers, Lions, Broncos, and Ravens).
-- The Patriots (10-3) rebounded from a Week 13 loss at Green Bay by erasing a 14-3 deficit in a 23-14 triumph at San Diego. New England cashed as four-point favorites, capped off by a Tom Brady 69-yard touchdown strike to Julian Edelman, while the Pats’ defense limited the Chargers to 216 yards of offense.

Previous meeting: The Patriots jumped out to a 20-10 lead on opening day at Sun Life Stadium, but the Dolphins scored 23 unanswered points to shock New England, 33-20 as 3 ½-point underdogs. Miami ran all over the New England defense for 191 yards, while Ryan Tannehill threw a pair of touchdown passes. The Dolphins have lost six of the past seven visits to Gillette Stadium, with the lone victory coming in 2007 when Brady was out with an ACL injury.

What to watch for: New England owns a perfect 6-0 record at home, while covering four times. The Pats have won 15 straight games at Gillette Stadium, while riding a 16-game regular season home winning streak against division foes. The Dolphins have won four straight games off a loss, as Miami has hit the ‘under’ in seven of the past eight contests.

Broncos (-4 ½, 51) at Chargers – 4:05 PM EST

Week 14 Recap:
-- Denver (10-3) remains neck-and-neck with New England for the top seed in the AFC playoffs, as the Broncos won their third straight game by holding off the Bills, 24-17. The Broncos built a 24-3 lead, but Buffalo rallied for a pair of late touchdowns to deny Denver a cover as nine-point favorites. In spite of the win, Peyton Manning was held without a touchdown pass for the first time in 52 games.
-- San Diego’s (8-5) three-game winning streak was snapped in a 23-14 home setback to New England. The Chargers failed to score a point in the second half, as San Diego fell to 1-7 ATS in the past eight weeks after not covering as four-point home underdogs.

Previous meeting: The Broncos chased out the Chargers, 35-21 in Week 8 as 9 ½-point home favorites. Manning tossed three touchdowns (all to Emmanuel Sanders) to pass Brett Favre on the all-time touchdown list, while the Broncos improved to 5-1 against San Diego since the start of 2012 season.

What to watch for: Denver is just 2-2 ATS this season as a road favorite, but has picked up a pair of blowouts on the highway inside divisional play at Kansas City and Oakland. Since 2010, the Chargers are dynamic off a December loss, going 6-0 in this situation, while posting a 16-7 record in December in this span.

49ers at Seahawks (-9 ½, 38) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 14 Recap:
-- The 49ers (7-6) are falling apart at the seams after suffering consecutive losses. San Francisco’s offense has disappeared by scoring 16 points during this mini-skid, while hitting rock-bottom in a 24-13 loss to Bay Area rival Oakland as eight-point favorites. Colin Kapernick was intercepted twice, bringing his pick total to five in the past three weeks. -- The Seahawks (9-4) traveled to the East Coast for the third time this season and picked up its third victory by dismantling the Eagles, 24-14 as one-point favorites. Seattle’s defense allowed just 82 yards passing, while running all over the Eagles for 188 yards to pick up its sixth win in the past seven games.

Previous meeting: These two rivals just hooked up on Thanksgiving in Santa Clara, as Seattle humbled San Francisco, 19-3 as one-point road underdogs. The Seahawks intercepted Kaepernick two times, while the Niners racked up just 164 yards of offense to suffer their fourth loss in the past five matchups with Seattle.

What to watch for: With San Francisco’s recent offensive struggles, the Niners have seen the ‘under’ cash in four straight games. Seattle is in the midst of a three-game ‘under’ stretch, while allowing just 20 points during this span. Since losing to the 49ers at the end of the 2011 season, the Seahawks have won 22 of the past 24 games at CenturyLink Field, while posting a 5-7 ATS record as a home favorite of eight points or more in this span.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Prop Shop: Week 15's best player prop picks
By SEAN MURPHY

Why limit yourself to sides and totals in Week 15 of the NFL season? Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop and gives his favorite player prop picks for all of the action on the gridiron.

Most Passing Yards

Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) vs. Johnny Manziel (Cleveland Browns)

We'll go against the Johnny Football hype machine this week and back Andy Dalton at a very reasonable price.

Considering how long it took for the Browns to hand over the reins to Manziel, I doubt we'll see them throw him to the wolves here. Chances are Manziel does more with his legs than he does with his arm in this matchup. Off a bad performance against Pittsburgh, I expect to see the Bengals defense show up.

As for Dalton, while I'm not his biggest fan, he does have one of the league's best receivers at his disposal in A.J. Green. I'm not counting on a big game, but big enough to outgun Manziel.

Take: Dalton

Derek Carr (Oakland Raiders) vs. Alex Smith (Kansas City Chiefs)

The Chiefs as a team have shown plenty of regression in recent weeks, and while they draw a favorable matchup against the Raiders on Sunday, I'm not convinced Alex Smith and the offense will take full advantage.

I've said it from the start of the season, and I'll say it again here; Derek Carr has a ton of potential, and this Raiders offense is by no means broken with the rookie at the helm.

Carr should be confident coming off a win over the 49ers last week. While the Chiefs defense will offer a stiff challenge, this isn't close to the same unit it was at the start of the season.

Take: Carr.

Most Rushing Yards

Lamar Miller (Miami Dolphins) vs. LeGarrette Blount (New England Patriots)

We've picked on Lamar Miller at times this season, making some nice gains fading him in these player prop matchups. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and support Miller, however.

The Dolphins offense exploded in the second half against the Patriots in their first meeting this season. Here's thinking they'll have little interest in another high-scoring affair though.

I'm confident we'll see Miami give Miller one of his heaviest workloads of the season. Meanwhile, it's never clear what Bill Bellichick is thinking on a week-to-week basis, but I believe we'll see more of a pass-oriented gameplan against the Fins.

Take: Miller

Most pass receptions

Antonio Brown vs. Julio Jones

Two of the best young receivers in the game are involved in this matchup, but I'll give the edge to Julio Jones as he's simply taken his game to another level in the last couple of weeks.

Needless to say, Falcons QB Matt Ryan and Jones have gotten back on the same page. It helps that Jones is operating at full speed as opposed to when he was hampered by nagging injuries. The Steelers simply won't have an answer for him on Sunday afternoon.

Antonio Brown will draw plenty of attention from the much-maligned Falcons secondary. He'll break loose for a few big plays, but it could be a case of quality over quantity. Regardless the way this one plays out on the scoreboard, the Falcons will keep feeding the beast.

Take: Jones

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 15
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 15:

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7, 49)

Texans’ takeaway vs. Colts’ careless turnovers

It’s hard to imagine the Colts could be putting up more points than they already are, if not for turnover issues plaguing the offense. Indianapolis is tied for the third most giveaway in the NFL, turning the ball over 26 times heading into Week 16.

The Colts were lucky those turnover issues didn’t cost them a win in Cleveland last Sunday, with Andrew Luck throwing two interceptions and the Colts putting the ball on the ground four times – losing two of those fumbles. Not the kind of careless play you want heading into a showdown with division rival Houston.

The Texans defense thrives on forcing turnovers. And, in a season in which the club has allowed 373 yards per game (25th in the NFL), those turnovers are keeping the stop unit afloat. The Texans are tops in the league with 29 takeaways: 16 interceptions, 13 fumbles.

Indianapolis has a banged up offensive line that MVP candidate J.J. Watt is chomping at the bit to expose. He had two sacks and a fumble recovery for a touchdown when these teams met in October. Getting pressure on Luck is the catalyst for more turnovers from the Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-14, 45.5)

Jaguars’ sloppy seconds vs. Ravens’ hot second halves

The Jaguars have shown their claws in recent weeks, but only for a couple quarters. Jacksonville would make one hell of a first-half wager in that span, leading Houston at the break last week and trailing Indianapolis 6-3 at half three weeks ago. Then everything went to crap.

The Jags are giving up 13.8 points per second half this season, including 7.7 points in fourth quarters. Jacksonville was outscored 17-0 in the second half versus both the Texans and Colts in the last three games. They’ve countered with only 8.4 average second-half points - 5.7 when playing on the road.

Baltimore is blistering opponents in the final two frames, sitting second in the NFL behind the Colts with an average of 15.2 second-half points. The Ravens had a slow start to last week’s game against Miami, trailing 10-7 at half, then erupted for a 21-3 second half show. Baltimore is finishing strong, which is tough to do at this point in the season, scoring 11.3 points per fourth quarter in its last three contests.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 41.5)

Raiders’ third-down defense vs. Chiefs’ third-down offense

The Chiefs issues at wide receiver aren’t just contained to a lack of scoring punch downfield – having failed to score a single receiving touchdown on the season. Kansas City hasn’t been able to move the chains on third downs either – a passing down on most snaps – converting just 24 percent of its third-down tries over the last three games.

The Chiefs are 9 for 37 on third down during their current three-game slide, starting with a 24-20 loss to Oakland as 7.5-point road favorites in Week 12. They were 2 for 14 on third down in that game. Things get especially tricky on third and long, with QB Alex Smith averaging just under eight yards per attempt when needing nine or more to move the chains.

The Raiders are playing with a ton of momentum, picking up two wins in their last three games after starting the season 0-10. Oakland has held opponents to an 18.18 percent success rate on third downs during this turnaround, including limiting San Francisco to 3 for 11 on third down last Sunday. Even in the 52-0 ass-waxing to St. Louis, the Silver and Black left the Rams to go 1 for 8 on third downs.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 55)

Cowboys’ 10-day break vs. Eagles’ Seattle-softened lineup

In football, there is an underlying phenomena that takes place when a team is coming off a game with a very physical opponent. College football programs used to slump the week after playing pro-ready Alabama, as did NFL teams following a hard-hitting clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The reasoning behind this theory was that the team was still feeling the effects of all those hits the next week, leaving the tenderized lineup to suffer a massive letdown. For those that poo-poo this school of thought, I present you the 2014 Seattle Seahawks and their past opponents.

Teams coming off a game against the hard-hitting defending Super Bowl champs are just 3-8 SU and 2-7-1 ATS (excluding Denver, which had a bye after its Week 3 loss to Seattle). And, ever since the Seahawks and their L.O.B. got their swagger back, their last seven opponents are 0-7 SU and ATS in the following game. The Philadelphia Eagles are up next.

Philadelphia is coming off a 24-14 beating at the hands of Seattle and opens the doors of Lincoln Financial Field to a well-rested Cowboys side, desperate to stay in the postseason hunt. The last time these teams met, Dallas was on a short week following a physical affair with the Giants and got run of its own field. This time around, the Cowboys have had 10 days off to prepare and take a perfect 6-0 SU road record (5-1 ATS) into Philly.

An interesting note: Dallas was one of only two teams to follow a game against the Seahawks with a win and cover this season, beating the Giants 31-21 as a 4.5-point home favorite in Week 7.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest Week 15 NFL line moves
By STEPHEN CAMPBELL

It's Week 15 in the NFL which means we're entering the home stretch of the schedule. Some teams have all but locked up a postseason birth, others have thrown in the towel completely and some squads find themselves clinging for dear life to their slim playoff hopes with Sunday presenting itself as a do-or-die day.

We talk with John Lester about the action on some of Sunday's matchups and where those odds could end up come kickoff:

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions - Open: -7.5, Move: -8

The perennially competitive NFC North has seen the Chicago Bears grabbing the headlines for all the wrong reasons this year, while the Lions are one game behind the Packers at the top of the division heading into Sunday. Even without star running back Adrian Peterson for the majority of the campaign, the Vikings have been solid at the betting window (8-5 ATS) while showing signs of promise for the future with rookie Teddy Bridgewater under center.

"The spread reached as high as -8 and that’s when the wiseguys grabbed Minnesota," said Lester. "The under has seen even more significant movement, almost down a field goal from our open of 44. You know what you’re going to get with a much-improved Detroit D, and the first time these two met they didn't eclipse 20 points."

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -9.5, Move: -10, Move: -9.5

After enduring a mid-season slump, the Seahawks have looked more like last year's Super Bowl champs as the season draws to a close, winning and covering three games in a row ahead of the contest. Rumors of the potential departure of head coach John Harbaugh has dominated the 49ers season, as the Niners have looked completely out of sorts on the field on their way to a 7-6 straight-up record. San Fran's struggles have continued against the spread, failing to cover in three consecutive games ahead of Sunday.

"The betting public is well aware of San Francisco’s internal and external problems," stated Lester. "They never really backed off the Seahawks, even when they were struggling earlier in the year. We’ve bounced around between -9.5 and -10 for a few days and it will probably reach double digits again."

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns - Open: +1, Move: -1.5

In case you didn't hear, it's Johnny Football time in Cleveland. Despite Brian Hoyer's struggles on the field this season, the Browns are the league's fourth-best bet (7-4-2 ATS) after 14 weeks. Cincinnati is hanging onto the top spot in the crowded AFC North which makes Sunday's all-Ohio clash a massive one for both sides.

"This one was already moving before the announcement of Manziel starting, but that’s when the squares really jumped on Cleveland," said Lester. "The sharps may have initially been taking a small position because we’ve seen some buyback when it got to -1.5. It’s kind of a muddied picture right now. I think the Bengals get the win."

Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills - Open: +5, Move: +4

The Packers have looked like a well oiled machine all year long and find themselves as the odds-on favorites to hoist the Lombardi trophy in February. The scrappy Bills have refused to throw in the towel and remain in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race, covering the spread in each of their past three matchups. Green Bay has been unbeatable on the frozen tundra (7-0 straight-up) but is just 3-3 SU away from Wisconsin.

"You know the public is on Green Bay (nearly 80 percent of our action), so this movement is all smart money," Lester said. "They know this is a must-win game for Buffalo, and they expect the Packers to slow down at some point. That said, I doubt this creeps any lower than +4."

Washington Redskins at New York Giants - Open: -6.5, Move: -7, Move: -6.5

Both the Redskins and the Giants enter Week 15 with a significantly larger amount of questions than answers. Each squad has long been out of playoff contention, and unsurprisingly, have been far from a safe bet. The G-Men are tied with Tampa Bay and New Orleans for the third worst ATS mark in the league (5-8 ATS) while the 'Skins are sole owners of the second worst spread play at 4-9.

"We’re back to our opener of -6.5 after brief moves of a half point in either direction," said Lester. "I don’t think the McCoy-RG3 situation has really had any bearing on this line. I could see this getting back to a touchdown by kickoff."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: 49ers at Seahawks

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-10, 38)

The Seattle Seahawks are showing the form that carried them to a Super Bowl title last season and that spells bad news for the San Francisco 49ers, who are teetering on the edge of playoff elimination. The Seahawks go for their fourth straight victory when they host the 49ers on Sunday in the second meeting between the NFC West rivals in 18 days. Seattle has permitted 20 points over its past three, including a 19-3 win at San Francisco.

The 49ers had won three in a row before they were limited to 164 yards by the Seahawks on Thanksgiving night and followed that up by laying an egg in last week's 24-13 loss at lowly Oakland, dropping two games behind Seattle and two other clubs for the final two playoff slots in the NFC. A loss could KO the playoff hopes of San Francisco, which is expected to part ways with coach Jim Harbaugh after the season. “Sometimes they don’t see the magic that guys have," Seattle coach Pete Carroll said of the reported rift between Harbaugh and team management. "I think he’s fantastic football coach. He’s proven that. There’s no question about that."

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: After opening at Seattle -9.5 at most books, the total has shifted to -10. The total opened at a low 38.5, but has still dropped to 38.

INJURY REPORT: 49ers - G Mike Iupati (Ques-Elbow), C Marcus Martin (Ques-Knee), WR Stevie Johnson (Out-Knee) Seahawks - C Max Unger (Ques-Ankle),

WEATHER FORECAST: Skies are expected to be clear with temperatures between 42°F and 47°F. Winds are expected to be blowing throughout the game between 9 mph and 11 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "These are obviously two teams heading in opposite directions as the Seahawks enter on a 3-0 SU/ATS run, while the 49ers are just 1-2 SU (0-3 ATS) in their past three games. The oddsmakers have been forced to drastically adjust the pointspread as this line is now 11 points higher than when these two teams played on Thanksgiving night just two weeks ago. Seattle was a +1 point road underdog in that November 27th game and the look-ahead line this summer had the Seahawks -3.5 for this game in Seattle. While the line is definitely inflated based on recent results, it is hard to know which San Francisco team will show up as it appears head coach John Harbaugh is on his way out." Steve Merril

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened at Seattle -9.5 and got sharp bet on Seahawks, buying 1/2 point to -9 (-120), so we moved the champs to -10.5 (even). On Friday, we made a small move to Seattle -10. Appears the Seahawks will be a small decision on this game, as 55 percent of cash on Seattle. 57 percent of bets on 49ers." - Mike Jerome.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS, 4-9 O/U): San Francisco's offense has been among the most unproductive in the league, ranking 26th with an average of 18.8 points, and has taken a major step back over the past two months. The 49ers have been held to 17 points or fewer in six of their last seven games and are averaging 12.3 over their last four. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick continues to regress, completing under 56 percent of his passes in four of the past five games while throwing five interceptions and only two touchdowns over his last three. Running back Frank Gore hasn't cracked 100 yards since Week 5, putting more of an onus on a defense that ranks third in the league.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS, 7-6 O/U): Seattle was sitting at 3-3 following back-to-back losses to Dallas and St. Louis in mid-October but has rebounded to win six of seven and turned in three consecutive dominant defensive efforts. The Seahawks limited NFC West leader Arizona and San Francisco to a field goal apiece before holding Philadelphia's potent offense to a season-low 139 yards in last week's 24-14 road victory. While the defense has been superb, quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown for four touchdowns and run for another while not throwing an interception during the winning streak. Marshawn Lynch rushed for 86 yards last week to hit 1,000 for the fourth straight season.

TRENDS:

*49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC West.
*Under is 7-1 in Seahawks last 8 vs. NFC West.
*Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Seattle.
*49ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 57.2 percent are backing the 49ers +10 with 58.4 percent taking the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cowboys league's best road team
Andrew Caley

The Dallas Cowboys are the lone undefeated team on the road this season, going an impressive 6-0 away from AT&T Stadium. All other teams in the NFL have at least two road losses this season.

In those six games the Cowboys have been a great bet on the road, going 5-1 against the spread.

They will need that success to continue if they hope to be NFC East champs when they visit the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday night. The Eagles are currently 3.5-point home favorites and are 5-2 ATS at home this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 8:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$5500 - HORSES & GELDINGS - CLAIMING $10000. - FOR N/W $50000. LIFETIME


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 KINMUNDYS STRYKER 12/1


# 9 TARTES LEGACY 8/1


# 2 BAD FOX 7/5


KINMUNDYS STRYKER looks very good to best this race may be overlooked at 12/1 on the line. May provide us a win based on nice recent speed figs - earning an avg of 79. Good for a win wager just off the outstanding prior class rankings. Have to like this fine animal. Plante is racking up the wins these days. Great win percent makes this nice horse our selection. TARTES LEGACY - Some trainers just fit better with certain harness racers. That seems to be the case today with Darveau. A very good wager. Shepherd and Darveau have a competitive working relationship. Terrific results from their outings. BAD FOX - Take a look at this nice horse's avg speed rating of 79 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a very nice wager.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 14 - Post: 5:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 95 - Purse:$20000 - NW $17,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS 4 YR. OLDS & OLDER LAST START FOR A PURSE OF GREATER THAN $35,000 INELIGIBLE AE: NW 9 EXT. PM RACES OR $90,000 LIFETIME


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 ABELARD HANOVER 4/1


# 5 PERRITO CALIENTE 7/1


# 4 VALIDUS DEO 5/2


ABELARD HANOVER will have you running to the cashier's window in this event. The panel of smart guys knows that speed is the key in harness racing. This standardbred will unlock our way to a nice win. Quite possibly the class of the pack with an average rating of 97. A nice contender. Battling well, earned a huge TrackMaster speed fig in his last race (91). PERRITO CALIENTE - Battling quite well, recorded a strong speed fig in his most recent outing (92). A very nice win percent has been achieved by entrants coming from the 5 post. VALIDUS DEO - When starting from the 4 post, a much higher than average win percentage has resulted. The wagering panel noted a very promising effort out of this harness racer last time. Hoping for a repeat of that to dominate.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $4950 Class Rating: 75

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 14, 2014 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. CLASIFICADOS EN $3,500 Y DEBUTANTES ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 LION ON THE RUN 2/1


# 3 GATO PASO 5/2


# 2 JACKSTOWN 3/1


LION ON THE RUN looks solid to best this field. Trainers don't bring mounts back this quickly just for fun. Formidable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this horse a definite contender. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Garcia will probably have this gelding in excellent position to win the race. GATO PASO - Has run quite well when travelling a dirt sprint race. Will more than likely be one of the early speedsters of the group going into the halfway point of the competition. JACKSTOWN - This animal has to be in sound condition coming back to the track so soon. Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (68 average) at today's distance and surface recently.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Fair Grounds - Race #1 - Post: 1:25pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 MY FUTURE QUEST (ML=8/1)
#7 ILEEN'S STAR (ML=9/2)


MY FUTURE QUEST - Has discovered a good spot this time out. ILEEN'S STAR - Looking at today's class figure, this horse is meeting an easier field than last out at Charles Town.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BROKEN KEY (ML=8/5), #6 SNAGGEDEM (ML=4/1), #8 MY SMOOTH TALKER (ML=5/1),

BROKEN KEY - Hasn't raced or had any works since Nov 21st. Not much value on this chalk horse. SNAGGEDEM - This horse garnered a speed rating in his last affair which likely isn't good enough today. MY SMOOTH TALKER - Didn't look so hot last time. Probably won't do much running in today's race. When examining today's class rating, he will have to notch a better speed fig than last time around the track to compete in this dirt route.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #1 MY FUTURE QUEST to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Stakes - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $50000 Class Rating: 86

USEEIT S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA FOALS. NO NOMINATION FEE. $250 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX. STARTERS TO PAY AN ADDITIONAL $250 WITH $30,000 GUARANTEED BY REMINGTON PARK AND AN ADDITIONAL $20,000 INCLUDED FROM THE OKLAHOMA BRED FUND. ALL MONIES TO BE DIVIDED 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 11% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH AND 3% TO FIFTH. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 HEYKITTYKITTYKITTY 5/1


# 7 LIVELY VISION 12/1


# 4 DEVIOUS RUMOR 8/1


HEYKITTYKITTYKITTY has a very strong shot to take this race. Has been racing quite well and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the best class figures of this group of horses in this race. Should best this group of horses here, showing quite good figs of late. LIVELY VISION - Looks strong for the conditions of this race today, showing solid numbers in dirt route races lately. Keep this filly in your exotics as Birzer has given backers some double digit returns. DEVIOUS RUMOR - Looks competitive to be close to the front end at the first call. She has strong class ratings, averaging 81, and has to be given consideration in this competition.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #7 - Post: 3:07pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 SCATTERED (ML=8/1)
#2 JIRAVIT (ML=9/2)
#6 MINI COSMO (ML=3/1)


SCATTERED - The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. The addition of Lasix might make this horse wake up and run very well in this field. JIRAVIT - Carrasco was aboard this colt last time around the track and was impressed enough to take the equine right back. This colt is in nice form. Ran first on November 19th. MINI COSMO - I like to wager on this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a good outing within the last month. Generally speaking, horses on Lasix for the first time should be considered. That's what we have here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 PANCAKESANDBATTER (ML=5/2), #7 NICK'S POSSE (ML=5/1), #8 LOCKPORT (ML=6/1),

PANCAKESANDBATTER - This closer looks to have almost no chance without an early battle on the top end. NICK'S POSSE - Mediocre speed fig last out at Parx Racing at 1 mile. Don't feel this vulnerable equine will improve too much today. LOCKPORT - Last raced on November 22nd at Parx Racing, finishing third. Not likely to perk up off of that try today.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 SCATTERED to win if we can get at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5,6] Total Cost: $6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 1:18 PM EASTERN POST


The East View Stakes

8.3 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#3 MY SUPER NOVA
#4 FREUDIE ANNE
#6 BUILDING PERMIT
#2 HOT CITY GIRL

For your information folks ... East View was the name of the Westchester estate of James Butler, the founder of Empire City Racetrack, which was located on the current site of Yonkers Raceway. Here in the 77th renewal of this stakes test for New York Breds ...#3 MY SUPER NOVA takes the least significant step-up in class (+2) to enter this stakes field, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of her four career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her 2nd race back. #4 FREUDIE ANNE is both the overall speed and pace profile leader in this field, and has posted a pair of "Circle Trips" in her three career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last "adventure."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Sunday 12/14 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (53 - 105 / $205.20): DONNIE DARKO (2nd)

Spot Play: DUNESIDE PERTTIE (6th)


Race 1

(3) DIXIE'S BOY looks to have a ton of ability and has gotten better with each outing. (5) FIRST FROST gelding was not the same last out but is capable of bouncing back. (4) APACHE LONGBOW lightly raced pacer will offer a big price and will look to shake loose late.

Race 2

(3) DONNIE DARKO well bred colt was super impressive in the qualifier and just needs to stay trotting to get his picture taken. (7) VALLEY PHOTO mare would have won her last two starts had she not snapped it off in the stretch. (1) MEABH finished far behind the top choice in the qualifier but does have some upside.

Race 3

In a wide open and evenly matched race (6) GET THE TERROR owns good closing ability but needs a honest fractions up front to close into. (4) FOX VALLEY ABSOLUT mare has just not came back to herself this year, however she is way down in class. (1) GETOUTHTEWAYANMOVE filly has made big moves in her last two but hung in both; command a price.

Race 4

(9) MIRIAMS'S JET filly was a game winner last week and has been much better in her last two starts. (8) TREAT FOR MY SWEET filly owns a win at this level and is versatile. (1) IF I DIDN'T DREAM needs a good setup and could threaten with some racing luck.

Race 5

(5) ANTS INER PANTS mare would crush these when right. She makes her second start off a layoff and should show improvement down in class. (6) LOCK AND GO just missed last out to a horse that would have been one of the favorites in this race. (2) SPEEDY ALBER has been trotting consistent miles but needs more; use underneath.

Race 6

(4) DUNESIDE PERTTIE filly raced her best in a long time last out and finds a suspect bunch. (1a) EVA BELLA has the most upside in the race and looks to be a real nice filly. (7) PARKLANE SPARKLE was much better last out and is just now back in racing shape off a layoff.

Race 7

(3) KIMBERLY R mare is one of few threats in this group and should offer the better price. (5) WINDOW WIPER has been racing gamely and beat the same bunch first up last out. (1) LCB SANDY mare owns a decent burst of speed and gets the best post.

Race 8

(5) CLEVER UPSTART was parked the mile last out and never gave up digging all the way to the wire. The veteran trotter could offer a much better price and is down in class. (6) ENCHANTRESS LADY has not won a race for a long time and seems to lack pop late; command a price. (8) MAYFAIR SOPHIE won at this level last out but will need more.

Race 9

In a weak and inconsistent field (1) SECONDS LATER is usually better played underneath but finds a field full of question marks. (2) LIFE ON THE ROW gets sent out for a hot barn and usually offer a big price. (3) NA ZDROWIE looked to be improved for new connections; threat.

Race 10

(7) FOX VALLEY ANDY was awesome last out closing from an impossible spot off a layoff. (2) MEADOWBROOK SAMSON showed much more promise earlier in the season and comes off a confidence boosting win. (1) BEN N AL gets a much better starting post and has been racing deceptively well.