Jack Jones
Washington Redskins vs. NY Giants
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Washington Redskins +7
This is one of my favorite situations in the NFL. I like to back teams that are coming off blowout losses against teams that are coming off blowout wins. The public perception coming into these games is that the team coming off a blowout win is really good, while the team coming off a blowout loss is terrible.
This makes the betting public quick to back the team coming off a blowout win. Oddsmakers know this, and thus they are forced to set the number in favor of the team off the blowout win, providing a ton of line value for sharp bettors to back the team coming off the blowout loss.
There’s no question in my mind that there is value in backing the Redskins this week, and I would argue that they are the better team despite having a worse record. That really shows up in their numbers this season as they are nowhere near as bad as their 3-10 record would indicate.
The Giants may not be as bad as their 4-9 record either, but they are being treated like an elite team here with this 7-point spread. When you factor in three points for home-field advantage, that means the Giants would be a 4-point favorite on a neutral field. The Giants are not four points better than the Redskins, period.
Washington actually ranks 11th in the NFL in yardage differential this season, outgaining teams by an average of 14.7 yards per game. It ranks ahead of playoff contenders like Dallas, Green Bay, San Francisco, San Diego, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Arizona in this department. Of the top 17 teams in yardage differential, only two of them have losing records. They are the Redskins and Saints, who are also an underrated team at this point in the season.
New York ranks just 21st in yardage differential, getting outgained by 19.8 yards per game. It is getting a lot of respect here due to its 36-7 win at Tennessee last week, but everyone is blowing out the Titans these days. The Giants had lost six in a row prior to that win, including a 24-25 loss at Jacksonville the week prior. They aren’t all of a sudden an elite team, and they still don’t have anything to play for at 4-9. They could easily suffer a letdown this week after finally putting an end to their six-game skid.
Washington wants revenge for its 14-45 home loss to the Giants on September 25th. The Redskins have played the Giants tough outside of that game, going 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS in their last seven meetings. They have only lost twice by more than seven points in their last eight meetings with the Giants. These division rivalry games are always played closer to the vest, and the Redskins will have no problem getting up off the mat and trying to get a win this week.
Plays on road teams (WASHINGTON) – after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 37-12 (75.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Washington is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games in the second half of the season against terrible defensive teams that allow 6.0 or more yards per play. The Giants ranks 22nd in scoring defense (25.1 points/game) and 23rd in total defense (371.3 yards/game). The Redskins are 38-22 ATS in their last 60 road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. Bet the Redskins Sunday.