THE GOLD SHEET
N.Y. JETS by 7 over New England (Thursday, Nov. 13)
TAMPA BAY by 14 over Minnesota
OVER THE TOTAL in the Denver-Atlanta game
*New York Jets 20 - NEW ENGLAND 13—Brett Favre wasn’t able to
alter the dynamics of this incestuous rivalry when teams first met in Week Two
in N.Y., but that was just his second start for Jets. With Favre more familiar with
new offense and Thomas Jones (149 YR last week vs. Rams) running up a
storm, Jets capable of extending series visitor dominance (road team has
covered last 6 reg.-season meetings). Stout N.Y. defense (just 3.1 ypc; 31
sacks) should force Matt Cassel to be more of a playmaker than Bill Belichick
would prefer. TV—NFL NETWORK
(08-Ne. 19-NYJ 10...Ne.18-12 Ny.21/104 Ne.33/104 Ne.16/23/0/156 Ny.18/26/1/152 Ne.0 Ny.0)
(07-Ne. 38-JETS 14...Ne.28-17 Ne.37/134 Ny.19/60 Ne.22/28/0/297 Ny.21/31/0/167 Ne.0 Ny.0)
(07-NE. 20-Jets 10...Ne.16-13 Ne.35/131 Ny.17/90 Ny.25/40/1/146 Ne.14/27/1/134 Ne.0 Ny.1)
(08-N. Eng. +1 19-10; 07-N. Eng. -6' 38-14, NEW ENG. -21 20-10...SR: New England 49-48-1)
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 16
OVER THE TOTAL ATLANTA 31 - Denver 30—Denver Pro Bowl CB
Champ Bailey (played at Georgia) says he expects to return from his groin
injury. That might not help the undersized defensive front of the Broncos,
missing two starting LBs and giving up 5.1 ypc in containing bruising RB
Michael Turner (890 YR) and fleet Jerious Norwood (365 YR TY; 65-yd. TDC
last week). But can Atlanta’s secondary (3 ints. last week) cope with Jay Cutler
and premium targets Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal (combined 109 recs.).
Denver “over” 10-3-1 last 14 away; Falcs’ 4-0 vs. spread at home TY.
(04-Atlanta +6' 41-28...SR: Denver 8-4)
TAMPA BAY 30 - Minnesota 16—Insiders say Jon Gruden very
pleased the way his gradually-rebuilt OL now developing. And Joey Galloway
is back in action to stretch the stretchable Viking defense, drawing attention
away from new go-to WR Antonio Bryant (45 recs.). Minny 1-3 vs. the spread
on the road TY (“over” all four), and Adrian Peterson not likely to flourish on the
grass vs. the quick & stubborn T.B. defense, refreshed after its bye week. Gus
Frerotte smart, but not fast enough here. (05-T. Bay +6 24-13...SR: Min. 31-19)
MIAMI 26 - Oakland 10—The NFL’s six western-most teams are 0-13 SU
and 3-9-1 vs. the spread this year playing in east coast states (plus
Pennsylvania). The on-going coaching and roster changes (e.g., release of CB
DeAngelo Hall), plus player demotions and injuries, make this a one-sided
game in terms of stability and leadership. Worse yet, the Raiders had fallen to 30th
vs. the run prior to last week and must cope with Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams.
Number is puffy, but Oakland’s frequent breakdowns make for low percentages.
(07-Oak. 35-MIAMI 17...O.21-13 O.49/299 M.20/141 M.14/25/2/137 O.5/12/0/70 O.1 M.0)
(07-Oakland +4 35-17...SR: Oakland 19-12-1)
NY GIANTS 23 - Baltimore 19—Ravens have the key element to needed to
make things difficult for the champs, namely, a stout run defense to keep N.Y.’s
bruising ground game in check. And Baltimore’s own McGahee-McClain-Rice
rush offense taking lots of pressure off Joe Flacco, who was sacked only three
times and intercepted just once at Pittsburgh, when he impressively drove the
Ravens for the tying 4th-Q TD before losing in OT. Baltimore TE Todd Heap is
a special weapon when healthy, and he caught two TDs last week.
(04-BALTIMORE -10 37-14...SR: Baltimore 3-0)
INDIANAPOLIS 30 - Houston 26—Sage Rosenfels still has nightmares
about TY’s first meeting, when he fumbled twice and tossed an int. in the last
eight minutes, as Houston became the first team to blow a 17-point lead in the
last 5 minutes to lose in regulation. Hot Texan WR Andre Johnson was 9 for 131
receiving in that game. With Indy only 1-3 vs. the spread so far at “The Luke,”
and with both defenses hurting (Texans 8-1 “over” TY), might look for eighth
straight “over” in series.
(08-Indy 31-HOU. 27...H.23-18 H.32/156 I.22/79 H.21/33/1/235 I.25/34/1/235 I.0 H.2)
(07-Indy 30-HOU. 24...I.18-16 I.29/92 H.17/40 I.20/29/0/270 H.27/33/2/214 I.0 H.0)
(07-INDY 38-Hou. 15...I.33-18 I.31/120 H.19/66 I.31/40/0/338 H.22/36/3/233 I.1 H.0)
(08-Indy -3' 31-27; 07-Indy -6' 30-24, INDY -7 38-15...SR: Indianapolis 12-1)
Tennessee 23 - JACKSONVILLE 16—While the Tennessee offense has its
flaws (no dynamic WRs, lack of pass-run balance in a pass-oriented league),
the Titan defense (13 ppg, best in the league) keeps shining through. One key
factor on that unit has been DT Albert Haynesworth (6 sacks), opposed this
week by the Jags’ fill-in Gs. Vince Young (2 ints.) was the Tenn. QB in the first
meeting opening weekend. Must note Jags15-6-1 dog mark last 22 (2-0 TY).
(08-TENN. 17-Jack. 10...T.14-13 T.32/137 J.17/33 T.14/24/2/172 J.23/35/2/156 T.0 J.1)
(07-Tenn. 13-JACK. 10...T.22-13 T.46/278 J.18/72 J.17/30/0/200 T.11/18/1/68 T.0 J.1)
(07-Jack. 28-TENN. 13...J.19-17 J.44/166 T.19/62 T.24/41/2/230 J.13/23/0/96 J.1 T.1)
(08-TENN. +3 17-10; 07-Tenn. +7 13-10, Jack. +4' 28-13...SR: Tennessee 16-12)
Chicago 24 - GREEN BAY 23—Kyle Orton might return at QB, but Bears can
go to war with Rex Grossman, who has reduced his mistakes since call from
bullpen two weeks ago. Even the “bad Rex” can hand off to Matt Forte, which
could spell big problems for the suddenly-soft G.B. rush defense allowing 5
ypc and has been gashed for 175 YR or more six times already TY.
Meanwhile, inconsistencies in Pack’s own infantry creating an increased
burden for Aaron Rodgers.
(07-Chi. 27-G. BAY 20...G.18-16 G.22/121 C.33/82 G.29/40/2/318 C.15/25/1/203 C.0 G.3)
(07-CHI. 35-G. Bay 7...C.14-13 C.45/139 G.21/125 G.17/32/2/149 C.8/14/0/101 C.0 G.0)
(07-Chicago +3 27-20, CHICAGO +8 35-7...SR: Chicago 90-79-6)
Philadelphia 27 - CINCINNATI 13—Eagles 4-1 their last 5 as a road favorite,
and the emergence of speed WR DeSean Jackson to go with Brian Westbrook
& Donovan McNabb gives Philly quite a formidable group of “triplets” compared
with Cincy’s Chad Ocho Cinco, Cedric Benson & Ryan Fitzpatrick (62%, but 4
TDs vs. 6 ints.; 1-4 vs. spread as starter TY). On defense, Bengals’
combination of only 14 sacks & ints. was second-worst in NFL prior to last
weekend. (04-Cincinnati -3' 38-10...SR: Cincinnati 7-3)
New Orleans 30 - KANSAS CITY 20—Reggie Bush says he expects to
return from his knee injury for this game, while Chiefs’ Larry Johnson will have
concluded his NFL suspension. Tyler Thigpen & Jamaal Charles now appear
to be the future of the K.C. offense. But the present of the Chiefs’ defense (only
6 sacks TY!) clearly not ready for the quick-firing Drew Brees (17 TDP), eager
to atone for his 3 ints. of last week.
(04-NEW ORLEANS +3' 27-20...SR: EVEN 4-4)
CAROLINA 27 - Detroit 9—Panthers’ bright rookie C Ryan Kalil and powerful
rookie RT Jeff Otah back in action after lingering ankle injuries, improving the
already-potent Carolina ground game. That’s good news for Panthers, now 6-
0-2 vs. spread last eight at home. Further good news is the arrival of the limited
Detroit offense (7 sacks last week) and the see-through Lion defense (31 ppg).
Dean Stanton or Daunte Culpepper vs. Julius Peppers is not good.
(05-Carolina P 21-20...SR: Carolina 3-1)
TAMPA BAY 30 - Minnesota 16—Insiders say Jon Gruden very
pleased the way his gradually-rebuilt OL now developing. And Joey Galloway
is back in action to stretch the stretchable Viking defense, drawing attention
away from new go-to WR Antonio Bryant (45 recs.). Minny 1-3 vs. the spread
on the road TY (“over” all four), and Adrian Peterson not likely to flourish on the
grass vs. the quick & stubborn T.B. defense, refreshed after its bye week. Gus
Frerotte smart, but not fast enough here. (05-T. Bay +6 24-13...SR: Min. 31-19)
SAN FRANCISCO 23 - St. Louis 16—Mike Singletary, in his post-game
tirade after his first game as a HC three weeks ago, inadvertently
shouted the wish of all handicappers when he yelled, “I want winners!”
Victory quite possible vs. the flailing Rams if Steven Jackson (thigh) is still
sidelined from an offense producing only 14 ppg while the defense gives up 31.
Niners 6-1 vs. spread in last 7 in series; own the better defense.
(07-S. Frn. 17-ST. LOU. 16...St.20-8 Sf.28/89 St.23/61 St.24/41/0/331 Sf.11/17/0/97 Sf.2 St.3)
(07-St. Lou. 13-S. FRN. 9...St.15-13 St.29/102 Sf.16/32 Sf.20/42/2/212 St.21/32/0/105 St.0 Sf.0)
(07-San Francisco +3 17-16, St. Louis -3 13-9...SR: St. Louis 60-55-2)
SEATTLE 21 - Arizona 20—Return of Matt Hasselbeck (check status) is set
for this game after he missed five straight with a herniated disk that has been
fazing his knee strength. However, even if it’s Seneca Wallace again, he has
at least stabilized the offense (no turnovers last week in cover at Miami),
meaning the visiting Cards will have to fully earn everything they get on this
tough field vs. the four-time defending NFC West champs. Hawks’ defense can
keep Warner on the move.
(07-ARIZ. 23-Sea. 20...A.20-18 A.26/132 S.24/92 A.23/37/1/299 S.22/36/0/278 A.0 S.1)
(07-SEA. 42-Ariz. 21...A.23-21 S.28/80 A.16/50 A.28/46/5/305 S.22/33/0/269 S.0 A.0)
(07-ARIZONA +3 23-20, SEATTLE -7 42-21...SR: EVEN 9-9)
PITTSBURGH 28 - San Diego 19—S.D. (7-2-1 as a dog) is getting points for
the first time since Chargers’ injury-hampered AFC title game last season in
Foxborough. It’s pretty clear S.D. not playing to that level these days.
Pittsburgh might be, if it could only keep its key players healthy. Willie Parker
(shoulder) expected back this week. Chargers, tops in takeaways LY, now very
vulnerable to the pass. Steeler defense hopes OLB LaMarr Woodley (9½
sacks; out with calf injury last week) ready to go. Men of Steel 44-15-1 “over”
last 60at Heinz. (06-SAN DIEGO -3' 23-13...SR: Pittsburgh 19-8)
*Dallas 26 - WASHINGTON 23—It’s not quite an elimination game for
Dallas, but Cowboys’ wobbling playoff hopes (and HC Phillips’ continued
employment) can’t afford another divisional loss and a season sweep vs.
Redskins. With Tony Romo expected back—plus healthier Felix Jones & JasonWitten to go with recently-acquired WR Roy Williams—must expect supreme
effort after much-needed bye week. Washington QB Jason Campbell (finally
threw two ints.!) proved mortal two weeks ago vs. Steelers. TV—NBC
(08-Wash. 26-DAL. 24...W.22-21 W.34/164 D.11/44 D.28/47/1/300 W.20/31/0/220 W.0 D.0)
(07-DAL. 28-Wash. 23...W.28-19 D.25/72 W.17/62 W.34/55/1/361 D.22/32/1/287 D.0 W.1)
(07-WASH. 27-Dal. 6...W.22-7 W.37/131 D.16/1 W.22/31/0/223 D.14/27/1/146 W.2 D.0)
(08-Wash. +10' 26-24; 07-DALLAS -10' 28-23, WASH. -9 27-6...SR: Dallas 56-39-2)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17
*Cleveland 24 - BUFFALO 20—Cleveland has blown big leads at home in
recent weeks, but Browns have covered their last 3 away. Brady Quinn (66%,
2 TDs) appeared quite ready to the lead attack in his first start vs. Denver.
Meanwhile, worst-case scenario materializing for fading Buffalo, with defensive
injuries mounting, running game bottled up, and 2nd-year QB Trent Edwards (2
picks last week at N.E.) unable to hit big gainers. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-CLEVE. 8-Buf. 0...C.16-11 C.37/174 B.32/108 C.9/24/0/130 B.13/33/0/124 C.0 B.0)
(07-CLEVELAND -5' 8-0...SR: Cleveland 9-5)