Service Plays Sunday 11/16/08

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[brady1983]

Larry Ness' NFL Las Vegas Insider (7-2 TY)

Larry and his "unmatched" contacts have had a superb NFL season, going 7-2 or 77.8% ATS with his exclusive NFL Insiders. This week's NFL Insider has been designated as Larry's STRONGEST Las Vegas Insider play of NFL '08. "It always pays to be on the inside with Larry" but lucky Week 11 offers "something special." Want in?


TAMPA BAY BUCS

 

[dominator8888]

Anyone have Teddy Sevransky's Big Ticket Game of the Month?

 

[melch]

MEL'S NFL PICKS

Tennessee -2.5 over Jacksonville
Jacksonville has been awful at home this season, losing all their games except for an OT win over Houston in week #4. Meanwhile Tennessee, who beat the Jags 17-10 in week #1, have covered all 4 of their road games. The recent strength of schedule disparity in this matchup is striking. Tennessee's last 3 opponents were Indianapolis, Green Bay and Chicago; while Jacksonville played Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit. The Titans will be tough unless defenses can get pressure on Kerry Collins, and at this point they have only given up a league best 5 sacks through 9 games. Jacksonville has 18 sacks, while giving up 22. Tennessee has a defense that I rate as 10 points better here, and a much stronger red zone defense as well. Betting an undefeated team against a 4-5 opponent for -2.5 points looks like good value to me.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pointwise Phone Plays

3*
Jacksonville
Pittsburgh
New Orleans
Cleveland

2*
Houston
Dallas

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Vic

Eagles (-9) over BENGALS
Tough loss last week, but it was to the defending Super Bowl champs. Now, we're talking about 1-8 Cincinnati. With a quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is very short on experience. And when the Eagles line up against a QB who is short on experience, the end result is usually very good. Note the easy 27-14 victory over Atlanta and rookie QB Matt Ryan, and the 40-26 W against San Francisco and newbie J.T. O'Sullivan. Also like the Birds' fabulous spread record on the road (covering 15 of the last 21). Also like the Bengals' spread record at home since the start of 2002 (18-35). This is the last creampuff on the schedule until the middle of December when the Browns come to town for a Monday-night visit, and the Eagles need to bring the hammer down and take full advantage.

CHIEFS (+5) over Saints

Kinda strange to find Kansas City as the best bet, but you gotta look at the way Herm Edwards is handling this 1-8 team. Peeking at the last three games, the Chiefs lost - at the Jets, 28-24; at home to Tampa Bay, 30-27; and at San Diego, 20-19. The good news is, they covered all three. And giving his troops a needed boost of confidence, Edwards went for a two-point conversion to win the game against the Chargers last week, rather than kicking the extra point and going into overtime. That's a player's coach. And the player who has improved most is former third-string QB, Tyler Thigpen. After a horrible effort in his first start (128 yards, one TD, three interceptions), Thigpen has passed for 710 yards, with six TDs and no picks in the last three games. Plus, the Chiefs will get Pro-Bowl RB Larry Johnson back and that should at least be good enough for a cover, maybe an upset.

Broncos (+6) over FALCONS

Respect the job first-year coach Mike Smith is doing with Atlanta, but the way Denver quarterback Jay Cutler can sling the ball, you can never count the Broncos out. With all the injuries on both sides of the ball, Denver is still sitting on top of the AFC West, and while we're not calling for the upset, this game seems destined to end with a late field goal and a cover for the Broncs.

Cowboys (-1) over REDSKINS

Tony Romo is back, and hopefully, he'll leave Jessica Simpson at home. Dallas, as you might imagine, has been two different teams this season: WT and WOT. With Tony, the Cowboys averaged 29.2 points per game. With out Tony, they have barely gotten to 14. The entire team will perk up with Romo at the controls, while Washington will struggle to replace Clinton Portis, the second leading rusher in the NFL.

GIANTS (-7) over Ravens

Smoke and mirrors, that's how Baltimore has built its 6-3 record. Take a look at the wins: Cincinnati, Houston, Cleveland twice, Miami, and Oakland. Miami is the only winning team in the bunch. The three losses: Tennessee, Indy and Pittsburgh. When the Ravens take on the cream of the NFL crop, they usually come up short. The New Yorkers have covered five of the last six at home, with an average winning margin of 16 points per game. Go Blue.

BUCCANEERS (-4) over Vikings

Tampa Bay is a perfect 4-0 at home this season, has won 10 of the last 13 in Florida, and should have a great afternoon against a Minnesota team that gives up a whopping 32 points per game on the road.

Rams (+6) over 49ERS

It's 2-7 vs. 2-7 which is basically an even matchup. So after giving 2-7 (Niners) three points for the homefield advantage, the line should be minus-3, but it's doubled that, plus. Doesn't make sense, so we're buying 2-7 . . . the dog.

Raiders (+10) over DOLPHINS

Miami has New England coming to town next week and will not pay any attention to the visitors from the West coast.

Texans (+9) over COLTS

With the exception of the game against Baltimore, Indy's largest winning margin was only four points.

JAGUARS (+3) over Titans

Somebody has to take down Tennessee, and Jacksonville could be that somebody.

PACKERS (-3) over Bears

This is the week that Chicago's four-game winning streak at Lambeau comes to an end.

Lions (+14) over PANTHERS

Would you believe that Detroit is 3-0 this season as a double-digit road dog? Would I lie?

SEAHAWKS (+3) over Cardinals

If the Leaning Tower of Pisa leans 5.5 degrees, our lean to Seattle is just 2.6 degrees.

STEELERS (-5) over Chargers

San Diego is 0-6 over the last 2-plus years in the Eastern time zone.

BILLS (-5) over Browns

Buffalo, which hasn't been in front of the MNF cameras since 2000, are gonna put on quite a show.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Allen Eastman/ ACE ACE

ALLEN EASTMAN

$2000.00 #402 Atlanta (-6) over Denver (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

$2000.00 #428 Washington (+1.5) over Dallas (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

$800.00 ‘Under’ 44.5 St. Louis at San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

$600.00 #407 Houston (+8.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m, Sunday, Nov. 16)

$3000.00 ‘Over’ 38.5 Minnesota at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

TEASER

HOU+18.5
WASH+11
SF UNDER 54...........................$480/$400

 

[ymmit2nd]

The Sharp Moves


Goodfellas:




SUNDAYS NFL PLAY
PITTSBURGH/SD OVER 42 (415PM)

 

[ymmit2nd]

2008-11-13 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE YEAR!
Pick # 1 Baltimore Ravens /New York Giants Under 40.5 -110

 

[brady1983]

Larry Ness' NFL Las Vegas Insider (7-2 TY)

Larry and his "unmatched" contacts have had a superb NFL season, going 7-2 or 77.8% ATS with his exclusive NFL Insiders. This week's NFL Insider has been designated as Larry's STRONGEST Las Vegas Insider play of NFL '08. "It always pays to be on the inside with Larry" but lucky Week 11 offers "something special." Want in?


TAMPA BAY BUCS

<table class="data" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell">
</td> <td class="datacell">Larry's Sunday Night 9*

Notre Dame dominated Navy (then gave Larry a scare) but he won another LEGEND Play in CFB (11-3 run s/'05!). He also said his MWC 9* would be the perfect compliment to his LEGEND and BYU (38-24 winner) was "all of that!" Want the perfect compliment to Larry's highest-rated Las Vegas Insider TY (9*)? Then don't miss his Sunday Night 9*

Dallas Cowboys
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WISE GUYS

5 Star Picks (Week 11):

Tennessee -3 over Jacksonville
Kansas City +5 over New Orleans
Denver +5.5 over Atlanta
Philadelphia/Cincinnati Over 42.5
Dallas/Washington Under 45.5


5-Star NFL Picks Season Total: 29-20-1 (59%)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spylock
Kansas City......1 unit
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

These are the top picks for the Hilton Contest for Week #11

#1 Tampa Bay 95
#2 Atlanta 94
#3 Jacksonville 89
#4 Dallas 81
#5 Tennessee 77
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Top 5 Hilton Selections (name/record/selections)

The Betting Doctor. 35 13 2 Gb Kc Det Sea Cle
Bryan Athey . 35 15 0 Oak Ind Min Sea Dal
Stylin' . 34 15 1 Nyj Ten Gb Ari Was
Vegasportsline . 33 16 1 Nyg Chi Kc Ari Pit
Aardvark . 33 16 1 Mia Bal Det Tb Sea

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Philadelphia at Cincinnati (Sunday 11/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Philadelphia -9 (-110)


As much as this looks like a game the Eagles could no-show, their are 10 teams in the NFC right now with an equal or better record. There is no playing with this game because an unexpected loss, and the Eagles are probably done. They are arguably the best 5-4 team in the league right now and certainly capable of a double-digit win in this one. Injuries to key players and a few bad breaks hurt them early. Those players have now gotten healthy and will make this team even better. The Eagles have the 9th rated defense in the league, have recorded 28 sacks, and will certainly be coming at Fitzpatrick with all kinds of blitz packages. Fitz's four TD's to six INT's shows a pick-6 here is not out of the question. Donovan McNabb is having a big year and with Kevin Curtis back at WR, and a healthy Brian Westbrook, this offense is one of the toughest to stop. Cincinnati's pass rush has mustered just nine sacks all season. McNabb will have all the time he needs to pick apart a suspect secondary. This one has "UGLY" potential with a very good, underrated Eagles team needing a big win. The Eagles are 20-14 ATS as a road favorite under Andy Reid. I'll lay the points here as a see a monster blowout.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doug Williams

Houston Texans (+9) Over the Indianapolis Colts (-9) -- This is a tough matchup every time that these division rivals take the field. An improved Colts team will take the win, but Houston 's rookie RB Steve Slaton should break at least one to keep this matchup close. Indy by a field goal, Texans for the cover.



Detroit Lions (+14) Over Carolina Panthers (-14) -- I just don't buy Carolina as explosive enough to beat anyone by more than two TDs in Week 11. The Lions haven't won a game, but the second start for Daunte Culpepper should be better than last time. The O/U at 40 is an attractive Over bet.



Baltimore Ravens (+7) Over New York Giants (-7) -- Does no one realize how many points Baltimore has been putting up with rookie QB Flacco over the past weeks? Couple that with a STAUNCH defense, and you've got all the makings for an upset. I like the Ravens in a surprisingly dominant fashion.



Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) Over Tennessee Titans (-3) -- Well, if it's underdog week, we better take down the undefeated team, right? Tennessee is strong, but I love how the Jags matchup against them. I really don't think Collins can throw two weeks in a row
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 11 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (16-13 = 55.2%)

Baltimore Ravens +7 over New York Giants

The Baltimore Ravens are an excellent football squad that will give the New York Giants all they can handle. The Public is overwhelmingly on New York, causing the line to move from Baltimore +6 to +7. Three out of four bets are landing on the mighty Giants. The Giants have been playing unbelievable football and we believe that they are riding high. Too high!

We'll "bet against the Public" and sell the Giants at this over-valued level. Moving from the "key number of 6" all the way to the "key 7" gives us some additional quantifiable value. We'll take the 6-3 Ravens, back the bloated line -- and look for a close game.

Baltimore Ravens +7

Detroit Lions +14 over Carolina Panthers

Long-time readers of the Sports Marketwatch must have seen this play coming! We couldn't resist taking a +14 point underdog. Detroit is horrible. We're taking Detroit and hoping they "suck a little less" this Sunday. Time to "man up" and find out who really believes in "betting against the Public!"

Detroit is the league's only winless team at 0-9. You can't get any lower than that, so there seems to be some value in buying the league's doormat at a low. At the same time, we get to sell the first place Carolina Panthers at a high -- winners of their last three games. Carolina has averaged about 20 points a game, so beating the 14 point spread is a mighty tall order. The line looks like it might increase to +14.5, so shop for the best line.

Detroit Lions +14

Seattle Seahawks +3 over Arizona Cardinals

This game will be the most lopsided-bet game of the weekend. The Public is betting this game like they have an advance copy of Monday's sports page. The sportsbooks are begging the Public to take Arizona -3. A huge 90% of the bets are taking the first place Cardinals. And, why not? Arizona is a first place team at 6-3, while Seattle is a weak 2-7.

We're cashing in on the current media frenzy surrounding Arizona and Kurt Warner. Seattle is a squad that's improving every week. Arizona is a team that is showing weakness. In addition, Seattle QB Hasselbeck is back in the starting line-up. This will help improve Seattle's stagnant offense. We also like this play because of the "home dog" factor -- particularly in a divisional match-up.

Seattle Seahawks +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (16-13 = 55.2%)

Baltimore +7
Detroit +14
Seattle +3
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[ymmit2nd]

Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers - Sunday November 16, 2008 1:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Detroit Lions +14 (-110)

 

[ProPel]

Hank Gola Best Bet For The day

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8-1-1 for the year
Pitt -5

 

[mjag21]

Don't know if this belongs but this is from John Clayton

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: Let's see: Since taking over as interim coach of the Raiders, Tom Cable has cut cornerback DeAngelo Hall and benched wide receiver Ronald Curry, safety Michael Huff and offensive tackle Kwame Harris. He's also taken the play calling away from offensive coordinator Greg Knapp. The result has been four losses in five games, and the Raiders have been outscored 70-13 in the first halves of the past five games. Under former coach Lane Kiffin, the Raiders outscored opponents 30-24 in the first half, but they had trouble closing out games. Under Cable, the Raiders get off to horrible starts and can't recover. Now they play an East Coast game in which Raiders body clocks will be at 10 a.m. Don't you think there's a chance the Dolphins might jump on them early?

Dolphins are -6.5 1st half

 

[THECHICAGOCONNECTION]

ChicagoSportsConnection

ChicagoSportsConnection
PAID/confirmed
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CSC NFL NORTH >P>O>W>
TAMPA -4 vs Minnesota..................1:00 EDT
Tampa very tough @ home....4-0.
Won by 10,24,9&15 points.
Minny is a poor road team...1-3 record.
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CSC NBA
UNDER 188 Miami-Toronto..............1:05 EDT
(note early start time)
MIA has held opponents to 83 or less in 3 of L6.
TOR has scored 96,87,89,92,93&91 in L6 games.
........................................................................
NEW YORK +1.5 vs Dallas................6:05 EDT
(note unusual start time)
Wrong team is favored here in our opinion.
NYK have won 5 of L6
DALL has lost 5 straight & will play 3rd in 4.
.......................................................................
MINNESOTA +9 @ Denver................8:05 EDT
MINN is 1-7, but they have been in every game.....
..only a couple DD losses and those were by 10 & 12.
They played yesterday, but that will help them cause
they had 3 days off before that.
DENV will play their 1st game home off the recent
East Coast swing.
This is their 3rd in 4.
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