FRANK PATRON
30000 UNIT LOCK #28
ARIZONA CARDINALS -2.5
If you have -3 buy it to -2.5. Even though I do not feel we will ever need that half point because Arizona should roll this team by 17 easy. They have too much talent on offense and Seattle is off another cross country flight. Look for the younger fresher legs of Arizona to crush this over matched Seattle squad.
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30000 UNIT LOCK #28
ARIZONA CARDINALS -2.5
If you have -3 buy it to -2.5. Even though I do not feel we will ever need that half point because Arizona should roll this team by 17 easy. They have too much talent on offense and Seattle is off another cross country flight. Look for the younger fresher legs of Arizona to crush this over matched Seattle squad.
<!-- / message -->
THE GOLD SHEET
N.Y. JETS by 7 over New England (Thursday, Nov. 13)
TAMPA BAY by 14 over Minnesota
OVER THE TOTAL in the Denver-Atlanta game
*New York Jets 20 - NEW ENGLAND 13—Brett Favre wasn’t able to
alter the dynamics of this incestuous rivalry when teams first met in Week Two
in N.Y., but that was just his second start for Jets. With Favre more familiar with
new offense and Thomas Jones (149 YR last week vs. Rams) running up a
storm, Jets capable of extending series visitor dominance (road team has
covered last 6 reg.-season meetings). Stout N.Y. defense (just 3.1 ypc; 31
sacks) should force Matt Cassel to be more of a playmaker than Bill Belichick
would prefer. TV—NFL NETWORK
(08-Ne. 19-NYJ 10...Ne.18-12 Ny.21/104 Ne.33/104 Ne.16/23/0/156 Ny.18/26/1/152 Ne.0 Ny.0)
(07-Ne. 38-JETS 14...Ne.28-17 Ne.37/134 Ny.19/60 Ne.22/28/0/297 Ny.21/31/0/167 Ne.0 Ny.0)
(07-NE. 20-Jets 10...Ne.16-13 Ne.35/131 Ny.17/90 Ny.25/40/1/146 Ne.14/27/1/134 Ne.0 Ny.1)
(08-N. Eng. +1 19-10; 07-N. Eng. -6' 38-14, NEW ENG. -21 20-10...SR: New England 49-48-1)
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 16
OVER THE TOTAL ATLANTA 31 - Denver 30—Denver Pro Bowl CB
Champ Bailey (played at Georgia) says he expects to return from his groin
injury. That might not help the undersized defensive front of the Broncos,
missing two starting LBs and giving up 5.1 ypc in containing bruising RB
Michael Turner (890 YR) and fleet Jerious Norwood (365 YR TY; 65-yd. TDC
last week). But can Atlanta’s secondary (3 ints. last week) cope with Jay Cutler
and premium targets Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal (combined 109 recs.).
Denver “over” 10-3-1 last 14 away; Falcs’ 4-0 vs. spread at home TY.
(04-Atlanta +6' 41-28...SR: Denver 8-4)
TAMPA BAY 30 - Minnesota 16—Insiders say Jon Gruden very
pleased the way his gradually-rebuilt OL now developing. And Joey Galloway
is back in action to stretch the stretchable Viking defense, drawing attention
away from new go-to WR Antonio Bryant (45 recs.). Minny 1-3 vs. the spread
on the road TY (“over” all four), and Adrian Peterson not likely to flourish on the
grass vs. the quick & stubborn T.B. defense, refreshed after its bye week. Gus
Frerotte smart, but not fast enough here. (05-T. Bay +6 24-13...SR: Min. 31-19)
MIAMI 26 - Oakland 10—The NFL’s six western-most teams are 0-13 SU
and 3-9-1 vs. the spread this year playing in east coast states (plus
Pennsylvania). The on-going coaching and roster changes (e.g., release of CB
DeAngelo Hall), plus player demotions and injuries, make this a one-sided
game in terms of stability and leadership. Worse yet, the Raiders had fallen to 30th
vs. the run prior to last week and must cope with Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams.
Number is puffy, but Oakland’s frequent breakdowns make for low percentages.
(07-Oak. 35-MIAMI 17...O.21-13 O.49/299 M.20/141 M.14/25/2/137 O.5/12/0/70 O.1 M.0)
(07-Oakland +4 35-17...SR: Oakland 19-12-1)
NY GIANTS 23 - Baltimore 19—Ravens have the key element to needed to
make things difficult for the champs, namely, a stout run defense to keep N.Y.’s
bruising ground game in check. And Baltimore’s own McGahee-McClain-Rice
rush offense taking lots of pressure off Joe Flacco, who was sacked only three
times and intercepted just once at Pittsburgh, when he impressively drove the
Ravens for the tying 4th-Q TD before losing in OT. Baltimore TE Todd Heap is
a special weapon when healthy, and he caught two TDs last week.
(04-BALTIMORE -10 37-14...SR: Baltimore 3-0)
INDIANAPOLIS 30 - Houston 26—Sage Rosenfels still has nightmares
about TY’s first meeting, when he fumbled twice and tossed an int. in the last
eight minutes, as Houston became the first team to blow a 17-point lead in the
last 5 minutes to lose in regulation. Hot Texan WR Andre Johnson was 9 for 131
receiving in that game. With Indy only 1-3 vs. the spread so far at “The Luke,”
and with both defenses hurting (Texans 8-1 “over” TY), might look for eighth
straight “over” in series.
(08-Indy 31-HOU. 27...H.23-18 H.32/156 I.22/79 H.21/33/1/235 I.25/34/1/235 I.0 H.2)
(07-Indy 30-HOU. 24...I.18-16 I.29/92 H.17/40 I.20/29/0/270 H.27/33/2/214 I.0 H.0)
(07-INDY 38-Hou. 15...I.33-18 I.31/120 H.19/66 I.31/40/0/338 H.22/36/3/233 I.1 H.0)
(08-Indy -3' 31-27; 07-Indy -6' 30-24, INDY -7 38-15...SR: Indianapolis 12-1)
Tennessee 23 - JACKSONVILLE 16—While the Tennessee offense has its
flaws (no dynamic WRs, lack of pass-run balance in a pass-oriented league),
the Titan defense (13 ppg, best in the league) keeps shining through. One key
factor on that unit has been DT Albert Haynesworth (6 sacks), opposed this
week by the Jags’ fill-in Gs. Vince Young (2 ints.) was the Tenn. QB in the first
meeting opening weekend. Must note Jags15-6-1 dog mark last 22 (2-0 TY).
(08-TENN. 17-Jack. 10...T.14-13 T.32/137 J.17/33 T.14/24/2/172 J.23/35/2/156 T.0 J.1)
(07-Tenn. 13-JACK. 10...T.22-13 T.46/278 J.18/72 J.17/30/0/200 T.11/18/1/68 T.0 J.1)
(07-Jack. 28-TENN. 13...J.19-17 J.44/166 T.19/62 T.24/41/2/230 J.13/23/0/96 J.1 T.1)
(08-TENN. +3 17-10; 07-Tenn. +7 13-10, Jack. +4' 28-13...SR: Tennessee 16-12)
Chicago 24 - GREEN BAY 23—Kyle Orton might return at QB, but Bears can
go to war with Rex Grossman, who has reduced his mistakes since call from
bullpen two weeks ago. Even the “bad Rex” can hand off to Matt Forte, which
could spell big problems for the suddenly-soft G.B. rush defense allowing 5
ypc and has been gashed for 175 YR or more six times already TY.
Meanwhile, inconsistencies in Pack’s own infantry creating an increased
burden for Aaron Rodgers.
(07-Chi. 27-G. BAY 20...G.18-16 G.22/121 C.33/82 G.29/40/2/318 C.15/25/1/203 C.0 G.3)
(07-CHI. 35-G. Bay 7...C.14-13 C.45/139 G.21/125 G.17/32/2/149 C.8/14/0/101 C.0 G.0)
(07-Chicago +3 27-20, CHICAGO +8 35-7...SR: Chicago 90-79-6)
Philadelphia 27 - CINCINNATI 13—Eagles 4-1 their last 5 as a road favorite,
and the emergence of speed WR DeSean Jackson to go with Brian Westbrook
& Donovan McNabb gives Philly quite a formidable group of “triplets” compared
with Cincy’s Chad Ocho Cinco, Cedric Benson & Ryan Fitzpatrick (62%, but 4
TDs vs. 6 ints.; 1-4 vs. spread as starter TY). On defense, Bengals’
combination of only 14 sacks & ints. was second-worst in NFL prior to last
weekend. (04-Cincinnati -3' 38-10...SR: Cincinnati 7-3)
New Orleans 30 - KANSAS CITY 20—Reggie Bush says he expects to
return from his knee injury for this game, while Chiefs’ Larry Johnson will have
concluded his NFL suspension. Tyler Thigpen & Jamaal Charles now appear
to be the future of the K.C. offense. But the present of the Chiefs’ defense (only
6 sacks TY!) clearly not ready for the quick-firing Drew Brees (17 TDP), eager
to atone for his 3 ints. of last week.
(04-NEW ORLEANS +3' 27-20...SR: EVEN 4-4)
CAROLINA 27 - Detroit 9—Panthers’ bright rookie C Ryan Kalil and powerful
rookie RT Jeff Otah back in action after lingering ankle injuries, improving the
already-potent Carolina ground game. That’s good news for Panthers, now 6-
0-2 vs. spread last eight at home. Further good news is the arrival of the limited
Detroit offense (7 sacks last week) and the see-through Lion defense (31 ppg).
Dean Stanton or Daunte Culpepper vs. Julius Peppers is not good.
(05-Carolina P 21-20...SR: Carolina 3-1)
TAMPA BAY 30 - Minnesota 16—Insiders say Jon Gruden very
pleased the way his gradually-rebuilt OL now developing. And Joey Galloway
is back in action to stretch the stretchable Viking defense, drawing attention
away from new go-to WR Antonio Bryant (45 recs.). Minny 1-3 vs. the spread
on the road TY (“over” all four), and Adrian Peterson not likely to flourish on the
grass vs. the quick & stubborn T.B. defense, refreshed after its bye week. Gus
Frerotte smart, but not fast enough here. (05-T. Bay +6 24-13...SR: Min. 31-19)
SAN FRANCISCO 23 - St. Louis 16—Mike Singletary, in his post-game
tirade after his first game as a HC three weeks ago, inadvertently
shouted the wish of all handicappers when he yelled, “I want winners!”
Victory quite possible vs. the flailing Rams if Steven Jackson (thigh) is still
sidelined from an offense producing only 14 ppg while the defense gives up 31.
Niners 6-1 vs. spread in last 7 in series; own the better defense.
(07-S. Frn. 17-ST. LOU. 16...St.20-8 Sf.28/89 St.23/61 St.24/41/0/331 Sf.11/17/0/97 Sf.2 St.3)
(07-St. Lou. 13-S. FRN. 9...St.15-13 St.29/102 Sf.16/32 Sf.20/42/2/212 St.21/32/0/105 St.0 Sf.0)
(07-San Francisco +3 17-16, St. Louis -3 13-9...SR: St. Louis 60-55-2)
SEATTLE 21 - Arizona 20—Return of Matt Hasselbeck (check status) is set
for this game after he missed five straight with a herniated disk that has been
fazing his knee strength. However, even if it’s Seneca Wallace again, he has
at least stabilized the offense (no turnovers last week in cover at Miami),
meaning the visiting Cards will have to fully earn everything they get on this
tough field vs. the four-time defending NFC West champs. Hawks’ defense can
keep Warner on the move.
(07-ARIZ. 23-Sea. 20...A.20-18 A.26/132 S.24/92 A.23/37/1/299 S.22/36/0/278 A.0 S.1)
(07-SEA. 42-Ariz. 21...A.23-21 S.28/80 A.16/50 A.28/46/5/305 S.22/33/0/269 S.0 A.0)
(07-ARIZONA +3 23-20, SEATTLE -7 42-21...SR: EVEN 9-9)
PITTSBURGH 28 - San Diego 19—S.D. (7-2-1 as a dog) is getting points for
the first time since Chargers’ injury-hampered AFC title game last season in
Foxborough. It’s pretty clear S.D. not playing to that level these days.
Pittsburgh might be, if it could only keep its key players healthy. Willie Parker
(shoulder) expected back this week. Chargers, tops in takeaways LY, now very
vulnerable to the pass. Steeler defense hopes OLB LaMarr Woodley (9½
sacks; out with calf injury last week) ready to go. Men of Steel 44-15-1 “over”
last 60at Heinz. (06-SAN DIEGO -3' 23-13...SR: Pittsburgh 19-8)
*Dallas 26 - WASHINGTON 23—It’s not quite an elimination game for
Dallas, but Cowboys’ wobbling playoff hopes (and HC Phillips’ continued
employment) can’t afford another divisional loss and a season sweep vs.
Redskins. With Tony Romo expected back—plus healthier Felix Jones & JasonWitten to go with recently-acquired WR Roy Williams—must expect supreme
effort after much-needed bye week. Washington QB Jason Campbell (finally
threw two ints.!) proved mortal two weeks ago vs. Steelers. TV—NBC
(08-Wash. 26-DAL. 24...W.22-21 W.34/164 D.11/44 D.28/47/1/300 W.20/31/0/220 W.0 D.0)
(07-DAL. 28-Wash. 23...W.28-19 D.25/72 W.17/62 W.34/55/1/361 D.22/32/1/287 D.0 W.1)
(07-WASH. 27-Dal. 6...W.22-7 W.37/131 D.16/1 W.22/31/0/223 D.14/27/1/146 W.2 D.0)
(08-Wash. +10' 26-24; 07-DALLAS -10' 28-23, WASH. -9 27-6...SR: Dallas 56-39-2)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17
*Cleveland 24 - BUFFALO 20—Cleveland has blown big leads at home in
recent weeks, but Browns have covered their last 3 away. Brady Quinn (66%,
2 TDs) appeared quite ready to the lead attack in his first start vs. Denver.
Meanwhile, worst-case scenario materializing for fading Buffalo, with defensive
injuries mounting, running game bottled up, and 2nd-year QB Trent Edwards (2
picks last week at N.E.) unable to hit big gainers. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-CLEVE. 8-Buf. 0...C.16-11 C.37/174 B.32/108 C.9/24/0/130 B.13/33/0/124 C.0 B.0)
(07-CLEVELAND -5' 8-0...SR: Cleveland 9-5)
N.Y. JETS by 7 over New England (Thursday, Nov. 13)
TAMPA BAY by 14 over Minnesota
OVER THE TOTAL in the Denver-Atlanta game
*New York Jets 20 - NEW ENGLAND 13—Brett Favre wasn’t able to
alter the dynamics of this incestuous rivalry when teams first met in Week Two
in N.Y., but that was just his second start for Jets. With Favre more familiar with
new offense and Thomas Jones (149 YR last week vs. Rams) running up a
storm, Jets capable of extending series visitor dominance (road team has
covered last 6 reg.-season meetings). Stout N.Y. defense (just 3.1 ypc; 31
sacks) should force Matt Cassel to be more of a playmaker than Bill Belichick
would prefer. TV—NFL NETWORK
(08-Ne. 19-NYJ 10...Ne.18-12 Ny.21/104 Ne.33/104 Ne.16/23/0/156 Ny.18/26/1/152 Ne.0 Ny.0)
(07-Ne. 38-JETS 14...Ne.28-17 Ne.37/134 Ny.19/60 Ne.22/28/0/297 Ny.21/31/0/167 Ne.0 Ny.0)
(07-NE. 20-Jets 10...Ne.16-13 Ne.35/131 Ny.17/90 Ny.25/40/1/146 Ne.14/27/1/134 Ne.0 Ny.1)
(08-N. Eng. +1 19-10; 07-N. Eng. -6' 38-14, NEW ENG. -21 20-10...SR: New England 49-48-1)
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 16
OVER THE TOTAL ATLANTA 31 - Denver 30—Denver Pro Bowl CB
Champ Bailey (played at Georgia) says he expects to return from his groin
injury. That might not help the undersized defensive front of the Broncos,
missing two starting LBs and giving up 5.1 ypc in containing bruising RB
Michael Turner (890 YR) and fleet Jerious Norwood (365 YR TY; 65-yd. TDC
last week). But can Atlanta’s secondary (3 ints. last week) cope with Jay Cutler
and premium targets Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal (combined 109 recs.).
Denver “over” 10-3-1 last 14 away; Falcs’ 4-0 vs. spread at home TY.
(04-Atlanta +6' 41-28...SR: Denver 8-4)
TAMPA BAY 30 - Minnesota 16—Insiders say Jon Gruden very
pleased the way his gradually-rebuilt OL now developing. And Joey Galloway
is back in action to stretch the stretchable Viking defense, drawing attention
away from new go-to WR Antonio Bryant (45 recs.). Minny 1-3 vs. the spread
on the road TY (“over” all four), and Adrian Peterson not likely to flourish on the
grass vs. the quick & stubborn T.B. defense, refreshed after its bye week. Gus
Frerotte smart, but not fast enough here. (05-T. Bay +6 24-13...SR: Min. 31-19)
MIAMI 26 - Oakland 10—The NFL’s six western-most teams are 0-13 SU
and 3-9-1 vs. the spread this year playing in east coast states (plus
Pennsylvania). The on-going coaching and roster changes (e.g., release of CB
DeAngelo Hall), plus player demotions and injuries, make this a one-sided
game in terms of stability and leadership. Worse yet, the Raiders had fallen to 30th
vs. the run prior to last week and must cope with Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams.
Number is puffy, but Oakland’s frequent breakdowns make for low percentages.
(07-Oak. 35-MIAMI 17...O.21-13 O.49/299 M.20/141 M.14/25/2/137 O.5/12/0/70 O.1 M.0)
(07-Oakland +4 35-17...SR: Oakland 19-12-1)
NY GIANTS 23 - Baltimore 19—Ravens have the key element to needed to
make things difficult for the champs, namely, a stout run defense to keep N.Y.’s
bruising ground game in check. And Baltimore’s own McGahee-McClain-Rice
rush offense taking lots of pressure off Joe Flacco, who was sacked only three
times and intercepted just once at Pittsburgh, when he impressively drove the
Ravens for the tying 4th-Q TD before losing in OT. Baltimore TE Todd Heap is
a special weapon when healthy, and he caught two TDs last week.
(04-BALTIMORE -10 37-14...SR: Baltimore 3-0)
INDIANAPOLIS 30 - Houston 26—Sage Rosenfels still has nightmares
about TY’s first meeting, when he fumbled twice and tossed an int. in the last
eight minutes, as Houston became the first team to blow a 17-point lead in the
last 5 minutes to lose in regulation. Hot Texan WR Andre Johnson was 9 for 131
receiving in that game. With Indy only 1-3 vs. the spread so far at “The Luke,”
and with both defenses hurting (Texans 8-1 “over” TY), might look for eighth
straight “over” in series.
(08-Indy 31-HOU. 27...H.23-18 H.32/156 I.22/79 H.21/33/1/235 I.25/34/1/235 I.0 H.2)
(07-Indy 30-HOU. 24...I.18-16 I.29/92 H.17/40 I.20/29/0/270 H.27/33/2/214 I.0 H.0)
(07-INDY 38-Hou. 15...I.33-18 I.31/120 H.19/66 I.31/40/0/338 H.22/36/3/233 I.1 H.0)
(08-Indy -3' 31-27; 07-Indy -6' 30-24, INDY -7 38-15...SR: Indianapolis 12-1)
Tennessee 23 - JACKSONVILLE 16—While the Tennessee offense has its
flaws (no dynamic WRs, lack of pass-run balance in a pass-oriented league),
the Titan defense (13 ppg, best in the league) keeps shining through. One key
factor on that unit has been DT Albert Haynesworth (6 sacks), opposed this
week by the Jags’ fill-in Gs. Vince Young (2 ints.) was the Tenn. QB in the first
meeting opening weekend. Must note Jags15-6-1 dog mark last 22 (2-0 TY).
(08-TENN. 17-Jack. 10...T.14-13 T.32/137 J.17/33 T.14/24/2/172 J.23/35/2/156 T.0 J.1)
(07-Tenn. 13-JACK. 10...T.22-13 T.46/278 J.18/72 J.17/30/0/200 T.11/18/1/68 T.0 J.1)
(07-Jack. 28-TENN. 13...J.19-17 J.44/166 T.19/62 T.24/41/2/230 J.13/23/0/96 J.1 T.1)
(08-TENN. +3 17-10; 07-Tenn. +7 13-10, Jack. +4' 28-13...SR: Tennessee 16-12)
Chicago 24 - GREEN BAY 23—Kyle Orton might return at QB, but Bears can
go to war with Rex Grossman, who has reduced his mistakes since call from
bullpen two weeks ago. Even the “bad Rex” can hand off to Matt Forte, which
could spell big problems for the suddenly-soft G.B. rush defense allowing 5
ypc and has been gashed for 175 YR or more six times already TY.
Meanwhile, inconsistencies in Pack’s own infantry creating an increased
burden for Aaron Rodgers.
(07-Chi. 27-G. BAY 20...G.18-16 G.22/121 C.33/82 G.29/40/2/318 C.15/25/1/203 C.0 G.3)
(07-CHI. 35-G. Bay 7...C.14-13 C.45/139 G.21/125 G.17/32/2/149 C.8/14/0/101 C.0 G.0)
(07-Chicago +3 27-20, CHICAGO +8 35-7...SR: Chicago 90-79-6)
Philadelphia 27 - CINCINNATI 13—Eagles 4-1 their last 5 as a road favorite,
and the emergence of speed WR DeSean Jackson to go with Brian Westbrook
& Donovan McNabb gives Philly quite a formidable group of “triplets” compared
with Cincy’s Chad Ocho Cinco, Cedric Benson & Ryan Fitzpatrick (62%, but 4
TDs vs. 6 ints.; 1-4 vs. spread as starter TY). On defense, Bengals’
combination of only 14 sacks & ints. was second-worst in NFL prior to last
weekend. (04-Cincinnati -3' 38-10...SR: Cincinnati 7-3)
New Orleans 30 - KANSAS CITY 20—Reggie Bush says he expects to
return from his knee injury for this game, while Chiefs’ Larry Johnson will have
concluded his NFL suspension. Tyler Thigpen & Jamaal Charles now appear
to be the future of the K.C. offense. But the present of the Chiefs’ defense (only
6 sacks TY!) clearly not ready for the quick-firing Drew Brees (17 TDP), eager
to atone for his 3 ints. of last week.
(04-NEW ORLEANS +3' 27-20...SR: EVEN 4-4)
CAROLINA 27 - Detroit 9—Panthers’ bright rookie C Ryan Kalil and powerful
rookie RT Jeff Otah back in action after lingering ankle injuries, improving the
already-potent Carolina ground game. That’s good news for Panthers, now 6-
0-2 vs. spread last eight at home. Further good news is the arrival of the limited
Detroit offense (7 sacks last week) and the see-through Lion defense (31 ppg).
Dean Stanton or Daunte Culpepper vs. Julius Peppers is not good.
(05-Carolina P 21-20...SR: Carolina 3-1)
TAMPA BAY 30 - Minnesota 16—Insiders say Jon Gruden very
pleased the way his gradually-rebuilt OL now developing. And Joey Galloway
is back in action to stretch the stretchable Viking defense, drawing attention
away from new go-to WR Antonio Bryant (45 recs.). Minny 1-3 vs. the spread
on the road TY (“over” all four), and Adrian Peterson not likely to flourish on the
grass vs. the quick & stubborn T.B. defense, refreshed after its bye week. Gus
Frerotte smart, but not fast enough here. (05-T. Bay +6 24-13...SR: Min. 31-19)
SAN FRANCISCO 23 - St. Louis 16—Mike Singletary, in his post-game
tirade after his first game as a HC three weeks ago, inadvertently
shouted the wish of all handicappers when he yelled, “I want winners!”
Victory quite possible vs. the flailing Rams if Steven Jackson (thigh) is still
sidelined from an offense producing only 14 ppg while the defense gives up 31.
Niners 6-1 vs. spread in last 7 in series; own the better defense.
(07-S. Frn. 17-ST. LOU. 16...St.20-8 Sf.28/89 St.23/61 St.24/41/0/331 Sf.11/17/0/97 Sf.2 St.3)
(07-St. Lou. 13-S. FRN. 9...St.15-13 St.29/102 Sf.16/32 Sf.20/42/2/212 St.21/32/0/105 St.0 Sf.0)
(07-San Francisco +3 17-16, St. Louis -3 13-9...SR: St. Louis 60-55-2)
SEATTLE 21 - Arizona 20—Return of Matt Hasselbeck (check status) is set
for this game after he missed five straight with a herniated disk that has been
fazing his knee strength. However, even if it’s Seneca Wallace again, he has
at least stabilized the offense (no turnovers last week in cover at Miami),
meaning the visiting Cards will have to fully earn everything they get on this
tough field vs. the four-time defending NFC West champs. Hawks’ defense can
keep Warner on the move.
(07-ARIZ. 23-Sea. 20...A.20-18 A.26/132 S.24/92 A.23/37/1/299 S.22/36/0/278 A.0 S.1)
(07-SEA. 42-Ariz. 21...A.23-21 S.28/80 A.16/50 A.28/46/5/305 S.22/33/0/269 S.0 A.0)
(07-ARIZONA +3 23-20, SEATTLE -7 42-21...SR: EVEN 9-9)
PITTSBURGH 28 - San Diego 19—S.D. (7-2-1 as a dog) is getting points for
the first time since Chargers’ injury-hampered AFC title game last season in
Foxborough. It’s pretty clear S.D. not playing to that level these days.
Pittsburgh might be, if it could only keep its key players healthy. Willie Parker
(shoulder) expected back this week. Chargers, tops in takeaways LY, now very
vulnerable to the pass. Steeler defense hopes OLB LaMarr Woodley (9½
sacks; out with calf injury last week) ready to go. Men of Steel 44-15-1 “over”
last 60at Heinz. (06-SAN DIEGO -3' 23-13...SR: Pittsburgh 19-8)
*Dallas 26 - WASHINGTON 23—It’s not quite an elimination game for
Dallas, but Cowboys’ wobbling playoff hopes (and HC Phillips’ continued
employment) can’t afford another divisional loss and a season sweep vs.
Redskins. With Tony Romo expected back—plus healthier Felix Jones & JasonWitten to go with recently-acquired WR Roy Williams—must expect supreme
effort after much-needed bye week. Washington QB Jason Campbell (finally
threw two ints.!) proved mortal two weeks ago vs. Steelers. TV—NBC
(08-Wash. 26-DAL. 24...W.22-21 W.34/164 D.11/44 D.28/47/1/300 W.20/31/0/220 W.0 D.0)
(07-DAL. 28-Wash. 23...W.28-19 D.25/72 W.17/62 W.34/55/1/361 D.22/32/1/287 D.0 W.1)
(07-WASH. 27-Dal. 6...W.22-7 W.37/131 D.16/1 W.22/31/0/223 D.14/27/1/146 W.2 D.0)
(08-Wash. +10' 26-24; 07-DALLAS -10' 28-23, WASH. -9 27-6...SR: Dallas 56-39-2)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17
*Cleveland 24 - BUFFALO 20—Cleveland has blown big leads at home in
recent weeks, but Browns have covered their last 3 away. Brady Quinn (66%,
2 TDs) appeared quite ready to the lead attack in his first start vs. Denver.
Meanwhile, worst-case scenario materializing for fading Buffalo, with defensive
injuries mounting, running game bottled up, and 2nd-year QB Trent Edwards (2
picks last week at N.E.) unable to hit big gainers. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-CLEVE. 8-Buf. 0...C.16-11 C.37/174 B.32/108 C.9/24/0/130 B.13/33/0/124 C.0 B.0)
(07-CLEVELAND -5' 8-0...SR: Cleveland 9-5)
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
MINNESOTA-T.B. "OVER"
History has shown us that many NFL "totals" trends are apt to
continue for a good while. And such might be the case with the
recent developments involving Minnesota, especially on the
road, where the Vikings will be again this Sunday at Tampa Bay.
Minnesota has been "over" its first four on the road this year and
"over" 5 of its last 6 overall. And the Bucs have been going "over"
more often than not lately, too, "over" 10 of their last 16 regularseason
games dating to midway in the '07 campaign.
CLEVELAND
The season has started to go pear-shaped for the Buffalo Bills,
who face a tough challenge Monday night at Orchard Park when
Cleveland pays a visit. The Bills are definitely sliding, with no
wins or covers in their last 3 and 4 of their last 5 games.
Meanwhile, the Browns, though lately perfecting the art of
blowing big leads at home, have nonetheless proven a combative
performer on the road, covering their last three as a visitor, and 7
of their last 10 away.
NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND (Thursday, November 13)...Note that
the road team has covered the last 6 regular-season meetings
between these two. Belichick also “under” 8-2-1 last 11 on board.
Tech edge-slight to Jets and “under”, based on series and
“totals” trends.
DENVER at ATLANTA...Falcons 4-0 SU and vs. line at home TY.
Falcs also “over” 3-1 at Georgia Dome TY and “over” 9-3 at home
since ‘07. Shan just 4-12 last 16 against number on road. Broncos
also “over” 10-3-1 last 14 on road. Tech edge-“Over” and Falcons,
based on “totals” and team trends.
OAKLAND at MIAMI...Raiders 1-6 vs. line last 7 TY, now 29-60-1
overall vs. spread since SB XXXVII. Tech edge-Dolphins, based on
Raider woes.
BALTIMORE at NY GIANTS...Ravens “over” 10-4-1 their last 15 as
visitor. Giants also “over” last 3 as host and “over” 9-3 at Meadowlands
since LY. Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.
HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS...Texans “over” 8-1 TY, “over” 21-8-
1 last 30. Last 7 in this series “over” as well. Tech edge-“Over”,
based on “totals” trends.
TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE...Dog has covered the last 4
meetings. Titans now 8-1 vs. line TY, however. Note that Jags,
despite TY’s disappointments, still 2-0 as dog in ‘08, and 15-6-1 last
22 as short overall. Tech edge-slight to Jags, based on team
trends.
CHICAGO at GREEN BAY...Bears 3-0-1 vs. line last 4 at Lambeau.
Note Bears “over” 29-16-1 last 46 on board. Pack “over” 10-4 last 14
at Lambeau. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Bears, based on
“totals” and series trends.
PHILADELPHIA at CINCINNATI...Andy Reid 4-1 vs. line last 5 as
road chalk. Marvin Lewis 10-20-1 vs. number last 31 at Paul Brown
Stadium. Tech edge-Eagles, based on team trends.
NEW ORLEANS at KANSAS CITY...Saints yet to be road chalk TY
but were 4-1 vs. line in role the past two seasons. Saints also “over”
10-4 last 14 away from home. Chiefs also “over” 8-4 last 12 at
Arrowhead. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Saints, based on
“totals” and team trends.
DETROIT at CAROLINA...Panthers 3-0-2 vs. line as host TY (the
same as chalk mark TY), now 6-0-2 against number last 8 at
Charlotte! Carolina also “under” 9-3-1 last 13 as host, but Lions “over”
10-4 last 14 away. Tech edge-Panthers, based on recent home
mark.
MINNESOTA at TAMPA BAY...Bucs no covers last 3 TY but still 9-
4 vs. line at Raymond James Stadium since LY (3-1 TY). Vikes “over”
first 4 on road TY. Tech edge-"Over' and slight to Bucs, based on
team and “totals” trends.
ST. LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO...49ers had covered 6 straight in
series before failing to do so in last ‘07 meeting. Last 4 and 7 of last
9 meetings “under” as well. Tech edge-slight to “under” and 49ers,
based on “totals” and series trends.
ARIZONA at SEATTLE...“Overs” 7-1 last 8 in series. Seattle “over”
8-4 last 11 on board. Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.
SAN DIEGO at PITTSBURGH...Bolts 7-2-1 as dog since ‘05, but
Norv 1-4 vs. line away from home TY. Bolts “over” 16-7 last 23 away,
Steel “over” 44-15-1 last 60 at Heinz Field! Tech edge-“Over” and
Steelers, based on “totals” and team trends
DALLAS at WASHINGTON... Cowboys 1-5 vs. line last 6 TY and
just 1-3 last 4 as dog (0-1 TY). Cowboys have also lost last 2 and
failed to cover last 4 and 6 of last 7 against Skins. Skins “under” last
3 at home TY and “under” 5-2-1 for Zorn in ‘08. Tech edge-
Redskins and slight to “under”, based on team, series, and
“totals” trends.
CLEVELAND at BUFFALO (Monday, November 17)...Romeo has
covered his last 3 as visitor TY. Bills no covers 4 of last 5 TY. Tech
edge-Browns, based on recent trends
NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-DENVER over Atlanta, GREEN BAY*
over Chicago, JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee.
FAMILIARITY-JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee, GREEN BAY#
over Chicago, WASHINGTON# over Dallas.
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-No plays this week.
NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets (11/13).
SCORE 40 LETDOWN-NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets (11/13), NY
GIANTS over Baltimore.
*-If underdog. #-If dog, pick, or 1-point favorite. @-May conflict with
other tech system(s). For preferred TGS EXTRA!!! recommendation,
consult Technician’s Corner and/or Tech Plays of Week. Line moves
after Sunday night can alter selections in certain systems
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
MINNESOTA-T.B. "OVER"
History has shown us that many NFL "totals" trends are apt to
continue for a good while. And such might be the case with the
recent developments involving Minnesota, especially on the
road, where the Vikings will be again this Sunday at Tampa Bay.
Minnesota has been "over" its first four on the road this year and
"over" 5 of its last 6 overall. And the Bucs have been going "over"
more often than not lately, too, "over" 10 of their last 16 regularseason
games dating to midway in the '07 campaign.
CLEVELAND
The season has started to go pear-shaped for the Buffalo Bills,
who face a tough challenge Monday night at Orchard Park when
Cleveland pays a visit. The Bills are definitely sliding, with no
wins or covers in their last 3 and 4 of their last 5 games.
Meanwhile, the Browns, though lately perfecting the art of
blowing big leads at home, have nonetheless proven a combative
performer on the road, covering their last three as a visitor, and 7
of their last 10 away.
NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND (Thursday, November 13)...Note that
the road team has covered the last 6 regular-season meetings
between these two. Belichick also “under” 8-2-1 last 11 on board.
Tech edge-slight to Jets and “under”, based on series and
“totals” trends.
DENVER at ATLANTA...Falcons 4-0 SU and vs. line at home TY.
Falcs also “over” 3-1 at Georgia Dome TY and “over” 9-3 at home
since ‘07. Shan just 4-12 last 16 against number on road. Broncos
also “over” 10-3-1 last 14 on road. Tech edge-“Over” and Falcons,
based on “totals” and team trends.
OAKLAND at MIAMI...Raiders 1-6 vs. line last 7 TY, now 29-60-1
overall vs. spread since SB XXXVII. Tech edge-Dolphins, based on
Raider woes.
BALTIMORE at NY GIANTS...Ravens “over” 10-4-1 their last 15 as
visitor. Giants also “over” last 3 as host and “over” 9-3 at Meadowlands
since LY. Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.
HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS...Texans “over” 8-1 TY, “over” 21-8-
1 last 30. Last 7 in this series “over” as well. Tech edge-“Over”,
based on “totals” trends.
TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE...Dog has covered the last 4
meetings. Titans now 8-1 vs. line TY, however. Note that Jags,
despite TY’s disappointments, still 2-0 as dog in ‘08, and 15-6-1 last
22 as short overall. Tech edge-slight to Jags, based on team
trends.
CHICAGO at GREEN BAY...Bears 3-0-1 vs. line last 4 at Lambeau.
Note Bears “over” 29-16-1 last 46 on board. Pack “over” 10-4 last 14
at Lambeau. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Bears, based on
“totals” and series trends.
PHILADELPHIA at CINCINNATI...Andy Reid 4-1 vs. line last 5 as
road chalk. Marvin Lewis 10-20-1 vs. number last 31 at Paul Brown
Stadium. Tech edge-Eagles, based on team trends.
NEW ORLEANS at KANSAS CITY...Saints yet to be road chalk TY
but were 4-1 vs. line in role the past two seasons. Saints also “over”
10-4 last 14 away from home. Chiefs also “over” 8-4 last 12 at
Arrowhead. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Saints, based on
“totals” and team trends.
DETROIT at CAROLINA...Panthers 3-0-2 vs. line as host TY (the
same as chalk mark TY), now 6-0-2 against number last 8 at
Charlotte! Carolina also “under” 9-3-1 last 13 as host, but Lions “over”
10-4 last 14 away. Tech edge-Panthers, based on recent home
mark.
MINNESOTA at TAMPA BAY...Bucs no covers last 3 TY but still 9-
4 vs. line at Raymond James Stadium since LY (3-1 TY). Vikes “over”
first 4 on road TY. Tech edge-"Over' and slight to Bucs, based on
team and “totals” trends.
ST. LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO...49ers had covered 6 straight in
series before failing to do so in last ‘07 meeting. Last 4 and 7 of last
9 meetings “under” as well. Tech edge-slight to “under” and 49ers,
based on “totals” and series trends.
ARIZONA at SEATTLE...“Overs” 7-1 last 8 in series. Seattle “over”
8-4 last 11 on board. Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.
SAN DIEGO at PITTSBURGH...Bolts 7-2-1 as dog since ‘05, but
Norv 1-4 vs. line away from home TY. Bolts “over” 16-7 last 23 away,
Steel “over” 44-15-1 last 60 at Heinz Field! Tech edge-“Over” and
Steelers, based on “totals” and team trends
DALLAS at WASHINGTON... Cowboys 1-5 vs. line last 6 TY and
just 1-3 last 4 as dog (0-1 TY). Cowboys have also lost last 2 and
failed to cover last 4 and 6 of last 7 against Skins. Skins “under” last
3 at home TY and “under” 5-2-1 for Zorn in ‘08. Tech edge-
Redskins and slight to “under”, based on team, series, and
“totals” trends.
CLEVELAND at BUFFALO (Monday, November 17)...Romeo has
covered his last 3 as visitor TY. Bills no covers 4 of last 5 TY. Tech
edge-Browns, based on recent trends
NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-DENVER over Atlanta, GREEN BAY*
over Chicago, JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee.
FAMILIARITY-JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee, GREEN BAY#
over Chicago, WASHINGTON# over Dallas.
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-No plays this week.
NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets (11/13).
SCORE 40 LETDOWN-NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets (11/13), NY
GIANTS over Baltimore.
*-If underdog. #-If dog, pick, or 1-point favorite. @-May conflict with
other tech system(s). For preferred TGS EXTRA!!! recommendation,
consult Technician’s Corner and/or Tech Plays of Week. Line moves
after Sunday night can alter selections in certain systems
POWER PLAYS
4★ FALCONS 31 BRONCOS 19
(DEN #2 vs ATL #23 ATL #7 vs DEN #29) DEN has extra rest & will get CB Bailey back but are down to
their 6th & 7th string RB’s here. ATL is the real deal with a 6-3 record & QB Ryan is playing like a 4 year
vet. PP likes Cutler to have another good game here but ATL has a big edge with their #2 rush off vs
DEN’s #27 rush def & it shows with a 178-95 edge on the ground. ATL is much healthier, which helps
their big special teams edge here & the home team is the play here
3★ COLTS 35 TEXANS 19
(HOU #4 vs IND #15 IND #22 vs HOU #19) IND is improving with big B2B wins to stay in the Wildcard
hunt vs div leaders & now take on a HOU team with a QB that has 7 TO’s in his L11 Qtrs. HOU gave up 22
4Q pts vs BAL LW & only had 7 plays in BAL territory in the 2H with 6 coming in garbage time. PP gives
IND a 390-291 edge & vs a HOU team that is on a 2-9 ATS road streak the Colts are the play.
3★ CARDINALS 29 SEAHAWKS 19
(ARZ #3 vs SEA #27 SEA #30 vs ARZ #13) ARZ is off LW’s MNF game vs SF & if they won then a victory
here all but locks up the sorry NFC West. SEA expects QB Hasselbeck & WR Branch to return but he’s been
out 5 Wks & he long ago admitted ARZ’s “Steeler West” defense is the hardest for him to deal with. SEA
got a late cover vs MIA LW as they took advantage of their overaggressive def. PP gives ARZ a 447-269
yd edge with a good spec teams edge but not having a fi rm line keeps this from being stronger.
2★ DOLPHINS 25 RAIDERS 10
(OAK #29 vs MIA #18 MIA #8 vs OAK #25) OAK is avg just 7 ppg & 228 ypg since Davis made the mistake
of fi ring Lane Kiffi n. They now have to travel to a MIA team that allowed a late cover to a depleted SEA
team LW as MIA gave up a pick-6 up 14-0. MIA is in the middle of a 3 game homestand & has NE on
deck while has 3 div games on deck with DEN starting it off. PP gives MIA a 339-253 yd edge but MIA is
4-20 ATS as a HF & DD favs 2-12 ATS TY keeping this from being a stronger play.
2★ RAVENS 22 (+) GIANTS 23
(BAL #16 vs NYG #3 NYG #5 vs BAL #2) PP simply doesn’t give the 6-3 Ravens any credit but their 4
game win streak is vs foes a combined .361. The Giants are off 2 div rivals & a brutally physical game vs
PIT & PP forecasts a big 328-186 yd edge here. This is a fl at spot for the Giants as they have road games
vs ARZ & WAS. PP likes BAL to keep it within the line here which is good enough for a small play
4★ FALCONS 31 BRONCOS 19
(DEN #2 vs ATL #23 ATL #7 vs DEN #29) DEN has extra rest & will get CB Bailey back but are down to
their 6th & 7th string RB’s here. ATL is the real deal with a 6-3 record & QB Ryan is playing like a 4 year
vet. PP likes Cutler to have another good game here but ATL has a big edge with their #2 rush off vs
DEN’s #27 rush def & it shows with a 178-95 edge on the ground. ATL is much healthier, which helps
their big special teams edge here & the home team is the play here
3★ COLTS 35 TEXANS 19
(HOU #4 vs IND #15 IND #22 vs HOU #19) IND is improving with big B2B wins to stay in the Wildcard
hunt vs div leaders & now take on a HOU team with a QB that has 7 TO’s in his L11 Qtrs. HOU gave up 22
4Q pts vs BAL LW & only had 7 plays in BAL territory in the 2H with 6 coming in garbage time. PP gives
IND a 390-291 edge & vs a HOU team that is on a 2-9 ATS road streak the Colts are the play.
3★ CARDINALS 29 SEAHAWKS 19
(ARZ #3 vs SEA #27 SEA #30 vs ARZ #13) ARZ is off LW’s MNF game vs SF & if they won then a victory
here all but locks up the sorry NFC West. SEA expects QB Hasselbeck & WR Branch to return but he’s been
out 5 Wks & he long ago admitted ARZ’s “Steeler West” defense is the hardest for him to deal with. SEA
got a late cover vs MIA LW as they took advantage of their overaggressive def. PP gives ARZ a 447-269
yd edge with a good spec teams edge but not having a fi rm line keeps this from being stronger.
2★ DOLPHINS 25 RAIDERS 10
(OAK #29 vs MIA #18 MIA #8 vs OAK #25) OAK is avg just 7 ppg & 228 ypg since Davis made the mistake
of fi ring Lane Kiffi n. They now have to travel to a MIA team that allowed a late cover to a depleted SEA
team LW as MIA gave up a pick-6 up 14-0. MIA is in the middle of a 3 game homestand & has NE on
deck while has 3 div games on deck with DEN starting it off. PP gives MIA a 339-253 yd edge but MIA is
4-20 ATS as a HF & DD favs 2-12 ATS TY keeping this from being a stronger play.
2★ RAVENS 22 (+) GIANTS 23
(BAL #16 vs NYG #3 NYG #5 vs BAL #2) PP simply doesn’t give the 6-3 Ravens any credit but their 4
game win streak is vs foes a combined .361. The Giants are off 2 div rivals & a brutally physical game vs
PIT & PP forecasts a big 328-186 yd edge here. This is a fl at spot for the Giants as they have road games
vs ARZ & WAS. PP likes BAL to keep it within the line here which is good enough for a small play
<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">POWER SWEEP
PRO ANGLES
(4) Angle Plays 28-9 76% L/4Y!
(4) ATLANTA
(3) TENNESSEE
(3) CAROLINA
(3) TAMPA BAY
System Play 10-1
Go against any road team off a Thursday road game that scored 24 or more.
1994-2008: 11-2 85%
THIS WEEK'S PLAY:
AGAINST: DENVER PLAY: ATLANTA
KEY SELECTIONS
4* Tennessee over JACKSONVILLE -
The Titans set the tone for the Jags season with a 17-10 win as a 3 pt HD in Wk 1. TEN had a 309-189 yd edge in the game but the TEN defense dominated with 7 sacks, 2 int & a fumble while holding JAX to 33 yds (1.9) rushing. JAX is 9-2 ATS as a HD but 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS at home TY. LY JAX went 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS at home with an avg 364-326 yd edge (+4 TO’s) winning by a 24-16 score. TY they have been outgained 353-303 (-1 TO’s) losing by an avg score of 24-21. TEN has outgained foes 316-254 on the road (+1 TO’s) with a 23-10 avg score. After not passing for 200 yds 1st 8 games TEN was forced to adapt to a CHI defense that held TEN to just 20 yds rushing (0.7). Collins surgically took apart CHI with 289 yds passing (73%) with a 2-0 ratio. JAX is off a “get right win” vs DET where they scored on 6 of their 1st 7 drives with a 384-256 yd edge. Garrard goes from the #29 pass def to TEN #12 pass def that has a 5-14 ratio. TEN has won four 4H Key Selections for us here & they continue to impress with their adaptability & physicality taking on all comers. FORECAST: Tennessee 28 JACKSONVILLE 13
3* ATLANTA over Denver - DEN overcame a 13 pt deficit late in the 3Q vs CLE on a short week LW to score 24 pts for the win. They do expect to get CB Bailey back but will still be without FS McCree & WLB Williams here. Despite rushing for 123 yds (4.4) LW DEN is down to their 6th & 7th string RB’s. Cutler essentially beat CLE by himself with 447 yds passing (57%) with a 3-1 ratio. DEN is 1-4 ATS in domes & 2-8 ATS vs the NFC. ATL is 12-4 ATS vs the AFC (2-0 TY). DEN has the #10 & #28 units (-8 TO’s) the L4W vs ATL #5 & #23 units (+2 TO’s). This is a tough matchup for DEN’s #27 rush defense (146 ypg 5.1) vs ATL’s #2 rush offense (173 ypg 4.8) at home. DEN’s #28 pass defense is as bad as advertised with a 70% comp rate & 14-3 ratio (7.6 ypa). ATL has done very well vs def ranked in the bottom half going 6-0 SU & ATS with a 402-329 yd edge & 30-17 avg score. DEN isn’t as good as their 5-4 record shows & while Cutler should have a good day here vs a below avg ATL pass defense (#23) we’ll side with ATL as they have proven they are the real deal under HC Mike Smith who is a legit Coach of the Year candidate. FORECAST: ATLANTA 37 Denver 24
2* PITTSBURGH over San Diego - SD beat PIT 23-13 in the last meeting in 2006 as a 3.5 pt HF. SD is 1-7 ATS away vs a non-div foe with Turner. PIT is 2-6 ATS as a HF. The Steelers were very depleted LW vs IND as they were without LT Smith, CB McFadden, Roethlisberger played with a bad throwing hand & shoulder & RB Parker (shoulder) may be headed to the IR. They played a quality game vs an improving team LW but Steelerball backfired on them as after grinding out a 14 play drive that took up 8:27 & forcing IND to go 3 & out, Roethlisberger threw an int to give IND the ball on the PIT 32 which Manning converted into a TD. PIT then simply ran out of time as they got to the IND 27. SD was 100% coming out of the bye health-wise but struggled vs a very young KC team. SD let KC get a 13-6 lead in the 1H & Tomlinson only had 35 yds rushing (3.5). SD had 4 drives inside the KC 35 in the 1H but came away with a punt, 2 FG & an int. The “revamped” defense under Rivera allowed KC to convert 7 of 14 on 3rd Dn, only had 1 sack & allowed Thigpen to hit 8 passes of 11+ yds. SD is very disappointing, coming cross country (West Coast teams 0-12 SU & 3-8-1 ATS) & facing an angry PIT team that needs a win to stay ahead of the surprising Ravens in the AFC North. FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 28 San Diego 17
2* CAROLINA over Detroit - This is a bit of a flat spot for CAR who are off a long round trip to OAK & they have road games vs ATL & GB on deck. DET made a desperate move LW starting Culpepper on 4 days of practice vs JAX despite his not having taken a snap in 9 months prior. He finished with 104 yds (50%) with a 0-1 ratio & DET took him out of red-zone packages to keep him from being overwhelmed. Drew Stanton played & had 94 yds passing (75%) & a TD but was sacked 5 times. DET is 5-0 ATS as a DD dog under Marinelli. CAR is 5-0 SU & 3-0-2 ATS at home TY with the #9 & #9 home units (+5 TO’s) who have outgained foes 349-284 vs DET’s #24 & #28 road units (-1 TO’s) who have been outgained 392-284. CAR wasn’t very sharp coming out of their bye LW as Delhomme was very ugly LW with 72 yds (26%) a 1-4 ratio & woeful 2.7 ypa. CAR was saved by a good overall defensive effort & monster game by DE Peppers (7 tackles 3 sacks 3 tfl & 2 FF) that held OAK to just 2 of 17 (12%) on 3rd Dns & forced OAK to play #3 QB Tuiasosopo. DET is a fragile team who wilts when the game gets out of hand & look for CAR to regroup off a poor effort & quickly put the game out of reach here.
FORECAST: CAROLINA 27 Detroit 7
OTHER GAMES
NY Jets at NEW ENGLAND - Thursday - NE beat the Jets 19-10 as a 1 pt AD in Wk 2 after losing QB Brady for the year moving to 9-3-1 ATS in the series. NE kept the gameplan vanilla for Cassel who had 165 yds passing (70%) with a 0-0 ratio & ran the ball 33 times (3.2). The yardage was basically even with the key moment coming in the 3Q when Favre forced an int which setup a 31 yd drive for TD. Mangini poured it on STL LW to create momentum here while NE played a solid ball control game to beat BUF LW. With both teams tied for the AFC East it’s a shame most of the US won’t be able to see it.
MIAMI 24 Oakland 6 - OAK beat MIA 35-17 as a 4 pt AD LY in a revenge game for former MIA QB Culpepper & with :30 left instead of taking a knee to run out the clock OAK ran it in to pile on. OAK had a 369-278 yd & 10:06 TOP edge with 299 yds rushing (6.1). West Coast teams (ARZ, OAK, SD, SF, SEA) are 0-12 SU & 3-8-1 ATS in EST games TY. Prior to the bye OAK had only been outgained an avg 326-311 with an avg score of 25-20. Russell was being brought along slowly & deliberately & avg’d 167 ypg (55%) with a 4-1 ratio. Since then OAK has been outgained 381-228 with an avg score of 23-7 & Russell (knee tendinitis) was kept out of LW’s game for his health mentally & physically. OAK has the #28 & #21 units (+0 TO’s) on the road being outgained 346-266 vs MIA #9 & #11 home units (+2 TO’s) which avg 349-298. MIA learned a valuable lesson LW with a Pennington int with MIA up 14-0 giving SEA a spark which let them back into the game. MIA still has major edges at QB, RB, a better defense with the #9 pass rush & are a team clearly with a sense of direction unlike OAK.
NY GIANTS 24 Baltimore 23 - The Giants are off LW’s SNF game vs PHI & have a pair of road games vs ARZ & WAS on deck. This is the 5th road game in 6 Wks & 3rd in a row for BAL. BAL shifts from a timing oriented passing attack to a balanced offense that can play power football (163 ypg 5.2) with an elite QB that minus the CLE game has avg’d 220 ypg (61%) with an 11-2 ratio (94.4 QBR). Over the L4W BAL has the #8 & #11 units (+6 TO’s) vs the Giants #19 & #6 units (+5 TO’s). BAL is 12-6 ATS vs the NFC. The Giants are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home TY thanks due the #4 & #3 home units (+7 TO’s) which have avg’d 375-236. BAL showed it can handle a high octane pass attack by holding HOU to just 13 pts & forcing 4 ints which were converted into 14 pts. They outrushed HOU 162 (4.1) to 75 (4.7) & have gone 28 games without allowing a 100 yd rusher. Non-div road teams that scored 40 or more on the road are 14-3 ATS since 1989. Despite a 6-3 record BAL is still an underrated team due to Flacco at the helm. However, with a 5-2 ATS record as a dog vs a Giants team off 2 tough games in 3 wks we’ll take the dog here.
INDIANAPOLIS 34 Houston 24 - The Colts beat the Texans 31-27 as a 3.5 pt AF in the 1st meeting TY. HOU was up 27-10 mid-4Q but Rosenfels lost 2 fumbles which IND converted into 14 pts & an int on HOU final drive to lose the game. IND avg 69.2 ypg rushing (3.3) TY which is 2nd lowest in franchise history (68.9 ypg in 1992) & 4th lowest in the NFL since 1970. Of the 38 teams that finished last in rushing just 2 have reached the playoffs. HOU is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS as a div dog being outscored 33-20 on avg. PIT, TEN, JAX, MIN & BAL are the common foes here with HOU going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS losing by an avg score of 34-18. IND is 3-2 SU & ATS with an avg score of 23-18. The difference has been pass defense with HOU allowing 183 ypg (65%) with a 10-2 ratio vs IND’s 201 ypg (69%) with an 0-7 ratio in these games. IND is beat up in the secondary with #1 CB Jackson (MCL) on IR & CB Hayden (hamstring) is iffy here but they have gotten solid play from FS Sanders the L2W. Rosenfels puts up good numbers for fantasy but has 7 TO’s in 11Q’s & with IND getting confidence building wins vs NE & PIT we’ll take the home team & the momentum here.
GREEN BAY 27 Chicago 23 - The Bears are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS vs GB with a 23-13 avg score. CHI swept GB LY despite being outgained in both games by 154 & 34 yds due to +6 TO’s. CHI is 2-10 ATS with Grossman starting but Orton has a shot to return as he has a low ankle sprain instead of a high which would have him out 4 games min. Grossman is 3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS vs GB but has only passed for 148 ypg (52%) with a 3-6 ratio. GB is 8-3-1 ATS at home. GB has the #23 & #9 units (+4 TO’s) vs CHI #18 & #25 units (+5 TO’s) the L4W. GB is off a very misleading 1 point loss as they converted 3 int into 17 pts & had a 65 yd PR for a TD. GB was outgained 361-184 & lost the TOP battle by 10:10. CHI’s defense did a great job vs the run holding TEN to 20 yds (0.7) but their lack of a pass rush (#27 sacks L4W) cost them as they gave up 284 yds passing (73%) & 2 TD’s. Grossman (173 yds 54% 1-1 LW) led CHI to a 14 play 75 yd opening drive but CHI punted on their next 8 drives (64 yds) & had a FG blocked before a 68 yd drive for a TD to make it respectable. Both teams are off close losses & while GB has the home edge HC Smith made it his primary mission to beat GB when he took over so an outright upset wouldn’t be a surprise.
Philadelphia 30 CINCINNATI 20 - This is a flat spot for PHI who is off a big win vs ATL to regain their bearings, a long trip to SEA, a huge SNF game vs NYG & has a road game vs geographical rival BAL on deck. They get a CIN team that finally got on the winning track vs JAX before the bye. CIN is 0-4 SU & ATS after a bye. Home teams that won by 3 or less as a dog before their bye are 3-9 ATS when they return. PHI has all the edges being 9-3 ATS as a fav of 9 or more, having the #6 & 5 units (+6 TO’s) vs CIN #32 & #21 units (-7 TO’s) that is 29th & 31st in sacks allowed & sacks by, have a massive edge at QB with McNabb (92.0 QBR prior to SNF) vs Fitzpatrick (66.6 QBR). However, non-div HT’s off a bye are 7-3 ATS TY, fav’s of 9.5+ are 4-14 ATS TY. CIN is 4-0 ATS as a DD dog under HC Lewis & while PHI should win the game but the situation allows CIN to keep it close to the number.
New Orleans 34 KANSAS CITY 27 - This is a flat spot for NO who came in off their bye week with a poor game vs ATL & have a MNF home game vs GB & a road game vs TB on deck. KC is off a winnable game vs NYJ, blew a 21 pt lead vs TB in OT & lost to SD by 1 pt. NO is 8-4 ATS as an AF. The Saints are now on the outside looking in for their playoff hopes as Brees had his first 3 int game since Wk 3 vs TEN LY. NO simply couldn’t get a consistent effort out of the RB’s (65 4.6) but they do plan on getting RB Bush (94 ypg from scrimmage 5.1) back here. NO’s besieged #27 pass defense (14-6 ratio) lost CB McKenzie to a broken right kneecap. Thigpen has avg’d 237 ypg (65%) with a 6-0 ratio the L3W vs NYJ’s #21, TB’s #6 & SD’s #32 pass defenses. KC was without 4 defensive starters (LB Johnson, DE McBride, CB Surtain) LW & may have lost another 3 vs SD. They rallied vs SD after letting a 13-6 lead in the 1H slip away & were a 2 pt conversion at the end from winning the game. Home teams that lost by 3 or less as DD AD’s are 8-25 ATS. Compound that with their 2 previous losses vs a NO team that was shown up by a rookie QB in ATL & we’ll take road team by a TD in a higher scoring game here.
TAMPA BAY 20 Minnesota 13 - This is the 1st meeting since 2005 for these old NFC North foes. This is the 1st of B2B road trips to Florida for the Vikings. MIN is 9-18-1 ATS as a non-div AD. TB is 12-6-1 ATS as a non-div HF. TB needed the bye to get its running game healed as RB Dunn (back) sat out vs KC & RB Graham has split time at FB due to injuries to Askew (hamstring) & Cook. TB is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home TY with a 339-218 yd edge & 25-11 avg score. TB has held foes to just 69 yds rushing (3.4) forcing them into 3rd & long (30%) giving TB a 3-9 ratio at home TY. MIN’s defense came up big LW vs GB holding them to 1 of 11 on 3rd Dns, sacking Rogers 4 times & forcing 2 safeties. They had a 361-184 yd edge but RB Peterson had the late game winning TD & MIN has outrushed foes 172 (4.9) to 72 (3.6) the L4W. While MIN is off a good defensive effort, TB has a better defense, QB Garcia will have another week to work with an improving set of skill players & we’ll side with the home team here in a lower scoring game.
SAN FRANCISCO 21 St Louis 14 - This is the latest the initial game has been between these division foes since 1990. Martz gets another crack at his former team as he lost to STL 41-34 in 2006 5.5 AD with DET. He does harbor grudges as SF beat DET 31-13 as a 5 pt HF TY with 370-240 yd edge. STL beat SF 13-9 as a 3 pt AF LY to snap a 6 game ATS losing streak. SF is off LW’s MNF game vs ARZ & its unknown how the switch to Shaun Hill went. In their 6 game losing streak prior to MNF SF had only won the yardage battle in 1 game (SEA), being outgained 352-292, allowing a 9-4 ratio with 6 sacks (5 vs NE in 2nd West Coast game). STL was humiliated LW down 40-0 at the half giving the Jets 15-5 FD & 248-88 yd edges. STL pulled Bulger in the 3Q after he had 65 yds (46%) with an int. STL has not won the TOP battle in any game TY & have been outrushed 157 (5.0) to 97 (3.8) since Haslett took over. Neither team is particularly attractive as after his first 2 games vs WAS & DAL STL is 0-3 & their flaws are resurfacing. SF is an unknown as we are anxious to see if Singletary can force Martz to be more conventional but we’ll side with the home team by a TD as we want to see their play on MNF.
Arizona 30 SEATTLE 20 - This is the 3rd straight division game for ARZ & they are off LW’s MNF game vs SF. SEA just made the longest roundtrip possible in the NFL (5469 miles) in their 21-19 loss to MIA. SEA is 4-1 ATS hosting ARZ & 6-0 ATS as a div dog. After coming in as the Div favorite SEA is now 2-7 but even more surprising just 1-3 SU & ATS at home. They’ve now played 5 games without QB Hasselbeck & they’ve avg’d just 229 ypg vs 337 ypg in the 3 full games he played. He took snaps with the scout team LW & should be back here along with WR Branch (heel). ARZ offense continues to improve behind the rejuvenated Warner (302 ypg 73% 8-2 ratio since Jets) & they’ve shown they can be productive on the road avg 468 ypg & 31 ppg the L3 away. ARZ #3 offense should continue that same success vs the #31 pass defense of SEA (14-4 ratio). While SEA has not been a division HD since 2002 the Cardinals have the better offense, defense & catch Hasselback in his first live action in over a month.
Dallas at WASHINGTON - DAL desperately needed the bye to regroup & will be rewarded with QB Romo, RB Jones, LG Kosier & CB Newman all returning to the field here. WAS is hoping to get DE Taylor (calf) back & signed former OAK CB Hall over the bye. WAS was manhandled by PIT on MNF before the bye & NFL leading rusher Portis was held to just 51 yds (3.9). WAS came into DAL in the 1st meeting & beat them 26-24 as a 10’ pt AD. WAS outrushed DAL 161 (4.4) to 44 (4.0) & had a 17:18 TOP edge. Even though most of the pregame hype will be on the QB’s this game will come down to who has the better run game here.
Cleveland at BUFFALO - Brady Quinn became the 11th starting QB for CLE in the 10 years since their return. While he had 239 yds (66%) with a 2-0 ratio he only had 3 passes of 10 or more yds. For the 2nd week in a row CLE’s #27 defense let a big lead slip away for the loss. BUF was riding high with a 5-1 record after beating SD but has lost 3 straight div games. Quinn gets another favorable matchup as BUF’s defense which will likely be without 3 starters & the team has extra rest. BUF gave DAL a huge scare in their 1st MNF game in 13 years LY on MNF and are desperate after 3 straight division losses
3* Totals
3★ Eagles/Bengals Over 47*
3★ Texans/Colts Over 49
3★ Rams/49ers Under 44*
2★ Broncos/Falcons Over 50
2★ Vikings/Bucs Under 40
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PRO ANGLES
(4) Angle Plays 28-9 76% L/4Y!
(4) ATLANTA
(3) TENNESSEE
(3) CAROLINA
(3) TAMPA BAY
System Play 10-1
Go against any road team off a Thursday road game that scored 24 or more.
1994-2008: 11-2 85%
THIS WEEK'S PLAY:
AGAINST: DENVER PLAY: ATLANTA
KEY SELECTIONS
4* Tennessee over JACKSONVILLE -
The Titans set the tone for the Jags season with a 17-10 win as a 3 pt HD in Wk 1. TEN had a 309-189 yd edge in the game but the TEN defense dominated with 7 sacks, 2 int & a fumble while holding JAX to 33 yds (1.9) rushing. JAX is 9-2 ATS as a HD but 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS at home TY. LY JAX went 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS at home with an avg 364-326 yd edge (+4 TO’s) winning by a 24-16 score. TY they have been outgained 353-303 (-1 TO’s) losing by an avg score of 24-21. TEN has outgained foes 316-254 on the road (+1 TO’s) with a 23-10 avg score. After not passing for 200 yds 1st 8 games TEN was forced to adapt to a CHI defense that held TEN to just 20 yds rushing (0.7). Collins surgically took apart CHI with 289 yds passing (73%) with a 2-0 ratio. JAX is off a “get right win” vs DET where they scored on 6 of their 1st 7 drives with a 384-256 yd edge. Garrard goes from the #29 pass def to TEN #12 pass def that has a 5-14 ratio. TEN has won four 4H Key Selections for us here & they continue to impress with their adaptability & physicality taking on all comers. FORECAST: Tennessee 28 JACKSONVILLE 13
3* ATLANTA over Denver - DEN overcame a 13 pt deficit late in the 3Q vs CLE on a short week LW to score 24 pts for the win. They do expect to get CB Bailey back but will still be without FS McCree & WLB Williams here. Despite rushing for 123 yds (4.4) LW DEN is down to their 6th & 7th string RB’s. Cutler essentially beat CLE by himself with 447 yds passing (57%) with a 3-1 ratio. DEN is 1-4 ATS in domes & 2-8 ATS vs the NFC. ATL is 12-4 ATS vs the AFC (2-0 TY). DEN has the #10 & #28 units (-8 TO’s) the L4W vs ATL #5 & #23 units (+2 TO’s). This is a tough matchup for DEN’s #27 rush defense (146 ypg 5.1) vs ATL’s #2 rush offense (173 ypg 4.8) at home. DEN’s #28 pass defense is as bad as advertised with a 70% comp rate & 14-3 ratio (7.6 ypa). ATL has done very well vs def ranked in the bottom half going 6-0 SU & ATS with a 402-329 yd edge & 30-17 avg score. DEN isn’t as good as their 5-4 record shows & while Cutler should have a good day here vs a below avg ATL pass defense (#23) we’ll side with ATL as they have proven they are the real deal under HC Mike Smith who is a legit Coach of the Year candidate. FORECAST: ATLANTA 37 Denver 24
2* PITTSBURGH over San Diego - SD beat PIT 23-13 in the last meeting in 2006 as a 3.5 pt HF. SD is 1-7 ATS away vs a non-div foe with Turner. PIT is 2-6 ATS as a HF. The Steelers were very depleted LW vs IND as they were without LT Smith, CB McFadden, Roethlisberger played with a bad throwing hand & shoulder & RB Parker (shoulder) may be headed to the IR. They played a quality game vs an improving team LW but Steelerball backfired on them as after grinding out a 14 play drive that took up 8:27 & forcing IND to go 3 & out, Roethlisberger threw an int to give IND the ball on the PIT 32 which Manning converted into a TD. PIT then simply ran out of time as they got to the IND 27. SD was 100% coming out of the bye health-wise but struggled vs a very young KC team. SD let KC get a 13-6 lead in the 1H & Tomlinson only had 35 yds rushing (3.5). SD had 4 drives inside the KC 35 in the 1H but came away with a punt, 2 FG & an int. The “revamped” defense under Rivera allowed KC to convert 7 of 14 on 3rd Dn, only had 1 sack & allowed Thigpen to hit 8 passes of 11+ yds. SD is very disappointing, coming cross country (West Coast teams 0-12 SU & 3-8-1 ATS) & facing an angry PIT team that needs a win to stay ahead of the surprising Ravens in the AFC North. FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 28 San Diego 17
2* CAROLINA over Detroit - This is a bit of a flat spot for CAR who are off a long round trip to OAK & they have road games vs ATL & GB on deck. DET made a desperate move LW starting Culpepper on 4 days of practice vs JAX despite his not having taken a snap in 9 months prior. He finished with 104 yds (50%) with a 0-1 ratio & DET took him out of red-zone packages to keep him from being overwhelmed. Drew Stanton played & had 94 yds passing (75%) & a TD but was sacked 5 times. DET is 5-0 ATS as a DD dog under Marinelli. CAR is 5-0 SU & 3-0-2 ATS at home TY with the #9 & #9 home units (+5 TO’s) who have outgained foes 349-284 vs DET’s #24 & #28 road units (-1 TO’s) who have been outgained 392-284. CAR wasn’t very sharp coming out of their bye LW as Delhomme was very ugly LW with 72 yds (26%) a 1-4 ratio & woeful 2.7 ypa. CAR was saved by a good overall defensive effort & monster game by DE Peppers (7 tackles 3 sacks 3 tfl & 2 FF) that held OAK to just 2 of 17 (12%) on 3rd Dns & forced OAK to play #3 QB Tuiasosopo. DET is a fragile team who wilts when the game gets out of hand & look for CAR to regroup off a poor effort & quickly put the game out of reach here.
FORECAST: CAROLINA 27 Detroit 7
OTHER GAMES
NY Jets at NEW ENGLAND - Thursday - NE beat the Jets 19-10 as a 1 pt AD in Wk 2 after losing QB Brady for the year moving to 9-3-1 ATS in the series. NE kept the gameplan vanilla for Cassel who had 165 yds passing (70%) with a 0-0 ratio & ran the ball 33 times (3.2). The yardage was basically even with the key moment coming in the 3Q when Favre forced an int which setup a 31 yd drive for TD. Mangini poured it on STL LW to create momentum here while NE played a solid ball control game to beat BUF LW. With both teams tied for the AFC East it’s a shame most of the US won’t be able to see it.
MIAMI 24 Oakland 6 - OAK beat MIA 35-17 as a 4 pt AD LY in a revenge game for former MIA QB Culpepper & with :30 left instead of taking a knee to run out the clock OAK ran it in to pile on. OAK had a 369-278 yd & 10:06 TOP edge with 299 yds rushing (6.1). West Coast teams (ARZ, OAK, SD, SF, SEA) are 0-12 SU & 3-8-1 ATS in EST games TY. Prior to the bye OAK had only been outgained an avg 326-311 with an avg score of 25-20. Russell was being brought along slowly & deliberately & avg’d 167 ypg (55%) with a 4-1 ratio. Since then OAK has been outgained 381-228 with an avg score of 23-7 & Russell (knee tendinitis) was kept out of LW’s game for his health mentally & physically. OAK has the #28 & #21 units (+0 TO’s) on the road being outgained 346-266 vs MIA #9 & #11 home units (+2 TO’s) which avg 349-298. MIA learned a valuable lesson LW with a Pennington int with MIA up 14-0 giving SEA a spark which let them back into the game. MIA still has major edges at QB, RB, a better defense with the #9 pass rush & are a team clearly with a sense of direction unlike OAK.
NY GIANTS 24 Baltimore 23 - The Giants are off LW’s SNF game vs PHI & have a pair of road games vs ARZ & WAS on deck. This is the 5th road game in 6 Wks & 3rd in a row for BAL. BAL shifts from a timing oriented passing attack to a balanced offense that can play power football (163 ypg 5.2) with an elite QB that minus the CLE game has avg’d 220 ypg (61%) with an 11-2 ratio (94.4 QBR). Over the L4W BAL has the #8 & #11 units (+6 TO’s) vs the Giants #19 & #6 units (+5 TO’s). BAL is 12-6 ATS vs the NFC. The Giants are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home TY thanks due the #4 & #3 home units (+7 TO’s) which have avg’d 375-236. BAL showed it can handle a high octane pass attack by holding HOU to just 13 pts & forcing 4 ints which were converted into 14 pts. They outrushed HOU 162 (4.1) to 75 (4.7) & have gone 28 games without allowing a 100 yd rusher. Non-div road teams that scored 40 or more on the road are 14-3 ATS since 1989. Despite a 6-3 record BAL is still an underrated team due to Flacco at the helm. However, with a 5-2 ATS record as a dog vs a Giants team off 2 tough games in 3 wks we’ll take the dog here.
INDIANAPOLIS 34 Houston 24 - The Colts beat the Texans 31-27 as a 3.5 pt AF in the 1st meeting TY. HOU was up 27-10 mid-4Q but Rosenfels lost 2 fumbles which IND converted into 14 pts & an int on HOU final drive to lose the game. IND avg 69.2 ypg rushing (3.3) TY which is 2nd lowest in franchise history (68.9 ypg in 1992) & 4th lowest in the NFL since 1970. Of the 38 teams that finished last in rushing just 2 have reached the playoffs. HOU is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS as a div dog being outscored 33-20 on avg. PIT, TEN, JAX, MIN & BAL are the common foes here with HOU going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS losing by an avg score of 34-18. IND is 3-2 SU & ATS with an avg score of 23-18. The difference has been pass defense with HOU allowing 183 ypg (65%) with a 10-2 ratio vs IND’s 201 ypg (69%) with an 0-7 ratio in these games. IND is beat up in the secondary with #1 CB Jackson (MCL) on IR & CB Hayden (hamstring) is iffy here but they have gotten solid play from FS Sanders the L2W. Rosenfels puts up good numbers for fantasy but has 7 TO’s in 11Q’s & with IND getting confidence building wins vs NE & PIT we’ll take the home team & the momentum here.
GREEN BAY 27 Chicago 23 - The Bears are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS vs GB with a 23-13 avg score. CHI swept GB LY despite being outgained in both games by 154 & 34 yds due to +6 TO’s. CHI is 2-10 ATS with Grossman starting but Orton has a shot to return as he has a low ankle sprain instead of a high which would have him out 4 games min. Grossman is 3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS vs GB but has only passed for 148 ypg (52%) with a 3-6 ratio. GB is 8-3-1 ATS at home. GB has the #23 & #9 units (+4 TO’s) vs CHI #18 & #25 units (+5 TO’s) the L4W. GB is off a very misleading 1 point loss as they converted 3 int into 17 pts & had a 65 yd PR for a TD. GB was outgained 361-184 & lost the TOP battle by 10:10. CHI’s defense did a great job vs the run holding TEN to 20 yds (0.7) but their lack of a pass rush (#27 sacks L4W) cost them as they gave up 284 yds passing (73%) & 2 TD’s. Grossman (173 yds 54% 1-1 LW) led CHI to a 14 play 75 yd opening drive but CHI punted on their next 8 drives (64 yds) & had a FG blocked before a 68 yd drive for a TD to make it respectable. Both teams are off close losses & while GB has the home edge HC Smith made it his primary mission to beat GB when he took over so an outright upset wouldn’t be a surprise.
Philadelphia 30 CINCINNATI 20 - This is a flat spot for PHI who is off a big win vs ATL to regain their bearings, a long trip to SEA, a huge SNF game vs NYG & has a road game vs geographical rival BAL on deck. They get a CIN team that finally got on the winning track vs JAX before the bye. CIN is 0-4 SU & ATS after a bye. Home teams that won by 3 or less as a dog before their bye are 3-9 ATS when they return. PHI has all the edges being 9-3 ATS as a fav of 9 or more, having the #6 & 5 units (+6 TO’s) vs CIN #32 & #21 units (-7 TO’s) that is 29th & 31st in sacks allowed & sacks by, have a massive edge at QB with McNabb (92.0 QBR prior to SNF) vs Fitzpatrick (66.6 QBR). However, non-div HT’s off a bye are 7-3 ATS TY, fav’s of 9.5+ are 4-14 ATS TY. CIN is 4-0 ATS as a DD dog under HC Lewis & while PHI should win the game but the situation allows CIN to keep it close to the number.
New Orleans 34 KANSAS CITY 27 - This is a flat spot for NO who came in off their bye week with a poor game vs ATL & have a MNF home game vs GB & a road game vs TB on deck. KC is off a winnable game vs NYJ, blew a 21 pt lead vs TB in OT & lost to SD by 1 pt. NO is 8-4 ATS as an AF. The Saints are now on the outside looking in for their playoff hopes as Brees had his first 3 int game since Wk 3 vs TEN LY. NO simply couldn’t get a consistent effort out of the RB’s (65 4.6) but they do plan on getting RB Bush (94 ypg from scrimmage 5.1) back here. NO’s besieged #27 pass defense (14-6 ratio) lost CB McKenzie to a broken right kneecap. Thigpen has avg’d 237 ypg (65%) with a 6-0 ratio the L3W vs NYJ’s #21, TB’s #6 & SD’s #32 pass defenses. KC was without 4 defensive starters (LB Johnson, DE McBride, CB Surtain) LW & may have lost another 3 vs SD. They rallied vs SD after letting a 13-6 lead in the 1H slip away & were a 2 pt conversion at the end from winning the game. Home teams that lost by 3 or less as DD AD’s are 8-25 ATS. Compound that with their 2 previous losses vs a NO team that was shown up by a rookie QB in ATL & we’ll take road team by a TD in a higher scoring game here.
TAMPA BAY 20 Minnesota 13 - This is the 1st meeting since 2005 for these old NFC North foes. This is the 1st of B2B road trips to Florida for the Vikings. MIN is 9-18-1 ATS as a non-div AD. TB is 12-6-1 ATS as a non-div HF. TB needed the bye to get its running game healed as RB Dunn (back) sat out vs KC & RB Graham has split time at FB due to injuries to Askew (hamstring) & Cook. TB is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home TY with a 339-218 yd edge & 25-11 avg score. TB has held foes to just 69 yds rushing (3.4) forcing them into 3rd & long (30%) giving TB a 3-9 ratio at home TY. MIN’s defense came up big LW vs GB holding them to 1 of 11 on 3rd Dns, sacking Rogers 4 times & forcing 2 safeties. They had a 361-184 yd edge but RB Peterson had the late game winning TD & MIN has outrushed foes 172 (4.9) to 72 (3.6) the L4W. While MIN is off a good defensive effort, TB has a better defense, QB Garcia will have another week to work with an improving set of skill players & we’ll side with the home team here in a lower scoring game.
SAN FRANCISCO 21 St Louis 14 - This is the latest the initial game has been between these division foes since 1990. Martz gets another crack at his former team as he lost to STL 41-34 in 2006 5.5 AD with DET. He does harbor grudges as SF beat DET 31-13 as a 5 pt HF TY with 370-240 yd edge. STL beat SF 13-9 as a 3 pt AF LY to snap a 6 game ATS losing streak. SF is off LW’s MNF game vs ARZ & its unknown how the switch to Shaun Hill went. In their 6 game losing streak prior to MNF SF had only won the yardage battle in 1 game (SEA), being outgained 352-292, allowing a 9-4 ratio with 6 sacks (5 vs NE in 2nd West Coast game). STL was humiliated LW down 40-0 at the half giving the Jets 15-5 FD & 248-88 yd edges. STL pulled Bulger in the 3Q after he had 65 yds (46%) with an int. STL has not won the TOP battle in any game TY & have been outrushed 157 (5.0) to 97 (3.8) since Haslett took over. Neither team is particularly attractive as after his first 2 games vs WAS & DAL STL is 0-3 & their flaws are resurfacing. SF is an unknown as we are anxious to see if Singletary can force Martz to be more conventional but we’ll side with the home team by a TD as we want to see their play on MNF.
Arizona 30 SEATTLE 20 - This is the 3rd straight division game for ARZ & they are off LW’s MNF game vs SF. SEA just made the longest roundtrip possible in the NFL (5469 miles) in their 21-19 loss to MIA. SEA is 4-1 ATS hosting ARZ & 6-0 ATS as a div dog. After coming in as the Div favorite SEA is now 2-7 but even more surprising just 1-3 SU & ATS at home. They’ve now played 5 games without QB Hasselbeck & they’ve avg’d just 229 ypg vs 337 ypg in the 3 full games he played. He took snaps with the scout team LW & should be back here along with WR Branch (heel). ARZ offense continues to improve behind the rejuvenated Warner (302 ypg 73% 8-2 ratio since Jets) & they’ve shown they can be productive on the road avg 468 ypg & 31 ppg the L3 away. ARZ #3 offense should continue that same success vs the #31 pass defense of SEA (14-4 ratio). While SEA has not been a division HD since 2002 the Cardinals have the better offense, defense & catch Hasselback in his first live action in over a month.
Dallas at WASHINGTON - DAL desperately needed the bye to regroup & will be rewarded with QB Romo, RB Jones, LG Kosier & CB Newman all returning to the field here. WAS is hoping to get DE Taylor (calf) back & signed former OAK CB Hall over the bye. WAS was manhandled by PIT on MNF before the bye & NFL leading rusher Portis was held to just 51 yds (3.9). WAS came into DAL in the 1st meeting & beat them 26-24 as a 10’ pt AD. WAS outrushed DAL 161 (4.4) to 44 (4.0) & had a 17:18 TOP edge. Even though most of the pregame hype will be on the QB’s this game will come down to who has the better run game here.
Cleveland at BUFFALO - Brady Quinn became the 11th starting QB for CLE in the 10 years since their return. While he had 239 yds (66%) with a 2-0 ratio he only had 3 passes of 10 or more yds. For the 2nd week in a row CLE’s #27 defense let a big lead slip away for the loss. BUF was riding high with a 5-1 record after beating SD but has lost 3 straight div games. Quinn gets another favorable matchup as BUF’s defense which will likely be without 3 starters & the team has extra rest. BUF gave DAL a huge scare in their 1st MNF game in 13 years LY on MNF and are desperate after 3 straight division losses
3* Totals
3★ Eagles/Bengals Over 47*
3★ Texans/Colts Over 49
3★ Rams/49ers Under 44*
2★ Broncos/Falcons Over 50
2★ Vikings/Bucs Under 40
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NELLY
RATING 5 ATLANTA (-5½) over Denver
RATING 4 HOUSTON (+9) over Indianapolis
RATING 3 PHILADELPHIA (-9½) over Cincinnati
RATING 2 PITTSBURGH (-3½) over San Diego
RATING 1 TENNESSEE (-3) over Jacksonville
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2008
ATLANTA (-5½) Denver (51) 12:00 PM
The Falcons moved to 6-3 and a perfect 4-0 S/U and ATS on the season with
a big division win last week. Denver’s defense is allowing huge numbers and
although Atlanta’s defense has been vulnerable to the pass Denver’s RB
options are limited with a rash of injuries. Denver is just 2-7 ATS this season
and this will be the second week on the road for the Broncos. Atlanta’s
running game has been among the best in the league and the Falcons
should have no problems producing yardage this week. Atlanta is for real,
take advantage while the value is still there. FALCONS BY 14
MIAMI (-11) Oakland (39½) 12:00 PM
The Dolphins have terrible numbers in recent years as home favorites and
this could be another narrow home win. Oakland severely out-gained
Carolina last week in a sloppy game filled with turnovers but the Raiders
managed just six points. At 5-4 Miami needs to be considered a serious
playoff threat looking at the schedule ahead but the Dolphins have very few
double-digit wins in recent years. Oakland is a tough team to back but Miami
is not yet ready to lay this high of a number. DOLPHINS BY 3
NY GIANTS (-6½) Baltimore (42) 12:00 PM
The Giants have impressed, moving to 8-1 and New York has to be
considered a Super Bowl favorite. This could be a flat spot for New York after
back-to-back division wins. Baltimore’s defense is as good as any that the
team has faced this season and Pittsburgh proved earlier this year that the
Giants offense can be contained. New York has struggled in all three games
against AFC teams and Baltimore may catch some value against New York
coming off the Giants Sunday night national TV win. GIANTS BY 3
INDIANAPOLIS (-9) Houston (49) 12:00 PM
The Colts are back in the picture with back-to-back wins over quality teams.
Four of five wins for Indianapolis came against winning teams and the
schedule is about to get much more favorable for Indianapolis to make a
charge to wild card position. Houston is 0-4 S/U on the road this season and
last week’s home loss was particularly discouraging. The Texans can post
big numbers with Rosenfels at QB but turnovers continue to be a big
problem. The Colts are still vulnerable against the run and Houston is a bit
underrated based on tough early scheduling. COLTS BY 4
Tennessee (-3) JACKSONVILLE (40) 3:15 PM
The Titans continue to deliver big wins but this will be a tricky spot, facing a
second straight road game. The Jaguars lost the opening week in a 17-10
game at Tennessee but the Titans used QB Young for most of that game.
Coming off back-to-back losses Jacksonville came up with a strong
performance last week but Jacksonville has few impressive wins on the year.
Last week the Titans proved they could win without a running game and the
run defense for Jacksonville is not a particularly strong defensive team
against the run. Tennessee should be played on until they show more
vulnerability as they are still not valued like a 9-0 team. TITANS BY 10
GREEN BAY (NL) Chicago 12:00 PM
This is a critical game for the Packers, having lost back-to-back games and a
loss would mean falling two games behind the Bears in the division
standings. Chicago will be on the road for each of the next three weeks
making this also a critical game, especially with Minnesota matching their
record last week. The Bears won both games against the Packers last
season and Chicago has had solid recent success at Lambeau Field. Green
Bay has been horrible at stopping the run this season and with Grossman at
QB, the Bears will focus on running the ball. Green Bay needs this win but
Chicago has been the better team. PACKERS BY 2
Philadelphia (-9½) CINCINNATI 12:00 PM
The Eagles have a lot of vulnerable areas but they seem to catch a lot of
breaks. Losing last Sunday night was a critical blow in the standings but
Philadelphia had won three in row prior to that loss. Philadelphia is 12-3 ATS
in the last 15 road games and Philadelphia has only lost to quality teams this
season, generally taking care of business against teams they should beat.
Cincinnati enters this game off the first win of the year and a bye week but
the Bengals are not likely to carry momentum into this game. Look for the
Eagles to bounce back with a complete performance. EAGLES BY 17
New Orleans (-4½) KANSAS CITY (47½) 12:00 PM
The Chiefs put together a great effort last week in a divisional game but the
end result was still a loss. QB Thigpen has made a lot of progress in recent
weeks and the Kansas City offense has scored 70 points over the past three
games, all against quality opponents. The Saints surrender big numbers but
few teams can keep pace with the passing production posted by New
Orleans. The Saints should finally have the full offensive arsenal in effect this
week and given the strength of the records of the rest of the NFC South this
is a must-win game for New Orleans but it won’t be easy. SAINTS BY 3
CAROLINA (-14) Detroit (39) 12:00 PM
QB Delhomme had four interceptions and the offense had pathetic numbers
last week but the Panthers were able to get away with it for another win.
Carolina is 7-2 on the season and the Lions are in bad shape with the QB
situation as 3rd stringer Stanton was forced into action this week. The Lions
are still winless and counting on Detroit for a solid effort is very risky. Doubledigit
favorites have been bankroll busters this season with a 3-14 ATS record
on the year so the Lions may find a way to stay close. PANTHERS BY 7
TAMPA BAY (-4) Minnesota (39½) 12:00 PM
Coming off a bye week the Bucs should be ready to face off with a former
division rival. Special teams and turnovers continue to be huge problems for
Minnesota and the Vikings will not be able to rush as successfully against a
solid Tampa defense. Minnesota has not been a strong road performer and
the Vikings are just 3-6 ATS on the year. BUCS BY 6
SAN FRANCISCO (NL) St. Louis 3:05 PM
The 49ers face a short week coming off a Monday night game and it will be
interesting to see how the 49ers look with QB Hill on offense. There has to
be some resentment with OC Martz not being named the interim head coach
despite his much more impressive head coaching experience and Coach
Singletary has raised some alarms. St. Louis was whipped last week and
without a solid running game the Rams have little chance to win. This is the
second straight road game for St. Louis, hitting both coasts. 49ERS BY 7
Arizona (NL) SEATTLE 3:05 PM
Arizona faces a short week before heading to the northwest for the first
meeting with the Seahawks this season. Even though Seattle has a solid
history at home, particularly in this series it is hard to envision the sluggish
Seahawk offense keeping pace with the Cardinals. Arizona has proven
capable against quality teams and games like this will prove whether the
Cardinals can be taken seriously. CARDINALS BY 7
PITTSBURGH (-3½) San Diego (43) 3:15 PM
The Chargers held on for a narrow win against Kansas City last week but
San Diego has not solved the defensive problems that have led to a very
mediocre start to the season. The Steelers are facing a brutal scheduling
stretch but Pittsburgh remains the most effective defensive team in the
league. Pittsburgh’s losses have all come against high quality opponents and
this is long travel for the Chargers. The Steelers have not lost consecutive
games this season and San Diego is still valued like an elite team despite
very poor results this season. STEELERS BY 10
WASHINGTON (NL) Dallas 7:15 PM
No early word whether QB Romo might be back in action this soon and if he
plays he likely would not be at full strength. Both teams have had bye weeks
and this is a critical game in the East standings as New York is close to really
pulling away. Washington’s defense is among the best in the league but
Dallas has more on the line in this match-up. The Cowboys have not had
recent success in this series but after losing the first meeting with
Washington the Cowboys need to make it happen. The Redskins have not
won by big margins this season s o this should be a close game with an edge
to the underdog Cowboys. COWBOYS BY 3
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2008
BUFFALO (-4½) Cleveland (42) 7:35 PM
The Bills have dropped three in a row and are in serious danger of falling out
of contention. Fortunately three losing teams are up next on the schedule.
QB Edwards has had two poor games in a row but the running game might
get going again versus a suspect Cleveland defense. Cleveland QB Quinn
played fairly well in his debut but for the second straight week the Browns
blew a sizable late-game lead. The Bills have won three of four games at
home this season and the one loss featured some bizarre plays in a game
they dominated early. Look for the Bills to bounce back as the adjusted
Browns offense might struggle away from home for the first time. It is do or
die time for the Bills as there is no margin for error. BILLS BY 10
RATING 5 ATLANTA (-5½) over Denver
RATING 4 HOUSTON (+9) over Indianapolis
RATING 3 PHILADELPHIA (-9½) over Cincinnati
RATING 2 PITTSBURGH (-3½) over San Diego
RATING 1 TENNESSEE (-3) over Jacksonville
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2008
ATLANTA (-5½) Denver (51) 12:00 PM
The Falcons moved to 6-3 and a perfect 4-0 S/U and ATS on the season with
a big division win last week. Denver’s defense is allowing huge numbers and
although Atlanta’s defense has been vulnerable to the pass Denver’s RB
options are limited with a rash of injuries. Denver is just 2-7 ATS this season
and this will be the second week on the road for the Broncos. Atlanta’s
running game has been among the best in the league and the Falcons
should have no problems producing yardage this week. Atlanta is for real,
take advantage while the value is still there. FALCONS BY 14
MIAMI (-11) Oakland (39½) 12:00 PM
The Dolphins have terrible numbers in recent years as home favorites and
this could be another narrow home win. Oakland severely out-gained
Carolina last week in a sloppy game filled with turnovers but the Raiders
managed just six points. At 5-4 Miami needs to be considered a serious
playoff threat looking at the schedule ahead but the Dolphins have very few
double-digit wins in recent years. Oakland is a tough team to back but Miami
is not yet ready to lay this high of a number. DOLPHINS BY 3
NY GIANTS (-6½) Baltimore (42) 12:00 PM
The Giants have impressed, moving to 8-1 and New York has to be
considered a Super Bowl favorite. This could be a flat spot for New York after
back-to-back division wins. Baltimore’s defense is as good as any that the
team has faced this season and Pittsburgh proved earlier this year that the
Giants offense can be contained. New York has struggled in all three games
against AFC teams and Baltimore may catch some value against New York
coming off the Giants Sunday night national TV win. GIANTS BY 3
INDIANAPOLIS (-9) Houston (49) 12:00 PM
The Colts are back in the picture with back-to-back wins over quality teams.
Four of five wins for Indianapolis came against winning teams and the
schedule is about to get much more favorable for Indianapolis to make a
charge to wild card position. Houston is 0-4 S/U on the road this season and
last week’s home loss was particularly discouraging. The Texans can post
big numbers with Rosenfels at QB but turnovers continue to be a big
problem. The Colts are still vulnerable against the run and Houston is a bit
underrated based on tough early scheduling. COLTS BY 4
Tennessee (-3) JACKSONVILLE (40) 3:15 PM
The Titans continue to deliver big wins but this will be a tricky spot, facing a
second straight road game. The Jaguars lost the opening week in a 17-10
game at Tennessee but the Titans used QB Young for most of that game.
Coming off back-to-back losses Jacksonville came up with a strong
performance last week but Jacksonville has few impressive wins on the year.
Last week the Titans proved they could win without a running game and the
run defense for Jacksonville is not a particularly strong defensive team
against the run. Tennessee should be played on until they show more
vulnerability as they are still not valued like a 9-0 team. TITANS BY 10
GREEN BAY (NL) Chicago 12:00 PM
This is a critical game for the Packers, having lost back-to-back games and a
loss would mean falling two games behind the Bears in the division
standings. Chicago will be on the road for each of the next three weeks
making this also a critical game, especially with Minnesota matching their
record last week. The Bears won both games against the Packers last
season and Chicago has had solid recent success at Lambeau Field. Green
Bay has been horrible at stopping the run this season and with Grossman at
QB, the Bears will focus on running the ball. Green Bay needs this win but
Chicago has been the better team. PACKERS BY 2
Philadelphia (-9½) CINCINNATI 12:00 PM
The Eagles have a lot of vulnerable areas but they seem to catch a lot of
breaks. Losing last Sunday night was a critical blow in the standings but
Philadelphia had won three in row prior to that loss. Philadelphia is 12-3 ATS
in the last 15 road games and Philadelphia has only lost to quality teams this
season, generally taking care of business against teams they should beat.
Cincinnati enters this game off the first win of the year and a bye week but
the Bengals are not likely to carry momentum into this game. Look for the
Eagles to bounce back with a complete performance. EAGLES BY 17
New Orleans (-4½) KANSAS CITY (47½) 12:00 PM
The Chiefs put together a great effort last week in a divisional game but the
end result was still a loss. QB Thigpen has made a lot of progress in recent
weeks and the Kansas City offense has scored 70 points over the past three
games, all against quality opponents. The Saints surrender big numbers but
few teams can keep pace with the passing production posted by New
Orleans. The Saints should finally have the full offensive arsenal in effect this
week and given the strength of the records of the rest of the NFC South this
is a must-win game for New Orleans but it won’t be easy. SAINTS BY 3
CAROLINA (-14) Detroit (39) 12:00 PM
QB Delhomme had four interceptions and the offense had pathetic numbers
last week but the Panthers were able to get away with it for another win.
Carolina is 7-2 on the season and the Lions are in bad shape with the QB
situation as 3rd stringer Stanton was forced into action this week. The Lions
are still winless and counting on Detroit for a solid effort is very risky. Doubledigit
favorites have been bankroll busters this season with a 3-14 ATS record
on the year so the Lions may find a way to stay close. PANTHERS BY 7
TAMPA BAY (-4) Minnesota (39½) 12:00 PM
Coming off a bye week the Bucs should be ready to face off with a former
division rival. Special teams and turnovers continue to be huge problems for
Minnesota and the Vikings will not be able to rush as successfully against a
solid Tampa defense. Minnesota has not been a strong road performer and
the Vikings are just 3-6 ATS on the year. BUCS BY 6
SAN FRANCISCO (NL) St. Louis 3:05 PM
The 49ers face a short week coming off a Monday night game and it will be
interesting to see how the 49ers look with QB Hill on offense. There has to
be some resentment with OC Martz not being named the interim head coach
despite his much more impressive head coaching experience and Coach
Singletary has raised some alarms. St. Louis was whipped last week and
without a solid running game the Rams have little chance to win. This is the
second straight road game for St. Louis, hitting both coasts. 49ERS BY 7
Arizona (NL) SEATTLE 3:05 PM
Arizona faces a short week before heading to the northwest for the first
meeting with the Seahawks this season. Even though Seattle has a solid
history at home, particularly in this series it is hard to envision the sluggish
Seahawk offense keeping pace with the Cardinals. Arizona has proven
capable against quality teams and games like this will prove whether the
Cardinals can be taken seriously. CARDINALS BY 7
PITTSBURGH (-3½) San Diego (43) 3:15 PM
The Chargers held on for a narrow win against Kansas City last week but
San Diego has not solved the defensive problems that have led to a very
mediocre start to the season. The Steelers are facing a brutal scheduling
stretch but Pittsburgh remains the most effective defensive team in the
league. Pittsburgh’s losses have all come against high quality opponents and
this is long travel for the Chargers. The Steelers have not lost consecutive
games this season and San Diego is still valued like an elite team despite
very poor results this season. STEELERS BY 10
WASHINGTON (NL) Dallas 7:15 PM
No early word whether QB Romo might be back in action this soon and if he
plays he likely would not be at full strength. Both teams have had bye weeks
and this is a critical game in the East standings as New York is close to really
pulling away. Washington’s defense is among the best in the league but
Dallas has more on the line in this match-up. The Cowboys have not had
recent success in this series but after losing the first meeting with
Washington the Cowboys need to make it happen. The Redskins have not
won by big margins this season s o this should be a close game with an edge
to the underdog Cowboys. COWBOYS BY 3
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2008
BUFFALO (-4½) Cleveland (42) 7:35 PM
The Bills have dropped three in a row and are in serious danger of falling out
of contention. Fortunately three losing teams are up next on the schedule.
QB Edwards has had two poor games in a row but the running game might
get going again versus a suspect Cleveland defense. Cleveland QB Quinn
played fairly well in his debut but for the second straight week the Browns
blew a sizable late-game lead. The Bills have won three of four games at
home this season and the one loss featured some bizarre plays in a game
they dominated early. Look for the Bills to bounce back as the adjusted
Browns offense might struggle away from home for the first time. It is do or
die time for the Bills as there is no margin for error. BILLS BY 10
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
MIAMI over Oakland by 7
The surprise team in the AFC this season? You’re reading about them. Tony
and the Tuna have done a masterful job turning this one-win laughingstock
into a playoff contender as the Dolphins own a winning record for the
fi rst time since Christmas 2005. It’s been a long uphill climb and the pats
on the back are warranted. Today’s line, though, is not. As we warned on
these pages last week you just don’t take a team working its way out of the
gutter and make them a double-digit favorite. They sniffed this number last
week and failed as 8-point chalk against Seattle and we don’t see anything
different this Sunday. Confi rmation comes from the fact that better Dolphin
teams were 2-17 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more points when playing
off a win. Granted, the Raiders aren’t much but you don’t need to be at
these kind of prices… especially with the Patriots up next for the Fish. A
solid take.
NY GIANTS over Baltimore by 8
Two division leaders (Colts tied with Steelers) enter the ring off underdog
wins last week in an inter-conference clash, yet somehow this does NOT
appear to be a Super Bowl preview. Maybe it’s Baltimore’s persona, eerily
similar to the Falcons with a fi rst-year coach and rookie quarterback. If
defense gets a vote then both would garner plenty of support with the
Ravens No. 2 and Giants No. 3 stop units leading the way. Big Blue is surely a
better team away from the Big Apple (14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS away or neutral;
8-5 SU and ATS home) since last season but the Black Birds appear up against
it in this their 3rd straight road game. That’s because teams in this role, off
a SU underdog win, are just 10-25 ATS, including 1-13 ATS if they own a win
percentage of .636 or greater, since 1980. We’ll lay the points with Eli, who is
3-0 SU and ATS in his NFL career off a SU underdog win versus an opponent
in the same role, over baby Flacco.
5 BEST BET
JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee by 10
Another same-season division revenger leads to a dramatic role change
inside this rematch. When these same two squads squared off in the
2008 season opener in Tennessee the Jaguars were installed as 3-point
favorites. Nine-straight wins later and the roles have changed as the
Titans have become an NFL knockoff artist, looking more and more like
a Louis Vuitton purse at a redneck fashion convention. The question,
though, is are they for real? Indications are they are not. Consider:
after their fi rst 6 games of the season, the Titans were +31 net YPG.
Over the last three games they are -0.6 net YPG. On the reverse side,
the Jags were -78 net YPG thru their fi rst six games but are +50 net
YPG over their last three contests. With two teams on opposite sides
of the stat-track and the pointspread roles fully reversed, we’ll point
to Jack Del Rio’s 17-6 ATS career mark as a dog with revenge (7-0 ATS
last seven) and call for the end of the streak here today. Titans exposed
as a fraud
GREEN BAY over Chicago by 10
Word has it Bear QB Kyle Orton should be taking snaps for the Bears this
week. Whether it’s Orton or Rex Grossman, Chicago needs to turn the corner
– and quick. Despite sitting atop the NFC North Division at 5-4 this season,
the Bears have been outplayed (lost the stats) in 6 of their last 7 games,
including the last four in a row. At 4-5 on the season the Packers are one
game back and actually playing much better than the Windy City gang (4-
1 In The Stats last fi ve games). A double revenge motive from last season,
with both losses as favorites, sets the table for the Cheeseheads. The Bears
have lost the money in each of their last seven games with a winning record
when facing an opponent off back-to-back losses while the Packers are 11-4
SU and ATS in division games under head coach Mike McCarthy, including
5-0 ATS versus a .450 or greater opponent and 4-0 ATS off a loss. Forget the
Colts. It’s the Pack that’s back!
Philadelphia over CINCINNATI by 4
Just when the Eagles appear ready to take fl ight, they crash-and-burn. So
it was last Sunday night when the table was set for Andy Reid’s squad
to play their way back into the NFC East Division race. And like a baby
chewing on chicken bones, they choked. Many will look to their 13-1 ATS
mark in games after engaging the Giants. Others might cite their 8-0 ATS
mark on the road off a division game. Us, feeling like a jilted lover (we
had Philly as a 4* Best Bet atop these pages last week), we’ll point to the
Bengals’ 7-0 ATS mark in this series and their 7-0 ATS record against NFC
East Division opposition when playing off a win. With both teams sporting
solid numbers, we’ll call for a Heimlich Maneuver and side with the well
rested Bengals.
New Orleans over KANSAS CITY by 6
Two disappointing teams will try and lift their chins off the mat in the Tee
Pee at Arrowhead but the truth of the matter is, at this stage of the season,
it doesn’t much matter. Both currently reside in the cellar of their respective
divisions largely due to the fact that neither has managed to win back-toback
games this season. The Saints do bring a 10-1 ATS mark into the contest
on the November road when playing off a double-digit ATS loss while the
Chiefs are 1-5 ATS at home with a losing record when playing off 3 or more
losses in a row against a losing foe. That might be enough of an edge to
point to the right team in this garbage collector’s dream.
CAROLINA over Detroit by 10
First reaction here is to make a case of 1st place team against the cellar
dweller. The problem, however, is the guys in the penthouse don’t deserve
their lofty status. Not when you compete 7 of 27 passes for 57 yards (and
4 interceptions) and still manage to win, 17-6, and cover against the AFC’s
version of the Lions (the Raiders). That win marked the 4th game in a row
in which the Panthers have lost the total yardage, meaning they are riding
in the pole position and are leaking oil. Yes, the Lions are a mess. That’s
confi rmed. But you simply can’t make money laying two touchdowns in the
league with teams that are going backwards on the playing fi eld. Instead
we’ll point to Detroit’s gaudy 18-3-2 ATS mark on the road when playing
off a double-digit SU and ATS non-division loss and grab the points in this
overlay.
TAMPA BAY over Minnesota by 6
Former division rivals square off in Tampa with alot riding on the line in
this game. The 5-4 Vikings fi nd themselves tied atop the NFC North Division
while the 6-3 Bucs are one game back of the Panthers in the NFC South
Division. In the long history between these two clubs Minnesota has
struggled at Tampa, going 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS since 1990, including 0-5 SU
and ATS the last fi ve visits. The Vikes are also 2-13 ATS as road dogs off backto-
back wins against non-division NFC opponents. Admiring Jon Gruden’s
10-3 ATS career mark with rest, including 6-1 ATS at home, we’ll walk the
plank with the Pirates.
SAN FRANCISCO over St. Louis by 6
Niners played spirited ball in Monday night’s gutty loss at Arizona. We’re
certain Mike Singletary will take this team to the next level, much sooner
than later. In the meantime they return home to host the Rams in this NFC
West Division duel with the winner leaving the loser in the cellar. Frisco’s 12-
0 ATS mark as a favorite of less than 14 points in this series holds promise,
as does their 7-0 ATS record with division revenge against an opponent off
back-to-back defeats. Before snapping the rubber band, though, we should
point out that St. Louis is 6-1 ATS as a dog in this series. You’re on your own.
SEATTLE over Arizona by 3
The Cardinals survived a major scare Monday night against the 49ers to go 4
games up in their division with 7 games to play. Yes, Virginia, it appears they
will be hosting their fi rst playoff game since 1947! Between now and then
they will be traveling in unchartered waters, laying points against teams and
at sites in which they have never done before. Like this week, where they
are 3-6 SU in games at Seattle (0-5 last fi ve), having NEVER been favored in
the rainy city. They are also 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS as a .500 or greater team
when playing with division revenge. On the other side of the coin, Seahawk
starting QB Matt Hasselbeck is scheduled to make his return here today.
Look for Seattle to move to 8-0 ATS in games off back-to-back losses against
a .500 or greater foe in this upset special.
PITTSBURGH over San Diego by 7
If there is a more disappointing team in the NFL this season let them make
their case. We’ll nominate the Chargers and put them up against any other
contender. After holding on for dear life against the pathetic Chiefs, they
must now travel to the east coast and try to so something they haven’t done
this season – win a game. It doesn’t bode well that they are 1-8-1 ATS in
their last 10 games in the Steel City, either. To top it off they take on a team
in a nasty mood in Pittsburgh who will be playing off back-to-back previous
home losses. Toss in a dose of Steeler revenge and it will be no surprise to
see the league’s top ranked defense improve on its 10-1 ATS record in games
off a SU favorite loss when seeking revenge against a losing team. Bolts
short-circuit again today.
Dallas over WASHINGTON by 7
Highly anticipated return of Cowboy QB Tony Romo awaits here and it
couldn’t come at a better time. The lack of offense in his absence has forced
the defense to work overtime, resulting in 30 or more points allowed in 3 of
Dallas’ last 4 games. Major revenge from a 26-24 home loss in late September
(as 10.5-point favorites) assures a focused effort by America’s team. Couple
the Cowboys’ 11-1 ATS record in games off a double-digit loss when facing a
division foe off a loss with the fact that teams are just 1-13 ATS after facing
Mike Tomlin’s Steelers in which they scored 20 or less points and it looks like
Dallas in a big way here today.
MIAMI over Oakland by 7
The surprise team in the AFC this season? You’re reading about them. Tony
and the Tuna have done a masterful job turning this one-win laughingstock
into a playoff contender as the Dolphins own a winning record for the
fi rst time since Christmas 2005. It’s been a long uphill climb and the pats
on the back are warranted. Today’s line, though, is not. As we warned on
these pages last week you just don’t take a team working its way out of the
gutter and make them a double-digit favorite. They sniffed this number last
week and failed as 8-point chalk against Seattle and we don’t see anything
different this Sunday. Confi rmation comes from the fact that better Dolphin
teams were 2-17 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more points when playing
off a win. Granted, the Raiders aren’t much but you don’t need to be at
these kind of prices… especially with the Patriots up next for the Fish. A
solid take.
NY GIANTS over Baltimore by 8
Two division leaders (Colts tied with Steelers) enter the ring off underdog
wins last week in an inter-conference clash, yet somehow this does NOT
appear to be a Super Bowl preview. Maybe it’s Baltimore’s persona, eerily
similar to the Falcons with a fi rst-year coach and rookie quarterback. If
defense gets a vote then both would garner plenty of support with the
Ravens No. 2 and Giants No. 3 stop units leading the way. Big Blue is surely a
better team away from the Big Apple (14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS away or neutral;
8-5 SU and ATS home) since last season but the Black Birds appear up against
it in this their 3rd straight road game. That’s because teams in this role, off
a SU underdog win, are just 10-25 ATS, including 1-13 ATS if they own a win
percentage of .636 or greater, since 1980. We’ll lay the points with Eli, who is
3-0 SU and ATS in his NFL career off a SU underdog win versus an opponent
in the same role, over baby Flacco.
5 BEST BET
JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee by 10
Another same-season division revenger leads to a dramatic role change
inside this rematch. When these same two squads squared off in the
2008 season opener in Tennessee the Jaguars were installed as 3-point
favorites. Nine-straight wins later and the roles have changed as the
Titans have become an NFL knockoff artist, looking more and more like
a Louis Vuitton purse at a redneck fashion convention. The question,
though, is are they for real? Indications are they are not. Consider:
after their fi rst 6 games of the season, the Titans were +31 net YPG.
Over the last three games they are -0.6 net YPG. On the reverse side,
the Jags were -78 net YPG thru their fi rst six games but are +50 net
YPG over their last three contests. With two teams on opposite sides
of the stat-track and the pointspread roles fully reversed, we’ll point
to Jack Del Rio’s 17-6 ATS career mark as a dog with revenge (7-0 ATS
last seven) and call for the end of the streak here today. Titans exposed
as a fraud
GREEN BAY over Chicago by 10
Word has it Bear QB Kyle Orton should be taking snaps for the Bears this
week. Whether it’s Orton or Rex Grossman, Chicago needs to turn the corner
– and quick. Despite sitting atop the NFC North Division at 5-4 this season,
the Bears have been outplayed (lost the stats) in 6 of their last 7 games,
including the last four in a row. At 4-5 on the season the Packers are one
game back and actually playing much better than the Windy City gang (4-
1 In The Stats last fi ve games). A double revenge motive from last season,
with both losses as favorites, sets the table for the Cheeseheads. The Bears
have lost the money in each of their last seven games with a winning record
when facing an opponent off back-to-back losses while the Packers are 11-4
SU and ATS in division games under head coach Mike McCarthy, including
5-0 ATS versus a .450 or greater opponent and 4-0 ATS off a loss. Forget the
Colts. It’s the Pack that’s back!
Philadelphia over CINCINNATI by 4
Just when the Eagles appear ready to take fl ight, they crash-and-burn. So
it was last Sunday night when the table was set for Andy Reid’s squad
to play their way back into the NFC East Division race. And like a baby
chewing on chicken bones, they choked. Many will look to their 13-1 ATS
mark in games after engaging the Giants. Others might cite their 8-0 ATS
mark on the road off a division game. Us, feeling like a jilted lover (we
had Philly as a 4* Best Bet atop these pages last week), we’ll point to the
Bengals’ 7-0 ATS mark in this series and their 7-0 ATS record against NFC
East Division opposition when playing off a win. With both teams sporting
solid numbers, we’ll call for a Heimlich Maneuver and side with the well
rested Bengals.
New Orleans over KANSAS CITY by 6
Two disappointing teams will try and lift their chins off the mat in the Tee
Pee at Arrowhead but the truth of the matter is, at this stage of the season,
it doesn’t much matter. Both currently reside in the cellar of their respective
divisions largely due to the fact that neither has managed to win back-toback
games this season. The Saints do bring a 10-1 ATS mark into the contest
on the November road when playing off a double-digit ATS loss while the
Chiefs are 1-5 ATS at home with a losing record when playing off 3 or more
losses in a row against a losing foe. That might be enough of an edge to
point to the right team in this garbage collector’s dream.
CAROLINA over Detroit by 10
First reaction here is to make a case of 1st place team against the cellar
dweller. The problem, however, is the guys in the penthouse don’t deserve
their lofty status. Not when you compete 7 of 27 passes for 57 yards (and
4 interceptions) and still manage to win, 17-6, and cover against the AFC’s
version of the Lions (the Raiders). That win marked the 4th game in a row
in which the Panthers have lost the total yardage, meaning they are riding
in the pole position and are leaking oil. Yes, the Lions are a mess. That’s
confi rmed. But you simply can’t make money laying two touchdowns in the
league with teams that are going backwards on the playing fi eld. Instead
we’ll point to Detroit’s gaudy 18-3-2 ATS mark on the road when playing
off a double-digit SU and ATS non-division loss and grab the points in this
overlay.
TAMPA BAY over Minnesota by 6
Former division rivals square off in Tampa with alot riding on the line in
this game. The 5-4 Vikings fi nd themselves tied atop the NFC North Division
while the 6-3 Bucs are one game back of the Panthers in the NFC South
Division. In the long history between these two clubs Minnesota has
struggled at Tampa, going 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS since 1990, including 0-5 SU
and ATS the last fi ve visits. The Vikes are also 2-13 ATS as road dogs off backto-
back wins against non-division NFC opponents. Admiring Jon Gruden’s
10-3 ATS career mark with rest, including 6-1 ATS at home, we’ll walk the
plank with the Pirates.
SAN FRANCISCO over St. Louis by 6
Niners played spirited ball in Monday night’s gutty loss at Arizona. We’re
certain Mike Singletary will take this team to the next level, much sooner
than later. In the meantime they return home to host the Rams in this NFC
West Division duel with the winner leaving the loser in the cellar. Frisco’s 12-
0 ATS mark as a favorite of less than 14 points in this series holds promise,
as does their 7-0 ATS record with division revenge against an opponent off
back-to-back defeats. Before snapping the rubber band, though, we should
point out that St. Louis is 6-1 ATS as a dog in this series. You’re on your own.
SEATTLE over Arizona by 3
The Cardinals survived a major scare Monday night against the 49ers to go 4
games up in their division with 7 games to play. Yes, Virginia, it appears they
will be hosting their fi rst playoff game since 1947! Between now and then
they will be traveling in unchartered waters, laying points against teams and
at sites in which they have never done before. Like this week, where they
are 3-6 SU in games at Seattle (0-5 last fi ve), having NEVER been favored in
the rainy city. They are also 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS as a .500 or greater team
when playing with division revenge. On the other side of the coin, Seahawk
starting QB Matt Hasselbeck is scheduled to make his return here today.
Look for Seattle to move to 8-0 ATS in games off back-to-back losses against
a .500 or greater foe in this upset special.
PITTSBURGH over San Diego by 7
If there is a more disappointing team in the NFL this season let them make
their case. We’ll nominate the Chargers and put them up against any other
contender. After holding on for dear life against the pathetic Chiefs, they
must now travel to the east coast and try to so something they haven’t done
this season – win a game. It doesn’t bode well that they are 1-8-1 ATS in
their last 10 games in the Steel City, either. To top it off they take on a team
in a nasty mood in Pittsburgh who will be playing off back-to-back previous
home losses. Toss in a dose of Steeler revenge and it will be no surprise to
see the league’s top ranked defense improve on its 10-1 ATS record in games
off a SU favorite loss when seeking revenge against a losing team. Bolts
short-circuit again today.
Dallas over WASHINGTON by 7
Highly anticipated return of Cowboy QB Tony Romo awaits here and it
couldn’t come at a better time. The lack of offense in his absence has forced
the defense to work overtime, resulting in 30 or more points allowed in 3 of
Dallas’ last 4 games. Major revenge from a 26-24 home loss in late September
(as 10.5-point favorites) assures a focused effort by America’s team. Couple
the Cowboys’ 11-1 ATS record in games off a double-digit loss when facing a
division foe off a loss with the fact that teams are just 1-13 ATS after facing
Mike Tomlin’s Steelers in which they scored 20 or less points and it looks like
Dallas in a big way here today.
John Ryan
Game: Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons Nov 16 2008 1:00PM
Prediction: Denver Broncos
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Denver - Denver has a 71% probability of losing this game by 6 or fewer points. Denver has a 90% probability of gaining 6 or more yards per play. Note that Denver is a solid 62-32 ATS when in this role over the past 10 seasons. They also have an 88% probability of scoring 22 or more points. Atlanta is just 3-10 ATS when allowing 22 to 28 points over the past 3 seasons. Atlanta is also just 38-63 ATS when they allow 6 or more yards per play over the past 10 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 46-18 ATS for 72% since 2002. Play on road teams after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and is facing an opponent after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Atlanta is in a series of poor roles noting they are just 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992; 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) versus good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons; 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1992. Denver had a huge offensive game last week against Cleveland (MNF 15* winner) gaining 564 yards. Note that Denver is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Take the Denver Broncos
Game: Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons Nov 16 2008 1:00PM
Prediction: Denver Broncos
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Denver - Denver has a 71% probability of losing this game by 6 or fewer points. Denver has a 90% probability of gaining 6 or more yards per play. Note that Denver is a solid 62-32 ATS when in this role over the past 10 seasons. They also have an 88% probability of scoring 22 or more points. Atlanta is just 3-10 ATS when allowing 22 to 28 points over the past 3 seasons. Atlanta is also just 38-63 ATS when they allow 6 or more yards per play over the past 10 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 46-18 ATS for 72% since 2002. Play on road teams after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and is facing an opponent after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Atlanta is in a series of poor roles noting they are just 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992; 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) versus good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons; 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1992. Denver had a huge offensive game last week against Cleveland (MNF 15* winner) gaining 564 yards. Note that Denver is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Take the Denver Broncos
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Nov 16 2008 4:05PM
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
Reason: The Cardinals are 6-3 SU and ATS on the season. Arizona's offense has been unstoppable averaging 29.2 PPG and that's bad news for a Seattle D that is allowing 25.7 PPG. In their last 13 games coming off an ATS loss the Cardinals are 9-4 at the window. Seaatle has struggled to a 2-7 SU record this season. The Seawhawks do get their starting QB, Hasselbeck back for this one but he can't fix a poor D. Seattle is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Seattle has owned this division but this year it looks like the Cardinals will win it and to make the point they'll easily beat the Seahawks. Play on the Arizona Cardinals -.
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Nov 16 2008 4:05PM
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
Reason: The Cardinals are 6-3 SU and ATS on the season. Arizona's offense has been unstoppable averaging 29.2 PPG and that's bad news for a Seattle D that is allowing 25.7 PPG. In their last 13 games coming off an ATS loss the Cardinals are 9-4 at the window. Seaatle has struggled to a 2-7 SU record this season. The Seawhawks do get their starting QB, Hasselbeck back for this one but he can't fix a poor D. Seattle is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Seattle has owned this division but this year it looks like the Cardinals will win it and to make the point they'll easily beat the Seahawks. Play on the Arizona Cardinals -.
MR A
Sunday, November 16th, 1:00 p.m. est.
Minnesota Vikings (5-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers are back at home, where they play tough. The Buccaneers are 4-1 both SU and ATS in its last 5 home games. Contrary, the Vikings have struggle away from home, just 1-4 both SU and ATS in its last 5 on the road. The Vikings will have a problem stopping Tampa’s ground assault. Take the Bucs at home. Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings versus Minnesota at Raymond James Stadium.
Sunday, November 16th, 4:15 p.m. est.
Tennessee Titans (9-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5) Tennessee Titans -3
Under - 39½
The undefeated Titans have won three of the last four meetings versus Jacksonville, including 17-10 season opener at home. Expect a close hard fought battle between similar teams. This is a vital game for the Jaguars, but the Titans will be focus against their AFC South rival. Tennessee is 3-1 both SU and ATS in the past four meetings. Take the Titans! Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and the total has gone under in eight of last 12 meetings at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
Sunday, November 16th, 1:00 p.m. est.
Minnesota Vikings (5-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers are back at home, where they play tough. The Buccaneers are 4-1 both SU and ATS in its last 5 home games. Contrary, the Vikings have struggle away from home, just 1-4 both SU and ATS in its last 5 on the road. The Vikings will have a problem stopping Tampa’s ground assault. Take the Bucs at home. Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings versus Minnesota at Raymond James Stadium.
Sunday, November 16th, 4:15 p.m. est.
Tennessee Titans (9-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5) Tennessee Titans -3
Under - 39½
The undefeated Titans have won three of the last four meetings versus Jacksonville, including 17-10 season opener at home. Expect a close hard fought battle between similar teams. This is a vital game for the Jaguars, but the Titans will be focus against their AFC South rival. Tennessee is 3-1 both SU and ATS in the past four meetings. Take the Titans! Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and the total has gone under in eight of last 12 meetings at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
GINA
Sunday, November 16th , 1:00 p.m. est.
Oakland Raiders (2-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-4)
Go with the Miami Dolphins to win their fourth straight game when they face the struggling Oakland Raiders at Dolphins Stadium. Laying 10 points is huge, but the Raider’s offense is pathetic.
Miami Dolphins -10
Sunday, November 16th , 8:15 p.m. est.
Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Washington Redskins (6-3)
The unpredictable Cowboys are in a pickle. They need to win this battle against the Redskins and with the return of Tony Romo after breaking his pinkie finger hope to stay alive, but it won’t be easy. The Redskins beat the Cowboys 26-24 in week 4 and have won five of the last seven against their NFC East rival Cowboys. Expect a close battle, but with the Redskins key running back Clinton Portis and wide receiver Santana Moss status questionable, I will go with Romo with his little pinkie boo–boo. Look for wide receiver Terrell Owens to be the hero against the Redskins’ tough defense
Dallas Cowboys - 1½
Sunday, November 16th , 1:00 p.m. est.
Oakland Raiders (2-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-4)
Go with the Miami Dolphins to win their fourth straight game when they face the struggling Oakland Raiders at Dolphins Stadium. Laying 10 points is huge, but the Raider’s offense is pathetic.
Miami Dolphins -10
Sunday, November 16th , 8:15 p.m. est.
Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Washington Redskins (6-3)
The unpredictable Cowboys are in a pickle. They need to win this battle against the Redskins and with the return of Tony Romo after breaking his pinkie finger hope to stay alive, but it won’t be easy. The Redskins beat the Cowboys 26-24 in week 4 and have won five of the last seven against their NFC East rival Cowboys. Expect a close battle, but with the Redskins key running back Clinton Portis and wide receiver Santana Moss status questionable, I will go with Romo with his little pinkie boo–boo. Look for wide receiver Terrell Owens to be the hero against the Redskins’ tough defense
Dallas Cowboys - 1½
FRANK PATRON
30000 UNIT LOCK #28
ARIZONA CARDINALS -2.5
If you have -3 buy it to -2.5. Even though I do not feel we will ever need that half point because Arizona should roll this team by 17 easy. They have too much talent on offense and Seattle is off another cross country flight. Look for the younger fresher legs of Arizona to crush this over matched Seattle squad
30000 UNIT LOCK #28
ARIZONA CARDINALS -2.5
If you have -3 buy it to -2.5. Even though I do not feel we will ever need that half point because Arizona should roll this team by 17 easy. They have too much talent on offense and Seattle is off another cross country flight. Look for the younger fresher legs of Arizona to crush this over matched Seattle squad
DCI
NFL
Sunday, November 16, 2008
ATLANTA 32, Denver 21
CAROLINA 33, Detroit 9
Philadelphia 30, CINCINNATI 15
GREEN BAY 30, Chicago 24
INDIANAPOLIS 34, Houston 17
Tennessee 22, JACKSONVILLE 15
New Orleans 29, KANSAS CITY 22
MIAMI 25, Oakland 12
N.Y. GIANTS 27, Baltimore 17
TAMPA BAY 22, Minnesota 21
SAN FRANCISCO 29, St. Louis 24
Arizona 31, SEATTLE 23
PITTSBURGH 27, San Diego 18
WASHINGTON 23, Dallas 19
Monday, November 17, 2008
Cleveland vs. BUFFALO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NFL
Sunday, November 16, 2008
ATLANTA 32, Denver 21
CAROLINA 33, Detroit 9
Philadelphia 30, CINCINNATI 15
GREEN BAY 30, Chicago 24
INDIANAPOLIS 34, Houston 17
Tennessee 22, JACKSONVILLE 15
New Orleans 29, KANSAS CITY 22
MIAMI 25, Oakland 12
N.Y. GIANTS 27, Baltimore 17
TAMPA BAY 22, Minnesota 21
SAN FRANCISCO 29, St. Louis 24
Arizona 31, SEATTLE 23
PITTSBURGH 27, San Diego 18
WASHINGTON 23, Dallas 19
Monday, November 17, 2008
Cleveland vs. BUFFALO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
