Cajun-Sports NFL Executive-Sunday
#2 NFL Sports Monitor 38-19 (+6830)
Time / Date: 1:00PM EST / Sunday November 16 (CBS)
Game: Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:22 EST November 15
Grade / Prediction: 6* Atlanta Falcons -6
Analysis:
The Georgia Dome will be the site of Sunday’s clash between the host Atlanta Falcons and the visiting Denver Broncos. This game will feature two of the league’s brightest young QB’s in rookie Matt Ryan for the Falcons and Jay Cutler for the Broncos.
With the Atlanta Falcons off to their best nine-game start since last reaching the playoffs in 2004, expectations continue to grow for rookie quarterback Matt Ryan, who so far has been able to exceed them all.
Atlanta used the third overall pick in the last draft to select QB Matt Ryan from Boston College. Ryan has helped turn the Falcons (6-3) into a playoff contender. He's been particularly impressive at home, completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 902 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions.
Ryan was 16-of-23 for 248 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday in Atlanta's 34-20 home win over the Saints, keeping the Falcons tied for second place in the NFC South, one game behind Carolina.
The Atlanta defense held the Saints to just two field goals through the first three quarters. Although the Falcons gave up a season-high 521 yards of offense, most came in the fourth quarter, and they picked off Drew Brees, who had just one interception in the previous three games, three times.
Jay Cutler, the Denver quarterback had one of the best games of his career in a 34-30 win over Cleveland on Nov. 6, snapping a three-game losing streak.
Cutler was 24-of-42 for a career-high 447 yards with three touchdowns and one interception, helping Denver rally from a 13-point, third-quarter deficit.
Cutler has passed for 2,616 yards and 18 touchdowns this season and has completed 211 of his 342 pass attempts - all stats among the AFC leaders. The Broncos will likely need another strong performance from Cutler after their struggling running game was dealt another setback in last week's win.
Rookie Ryan Torain, who missed the first half of the season with a knee injury, ran for 68 yards and one touchdown against the Browns, but he re-injured his knee and will miss the rest of the season. Torain's injury further depletes Denver's backfield, which lost Michael Pittman (spinal cord) and Andre Hall (hand) to season-ending injuries on Nov. 2. Selvin Young, meanwhile, has just one carry since sustaining a groin tear on Oct. 5, an injury he aggravated last week.
The Broncos averaged 120.3 yards on the ground in the first six games, but just 81.0 yards in the last three.
The injury situation for the Broncos isn't much better on defense, where the line-backing corps has also been hit hard. Nate Webster is expected to miss a few weeks with a strained MCL, the same injury that sidelined leading tackler D.J. Williams two weeks ago. Boss Bailey, meanwhile, suffered a season-ending knee injury last month.
The injuries could do further damage to an already struggling defense that ranks fourth in total yards allowed (401.9). Not good news when facing a team that averages rushing the ball for more than 173 (4.8 ypc) yards per game at home with a big bruising back in Michael Turner.
Denver’s rush defense ranks 27th in the league and their pass defense ranks 28th in the league this year. Atlanta has been extremely successful against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league. They have a 402 to 329 yardage advantage over these teams as well as outscoring them 30 to 17. They are also a perfect 6-0 both SU and ATS when facing these types of teams.
Technical support for our selection comes from these high percentage angles. The Broncos are 0-10 ATS when they are one game above 500 after game eight after a straight up win. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS on the road when they are one game above 500 after game eight after a straight up win. The Broncos are 2-10 ATS after a straight up win on the road as a dog. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent between divisional opponents.
NFL teams are 13-26-1 ATS as a dog the week after scoring 34+ points. NFL teams are 5-15 ATS as a road dog after a win as a dog against a non-divisional opponent in which they were losing at the half. NFL teams are 2-12-1 ATS on the road the week after a straight up win on the road in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 40-29 ATS as a home favorite when they won their last two home games.
Our situational report has the Falcons in two positive situations for Sunday’s contest. First we Play ON teams that have a RGA-AD>2 and OHPA-AD>0.4, this situations record is 90-33 ATS since 1994. Secondly we Play ON teams after Week 3 of the season with a Rushing First Down % FOR >35 and a higher season Kick-Off Return Yardage FOR average than their opponent, also a RYF <=35 and Rushing Yards FOR>75 in their last game. This situations record is 303-152 ATS since 1994 and 16-7 ATS this season!
NFL Power System: Play AGAINST a road team (not an underdog of 16+ points) off a
non-Sunday/Monday non-division road SU win in its last game, 15-0 ATS since 1989!
The Falcons have the advantage on both sides of the ball in this match up and combined with strong technical and situational support give us solid line value.
GRADED PREDICTION: 6* Atlanta Falcons -6
Time / Date: 1:05 EST / Sunday November 16 (FOX)
Game: Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:10 EST November 15
Grade / Prediction: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Analysis:
Cigar City will be the site of today’s clash between the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the visiting Vikings from Minnesota. Minnesota enters this game off a hard fought win over divisional rival Green Bay while Tampa is off their bye week.
The Vikings will be playing on a different type of surface than they are accustomed too and they are also in a letdown mode off that huge win over Green Bay.
The Vikings have not won a game in the state of Florida in over eleven years. These two teams are former division rivals and have quite a bit of history between them.
Most of the history is bad for the Vikings as they are 4-9 SU at Tampa Bay and 3-10 ATS since 1990. They are perfect their last five visits to Cigar City posting a 0-5 SU and ATS mark in those trips.
The Bucs “D” will key on Vikings RB Adrian Peterson and force recycled QB Gus Frerotte and his weak wide receiving corps to beat them. The Bucs will make the Vikings one dimensional and that will make for a long afternoon for QB Frerotte.
Tampa is averaging 25.3 points per game at home this season and Jeff Garcia has passed for 876 yards in his last three games. The Bucs “D” is only allowing 10.8 points per game this season at home and should have no problem stopping the limited Vikings offense on Sunday afternoon.
The Vikings are 0-8 ATS on the road the week after a straight up win at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Vikings are 3-14 ATS when their completion percentage decreased in each of their last two games. The Vikings are 0-7 ATS on the road after a win at home in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The Vikings are 3-14-1 ATS as a road dog after a straight up win at home.
NFL teams are 14-32-1 ATS as a road dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL teams are 45-68-3 ATS as a dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. NFL teams are 8-26-1 ATS as a road dog after playing at home in each of the previous two weeks.
The Buccaneers are 15-3-1 ATS at home when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Buccaneers are 18-5-1 ATS as a home favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is greater than 30. NFL teams are 60-35-3 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL teams are 40-29 ATS as a home favorite when they won their last two home games.
Our Situational Report tells us to Play AGAINST teams with an above average Pass Defense Rating coming off a game in which Rushing Attempts For –RAA>20, 145-51 ATS since 1994. Play ON teams with a SU Win%>=0.600 and a lower season Spread Average than their current opponent coming off back-to-back away games, 92-31 ATS since 1994.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that tells us to In Weeks 2-12, play AGAINST a non-Monday team (not an underdog of more than 7 points) off a division SU win against a .500%+ foe last week vs. an opponent before a +.500% opponent next week, 17-0-1 ATS and averages covering the spread by 12.7 points per game!
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday November 16 (CBS)
Game: Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Line Origin: BetCris @ 8:12 EST November 15
Grade / Prediction: 4* Houston Texans +8
Analysis:
Lucas Oil Stadium will be the site of today’s match up between the host Indianapolis Colts and the visiting Texans from Houston. Indy enters today’s game off two huge wins over Pittsburgh and New England. Houston enters off back-to-back losses with the latter being a 41 to 13 beat down by the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday.
The Colts won the first meeting between these two 31 to 27 as road favorites of 3.5 points. They were forced to rally in the final 4:15 of the fourth quarter and score 21 unanswered points. Houston QB Sage Rosenfels lost two fumbles which the Colts converted to 14 points and an interception on their final drive.
Even with two impressive wins the Colts still have major issues on both sides of the ball. They only average 69.2 yards rushing per game with a 3.3 yards per carry average.
Indy’s secondary has suffered from injuries with CB Jackson (MCL) on IR and CB Hayden struggling with a hamstring injury and is questionable. Bob Sanders has returned and played well the last two weeks but they are still exposed on that side of the ball.
Houston QB Rosenfel has thrown for decent numbers but turnovers have killed them with 7 in only 11 quarters of action. We expect those numbers to decline and he should be able to move the ball against this Indy defense.
With the Colts having to throw the ball most of the time because of their lack of a running game this will give Houston the chance to keep this game close. Looking at Indy’s last two wins they were outgained in both cases while Houston has actually won the stat war in their last seven times to post.
We also note that Houston is 12-2 ATS as a division dog off back-to-back losses including a perfect 5-0 ATS their last five on the highway! The Texans are 6-1 ATS as a road dog the week after in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. The Texans are 13-3-1 ATS when they lost and failed to cover their last two games. The Texans are 9-1-1 ATS as a dog when on a 2 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Texans are 12-3-1 ATS as a dog when they lost and failed to cover their last two games. The Texans are 6-0 ATS as a dog when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week.
The Colts are 3-18-1 ATS as a home favorite versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Colts are 3-15-1 ATS as a home favorite versus a divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. The Colts are 6-20-1 ATS at home versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Colts are 4-12 ATS as a favorite when facing a team they beat in their first match-up. The Colts are 3-13-1 ATS as a 7+ favorite versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.
Our Situational Report says to Play ON teams with a Rush Offense Rating at least 0.5 points higher than last season and at least 0.5 points higher than their current opponents, 142-58 ATS. Play ON teams coming off back-to-back SU losses with a Season Starting Field Position FOR average <29, 131-65 ATS. Play ON teams with an ATS Win % <0.300 between week 7 and 12 of the season facing an opponent with an above average RDE+PDE, 109-48 ATS. Play AGAINST teams with a higher SU Win % last season than their current Win % and last season’s SU Win% was > than their PWP, 127-38 ATS since 1994 and a perfect 4-0 ATS this year!
With strong technical and situational support we will back the Texans here as Indy will have trouble getting up for a third straight game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Houston Texans +8
Time / Date: 1:00 PM EST / Sunday November 16 (CBS)
Game: Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons
Line Origin: BetCris @ 3:23 EST November 14
Grade / Prediction: 4* Denver / Atlanta Over 51
Analysis:
The Georgia Dome will be the site of today’s clash between the host Atlanta Falcons and the visiting Broncos from the Mile High City of Denver. The Broncos come into today’s contest off a 34 to 30 road win at Cleveland while the Falcons held off a late charge by the New Orleans Saints to win 34 to 20 at home last Sunday.
Atlanta used the third overall pick in the last draft to acquire QB Matt Ryan. Ryan has helped turn the Falcons (6-3) into a playoff contender. He's been particularly impressive at home, completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 902 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions.
Ryan was 16-of-23 for 248 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday in Atlanta's 34-20 home win over New Orleans, keeping the Falcons tied for second place in the NFC South, one game behind Carolina. The Falcons haven't been this successful after nine games since they were 7-2 in 2004.
Falcons RB Michael Turner ranks 3rd in NFL with 890 rushing yards (98.9 per game). and has 474 yards (118.5 per game) & 6 TDs in 4 home games. When Turner has 8+ carries, his teams are 17-3 (.850). In 10/7/07 game vs. Denver (with SD), Turner rushed 10 times for 147 yards (14.7 avg.) & 1 TD (74 yards). RB Jerious Norwood had 67-yard TD catch last week. Has 6 career TDs & 4 have been 67+ yards…WR Roddy White has 47 catches for 688 yards (98.3 per game) & 6 TDs in past 7
The Atlanta defense will be in for a stiff challenge against Jay Cutler and the Broncos (5-4) after the Denver quarterback had one of the best games of his career in a 34-30 win over Cleveland on Nov. 6, snapping a three-game losing streak.
Cutler was 24-of-42 for a career-high 447 yards with three touchdowns and one interception, helping Denver rally from a 13-point, third-quarter deficit. Cutler has passed for 2,616 yards and 18 touchdowns this season and has completed 211 of his 342 pass attempts - all stats among the AFC leaders.
Broncos WR Brandon Marshall is averaging 89.2 rec. yards per game in ’08 (57 rec., 714 yards in 8 games). Rookie WR Eddie Royal (2nd round, No. 42) posted career-high 164 receiving yards on 6 catches last week. Royal leads NFL rookies with 52 catches & aims for 3rd consecutive game with TD. WRs Marshall (57 rec., 714 rec. yards) & Royal (52 rec., 625 receiving yards) have totaled 109 receptions for 1,339 yards. TE Tony Scheffler averages 17.6 yards per reception (20 rec., 351 yards) in ’08.
The Falcons are 4-0 SU & ATS as hosts, scoring an impressive 32 PPG in those contests. The Broncos defense has struggled on the road this season, in fact over their last eight games they are allowing 30.4 points per game.
Key Angles: The Broncos are 21-8-1 Over since December 03, 2006. The Broncos are 8-0 Over after playing the Browns. The Broncos are 14-1-1 Over when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Broncos
are 12-3 Over the week after scoring 34+ points on the road. The Falcons are 11-1 Over at home when they averaged more than 24 points per game in their last three home games. The Falcons are 9-1 Over at home after playing as a favorite. The Falcons are 12-3 Over at home when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.
Key Systems: NFL teams are 53-33-1 Over as a road dog when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. NFL teams are 77-48-6 Over after playing on the road as a dog. NFL teams are 32-8 Over as a home favorite when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. The League is 23-6 Over as a home favorite when they won by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks. NFL teams are 33-10-1 Over as a favorite the week after at home as a favorite in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 81-42-2 Over the week after in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average.
Key Tech Sets: Dome teams during the second half of the season go “Over” at a very high rate. We know that Game Nine or higher dome teams have gone “over” at a rate of 33-10-1 the last three seasons and 19-3 Over the last year alone. If our dome team is installed as a favorite of 10 or less points they have a perfect 13-0 Over record. We also note that teams (Denver) that allowed 160 or more rushing yards in their last game go over at a rate of 14-5 Over and a perfect 6-0 Over if they are an underdog of seven or less points.
This series also has strong historical tendencies on its side as this series has never gone “Under” the posted total, they are a perfect 8-0 Over all time in the series.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Denver / Atlanta OVER 51
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday November 16 (CBS)
Game: Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Line Origin: BetCris @ 5:27 EST November 14
Grade / Prediction: 3* Houston / Indianapolis Over 50
Analysis:
Lucas Oil Stadium will be the site of Sunday’s match up between the host Indianapolis Colts and the visiting Texans from Houston. Indy comes into today’s contest off a huge win 24 to 20 over the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road last week. The Texans suffered a blowout loss at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday and look to rebound with a win here today.
The Colts have won 12 of 13 all-time matchups, and three straight including a 31-27 victory on Oct. 5 in Houston. Indianapolis also has won all six home meetings by an average of 19.3 points.
Colts QB Peyton Manning has completed 72.1 percent of his passes for 3,539 yards and 31 TDs while starting all of the Colts' 13 contests against the Texans. His yardage and touchdown totals are the most any quarterback has versus Houston.
Manning went 25-for-34 for 247 yards with two TDs as Indianapolis rallied from a 17-point, fourth-quarter deficit against Houston last month. The Colts scored on a pair of fumbles by quarterback Sage Rosenfels before Manning connected with Reggie Wayne on the winning touchdown with 1:54 left.
Indy has averaged 21.2 points per game on offense this season while their defense has given up 21.9 points per game. The Indy rushing attack has continued to struggle averaging only 69.2 yards rushing per game while their passing attack has put up decent numbers averaging 241.6 yards passing per contest. These numbers should continue to improve as the Colts appear to have finally gotten on track after huge wins over New England and Pittsburgh the last two weeks.
Indy’s defense is allowing 133.9 yards rushing per game and their pass defense is allowing 190.9 yards passing per contest for a total of 324.8 yards of total offense.
Houston’s offense has averaged 23.2 points per game on the season while their defense has given up 28.2 points per game. Houston’s rushing attack is averaging 107.3 yards rushing per game and their passing attack even with the injuries and changes at that position has still averaged 264.3 yards passing per game.
Houston’s defense has allowed 130.2 yards rushing per game and their pass defense is allowing 199.1 yards passing per contest for a total of 329.3 yards of total offense per game this season.
Key Angles: The Texans are 10-0 Over as a dog when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Texans are 12-2 Over versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Texans are 11-0 Over versus a divisional opponent. The Colts are 9-1 Over when their opponent is off two 7+ losses. The Colts are 8-1 Over as a favorite after a win in which they were losing at the half. The Colts are 7-0 Over as a home favorite the week after a win on the road in which they did not have the lead after any of the first three quarters.
Key Systems: NFL teams are 22-9 Over as a road dog the week after in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 73-44-4 Over as a dog after a straight up loss. NFL teams are 16-4-1 Over on the road the week after a straight up loss in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 22-7-1 Over as a road dog when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2. NFL teams are 25-7 Over as a home 7+ favorite when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks. NFL teams are 42-22-1 Over as a home favorite after a straight up win on the road. NFL teams are 26-6-1 Over as a home favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.
Key Tech Set: Dome teams during the second half of the season go “Over” at a very high rate. We know that Game Nine or higher dome teams have gone “over” at a rate of 33-10-1 the last three seasons and 19-3 Over the last year alone. If our dome team is installed as a favorite of 10 or less points they have a perfect 13-0 Over record.
This series has seen nine of the thirteen meetings go “Over” the posted total including the last five straight. Combined with the series history and strong technical support we have solid indicators that this game will go “Over” the total.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Houston / Indianapolis OVER 50
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