THE SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Miami (Ohio) at Ball State
Miami (Ohio) looks to bounce back from its first losing season in 12 years when it opens the 2007 campaign by traveling to Ball State for an early-season Mid-American Conference showdown.
A perennial bowl participant and contender for the MAC Championship in recent years, Miami (Ohio) stumbled to a 2-10 finish last year, going just 4-8 against the spread (ATS). The Redhawks missed out on postseason play for the second consecutive year.
Ball State rode a surprisingly strong offense (28.1 points per game) to a 5-7 record last year, including an impressive 8-3 ATS mark in lined games. All five of the Cardinals’ wins came in MAC play, including a 20-17 upset victory at Miami (Ohio) as a 4½-point underdog.
The Redhawks, who averaged 18.7 ppg last year, return seven starters on offense, including all five offensive linemen, as well as quarterback Mike Kokal. The team’s top four rushers also return, and Miami brings back six experienced players to a defense that allowed more than 25 ppg last year.
The Cardinals led the MAC in passing offense last year and they return starting QB Nate Davis, who completed 61.2 percent of his passes for 1,975 yards 18 TDs and 8 INTs as a true freshman in 2006.
Ball State is on ATS runs of 17-7-1 overall, 10-4 at home and 3-0 as a chalk. Meanwhile, Miami (Ohio) is mired in a 4-9 ATS slump as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALL STATE
(2) LSU at Mississippi State
LSU begins the process of trying to live up to some lofty preseason expectations when it travels to Starkville, Miss., to kickoff the season against SEC rival Mississippi State.
LSU went 11-2 last year (6-5-2 ATS), closing the season on a seven-game winning streak (3-2-2 ATS), including a 41-14 rout of Notre Dame as a nine-point favorite in the Sugar Bowl. The Tigers, who have reached double digits in wins three of the last four years, got it done with defense in 2006, allowing just 13 points per game, which was the second-lowest total in the nation.
Mississippi State is coming off another disappointing campaign, as it went 3-9 SU and 5-5-1 ATS. It marked the sixth straight year that the Bulldogs failed to win more than three games. Mississippi State is just 9-25 SU in coach Sylvester Croom’s three years in Starkville (14-16-1 ATS) including 4-20 SU in SEC games (12-12 ATS).
The Tigers’ offense averaged 34 ppg last year, but lost several key members of that unit, most notably QB JaMarcus Russell, as well as WRs Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis, all three of whom went in the first round of the NFL draft. With Russell departed, the QB chores will fall into the hands of either strong-armed senior Matt Flynn or athletic sophomore Ryan Perrilloux.
LSU has won seven straight over the Bulldogs, the last four by at least 30 points, including last year’s 48-13 rout in a game delayed for an hour because of a lightning storm. However, the Tigers came up just shy as a 33½-point home chalk, snapping a 9-0 ATS streak against Mississippi State.
The Tigers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road contests and 8-4-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite since coach Les Miles took over in 2005.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LSU
Kent State at Iowa State
For the first time in 13 seasons, Iowa State takes the field under a new coach as the Cyclones host Kent State in a non-conference clash in Ames, Iowa.
Gene Chizik, former defensive coordinator at Texas, takes over for Dan McCarney, who resigned after 12 seasons with the Cyclones following last year’s disappointing 4-8 finish (3-8 ATS). Iowa State lost six of its final seven games in 2006 and finished just 1-7 SU and ATS in Big 12 play.
One positive for Chizik is he takes over a team with a veteran quarterback, as senior Bret Meyer has made 36 starts in his career. However, Meyer (56.4 percent, 2,546 yards, 12 TDs, 12 INTs last year) lost his top two running backs and top two wide receivers from an offense that put up just 18 ppg a year ago.
Kent State was the picture of mediocrity in 2006, going 6-6 SU and ATS. However, it was a huge improvement over 2005, when the Golden Flash went 1-10 (3-7 ATS).
Kent State returns eight players with experience on both sides of the ball, including QB Julian Edelman (55.4 percent, 1,859 yards, 10 TDs, 11 INTs). Edelman leads an offense that struggled mightily down the stretch last year, averaging just 8 ppg in their final five contests. For the season, the Golden Flash, like Iowa State, averaged 18 ppg.
Kent State is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three season-openers, but it did go 4-1 ATS as a road underdog in 2006.
Iowa State has won the four previous meetings against the Flashes.
The under is on runs of 12-3 for Kent State and 7-2 for Iowa State.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Utah at Oregon State
Oregon State carries a four-game winning streak into its season-opener against Utah, which hopes to get a boost from the return of quarterback Brian Johnson.
Oregon State was one of the surprise teams of 2007, going 10-4 (7-6 ATS), including a huge overtime upset of USC at home, plus a thrilling 39-38 victory over Missouri in the Sun Bowl. The Beavers return 13 players with experience, but one key loss was QB Matt Moore, who helped guide an offense that scored 30 points or more in six of its last seven games, including the final four in a row.
Despite not having Johnson under center the entire year because of injury, Utah still managed to finish 8-5 (8-4 ATS) and advance to a bowl game for the fourth consecutive year. Like Oregon State, the Utes finished strong, winning four of their final five games (5-0 ATS), with the only loss being a heartbreaking, last-second 33-31 setback to archrival BYU in the regular-season finale.
Johnson, who hasn’t played since November 2005, returns to an offense that averaged 27 points per game in 2006, its lowest output in four years. The Utes return their two top-producing RBs and all of their top wideouts.
Oregon State is on a 15-6-1 ATS tear when laying points. Meanwhile, the Utes have relished the role of road underdog in recent years, cashing at a 20-4 ATS clip in their last 24 games in that situation.
The Beavers are 8-4-1 SU lifetime against Utah.
The under is on runs of 9-4 for Oregon State overall and 8-2 when Utah faces a Pac-10 opponent.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NFL PRESEASON
N.Y. Giants (1-2 SU and ATS) at New England (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS)
Six days after looking sharp in leading the Patriots to their first preseason win, quarterback Tom Brady almost certainly will be a spectator tonight when New England caps the summer by hosting the Giants.
Brady was 17-for-21 for 167 yards and two touchdowns in Friday’s 24-7 rout of the Panthers as a three-point road favorite. If history is any indication, Brady, who played 2½ quarters against Carolina, won’t sniff the field tonight as coach Bill Belichick normally rests all of his starters in the preseason finale.
With Brady out, backup Matt Cassel will see the majority of the time under center. Cassel figures to eventually give way to Matt Gutierrez, with veteran Vinnie Testaverde playing only in an emergency.
The Giants allowed 14 unanswered second-half points in Saturday’s 20-12 loss to the Jets as a three-point underdog at Giants Stadium. New York QB Eli Manning (17 of 25, 146 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) looked sharp in the defeat. However, Manning will play very little, if at all, tonight, and the same goes for the rest of the Giants’ starters.
Backup QB Jared Lorenzen, who didn’t play last week, probably will see the majority of the duty. Tim Hasselbeck and/or Anthony Wright would take over for Lorenzen.
The Patriots, who will be looking to go 2-2 for the third straight summer, are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three preseason finales. Meanwhile, despite last week’s result, the Giants are still on an 8-3 SU and ATS exhibition run.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
San Francisco (1-2, 2-1 ATS) at San Diego (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
The Chargers attempt to close the preseason on a three-game winning streak when they host the 49ers in the preseason finale for both squads at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego rallied for a 33-31 victory at Arizona last week, but came up short as a three-point road chalk. Meanwhile, the 49ers trailed the Bears 31-13 at Chicago on Saturday before making a game of it late, eventually falling 31-28 but covering as a five-point road underdog.
Don’t expect to see much of Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ starters, who will be on the field for no more than 10 plays tonight. Once Rivers departs, backup QBs Billy Volek (66 percent, 327 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs in the preseason) will finish out the first quarter, with second-year pro Charlie Whitehurst (52 percent, 100 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) leading the offense for the final three quarters.
As usual, San Diego RB LaDainian Tomlinson will be in street clothes tonight. So, too, will his backup, Michael Turner, who suffered an ankle sprain last week at Arizona. That leaves the backfield chores to Darren Sproles and Andrew Pinnock.
San Francisco coach Mike Nolan acknowledged that he will allow QB Alex Smith (64 percent, 211 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) and the rest of the starters to play in this one. He said they will be on the field for 12 snaps or one quarter, whichever comes first. Once Smith departs, Trent Dilfer (69.7 percent, 228 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) will take over, though it’s likely that No. 3 QB Shaun Hill (57.7 percent, 174 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) will see most of the action.
Like Tomlinson, Niners RB Frank Gore will not suit up in the preseason, only Gore’s reasoning is injury-related (broken hand).
The 49ers are on a 5-1 ATS run in the preseason. However, they’ve lost seven consecutive preseason road games (3-4 ATS).
San Diego is 4-1 in its last five preseason home games (3-2 ATS), with the loss coming in Week 1 earlier this month.
These West Coast rivals meet annually in the summer, with the Chargers going 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) in the last four. San Francisco’s lone win came in Week 4 last year, a 23-14 victory as a four-point home chalk.
San Diego has easily topped the total in all three of its preseason games, while San Francisco has done so in its last two. Also, the over is 4-0 in the last four Chargers-Niners clashes, including three preseason games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona (74-60) at San Diego (73-59)
The Padres look to complete a four-game sweep of the Diamondbacks and reclaim sole possession of first place in the N.L. West when they send Chris Young (9-4, 2.12 ERA) to the mound against Doug Davis (11-11, 4.09).
San Diego has posted three consecutive two-run victories over Arizona, including Wednesday’s 3-1 triumph at Petco Park, a result that means the two teams are essentially deadlocked atop the division standings. The Padres are now on runs of 7-1 overall, 10-3 at home and 9-1 against N.L. West foes.
The Diamondbacks have now lost seven of their last 10, but they’re still 11-6 in their last 17 road contests. Also, the Padres have won five of the last six series meetings, but Arizona still leads the season series 7-6.
Young surrendered four runs on five hits in five innings in his most recent start on Aug. 21 at the Mets, failing to register a decision in San Diego’s 7-6 loss. Young missed his last turn in the rotation because of a bad back, and he’s 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA in three starts since returning from a stint on the disabled list.
Young has been absolutely incredible at Petco Park this year, going 4-1 with a 0.66 ERA in 10 starts, allowing just nine runs (five earned) in 68 innings. However, the Padres are just 6-4 in those 10 games, averaging a pathetic 1.7 runs per game.
The righthander has faced Arizona four times over the past two seasons, going 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA. San Diego is 0-2 in Young’s two starts against the DBacks this year, but both of those came in Arizona.
Davis is coming off Saturday’s gem against the Cubs, allowing just a run on six hits in seven innings en route to a 3-1 victory. Arizona is 8-1 in Davis’ last nine starts, including 3-0 on the road. However, for the season, Davis is 4-8 despite a respectable 3.50 ERA in 13 road starts.
Davis is 4-2 with a 3.84 ERA in nine career games (eight starts) against San Diego, including an 8-3 home win on July 13 when the southpaw allowed two runs on five hits in six innings.
The under is a perfect 10-0 in Young’s 10 home starts this year. The under is also 10-3 in Davis’ 13 road outings and 9-3-1 in Arizona’s last 13 overall, including 2-1 in this week’s series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and UNDER
<!-- / message -->