PPP
5* Big East Game of the Week
GA Tech (+2.5) over NOTRE DAME by 7
First of all, if you are wondering, we include the independents, Notre Dame, Navy and Army with our Big East handicapping. In recent years, we had a group of games entitled Perception / Reality. The purpose was to find line value against teams that were over valued by the public forcing the line maker to incorporate public opinion into his opening line. Such is the case today. The Aura of the Golden Dome and the reputation of HC Weis as OC of the Superbowl champion Patriots leaves Notre Dame grossly overvalued in this opening day spot. Adding emotional fuel is the fact that Tech blew a 10-0 home lead before the Irish rallied behind Vet QB Quinn for an eventual 14-10 win. That was one of the few times that the Irish performed well against a quality opponent. In all, they went 2-5 ATS against Bowlers and were destroyed by the Big Boys LSU, USC and Michigan. Now it gets worse for the Irish. They have less experience than almost any other College team returning just 9 starters, only 52% of their lettermen and need to break in a new QB. It’s an inexperienced offense that will be dominated by the blitzing schemes designed by Tech’s DC Tenuta. On offense, Tech is improved as well. No longer are they held down by the “Chain that was Ball”. A vet OL will make the transition easy for new QB Bennett and talented RB Choice. The reality clearly outweighs the perception as Tech is superior on both sides of the ball. It results in what could be a surprisingly easy double digit victory today.
3* Wake Forest (+6.5) over Boston College by 1
Despite the return of 16 starters, including QB Ryan, the opening of the season will not be smooth for a BC team who’s transitioning from the loss of HC O’Brien to new HC “Jag”. Despite their run to the top of the ACC LY and 14 returning starters of their own including QB Skinner, the Deacons continue to get little respect HC Grobe is a master tactician who improved his defense to a surprising 3.1 YPR, 323 TY and 15 PPG. Meanwhile, the offensive ingenuity continues to baffle opponents. It’s a good reason why he stands 20-8 ATS as dog including a perfect 8-0 ATS in that role in the regular season last year. And it’s a good reason why we are looking to grab a TD with this quality dog and coach vs. a team transitioning to a new mentor.
3* Colorado St (+2.5) over Colorado by 7
As coach of Boise St, Colorado HC Hawkins had gotten used to double digit winning seasons. I’m going to guess this is not what he signed up for when he made the move to Boulder. Last year his Buffs went 2-10 SU with an anemic offense that averaged just 16 PPG and 291 YPG. Unfortunately for Hawkins, it appears this will be a minimum 3 year rebuilding job. He will be starting his son Cody at QB at the helm of a success starved passing attack. For Colorado St and the well liked Sonny Lubick, the fortunes have taken a turn for the better. After going 14-21 SU, 13-20 ATS the previous 3Y he features one of his strongest teams ever with 18 returning starters and 82% of his lettermen returning. At the helm is QB Hanie who will have running mate RB Bell returning following an injury plagued 2006. It’s well documented that Lubick has had his most success with a returning senior QB at the helm. In addition, 17 of their top 20 tacklers return to the defensive side of the ball. This defensive oriented series has seen the dog go 10-1 ATS. This time our underdog choice has both the better offense and defense. RAM IT!
