<CENTER>Utah State at UNLV
Thursday, August 30th, 8:05 P.M. EST EST </CENTER>
The UNLV Runnin' Rebels enter in this contest having lost 15 straight road games by an average of 23 ppg, covering just two of those contests. Utah State, despite an ugly season last year, should be much improved this season with 11 starters on defense returning, and 17 starters returning overall. I know the Aggies do not instill confidence in their backers, but it must be noted that they played the 27th toughest schedule in the country last year and learned a lot from playing against four schools that ranked among the top 10 in total offense. It must also be noted that UNLV has an ugly history in this series having lost nine of the last 10 meetings versus Utah State, with the last win coming in Logan. The Aggies have won three straight meetings, outscoring the Rebels by a 104-45 count. With UNLV freshman QB Travis Dixon expected to start - last year's starter Rocky Hinds is still recovering from knee surgery - do not be surprised if Utah State actually makes a game of this. Good Luck - Alex Smart
Play on: Utah State
Thursday, August 30th, 8:05 P.M. EST EST </CENTER>
The UNLV Runnin' Rebels enter in this contest having lost 15 straight road games by an average of 23 ppg, covering just two of those contests. Utah State, despite an ugly season last year, should be much improved this season with 11 starters on defense returning, and 17 starters returning overall. I know the Aggies do not instill confidence in their backers, but it must be noted that they played the 27th toughest schedule in the country last year and learned a lot from playing against four schools that ranked among the top 10 in total offense. It must also be noted that UNLV has an ugly history in this series having lost nine of the last 10 meetings versus Utah State, with the last win coming in Logan. The Aggies have won three straight meetings, outscoring the Rebels by a 104-45 count. With UNLV freshman QB Travis Dixon expected to start - last year's starter Rocky Hinds is still recovering from knee surgery - do not be surprised if Utah State actually makes a game of this. Good Luck - Alex Smart
Play on: Utah State
Robert Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take #951 New York Mets (-140) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
2-Unit Play. Take #951 New York Mets (+115) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
The Mets are 11-1 in El Duque’s last 12 starts. He’s a big game pitcher and this is another big spot for New York. I think that their anger and frustration after last night’s controversial ending carries over to today and they get the best of the red hot Phillies. Philadelphia is 3-13 as a home underdog and 2-5 as a dog. The Mets have also won four straight with Ed Hickox behind the dish, and the road team is 8-1 in his last nine behind the plate. After two razor-thin losses the Mets get back in the win column by beating up the volatile Kyle Lohse.
1-Unit Play. Take #968 Baltimore (-105) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
1-Unit Play. Take #968 Baltimore (-1.5, +180) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
1-Unit Play. Take #958 Chicago Cubs (-170) over Milwaukee (8 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
1-Unit Play. Take #958 Chicago Cubs (-1.5, +120) over Milwaukee (8 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
3-Unit Play. Take #951 New York Mets (-140) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
2-Unit Play. Take #951 New York Mets (+115) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
The Mets are 11-1 in El Duque’s last 12 starts. He’s a big game pitcher and this is another big spot for New York. I think that their anger and frustration after last night’s controversial ending carries over to today and they get the best of the red hot Phillies. Philadelphia is 3-13 as a home underdog and 2-5 as a dog. The Mets have also won four straight with Ed Hickox behind the dish, and the road team is 8-1 in his last nine behind the plate. After two razor-thin losses the Mets get back in the win column by beating up the volatile Kyle Lohse.
1-Unit Play. Take #968 Baltimore (-105) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
1-Unit Play. Take #968 Baltimore (-1.5, +180) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
1-Unit Play. Take #958 Chicago Cubs (-170) over Milwaukee (8 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
1-Unit Play. Take #958 Chicago Cubs (-1.5, +120) over Milwaukee (8 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
Gator’s NCAA 70% Situational Report
NCAA (Thursday): Play Against NCAA home underdogs who averaged 100 or less yards rushing per game last season.
(31-8 ATS last 10 seasons.) (79.5%) PLAY: LSU -31.5
Gator's Super System Selections
Each week during the football, basketball and baseball season's we will post our Top Rated System Selections along with the qualifying system.
Game: Utah vs. Oregon State
System: In Game 1, play ON a non-conference road underdog of 1.5 to 14 points before a conference contest in its next game vs. an opponent playing its first game. 17-1 ATS since 1992 and averages covering by 11.2 points per game. PLAY: Utah +6.5
NCAA (Thursday): Play Against NCAA home underdogs who averaged 100 or less yards rushing per game last season.
(31-8 ATS last 10 seasons.) (79.5%) PLAY: LSU -31.5
Gator's Super System Selections
Each week during the football, basketball and baseball season's we will post our Top Rated System Selections along with the qualifying system.
Game: Utah vs. Oregon State
System: In Game 1, play ON a non-conference road underdog of 1.5 to 14 points before a conference contest in its next game vs. an opponent playing its first game. 17-1 ATS since 1992 and averages covering by 11.2 points per game. PLAY: Utah +6.5
Strike Point from Docs Sports
College Football Plays
5-Unit Game of the Week. #136 Take Iowa State -3 over Kent State (Thursday - 8 pm)
The Gene Chizik era will begin on a high note for the Cyclones. Iowa State will get started at home with their 2007 campaign and despite being regulated to the bottom of the Big 12 the past couple of years, they have far too much talent and team speed to be slowed by the likes of Kent State. Brett Meyer is a player at quarterback, and he and number one wide out Todd Blythe will form a dynamic passing duo both in this opener and throughout the season. Meyer's legs will also add another dimension for the Golden Flashes to struggle with. Blythe's 6'5'' frame will be too much for any of Kent State's sub-6'0'' cornerbacks. Expect mismatches all game long. Also make known of J.J. Bass, a JUCO tailback that will burst onto the scene with his explosive speed in the backfield. He and Jason Scales will help Iowa State tally at least 25 points in a home victory over the Flashes. Lay the small number here.
4-Unit Play. #173 Take Georgia Tech +110 Notre Dame (Saturday - 3:30 pm)
Let's not kid ourselves to actually think the Irish warrant being favored in this game. Yes, they are at home but that's about all they have going for themselves. Charlie Weis hasn't even named a starter, but believe me when I say that all three of his inexperienced options would not fair well against John Tenuta's ferocious defense. Remember last year how well the Yellow Jacket defense contained Brady Quinn. Well, against far lesser talent expect Tech to harrass Notre Dame's signal caller all game long. Conversely, the Irish's defense was horrible a year ago and it isn't much better. Tailback Tashard Choice will run all over them and help the Yellow Jackets control the ball and the tempo of the game. Notre Dame won't score 20 points in this one, and it will be the road Techies that come away with the victory.
2-Unit Play. #175 Take Missouri -5 over Illinois (Saturday - 3:30 pm)
The Illini have been labeled as one of the up-and-coming teams in 2007, however it will be hard pressed to see Juice Williams and company outscore the likes of Chase Daniel and the talented Missouri offense. Illinois is still a super young team and Juice Williams is far from a superstar; he will struggle. Meanwhile, Chase Daniel exhibited last year his abilities and he again will lead a sensational passing attack, using the tight end duo of Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman both down the field and in the short game as well. Mizzou has the defense to limit Illinois in this opener, and we'll see the defensive line help pull away in the third quarter, and a couple of deep balls to extend their lead to double digits. Illinois isn't there yet. Missouri had a year of success in '06 and this year they carry over to further improve. The Tigers take this rivalry game.
2-Unit Play. Take Mississippi/Memphis under 49 (Saturday - 3:30 pm)
These two teams are not offensively inclined. They both come in with quarterback question marks, as each respective starter seems to be somewhat of a weakness for their offense. One of these two will not have 20 this afternoon, and both could easily stay under, this game being a defensive struggle to the final minutes. Ole Miss will rely on BenJarvis Green-Ellis and the running game to stabilize the offense with a ground game, and Memphis will try and employ the same with multiple backs. Expect lots of punts and a field goal shootout at best. The under is the way to go in this one.
2-Unit Play. #205 Take New Mexico -3 over UTEP (Saturday - 10 pm)
The only reason I can come up for why the Miners aren't bigger dogs is because they are at home, and even then it doesn't make sense. If this game was in Albuquerque, the Lobos would be favored by at least a touchdown. Jordan Palmer is gone and UTEP has a boat load of work to do as they rebuild themselves as a winner. New Mexico, on the other hand, has the talent, specifically in the offensive backfield, to make this game not only a good cover but potentially ugly. Rodney Ferguson will carry the rushing load for the Lobos to the tune of another 1,000 yard season, while sophomore quarterback Donovan Porterie has unlimited upside and will wow at times. With two of his top wide outs back, look for a big effort from a New Mexico team that will put up 25-30 in their opener. UTEP is lacking playmakers on offense and their defense will get pushed around both through the air and on the ground. Also, don't laugh when you see an underrated performance by the Lobo defense, as ten starters are back. They are legit and will make some noise in the Mountain West this season. Tonight goes a long way to gain momentum for that run. Play New Mexico here.
5-Unit Play. #225 Take Florida State -165 over Clemson (Monday - 8pm)
Not only will the Seminolees impressively take this opener on the road over Clemson, but they're our pick to win the ACC this season. Loaded on both sides of the ball with ballhawk defenders and speed like nobody's business, Florida State will respond with a sense of urgency after a disppointing season last fall. While the Tigers have a strong duo of tailbacks, their athleticism will be nuetralized, as FSU has all that and more with their stingy defense. Lookout for sophomore safety Myron Rolle, a playmaker to the fullest degree, and he and a very good front seven will keep their yardage at a minimum while Clemson again will lack any type of product from the quarterback position. Florida State, on the other hand, will make plays through the air with their big wide outs DeCody Fagg and Greg Carr. Antonie Smith at tailback will help to keep the offense producing and on the field as much as possible. Florida State has too much depth and talent for just two Clemson players to beat them. The Tiger defense has fallen off a bit from last year and they'll lose the quarerback battle, as LSU offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher will make Drew Weatherford that much more effective ala JaMarcus Russell, as he is now on the staff in Tallahassee. Semionles take this one outright.
College Football Plays
5-Unit Game of the Week. #136 Take Iowa State -3 over Kent State (Thursday - 8 pm)
The Gene Chizik era will begin on a high note for the Cyclones. Iowa State will get started at home with their 2007 campaign and despite being regulated to the bottom of the Big 12 the past couple of years, they have far too much talent and team speed to be slowed by the likes of Kent State. Brett Meyer is a player at quarterback, and he and number one wide out Todd Blythe will form a dynamic passing duo both in this opener and throughout the season. Meyer's legs will also add another dimension for the Golden Flashes to struggle with. Blythe's 6'5'' frame will be too much for any of Kent State's sub-6'0'' cornerbacks. Expect mismatches all game long. Also make known of J.J. Bass, a JUCO tailback that will burst onto the scene with his explosive speed in the backfield. He and Jason Scales will help Iowa State tally at least 25 points in a home victory over the Flashes. Lay the small number here.
4-Unit Play. #173 Take Georgia Tech +110 Notre Dame (Saturday - 3:30 pm)
Let's not kid ourselves to actually think the Irish warrant being favored in this game. Yes, they are at home but that's about all they have going for themselves. Charlie Weis hasn't even named a starter, but believe me when I say that all three of his inexperienced options would not fair well against John Tenuta's ferocious defense. Remember last year how well the Yellow Jacket defense contained Brady Quinn. Well, against far lesser talent expect Tech to harrass Notre Dame's signal caller all game long. Conversely, the Irish's defense was horrible a year ago and it isn't much better. Tailback Tashard Choice will run all over them and help the Yellow Jackets control the ball and the tempo of the game. Notre Dame won't score 20 points in this one, and it will be the road Techies that come away with the victory.
2-Unit Play. #175 Take Missouri -5 over Illinois (Saturday - 3:30 pm)
The Illini have been labeled as one of the up-and-coming teams in 2007, however it will be hard pressed to see Juice Williams and company outscore the likes of Chase Daniel and the talented Missouri offense. Illinois is still a super young team and Juice Williams is far from a superstar; he will struggle. Meanwhile, Chase Daniel exhibited last year his abilities and he again will lead a sensational passing attack, using the tight end duo of Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman both down the field and in the short game as well. Mizzou has the defense to limit Illinois in this opener, and we'll see the defensive line help pull away in the third quarter, and a couple of deep balls to extend their lead to double digits. Illinois isn't there yet. Missouri had a year of success in '06 and this year they carry over to further improve. The Tigers take this rivalry game.
2-Unit Play. Take Mississippi/Memphis under 49 (Saturday - 3:30 pm)
These two teams are not offensively inclined. They both come in with quarterback question marks, as each respective starter seems to be somewhat of a weakness for their offense. One of these two will not have 20 this afternoon, and both could easily stay under, this game being a defensive struggle to the final minutes. Ole Miss will rely on BenJarvis Green-Ellis and the running game to stabilize the offense with a ground game, and Memphis will try and employ the same with multiple backs. Expect lots of punts and a field goal shootout at best. The under is the way to go in this one.
2-Unit Play. #205 Take New Mexico -3 over UTEP (Saturday - 10 pm)
The only reason I can come up for why the Miners aren't bigger dogs is because they are at home, and even then it doesn't make sense. If this game was in Albuquerque, the Lobos would be favored by at least a touchdown. Jordan Palmer is gone and UTEP has a boat load of work to do as they rebuild themselves as a winner. New Mexico, on the other hand, has the talent, specifically in the offensive backfield, to make this game not only a good cover but potentially ugly. Rodney Ferguson will carry the rushing load for the Lobos to the tune of another 1,000 yard season, while sophomore quarterback Donovan Porterie has unlimited upside and will wow at times. With two of his top wide outs back, look for a big effort from a New Mexico team that will put up 25-30 in their opener. UTEP is lacking playmakers on offense and their defense will get pushed around both through the air and on the ground. Also, don't laugh when you see an underrated performance by the Lobo defense, as ten starters are back. They are legit and will make some noise in the Mountain West this season. Tonight goes a long way to gain momentum for that run. Play New Mexico here.
5-Unit Play. #225 Take Florida State -165 over Clemson (Monday - 8pm)
Not only will the Seminolees impressively take this opener on the road over Clemson, but they're our pick to win the ACC this season. Loaded on both sides of the ball with ballhawk defenders and speed like nobody's business, Florida State will respond with a sense of urgency after a disppointing season last fall. While the Tigers have a strong duo of tailbacks, their athleticism will be nuetralized, as FSU has all that and more with their stingy defense. Lookout for sophomore safety Myron Rolle, a playmaker to the fullest degree, and he and a very good front seven will keep their yardage at a minimum while Clemson again will lack any type of product from the quarterback position. Florida State, on the other hand, will make plays through the air with their big wide outs DeCody Fagg and Greg Carr. Antonie Smith at tailback will help to keep the offense producing and on the field as much as possible. Florida State has too much depth and talent for just two Clemson players to beat them. The Tiger defense has fallen off a bit from last year and they'll lose the quarerback battle, as LSU offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher will make Drew Weatherford that much more effective ala JaMarcus Russell, as he is now on the staff in Tallahassee. Semionles take this one outright.
Robert Ferringo's
1-Unit Play. Take LSU (-19) over Mississippi State (8 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
Mississippi State cannot win this game if they cannot score a single point. That’s not an exaggeration – just a prediction; I really don’t see any way possible that MSU manages more than nine points. LSU is 14-1 against the Bulldogs over the past 15 years and the average score of the last six meetings is LSU 42, MSU 7. Needless to say, I think that even this ample spread is a bit light. The Tigers are 9-1 against the spread in the last 10 meetings and have won seven straight in Starkville. I think the Tigers put up a big number here and I don’t see the Bulldogs staying within three touchdowns of them.
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 53.5 Miami, OH at Ball State (7 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
These teams have played seven times since 1996 and the average total of points scored was just 38. None of those seven games would top this number. They’ve played 22 times since 1976 and only combined to average 39 points. Last year’s contest came in well under the 51-point total (20-17) and I think that this is a bit too generous for the opening game of the year. Ball State has averaged just 44.3 points in its last 10 season openers – compared to just 39.4 per game for Miami – and I think that this total is a bit inflated considering that there’s a lot of rust and kinks to be worked out. Miami has just two wideouts that have caught a college pass and Ball State is going with a freshman running back. I’m not expecting fireworks.
4-Unit Play. Take Georgia Tech (+2) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take Georgia Tech (+115) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
The Yellowjackets should have won their opener against the Irish last year, and they posses the better talent going into this game. They are tougher, more physical, and have more experience than an Irish squad that brings back just nine total starters and lost 28 lettermen. Tech lost just 12 lettermen, have 15 starters back and a quarterback (Taylor Bennett) that was exceptional in GT’s bowl game. That’s a far cry from what the Irish will be putting under center. Georgia Tech is 3-0 in its last three road openers – with all three wins coming against ranked teams. I think they win this one outright and I don’t think it will be close.
4-Unit Play. Take Iowa (-11.5) over Northern Illinois (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
UNI can be a scrappy team, but after the loss of their school’s all-time leading rusher (Garrett Wolfe) and an invaluable signal caller (Phil Horvath) I think that we can expect a steep drop-off in the first game of a new era. They’ve lost their last two season openers against Big 10 schools by an average of 19.5 points. Granted, those two opponents were better than this Iowa team – but that NIU team was better as well. Iowa is 7-1-1 ATS against MAC schools. Iowa won last year’s game by 10 points, and with 15 starters back from that game (compared to just 12 for NIU) I expect them to double that margin. Iowa’s D-line is one of the best in the country and will dominate, as will an offensive line that outweighs the UNI front by around 35 pounds per person. Kirk Ferentz is 4-2 ATS in neutral site games in his tenure.
3-Unit Play. Take New Mexico (-3) over Texas-El Paso (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
The Lobos dominated a better UTEP team last year at home, scoring a 13-point win as nine-point underdogs. That win marked their third in the past four meetings with the Miners. New Mexico outrushed UTEP 193-30 last year and brought back 18 starters from that team. I think they pound a Miners defense with just four starters back, a D that couldn’t stop them last year, and UNM controls this one from start to finish.
3-Unit Play. Take Duke (+4.5) over Connecticut (2 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
Now seems like as good of a time as any to snap a 20-game losing streak. And if not, we got the points. Duke brought back 11 offensive starters from a team that hung around with Wake Forest, Alabama, and Miami last year. The Huskies are going into this game with 24 freshman and sophomores on the two-deep and just 10 seniors in uniform. A bad Blue Devils team nearly beat a decent UConn squad back in 2004 (22-20) and I think they get the job done this time around. The moneyline on this game is nearly 30 cents light, meaning that we’re getting exceptional value on the home dog.
2-Unit Play. Take Boston College (-6) over Wake Forest (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
Last year’s wild ride by the Demon Deacons is over; and I’m sure B.C. is going to hammer that point home. Matt Ryan and Co. are primed for a big year and I think they open it with a bang. They are 5-3 ATS at home against ACC teams and are 3-0 as a favorite of -4.5 to -7.5 (avg. win: 18 points). They have struggled against Wake, dropping three of the last four, but I think that the Eagles’ nine returning defensive starters will trump the nine offensive starters that the Deacs brought back. Expect a late Ryan score to provide us with the cushion we need as the Eagles win 23-13.
2-Unit Play. Take Memphis (+3) over Mississippi (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
The Tigers have lost their opener against the Rebels in each of the past two seasons, with the two losses coming by a combined seven points. Memphis brings back 16 returning starters and will be taking on an Ole Miss club that has absolutely no idea who its quarterback will be. This is a passionate contest and I think that there’s more certainty and stability with the Tigers. Memphis is 5-1 in its last six home openers and 2-1-1 ATS vs. Ole Miss since 2002.
2-Unit Play. Take Utah State (+7) over UNLV (8 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
Utah State brings back an incredible 19 starters this year, including 11 on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve beaten UNLV three straight times, including twice in the past three years, by an average score of 35-15. Also, Utah State is 9-1 against the Rebels, with the lone loss coming back in 1994. Somehow the Aggies are getting points at home against a team that’s lost 15 straight road games by an average of 23 points apiece. There is value here on a very live home dog and I think the Aggies win this one outright.
1-Unit Play. Take Syracuse (+3.5) over Washington (8 p.m., Friday, Aug. 31)
Orange fans should get ready for what should be one of their only positive moments this season. The Orange are 18-2-2 against the spread at home against a nonconference opponent and 10-4 ATS over its last 14 games. Washington has gone just 3-14-1 against nonconference opponents lately and are a putrid 4-17 straight up on the road over the past four years. This is going to be a tough atmosphere for the Huskies to perform in and I think that they get it done. Ty Willingham brought Notre Dame into the Loud House in 2003 and was demolished 38-12. It shouldn’t be that bad on Friday but I see SU winning this one outright. Also, this moneyline is about 20 cents light. That’s usually a solid indicator.
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 45.5 Washington at Syracuse (8 p.m., Friday, Aug. 31)
I think that these are two teams that are going to have trouble scoring points all season. A freshman quarterback leads both schools and in the first game of the year I don’t expect either to be particularly sharp. There has been an average of just 26.3 points scored in SU’s home opener over the past three years. Five the Orange’s last seven games have played ‘under’ the total while the Huskies were just 2-7-1 against the total last year.
1-Unit Play. Take LSU (-19) over Mississippi State (8 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
Mississippi State cannot win this game if they cannot score a single point. That’s not an exaggeration – just a prediction; I really don’t see any way possible that MSU manages more than nine points. LSU is 14-1 against the Bulldogs over the past 15 years and the average score of the last six meetings is LSU 42, MSU 7. Needless to say, I think that even this ample spread is a bit light. The Tigers are 9-1 against the spread in the last 10 meetings and have won seven straight in Starkville. I think the Tigers put up a big number here and I don’t see the Bulldogs staying within three touchdowns of them.
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 53.5 Miami, OH at Ball State (7 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
These teams have played seven times since 1996 and the average total of points scored was just 38. None of those seven games would top this number. They’ve played 22 times since 1976 and only combined to average 39 points. Last year’s contest came in well under the 51-point total (20-17) and I think that this is a bit too generous for the opening game of the year. Ball State has averaged just 44.3 points in its last 10 season openers – compared to just 39.4 per game for Miami – and I think that this total is a bit inflated considering that there’s a lot of rust and kinks to be worked out. Miami has just two wideouts that have caught a college pass and Ball State is going with a freshman running back. I’m not expecting fireworks.
4-Unit Play. Take Georgia Tech (+2) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take Georgia Tech (+115) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
The Yellowjackets should have won their opener against the Irish last year, and they posses the better talent going into this game. They are tougher, more physical, and have more experience than an Irish squad that brings back just nine total starters and lost 28 lettermen. Tech lost just 12 lettermen, have 15 starters back and a quarterback (Taylor Bennett) that was exceptional in GT’s bowl game. That’s a far cry from what the Irish will be putting under center. Georgia Tech is 3-0 in its last three road openers – with all three wins coming against ranked teams. I think they win this one outright and I don’t think it will be close.
4-Unit Play. Take Iowa (-11.5) over Northern Illinois (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
UNI can be a scrappy team, but after the loss of their school’s all-time leading rusher (Garrett Wolfe) and an invaluable signal caller (Phil Horvath) I think that we can expect a steep drop-off in the first game of a new era. They’ve lost their last two season openers against Big 10 schools by an average of 19.5 points. Granted, those two opponents were better than this Iowa team – but that NIU team was better as well. Iowa is 7-1-1 ATS against MAC schools. Iowa won last year’s game by 10 points, and with 15 starters back from that game (compared to just 12 for NIU) I expect them to double that margin. Iowa’s D-line is one of the best in the country and will dominate, as will an offensive line that outweighs the UNI front by around 35 pounds per person. Kirk Ferentz is 4-2 ATS in neutral site games in his tenure.
3-Unit Play. Take New Mexico (-3) over Texas-El Paso (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
The Lobos dominated a better UTEP team last year at home, scoring a 13-point win as nine-point underdogs. That win marked their third in the past four meetings with the Miners. New Mexico outrushed UTEP 193-30 last year and brought back 18 starters from that team. I think they pound a Miners defense with just four starters back, a D that couldn’t stop them last year, and UNM controls this one from start to finish.
3-Unit Play. Take Duke (+4.5) over Connecticut (2 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
Now seems like as good of a time as any to snap a 20-game losing streak. And if not, we got the points. Duke brought back 11 offensive starters from a team that hung around with Wake Forest, Alabama, and Miami last year. The Huskies are going into this game with 24 freshman and sophomores on the two-deep and just 10 seniors in uniform. A bad Blue Devils team nearly beat a decent UConn squad back in 2004 (22-20) and I think they get the job done this time around. The moneyline on this game is nearly 30 cents light, meaning that we’re getting exceptional value on the home dog.
2-Unit Play. Take Boston College (-6) over Wake Forest (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
Last year’s wild ride by the Demon Deacons is over; and I’m sure B.C. is going to hammer that point home. Matt Ryan and Co. are primed for a big year and I think they open it with a bang. They are 5-3 ATS at home against ACC teams and are 3-0 as a favorite of -4.5 to -7.5 (avg. win: 18 points). They have struggled against Wake, dropping three of the last four, but I think that the Eagles’ nine returning defensive starters will trump the nine offensive starters that the Deacs brought back. Expect a late Ryan score to provide us with the cushion we need as the Eagles win 23-13.
2-Unit Play. Take Memphis (+3) over Mississippi (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 1)
The Tigers have lost their opener against the Rebels in each of the past two seasons, with the two losses coming by a combined seven points. Memphis brings back 16 returning starters and will be taking on an Ole Miss club that has absolutely no idea who its quarterback will be. This is a passionate contest and I think that there’s more certainty and stability with the Tigers. Memphis is 5-1 in its last six home openers and 2-1-1 ATS vs. Ole Miss since 2002.
2-Unit Play. Take Utah State (+7) over UNLV (8 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
Utah State brings back an incredible 19 starters this year, including 11 on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve beaten UNLV three straight times, including twice in the past three years, by an average score of 35-15. Also, Utah State is 9-1 against the Rebels, with the lone loss coming back in 1994. Somehow the Aggies are getting points at home against a team that’s lost 15 straight road games by an average of 23 points apiece. There is value here on a very live home dog and I think the Aggies win this one outright.
1-Unit Play. Take Syracuse (+3.5) over Washington (8 p.m., Friday, Aug. 31)
Orange fans should get ready for what should be one of their only positive moments this season. The Orange are 18-2-2 against the spread at home against a nonconference opponent and 10-4 ATS over its last 14 games. Washington has gone just 3-14-1 against nonconference opponents lately and are a putrid 4-17 straight up on the road over the past four years. This is going to be a tough atmosphere for the Huskies to perform in and I think that they get it done. Ty Willingham brought Notre Dame into the Loud House in 2003 and was demolished 38-12. It shouldn’t be that bad on Friday but I see SU winning this one outright. Also, this moneyline is about 20 cents light. That’s usually a solid indicator.
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 45.5 Washington at Syracuse (8 p.m., Friday, Aug. 31)
I think that these are two teams that are going to have trouble scoring points all season. A freshman quarterback leads both schools and in the first game of the year I don’t expect either to be particularly sharp. There has been an average of just 26.3 points scored in SU’s home opener over the past three years. Five the Orange’s last seven games have played ‘under’ the total while the Huskies were just 2-7-1 against the total last year.
