Pitchers Off Layoffs

[Biz]

This game started after I wanted to mention this, but I've made a lot of money for years on this angle.

Jordan Zimmerman the latest, pitching today after an injury layoff. It doesn't matter that they get rehab starts in the minors. When you see a pitcher starting that hasn't pitched in awhile due to injury, they are an auto fade..........especially if favored.

It also works if its season ending, and the start is the following year. I'll bookmark this thread, and post the next time I see one of these.

 

[sunshine11]

How did King Felix do when he came back last month after his injury. They won. LMAO

 

[razorbackpicks]

How did King Felix do when he came back last month after his injury. They won. LMAO

He gave up 4 in the first inning to be exact... I cashed the over on that one big.

 

[MoMoneyNoProblem]

How did King Felix do when he came back last month after his injury. They won. LMAO

You're gonna shoot down this angle based on one game?

 

[Biz]

How did King Felix do when he came back last month after his injury. They won. LMAO

Are you fucking retarded??

What was his line asshole? 5 ER on 10 hits in 6+ innings. It took a late game rally to tie and they won in extras. They were LOSING when he left the game.

Seattle was -180 also. You think taking back a tag like that, in that situation, is smart? I know I'm asking a dumbfuck that question, so don't answer.

I'm not surprised that you come off as one of the stupidest fucks on this board. Not to mention the string of idiotic threads you start.

How about you join our buddy Falcon, and go away?

I'm up 50+ units over the last 2 months, show me the people on this forum that have done that?

I've been here long enough, been successful in enough sports, to warrant a certain amount of respect for my handicapping.

So for you to come in here, and give us yet another example of why you are one of the biggest assholes on this board bar none, is beyond retarded.

Stay the fuck out of my threads.

 

[MuffJunkie]

Make sure u let us know when this happens i need a easy win im sick of biting my nails. Bol brotha

 

[bodogscarlet]

Greinke starting Tuesday off a month+ hiatus

 

[KingEleven]

You're gonna shoot down this angle based on one game?

took the words out of my mouth...

 

[Biz]

Greinke starting Tuesday off a month+ hiatus

Yup, thanks for pointing that one out. Absolutely qualifies.

 

[anones]

Something I have notice is that every pitcher that was traded had loss (but Moore who had a no decision) their first game. Just putting it out there. The next Pitcher will be Liriano but I am not sure if it qualified because he used to pitch with Martin catching for him before, so they should have some kind of quimistry...

 

[ChugsMcGee]

Not sure the parameters but I see Taijuan Walker back on mound for Seattle tommorrow after month and a day.

 

[Biz]

At around even money, he would qualify as a play against.

 

[Monkeebooger]

At around even money, he would qualify as a play against.

Hey Biz, appreciate the situational capping.

quesfion: does this only apply to pitchers that get injured during the season? I only ask because someone like Homer Bailey just came off injury and won his first start last week.

thank you!

 

[ChugsMcGee]

Zach Greinke day?

 

[sunshine11]

Not sure the parameters but I see Taijuan Walker back on mound for Seattle tommorrow after month and a day.

The games go over the total. Mariners choked it.

 

[paulfmf]

Excellent information, Biz.

 

[ChugsMcGee]

The games go over the total. Mariners choked it.

First...I think you meant Angels choked it. Second, yes the game did go over but not sure how that's relevant to the situation. What is relevant is in his first trip to the mound back, Mr. Walker went 4 IP, with 6ER, 2 walks and ZERO strikeouts...however the Angels bullpen shit the bed in the 7th.

So Biz - Obviously, I'm only looking at a single game for the moment, but is there more value to fading the returning pitcher for the first 5 (depending upon the reliability of the given team bullpen, I suppose, but that's sounds like a real headache to check historically.)

 

[sunshine11]

Yes. I meant Walker choked it. But the games seem to all go over.

 

[ChugsMcGee]

To piggy back on my last comment, like for Greinke's return game, I believe its safe to say the Mets have a significantly better BP than the Dbacks (regardless of some of Familia's post all-star game performances). Currently...well nevermind, because the current 5Dimes line for Mets/Matz fullgame is -127 and the 1st 5 is an identical -127. So my point is moot.

Point being, with a bullpen to the advantage of the non-returning pitchers team, I would think you would be "safe" taking 1st 5 or full game depending upon where the better price lies. BUT AGAIN...I'm basing this hypothesis off of one game and another unplayed game...so...yeah.

 

[Biz]

Your questions_

- Yes Bailey would have been a play against. He pitched very well. It works for injuries in a prior season and the 1st start is this year. If memory serves me, Jake Peavy had a season ending injury once, came back the next year and got knocked around as a fav. Happened several years ago.

- Totals. Haven't noticed, but it makes lot of sense. Pitcher gets knocked around, obviously runs are scored. Good idea on that one.

- First 5 doesn't sound like a bad idea either. I'm not a big First 5 guy, but again another good idea.

Playing against and OVER seems like a decent for these situations.

Looks like a play against Greinke tonight. Good discussion and some solid points about totals and First 5 plays. If you guys see pitchers off layoffs, post them here for discussion. Good luck tonight guys.