Nfl 2021-2022 football season previews-news-notes-picks-rumors !

[Udog]

NFL

Week 7

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Trend Report
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Denver @ Cleveland
Denver
Denver is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Denver is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games at home

Kansas City @ Tennessee
Kansas City
Kansas City is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Washington @ Green Bay
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Carolina @ NY Giants
Carolina
Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina

NY Jets @ New England
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Jets's last 11 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Jets's last 10 games on the road
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets

Atlanta @ Miami
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Miami
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Detroit @ LA Rams
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
LA Rams
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Philadelphia @ Las Vegas
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games at home
Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

Houston @ Arizona
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Arizona
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Chicago @ Tampa Bay
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games

Indianapolis @ San Francisco
Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis

New Orleans @ Seattle
New Orleans
New Orleans is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games on the road
New Orleans is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Seattle's last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games at home


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[Udog]

Tech Trends - Week 7
Bruce Marshall

 

[Udog]

Hot & Not Report - Week 7
Matt Blunt

Last week's piece brought some decent results, as the four teams to play 'on' from the hot section – rest disadvantage – split at 2-2 against the spread (ATS) while those non-conference home underdogs continue to be awful, going 0-3 both straight up (SU) and ATS to now sit at 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS this season.

Only the Miami Dolphins find themselves in that dreaded non-conference underdog role for Week 7, so bettors should keep that in mind for this week again.

But it's been the fact that these last two weeks of NFL action have largely been disastrous for the oddsmakers that continues to make headlines, as this run of favorites – and often highly popular favorites – have given the Week 5 and 6 overall results to the bettors in large part.

Personally I'll never have any sympathy for oddsmakers after results like that, but part of the reasoning behind it is that they themselves are too reliant on stats and analytics, especially on the defensive side of the football.

I mean just ask Alabama head coach Nick Saban, the days of dominant defensive football are long gone and haven't been around for years now. And the results of one simple NFL stat these past two weeks help show that.

Who's Hot and Not

Fading NFL teams with a better Opponent Yards Per Play number than their opponent has gone 22-8 ATS (73%) the last two weeks

This is a run that I fully expect to see some regression to the mean on eventually, but considering it's had such a high success rate these past two weeks, if bettors ever need something to maybe push them towards a side they are leaning on (or off a game completely), this could be it.

A run like this also shows just how fragile these new commonplace stats can be early on in a season, and more specifically on a week-to-week basis. After all, the NFL is all about “any given Sunday.”

But the Opponent Yards Per Play numbers as of Oct. 6 (Wednesday before Week 5) had Buffalo, Cleveland, Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Carolina, NY Jets, Las Vegas, San Francisco, New Orleans, Miami, LA Rams, Tennessee, Minnesota, Baltimore, and the NY Giants as the 16 NFL teams with the better overall numbers in this category.

Those teams went on to finish 4-12 ATS in Week 5 with Buffalo, New Orleans, LA Rams, and Tennessee being the only four to cover a spread.

This past week only had 14 games with the bye weeks arriving, but as of the OppYPP numbers last Wednesday, the 14 teams with the “advantage” were Buffalo, Carolina, Denver, New England, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Green Bay, Cincinnati, LA Rams, Pittsburgh, Washington, Houston, Miami, and the LA Chargers.

Those 14 teams went on to go 4-10 ATS for the week as it was Philadelphia, Green Bay, Cincinnati, and the LA Rams again being the four teams to get the cash.

That's a 22-8 ATS run (73.3 %) for these teams that are statistically worse defensively that is behind these stressful two weeks for oddsmakers as those behind the counter tend to find themselves rooting for defenses in general – whether it's fewer points scored for 'unders' or high-powered offenses not being able to score enough to cover the spreads as favorites. The general betting public tends to gravitate towards those favorites and high-powered offenses and they've had great success doing so of late. But again, this is probably a trend that could see significant regression eventually, if not sooner than later.

Yet, that being said, for those so inclined to follow up with this run, it suggests that we should be looking at fading these 12 teams (Philadelphia/Las Vegas game is omitted because both have identical 5.1 OppYPP):

Week 7 - Hot & Not Teams to Fade

Cleveland (-3.5) N.Y. Jets (+7)
Cincinnati (+6) L.A. Rams (-15)
Carolina (-2.5/3) Chicago (+13)
Green Bay (-9.5) Arizona (-17)
Tennessee (+4.5) San Francisco (-3.5)
Atlanta (-2.5) New Orleans (-5)

That's an eclectic group of teams to be going against in Week 17, and it includes the two biggest favorites on the board in the Los Angeles Rams (-15) and Arizona (-17).

After the results of the past two weeks, there is no doubt in my mind that oddsmakers shaded these numbers (especially) the way of the favorite because they can't handle many more weeks of the heavy chalk continuing to cover.

It's also going to be the first of two straight weeks where the Rams – the only team to buck this trend twice these last two weeks – are sizable favorites as they visit Houston in Week 8.

However, it's interesting to me that Arizona and Green Bay both show up as in a fade spot if this trend were to continue, as those two teams are also in that generally tough historical ATS spot of playing before

Thursday Night Football.

The Packers and Cardinals are each asked to win by double digits this week to cover their respective point spreads, and while both are at home, it's fading the undefeated Arizona Cardinals that I do see as the much better betting option of the two.

For one, this Cardinals game against the lowly Texans is sandwiched between highly anticipated games between Cleveland and Green Bay.

The Browns may not be as good as everyone expected them to be in the summer, but for a rising team like Arizona that's “the new kid on the block”, both of these games are litmus test-type games for the undefeated Cardinals.

It's just human nature for those guys to be more excited and focused for those two contests, as this Houston Texans organization has been a disaster since the spring when quarterback Deshaun Watson's legal issues came to the surface.

You really think an undefeated Cardinals team is going to have the same level of focus and intensity this week for a game they are expected to win by 3+ scores? I certainly don't, not with what's on tap for them.

Secondly, the flip side of this coin means supporting that same disastrous Houston Texans organization that literally nobody wants to back and for good reason. That's something I view as a huge positive in this scenario, as really the only “general” logical reason not to back Arizona this week is because the point spread is so big.

After all, the Texans have scored three or less points in two of their past three games and have lost five straight overall since beating Jacksonville in Week 1. You probably couldn't get most of your friends to back the Texans with your own money right now, and those have long been plays I've got no problem gravitating towards. Be comfortable being uncomfortable.

The three points Houston scored in Week 6 also puts them in that Total Talk angle I've discussed in recent weeks as being the lowest scoring team from the previous week.

Playing the 'over' in those games is now a perfect 5-0 this year after the Raiders easily went 'over' the number in Week 6, and it suggests we should expect points in this Houston/Arizona game too.

Heck, Houston was in this same lowest-scoring team role a few weeks ago and responded with a 25-22 loss ('over' cashed easily) to New England in a game they should have won SU. It was also an easy ATS win for the Texans there too.

Facing Arizona is a much tougher challenge than the Patriots, but I don't think the ATS or O/U results will be any different in the end. Interested to see if this spread on the undefeated Cardinals continues to climb, but taking a piece of the +17 now with Houston and saving some ammo just in case we see this spread approach the -20 range is my method this week.

Who should I bet?

Houston Texans
Baltimore Ravens
New York Giants

Carolina Fade

The other teams from that list of potential fades for Week 7 that have attracted my attention early in the week are the Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals.

Carolina's 3-0 SU and ATS start in September is nothing but a distant memory now as the Panthers have gone 0-3 both SU and ATS in their three games in October since then.

The Panthers are doing enough statistically to look like a decent team this year, but they've got “Mirage” written all over them in my view. That 3-0 start came thanks to playing the Jets and Houston in two of those games, and catching the Saints in Week 2 after their big, emotional win over the Packers in Week 1.

That's three games where you've got one great spot and two awful teams contributing to that record so there was always going to be some element of smoke and mirrors to that start. The Giants aren't exactly incomparable to the likes of the Jets and Texans, but this is more about fading the Panthers than it is about finding support for the Giants for me and I'll live with the results.

Fake Stripes

Cincinnati is a team that like the Cardinals coming up in Week 8, have a sort of litmus test-type game this week when they visit the Ravens.

It's a battle for 1st place in the AFC North right now, and with Cincinnati being the “new kid on the block” in this scenario, I'm not sure that their offensive line that was so disastrous a year ago will be able to hold up for 60 minutes against Baltimore.

The Bengals have also arguably played one “good” opponent themselves in recent weeks (Green Bay), as they've faced Chicago, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Green Bay, and Detroit these past five weeks. Eliminate the Packers from that equation and the combined SU record of those teams currently sits at 7-17 SU. That's got some smoke and mirrors qualities to it as well.

Baltimore dominated the Bengals in the lone meeting against QB Joe Burrow last year (27-3 in Baltimore), and the Ravens are also in a decent situational spot as well given that this is their third straight home game. The Ravens own defensive numbers are also likely skewed negatively from those first two games vs Las Vegas and KC where they allowed 30+ points in each, further exemplifying how convoluted an over-reliance on team statistics can really be at this time of year. Baltimore's held three of their last four opponents to 17 or less points overall, the most impressive being holding the Chargers to just 6 points on Sunday.

Put it all together and it could be a rude wake up call for the Bengals in Baltimore this week.

 

[Udog]

Cleveland failed to cover the spread in seven straight games when facing the AFC as the favorite.
Denver has lost four of its last five road games when facing the AFC.
Cleveland has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last six games when playing on a Thursday.
The point total has gone OVER in three of the last four games played between both teams.

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 21
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


DEN at CLE 08:20 PM
CLE -1.5
U 40.0
+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL OCTOBER RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS:


NFL WORLD SPORTS BETTING CHAMPIONSHIP


WLT Pct Units Rank


ATS Picks ........23-19-00 ..........53.65%..........+ 10.50


O/U Picks ........14-22-01 ..........38.88%...........- 51.00


Totals..............37-41-01...........47.34%...........- 40.50


BEST BETS:


ATS Picks...........21-13-00............. 61.76% .............+33.50


O/U Picks...........11-20-00..............35.48%..............- 55.00


Totals................31-33-00...............48.43%..............- 21.50




UPDATED ON 10/21/2021

 

[Udog]

Baltimore has won six straight home games.
Baltimore has covered the spread in eight of its last nine divisional games.
Cincinnati has gone UNDER the point total in five straight games.
Baltimore has covered the spread in three straight games when facing Cincinnati
The point total has gone UNDER in three of the last four meetings.


Carolina has covered the spread in nine straight road games.
New York has gone UNDER the point total in six of its last seven home games.
New York has lost five of its last six games.
The underdog has covered the spread in four straight games between both teams.
Carolina has won three straight games when facing New York.


Green Bay as won 16 of its last 18 home games.
Green Bay has covered the spread in five straight games.
Washington has gone OVER the point total in four of its last five games.
Washington has covered the spread in three straight games when facing Green Bay.
The point total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings.
The home team has won four of the last five meetings.


Tennessee has won four of its last five games when facing Kansas City as the underdog.
Tennessee has gone OVER the point total in eight of its last nine games when playing as the underdog.
Kansas City has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games when facing the AFC.


Miami has lost five straight games.
Miami has gone OVER the point total in five straight Week 7 games.
Atlanta has covered the spread in five of its last six games when facing the AFC.


New England has won 11 straight games when facing New York.
New York has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games.
New England has gone UNDER the point total in eight of its last 10 home games.
New England has covered the spread in three of its last four games when facing New York.


Detroit has gone UNDER the point total in four straight games.
Detroit has lost 10 straight games.
Los Angeles has covered the spread in five of its last six games when facing the NFC as the favorite.
Detroit has failed to cover the spread in four straight games when facing Los Angeles.
The home team has won four of the last five meetings.


Philadelphia has seen the road team win six of its last seven games.
Las Vegas has gone OVER the point total in six of its last seven home games.
Las Vegas has failed to cover the spread in six straight games when playing as the favorite.
Philadelphia has gone UNDER the point total in four of its last six games.


Tampa Bay has won 13 of its last 14 games.
Chicago has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games when playing as the underdog.
Chicago has gone UNDER the point total in five straight games.
The home team has won four straight meetings.


Houston has lost 17 straight games when playing as a +7-point underdog or more.
Arizona has covered the spread in four straight games.
Houston has gone UNDER the point total in four of its last five road games.
Houston has lost five of its last six games.


Indianapolis has won eight straight games when facing a team with a losing record.
San Francisco has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games when playing as the favorite.
Indianapolis has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six road games.
Indianapolis has covered the spread in four of its last six games.

 

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 7
Vince Akins

NFL Play ON ATS Trend
Matchup: Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Bengals are 13-0 ATS since December 2004 on the road coming off a road game where they scored at least 24 points.

NFL Play AGAINST ATS Trend
Matchup: Carolina at N.Y. Giants (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Panthers are 0-13 ATS since October 10, 2016 as a favorite facing an opponent under .350 on the season.

NFL Play OVER OU Trend
Matchup: Detroit at L.A. Rams (4:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Lions are 11-0 OU since October 20, 2019 when they rushed for less than 85 yards last game.

NFL Play UNDER OU Trend
Matchup: Washington at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Packers are 0-10-2 OU since 2018 when the total is under 49 and they threw for no more than 225 passing yards last game.

 

[Udog]

 

[vinnyvegas]

Thx for posting. SNF game weather gonna be very interesting. If not downright awful. Watching total for sure that one

 

[Udog]

Thx for posting. SNF game weather gonna be very interesting. If not downright awful. Watching total for sure that one

Last I saw, it had dropped by 2 points froom open. Good luck today, vinny!

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 24
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


WAS at GB 01:00 PM
GB -8.5
U 47.5
+500 +500


ATL at MIA 01:00 PM
MIA +1.5
O 47.5
+500 +500


NYJ at NE 01:00 PM
NYJ +7.5
U 42.0
+500 +500


CIN at BAL 01:00 PM
BAL -6.5
U 46.0
+500 +500


KC at TEN 01:00 PM
TEN +4.0
O 58.0
+500 +500


CAR at NYG 01:00 PM
NYG +3.0
U 43.5
+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL OCTOBER RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS:


NFL WORLD SPORTS BETTING CHAMPIONSHIP


WLT Pct Units Rank


ATS Picks ........25-22-00 ..........53.19%..........+ 4.00


O/U Picks ........17-23-01 ..........42.50%...........- 41.50


Totals..............42-45-01...........48.27%...........- 37.50


BEST BETS:


ATS Picks...........23-16-00............. 58.97% .............+27.00


O/U Picks...........14-21-00..............40.00%..............- 45.50


Totals................37-37-00...............50.00%..............- 18.50




UPDATED ON 10/24/2021


SORRY DID NOT POST LATE AFTERNOON GAMES OR SUNDAY NIGHT ACTION DUE TO PART OF A
OAK TREE FALLING ON THE HOUSE AND BREAKING A FEW WINDOWS. THANK GOD I WASN'T SITTING
NEAR THE COMPUTER AS THERE WAS GLASS EVERYWHERE. HELL I THOUGHT IT WAS LIGHTING
HITTING THE HOUSE AND WINDOWS...WHAT A EXPLOSION !!!.......:topic::topic::topic:

 

[Udog]

New Orleans has won 16 of its last 17 games when playing in October.
Seattle has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games when facing the NFC.
New Orleans has covered the spread in three straight games.
The point total has gone UNDER in three of the last four meetings.

 

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 7
Joe Williams

Overall Notes


The largest underdogs to win straight up

Bengals +6 (ML +230) at Ravens, 41-17
Titans +4 (ML +175) vs. Chiefs, 27-3
Colts +3 (ML +145) at 49ers, 30-18
Giants +3 (ML +130) vs. Panthers, 25-3

The largest favorites to cover

Cardinals (-20) vs. Texans, 31-5
Buccaneers (-12) vs. Bears, 38-3
Packers (-8.5) vs. Washington, 24-10
Patriots (-7) vs. Jets, 54-13

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Chicago Bears-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game appeared to be a certain OVER. After the first quarter, QB Tom Brady had two touchdown strikes, including his 600th regular-season TD pass to become the only player in NFL history to accomplish the feat. The Bucs led 21-0, and OVER bettors were feeling good.

In the second quarter, Brady hit WR Mike Evans with two more touchdown strikes to take a 35-3 lead into the room after 30 minutes. With a total of just 47, surely OVER bettors were starting to fire up the shots and celebrate a winning ticket.

Not so fast. The third quarter was completely scoreless, and Tampa Bay managed just a field goal in the fourth quarter for a total of just 41 points, winning 38-3. To make matters worse, RB Ronald Jones II was stuffed at the 1-yard line on fourth down, as the Bears D bowed their backs and held him out late in the third quarter. That likely was the difference, keeping the total UNDER.
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Kansas City Chiefs-Tennessee Titans game had a total of 59 points. This wasn't a bad beat, as the Chiefs were beaten soundly. But, if you bet the Chiefs and/or the OVER, you were left scratching your head.

The Titans entered Sunday's game allowing 26.7 PPG, including 31 last week in a win against the Buffalo Bills. Tennessee was coming in on a short week, and surely the Chiefs would re-discover their offense, right?

Wrong. Kansas City was blanked in the first half, and ended up with just a mere field goal on the day. The game marked the first time with QB Patrick Mahomes as a starter that the Chiefs failed to score a touchdown. In fact, RB Derrick Henry opened the scoring with a touchdown pass to TE MyCole Pruitt, equaling the amount of TD strikes from his own QB Ryan Tannehill, and throwing more touchdowns than Mahomes. New England Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne also had a touchdown strike against the New York Jets, eclipsing Mahomes, that's how bad of a day it was for the latter.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 7 was in the Denver Broncos-Cleveland Browns (40) game on Thursday night. With QB Baker Mayfield and RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt out for the home side, the books set the line super low. It wasn't low enough. Cleveland fired out to a 10-0 lead, and that's where things stood at halftime after a scoreless second. The two teams exchanged touchdowns in the third, but only the Broncos scored in the fourth quarter, as Cleveland hung on for a low-scoring 17-14 win behind backup QB Case Keenum.

Ths second lowest number on the board was the Indianapolis Colts-San Francisco 49ers (41.5) prime time game on Sunday. The game was played in a driving rain with a low-pressure system coming ashore in the Bay Area. It didn't befront the two teams, as they combined for 19 points in the first quarter. We had just 13 total points in the second and third quarters, with the Colts scoring all of those points. It was 20-12 heading to the final quarter, so OVER bettors needed some help. They got it, as the teams posted a total of 16 points to inch the total across the finish line.

The highest total on the board was the aforementioned Chiefs-Titans (59) game, which never threatened the OVER. The only other total on the board over 50 was in the Detroit Lions-Los Angeles Rams (50.5) showdown between QBs Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford. The two were traded for each other in the offseason. Goff was back in L.A., and his team led 19-17 heading to the final quarter. The Rams outscored the Lions 11-0 in the final quarter, and a Goff interception in the end zone killed OVER bettors.

In the primetime games, the OVER/UNDER was 1-1, with the New Orleans Saints-Seattle Seahawks (42) still pending. That's now 11-7-1 (61.1%) through 19 primetime games. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 8

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Titans (5-2) worked over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7 by a 27-3 score, winning and covering a second consecutive marquee game in the AFC as home 'dogs. Now, perhaps the books will show Tennessee some respect.

Tennessee topped the Colts (3-4) by a 25-16 score in Nashville in Week 3 asthe UNDER connected. Since that loss, which dropped the Colts to 0-3, Indy has really pieced it together. They have won three of the past four, covering all four games, and they blew a game on SNF at Baltimore which they easily could have won. The OVER is 3-1 in the previous four for Indianapolis, too.

While the Titans covered at home against the Colts in Week 3, they're still 6-14 ATS in the past 20 meetings, and just 3-7 ATS in the previous 10 trips to Indiana's capital. The UNDER is 14-6 in the previous 20 meetings in Indy, too.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Panthers (3-4) opened the season 3-0 SU/ATS, but they have lost and failed to cover each of the previous four. The Panthers hit rock-bottom in a 25-3 loss at N.Y. Giants Sunday, a game which saw QB Sam Darnold benched for QB PJ Walker.

The Falcons (3-3) started out 0-2 SU/ATS, but they're now 3-1 SU/ATS across the past four outings. Atlanta had a come-from-behind win in Miami, dropping the Dolphins 30-28 with a field goal at the buzzer. The Falcons offense is averaging 29.0 PPG across the past three, hitting the OVER in each.

Carolina is 8-2 ATS across its past 10 road games, and 6-1 ATS across the previous seven as a road underdog. Atlanta is just 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the division, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven as a home fave. Howevr, the Falcons are 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, and 5-1 ATS in the past six at home vs. CAR.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Steelers (3-3) and Browns (4-3) met three times last season, with the Browns winning a decisive Wild-Card game in Pittsburgh to exorcise a bunch of demons.

Pittsburgh earned a 23-20 win in overtime in Week 6 on SNF, winning two straight before going into the bye. Cleveland was without the triumvirate of Mayfield, Chubb and Hunt, but still went on to a 17-14 win over the Denver Broncos on Thursday night behind Keenum and RB D'Ernest Johnson.

Pittsburgh has covered just one of its past five inside the AFC North, while Cleveland is 10-25-1 ATS in the previous 36 divisional games. For some reason, Week 8 has been a bugaboo for the Browns, as they're 0-6 ATS in the previous six Week 8 games.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Dolphins (1-6) lost for the sixth straight game in Week 7 against the Falcons. The losing skid started back in Week 2 with a 35-0 blasting from the Bills (4-2) at Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida.

Buffalo suffered a hard-fought 34-31 loss at Tennessee on Monday night before its bye, snapping a 4-0 ATS run in the process.

Miami has not only lost six in a row, but they're just 1-5 ATS during the run, with the OVER going 4-1 across the past five. A lack of offense and a poor defense has the Dolphins reeling. Miami has allowed 29.6 PPG, ranking 31st in the NFL.

The Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in their past nine trips to Buffalo, with the OVER 6-0 in the previous six in western New York. The OVER is 5-1 in the past six meetings, although the UNDER cashed in the first battle this season in SoFla.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Buccaneers (6-1) belted the Chicago Bears 38-3 in Week 7, as Brady made NFL history yet again. Tampa covered as 12.5-point favorites, now 3-0 ATS as a double-digit fave in the past three such situations.

The Saints played on Monday night in Seattle, so they're coming home and playing on a short week after a cross-country trip.

Tampa is 4-1 ATS in the previous five inside the division, but they're 0-4 ATS in the past four as a road favorite. New Orleans has covered seven of the past 10 inside the NFC South, and they're 7-2 ATS in the previous nine as a road 'dog.

New Orleans has been kryptonite to Tampa, going 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings in this series.

 

[CNOTES]

MONDAY, OCTOBER 25
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


NO at SEA 08:15 PM
SEA +5.5
O 41.5
+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL OCTOBER RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS:

NFL WORLD SPORTS BETTING CHAMPIONSHIP

WLT Pct Units Rank

ATS Picks ........26-23-00 ..........53.06%..........+ 3.50

O/U Picks ........18-24-01 ..........42,85%...........- 42.00

Totals..............44-47-01...........48.35%...........- 38.50

BEST BETS:

ATS Picks...........24-17-00............. 58.53% .............+26.50

O/U Picks...........15-22-00..............40.54%..............- 46.00

Totals................39-39-00...............50.00%..............- 19.50


UPDATED ON 10/28/2021

 

[CNOTES]

DENVER is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse in the last 2 seasons.

CINCINNATI is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return since 1992.

CAROLINA is 39-19 ATS (18.1 Units) in road games vs. bad defenses (>24 PPG) since 1992.

WASHINGTON is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after a loss in the last 3 seasons.

KANSAS CITY is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games

ATLANTA is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) after gaining 275 or more passing yards in 3 straight games since 1992.

NEW ENGLAND is 24-7 ATS (16.3 Units) after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game

DETROIT is 16-3 ATS (12.7 Units) in road games after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games since 1992.

LAS VEGAS are 16-46 ATS (-34.6 Units) in home games vs. losing teams since 1992.

CHICAGO is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in road games vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 29 or more points/game since 1992.

HOUSTON is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992.

INDIANAPOLIS are 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) over the last 2 seasons.

NEW ORLEANS are 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday games
Cincinnati (4-2) @ Baltimore (5-1)
— Cincinnati won three of its last four games.
— Bengals have had a TD play of 31+ yards in all six games.
— Cincy outscored last four opponents 66-30 in 2nd half.
— Last three years, Bengals are 8-9 ATS as a road underdog.
— Cincy’s two losses were both by three points.
— Last five Bengal games stayed under the total.

— Baltimore won last four games, scoring 28.6 ppg.
— Four of their six games were decided by 1 or 2 points, or in OT.
— Last 6+ years, Ravens are 18-22-2 ATS as home favorites.
— Last 2+ years, Ravens are 17-9-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Last four years, Ravens are 4-8 ATS in AFC North home games.
— Last four games, Ravens outscored foes 47-23 in 2nd half.

— Ravens won last five series games, last three by total of 114-19.
— Bengals lost last three visits to Baltimore, by 3-6-24 points.

Carolina (3-3) @ NY Giants (1-5)
— Carolina lost last three games after 3-0 start, giving up 30.3 ppg.
— Under Rhule, Panthers are 8-2 ATS on the road.
— Carolina outscored opponents 79-37 in first half.
— Last three games, Panthers were outscored 60-35 in second half.
— Under is 4-2 in Carolina games this season.
— Carolina is 15-12 ATS last 27 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Panthers blocked a punt for a TD last week.
— NFC South road favorites are 2-5 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Giants lost last two weeks, giving up 44-38 points.
— Giants lost first three home games, by 14-3-27 points.
— Big Blue is 4-16 ATS last 20 games as a home underdog.
— Giants are 8-15-1 ATS last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Giants have been outscored 58-12 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Opponents have started 8 drives in Giant territory (minus-7).
— NFC East home underdogs are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Carolina won last three series games, scoring 38-38-33 points.
— Carolina won four of six meetings with Giants in New Jersey.
— Panthers’ coach Rhule was a Giants’ assistant in 2012.
— Teams’ last meeting was in 2016.

Washington (2-4) @ Green Bay (5-1)
— Washington lost 3 of last 4 games, giving up 33-31 points last 2 games.
— Washington allowed 34.3 ppg in its last four games.
— Washington opponents converted 52-90 on third down (57.8%).
— Last 3+ years, Washington is 12-9-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last 2+ years, Washington is 8-15-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Four of last five Washington games went over the total.
— NFC East teams are 7-1 ATS in non-divisional road games.

— Green Bay won last five games (4-0-1 ATS), scoring 28.3 ppg.
— Last three weeks, Green Bay ran ball for 139.3 yards/game.
— Packers are 2-0 SU at home TY, winning by 18-10 points.
— Green Bay is 12-6 ATS last 18 games as a home favorite.
— Last three Packer games stayed under the total.
— Last four games, Packers have 21 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 10.

— Teams split last six series games.
— Washington last last five games in Lambeau, three by 18+ points.
— Washington’s last win in Green Bay was 1986.

Kansas City (3-3) @ Tennessee (4-2)
— KC scored 31+ points in four of its six games.
— Chiefs are scoring 36 ppg on road (2-1 SU).
— Chiefs have given up 29+ points in five of six games.
— KC has scored 23 TD’s on 54 drives this season.
— Chiefs turned ball over 14 times in last five games (-10)
— Four of six Chief games went over the total.
— KC has 24 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 30.
— AFC West road favorites are 4-1 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Tennessee won four of last five games, scoring 30.6 ppg.
— Last four weeks, Titans ran ball for 179.8 yards/game.
— Titans had 7 turnovers first three games, only one in last three.
— Tennessee have only two TD plays longer than 18 yards.
— Last four years, Titans are 7-3 ATS as home underdogs.
— Over is 4-1 in Tennessee’s last five games.
— AFC South home underdogs are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Titans won four of last five series games.
— Teams split two playoff meetings, in ’17/’19.
— Teams split last four series games in Nashville.
— Three of last four series games were decided by 3 or less points.

Atlanta (2-3) @ Miami (1-5)
— Last ten years, Atlanta is 7-3 ATS coming off a bye.
— Falcons have been outscored 90-45 in 2nd half of games.
— Last two games, Atlanta converted 19-30 3rd down plays.
— Last 4+ years, Falcons are 13-21 ATS in true road games.
— Last 3+ years, Atlanta is 9-15 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Last 4+ years, Atlanta is 5-12 ATS vs AFC teams.
— NFC South favorites are 4-9 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Miami lost last five games, giving up 32.2 ppg.
— Miami has only ten TD’s this season, on 58 drives.
— Last 5+ years, Dolphins are 14-9-1 ATS as home dogs.
— Miami has given up 39 plays of 20+ yards, has only 24 themselves.
— Last 4+ years, Miami is 7-10 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Three of last four Dolphin games went over the total.

— Dolphins are 9-4 against Atlanta, winning 27-23/20-17 in last two.
— Falcons are 2-6 in Miami; last visit here was 2013.

NJ Jets (1-4) @ New England (2-4)
— Jets are 0-2 in true games, losing 19-14 @ Carolina, 26-0 @ Denver.
— Jets have been outscored 75-13 in first half.
— Last six years, Jets 11-23-2 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last four years, Jets were 3-8-1 ATS in AFC East road games.
— Last 12 years, Jets are 4-8 ATS coming off a bye.
— Rookie QB’s struggle; they’re 8-18 ATS so far this season.

— Patriots lost three of their last four games.
— Patriots’ two wins are both over rookie QB’s.
— New England scored 25-29 last two games, after 17.8 ppg in first four.
— Last four games, Patriots are minus-6 in turnovers.
— Last three games, New England allowed 18 plays of 20+ yards.
— Belichick’s career record without Brady: 64-76 SU

— Patriots beat Jets 25-6 in Swamp Stadium, in Week 2.
— Jets outgained NE 336-260, but were minus-4 in turnovers.
— New England won last 12 series games; 8 of last 9 were by 14+ points.
— Jets lost last 10 visits to Foxboro; their last win here was in ’10 playoffs.

 

[CNOTES]

Detroit (0-6) @ LA Rams (5-1)
— Detroit is winless, but is 3-3 against the spread.
— Last four games, Lions were outscored 47-6 in first half.
— Detroit gave up at least 7.3 yards/pass attempt in every game.
— Last three years, Detroit is 6-8-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last four Detroit games stayed under the total.
— GM of Lions (Holmes) worked for the Rams the last 18 years.

— Rams won last two games, scoring 26-38 points.
— LA threw for 8.5+ yards/pass attempt in 4 of 6 games.
— Last two weeks, Rams converted 4-21 on 3rd down— not good.
— Last three years, LA is 6-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Over is 5-1 in Rams’ games.
— Last 11 years, Rams are 7-4 ATS as double digit favorites.

— These two QB’s were traded for each other last winter.
— Teams split last ten series games.
— Lions lost 41-34/21-14 in last two road series games.

Philadelphia (2-4) @ Las Vegas (4-2)
— Eagles lost four of their last five games.
— Last four years, Eagles are 6-9 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last two games, Philly converted 7-23 on 3rd down.
— Last two games, Philly averaged only 4.7/4.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Last five weeks, Eagles were outscored 84-36 in first half.
— NFC East teams are 7-1 ATS in non-divisional road games.

— Raiders ended chaotic week LW with 34-24 win at Denver.
— Raiders threw for 348 yards LW, were +4 in turnovers.
— Raiders are 4-2, but trailed 14-0 or 14-3 in four of six games.
— Las Vegas outscored opponents 96-67 in 2nd half/OT of games.
— Raiders are 2-5 ATS in last seven games as home favorites.
— Since moving to Las Vegas, over is 8-1-1 in Raider home games.
— AFC West teams are 1-6 ATS in non-divisional home games.

— Philly won three of last four series games.
— Eagles are 2-3 vs Raiders in Los Angeles/Oakland- they won last visit to Oakland 49-29 in 2013- Nick Foles threw seven TD passes.

Houston (1-5) @ Arizona (6-0)
— Texans lost last five games, giving up 30.2 ppg.
— Houston is 0-3 on road, losing 21-31, 0-40, 3-31 (1-2 ATS).
— Last 3+ years, Texans are 10-8 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last five games, Houston was outscored 95-17 in 2nd half.
— Last three games, Texans are minus-7 in turnovers (9-2)
— Rookie QB’s struggle; they’re 8-18 ATS so far this season.
— First-time head coaches are 17-23 ATS this season.
— AFC South road underdogs are 6-1 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Arizona won its first six games (5-1 ATS), scoring 32.3 ppg.
— Cardinals have 22 TD’s on 61 drives this season.
— Arizona has 157 points on 27 drives to red zone (5.81)
— Last 11 years, Arizona is 0-2 ATS as double digit favorites.
— Arizona has 26 plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 18.
— Last four games, Cardinals are +8 in turnovers.
— Cardinals are only unbeaten team in NFL.

— JJ Watt, DeAndre Hopkins are former Texans’ stars.
— Home side won all four series games.
— Texans lost 28-21/27-24 in two visits to Arizona.

Chicago (3-3) @ Tampa Bay (5-1)
— Chicago allowed 34-26-24 in losses, 17 or less in wins.
— All three of their losses this year were by 10+ points.
— Last three games, Bears ran ball for 188-143-140 yards.
— Chicago has been outscored 88-46 in second half of games.
— Last three years, Chicago is 5-8 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last two games, Bears converted 12-43 third down plays.
— Last five Chicago games stayed under the total.

— Bucs gave up 29.3 ppg to veteran #1 QB’s (Prescott, Ryan, Stafford).
—.Bucs gave up 18.7 ppg to suspect/backup QB’s (Jones/Brissett/Hurts)
— Bucs won their home games this year, by 2-23-28 points.
— Buccaneers have 23 TD’s on 63 drives this season.
— Last five games, Tampa Bay is +6 in turnovers.
— Average total in Tampa Bay’s first five games: 56.5
— Over is 4-2 in Tampa Bay games this season.
— Bucs played on Thursday LW, had extra time to prep/rest.
— NFC South home teams are 2-5 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Home side won last four series games.
— Buccaneers lost 20-19 in Chicago LY.
— Chicago won five of last seven series games.
— Bears lost 36-10/29-7 in last two visits to Tampa.

Indianapolis (2-4) @ San Francisco (2-3)
— Colts covered four of their last five games.
— Indy is 9-7-1 ATS last 17 games as road underdogs.
— Last two games, Colts averaged 10.5/9.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Colts have 11 takeaways in last five games (+7)
— Colts are 10-3-1 ATS last 14 games vs NFC opponents.
— Last three weeks, Colts outscored opponents 27-9 in first half.
— AFC South road underdogs are 6-1 ATS in non-divisional games.

— 49ers lost last three games, giving up 25 ppg.
— Last two games, SF converted 5-25 third down plays.
— Niners are 0-7 ATS last seven games as home favorites.
— 49ers lost both home games, 30-28 (Green Bay), 28-21 (Seattle).
— 49ers had 8 plays of 20+ yards in opener, total of only 11 last four games.
— Last four years, 49ers were 11-5 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— Niners have only two takeaways (-6) in first five games.
— Last two years, 49ers won their post-bye game (31-3/23-20).

— Colts won last four series games, by average of 25-12.
— Indy won 28-3/27-7 in last two visits to Santa Clara.

Monday game
New Orleans (3-2) @ Seattle (2-4)
— This is Saints sixth game, in six different cities.
— Saints scored 38-28-33 points in wins, 7-21 in losses.
— Underdogs won/covered four of their five games.
— Saints scored TD’s on 13 of 14 red zone drives.
— Last six years, Saints are 16-7 ATS as road favorites.
— Last 12 years, NO is 8-3-1 ATS in post-bye games.
— New Orleans has 10 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 21.
— NFC South road teams are 4-1 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Seahawks lost four of their last five games.
— Smith is 12-20 as NFL starter; 29 of those games were in 2013-14.
— Seattle is 0-2 at home (33-30 OT/Titans, 26-17 Rams).
— Last 11 years, Seattle is 10-4 ATS as home underdogs.
— Seattle has 29 plays of 20+ yards; they’ve given up 22.
— Last three games, opponents converted 9-38 on third down.
— Third straight primetime game for Seattle.

— Teams split 16 series games.
— Saints lost three of last four visits to Seattle, winning last visit 33-27 in ’19.