Nfl 2021-2022 football season previews-news-notes-picks-rumors !

[Udog]

NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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LA Rams @ Seattle
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games on the road
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Seattle's last 13 games

NY Jets @ Atlanta
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Jets's last 8 games
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Atlanta is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing NY Jets

New England @ Houston
New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New England's last 12 games
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games

Detroit @ Minnesota
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing at home against Detroit

New Orleans @ Washington
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing New Orleans

Miami @ Tampa Bay
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Miami is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami

Green Bay @ Cincinnati
Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

Denver @ Pittsburgh
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games
Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

Philadelphia @ Carolina
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Carolina
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games at home

Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 9 games on the road
Tennessee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Jacksonville's last 11 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games

Chicago @ Las Vegas
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Las Vegas
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Las Vegas's last 8 games

Cleveland @ LA Chargers
Cleveland
Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Chargers
LA Chargers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Chargers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

San Francisco @ Arizona
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games at home
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

NY Giants @ Dallas
NY Giants
NY Giants is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants's last 11 games
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing NY Giants

Buffalo @ Kansas City
Buffalo
Buffalo is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Kansas City
Kansas City is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo

Indianapolis @ Baltimore
Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis


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[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 5






NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 7

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LA RAMS (3 - 1) at SEATTLE (2 - 2) - 10/7/2021, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 41-65 ATS (-30.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 48-73 ATS (-32.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 4-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 7
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


LAR at SEA 08:20 PM
LAR -2.0
U 54.0
+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL OCTOBER RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS:


NFL WORLD SPORTS BETTING CHAMPIONSHIP


WLT Pct Units Rank


ATS Picks ........08-07-00 ..........53.33%...........+ 1.50


O/U Picks ........04-06-00 ..........40.00%...........- 13.00


Totals..............12-13-00...........48.00%...........- 11.50


BEST BETS:


ATS Picks...........06-05-00............. 54.54% .............+ 2.50


O/U Picks...........02-05-00..............28.57%..............-17.50


Totals................08-10-00...............44.44%..............-15.00




UPDATED ON 10/07/2021

 

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 5
Vince Akins

NFL Play ON ATS Trend
Matchup: Denver at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Broncos are 11-0 ATS since October 27, 2019 coming off a game where they scored less than 17 points.

NFL Play AGAINST ATS Trend
Matchup: Philadelphia at Carolina (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Panthers are 0-12 ATS since October 10, 2016 as a favorite facing an opponent under .350 on the season.

NFL Play OVER OU Trend
Matchup: Philadelphia at Carolina (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Eagles are 10-0 OU since December 2012 on the road coming off back-to-back losses by at least seven points.

NFL Play UNDER OU Trend
Matchup: Cleveland at L.A. Chargers (4:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Browns are 0-13 OU since November 2003 coming off a game as a favorite that went under by at least 13 points.

Super System of the Week
Matchup: N.Y. Jets vs. Atlanta from London, England (9:30 a.m. ET)

-- Favorites are 26-11-1 ATS in regular season neutral site (international) games. Active on Atlanta.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 5

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 10
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


DET at MIN 01:00 PM
DET +10.0
O 49.5
+500 +500


GB at CIN 01:00 PM
GB -2.5
O 50.5
+500 +500


TEN at JAC 01:00 PM
TEN -4.0
U 49.0
+500 +500


NO at WAS 01:00 PM
U 43.5
+500


DEN at PIT 01:00 PM
DEN -2.0
O 39.5
+500 +500


MIA at TB 01:00 PM
MIA +11.0
U 48.0
+500 +500


NE at HOU 01:00 PM
HOU +7.5
+500


PHI at CAR 01:00 PM
PHI +2.5
O 46.0
+500 +500


CHI at LV 04:05 PM
CHI +5.5
O 46.0
+500 +500


CLE at LAC 04:05 PM
CLE +2.5
O 46.5
+500 +500


SF at ARI 04:25 PM
SF +5.5
O 48.5
+500 +500


NYG at DAL 04:25 PM
NYG +7.5
O 52.5
+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY NIGHT BAILOUT !


BUF at KC 08:20 PM
KC -2.5
U 56.5
+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL OCTOBER RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS:


NFL WORLD SPORTS BETTING CHAMPIONSHIP


WLT Pct Units Rank


ATS Picks ........14-13-00 ..........51.85%...........- 1.50


O/U Picks ........07-15-00 ..........31.81%...........- 47.50


Totals..............21-28-00...........42.85%...........- 49.00


BEST BETS:


ATS Picks...........12-11-00............. 52.17% .............- 0.50


O/U Picks...........05-14-00..............26.31%..............-52.00


Totals................17-25-00...............40.47%..............-52.50




UPDATED ON 10/10/2021

 

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

Overall Notes


The largest underdogs to win straight up

Bears +5.5 (ML +200) at Raiders, 20-9
Bills +3 (ML +125) at Chiefs, 38-20
Eagles +2.5 (ML +125) at Panthers, 21-18

The largest favorites to cover

Buccaneers (-11) vs. Dolphins, 45-17
Cowboys (-7.5) vs. Giants, 44-20
Cardinals (-6) vs. 49ers, 17-10
Titans (-4) at Jaguars, 37-19

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you had a Cleveland Browns (+2.5, ML +120) ticket, with the the points or on the money line, it was a stressful afternoon in Week 5 on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers.

There were A LOT of wide open receivers on both sides, as each defense looked like it was playing two or three men short. This was an offensive explosion which saw the Browns fire out to a 27-13 lead early in the third quarter, thanks to a RB Nick Chubb 52-yard scoring scamper.

The Chargers responded with two straight scores, including a 42-yard pass from QB Justin Herbert to a wide-open WR Mike Williams, making it 28-27. Just 42 seconds later, QB Baker Mayfield responded with a 71-yard scoring strike to TE David Njoku to re-take the lead, 35-28. Njoku looked around in the flat, like "am I really this open?", before galloping for a career-long play. After RB Austin Ekeler answered, RB Kareem Hunt scored with 4:45 to go, making it 42-35.

With 3:15 to go, Herbert hit Ekeler on a 19-yard scoring play, but PK Tristan Vizcaino missed the extra point, as the Browns maintained a 42-41 lead. Money line bettors were ecstatic, as Cleveland still held the lead. But they did nothing with the ball next time out, and the Chargers quickly moved the ball back down the field.

Ekeler was trying to position the ball for a field goal. He slid short of the goal line for a first down, and on a first and goal, he ran slowly to the middle of the pack trying to run some clock. The Browns actually grabbed him, pulling him into the end zone for the score, making it 47-42 in favor of the Chargers. While Browns money line bettors didn't like that, they wouldn't have had a chance with the Chargers in place for a chip shot field goal. The Browns moved to midfield before a heave to the end zone with zeroes on the clock, and the Hail Mary fell flat. Great game if you like Madden, as this was like a video game, or if you are a Chargers fan, a Chargers money line bettor or you were laying the points with the favorite.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Detroit Lions (+10, ML +340) were catching 10 points in an NFC North Division battle on the road against the Minnesota Vikings. They easily covered, but anybody holding a money line ticket was forced to swallow a bitter pill.

The Vikings were leading 16-6 with 3:17 to go, and PK Greg Joseph misfired on a 49-yard field goal to make it 19-6. Vikings side bettors were likely cursing the kicker, as that would have been the first time the home side was covering all day. It got worse.

Vikings RB Alexander Mattison coughed up the ball with the team leading 16-9, giving the Lions the ball back in favorable field position. The Lions were out of timeouts, and just one first down would have ended the game.

Lions RB D'Andre Swift gashed the Vikings for a 7-yard touchdown run to pull the visitors within 16-15. Head coach Dan Campbell elected to go for two, and go for the win. And QB Jared Goff hooked up with WR KhaDarel Hodge in the back of the end zone for a 17-16 led with just 37 seconds left. It looked like Detroit was going to pull off the stunning comeback.

But QB Kirk Cousins led the Vikings down into field goal range, and Joseph atoned for a 54-yard game-winning field goal to sink the Lions - and money line bettors.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 5 was 39.5, the closing total for both the Denver Broncos-Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots-Houston Texans games.

If you bet the OVER in either of those games, congrats. We had 23 points on the board by halftime in the Denver-Pittsburgh game, and 24 points on the board at half for the New England-Houston game. Both games were in good shape for the OVER most of the day, and double-digit total points in the fourth quarter inches each game across the finish line.

The next lowest total was in the New Orleans Saints-Washington Football Team (43.5) game, and that also followed the same recipe for the OVER. We had 33 total points on the board at halftime. After just one field goal in the third, OVER bettors were feeling as confidence, but a total of 19 points in the final 15 minutes helped this one hit rather easily.

On the flip side, the Buffalo Bills-Kansas City Chiefs (57) game had the highest total on the board for the Sunday Night Football battle. It didn't disappoint, as we saw Buffalo roll to a 24-13 lead at the break before a thunderstorm moved into the area, causing a lightning delay at halftime.

The teams had an hour break, and things weren't quite as crisp in the second half. We had a total of just 21 points on the board in the final 30 minutes, but that was good enough to give OVER bettors just enough points. The Bills have now scored 35 or more points in four consecutive games, and the OVER is 2-1 in the previous three.

As far as primetime games, the Los Angeles Rams-Seattle Seahawks (53.5) on Thursday night saw a scoreless first quarter, and a total of just 10 points on the board at halftime. Seattle also lost QB Russell Wilson to a broken finger, and whenever you see QB Geno Smith in the game, and you're holding an OVER ticket, you can't feel very good. And, as mentioned above, the Bills-Chiefs primetime game went OVER - barely. So that's 1-1 with the Monday Night Football game between the Indianapolis Colts-Baltimore Ravens (46) pending. That's now 9-5 (64.3%) through 14 primetime games. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 6

Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET)

The Dolphins (1-4) and Jaguars (0-5) do battle at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London in Week 6. The stadium just hosted the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons in Week 5, and Atlanta won 27-20 as the OVER (45.5) just inched across the line. The first two games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in 2019 ended up hitting the OVER, too, making the OVER a perfect 3-0 all-time at that venue.

This will be Miami's first game overseas since they were blanked 20-0 at Wembley Stadium in London on Sept. 24, 2017. The Dolphins have hit the UNDER in three of four International Series games, averaging 11.5 PPG in those outings.

The Jaguars were dropped 26-3 on Nov. 3, 2019 as the UNDER connected at Wembley, and the UNDER is 2-0 in Jacksonville's past two trips overseas.

Jacksonville has hit the UNDER is three of the past four games, and they're 1-4 ATS so far this season. Miami is 1-3 ATS in the past four games overall, hitting the OVER in each of the past three.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Packers (4-1) and Bears (3-2) square off in a key NFC North Division battle at Soldier Field. With the Bears buying property in Arlington Heights, it might be one of the last few meetings between these historic rivals on the shores of Lake Michigan.

Green Bay has dominated this series, especially against the number, in recent seasons. The Packers are 20-7 ATS in the past 27 meetings, and 17-5 ATS in the past 22 trips to the Windy City. The OVER is also 6-2 in the past eight meetings in Chitown.

The Packers enter on a 4-0 ATS run, scoring 25 or more points in four straight. The UNDER has edged the OVER 3-2 so far. Meanwhile, the Bears grinded out a 20-9 win in Las Vegas, and they're now 3-1 SU/ATS across the past four. The UNDER has cashed in four in a row for Chicago.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Texans (1-4) hit the road to meet the Colts (1-3), who are playing on a short week after going Monday night in Baltimore.

Houston is averaging just 10.3 PPG across the past three outings. While they have won just once in five outings, they have managed to cover three of five outings, including their only outright win and cover in the division.

The Colts lost three straight to start the season, but they won 27-17 in Miami, heading to Baltimore in Week 5 on a high note. Indianapolis has hit the OVER in the two games they have covered, while the UNDER has cashed in the two games with non-covers.

The Texans are 1-5 ATS in the past six battles against the Colts, while the UNDER is 5-1 in the past six meetings, and 10-2 in the past 12 battles in Indy.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Raiders (3-2) were surprised at home by the Bears at Allegiant Stadium, 20-9, while the Broncos (3-2) were dumped by the Steelers on the road, 27-19.

For Denver, the only surprise in Week 5 was the OVER result, it's first after four consecutive UNDER results. After opening 3-0 SU/ATS, the Broncos are 0-2 SU/ATS in the past two.

The Raiders are in a similar boat, opening 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS, before going 0-2 SU/ATS across the past two outings. They're averaging just 11.5 PPG in the previous two games, while allowing 24.0 PPG. The UNDER has cashed in each game, and three of the past four.

The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, with the home team 8-2 ATS across the past 10 in this series. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the previous six outings, too. The UNDER has dominated, going 8-1 in the past nine meetings, including 5-1 in the past six in the Mile High City.

 

[Udog]

ArmadilloSports

Week 6 NFL spreads:
— Tampa Bay (-7) @ Philadelphia
— Miami (-3) vs Jacksonville (@ London)
— Green Bay (-4.5) @ Chicago
— Minnesota @ Carolina (-1)
— Chargers @ Baltimore (-3.5)
— Cincinnati (-3.5) @ Detroit

Wrapping up a football Sunday

Green Bay 25, Cincinnati 22, OT:
— Green Bay missed a PAT and three FG tries.
— Packers’ six drives in 2nd half/OT: six FG tries (3-6).
— Five drives to red zone, only 16 points.
— Jones ran football 14 times for 103 yards.

— WR Chase caught six passes for 159 yards and a TD.
— Cincy’s last three drives: MFG, INT, MFG
— Green Bay outgained Bengals 466-367.
— Bengals have had a TD play of 31+ yards in all five games.

Minnesota 19, Detroit 17:
— Lions’ only TD came on a 20-yard drive.
— Detroit averaged 4.6 yards/pass attempt, Vikings 7.3.
— Lions are already done with their NFC North road games.
— Detroit is winless SU this year, but 3-2 ATS.

— Vikings kicked 54-yard FG at 0:00 for the win.
— Minnesota scored one TD, tried 5 FG’s, a red flag for offense.
— Vikings outgained Detroit 384-288.
— Vikings are 1-9 ATS in last ten games as home favorites.

Atlanta 27, NJ Jets 20:
— Jets’ first three drives: 8 plays, 16 yards, no first downs.
— Jets have been outscored 75-13 in first half.
— Jets got TD on 1st drive of 3rd quarter, their first score on first drive of a half.
— Last 3+ years, Jets are 5-9 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

— Falcons’ first three drives: 32 plays, 231 yards, 17 points.
— Atlanta converted 9-14 third down plays.
— Falcons outgained Jets, 450-230.
— Pitts caught nine passes for 119 yards and a TD.

Tampa Bay 45, Miami 17:
— Miami lost last four games, giving up 34.5 ppg.
— Dolphins’ first two drives: 16 plays, 145 yards, 10 points.
— Dolphins’ last seven drives: 36 plays, 184 yards, 7 points.
— Miami has given up 32 plays of 20+ yards, has only 16 themselves.

— Tampa Bay won first three home games, scoring 41.3 ppg.
— Buccaneers scored 6 TD’s, tried 2 FGs on nine drives.
— Total yardage: 558-301, Tampa Bay.
— Buccaneers have 19 TD’s on 53 drives this season.

Philadelphia 21, Carolina 18:
— Philly scored winning TD on 27-yard drive after blocked punt.
— Eagles’ first 11 drives: 38 plays, 65 yards, 2 FG’s, safety.
— Eagles’ next three drives: 18 plays, 143 yards, 2 TD’s
— Eagles kicked 58-yard FG on last play of first half.

— Carolina lost last two games, after a 3-0 start.
— Panthers after 1st quarter: 54 plays, 162 yards, 6 points.
— Carolina outscored opponents 69-25 in first half.
— Total yardage: Eagles 273, Panthers 267.

New Orleans 33, Washington 22:
— New Orleans scored 49-yard TD on last play of first half.
— Saints had TD plays of 75-23-49 yards.
— Winston averaged 8.5 yards/pass attempt.
— Last 3+ years, NO is 13-3 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points..

— Washington scored 30-34 points in wins, 16-21-22 in losses.
— Washington’s first 3 drives: 13 points.
— Washington’s last 9 drives: 9 points.
— Last four Washington games went over the total.

Tennessee 37, Jacksonville 19:
— Titans scored defensive TD in first minute of game.
— Titans’ first 5 drives: 42 plays, 288 yards, 3 TD’s, FG.
— Last four weeks, Titans ran ball for 188.3 yards/game.
— Tennessee won eight of last nine series games.

— Jaguars have now lost 20 games in a row.
— Jacksonville outgained Titans, 454-368.
— Jaguars had ball in red zone 2 of last 3 drives, came up empty on both.
— Last 2+ years, Jacksonville is 5-10 ATS as home underdogs.

Pittsburgh 27, Denver 19:
— Broncos lost despite 13-yard edge in field position.
— Last four weeks, Denver converted only 11-48 third down plays.
— Three trips to red zone, Broncos scored only 10 points.
— Two of Denver’s three wins came against a rookie QB.

— Steelers ran ball for 147 yards; they had 221 RY in first four games.
— Pitt averaged 9.4 yards/pass attempt.
— Claypool caught five passes for 130 yards and a TD.
— Opponents have started 8 drives in Pittsburgh territory.
— Steelers haven’t started any drives in opposing territory.

New England 25, Houston 22
— Patriots outscored Houston 16-0 over last 28:00 of game.
— Last four NE drives: 33 plays, 188 yards, 3 FGs and a TD.
— Patriots gained 42+ yards on six of nine drives.
— Patriots’ wins are both over rookie QBs.

— Texans lost last four games, giving up 30 ppg.
— Houston led 22-9 early in third quarter.
— Texans’ last five drives: 20 plays, 69 yards, 2 first downs, zero points.
— Texans have 16 plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 26.

LA Chargers 47, Cleveland 42:
— Browns won 14-7 last week, lost 47-42 here; go figure.
— Browns ran ball for 187.6 yards/game the first five weeks.
— Cleveland outscored foes 35-6 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Cleveland is 9-18 ATS in last 27 games on artificial turf.

— Chargers’ last four drives: 26 plays, 259 yards, 26 points.
— Williams caught eight passes for 165 yards, two TD’s.
— Bolts have converted 33 of 68 third down plays.
— Chargers allowed 198-186-230 rushing yards in last three games.

Chicago 20, Las Vegas 9:
— Bears won three of their last four games, despite passing for 94.5 ypg.
— Chicago allowed 17 or fewer points in its three wins.
— Last three games, Bears converted only 8-32 third down plays.
— Chicago’s last four games stayed under the total.

— Raiders lost last two games, scoring three TD’s on 20 drives.
— First 3 quarters, Raiders ran 38 plays for 162 yards, 8 first downs, 3 points.
— Total yardage for game: 259-252, Raiders.
— Raiders are 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a home favorite.

Dallas 44, NY Giants 20:
— Dallas won its first three home games, scoring 40.3 ppg.
— Dallas has converted 32-62 third down plays.
— Cowboys have 12 takeaways in five games (+7).
— Over is 19-8 in Cowboys’ last 27 home games.

— QB Jones (concussion) left game, as did RB Barkley (ankle).
— Giants have been outscored 51-12 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Dallas outgained Big Blue, 515-367.
— Giants lost last five visits to Dallas, by average of 13 points.

Arizona 17, San Francisco 10:
— Hopkins caught six passes for 87 yards and a TD.
— Arizona has 23 plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 14.
— Arizona has 123 points on 21 drives to red zone (5.86)
— Cardinals are last unbeaten team in NFL.

— Rookie QB Lance threw for 192 yards, ran for 89 in first NFL start.
— 49ers had 93-yard drive in first half, were stopped on downs at the 1.
— Niners have only takeaway (-6) in first five games.
— 49ers had 8 plays of 20+ yards in opener, total of only 11 last four games.

Buffalo 38, Kansas City 20:
— Bills won last four games, scoring 39 ppg.
— Buffalo has given up six TD’s on 53 drives.
— Bills are 9-1-2 ATS last 12 games as road underdogs.
— Buffalo outscored opponents 91-27 in first half.

— Halftime was extended 45 minutes by lightning.
— Chiefs allowed 32.6 ppg in first five games (20 TD’s/43 drives).
— Chiefs turned ball over four times (minus-4)
— KC has 18 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 28.

 

[CNOTES]

MONDAY, OCTOBER 11
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


IND at BAL 08:15 PM
IND +7.5
O 46.5
+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL OCTOBER RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS:


NFL WORLD SPORTS BETTING CHAMPIONSHIP


WLT Pct Units Rank


ATS Picks ........15-13-00 ..........53.57%...........+ 3.50


O/U Picks ........08-15-00 ..........34.78%...........- 42.50


Totals..............23-28-00...........45.09%...........- 39.00


BEST BETS:


ATS Picks...........13-11-00............. 54.16% .............+ 4.50


O/U Picks...........06-14-00..............30.00%..............-47.00


Totals................19-25-00...............43.18%..............-42.50




UPDATED ON 10/11/2021

 

[Udog]

Hot & Not Report - Week 6
Matt Blunt

Second straight week where these scenarios brought up in this piece took up residency behind the woodshed, as Denver, San Francisco, and Cleveland all lost Against the Spread (ATS).

Two of those three games also went 'over' their respective totals (by at least a full TD too) to put a dent in the 'under' run for these teams, although the game that did feature both teams from this spot (Detroit/Minnesota) was an easy 'under' winner in the end.

You've still got to remember that it's just one week of results though, and if scenarios do have any sort of staying power they've got to be kept in the memory banks for at least some time. The five worst teams in offensive yards per point last week were San Francisco, Las Vegas, Jacksonville, Seattle, and Indianapolis, with the latter four in action in Week 6 as the 49ers are on a bye.

Week 6 is the first week of the 2021 NFL season where we do get bye weeks though, and it's that notion of rest which will get talked about over and over for the next eight weeks as the entire league goes through their week off. The general belief with rest in the NFL is that it's a positive for teams in their next contest but that's not always the case.

Granted, these numbers from this season that are about to be presented haven't yet incorporated bye week rest into the results, and a full week off could easily bring these rest numbers back down to a 50/50 range, but in terms of rest angles that are applicable every week (teams with more rest of a TNF game, or teams with less rest off a MNF game), having more rest has been the enemy of point spread victories so far in 2021.

Who's Hot

2021 NFL Teams with a rest disadvantage (off a MNF game or playing an opponent off a TNF game) are 11-4 ATS

Who should I bet?

N.Y. Giants
Pittsburgh Steelers
Indianapolis Colts
Baltimore Ravens

It might be easier for some to think of this trend in mirrored terms as it's just another way of saying that NFL teams with more rest than their opponent are 4-11 ATS (27%) this year. That's quite an indictment on the teams that get those extra days off after playing a Thursday Night Football game, but at the same time, the TNF schedule so far hasn't really had many quality teams involved.

Opening night saw Dallas and Tampa Bay start off the season and those two teams actually account for two of the four ATS wins by teams with more rest this year.

But the other TNF teams to play again after TNF so far have been Washington, New York Giants, Carolina, Houston, Jacksonville, Cincinnati – teams with a combined 10-20 straight up (SU) record so far.

This scenario will get tested in Week 6 with the Rams and Seahawks applicable as “fades” this week off their TNF game in Week 5, as this 11-4 run on NFL teams with a rest disadvantage suggests taking the +10.5 points with the NY Giants at home, as well as laying the -4.5 points on SNF with Pittsburgh.

But given that both games have quarterback injury situations to deal with this week – N.Y. Giants/Daniel Jones and Seattle/Russell Wilson – neither potential play looks all that attractive from the outset.

Jones wasn't the only offensive starter to go down for the Giants on Sunday as their depth chart is going to cause headaches for most, and with Wilson going down in Seattle, any potential inflation in the line on the Seahawks because they are the more rested team is gone because the market generally loves to bet against backup QB's in this league regardless. That means that the price on backing Pittsburgh to support this run is no bargain at all, and while taking all those points could feel like a bit of a bargain, if fading backup QBs is the norm in this market and Jones is ruled ‘out’ for Sunday, that Giants spread is likely going to grow.

Yet, TNF teams aren't the only ones applicable to rest advantage/disadvantage spots, as this 11-4 ATS run for the disadvantaged teams would also suggest ATS plays on Baltimore (-3 vs L.A. Chargers) and Indianapolis (-9.5 vs. Houston).

With how that fourth quarter went down on MNF between the Ravens and Colts, concerns about mental fragility in that Colts locker room have to cross your mind, with the opposite effect potentially happening on the Baltimore side of things.

The fact that both of these teams are the chalk doesn't particularly help their cause, but Indy's defense should be able to bounce back by virtue of playing a Houston team that's 2nd last in the league in offensive yards per point on the road.

Baltimore's case is a little trickier with them welcoming the red hot Los Angeles Chargers to town, as that game is unlikely to see lopsided action one way or another on the spread. The only other potential thing to consider as possibly more support for a Ravens play is that the Chargers do have their own bye week on deck which they could possibly be looking ahead too, but the Ravens host the Bengals in a Week 7 divisional matchup too.

Who's Not

Non-Conference home underdogs are 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS this season

Who should I fade?

Detroit Lions
Washington Football Team
New England Patriots

Speaking of the Cincinnati Bengals, they are the only team to win a non-conference game outright as home underdogs and they did so way back in Week 1 with their OT win over the Vikings.

Since then, it's been an 0-9 SU run for home dogs against non-conference foes, with Cincinnati also being the most recent loser in this streak with their OT loss to Green Bay on Sunday.

The other three ATS wins came from:

Week 2 - Indianapolis (27-24 loss at +4 vs LAR)
Week 3 - Detroit (19-17 loss at +7.5 vs Baltimore)
Week 4 - New England (19-17 loss at +6.5 vs Tampa Bay)

You can see that even against the number we don't get more than one ATS win per week from teams in this spot.

That's not particularly good news for Detroit, Washington, or New England this week as all three organizations are catching points against non-conference foes this week.

Washington (+6.5) welcomes QB Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to town this week, and SU losses in back-to-back games in the Mahomes era is just not something the Chiefs have done very often. It happened once in his first full season as a starter in 2018 (Weeks 14-15), once in 2019 (Weeks 5-6), not at all in 2020, but has happened once already this year (Weeks 2-3).

KC's defense has been the definition of a sieve so far this year so maybe having multiple occurrences of consecutive losses is in the cards for KC this season, but it's not like Washington's highly touted defense has been much better through five weeks. Makes it really tough to believe that Washington will buck this 1-10 SU trend for non-conference home dogs this week.

New England hosts a Dallas team that's just been lighting up scoreboards no matter who/where they play this season, and like the SNF game vs old pal Tom Brady a few weeks back, any shot the Patriots have in this one to come away with the SU victory is going to come on the backs of a great defensive effort.

It definitely could happen as I never want to count out New England head coach Bill Belichick and his schemes to hold down a very talented offense, but on the back of being in a 1-10 SU spot, this Patriots game could easily end up like that meeting with Tampa where New England loses SU but stays inside the point spread.

Finally there's the Detroit Lions who watched their head coach cry for the cameras on Sunday night after yet another close loss. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell's tears could have come from a place of him simply being a starving man who's yet to “bite off any kneecaps” this year with his winless team, because everybody's got to eat in this world to survive.

However, based on the point spread/matchup, the winless Lions are the most likely to be that non-conference home dog that comes away with a SU victory this week, but are you really interested in backing a winless team to go in the face of a 1-10 SU run this year? I certainly am not and it makes it a very easy game for me to pass and track this week.

 

[Udog]

ArmadilloSports


Wednesday’s Den: How NFL teams do on their first drive of each half:

Teams have played five games, so we’re looking at 10 drives for each team:

Offense
— Teams that scored most points on their first drive of game:
Vikings 24, Bills 21, Chiefs 20, Rams/Bears 17

— Teams that gained most yards on their first drive of game:
Chiefs 71.8 yards/drive, Vikings 57.8, Lions 50.8, Rams 49.2

— Teams that scored least points on their first drive of game:
Ravens, Bengals, Raiders, Jets 0
Broncos, Saints, Titans, Washington 3

— Teams that scored most points on their first drive of 2nd half:
Rams 28, Chiefs/Titans 21, Bengals 20

— Teams that scored least points on their first drive of 2nd half:
Jaguars, Seattle 0
Cardinals, Vikings, Eagles 3

— Teams that scored most points on first drive of all 10 halves:
Rams 45, Bills 41, Chiefs 38, Bears/Dallas 31

— Teams that scored fewest points on first drive of all 10 halves:
Jaguars, Jets 7
Ravens, Saints 10
Cardinals, Eagles, Washington 13

Defense
— Teams that allowed fewest points on first drive of game:
Panthers, Dallas, Giants 0
Bills, Jaguars, Steelers, Bucs, Titans 3

— Teams that allowed most points on first drive of game:
Washington 24, Eagles 20, Falcons, Lions, Packers, Chiefs, Seattle 17

— Teams that allowed fewest points on first drive of 2nd half:
Raiders, Eagles, Giants 0
Bills, Bengals, Saints, Titans 3

— Teams that allowed most points on first drive of 2nd half:
Chargers 28, Dolphins 24, Ravens/Giants 21

— Teams that allowed fewest points on first drive of all 10 halves:
Bills, Dallas, Titans 6
Panthers/Raiders 7, Steelers 9, Bengals/49ers 10

— Teams that allowed most points on first drive of all 10 halves:
Washington 41, Chargers/Dolphins 38, Ravens 35
Falcons, Browns, Lions, Seattle 34

 

[Udog]

TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play over the last 2 seasons.

MIAMI is 18-7 ATS (10.3 Units) after the first month of the season in the last 3 seasons.

INDIANAPOLIS are 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) over the last 2 seasons.

GREEN BAY is 15-5 ATS (9.5 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

KANSAS CITY is 37-17 ATS (18.3 Units) in road games vs. bad defenses (>24 PPG) since 1992.

CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after playing a game at home in the last 2 seasons.

LA CHARGERS are 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.

DETROIT is 46-74 ATS (-35.4 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since 1992.

LA RAMS are 17-5 ATS (11.5 Units) in road games vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992.

ARIZONA is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) in road games vs. above avg. teams (51-59%) since 1992.

LAS VEGAS are 19-42 ATS (-27.2 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

NEW ENGLAND is 25-8 ATS (16.2 Units) in home games in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

PITTSBURGH is 69-34 ATS (31.6 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) since 1992.

BUFFALO is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games in the last 2 seasons.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 6

Thursday game
Tampa Bay (4-1) @ Philadelphia (2-3)
— Bucs gave up 29.3 ppg to veteran #1 QB’s (Prescott, Ryan, Stafford).
—.Bucs gave up 17-17 points to suspect/backup QB’s (Jones/Brissett)
— Bucs lost 34-24 at Rams, won 19-17 in Foxboro (0-2 AF as road faves).
— Buccaneers have 19 TD’s on 53 drives this season.
— Last four games, Tampa Bay is +6 in turnovers.
— Average total in Tampa Bay’s first five games: 57.8
— Over is 4-1 in Tampa Bay games this season.

— Eagles are 0-2 SU at home, 2-1 on road this season.
— Eagles’ were outrushed 469-258 last three weeks.
— Last 4+ years, Eagles are 3-4 ATS as home underdogs.
— Philly has 20 plays of 20+ yards, has allowed 13.
— Last three weeks, Eagles were outscored 56-26 in first half.
— NFC East teams are 3-7 ATS in non-divisional home games.

— Bucs won last two meetings, 45-17/27-21.
— Tampa Bay won three of last four visits to Philly.
— Teams last met in 2018.

Sunday games
Miami (1-4) vs Jacksonville (0-5) (@ London)
— Miami lost last four games, giving up 34.5 ppg.
— Miami has only eight TD’s this season, on 47 drives.
— Under Flores, Dolphins are 5-3 ATS as a favorite.
— Miami has given up 32 plays of 20+ yards, has only 16 themselves.
— Last three weeks, Miami converted 11-36 on third down.
— Last three Dolphin games went over the total.

— Jaguars have now lost 20 games in a row.
— Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS, with four losses by 10+ points.
— Jacksonville is already minus-10 in turnovers (1-11)
— Last 2+ years, Jacksonville is 12-19 ATS as underdogs.
— Jaguars converted 18 of 55 third down plays.
— Jaguars play in London most every year (3-4 SU last 8 years)

— Home side lost seven of last eight series games.
— Dolphins won four of last six series games.
— Miami won last four visits here; their last loss in Jacksonville was 62-7 loss in 1999 playoffs.

Houston (1-4) @ Indianapolis (1-4)
— Texans lost last four games, giving up 30 ppg.
— Houston is 0-2 on road: 21-31 (+13) @ Browns, 0-40 (+17) @ Bills.
— Last 3+ years, Texans are 10-7 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last three games, Houston converted 8-30 on third down.
— Rookie QB’s struggle; they’re 7-15 ATS so far this season.
— First-time head coaches are 15-20 ATS this season.

— Short week for Colts, after they blew 25-9 lead in Monday nite’s loss.
— Indy is 0-2 SU at home: 28-16 vs Seattle, 27-24 vs Rams.
— Under Reich, Colts are 7-6-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Colts have eight takeaways in last four games (+4)
— Colts are 6-11-1 ATS in AFC South home games.
— Wentz threw for 402 yards Monday; total yardage 523-513, Ravens.

— Colts won seven of last nine series games.
— Texans lost three of last four visits to Indy.
— Six of last seven series games were decided by 7 or less points.

Green Bay (4-1) @ Chicago (3-2)
— Green Bay won last four games, scoring 29.3 ppg.
— Packers’ two road wins were by total of five points.
— Green Bay is 16-14-1 ATS last 31 games as a road favorite.
— Over is 6-4-1 in last 11 Packer road games.
— Last two years, Green Bay was 4-2 ATS in NFC North road tilts.
— Last three games, Packers have 17 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 6.

— Bears won three of last four games, despite passing for 94.5 ypg..
— Bears outrushed last two opponents, 331-101.
— Chicago has been outscored 74-39 in second half of games.
— Last five years, Chicago is 9-5 ATS as home underdogs.
— Last two games, Bears converted 8-32 third down plays.
— Last four Chicago games stayed under the total.

— Packers won four in row, nine of last ten series games.
— Green Bay is 10-1 in last 11 trips to Chicago (loss in ’18)

Kansas City (2-3) @ Washington (2-3)
— KC has turned ball over 11 times since their last takeaway.
— Chiefs lost three of last four games, giving up 33.5 ppg.
— Chiefs have given up 20 TD’s on 43 drives
— KC has scored 19 TD’s on 43 drives this season.
— Four of five Chief games went over the total.
— KC has 18 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 28.

— Washington scored 30-34 points in wins, 16-21-22 in losses.
— Washington allowed 33.8 ppg in last four games.
— Washington opponents converted 41-73 on third down (56.2%).
— Last 4+ years, Washington is 9-12 ATS as a home underdog.
— Washington is 3-7 ATS in last ten games vs AFC teams.
— Last four Washington games went over the total.

— Chiefs won nine of ten series games (loss was in 1983).
— Chiefs won last three visits here, by 32-8-35 points.

Minnesota (2-3) @ Carolina (3-2)
— Vikings lost their two road games, by total of four points.
— Last two games, Minnesota has only two TD’s on 21 drives.
— Minnesota is 4-6 ATS last 10 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Vikings’ last three games stayed under the total.
— Minnesota lost field position in four of five games.
— Minnesota has been outscored 45-6 in last 2:00 of each half.

— Carolina lost last two games after 3-0 start, giving up 28.5 ppg.
— Panthers are 4-7 ATS in last 11 home games.
— Carolina outscored opponents 69-25 in first half.
— Last two games, Panthers were outscored 38-17 in second half.
— Under is 4-1 in Carolina games this season.
— Carolina is 7-5 ATS last 12 games with spread of 3 or less points.

— Vikings are 9-6 vs Carolina.
— Panthers lost 28-27 in Minnesota LY.
— Vikings are 2-3 in Charlotte; their last visit was in 2017.

LA Chargers (4-1) @ Baltimore (4-1)
— Chargers won last three games, scoring 35.5 ppg.
— Chargers scored 15 TD’s on their last 31 drives
— Bolts converted 33 of first 65 third down plays.
— Chargers allowed 198-186-230 rushing yards last three games.
— Bolts are 2-0 SU on road: 20-16 @ Washington, 30-24 @ KC.
— Four of five Charger games this year stayed under total.

— Baltimore won last four games, scoring 27.3 ppg.
— Jackson threw for 442 yards, ran for 62 more Monday.
— Last 6+ years, Ravens are 17-22-2 ATS as home favorites.
— Four of their five games were decided by 1 or 2 points, or in OT.
— Last 2+ years, Ravens are 16-9-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Ravens scored TD’s on last four drives Monday; defenders get tired chasing Jackson around for 60-70 plays.

— Teams split last six meetings.
— Chargers won two of last three visits to Baltimore.

Cincinnati (3-2) @ Detroit (0-5)
— 4 of 5 Cincinnati games were decided by exactly three points.
— Bengals have had a TD play of 31+ yards in all five games.
— Cincy outscored last three opponents 42-19 in 2nd half.
— Last five years, Bengals are 2-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 7+ years, Cincy is 8-14-1 ATS vs NFC teams.
— Last four Bengal games stayed under the total.

— Detroit is winless, but is 3-2 against the spread.
— Last three games, Lions were outscored 37-6 in first half.
— Detroit gave up at least 7.3 yards/pass attempt in every game.
— Last five years, Detroit is 10-14 ATS as home underdogs.
— Last three Detroit games stayed under the total.
— Lions are first team EVER to lose two games in same season, when the opponent made a FG of 50+ yards at the gun.

— Cincinnati won last six series games.
— Lions’ last series win was in 1992.
— Bengals won last five visits to the Motor City.

LA Rams (4-1) @ NY Giants (1-4)
— Rams are 2-0 on road, winning 27-24 at Indy, 26-17 at Seattle.
— Rams scored 17+ second half points in 4 of 5 games.
— LA threw for 8.5+ yards/pass attempt in 4 of 5 games.
— Rams’ opponents are 28-58 on 3rd down- not good.
— Under McVay, LA is 14-11 ATS as a road favorite.
— Over is 4-1 in Rams’ games.

— QB Jones (concussion) got KO’d last week; check status.
— RB Barkley sprained his ankle last week; check his status, too.
— 3 of Giants’ last 4 games were decided by 3 or less points, or OT.
— Giants lost first two home games; to Denver (27-13), Atlanta (17-14).
— Big Blue is 4-15 ATS last 19 games as a home underdog.
— Giants have been outscored 51-12 in last 2:00 of each half.

— Sean McVay’s grandfather coached Giants in the 70’s.
— McVay is 2-0 vs Big Blue, winning 51-17/17-9.
— Teams split last four meetings played here.

Arizona (5-0) @ Cleveland (3-2)
— Arizona won its first five games, scoring 31.4 ppg.
— Cardinals have 18 TD’s on 52 drives this season.
— Arizona has 123 points on 21 drives to red zone (5.86)
— Arizona is 1-6 ATS last seven games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Arizona has 23 plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 14.
— Cardinals already have three road wins, scoring 38-31-37 points.
— Cardinals are last unbeaten team in NFL.

— Browns are 3-2, scoring up 29-42 points in the losses.
— Browns ran ball for 187.6 yards/game the first five weeks.
— Cleveland outscored foes 35-6 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Browns outscored teams 77-47 in first half of games.
— Cleveland is 4-7-1 ATS last 12 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Browns covered their last six games against NFC teams.

— Cardinals won five of six series games.
— Arizona split pair of visits here: lost 44-6, won 34-20.

Las Vegas (3-2) @ Denver (3-2)
— Chaotic week, with team changing coaches Monday nite.
— Raiders are 3-2, but trailed 14-0 or 14-3 in four of five games.
— Last two games, Raiders were outscored 35-3 in first half.
— Las Vegas outscored opponents 79-50 in 2nd half/OT of games.
— Raiders are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as road underdogs.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

— Denver lost last two games; they were held to 7-19 points.
— Two of their three wins were against a rookie QB.
— Denver outscored opponents 52-28 in second half of games.
— Broncos are 4-2-1 ATS last seven games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Last four weeks, Denver converted only 11-48 third down plays.
— Four of five Denver games stayed under the total.

— Home side won nine of last ten series games.
— Raiders won four of last five series games.
— Las Vegas lost four of last five visits to Denver.
— Raiders’ last three visits here were all decided by one point.

Dallas (4-1) @ New England (2-3)
— Dallas is 5-0 ATS; their only loss was 31-29 at Tampa in Week 1.
— Cowboys have 12 takeaways in five games (+7).
— Dallas has converted 32-62 third down plays.
— Cowboys won field position last three weeks, by 10-15-10 yards.
— Dallas has 22 plays of 20+ yards, but has allowed 25 of them.
— Over is 4-1 in Cowboys’ games this season.

— Patriots’ two wins are both over rookie QB’s.
— Patriots scored 25 points in both wins; 16-13-17 in losses.
— Average total in New England’s first five games: 37.6.
— Last three games, Patriots are minus-6 in turnovers.
— Four of five New England games stayed under total.
— Belichick’s career record without Brady: 64-75 SU

— New England won last six series games.
— Last time Dallas beat the Patriots? 1996.
— Cowboys lost last four visits here; their last win in Foxboro, 1987.

Seattle (2-3) @ Pittsburgh (2-3)
— Wilson (finger) is out six weeks; QB Smith makes 1st start since ‘17.
— Smith is 12-19 as NFL starter; 29 of those games were in 2013-14.
— Wilson had started Seahawks’ last 149 games.
— Seahawks played last Thursday, had extra time to prep.
— Seattle is 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games as road underdogs.
— Seattle has 24 plays of 20+ yards; they’ve given up 20.
— Last two games, opponents converted 4-24 on third down.

— Steelers scored 17-10-17 points in losses, 23-27 in wins.
— Steelers ran ball for 147 yards LW, averaged 55.3 first four games.
— Last four weeks, Steelers were outscored 50-30 in second half.
— Pitt has scored only nine TD’s on 47 drives this season.
— Opponents have started 8 drives in Pittsburgh territory.
— Steelers haven’t started any drives in opposing territory.
— Four of five Steeler games stayed under the total.

— Seattle won last two series games, 39-30/28-26
— Seahawks are 3-7 overall in Pittsburgh.

Monday game
Buffalo (4-1) @ Tennessee (3-2)
— Bills won/covered last four games, scoring 39 ppg.
— Buffalo has given up six TD’s on 53 drives.
— Bills are 6-3 ATS last nine games as road favorites.
— Last three games, Bills are +11 in turnovers.
— Buffalo outscored first five foes 91-27 in first half.
— Last three weeks, Buffalo averaged 8.2/8.1/12.1 yards/pass attempt.

— Tennessee won three of last four games, scoring 29.8 ppg.
— Last four weeks, Titans ran ball for 188.3 yards/game.
— Titans had 7 turnovers in first three games, none in last two.
— Tennessee has only TD play longer than 18 yards.
— Last four years, Titans are 6-3 ATS as home underdogs.
— Over is 3-1 in Tennessee’s last four games.

— Buffalo won three of last four series games.
— Bills lost four of six games in Nashville.
— Titans scored 17 or fewer points in last seven series losses.

 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
Tampa Bay is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Philadelphia's last 17 games at home

Miami @ Jacksonville
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

Green Bay @ Chicago
Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Green Bay is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Chicago
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Chicago's last 21 games at home

Houston @ Indianapolis
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 12 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 12 games when playing at home against Houston

Kansas City @ Washington
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Kansas City

LA Rams @ NY Giants
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Rams's last 7 games
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
NY Giants is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing LA Rams

Cincinnati @ Detroit
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

LA Chargers @ Baltimore
LA Chargers
LA Chargers is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Chargers is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games at home

Minnesota @ Carolina
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Carolina
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games at home

Arizona @ Cleveland
Arizona
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 9 games on the road
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Las Vegas @ Denver
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Las Vegas's last 9 games when playing Denver
Las Vegas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against Las Vegas

Dallas @ New England
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas

Seattle @ Pittsburgh
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Seattle

Buffalo @ Tennessee
Buffalo
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Tennessee
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Tennessee's last 14 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

-- Five Teams have an 'over' record of 4-1 (Cowboys, Chiefs, Rams, Buccaneers, Washington

-- Eight Teams have an 'under' record of 4-1 (Panthers, Bears, Bengals, Broncos, Chargers, Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks

-- The Cowboys, Rams and Bucs have seen the 'over' go 3-0 in all of their home games

-- The Panthers, Vikings and Patriots are 3-0 to the 'under' at home

-- The N.Y. Giants and Titans are 3-0 to the 'over' on the road while Seattle is 3-0 to the 'under' away from home.