Grindstone30;11195480]Mr H you are a wealth of knowledge. My question to you is how do you know from a line movement what is sharp money conpaired to what is the square money? My question to you is how do you know from a line movement what is sharp money and what is the square money?
Grindstone30, I had to reach out System Smity Ryann II, J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst to answer your question my friend. He e-mailed reply which I had to copy and post to you my friend. System Smity Ryann II answer to you "Grindstone30" is Line movement can happen for a number of reasons including injuries and weather. Square bettors are usually looking to wager on favorites, while sharp bettors wait for the price on an underdog to rise to get that inflated number they are looking for. On the contrary, just because you lose doesn’t mean you’re a square, and just because you win doesn’t mean that you aren’t a square. Square bettors though, are typically the ones that believe that they should be able to win 70% or 80% of their games. Of course, we know that in the long run, that’s a legitimate impossibility, as even the best of bettors only win in the mid-to high-50%s of their games, and they make awesome money doing so. As to say the best way to find out where sharp money is would be to follow, Square bettors usually looking to wager on favorites, while sharp bettors wait for the price on an underdog to rise to get that inflated number they are looking for. As say the best way to find out where sharp money is would be to follow reverse line movements.If 80% of the bets have been placed on the Giants -7 vs Lions as a example Grindstone30 and the line has dropped to -6 or maybe -5 1/2. You know that the sharp money is on the underdog Lions. You would expect that the line would go to Giants -5 or -5 1/2 or more with 80% of the bets in, but a couple of large wagers have obviously been thrown in on the Lions +7 to +6 or +5 1/2 to move the line the other way.
Line movement that shifts against public betting percentages is typically an excellent indicator of smart or “wise guy” money. Many of these sharp bettors have developed systems that they use to set their own line, and if that line is a few points off of the actual number, they look to bet it up big-time. Always look at the opening lines early in the week and look at the movement through out the week. This is very important Grindstone30 look at the money line movement, follow the money,lines move with money!!! Never !! Never!! bet the opening line in the beginning of the week Grindstone30. J.J Bascus power rating PWK RK& %ECCO}}}/% is excellent indicator, was in 66% range last year of NFL season of smart or“wise guy” money. Walk softly and utilize all your past performance,determining your picks is key here."Patience is a virtue"-do not jump in with a bet and wait for the movement in the line.... Grindstone30 I hoped that answered your question my friend.Obviously, most bettors want to wager on several games every week. However, if you can be disciplined and simply follow these reverse line movements throughout the season, I have no doubt you will come out ahead every year. Why would you want to be a square when you can simply follow the smart money each week?
System Smitty Ryann Jr.
PS.. Any friend of HarryTheHats is a friend of mine Grindstone30...What few friends HarryTheHat has?//LOL!!!LOL!!! LOL!!
Hey Mr H glad to see you back hope all is well with you and all your crew. Hope Las Vegas is treating you nicely. NFL is upon us, gonna look forward to your thread each week. Let's get'em again this year. Might be heading your way Mid Nov for the Big Smoke Cigar Aficionado convention. Be well my friend. God Bless you all
~Thank You Grindstone30~ The crew is alive and well again for another N.F.L. season. Grindstone30 I will be posting J.J. Bascus power rating and predictions on his bets and also the crew picks for entire NFL regular Season and play-offs for 2nd year here on Rx sports forum. Grindstone30 we will have some great gamblers who handicap games from all over the country that will be visiting us here at the sports book periodically through out season. Old school friends of J.J.s and ours, which I will also post on there picks also. Bee Bee Black widow[ youngster[ will also have guests join us too with picks.[ Is that scary Grindstone30 LOL!!!LOL!!!] just kidding my friend !!! LOL!!. Grindstone30 System Smitty Ryann Jr. is working diligently complying information, stats, and percentage's break-downs with J.J. as we speak my friend. Grindstone30 we all love to party & cocktail together and bet at our favorite sports book and dinner pool also. Grindstone30 we are the old school and all of us are mentors of late Bob Martin[ God Rest His Soul] properly told us every thing we know about betting NFL games. Stay well my friend Grindstone30 and God bless always.
Looking forward to your replys,feedbacks any questions you might have with our picks and also yours.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
~OurCrew~
J.J. Bascus Power Rating and Picks [Reno NV.//// System Smity Ryann II, J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst [ Las Vegas N.V.]/// Mr.HarryTheHat[ Las Vegas N.V./// Back Room Benny The Jew [ Brooklyn N.Y./// Sammy Sea Way [ Boston Mass] ///.Bee Bee Black widow [ Henderson N.V.]/// Little Bobby Lancer[ St. Paul Minnesota ] Angelo[ Pee-Wee] Moretti [Cicero Chicago] Guest Handicapper for the 1st 3 weeks of NFLseason
