J.J. Bascus Power Rating & Power Rank For Conference Game Playoffs & J.J. Bascus Players

[TDH]

A couple of old stories Harry:
1) I remember going into Little Caesars with my wife to place a bet at Maday's book. There was an old homeless looking guy ahead of us in line with a paper sack. I was worried about safety because my wife was next to me, so I took her arm and stepped back. At the window, he opened this crumpled bag and took out 10,000 bucks to bet on an NFL game. You can't judge a book by its cover.
2) A friend of mine left Chicago to work at Gary Austin's Race and Sports Book before the casinos had books. He quit because he told me Vegas was so full of phonies who just wanted to show off their Franklins and he was barely scrapping by. He was barely making it with his new bride, so he left. Later I heard Gary Austin stiffed lots of bettors, but I don't know if he was ever convicted for absconding with the cash.
3) I loved the Stardust when they opened the line in the old days on the microphone around 8 am every morning. I told my wife I was going to be the first to move the line for the entire country. I think they opened Michigan -17 over Northwestern in a hoop game. I put a dime on Michigan and they immediately announced Michigan -18. Yes, I moved the line, my 15 minutes of fame, but later Northwestern won in an upset, but at least I moved the line. A victory for my ego, but my wallet was empty. Also, when the line was posted at the Stardust, I remember all the mob guys running out the north door, getting on the bank of phones out there, and spreading the line to New York and Chicago. Those were the days.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

The bookies don't care about accurately predicting the outcome of the game. Sports books don't set out to set the odds of winning, they set out to equalize the bets on either side of a bet, both with spread odds (The Dolphins are 3.5 point underdogs vs. the 49ers) and with betting odds (The 49ers pay 3:2 if they beat the Dolphins).Many bettors will week in and week out bet on their favorite team. It doesn't matter which side you bet, to win or to lose, you cannot have an objective view of the game. You may talk yourself into believing you can view the point spread and the game objectively, but if you're a fan you have built-in biases that you may not even be aware of.

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If the sports book does their job properly, it ends up paying out to the winning side almost exactly what it took in from the losing side[ that's their game]. Even if books get hammered in one week on a game, they will average out following weeks, not every body bets the same teams. Let me say this again because it is probably the most important thing I can tell you. The only reason you should ever bet on a game is if you feel you have an advantage over the bookie or casino.

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How do they then make money? Well, that's why I said almost exactly. The sports book also put a percentage on every bet, the vig & juice could be higher with off shore betting. If you bet to many games in one week of NFL and lose the vig & juice it will eat you up brother [I know I been there when I first starting betting sports], and all you doing in following weeks of bets is getting even on juice, that could hurt you. Remember you are only as strong as your bankroll and believe the books in vegas have a bigger one. That's where the sports book makes their money. I don,t personally bet off shore books, because I live Vegas and make my bets shopping around for spreads. The secret is patience and need to exercise self-control.My philosophy in betting is why I choose to play just betting one game at each week [Some exceptions applied Monday & Thursday Night games. I don't use trends such as "The Steelers are 13-2 in week number 7" (Do they actually know that week 7 is their week and gain confidence from it?) or "bet on home dogs from +2 to +4 if it's a weeknight MAC game" (the more narrow the point spread range is the more likely it is a random occurrence and not a true indicator of a real pattern).

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The moral of my thread!!!! is that only suckers think they can predict the outcome of sporting events. And sports books know this even better than the guys betting the lines. So they've contrived a situation where they make money no matter who wins hedging on the results.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
Very good to you all RX members of NFL season on your bets and predictions.

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PS. A SPECIAL NOTE... One of best Theory's that use is the ''Up-Down Theory ''suggests that teams that played poorly one week should be due for a regression the next, while a team that played above itself will come back down to earth. However, the market usually corrects the other way, assuming that a team that played poorly is a “bad team” and will be equally bad or even worse the next week while a team that won will continue to play well or improve. When a team coming off a statistically anomalous “bad” game goes up against a team that played over its head the week prior, then you have a classic Up-Down situation.


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[StevieRay]

Good stuff Harry

 

[jgm4661]

I just read Stanford Wong's book on sports betting(not his real name). He has some advanced degrees in maths and statistics and his comments are fairly general along those lines. Basically there are no historical adv to H,F, A ,D or any edge for a particular line ie dogs at -+2.5 They are all around 50%.

He makes the same pts as you do. He does admit that oddsmakers will sometimes set lines higher on public teams. His key pt though is the line is like the stock market. All known stats, injuries, records and other public information is already impounded into the line just like a stock price.

It is up to the bettor who knows something other than the available public information to use that unknown information to to take adv of a line. And only bet when the bettor has that inside information edge. The only edges I have seen is when the line is a little skewed on public teams esp on the road. Wong estimated the hfa to be I think ~ 2 pts but it can vary wildly w some teams. NO, CIN, ATL , DET were examples last yr

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Good Luck To You jgm4661 In The 2015 NFL Season.Thanks for your Comment & Freed Back[Info....

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

I received a Private Message asking why we as group don't handicap and bet NFL preseason games? As I stated in previous posts and threads from Private Messages . Sports bettors like us as a group that handicap games to bet, pass when it comes to betting NFL preseason games. One prevalent reason? why? We as a group don't bet exhibition games. Because as a group we would use the same handicapping methods against exhibition games than we would use against regular season games. Our power rating and our method of handicapping would """Fly Off The Charts"""/LOLl!!!LOL!!!! If you can't fly with the eagles, get out of the sky? LOL!!!LOL!!!

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System Smitty Ryann Jr. J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst & Being With Our Crew
~OurCrew~

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J.J. Bascus [Reno NV.//// System Smity Ryann II[ Las Vegas N.V./// Mr.HarryTheHat[ Las Vegas N.V./// Back Room Benny The Jew [ Brooklyn N.Y./// Sammy Sea Way [ Boston Mass] ///.Bee Bee Black widow [ Henderson N.V.]/// Little Bobby Lancer[ St. Paul Minnesota ] Angelo[ Pee-Wee] Moretti [Cicero Chicago] Guest Handicapper

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Hårr¥THëHÄT

 

[Bolty]

Thanks and don't let the haters get to you.It's a long season with ups and downs and you guys made $$$$ for all of us.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

[

Thanks and don't let the haters get to you.It's a long season with ups and downs and you guys made $$$$ for all of us.

I would like to go on record or say this to all great members here on Rx sports forum. You have to remember that we as the group including J.J. Bascus are NFL gamblers that are handicapping games. We are not professional sports service or a Paid Sports Consulting Service. I post our picks as a group, so you can evaluate our picks and also evaluate the power rating. If you like our picks to bet fine, if you disagree with our picks fine also. No body telling you bet our picks. If you lose on our picks, we are losing too, as professional gamblers. I really don't care how much money you win or lose, that's not my business, or the amount you bet at all, its immaterial to us as a group. If you are looking at the J.J.Bascus power rating that I post as a courtesy to some great members here[ ~SaintsFan1977 & Grindstone30~.as stand-up guys here on the forum, just to name a few]... Who are looking for some great information from us, sharing ideas & information from an NFL gamblers standpoint also guests and players, we all know across country that would like see our ratings great.!!!... If you look at bottom of J.J. Bascus rating you will read "power rating predictions factors in slightly different factors which give differences with the Las Vegas predictions. If you look at bottom of J.J. Bascus rating you will read "power rating predictions factors in slightly different factors which give differences with the Las Vegas predictions His predictions that can help you confirm and/or make your own decisions.~That what its all about~!!!!

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Conclude my thread, I would like to share this thought with you RX members. I’m sure you’ve seen them online, heard through sports betting forums or various other online outlets, those posts or banners flashing the attention grabbing headline of the best betting system, or winning sports betting system, or we win 90% of our sports picks. The reality is that 80% of the sports betting systems in the market don’t work, or unqualified. I would even go on the line to say it is closer to 90% and the factors that play into their prediction systems or methods are why the majority of NFL betters lose. The unfortunate case with the handicapper market is that it’s a saturated market of self-proclaimed sports betting professionals claiming to have the latest sports betting system that produces the best winning picks and giving away with free picks The unfortunate, and fortunate case of the sports betting and handicapper industry is that the 80/20 business school rule applies.. Good power rating are where to go, We use J.J. Bascus[ Reno N.V.] power rating analysis considered the best 80% true. Its your call? or your decisions? about us as a group and our power rating we use? Weather you bet with our picks or not.

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Hårr¥THëHÄT

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Thanks and don't let the haters get to you.It's a long season with ups and downs and you guys made $$$$ for all of us.

Thanks Bolty "best of luck in up-coming NFL season my friend"

 

[indiana]

Mr. H./hat..........appreciate all the info............looking forward to your thoughts and plays...........BOL to you and your crew............indy

 

[stander]

Fear the Hat.

Good luck this year my friend.

Thanks for posting!

Ready to compete. Ready to WIN.

 

[sleepwalker]

MR.HARRYtheHAT, when you say that J.J. Bascus Power Ratings are 80% true. Would you be kind enough
to expand on that. I'm sure it doesn't apply to win percentage. Ratings when used are compared to a
betting line perhaps? I appreciate all you do for us here at the Rx. I have to admire any man who had Bob Martin
as a mentor. I can remember going out to my car to get his lines off the radio. Oh so l o n g ago.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

MR.HARRYtheHAT, when you say that J.J. Bascus Power Ratings are 80% true. Would you be kind enough
to expand on that. I'm sure it doesn't apply to win percentage. Ratings when used are compared to a
betting line perhaps? I appreciate all you do for us here at the Rx. I have to admire any man who had Bob Martin
as a mentor. I can remember going out to my car to get his lines off the radio. Oh so l o n g ago.

J.J. Bascus Sports NFL Power Rankings is based on his model that factors in defense and offense statistics including points scored, points given up, win-loss record, and strength of games played and remaining. It indicates who is actually the better teams irrespective of record. His statistical analysis and comparisons of teams to distinguish which teams really are better, just winning[ no spreads or money lines] of the rankings. last year 76 % true ,did not beat his record from year ago at 80%.Point spreads and money line wins on his rating were at 72%.We all do have a lot things in common in our relationship as a crew, we all use as a tool in handicapping games .J.J. Bascus Power Rating and look at his picks.. All 6 of us including J.J. have a common goal as professional gamblers and handicappers that we will all be 70% or better in NFL season entering the Superbowl. Last year we were all in 70% range. History about Sports ratings systems use a variety of methods for rating teams, but the most prevalent method is called a power rating. The power rating of a team is a calculation of the team’s strength relative to other teams in the same league or division. The basic idea is to maximize the amount of transitive relations in a given data set due to game outcomes. For example, if A defeats B and B defeats C, then one can safely say that A>B>C.Jeff Sagarin’s systems, the NY Times system, and the Dunkel Index, are some good examples of there rating .J.J. Basus power rating systems is primary for group and no way compaied to Jeff Sagarin or the NY Times system[ Computerized on winners] or the Dunkel Index. J.J. power rating system is incorprated and designed for us as a group with Bob Matin betting system philosophy. Betting rule to bet 5% or less of your current total bankroll at all times. Pressing a win play one time on the following game pick is a must. Press is worth 3 to1 in the money and of course your juice. J.J. picks and bets off of his rating on presses were 9, I personally had 8. Rest of crew had about 6- 7.[ not included money line presses to point spreads, hedgeing point spreads into money lines. This is J.J.s power rating designed for us in the group.

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J.J. Bascus rating are usually on two sheets of paper that he composes and passed to Keystone print shop off of West 5th street in town. They distribute the rating sheets to most sportsbook in Reno. Everybody and grandmother picks up the sheets that bets NFL football and they copy the rating using their computers, send them to friends, players,and everybody and their grandmothers and whoever else?.. His rating is primary seen in the Reno Area and Northern Calf. There are some sporting newspapers in "Bay Area",that post his rating to that use there own affiliated names in publishing. There also Sports Web Sites on the web that publish his ratings using their affiliated names also. His ratings are free, not copyrighted. You have to remember that J.J. Bascus, Smitty, Benny, Bee Bee and myself are NFL gamblers that handicap/ We are not social players, advisers or whatever? that handicap games for no other reason other than make our NFL bets and Win !!!!!, just gambling on the games



Hårr¥THëHÄT

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Point spreads and money line wins on his rating were at 72%.

Do you have the % for each? Spread and ML?

All 6 of us including J.J. have a common goal as professional gamblers and handicappers that we will all be 70% or better in NFL season entering the Superbowl. Last year we were all in 70% range. History about Sports ratings systems use a variety of methods for rating teams, but the most prevalent method is called a power rating.

70% range!? That's amazing! Do you have it documented? And does that include ML?

 

[sleepwalker]

Thank You,
Best of Health and Good Fortune this season.

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Hårr¥THëHÄT.. Before the season start, I would like first thank you and your group for the contributions in the past and going forward; And your approach of leveraging the collective knowledge and your empirical method, and lastly to say I admire your level of discipline.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Thank You,
Best of Health and Good Fortune this season.

I'am very selective with my plays. I research the entire card finding the play that that has best chance of winning my bet.The most important rule to sports betting rule to bet 5% or less of your current total bankroll at all times. Pressing a win play one time on the following game pick is a must, money line presses to point spreads, hedgeing point spreads into money lines sleepwalker. I probably leaned more about point spreads and money lines from some great old school sports betters there. A rule of thought "follow the money. "A another most important fact that I learned as a streetwise Kid growing up in Vegas is information sleepwalker [reach out to ever body in your circle of influence in sports betting. My ability to pick winners consistently is second to none and with my money management system.

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Thanks for your reply in a constructive criticism approach and always appreciated sleepwalker. Very good luck in the up-coming season my friend.

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Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Hårr¥THëHÄT.. Before the season start, I would like first thank you and your group for the contributions in the past and going forward; And your approach of leveraging the collective knowledge and your empirical method, and lastly to say I admire your level of discipline.

Thank you for the kind words and support smartmoneyfollower !!!!! Best Of Luck in up-coming NFL season !!!!! "Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts."/ LoL !!! There is a fountain of youth: it is your mind, your talents, the creativity you bring to your life and the lives of people you like & Identify with. When you learn to tap this source, you will truly have defeated age."The greatest discovery of all time is that a person can change his future by merely changing his attitude.

 

[Grindstone30]

Hey Mr H glad to see you back hope all is well with you and all your crew. Hope Las Vegas is treating you nicely. NFL is upon us, gonna look forward to your thread each week. Let's get'em again this year. Might be heading your way Mid Nov for the Big Smoke Cigar Aficionado convention. Be well my friend. God Bless you all

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Hey Mr H glad to see you back hope all is well with you and all your crew. Hope Las Vegas is treating you nicely. NFL is upon us, gonna look forward to your thread each week. Let's get'em again this year. Might be heading your way Mid Nov for the Big Smoke Cigar Aficionado convention. Be well my friend. God Bless you all

~Thank You Grindstone30~ The crew is alive and well again for another N.F.L. season. Grindstone30 I will be posting J.J. Bascus power rating and predictions on his bets and also the crew picks for entire NFL regular Season and play-offs for 2nd year here on Rx sports forum. Grindstone30 we will have some great gamblers who handicap games from all over the country that will be visiting us here at the sports book periodically through out season. Old school friends of J.J.s and ours, which I will also post on there picks also. Bee Bee Black widow[ youngster[ will also have guests join us too with picks.[ Is that scary Grindstone30 LOL!!!LOL!!!] just kidding my friend !!! LOL!!. Grindstone30 System Smitty Ryann Jr. is working diligently complying information, stats, and percentage's break-downs with J.J. as we speak my friend. Grindstone30 we all love to party & cocktail together and bet at our favorite sports book and dinner pool also. Grindstone30 we are the old school and all of us are mentors of late Bob Martin[ God Rest His Soul] properly told us every thing we know about betting NFL games. Stay well my friend Grindstone30 and God bless always.

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Looking forward to your replys,feedbacks any questions you might have with our picks and also yours.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

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~OurCrew~

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J.J. Bascus Power Rating and Picks [Reno NV.//// System Smity Ryann II, J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst [ Las Vegas N.V.]/// Mr.HarryTheHat[ Las Vegas N.V./// Back Room Benny The Jew [ Brooklyn N.Y./// Sammy Sea Way [ Boston Mass] ///.Bee Bee Black widow [ Henderson N.V.]/// Little Bobby Lancer[ St. Paul Minnesota ] Angelo[ Pee-Wee] Moretti [Cicero Chicago] Guest Handicapper for the 1st 3 weeks of NFLseason