Guess the day the DOW hits 29,000 ???

[Ricboff]

yeah, a political platform that includes decreased spending and increased taxation is DOA..


http://www.crfb.org/press-releases/budget-deal-may-be-worst-history


...fresh off the presses.....like fresh air...


Budget Deal May Be Worst in History



:monsters-

For Immediate Release
According to press reports, Congress and the President are close to a deal that would lift discretionary spending caps by $320 billion over the next two years. Depending on the details, this increase could add about $2 trillion to projected debt levels over the next decade, yet the agreement is reported to include less than $80 billion in offsets. The following is a statement from Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:


As we understand it, this agreement is a total abdication of fiscal responsibility by Congress and the President. It may end up being the worst budget agreement in our nation’s history, proposed at a time when our fiscal conditions are already precarious.
If this deal passes, President Trump will have increased discretionary spending by as much as 22 percent over his first term, :monsters- and enshrine trillion-dollar deficits into law.
Members of Congress should cancel their summer recess and return to the negotiating table for a better deal. If they don’t, those who support this deal should hang their heads in total shame as they bolt town. This deal would amount to nothing short of fiscal sabotage.
President Trump should reject this plan and honor his words from last year after signing the 2018 omnibus bill, when he said he would “never sign another bill like this again.” (.....um, where do i sign? ..)
There was a time when Republicans insisted on a dollar of spending cuts for every dollar increase in the debt limit. It’s hard to believe they are now considering the opposite – attaching $2 trillion of spending increases to a similar-sized debt limit hike.




when do these chaps from 'The Committe for a Responsible Federal Budget ' throw in the towel?

keep in mind, UE is at historic lows


...............


Draghi speaks today....

 

[Ricboff]

ICONIC Boeing

BA

1 decade monthly

earnigs nghtmare yesterday, stock beatened down, and a further beating today

the compnay's 737 Max killed 350 people , 2 different flights. Hundreds of their 737 fleet sit idle, regulators saying; 'this plane aint going anywhere'

35% drop in rev this quarter, 3 billion loss


CEO Dennis Muilenburg: “This is a defining moment for Boeing.”....lol


uptrend is still intact, double bottom had formed on the daily chart ..$340 a critical hold level.

 

[NorthernStar]

ICONIC Boeing

BA

1 decade monthly

earnigs nghtmare yesterday, stock beatened down, and a further beating today

the compnay's 737 Max killed 350 people , 2 different flights. Hundreds of their 737 fleet sit idle, regulators saying; 'this plane aint going anywhere'

35% drop in rev this quarter, 3 billion loss


CEO Dennis Muilenburg: “This is a defining moment for Boeing.”....lol


uptrend is still intact, double bottom had formed on the daily chart ..$340 a critical hold level.

After 911 the stock market got pounded. Boeing got pounded even more. The news made it out like people would quit flying and sales would slump. I remember telling a friend of mine that they have it all wrong......there are planes that need to be replaced. Of course the stock market bounced back and Boeing recovered too. So investing in Boeing paid a much bigger return than other stocks that dipped after 911.

Boeing isnt going anywhere and the entry level to get into the airplane business is way too high. There is very little competition for them. Their stock has performed very well. This is a buying opportunity.

 

[Ricboff]

After 911 the stock market got pounded. Boeing got pounded even more. The news made it out like people would quit flying and sales would slump. I remember telling a friend of mine that they have it all wrong......there are planes that need to be replaced. Of course the stock market bounced back and Boeing recovered too. So investing in Boeing paid a much bigger return than other stocks that dipped after 911.

Boeing isnt going anywhere and the entry level to get into the airplane business is way too high. There is very little competition for them. Their stock has performed very well. This is a buying opportunity.

then plan your entry, and do it in segments. TRYING times for this giant

BA

6 month daily

obvious shit show since March (news of the secodn crash), with a large gap just below $415 which will be a magnet once she finally has investor confidence back. Friday was yet another down day for BA (with the markets breaking to highs), HOWEVER breadth of the candle much smaller, and presents with an indecision candle at the low end of a channel. For the VERY high risk tolerant, a first tranche buy could be made on Friday (i would not). As i said in my previous entry, $340 is a critical hold, and from the chart, now you see why. Since mid-May its channeling between $375-$340 ish.
A MASSIVE event takes place on Wed that can effect the market ; Powell. The market has priced in 25 basis pts drop . He needs to deliver this or else equities and metals tank. If he were to go 50 ? ( unlikely), the SPY will fly and likely take flounders with it, like BA . if he goes 25 , then choice of words (more or less dovish)will dictate what the markets do

china/usa trade meeting on Monday

GL

 

[Ricboff]

well Northern Star dont know if u bought BA, if looking for an entry day, today at 3:45 pm a bullish candle formed; bullish engulfing pattern that engulfs TWO bodies. AN ARMY of buyers came to defend $340, reinforcing this level. 1st tranche could have been today (unless one is fearful of Powell tomorrow). 2nd tracnhe above $380 (limit buy order, who knows if and when it gets filled).


Powell tomorrow..........A MASSIVE day for market enthusiansts

 

[Ricboff]

anyone want to question the power of the Fed?

 

[Ricboff]

breathtaking day on the market. cuts 25 basis points (first Fed cut since 2008) and the market was overall flat, slightly down. Powell starts to chat (stating this aint necessarily the start of a rate cutting cycle) and the market unraveling occurred , at a fantastic pace ; equities, metals, miners. BEATDOWN. Trump was likely bouncing off walls. A less dovish tone and the markets tank violently despite the cut? lol


SPY


where will the dust settle? with great volatility comes opportunity.

6 mth daily with 50 SMA

best case scenario- doesnt form a lower low from today's candle.
next , fill the gap at just under $294 and starts an ascent
next, tests the 50 SMA , and bounces (BETTER HOLD THIS)..if it doesnt , likely to head to the .618 fibo level (2871.58 on the es)

look at today's volume,.....@)

my 2 cents




VIX

6 mth daily

looking forward to seeing the candles at 3:50ish tomorrow popcorn-eatinggif (job's data is Friday)

 

[Michelangelo]

Do you make a lot of money trading the market, Ric?

 

[PatsFan1283]

Rates are going to 0 either way, market just wanted to give Powell some extra chin music on the way down.

 

[Ricboff]

[FONT=&quot]mich, its a hobby, enjoy it. I swing trade (time frame is usually short, days to weeks) and wouldnt continue if it wasnt profitable . I have a trading account, and rules that i follow. O[/FONT][FONT=&quot]nce a position is taken,t[/FONT][FONT=&quot]here is NO flexibility to the downside ; stop loss is in place-- emotion is gone .Only flexibility is to the upside even tho i have targets from the get go, ; i'll exit earlier/add to, etc. . I dont trade individual stocks, only major indices and sectors via etfs. Commodities occasionally with much much tighter requirements for entry .Do set targets for the yr, provides a framework. My target is a conservative 1% per month.


[/FONT]

 

[Ricboff]

if anyone was wondering what just happened to the market?

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump<small class="time" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(101, 119, 134); margin-right: 5px; white-space: nowrap;"> 26m26 minutes ago</small><button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover dropdown-toggle js-dropdown-toggle" type="button" aria-haspopup="true" style="color: rgb(101, 119, 134); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; padding: 2px 9px; transition: box-shadow 0.15s ease-in-out 0s; position: relative;">More
</button>


...during the talks the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country. This does not include the 250 Billion Dollars already Tariffed at 25%...




lol


was immediately followed with this, ...in the hope the markets dont overract

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump<small class="time" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(101, 119, 134); margin-right: 5px; white-space: nowrap;"> 27m27 minutes ago</small><button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover dropdown-toggle js-dropdown-toggle" type="button" aria-haspopup="true" style="color: rgb(101, 119, 134); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; padding: 2px 9px; transition: box-shadow 0.15s ease-in-out 0s; position: relative;">More
</button>


...We look forward to continuing our positive dialogue with China on a comprehensive Trade Deal, and feel that the future between our two countries will be a very bright one!


@)

 

[Ricboff]

SPY has made a lower low, the close should be wild.

gold bugs will DEFINITELY be voting Trump for 2020 @)

 

[Ricboff]

3:15 and absolute STUNNING day ... the day is not done

have a look at these two charts;

USO

6 month daily

GLD

6 month daily

look at the fuckin' breadth of those candles

 

[Michelangelo]

Thanks for the response, Ric.

Sounds like a very conservative but winning approach.

Curious as to why you don't trade individual stocks.

 

[Ricboff]

Thanks for the response, Ric.

Sounds like a very conservative but winning approach.

Curious as to why you don't trade individual stocks.

comfort/interest , and time. We all find our niche, what works for us. Am comfortable with systematic risk (market risk), that's it. Time is a biggie as well, as i have a job, grant it a 4day week . Simply scan the short list of etfs at 3:45 pm (allowing the day's candle to form) and make a call. Quick. Simple. I do prep wprk over the weekend, but again its quick as i'm not doing any dd on individual stocks. .................just trying to enjoy my remaining years Mich, ...... dagone.....



........................

'best case scenario- doesnt form a lower low from today's candle. '

STICK A FORK IN this. And today's candle is ugly with increasign volume. Jobs report tomorrow; too cold or too hot likely no good. Powell not soothing investors and some fuel added today to the trade issues with China and , well.....investor sentiment not rosy early in Aug. A month historically that's negative as depicted in post #90. US/China trade stuff on hold till Sept.......does China retaliate after today?


popcorn-eatinggif

 

[Ricboff]

China’s spokesperson at the foreign ministry, Hua Chunying, said at a daily press briefing that Beijing would have to take countermeasures if the U.S. was committed to putting more tariffs on Chinese goods, Reuters reported.

NOT GOOD

.................

Beijing has introduced a series of measures such as monetary policy easing and tax cuts to support its economy. Further actions will likely be in the form of fiscal stimulus, Moe said, adding that some relaxation in property measures could be on the cards.


‘Waiting it out’

Analysts from Citi said the latest round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods would reduce China’s exports by 2.7% and slash GDP growth by 50 basis points. That’s on top of the economic damage already caused by previous rounds of tariffs, the analysts wrote in a late Thursday note.
Even then, the analysts said they expect Beijing to “formally use the strategy of waiting it out” rather than “giving in” to Washington’s demands. That means monetary policy will likely become more accommodative, and fiscal policies focusing on infrastructure investment and lifting rural consumption will “play a more proactive role” in supporting growth, according to Citi.
An economist from Dutch bank ING, Iris Pang, wrote in a Friday note that China may want to drag out the tariff fight with the U.S. because “a full-blown trade war is unlikely to help President Trump’s chances” in the 2020 election.
“We believe China’s strategy in this trade war escalation will be to slow down the pace of negotiation and tit-for-tat retaliation,” she said. “This could lengthen the process of retaliation until the upcoming US Presidential Election.”

................


If business surveys have been clear about anything it’s that American business is nervous about trade. The closely watched Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey dipped again in July and is teetering on contraction territory, while the Federal Reserve’s key manufacturing gauge has fallen for consecutive quarters.

Morgan Stanley strategists said the latest round of tariffs, if implemented, would contribute to “slowbalization,” or a continuation of lackluster growth, and could hasten a U.S. recession in as soon as three quarters.
“One key reason: about 68% of the next goods tariffed will be consumer goods and autos/parts, with more potential for immediate impact to the economy,” Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Zezas said in a note


A further reminder came in last week’s GDP report.
The economy rose 2.1% in the second quarter, but the internals showed a clear tariff impact. Exports slumped 5.2% for the quarter and nonresidential investment, a key metric for business spending, dropped 0.6% for its worst showing since early 2016.
With Thursday’s news of a trade escalation comes another sign that the tariff issue is unlikely to go away soon.
“Tariffs are affecting the part of the U.S. economy that is most integrated into world trade,” Adams said. “This latest increase in tariffs increases the likelihood that higher trade barriers are the new status quo.”
As for more specific impacts, Adams sees the tariffs raising inflation and lowering disposable income, which increased just 2.5% in the second quarter, its lowest rise in nearly two years.
He also projects a hit to consumption as well as increased margin pressure, particularly for heavy exporters. Q2 earnings season hasn’t been kind to S&P 500 companies that generate more than half their sales outside the U.S., with profits down 13.6% from a year ago.



...................


gotta hold the 50 SMA. spy es did not break it overnight (BOUNCED OFF IT) may retest it today, another lower low but a smaller red candle into support....big day

 

[Ricboff]

breathtaking day on the market. cuts 25 basis points (first Fed cut since 2008) and the market was overall flat, slightly down. Powell starts to chat (stating this aint necessarily the start of a rate cutting cycle) and the market unraveling occurred , at a fantastic pace ; equities, metals, miners. BEATDOWN. Trump was likely bouncing off walls. A less dovish tone and the markets tank violently despite the cut? lol


SPY


where will the dust settle? with great volatility comes opportunity.

6 mth daily with 50 SMA

best case scenario- doesnt form a lower low from today's candle.
next , fill the gap at just under $294 and starts an ascent
next, tests the 50 SMA , and bounces (BETTER HOLD THIS)..if it doesnt , likely to head to the .618 fibo level (2871.58 on the es)
















)

look where it closed, lol. RECLAIMS the 50 SMA, with a bit of a tail as buyers coming off Friday's low. Lower volume, selling pressure subsiding, smaller red candle....getting oversold, stretched from 20 SMA/8 EMA -- all Susgestive of a swing low. Keep in mind there's no tailwind to send these markets to highs; powell did not make investors happy , trade war on hold unitl Sept , much of earning season is behind us(few biggies this week remain). Looking for a higher high or an inside candle. CANNOT form a lower low



last week was the WORST WEEK FOR THE MARKETS for 2019--- a cocktail of Powell and a Trump tweet

since the start of 2018 there has been THREE 10% pullbacks, and a 7% . 2 of those 10% pullbacks were pretty much back to back-- 20% beatdown not seen since 2008.....................how this all for volatility? @)

 

[PatsFan1283]

Oct-Dec '18 was around 20% for S&P before Powell turned dovish

 

[Ricboff]

yupper-- 10%, then a bit a pause then BOOM drop another 10%...Powell saved the day in early Jan.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Gold finally catching a bid as China gives US the finger