Guess the day the DOW hits 29,000 ???

[Ricboff]

wow, massive spike on the spy, quickly looking for the headliner..................... fresh off the presses and buy buttons were triggered.............


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...tter-as-trade-talks-begin-2019-05-09?mod=bnbh


[h=3]Trump says it's still possible to strike trade deal with China this week[/h]
[h=1]Trump says Xi wrote him 'beautiful letter' as trade talks begin[/h]



..i love this shit

 

[Ricboff]

Stocks - Dow Set to Plunge at Opening as Trade War Escalates

https://www.investing.com/news/stoc...nge-at-opening-as-trade-war-escalates-1865896

Trump warned China on Sunday that Beijing should reach a deal now instead of hoping he won’t win his 2020 reelection campaign. “Would be wise for them to act now, but love collecting big tariffs,” the president tweeted.

............lol


China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang promised that China would “never surrender” to external pressure, although he stopped short of providing immediate details on planned retaliatory tariffs.
Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of China’s state-controlled Global Times, indicated that the reason for the lack of details was because Beijing was “drafting a plan that will have precise effects, making sure it hits the US while minimizing damage to itself."



spy futures are approaching Friday's low of the day.


going to be a fun day on the markets ....

 

[Ricboff]

levels to watch on the SPY;

Friday's low. Don't want to form a lower low. Then, 2815- this is a triple resistance level, HUGE level. A break here and you can bank a test of 200 SMA

Europe is holding relatively well, so this isnt an overall collapse,......... so far.

again very very headline sensitive market . We are a tweet away from a reversal.....LMFAO

 

[RenoChazz]

Trumps going Bernie Sanders on us, needs to stop. the Economy was the on thing he was doing right, and it's so easy to do.... do nothing

 

[Coldweather]

It will hit 30,000 + By Jan 7, 2020 IMO! Caz Trump rocks! cheersgifcheersgifcheersgifcheersgifcheersgif

 

[Ricboff]

we have various nice candles forming (11:40am), but its very early. Most notably on USO- a bullish harami , reclaiming its 200 sma, 50 sma, AND the 8 EMA.......we shall see whats she looks like at 3:50pm.......dagone......

 

[Ricboff]

a HUGE day on the markets today as a CRITICAL level was breached, but reclaimed near the end of the day. The SPY tested and held its 200 SMA. On the weekly, ANOTHER lower low has occurred.


SPY

1 yr daily

two gaps to be filled (todays and just under 285) and with an underlying that historically rises 70% of the time, VERY VERY confident these gaps fill. One with HIGH risk tolerance? today at 3:55 pm is an entry point, solid bounce off the 200 and oversold. No way at a full position as no confirmed swing low. Tomorrow ; dont form a lower low, and certainly no close below the 200 SMA; all bets off, OUT. Ideally a higher high. The uptrending diagonal has been breached on the SPY this is clear and fact.

violent, ugly month of May for the markets....


SPY

2 yr weekly

NOT GOOD......a positive thrusday and friday and this week's candle may turn into a hammer candle, which would be real good. Dont see anything to ignite a major change in investor sentiment fueling the markets to new highs; need Xi and Trump to hug.....The markets are a proxy for Trump, as i said earlier id be STUNNED if a deal does not ultimately get done. For now, the market has spoken ..LOUDLY..

........................


Investing.com - U.S. stocks tumbled Wednesday as the U.S.-China trade war intensified after Beijing signaled it was ready to retaliate against Washington by halting exports of rare-earth metals.
The S&P 500 slumped 0.69%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.79%, and the Dowplunged 0.87%.
China is "seriously" mulling a ban on exports of rare-earth exports to the U.S. and may also implement other countermeasures, the editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a newspaper associated with China's Communist Party, said in a tweet.
A ban on exports of rare-earth metals, 17 vital commodities used in production across a number of U.S. sectors, including oil refining, electronics and the glass industry, will likely trigger a response from Washington and prolong the trade war between the two nations.
Trade-sensitive stocks like Boeing (NYSE:BA), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and 3M (NYSE:MMM) reflected the jitters on trade, closing lower on the day. Boeing, off 1.7%, trimmed 41 points from the Dow.

 

[5teamparlay]

Im going to guess May 23rd 2019





http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1077845

okay maybe may 23 2020

 

[Ricboff]

well, historically the 3rd yr of a presidential cycle (AFTER the midterm elections) is very bullish for stocks.

dating back to 1950;

12 months after the midterms the market has been up 100% of the time. Perfecto. AVERAGING +14.90%. 1.5 yrs later ? also up 100% of the time, AVERAGING +20.57%

the SPY closed Nov 7 th 2018 (after the midterms) at 278.15

it closed today at 278.27


popcorn-eatinggif

 

[Hamilbet]

well, historically the 3rd yr of a presidential cycle (AFTER the midterm elections) is very bullish for stocks.

dating back to 1950;

12 months after the midterms the market has been up 100% of the time. Perfecto. AVERAGING +14.90%. 1.5 yrs later ? also up 100% of the time, AVERAGING +20.57%

the SPY closed Nov 7 th 2018 (after the midterms) at 278.15

it closed today at 278.27


popcorn-eatinggif

Interesting. Any additional clarification on that metric?

Compared to what? 4 years prior, the year before, the first day of the new POTUS being sworn in, etc?

Does that account for inflation?

Just trying to understand.

 

[kidman232]

suprised it finished the day in the green

 

[Ricboff]

Interesting. Any additional clarification on that metric?

Compared to what? 4 years prior, the year before, the first day of the new POTUS being sworn in, etc?

Does that account for inflation?

Just trying to understand.

from the end of the mid-term elections to 365 days later. That is, buy the SPY Nov 7, 2018. And come Nov 7, 2019, ON AVERAGE, your investment will grow 14.90%. It has never lost money since 1950 ........

 

[Ricboff]

7:30 pm yesterday two long red candles on e-mini futures, looked for the headline and boom ; tariffs on mexico , lol........ China knows damn well the sensitivity of US markets to China trade news and are methodically playing . Truly insane times we are in


investor sentiment drives markets , with fear being MUCH MUCH more powerful than greed . geo-politically, sentiment is a MESS

going to be a WILD DAY TODAY..... May even be a shakeout....


.............

the US does have the Infrastructure Spending Spree Bill as an ace , no?


IT'S ONLY MAY, AND THE FEDERAL DEFICIT IS ALREADY HIGHER THAN IN ALL BUT FIVE FULL-YEAR DEFICITS IN U.S. HISTORY



If President Donald Trump’s spending and tax policies continue apace, a report by the Congressional Budget Office out Thursday found, the U.S. national debt will rise from 78 percent of the economy to 105 percent of the economy over the next decade.
“Beyond 2029, if current laws remained in place, deficits would grow, driving debt to its highest levels in the nation’s history,” according the report.
The news comes as the country approaches the halfway mark in the current fiscal year. Recent data from the Treasury Department shows the U.S. is already running a deficit of $691 billion. That's already higher than all but five full-year deficits in U.S. history, according to an analysis by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a bipartisan nonprofit that focuses on the national debt.

Since taking office in 2017, President Donald Trump has signed a $1.2 trillion tax cut into effect and proposed large spending hikes in his budget outlines. Those hikes in outlays and cuts to revenue were responsible for 60 percent of this year's budget deficit, according to analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Without this Trump administration–approved legislation, the analysis found, this year's budget deficit would have reached its lowest levels since 2007, at about $360 billion instead of nearly $1 trillion.
Former deficit hawk Mick Mulvaney, who is doing double duty as both the president’s acting chief of staff and director of the Office of Management and Budget, admitted to The Atlantic last week that the Trump administration was “spending a bunch of money on stuff we’re not supposed to.” But, he said, “at least I’m losing at the very highest levels.”
As debt increases, so do interest payments, which then crowd out other parts of the budget to the point where interest payments on the national debt will soon exceed our national defense budget.
“Our growing debt burden will reduce opportunity, lower incomes, and only make it harder to fund important priorities in the future. While our economy is growing, we should be taking advantage of the opportunity to begin to manage our debt problem,” wrote Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.
The U.S. is currently headed toward unchartered waters, said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

“How many more dire warnings will it take before our leaders address the nation’s dismal fiscal picture?" said MacGuineas in a statement. "Rather than addressing the rapid growth of health and retirement costs, the last Congress cut taxes and increased spending by a combined $2.4 trillion.


Amid concerns about increased deficit and debt, the current administration is also looking to invest heavily in infrastructure. President Trump met with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer this week to discuss a bipartisan infrastructure bill. The group agreed to spend $2 trillion on the legislation but did not hammer out any policy specifics.
MacGuineas expressed concerns about what such spending could mean in the long run. “Now we’re talking about $2 trillion more of spending, and as much as $2 trillion on top of that for infrastructure, with virtually no word of how we will pay for them," she said. "At some point the fiscal recklessness has to stop.”

.............

recklessness?....well that maybe a bit harsh..........LOL

 

[Ricboff]

Former deficit hawk Mick Mulvaney, who is doing double duty as both the president’s acting chief of staff and director of the Office of Management and Budget, admitted to The Atlantic last week that the Trump administration was “spending a bunch of money on stuff we’re not supposed to.” But, he said, “at least I’m losing at the very highest levels.”

LMFAO....cant get that shit out of my head and its 11:00 am already....:missingte

 

[JOH]

Last post deleted due to formatting issue

 

[kidman232]

Rebound day?

 

[Ricboff]

current candles;

spy- gap up, and straight buying, may reclaim the 8 ema . very bullish
qqq- piercing candle formation, below the 8 ema but reclaiming the 200 SMA. Bullish

keep in mind , short term stuff only. No resolution with China/USA. Tariffs now on Mexico. Both add up to slower growth. Global concerns of recession abound. Fed will be dropping rates for sure

btw; those candles are not confirmed as the day is very young

my 2 cents

 

[Ricboff]

to be clear; concerns are for a GLOBAL recession. Slower growth rates all around. I believe Xi and Trump meet at the G20 late this month.

 

[kidman232]

Strong finish to the day, can it make a run

 

[RenoChazz]

July 3rd