Guess the day the DOW hits 29,000 ???

Ricboff · Aug 26, 2019

haha, could be. We shall see. What i can say with a high level of certainty is that to be re-elected in 2020 he needs no recesion and no stock market collapse as we saw in 2018. I'd imagine most would agree on this. This is why i've said repeatedly they will throw the kitchen sink to prevent a recession , keep the markets aflaot . We are seeing this - there is ZERO regard to the national debt, in fact the debt ceiling has been removed for two yrs. Its Spend City

anyway, China made a clear statement on Friday, that they are willign to play nasty. First a little background for those that dont follow. Trump added a 'small' 5% additional tariffs in early Aug (punished the markets) , the Chinese stated within 48 hours that they'd need to retaliate . They patiently waited to release their retaliatory tariffs and finally did so last friday at 8:30am ET (the day Powell spoke), -- whihc is like 8:30 pm in China, lol. Obviously an attempt to hurt the USA markets. They know damn well Trump is impulsive and let him take care of the rest-- Blood bath Friday

in the end, imo, these two countries need to find common ground. The silly bravado is hurting the markets. I'd be shocked if a deal isnt done in due time.......

and to add, China is playing a dangerous game here...

you think the market @)

is important to Trump ?

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump<small class="time" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(101, 119, 134); margin-right: 5px; white-space: nowrap;"> 13h13 hours ago</small><button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover dropdown-toggle js-dropdown-toggle" type="button" aria-haspopup="true" style="color: rgb(101, 119, 134); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; padding: 2px 9px; transition: box-shadow 0.15s ease-in-out 0s; position: relative;">More
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My Stock Market gains must be judged from the day after the Election, November 9, 2016, where the Market went up big after the win, and because of the win. Had my opponent won, CRASH!

Ricboff · Aug 27, 2019

the angry bravado has been toned down, and nothing but love tweets from the G7 has stabilized the capital markets

SPY

3 month daily

channeling......levels are very very clear from the chart..................................................next big events (less tweets of course) are FOMC and US/China trade meeting in Sept , ah to be a fly in the wall at that @)

until then...................

PatsFan1283 · Aug 27, 2019

PatsFan1283 said:
Next bounce is gonna be inflationary via Fed easing and probably start buying corporate bonds sooner than later as that debt is a mess. Maybe munis.

Metal bull finally here. Took long enough.

Shrug

Ricboff · Aug 27, 2019

that had to shut her down on opening day.....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/costco-china-store-crowding-1.5261119

Crowds force Costco to shut 1st China store early on opening day

U.S. warehouse retailer Costco Wholesale Corp. was forced to shut its first store in China early on its opening day Tuesday, according to state media, after large crowds flocked through the door and caused traffic jams in the Shanghai neighborhood.
Videos posted on Chinese social media showed thousands of people crowding the aisles of the store in Shanghai's Minhang district, while signs outside warned incoming shoppers that they might have to wait three hours to park. :monsters-
<section id="inread-wrapper-id-6" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"></section>One nearby school sent out an advisory to parents warning them about the traffic conditions. "Please expect the student dismissal this afternoon to be severely delayed due to the grand opening of Costco Supermarket," said the message.
The Paper, a media outlet run by the Shanghai government, reported on social media at 2:43 p.m. local time that the store had shut early, citing the local district government.
"Due to the extremely large crowds at the newly opened supermarket, for the safety of the public we urge that residents consume in a rational manner and choose to go shopping at an off-peak time," it quoted government officials as saying.

Costco did not immediately respond to a Reuters' request for comment.
Costco announced last month that it would open its first store in China. It first entered the country in 2014 through opening an online store on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.'s Tmall online marketplace.
Its busy first day came as other big-name Western retailers such as Amazon, Tesco Plc and Carrefour, are retreating from China having struggled to win market share in the face of strong competition from domestic rivals.

COST

2 yr weekly

Ricboff · Aug 28, 2019

wild ...............

Ricboff · Aug 30, 2019

UUP forming a hammer pattern at a top on the monthly chart (post #112), probability is not in favor of a breakout, likely at a swing high. Got to get below the 8 EMA tho

294 BIG BIG BIGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG number on the SPY

Ricboff · Sep 5, 2019

Ricboff said:
SPY

3 month daily

channeling......levels are very very clear from the chart.................................................

'294 BIG BIG BIGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG number on the SPY'

BOOM!!!!! MASSIVE gap up on news of further China/US meetings slated for Oct, lol, .............the fear premium dropped like a ton of bricks sending the precious metals into a beatdown as well as bonds. $294 becomes a floor for the SPY. Powell speaks from Switzerland tomorrow. Looking like The Shanghai Accord Part II , he may............ add fuel tomorrow Folks the Japanization of the Eurozone and N America is well well underway :103631605

Cabot Links, Nova Scotia

Ricboff · Sep 6, 2019

yucky US jobs report , not good ,add that to manufacturing data and the The Writing is on the wall for global growth, data is pouring in from all around the globe. Powell speaks at 12:30pm from across the pond. He's got to take the USD down, this is Jan-Feb 2016 all over again.

....

Ricboff · Sep 10, 2019

been a traders market for awhile now (late July)

precious metals to present a buying opportunity real soon, imo. Big event Thursday as Super Mario speaks (eurozone is much worse off than N American, the 30yr german bond is paying negatively,,,world is fucked gentlemen...DEBT DOES have consequences), not sure if his words will even impact the markets , we shall see. The event liekly to impact the precious metals

GLD

3 mth daily

smaller sized red candles, decreasing to a support level with deccreasing volume. Cant buy on yesterday's candle, no way. Its BELOW the 8 EMA (this is a negative, the curved line). It's lost the $1500 level. Today is a big day, if ti loses this level it cuols lose another 2%ish and re-test $139.........gdx has is pullign back even more aggressively, not surprisingly . Gdx/gld on a linear regression channel since June has gdx way way way from normal, two standard deviations away! It will rebound like a lengthned elastic band

QQQ

3 mth daily

cant break $193 ish with a BIG GAP just below. IF it breaks yesterdays low, looking for the gap to fill and a bounce off the 8 ema, ...impossible to buy at 3:50pm yesterday, lol...................APPL shows of tis new gear at 10am , may give the qqq'a push?

the game has become so global, the world is changing......fuckin Vietnam!!!!!!!

http://knparadise.com/en-US/home

a Greg Norman designed coures;

Ricboff · Sep 10, 2019

typo; qqq's cant break its current ceiling, which is $192.25 ish (NOT $193, pretty clear from the chart). Note that bounce off the 8ema and gap fill could happen intra-day...just sayin'

Ricboff · Sep 10, 2019

Ricboff said:
typo; qqq's cant break its current ceiling, which is $192.25 ish (NOT $193, pretty clear from the chart). Note that bounce off the 8ema and gap fill could happen intra-day...just sayin'

......and out...

Ricboff · Sep 10, 2019

the last 5 min of the day was wild. Rush buying into the close for the equity markets with defensives like TLT and GLD tanking

NOT a good day for GLD as it closed at the low of the day with highER vol and broke support. Had formed a doji at midday but the sellers won the day. Looks like its headed to possibly indeed test $139 before critical Thursday, ECB..

Analysts divided on ECB stimulus prospects amid conflicting tones from officials

The European Central Bank’s Governing Body will conclude its policy meeting on September 12, with officials widely expected to cut interest rates and unveil fresh economic stimulus measures.
Earlier in the summer, ECB President Mario Draghi said he was looking at further options to prop up the 19-member euro zone economy.
However, ECB officials have dampened hopes of a substantial stimulus package of late.

nothing short of brilliant, ..:29 sec mark....

....what a swing

Ricboff · Sep 11, 2019

fairly nice candle forming on GLD, the day is still young......ECB tomorrow...... :103631605

Ricboff · Sep 11, 2019

LOOOOOOOOOOOOONG green candle on the SPY ES ........quick look for a headline or a tweet...........

[FONT=&quot]Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump<small class="time" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(101, 119, 134); margin-right: 5px; white-space: nowrap;"> 2h2 hours ago</small><button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover dropdown-toggle js-dropdown-toggle" type="button" aria-haspopup="true" style="color: rgb(101, 119, 134); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; padding: 2px 9px; transition: box-shadow 0.15s ease-in-out 0s; position: relative;">More
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[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]....on October 1st, we have agreed, as a gesture of good will, to move the increased Tariffs on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods (25% to 30%), from October 1st to October 15th.
[/FONT]

LOL. ADD Super Mario's speech tomorrow and is there enough fuel to break to all-time highs?...............how can you not love this shit?

his swan song is tomorrow ........

perhaps in retirement he visits this resort , ..........in his beautiful home country .....Italy

Ricboff · Sep 13, 2019

Ricboff said:
ACWI (global stock index)

3 yr weekly

not surprisingly low volume headed into Powell's Jackson Hole speech...everyone waiting with bated breath. As we can clearly see the global equity market has done largely nothing since Feb 2018, channeling between $75 and $70 (less the Dec meltdown, of course). And presents with an indecision candle heading into tomorrow ...downside? CANNOT break $69.70 ish. If she does, look out...could free fall in the next while to $66.20ish. Upside? Powell pleases the market (retraces his last speech, lol, states we are indeed in a rate cutting cycle) and voila, a very nice weekly candle and up to test $75, a powerful ceiling. From the chart the upside risk (unitl resistance is hit) is twice as small as the downside risk

if Powell delivers, one area that is likely to outperform is IWM on a relative basis , imo. If you were to plot a price regression channel for IWN dating back to Jan 2016, its current price is two standard deviations from 'normal' (lower side ). This is the SAME scenario as in Jan 2016; at that time, Yellen delivered , IWN outperformed other areas .

'

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...ps-since-2016-2019-09-11?mod=mw_theo_homepage

The Dow and S&P 500 haven’t been this walloped by small-caps since 2016

linear regression channels provide valuable information. Tells us how price of A is behaving relative to price of B over of specified time period. This very simple analysis (its available at any good brokerage platform) can shed light as to value, as outlined in the previously posted bold above that has since delivered.

Ricboff · Sep 14, 2019

markets trying to bang through the all-time highs, they could not break last week. There IS AN EVENT next week that can do it- Powell. So , needless to say, Wed is huge. Looking for low volume , small candles headed into it

VIX

3 month daily

there's a gap at around 19-- gaps on the VIX fill. Is what it is. The VIX is inversely related to the equity markets (DIA,SPY)

DIA

3 month daily

doji on Thursday, spinning top on Friday on low volume, stretched from the 20 SMA, oversold on various indicators. AND at a resistance. Probability is not on its side to break through, BUT it can, it will need an event to do so (ie., Powell next week). For me, this is a great time to sell calls on SPY/DIA. Large gap just below. Also keep in mind so far for Sept the SPY is up 2.7%, which if nothing were to change?Sept 2019 would be an outlier, as historically over the last 50 yrs the month of September has been negative for returns

Ricboff · Sep 14, 2019

correction: overbought, NOT oversold (DIA, as well as the SPY, IWM..etc)

Ricboff · Sep 14, 2019

boy oh boy where does OIL open tomorrow?...going to have some WILD volatility...energy equities to have some fun Monday.......

Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site

Half of Saudi Arabia's oil production has gone offline following a surprise drone strike.
(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia’s oil production was cut by half after a swarm of explosive drones struck at the heart of the kingdom’s energy industry and set the world’s biggest crude-processing plant ablaze -- an attack blamed on Iran by the top U.S. diplomat.
Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, who’ve launched several drone attacks on Saudi targets in the past, claimed responsibility for the assault on the kingdom’s Abqaiq plant.
U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said in a tweet there’s no evidence the attacks came from Yemen and blamed Iran directly, but didn’t offer evidence for that conclusion either. President Donald Trump spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman by telephone but hasn’t commented directly. Dow Jones reported that Saudi and U.S. officials are investigating the possibility that cruise missiles were launched from Iraq, which is much closer than Yemen.
About 50% of Saudi Arabia’s oil production, representing about 5.7 million barrels per day, has been halted for now due, SPA news agency said, citing the kingdom’s Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman. Gas output was also disrupted, with 2 billion cubic feet in daily output, about half of normal production, stopped by the attack, Abdulaziz said. Operations in Abqaiq and Khurais are halted for now.
“Abqaiq is the heart of the system and they just had a heart attack,” said Roger Diwan, a veteran OPEC watcher at consultant IHS Markit.
The biggest attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure since Iraq’s Saddam Hussein fired Scud missiles into the kingdom during the first Gulf War, the drone strike highlights the vulnerability of the network of fields, pipeline and ports that supply 10% of the world’s crude oil. A prolonged outage at Abqaiq, where crude from several of the country’s largest oil fields is processed before being shipped to export terminals, would jolt global energy markets.
“For the oil market, if not the global economy, Abqaiq is the single most valuable piece of real estate on planet earth,” Bob McNally, head of Rapid Energy Group in Washington.

<twitter-widget class="twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered" id="twitter-widget-0" data-tweet-id="1172891517826080769" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; position: static; visibility: visible; display: block; transform: rotate(0deg); max-width: 100%; width: 500px; min-width: 220px; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;">

............

Saudi's yet to make a statement of the extent of the damage, from what im reading

</twitter-widget>

Ricboff · Sep 15, 2019

what a finish across the pond at The Solheim Cup, are you fucking kidding me? The Euros needed a mild miracle; two matches left both were all square late and they needed to won BOTH!!.....short bulldog Law takes the lead,wins her match then it comes down to veteran Suzanne Pattersen Vs Marina Alex all square on the tee at 18. . She was a captains pick, hardly plays anymore and at age 38 many were critical of the pick.

Pettersen hits a wedge to 7 feet. Nails the put to win it, ............what a turnaround, from seemingly defeat to triumph...

“This is it; professionally, I’m done,” said the 38-year-old. “This is perfect closure. That’s it, I’m done. This is a good end to a great career.”

“I always had faith in Suzann,” said Matthew. “It was just unbelievable. There has never been a better moment.”

..................

OIL is up 9.50% , lol......

Ricboff · Sep 20, 2019

equities are at ceilings...its either break, consolidate or sharp move down. Powell dropped rates ,AGAIN, global growth is slowing. Its clear the Central Bankers will stimulate if need be. But the Powell event was not enough to send markets to all time highs, no great candle on Thursday. The white elephant in the room is China/US trade impasse. This resolution would, imo.

ACWI (GLOBAL equity market)

6 mth daily

certainly not a good candle to buy on. Any pullback , levels to watch are; $73.85ish, then a biggie-$74.15. Healthy chart and STILL above the 8 ema (well above the 50 and 200 with both rising).

3 yr weekly