Guess the day the DOW hits 29,000 ???

[Ricboff]

Its blown past the .618 fibro level. This iS AN ANGRY market, BUT i would not call it a meltdown- if it was we'd see money head to the USD and bonds tank as well. Not seeing that.....yet

287.50 could not hold

285 needs to hold.


a tweet in Dec helped to unravel the market (after the G20 meeting in Brasil). Did it again at the May 2019 high, and YET AGAIN here in Aug. I agree, China is here to play. Their economy is getting crushed, but it appears they are in NO RUSH to make a deal that they feel is 'not fair'. The longer this plays out, the greater the leverage China has, IMO. Trump has an election next yr,...... Xi?... no gotta worry about that shit.


so streched from the 8 ema , not stable, with stoi dipping below 20, last time that happened was early June .MAJOR gaps on indices get filled (today formed a BIG gap , on an index that rises 70% of the time). Patience, CAREFUL catching a falling knife intraday.....gotta let the dust settle. In time , wouldnt surprise me if we re-test the June lows- THAT needs to hold!!!!...think we channel for awhile, the question from what low level




TLT

3 yr weekly

money clearly heading to safety, break out

 

[tanner12oz]

Fyi as ugly as it was today most of my stocks had lighter then avg volume...

 

[PatsFan1283]

Next bounce is gonna be inflationary via Fed easing and probably start buying corporate bonds sooner than later as that debt is a mess. Maybe munis.

Metal bull finally here. Took long enough.

 

[Ricboff]

Fyi as ugly as it was today most of my stocks had lighter then avg volume...

awesome, here's hoping you are holding some gems!! “Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.” W Buffet


overall the market volume was highER than the previous day, gapped down with STRAIGHT selling. Pierced the 50 sma and two support levels like a hot knife through butter. We could test the 200 sma tomorrow!! Sharp vertical ascents/descents are not stable...is what it is.

 

[Ricboff]

spy es candle that has formed is very nice

 

[tanner12oz]

Today was productive If your a bull....yesterday not so much

 

[Ricboff]

A MASSIVE day tomorrow, a binary event folks; markets move significantly one way or the other, imo. 10 am Jackson Hole Symposium, MR POWELL is up........fun fact; in the 13 times Powel has spoken since appointed as the Chief,the markets have gone DOWN 11 times (on speech day) ; 85%


Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump<small class="time" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(101, 119, 134); margin-right: 5px; white-space: nowrap;"> Aug 19</small><button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover dropdown-toggle js-dropdown-toggle" type="button" aria-haspopup="true" style="color: rgb(101, 119, 134); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; padding: 2px 9px; transition: box-shadow 0.15s ease-in-out 0s; position: relative;">More
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.....The Fed Rate, over a fairly short period of time, should be reduced by at least 100 basis points, with perhaps some quantitative easing as well. If that happened, our Economy would be even better, and the World Economy would be greatly and quickly enhanced-good for everyone!


LOL!!!! he once called the National debt USA's greatest threat........... y'all think he fooled the Tea Party? @)




here's another rant from the President for 'The Committe for Responsible Federal Budget'

http://www.crfb.org/press-releases/budget-bill-caps-shameful-period-fiscal-recklessness
Budget Bill Caps Shameful Period of Fiscal Recklessness

For Immediate Release
The Senate passed a budget agreement Thursday to suspend the debt ceiling and raise discretionary spending caps for two years, sending the bill to President Trump who supports it. The following is a statement from Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Today's budget vote caps a shameful period of fiscal recklessness in Washington that is unprecedented in the context of our current fiscal state.
This legislation alone will cost $320 billion over two years and result in a 21 percent increase in discretionary spending since 2017. Over the next decade, this bill will add $1.7 trillion to projected debt.

Congress and the President have added $4.1 trillion to the debt since President Trump took office. As a result, deficits are more than double what they would have been without fiscally irresponsible tax cuts and spending increases.

Going forward, neither side can claim a mantle of responsible governing, and few have any moral ground to stand on – this is a bipartisan failure. A vote for this deal was a vote for fiscal irresponsibility and an abdication of leadership. Too few lawmakers are willing to stand on principle. For those who did vote for this bill, it’s hard to tell what principle was guiding them: the principle that you should not pay for what you spend, the principle that you should run up the debt to near-record levels even during an economic expansion, or the principle of generational theft?
With the national debt rising to historic levels – soon to overtake the size of our entire economy and beyond – and with our largest programs, Social Security and Medicare, spinning toward insolvency, our nation's answer is to make the problem worse at every turn.

Going forward, the choices are now going to get even tougher. Future Congresses and Presidents will have less room to enact big ideas – they will be tethered to cleaning up the past.
Throughout our history, this country has overcome the greatest of challenges. Unfortunately, our national debt is a self-inflicted wound. It will take the kind of leadership that currently doesn't exist in Washington to fix. But I am still hopeful there will soon be the kind of change needed to make it happen and that we do not wait until it is too late.


Maya MacGuineas

 

[michael777]

Thank You President Trump,because of you I made enough in the market to retire and never worry about money again.I got out today because I know the scum on the left will figure out a way to make the market crash.God Bless you Mr. President

 

[NorthernStar]

Thank You President Trump,because of you I made enough in the market to retire and never worry about money again.I got out today because I know the scum on the left will figure out a way to make the market crash.God Bless you Mr. President

Sounds like you could have retired a year ago because in the last 12 months the NASDAQ has not even risen.

Sure you dont want to thank Obama because when he was president and it went from 1500 to 5500...your money would have over tripled then versus the 40% increase since Trump became president.

 

[NorthernStar]

Debt will be the eventual downfall of the USA. Not looking good as neither party is willing to address the problem.

 

[Ricboff]

ACWI (global stock index)

3 yr weekly

not surprisingly low volume headed into Powell's Jackson Hole speech...everyone waiting with bated breath. As we can clearly see the global equity market has done largely nothing since Feb 2018, channeling between $75 and $70 (less the Dec meltdown, of course). And presents with an indecision candle heading into tomorrow ...downside? CANNOT break $69.70 ish. If she does, look out...could free fall in the next while to $66.20ish. Upside? Powell pleases the market (retraces his last speech, lol, states we are indeed in a rate cutting cycle) and voila, a very nice weekly candle and up to test $75, a powerful ceiling. From the chart the upside risk (unitl resistance is hit) is twice as small as the downside risk

if Powell delivers, one area that is likely to outperform is IWM on a relative basis , imo. If you were to plot a price regression channel for IWN dating back to Jan 2016, its current price is two standard deviations from 'normal' (lower side ). This is the SAME scenario as in Jan 2016; at that time, Yellen delivered , IWN outperformed other areas .

other areas likely to outperform; qqq, banks

limit buy orders only lol, short term tradinf rubbish

and again-- in 11 of 13 Powell speeches the market has dropped...............................should be a cracker of a day

'......see y'all tomorrow Have a nice evening...'

 

[Ricboff]

UUP (USD vs a basket of other currencies)

1 decade monthly

over the last decade the USD has never broken the level where its at. In addition that candle where it presents (if it were to present as such at the end of Aug ) is bearish; does Powell crush the USD? If he does, more fuel for Gold. The correlation is usually inverse. Gold has been so strong of late that its been rising despite USD strength (largely fear based as folks getting out of dodge ,....)


GLD

see post #45, made in June (3rd candle from the right) and I quote; 'keep an eye on Gold. GLD has been channeling for nearly 5 years. In this environment, she may have the fuel to breakout. GLD needs to break 130...boy oh boy, a break above and the gold nutters around the globe will return....with conviction '

1 decade monthly

........volume over the last 3 months is STILL rising. ZERO resistance until $150. On the downside $133-$130 should present an army of buyers $130 is a MUST hold , a break below $130, somehting has gone way way wrong- GTFO.

the fear premium could dissipate for Gold if Powell delivers presenting a pullback, perhaps to $1477 on Gold (approx 2.1% fall..on GLD $138.30ish)...if Powell really delights, this level could be taken out in the short term..... If Powell disappoints, well....the shinny metal may have a glorious day



got the coffee and ready for SHOWTIME

this should the Market's Theme song....its fuckin' genius

 

[Ricboff]

note; Gold could damn well rise even if Powell delights ,specifically, hints of QE..


.......the candles to tell the story

 

[Ricboff]

MASSIVE red candle on the es-mini's about 15 minutes ago or so. Futures went from comfortably green to comfortably red.........fear before Powell............................

 

[Ricboff]

MY BAD, that candle was due to China news

China is set to retaliate on the US

Trade war: China slaps tariffs on $75B of U.S. goods


this could get CRAZY UGLY if Powell does not deliver..........

 

[Ricboff]

China is clearly being nasty, timing this just before the market opens.

market is not breaking down so far, it hasnt broken yesterdays low. THis is telling .........(so far, thats a big level). ..l..................................Powell the floor is yours

 

[Ricboff]

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20190823a.htm


. 'Based on our assessment of the implications of these developments, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.'

 

[Ricboff]

Trump found his phone, lol......unleashing a series of impulsive tweets. Market volatility goign nutty....

 

[Ricboff]

SEA of red, BLOODBATH.....USD hammered, GLD, TLT flying (clear flight to safety), VIX up 22% LMFAO

can you imagine employees at The Whitehouse today? ......running for cover ...'its lunchtime, back in a hour!!' @)

 

[snoop]

Trump could be a 'black swan' in the making.