Best NFL DFS matchups for Week 2
cott Kacsmar, Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
9/13/17
The second week of an NFL season is always about trying to figure out what was real in Week 1. Is Chicago running back Tarik Cohen really a rookie sensation, or did Mike Glennon just fall in love with short passes against an Atlanta defense that conceded 14 catches to James White in the Super Bowl?
Rookie running backs were all the rage in Week 1, but if you are willing to pay a near-premium for Kareem Hunt this week, do keep in mind that he played only 58 percent of the snaps in New England. Snap counts and touches are always important to note.
Speaking of New England, the Patriots-Saints matchup is really the key to building your Week 2 lineups in DFS. A ton of points are expected in a game that features two Hall of Fame quarterbacks and two very shaky defenses. The Packers visiting Atlanta is another offensive showdown, but we also have to make sense of Pittsburgh's very talented offense after a slow start in Cleveland, and whether Sam Bradford is leading a strong Minnesota offense this year.
You can count on more touchdowns this week after the slow start the league got off to in Week 1. However, it would be for the best to fade any contests with the Thursday night game. Even in seasons where they didn't look terrible, the Bengals and Texans played very low-scoring games.
Here are the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 2:
(Note: References to defensive rankings are based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, explained here).
Quarterbacks
Midtier lock of the week: Jameis Winston vs. Chicago Bears
Winston makes his 2017 debut with a favorable home matchup with the Bears. Winston had eight games in 2016 with at least 220 passing yards and multiple touchdowns, and he is poised to do even bigger things in his third year with the additions of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard. There are better premium options this week for cash games, but in a tournament, I would not hesitate to stack Winston with No. 1 target Mike Evans. Don't let the 23-17 final with Atlanta fool you last week. The Bears still gave up more than 45 yards per drive to Matt Ryan's Falcons.
Take a walk on the wild side: Trevor Siemian vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sure, most people are going to pick Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, or Ryan this week. But for the daring, why not take their best skill players and pair them with a bargain like Siemian? He accounted for three total touchdowns against the Chargers and mostly looked to be in command of his offense. Denver still doesn't have a great running game, and the Dallas defense is vulnerable to allowing a lot of short completions. This should also be a game that Denver never gets a big lead in, keeping Siemian throwing well into the fourth quarter.
Fade: Dak Prescott at Denver Broncos
The Denver defense was not overwhelming against the Chargers on Monday night, but the unit did give up only a single touchdown until some turnovers led to short fields in the fourth quarter. I still trust this defense to play strong at home, and the Cowboys just came off a 19-point effort against a stingy Giants defense. The fantasy numbers were respectable for Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, but I would fade the offense on the road, including Dez Bryant and his tough matchups with Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr.
Players To Pick In Week 2
PLAYER POS TEAM PROJ +/- TOT
Jameis Winston QB TB 18.4 4.1 22.6
Trevor Siemian QB DEN 15.2 -1.2 13.9
Ty Montgomery RB GB 13.8 2.9 16.7
Marshawn Lynch RB OAK 11.6 2.7 14.3
Mike Evans WR TB 18.7 2.1 20.8
Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 15.2 1.5 16.8
Chris Hogan WR NE 9.7 1.0 10.6
Jimmy Graham TE SEA 11.0 1.2 12.2
Running backs
Premium play: Marshawn Lynch vs. New York Jets
While the Jets have a strong defensive line, LeSean McCoy still rushed for 110 yards last week. The Raiders have a very good offensive line, and I expect Lynch to impress in his home debut. He already was solid with 76 rushing yards in Week 1, and should find the end zone this week. Like with most game scripts against the Jets this year, the Raiders are going to play with the lead, which means more opportunities for Lynch.
Matchup play: Ty Montgomery at Atlanta Falcons
Running backs have been very productive -- both on the ground and as receivers -- against Atlanta since last season. When these teams last met in the regular season, Montgomery was inactive. In the NFC Championship Game, the Packers quickly fell behind 10-0 and really had to abandon the run. Montgomery had only three carries. I expect a much closer offensive shootout where Montgomery can get 15-plus touches, including several receptions. The Bears just piled up points on the Falcons last week with Jordan Howard and Cohen. This is a much better matchup for Montgomery than Seattle.
Fade: Dalvin Cook at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cook rushed for 127 yards in his rookie debut. A late 33-yard run to milk the clock really boosted his fantasy night, but he did look impressive, albeit the game was against New Orleans. Pittsburgh's strength is its run defense and the unit caught a big break when Stephon Tuitt avoided a season-ending biceps injury. He could play Sunday. This should be a game where Bradford's best friends are Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen rather than his back and tight end Kyle Rudolph. This is also a game where the Vikings are less likely to play from ahead as often, facing a tough Pittsburgh team with great offensive options on the road.
Players To Avoid In Week 2
PLAYER POS TEAM PROJ +/- TOT
Dak Prescott QB DAL 18.2 0.0 18.2
Dalvin Cook RB MIN 13.4 -1.4 12.0
A.J. Green WR CIN 16.5 0.8 17.4
Dez Bryant WR DAL 13.5 0.0 13.5
O.J. Howard TE TB 6.0 0.7 6.7
Wide receivers
Value of the week: Chris Hogan at New Orleans Saints
In a game with so many offensive stars, Hogan can be easily forgotten. However, I think he'll bounce back in a huge way from his eight-yard receiving performance in Week 1. Hogan could have an impact in the way that Thielen did out of the slot against New Orleans in Week 1. This is especially true if Danny Amendola is still feeling the effects of his concussion. Hogan would be my value receiver, especially in any tournament this week.
Pay up for: Larry Fitzgerald at Indianapolis Colts
Reports of Carson Palmer's demise might be somewhat exaggerated, but Week 1 was bad. Even worse is that the Cardinals lost David Johnson (wrist) for several months. The good news is that Fitzgerald can still play at a high level, and he's getting an Indianapolis defense that just made Jared Goff look elite. The 2017 Colts appear to be good medicine for whatever ails your team, and I would expect Fitzgerald and Palmer to have their way with this defense this week.
Fade: A.J. Green vs. Houston Texans
In five games against the Texans, Green has been kept out of the end zone and surpassed 80 yards only one time. The Bengals have scored fewer than 20 points in four of those games. Andy Dalton has always struggled with the Houston defense, and he is coming off one of the worst games of his career in Week 1 (four interceptions in a 20-0 shutout). Dalton will play better, but his limitations hurt Green. There are plenty of better premium options this week.
Tight ends
Flip the script: Jimmy Graham vs. San Francisco 49ers
Graham had a very rough Week 1 in Green Bay with a drop in the fourth quarter, a flag didn't go his way in the end zone, and he showed little interest in blocking. I think the 49ers are coming to Seattle at a perfect time for the passing offense to get on track. Graham had 100 yards and a touchdown at home against the 49ers last year, and that defense is still lacking talent in the secondary. Russell Wilson should have a much better connection with his star tight end this week.
Fade: O.J. Howard vs. Chicago Bears
It is a tempting pick when you see that the Bears are 32nd in DVOA against tight ends, but so much of that was the 88-yard touchdown from Austin Hooper. That was not a very repeatable play, but it is the kind of big play that is possible against this secondary. Winston had some incredible big plays against the Bears last year, but I think Howard will have a quiet debut, and we still don't know how much time he'll split with Cameron Brate at tight end. That's why Evans is the safe bet to produce in this offense.
Elite Players
Each week we look at some "elite" players with some of the highest salaries at each position. You should always build your roster with at least one of these players, but sometimes there are difficult matchups where the cost efficiency is simply not in your best interest. Seek the cheaper alternatives listed above.
Top quarterback: Tom Brady at New Orleans Saints
Projections For Elite QBs In Week 2
PLAYER TEAM PROJ +/- TOT
Drew Brees NO 20.2 4.5 24.7
Tom Brady NE 20.2 4.1 24.3
Aaron Rodgers GB 22.5 -1.6 20.9
Matt Ryan ATL 20.6 -1.7 18.9
Derek Carr OAK 18.5 0.0 18.5
Maybe Tom Brady just wasn't "angry" enough in Week 1. Either way, he's getting a New Orleans defense that just made Bradford look like the best quarterback in the NFL. There are still some concerns about Brady's age and the move toward a more vertical offense, but I would be shocked if he didn't light up the Saints this week. Brees is, of course, an excellent choice as well, and he has great numbers (10 touchdowns, one pick) in his career against Bill Belichick's defense. I just prefer Brady since he has more weapons around him right now.
I like Aaron Rodgers over Matt Ryan since you can get some rushing production from Rodgers in that matchup. Both should be really good though. I would fade Derek Carr if only because the Raiders should be done early with the Jets, hence little need to throw for 350-plus yards.
Top running back: Melvin Gordon vs. Miami Dolphins
Projections For Elite RBs In Week 2
PLAYER TEAM PROJ +/- TOT
Melvin Gordon LAC 17.1 1.6 18.7
Le'Veon Bell PIT 19.2 -2.2 17.0
Devonta Freeman ATL 15.7 0.0 15.7
LeSean McCoy BUF 17.6 -3.4 14.2
Ezekiel Elliott DAL 17.3 -3.4 13.9
Melvin Gordon did not have a lot of running room last week, but he still had 23 touches and scored a touchdown. Miami's a good matchup for him in a game that also could be sneaky offensive. Last week, Le'Veon Bell clearly was rusty, which was especially visible in the passing game. He'll be better this week, but the Vikings are still a tough matchup and the Steelers struggled to move Cleveland's front seven last week. I wouldn't go all in on Bell in any format this week.
I wouldn't entirely fade Elliott in Denver, since run defense is still the weakness in that unit, but don't expect a lot. Devonta Freeman should have solid value against the Packers, and McCoy is coming off a minor injury and has a tough matchup in Carolina. I would fade McCoy's high salary this week.
Top wide receiver: Julio Jones vs. Green Bay Packers
Projections For Elite WRs In Week 2
PLAYER TEAM PROJ +/- TOT
Antonio Brown PIT 21.3 1.1 22.4
Julio Jones ATL 18.3 -0.2 18.1
Amari Cooper OAK 17.3 0.0 17.3
Brandin Cooks NE 15.6 1.6 17.1
Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 17.1 -0.2 17.0
Over the past few years, almost every time Jones has a game under 70 receiving yards, he responds with 90-plus yards the following week. Green Bay really doesn't have a top corner to match up with him, and I cannot see Jones being so quiet (by his standards) two weeks in a row. Antonio Brown caught all 11 of his targets in Week 1, but the Vikings should have a better matchup with Xavier Rhodes at cornerback. I think the Steelers also try to get Bell and Martavis Bryant more involved this week, so not as much for Brown.
Odell Beckham Jr. should be faded until he proves he is healthy enough to contribute at an elite level. Amari Cooper should be a solid play in cash games, but again, the Raiders won't need to throw a ton to beat the Jets. I really like Brandin Cooks going back to New Orleans with a chip on his shoulder and an "angry" quarterback throwing him deep shots against a terrible secondary. If there's a better stack than Brady-Gronkowski, it is Brady-Cooks this week. You might even try to play all three of them together if this game lives up to expectations.
Top tight end: Rob Gronkowski at New Orleans Saints
Projections For Elite TEs In Week 2
PLAYER TEAM PROJ +/- TOT
Rob Gronkowski NE 13.6 1.4 15.0
Travis Kelce KC 13.7 -0.7 13.0
Greg Olsen CAR 13.0 -0.7 12.3
Jordan Reed WAS 12.6 -0.6 12.0
Zach Ertz PHI 11.0 0.0 11.0
After one week, the Saints rank 31st against tight ends. After such a quiet Week 1, Gronkowski is a favorite to post big numbers this week in that back-and-forth game. It's an expensive stack with Brady and Gronkowski, but it can really pay off when they hit. I think this will be a big week for the best tight end in the game. Zach Ertz will catch a break with Eric Berry out for the Chiefs, but that defense is still tough without him. I wouldn't count on Ertz to deliver again this week. Greg Olsen is another Week 1 dud expected to rebound in a big way this week. My only concern with that matchup is that Buffalo coach Sean McDermott should know from his time in Carolina just how important Olsen is to this passing game. Still, he's worth a play.
cott Kacsmar, Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
9/13/17
The second week of an NFL season is always about trying to figure out what was real in Week 1. Is Chicago running back Tarik Cohen really a rookie sensation, or did Mike Glennon just fall in love with short passes against an Atlanta defense that conceded 14 catches to James White in the Super Bowl?
Rookie running backs were all the rage in Week 1, but if you are willing to pay a near-premium for Kareem Hunt this week, do keep in mind that he played only 58 percent of the snaps in New England. Snap counts and touches are always important to note.
Speaking of New England, the Patriots-Saints matchup is really the key to building your Week 2 lineups in DFS. A ton of points are expected in a game that features two Hall of Fame quarterbacks and two very shaky defenses. The Packers visiting Atlanta is another offensive showdown, but we also have to make sense of Pittsburgh's very talented offense after a slow start in Cleveland, and whether Sam Bradford is leading a strong Minnesota offense this year.
You can count on more touchdowns this week after the slow start the league got off to in Week 1. However, it would be for the best to fade any contests with the Thursday night game. Even in seasons where they didn't look terrible, the Bengals and Texans played very low-scoring games.
Here are the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 2:
(Note: References to defensive rankings are based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, explained here).
Quarterbacks
Midtier lock of the week: Jameis Winston vs. Chicago Bears
Winston makes his 2017 debut with a favorable home matchup with the Bears. Winston had eight games in 2016 with at least 220 passing yards and multiple touchdowns, and he is poised to do even bigger things in his third year with the additions of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard. There are better premium options this week for cash games, but in a tournament, I would not hesitate to stack Winston with No. 1 target Mike Evans. Don't let the 23-17 final with Atlanta fool you last week. The Bears still gave up more than 45 yards per drive to Matt Ryan's Falcons.
Take a walk on the wild side: Trevor Siemian vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sure, most people are going to pick Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, or Ryan this week. But for the daring, why not take their best skill players and pair them with a bargain like Siemian? He accounted for three total touchdowns against the Chargers and mostly looked to be in command of his offense. Denver still doesn't have a great running game, and the Dallas defense is vulnerable to allowing a lot of short completions. This should also be a game that Denver never gets a big lead in, keeping Siemian throwing well into the fourth quarter.
Fade: Dak Prescott at Denver Broncos
The Denver defense was not overwhelming against the Chargers on Monday night, but the unit did give up only a single touchdown until some turnovers led to short fields in the fourth quarter. I still trust this defense to play strong at home, and the Cowboys just came off a 19-point effort against a stingy Giants defense. The fantasy numbers were respectable for Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, but I would fade the offense on the road, including Dez Bryant and his tough matchups with Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr.
Players To Pick In Week 2
PLAYER POS TEAM PROJ +/- TOT
Jameis Winston QB TB 18.4 4.1 22.6
Trevor Siemian QB DEN 15.2 -1.2 13.9
Ty Montgomery RB GB 13.8 2.9 16.7
Marshawn Lynch RB OAK 11.6 2.7 14.3
Mike Evans WR TB 18.7 2.1 20.8
Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 15.2 1.5 16.8
Chris Hogan WR NE 9.7 1.0 10.6
Jimmy Graham TE SEA 11.0 1.2 12.2
Running backs
Premium play: Marshawn Lynch vs. New York Jets
While the Jets have a strong defensive line, LeSean McCoy still rushed for 110 yards last week. The Raiders have a very good offensive line, and I expect Lynch to impress in his home debut. He already was solid with 76 rushing yards in Week 1, and should find the end zone this week. Like with most game scripts against the Jets this year, the Raiders are going to play with the lead, which means more opportunities for Lynch.
Matchup play: Ty Montgomery at Atlanta Falcons
Running backs have been very productive -- both on the ground and as receivers -- against Atlanta since last season. When these teams last met in the regular season, Montgomery was inactive. In the NFC Championship Game, the Packers quickly fell behind 10-0 and really had to abandon the run. Montgomery had only three carries. I expect a much closer offensive shootout where Montgomery can get 15-plus touches, including several receptions. The Bears just piled up points on the Falcons last week with Jordan Howard and Cohen. This is a much better matchup for Montgomery than Seattle.
Fade: Dalvin Cook at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cook rushed for 127 yards in his rookie debut. A late 33-yard run to milk the clock really boosted his fantasy night, but he did look impressive, albeit the game was against New Orleans. Pittsburgh's strength is its run defense and the unit caught a big break when Stephon Tuitt avoided a season-ending biceps injury. He could play Sunday. This should be a game where Bradford's best friends are Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen rather than his back and tight end Kyle Rudolph. This is also a game where the Vikings are less likely to play from ahead as often, facing a tough Pittsburgh team with great offensive options on the road.
Players To Avoid In Week 2
PLAYER POS TEAM PROJ +/- TOT
Dak Prescott QB DAL 18.2 0.0 18.2
Dalvin Cook RB MIN 13.4 -1.4 12.0
A.J. Green WR CIN 16.5 0.8 17.4
Dez Bryant WR DAL 13.5 0.0 13.5
O.J. Howard TE TB 6.0 0.7 6.7
Wide receivers
Value of the week: Chris Hogan at New Orleans Saints
In a game with so many offensive stars, Hogan can be easily forgotten. However, I think he'll bounce back in a huge way from his eight-yard receiving performance in Week 1. Hogan could have an impact in the way that Thielen did out of the slot against New Orleans in Week 1. This is especially true if Danny Amendola is still feeling the effects of his concussion. Hogan would be my value receiver, especially in any tournament this week.
Pay up for: Larry Fitzgerald at Indianapolis Colts
Reports of Carson Palmer's demise might be somewhat exaggerated, but Week 1 was bad. Even worse is that the Cardinals lost David Johnson (wrist) for several months. The good news is that Fitzgerald can still play at a high level, and he's getting an Indianapolis defense that just made Jared Goff look elite. The 2017 Colts appear to be good medicine for whatever ails your team, and I would expect Fitzgerald and Palmer to have their way with this defense this week.
Fade: A.J. Green vs. Houston Texans
In five games against the Texans, Green has been kept out of the end zone and surpassed 80 yards only one time. The Bengals have scored fewer than 20 points in four of those games. Andy Dalton has always struggled with the Houston defense, and he is coming off one of the worst games of his career in Week 1 (four interceptions in a 20-0 shutout). Dalton will play better, but his limitations hurt Green. There are plenty of better premium options this week.
Tight ends
Flip the script: Jimmy Graham vs. San Francisco 49ers
Graham had a very rough Week 1 in Green Bay with a drop in the fourth quarter, a flag didn't go his way in the end zone, and he showed little interest in blocking. I think the 49ers are coming to Seattle at a perfect time for the passing offense to get on track. Graham had 100 yards and a touchdown at home against the 49ers last year, and that defense is still lacking talent in the secondary. Russell Wilson should have a much better connection with his star tight end this week.
Fade: O.J. Howard vs. Chicago Bears
It is a tempting pick when you see that the Bears are 32nd in DVOA against tight ends, but so much of that was the 88-yard touchdown from Austin Hooper. That was not a very repeatable play, but it is the kind of big play that is possible against this secondary. Winston had some incredible big plays against the Bears last year, but I think Howard will have a quiet debut, and we still don't know how much time he'll split with Cameron Brate at tight end. That's why Evans is the safe bet to produce in this offense.
Elite Players
Each week we look at some "elite" players with some of the highest salaries at each position. You should always build your roster with at least one of these players, but sometimes there are difficult matchups where the cost efficiency is simply not in your best interest. Seek the cheaper alternatives listed above.
Top quarterback: Tom Brady at New Orleans Saints
Projections For Elite QBs In Week 2
PLAYER TEAM PROJ +/- TOT
Drew Brees NO 20.2 4.5 24.7
Tom Brady NE 20.2 4.1 24.3
Aaron Rodgers GB 22.5 -1.6 20.9
Matt Ryan ATL 20.6 -1.7 18.9
Derek Carr OAK 18.5 0.0 18.5
Maybe Tom Brady just wasn't "angry" enough in Week 1. Either way, he's getting a New Orleans defense that just made Bradford look like the best quarterback in the NFL. There are still some concerns about Brady's age and the move toward a more vertical offense, but I would be shocked if he didn't light up the Saints this week. Brees is, of course, an excellent choice as well, and he has great numbers (10 touchdowns, one pick) in his career against Bill Belichick's defense. I just prefer Brady since he has more weapons around him right now.
I like Aaron Rodgers over Matt Ryan since you can get some rushing production from Rodgers in that matchup. Both should be really good though. I would fade Derek Carr if only because the Raiders should be done early with the Jets, hence little need to throw for 350-plus yards.
Top running back: Melvin Gordon vs. Miami Dolphins
Projections For Elite RBs In Week 2
PLAYER TEAM PROJ +/- TOT
Melvin Gordon LAC 17.1 1.6 18.7
Le'Veon Bell PIT 19.2 -2.2 17.0
Devonta Freeman ATL 15.7 0.0 15.7
LeSean McCoy BUF 17.6 -3.4 14.2
Ezekiel Elliott DAL 17.3 -3.4 13.9
Melvin Gordon did not have a lot of running room last week, but he still had 23 touches and scored a touchdown. Miami's a good matchup for him in a game that also could be sneaky offensive. Last week, Le'Veon Bell clearly was rusty, which was especially visible in the passing game. He'll be better this week, but the Vikings are still a tough matchup and the Steelers struggled to move Cleveland's front seven last week. I wouldn't go all in on Bell in any format this week.
I wouldn't entirely fade Elliott in Denver, since run defense is still the weakness in that unit, but don't expect a lot. Devonta Freeman should have solid value against the Packers, and McCoy is coming off a minor injury and has a tough matchup in Carolina. I would fade McCoy's high salary this week.
Top wide receiver: Julio Jones vs. Green Bay Packers
Projections For Elite WRs In Week 2
PLAYER TEAM PROJ +/- TOT
Antonio Brown PIT 21.3 1.1 22.4
Julio Jones ATL 18.3 -0.2 18.1
Amari Cooper OAK 17.3 0.0 17.3
Brandin Cooks NE 15.6 1.6 17.1
Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 17.1 -0.2 17.0
Over the past few years, almost every time Jones has a game under 70 receiving yards, he responds with 90-plus yards the following week. Green Bay really doesn't have a top corner to match up with him, and I cannot see Jones being so quiet (by his standards) two weeks in a row. Antonio Brown caught all 11 of his targets in Week 1, but the Vikings should have a better matchup with Xavier Rhodes at cornerback. I think the Steelers also try to get Bell and Martavis Bryant more involved this week, so not as much for Brown.
Odell Beckham Jr. should be faded until he proves he is healthy enough to contribute at an elite level. Amari Cooper should be a solid play in cash games, but again, the Raiders won't need to throw a ton to beat the Jets. I really like Brandin Cooks going back to New Orleans with a chip on his shoulder and an "angry" quarterback throwing him deep shots against a terrible secondary. If there's a better stack than Brady-Gronkowski, it is Brady-Cooks this week. You might even try to play all three of them together if this game lives up to expectations.
Top tight end: Rob Gronkowski at New Orleans Saints
Projections For Elite TEs In Week 2
PLAYER TEAM PROJ +/- TOT
Rob Gronkowski NE 13.6 1.4 15.0
Travis Kelce KC 13.7 -0.7 13.0
Greg Olsen CAR 13.0 -0.7 12.3
Jordan Reed WAS 12.6 -0.6 12.0
Zach Ertz PHI 11.0 0.0 11.0
After one week, the Saints rank 31st against tight ends. After such a quiet Week 1, Gronkowski is a favorite to post big numbers this week in that back-and-forth game. It's an expensive stack with Brady and Gronkowski, but it can really pay off when they hit. I think this will be a big week for the best tight end in the game. Zach Ertz will catch a break with Eric Berry out for the Chiefs, but that defense is still tough without him. I wouldn't count on Ertz to deliver again this week. Greg Olsen is another Week 1 dud expected to rebound in a big way this week. My only concern with that matchup is that Buffalo coach Sean McDermott should know from his time in Carolina just how important Olsen is to this passing game. Still, he's worth a play.