Fantasy Football News, Info, Articles 2017/18 (Lots of ESPN Insider)

[HacheMan]

Seattle and Minnesota try to deal with RB injuries
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
10/6/17

There’s a difference between recommending a new starting running back because you really like him and think he’ll be really productive and talking about a player just because he suddenly has the opportunity. That’s kind of how I feel about the running back situations for both the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks after they each lost exciting rookie starters, Dalvin Cook and Chris Carson, respectively, to season-ending leg injuries. Sure, Latavius Murray and Eddie Lacy have each had seasons in the past when fantasy owners loved them and they’ll be relevant in Week 5. Still, it seems unlikely we’ll love them in 2017.
Murray was the more popular pickup compared to longtime backup Jerick McKinnon -- and he should be, as the Vikings went to him on Sunday after the Cook injury and figure to give him the larger workload. The problem, of course, is that Murray isn’t that good to start with and he’s still dealing with ankle soreness after offseason surgery. So, when many of us advise fantasy owners to add Murray to their teams -- and people are so desperate that he’s up to 80 percent rostered -- it shouldn’t be construed as blind faith for another 1,000-yard rushing season or a repeat of last year's 12 touchdowns.

The Vikings are likely to use Murray on early downs and McKinnon on passing downs, and it would be surprising if Stevan Ridley, signed Thursday after last playing a key role for a team in 2014, mattered. It might just be that, like several other NFL squads -- the Giants and Cardinals jump to mind -- there simply might not be any Vikings running back that will truly matter statistically. We’ll all be watching Monday night, and perhaps Murray will be awesome. Then again, despite my RB2 ranking for him, I do have reservations.

My best guess for the Seahawks is that both Lacy and Thomas Rawls get some opportunities and whichever one ends up being more productive is the one who will keep getting touches. Lacy was the more popular fantasy addition this week -- and that makes sense, for he likely gets the first shot. After all, he’s the one who ran 11 times for 52 yards against the Colts in Week 4 and, at times, looked somewhat more competent than the others. He’s not fast. He's far from svelte. Heck, he's not much of a pass-catcher, either. Oh, and the Seattle offensive line has big problems opening up reasonable holes to run through. Other than that, it’s a Super Bowl-contending team. Ha!

Rawls was a healthy scratch in Week 4, but wasn’t healthy prior to that. He also doesn’t catch passes. C.J. Prosise does, but he’s got a sprained ankle, didn’t play the past two games and didn’t practice Wednesday. Prosise, when healthy and available, could be like Cleveland’s Duke Johnson Jr. -- a fun pass-catcher who rises up to become the most valuable fantasy asset among his team’s running backs. But Prosise seldom seems to be able to stay healthy and available. There’s also J.D. McKissic to consider, as he turned his five touches from scrimmage into 65 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday night. Don’t discount his potential relevance. We watch because we care, and any of Lacy, Rawls, Prosise and McKissic could end up being valuable. For now, I’d roster them in that order. Still, try to avoid relying on any of these guys.

Top-20 running back watch: This is becoming a weekly section in this “What to Watch For” space because fantasy owners are desperate for running back help, especially with the bye weeks beginning and Devonta Freeman, C.J. Anderson and others unavailable. This week, we continue to watch in relative amazement as Cincinnati Bengals rookie Joe Mixon fails to emerge as the team’s lead back, despite much evidence he should. Carolina Panthers pass-catching back Christian McCaffrey continues to frustrate as well. You know what? Mixon and McCaffrey were both comfortably assigned to our collective top 20 for Week 5, in part because there’s nobody else to nominate, but also for the upside we keep discussing but have yet to truly see. Continue to invest in them. Last week, we focused on Cleveland’s Isaiah Crowell and the Jets’ Bilal Powell in the hopes of finding some clarity, but didn’t really get any answers. Perhaps this week a few rookies will break out to take their place.

Revenge is a dish best served in Indy: Or something like that. The point is that the Indianapolis Colts face the San Francisco 49ers this week, and veteran running back Frank Gore faces the team for which he played an excellent 10 seasons. Gore isn’t off to such a great statistical start in 2017, as he ranks just 30th in PPR scoring after having finished last year just outside the top 10. Fantasy owners aren’t dropping him, but they’re probably not excited about activating him, either. Well, the ESPN rankers have him easily in the top 20 at running back. No, he hasn’t gotten any younger, but it doesn’t look like he has hit some imaginary wall either, despite the tepid performance. A tough schedule and the loss of quarterback Andrew Luck haven’t helped. One could easily argue that Gore is someone to trade for in fantasy, though I wouldn’t give up a lot for him. The 49ers have permitted the fourth-most fantasy points (PPR) to running backs, and three of Gore’s five catches on the season came Sunday at Seattle. Perhaps he’ll be more active in that department moving forward.

More rookie talk: Then there’s the other side of the Monday night game in which the Chicago Bears turn to No. 2 overall draft pick Mitchell Trubisky to save them. Well, perhaps not save them, but at least to gain some valuable experience and perform better than Mike Glennon did. That, at least, seems attainable. While my general feeling about trusting rookie quarterbacks is always something along the lines of it not being a good idea, Houston’s Deshaun Watson looks fantastic and Cleveland’s DeShone Kizer -- well, things take time. I wouldn’t even roster Trubisky in a re-draft, 10-team standard league. In a dynasty format I would because he really could be valuable in a year. Perhaps he follows the Jared Goff path and looks completely out of place his first season but ends up emerging in Year 2 thanks to some offensive line help, more weapons and better playcalling. Things like this don’t surprise me much anymore. Fantasy owners should watch the initial effect on running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen and whether any wide receivers become potential flex options. For now, however, don’t downgrade Howard and Cohen or roster the likes of Kendall Wright in shallow formats. Don’t be surprised if this works out, though. You never know.

 

[HacheMan]

Best, worst matchups at all fantasy football positions for Week 5
Tristan Cockcroft
ESPN INSIDER
10/6/17

Matchups are often a driving force behind fantasy football owners' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, you know the first question that comes to mind: Which one has the best matchup?

Ah, but what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?



That's where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring, though I have analyzed this data for both PPR and non-PPR and have found that the rankings would scarcely change (if at all). Therefore, these help in either scoring format.

The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense has held opponents at that position. For Week 5, we'll use 2017 data (four weeks are already in the books), but beginning with Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks. Keep in mind that as "Adj. FPA" statistics represent only a four-week, smaller-than-usual sample, my personal ranking ("Rk") won't fall quite in line as it will in future weeks.

Finally, a caveat: Remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.

Quarterbacks

Favorable matchup: Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NE)

His is playing in the Thursday Night Football game, so get him into your lineups right now! Winston gets the advantage of facing the New England Patriots' defense at a time during which it is performing as poorly -- if not more poorly -- as it has at any time in Bill Belichick's reign as head coach. Through four weeks, the Patriots have afforded 10.7 more fantasy points to quarterbacks than any other team and a league-high 0.645 fantasy points per pass attempt, and they've pressured the passer on only 20 percent of pass plays, the fourth-worst rate in the league. Last week, they made Cam Newton look about as good as he has at any point in his career, surrendering 33.04 fantasy points to him after he had totaled 33.24 in his previous three games. Despite it being a short week, Winston should benefit greatly from this matchup.

Unfavorable matchup: Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (KC)

He's by far the most added quarterback in ESPN leagues (up 42 percent, to 71.3), he's coming off a position-leading 33.72 fantasy points in Week 4, and he's now seventh at his position in fantasy points for the season (77.24), despite having made only three starts to four by all six of the players with more. Though there's much buzz surrounding Watson in fantasy, let's pump the brakes a little bit, because he had outrageously favorable matchups in Weeks 3-4 and hasn't yet faced a defense nearly as stingy as that of the Kansas City Chiefs. Granted, the Chiefs haven't pressured the quarterback that much, their 14 pressures tied for fourth fewest and their two sacks tied for third fewest, and Watson is about as apt a quarterback as there is at scrambling and making plays from outside the pocket. Remember, it's his statistical floor that makes him so appealing for our purposes, and his mobility fuels that. Still, Watson's passing numbers -- the part of his game that addresses his weekly upside -- have been poorer inside the pocket, and on pass attempts 15-plus yards downfield he's tied for the league's most interceptions (four). I ranked him 10th this week, and that's a start in ESPN standard leagues, but let's see him prove it against an unfavorable matchup before valuing him more.

Running backs

Favorable matchup: Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns (NYJ)

It's effectively a make-or-break matchup for him, because Crowell's numbers are noticeably down this season and his owners are growing impatient. His 6.35 PPR fantasy point average is less than half of his 2016 number (12.82) and his 2.9 yards-per-carry rate is significantly beneath his 4.2 career number. Still, Crowell now draws his best matchup all year, against a New York Jets defense that has been far more ineffective against opposing running backs than their back-to-back wins allowing 26 combined points with a plus-17 point differential would have you believe. The Jets have allowed a league-high six runs of 20-plus yards as well as the sixth-highest yards-per-carry average (4.7), and their 28.7 PPR fantasy points allowed to running backs is third most. Neither of these teams' defenses is especially good and the betting line suggests a close game, so Crowell should get plenty of opportunities in this one to rebound.

Unfavorable matchup: Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals (BUF)

From favorable to unfavorable in a week Mixon has gone, and let's not overlook the fact that he mustered a mere 1.7 yards per carry facing the Browns last week, with his four catches effectively saving his day in PPR scoring. Poor offensive line play has played a large part in Mixon's slow start -- his Bengals rank fourth worst in yards before contact per rush -- but tough matchups, such as this one, aren't helping. The Buffalo Bills, despite a poor showing against the Atlanta Falcons running backs in Week 4, have afforded the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position (20.9) and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per target to running backs (1.317). Mixon might now have a hold on the Bengals' starting job, but there will be better weeks to play him than this.

RB Matchups Map
"DEF to avoid" and "DEF to exploit" columns rank team defenses in terms of strength of matchup; "Opp.": Week 5 opponent; "Rk": Tristan's matchup ranking, where 1 is the toughest defense and 32 is the easiest defense to face; "Adj. FPA": The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.

Wide receivers

Favorable matchup: DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins (TEN)

You could really go in either direction here between Parker and Jarvis Landry, as the Tennessee Titans have been one of the worst -- if not the worst -- defenses against opposing wide receivers to date. No team has afforded a greater number of wide receivers 15-plus PPR fantasy points in a game than the Titans this season (five), and what separates Parker in this matchup is his tendency to play on the perimeter, where the team has afforded the fourth-most points. Amari Cooper (17.2), Marqise Lee (14.6), Doug Baldwin (26.5) and DeAndre Hopkins (26.7) already have had big games while playing primarily on the outside against this defense this season.

Unfavorable matchup: Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers (@DET)

He had a productive Week 4 against the Patriots -- 10.4 non-PPR and 14.4 PPR fantasy points -- and still shapes up as Cam Newton's go-to guy in the offense, but this is one of the toughest matchups on Benjamin's entire 2017 schedule. One of the reasons the Detroit Lions rate so challenging a matchup is cornerback Darius Slay, who has caused headaches for opposing No. 1 wideouts: Larry Fitzgerald, Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones and Stefon Diggs have averaged 7.5 non-PPR and 13.0 PPR fantasy points against the Lions, those coming on a whopping 9.3 targets per game. Fantasy owners might do well to keep Benjamin on the sidelines this week, knowing that he then has about as favorable a matchup as he could ask facing him in Week 6 (PHI).

Tight ends

Favorable matchup: Jared Cook, Oakland Raiders (BAL)

EJ Manuel's installation as Raiders quarterback saps a lot of appeal from this offense, but Cook is one player who still matches up fairly nicely. His 25 targets are ninth most at the position, he's one of only four tight ends to score at least 6.5 PPR fantasy points in each of his four games, and after Manuel's arrival in the Week 4 game, Cook was targeted a team-high (tied with Seth Roberts) four times on Manuel's 17 throws. That bodes well for Cook's involvement against the Baltimore Ravens, who by the way were the defense that surrendered 28.2 PPR fantasy points to Marcedes Lewis in Week 3 and 11.7 to David Njoku and 8.1 to Seth DeValve in Week 2.

Unfavorable matchup: Evan Engram, New York Giants (LAC)

He's on track for one of the better rookie seasons in history at his position, which shouldn't come as a complete surprise considering that, coming out of the draft, he was regarded skills-wise more of a fit to a wide receiver's than tight end's role. With the Giants playing far more often from behind than expected, Engram should continue to be heavily targeted, perhaps not far off his third-best-at-the-position 7.5 targets per game. Still, this is a matchup to avoid, considering how much trouble the Los Angeles Chargers have been giving opposing tight ends. Travis Kelce managed a miserable 1.1 PPR fantasy points against them in Week 3, and Zach Ertz required eight targets -- that's the 15th most by any tight end in a game all year -- to get 13.1 against them.

 

[HacheMan]

Week 5 takeaways on Doug Martin, Aaron Jones and more
Matt Bowen
ESPN INSIDER
10/9/17

After throwing five interceptions on Sunday and failing to play consistent football in the vertical passing game, can fantasy managers trust Ben Roethlisberger as a QB1 moving forward? Let's break down the lack of production with the Pittsburgh quarterback, discuss the upside of rookie running back Aaron Jones in Green Bay and also look at the monster numbers from Deshaun Watson.

Here are my Week 5 fantasy takeaways:


Will Packers rookie Aaron Jones cut into Ty Montgomery's touches?

Jones put on a show in Dallas. The rookie rushed for 125 yards and touchdown on 19 carries (6.6 yards per carry). And he's pretty smooth. I'm talking about the lateral jump cuts, the vision and the sudden burst to get vertical in the hole. Yeah, Jones can play. This is a one-cut runner who also set up Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' play-action passing game in the fourth quarter.

Given that type of production, we have to anticipate Jones eating into the touches for Montgomery when the veteran does return from a rib injury. Jones put that production on tape and his skill set would allow the Packers to reduce Montgomery's workload as the No.1 back. Plus, the rookie could get another start in Week 6 versus the Vikings if Montgomery is still out with that injury. Jones should be rostered in all leagues and he has some real upside in this offense.

Cam Newton is rolling

After throwing for 355 yards (26-of-35 passing) and three touchdowns on Sunday versus the Lions, Newton has now racked up the second-most fantasy points in the NFL during the past two weeks (59.24). He's attacking opposing secondaries and benefiting from a Carolina passing game that is challenging with vertical throws down the field.

I hit on Newton's production coming off the Week 4 win over the Patriots. And even though that New England secondary left some doors open for Newton with communication busts, the game plan was aggressive. That's key from my perspective. Take some shots, mix in some QB designed runs and get creative.

We saw the similar script on Sunday in Detroit. Newton was 6-of-7 with a touchdown versus the Lions on throws of 15 or more yards down the field for an average of 29.7 per attempt. And while Newton didn't have the rushing numbers (seven carries, zero yards), that shovel pass to Christian McCaffrey was set up by the threat of the Panthers quarterback carrying the ball. Newton widened the edge defender on the option look and opened up a lane for McCaffrey to find the end zone off the inside shovel. Nasty to defend.

Newton's slow start to the season caused some real hesitation for fantasy managers. But after two straight weeks of high-level production in a multiple, aggressive offense, Newton should be viewed as a solid QB1. The shoulder looks good and he's got a solid matchup Thursday night versus the Eagles' secondary.

Ben Roethlisberger can't be trusted as a QB1

The interceptions were a problem for Roethlisberger versus the Jags on Sunday. He tossed five of them. And two were brought back to the house. But we also have to look at Roethlisberger's lack of consistency this season when throwing the deep ball, because it's becoming a major issue that is derailing Roethlisberger's fantasy production.

In 2016, Roethlisberger led the NFL with 16 touchdown passes on throws of 15 or more yards down the field, according to ESPN Stats & Information. And he completed 47 percent of those passes with only four interceptions. This season? A completely different story. Roethlisberger has yet to throw a TD pass on such throws, he has recorded five picks (with four on Sunday) and he is completing only 34 percent of his attempts.

Yes, the Jags' secondary is legit. And Jacksonville has a ton of speed at the second level. That has to be discussed here. But this isn't just a one-game trend for Roethlisberger. There is an obvious rhythm issue with this offense. Roethlisberger has completed just one touchdown pass to Antonio Brown through five weeks and we are still waiting for Martavis Bryant to have that breakout game.

With a road matchup versus the Chiefs in Week 6, fantasy managers should put Roethlisberger on the bench. Along with the negative production tendencies Roethlisberger has shown in road starts, the veteran can't be trusted to post a QB1 line based on the numbers and what I'm seeing on tape.

Doug Martin is the RB1 in Tampa

I wanted to go back to the Thursday night game because it was the first time we got to check out Martin this season. Coming off of a suspension, Martin rushed for 74 yards on 13 carries (5.7 yards per carry) versus the Patriots, he found the end zone and also posted 8 yards on one reception (three targets).

But more important than the numbers, we saw the speed, the sudden burst with Martin. The veteran was fast to hit the hole. Get downhill and go. Martin also showed that burst on edge runs. Bounce the ball. And he finished runs with some power too. Plus, with Jacquizz Rodgers seeing only three carries in that game, it's pretty clear that Martin is the RB1 in Tampa. He will provide fresh legs and more energy for the offense.

Deshaun Watson stays in the QB1 mix

That's 10 total touchdowns for the rookie quarterback in his past two starts and a league-leading 69.26 fantasy points over that span. Crazy numbers in an offense that is catering to his ability at the position.

On Friday, I wrote about the how the Texans have adapted the game plan to maximize the talent of Watson. Play-action, movement passes and QB runs put him in a position to produce and attack open windows.

We saw that in Week 4 versus the Titans. Watson diced up that defense, was ultra-efficient in the quick passing game and took advantage of some poor eye discipline from the Tennessee secondary. But after doing it again versus the Kansas City defense? Yeah, that's good stuff. And even with a late score in garbage time Sunday night, Watson is showing consistent trends from a fantasy perspective. He can extend plays, find positive matchups and use his legs to give managers a boost in production.

With a Week 6 matchup versus the Browns, Watson should be starting in all leagues. He has legit upside as a QB1 against a Cleveland defense that has had issues playing consistent football in Gregg Williams' pressure system.

Rookie TE George Kittle is a solid streaming option

Given the unpredictability at tight end this season and injuries to some of the league's top players at the position, fantasy managers should look at Kittle as a solid streaming option. The rookie out of Iowa produced in critical game situations versus the Colts and he caught seven passes for 83 yards and a score.

Quarterback Brian Hoyer targeted the rook on a crucial call late in the game off play-action and found Kittle again on a scripted red zone pick route to tie it up late in the fourth quarter. With Kittle aligned as a slot receiver, the tight end came underneath the pick to make the grab for six points. Big play in a pressure moment.

Kittle is a really good fit for Kyle Shanahan's offense as that H-back or "move" tight end. He's got low 4.5 speed and the route-running ability to get open in Shanahan's system. And with a Week 6 matchup versus a Redskins defense giving up an average of 18.4 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (30th in the NFL), Kittle should be on the radar for managers who need to stream a tight end.

Marlon Mack needs to be rostered in all leagues

After Mack's production Sunday, the rookie is a player who must be rostered in all leagues. Mack posted 91 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries (10.1 yards per carry). He has some juice on edge runs and he gives the Colts a changeup in the backfield.

The way I see it, Mack has the ability to rip off big plays and he could thrive with more volume. That's why he should be added this week. And with Frank Gore's low-level production Sunday, Mack should see more touches. At worst, he's a guy you pick up and stash in case of an injury to Gore. The playmaking skill set is there.

Will Fuller V should be in the lineup versus the Browns in Week 6

Fuller is another player who has benefited from the play of Watson in Houston. Since returning from injury, Fuller has caught six of nine targets for 92 yards (15.3 yards per catch) and four touchdowns over the past two weeks. And while managers can't bank on this run of touchdowns to continue, Fuller should be in the lineup versus the Browns this week as a WR3/flex play. He's got blazing speed and has the ability to convert routes down the field when Watson extends the pocket.

 

[HacheMan]

How to replace Beckham and what to do with Big Ben
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
10/9/17

For all the talk about injuries wreaking havoc with fantasy football rosters, entering Sunday’s Week 5 the only player chosen in the first few rounds of this season’s drafts to suffer a long-term malady was Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson. Well, until Sunday. That’s when fellow first-round selection New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. fractured his ankle, and as we await further word on the severity of the injury and his chances of gracing a football field again this season, this one will also be difficult for fantasy players to overcome.

Johnson injured his left wrist in Week 1 and word is he could return in late November. With Beckham, there should be more clarity on Monday as to whether there is ligament damage along with a break, but surgery is a possibility. Hopefully one of the best wide receivers in the sport can return later this season. There have been other significant injuries this season to haunt fantasy managers, of course, from Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen to Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook and others, but they weren’t chosen until Round 5 in ESPN ADP. Johnson went first overall; Beckham went sixth.

The winless Giants had already lost the next two wide receivers on the depth chart to first-half ankle injuries and the availability of Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard for Week 6 at Denver remains problematic. Then again, even if they’re deemed 100 percent, which seems unlikely, it’s going to be tough to trust any Giants for a road game against the Denver Broncos. Then in Week 7 the Giants host the Seattle Seahawks. That doesn’t figure to be much fun either. Quarterback Eli Manning hasn’t been a popular fantasy option the first five weeks and that will surely continue.

Even the worst NFL teams have someone interesting for fantasy, and the Giants really are no different in that respect. Rookie tight end Evan Engram did next to nothing in Sunday’s home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, but in his first month he averaged more than 11 PPR points per game, quite impressive for a first-year player and a top-10 figure at the position. Engram’s usage figures to rise and it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Giants line him up outside as a wide receiver, since they’re lacking options and Engram is hardly a strong blocker. Engram is on a roster in roughly 70 percent of ESPN standard leagues but that number should rise this week.

Meanwhile, Roger Lewis was pretty much the last Giants wide receiver left at the end of Sunday’s game and the second-year player from Bowling Green should also move into a key role, pending news on Marshall and Shepard. Others will be signed as well. There’s little reason to add Lewis for the Broncos and Seahawks games, however, just as it’s unlikely fantasy owners will be rushing to activate running backs Orleans Darkwa and Wayne Gallman. The Giants actually ran the ball quite well against the Chargers, with this tandem splitting touches and combining for more than 27 PPR points, but again, we can probably ignore Giants until Week 9, after their much-needed bye week.

As for external replacements for Beckham, colleague Field Yates will have the complete free-agent rundown Tuesday, but among the wide receivers to look for on free agency in your league, available in more than half of ESPN’s standard formats, are Jets Jermaine Kearse and Robby Anderson, Rams Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, Cardinals John Brown and Jaron Brown, Eagles Torrey Smith and Nelson Agholor, the 49ers’ Marquise Goodwin and Chargers rookie Mike Williams, who could debut soon.

Second down: One of the top quarterback performances of Week 5 was supplied by Philadelphia Eagles second-year option Carson Wentz, who ripped up the Arizona Cardinals' defense for 304 yards and four touchdowns. Wentz was ranked as a top-10 option for the week, in part for the intriguing matchup but also because three recognized top-10 quarterbacks were on bye (Matt Ryan, Drew Brees Kirk Cousins). Still, Wentz had never amassed three touchdown passes in any of his first 20 career games, let alone four, and fantasy owners might treat him as a top-10 option moving forward. The Eagles play at Carolina this Thursday and that doesn’t feel like a positive matchup on a short week, but Wentz is at least a solid QB2 for 10-team formats and will merit more in the better matchups.

Then there’s the starting quarterback for the other Keystone state team. Pittsburgh Steelers veteran Ben Roethlisberger tossed five interceptions in a home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and he was active in nearly half of ESPN standard leagues. Conventional wisdom held that Roethlisberger was playable in fantasy depending on venue. On the road, we pass, as the quarterback has been decidedly below average the past three seasons away from Pittsburgh. At home, he’s remained solid. However, even that’s not assured any longer. Sure, give the young Jaguars defense much credit, but Roethlisberger, who reportedly flirted with retirement last offseason, hasn’t looked good in any games so far. Perhaps there’s an injury we don’t know about, but for now there’s little reason to keep this longtime fantasy stalwart on your team in a shallow league.

Third down: An average of more than eight running backs per each of the first four weeks achieved 20 or more PPR points, but entering the Sunday night game between the Chiefs and Texans a mere three had reached the mark in Week 5. One was Chargers third-year back Melvin Gordon, who topped 100 rushing yards for the first time this season and also converted two Philip Rivers passes into touchdowns. Gordon entered this season with two receiving touchdowns in two years! On Sunday in New Jersey he bounced back from a poor Week 4 against the Eagles. In a fantasy world lacking in running back depth, he remains about as safe as one can be.

As with Gordon, Jaguars rookie Leonard Fournette topped 30 PPR points, reaching the mark for the first time on a 90-yard touchdown jaunt late in the big win. Also as with Gordon, Fournette is being ranked as a top-10 running back every week and for him it starts with volume of touches. The LSU product entered the day third among all running backs in rushing attempts, behind only Pittsburgh’s Le'Veon Bell and the Rams’ Todd Gurley, and there’s little reason to expect the team’s confidence to alter. Fournette has scored a touchdown each week and remains someone to covet in trades.

The third running back to reach 20 PPR points, and he barely made it, was Green Bay Packers rookie Aaron Jones, who ran for 125 yards and a touchdown at Dallas in place of injured Ty Montgomery. Jones, a fifth-round pick from Texas-El Paso, was bestowed 19 rushing attempts, while fellow rookie Jamaal Williams got one carry. While fantasy owners are sure to be extra excited about Jones, who remains available in nearly a third of ESPN standard leagues, there’s really no indication he’ll keep the starting role if and when, as expected, Montgomery returns in Week 6. Add Jones anyway.

Fourth down: Let’s call Sunday a success for several highly regarded, top-20 wide receivers whose availability was anything but assured. Green Bay Packers starter Davante Adams was carted off Lambeau Field in Week 4 after a frightening hit to the head and spent time in concussion protocol. Fantasy owners had to be a bit surprised upon hearing he had traveled to Dallas for Sunday’s game with the Cowboys and, based on the many calls and tweets concerning him on the Sunday morning Fantasy Focus on ESPN Radio, a majority seemed hesitant to trust him. We advised to treat Adams as the top-20 wideout that he is for the positive matchup, and Adams came through with a pair of touchdowns, including the game winner with seconds left, and a season-best 25.6 PPR points.

Then there’s Oakland Raiders veteran Michael Crabtree, who wasn’t so recommended for a home matchup with the generally strong Baltimore Ravens defense, mainly due to EJ Manuel's replacing the injured Derek Carr at quarterback. Crabtree missed Week 4 with a chest injury but found the end zone in the second quarter Sunday and turned his six catches into 82 yards. Crabtree has caught precisely six passes for at least 80 yards in each of the three games in which he’s been healthy. Compare that to the hyped Amari Cooper, who for the third consecutive week failed to reach as many as 10 receiving yards! Not only was Cooper drafted in fantasy ahead of Crabtree, despite his being outscored by Crabtree each of the past two seasons, but until a few days ago he was rostered in more leagues. Don’t cut Cooper, despite his recent struggles, but regardless of quarterback don’t presume he’s trustworthy anymore, either. Crabtree could be a top-20 option against the Chargers. Cooper should definitely not be.

 

[HacheMan]

Week 6 fantasy football flex rankings
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
10/11/17

The first segment of planned bye weeks seemed to be a problem for many fantasy owners, notably with filling out the flex position. Perhaps your team’s depth seemed fine in September, but then came October; remove some weekly options from consideration and the tune changes. We’ve got more byes this week and in future ones, so depth will be tested, and teams might have to choose from players barely ranked in the forthcoming top 100. It’s a challenging time for all. We’re all counting on you. Good luck.

Let’s flex, Week 6 style!

1. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: Topped 10 receptions in Week 5 for the third time this season.
2. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars: The 90-yard touchdown scamper helped a lot, but still, he’s scoring in every game.

3. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers: It’s not about the rushing yards. It’s about the total yards, and he’s getting them.

4. Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs: What? He hasn’t scored since Week 3? Yep, time to move on. Charcandrick is taking his job. (Hunt is fine.)

5. Todd Gurley, RB, Rams: First rough game came against Seattle. Gurley is not the first to struggle against that team.

6. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: Back from bye and hopefully healthy and with a few red zone looks coming his way.

7. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans: One of two Texans among the top-10 overall scorers so far. The rookie quarterback is the other. Trust.

8. Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons

9. Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers

10. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers: You know, anyone can get hurt, and just because Allen has had that issue more than others doesn’t mean it will happen again. Not thinking about selling high here.

11. Michael Thomas, WR, Saints

12. DeMarco Murray, RB, Titans: Would be more concerned if his backup was usurping the starting role. But that’s not the case. Titans need their quarterback to return.

13. C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos

14. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers: Disappeared at the end of the Dallas win, and while it’s not worry time, his fantasy value does seem awfully tied into touchdowns.

15. Brandin Cooks, WR, Patriots: He’s fifth on the team in receptions, which kind of makes this ranking seem odd, I admit. Let’s be a bit more patient.

16. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts: Proving that his talent supersedes the talent level of the guy throwing the football.

17. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Well, now that they’ve traded for a Hall of Fame running back, just imagine how many more targets this Hall of Fame receiver will get! C’mon. Nothing changes here.

18. Jay Ajayi, RB, Dolphins: It’d be nice to see him score a touchdown. Heck, let’s see the Dolphins score.

19. Jordan Howard, RB, Bears

20. Lamar Miller, RB, Texans: Can’t complain about consistency; between 56 and 75 rushing yards each week.

21. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers: It’s his turn to face the scary Patrick Peterson monster. And by the way, that’s absolutely a thing. If you’ve got better options, sit Evans. Peterson is the best.

22. Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs

23. Michael Crabtree, WR, Raiders: Perhaps sometime in 2020 we’ll all definitively proclaim he’s not the team’s top wide receiver. Amazing how people view the Oakland wide receiver hierarchy, still.

24. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos

25. Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers: What a weird situation here. Hyde owners shouldn’t panic just because the head coach might bench him for an undrafted and unproven rookie on a whim, but be prepared.

26. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Eagles: Just faced the Peterson monster and it wasn’t much fun. Easier matchup this week.

27. Davante Adams, WR, Packers: Give him credit. Not only played in Dallas but scored twice.

28. Chris Hogan, WR, Patriots: Can’t say he’ll actually be changing ranking places with Cooks soon, but Hogan is becoming safe WR2 option.

29. Golden Tate, WR, Lions: Not all weeks will be great. Sure would be nice to have more of a threat of touchdowns, though.

30. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Raiders: His believers think the return of Derek Carr will change everything statistically, but don’t be so sure. He’s just not the same guy.

31. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers: Looked pretty good in his season debut.

32. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: If I were coaching the Saints I’d probably give the rookie more chances than this veteran. But until the Saints actually do that, both are worth it, and Ingram comes first. For now.

33. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers: Whine all you want about him, but he’s a rookie running back on pace for 86 catches. There’s nothing wrong with him at all.

34. Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings: Uh oh, the injury bug has found him again. Hope this doesn’t go like last season, when Diggs rocked in September and then stopped rocking.

35. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos

36. Pierre Garcon, WR, 49ers: He’s on pace for 90 catches and 1,213 yards. That’s a top-20 WR easy.

37. Ty Montgomery, RB, Packers: Some will say it’s ridiculous that the rookie Packer isn’t ranked ahead, but do you know what the team will do? Montgomery, when healthy, and that might not be this week, isn’t going away.

38. Duke Johnson Jr., RB, Browns: Looks odd to see him ranked here, but a mere six running backs have more PPR points this season.

39. Javorius Allen, RB, Ravens: And this guy is 15th in PPR scoring at RB. Rushing attempts aren’t the key anymore.

40. Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints: Future star, of course.

41. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers

42. Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings: Let’s stop pretending it matters who plays QB for the Vikings, OK? Thielen is just a good player.

43. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: So, ya gonna play this week, Rob? Just give us notice, that’s all we ask.

44. Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins

45. DeSean Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: Whined about lack of targets and look what happened! He got more! Works every time!

46. Terrelle Pryor Sr., WR, Redskins: I like how some fantasy owners believe their players will be rested and so much more awesome coming off the bye, and others think they’d forgotten how to perform. It’s just a week off.

47. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs: He’s in concussion protocol so it’s no certainty he plays this week.

48. Mike Gillislee, RB, Patriots: Not so much fun to rely on when he’s not scoring touchdowns. And he hasn’t scored since Week 2. Sad face.

49. Frank Gore, RB, Colts: Not looking like this will be his 10th season with 1,000 rushing yards. But he is giving you something each week.

50. Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons

51. Devin Funchess, WR, Panthers: Ask and you shall receive. He and Ed Dickson have really stepped up lately.

52. Will Fuller V, WR, Texans: Won’t be scoring two touchdowns every week, which makes him a prime sell-high choice.

53. Rishard Matthews, WR, Titans

54. Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles: Seventh in receiving yards, and tied for third in receptions, and not just at his position -- in the NFL. If you’ve got Ertz and Gronk, play ‘em both.

55. Amari Cooper, WR, Raiders: We know you want to give up on him, and this ranking seems unbecoming of someone of his ability level and track record, but be patient. He’s really good.

56. Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings: Not a huge surprise that he looks like the Vikings back to own.

57. Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals: He’s the Cardinals back to own. No, really, he is.

58. Rob Kelley, RB, Redskins: We keep the theme going, even though Kelley really hasn’t done much.

59. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Eagles

60. Elijah McGuire, RB, Jets: As of this writing, it’s unclear if Bilal Powell and/or Matt Forte will play, but if you’re running the Jets, why not see what this rookie can do?

61. Sammy Watkins, WR, Rams

62. Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots

63. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Lions

64. Tarik Cohen, RB, Bears: Things have quieted down for him statistically, which isn’t a surprise.

65. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers

66. DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins: We’ve all seen Jay Cutler play poorly before, but he’s reaching some new lows recently.

67. Alex Collins, RB, Ravens: The problem here is the Ravens don’t trust he can hold on to the football. Otherwise, he’s great.

68. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: Still think he’s the most valuable Carolina back?

69. Theo Riddick, RB, Lions: Had a season-best 53 yards from scrimmage in Week 5 and 53 really isn’t much.

70. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Ravens

71. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns: Keep him owned but on the bench.

72. Latavius Murray, RB, Vikings: Seems like he should be on your bench as well.

73. Tyrell Williams, WR, Chargers: The debut of rookie Mike Williams is nigh.

74. Willie Snead, WR, Saints: Should debut this week, and if it goes well, watch him be a popular free agent add next week. Why not act now?

75. Chris Thompson, RB, Redskins: Not at all likely to keep scoring touchdowns at his current rate.

76. James White, RB, Patriots

77. Aaron Jones, RB, Packers: If Montgomery is ruled out, then Jones moves into top 30 on this list. He looked that good.

78. Jamison Crowder, WR, Redskins

79. Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants: Someone has to catch the Eli Manning passes ... other than the Denver secondary of course.

80. Delanie Walker, TE, Titans

81. Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins

82. Ricardo Louis, WR, Browns: Watch him and new QB Kevin Hogan lead the Browns to greatness.

83. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans: People still love him, but that’s 16 yards on 10 carries the past two weeks.

84. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Buccaneers

85. Marlon Mack, RB, Colts: He probably should be the starter already, but Gore is very respected and still competent.

86. Matt Breida, RB, 49ers: He could be the San Francisco starter soon, believe it or not.

87. Adrian Peterson, RB, Cardinals: He has surprised us before. Kinda reminds me of when Emmitt Smith finished things up in Arizona except his final year actually was productive.

88. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings: If you want to believe it’s because Case Keenum was at QB, then whatever works for you.

89. Cameron Brate, TE, Buccaneers: No longer hearing from all the people who swore rookie O.J. Howard would make Brate disappear anymore. Hmmm.

90. Evan Engram, TE, Giants

91. Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers: Has reached 50 receiving yards in one game. Doesn’t sound so enticing anymore.

92. Marvin Jones Jr., WR, Lions

93. Eric Decker, WR, Titans

94. Mike Wallace, WR, Ravens: He caught a pair of 50-yard passes just last week!

95. Taylor Gabriel, WR, Falcons: Reasonable fill-in insurance if Mohamed Sanu isn’t healthy enough to suit up.

96. Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts

97. Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Saints

98. John Brown, WR, Cardinals

99. Jermaine Kearse, WR, Jets

100. Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams

Others: Robert Woods, WR, Rams; Jamaal Charles, RB, Broncos; Orleans Darkwa, RB, Giants; D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texans; Jaron Brown, WR, Cardinals; Marqise Lee, WR, Jaguars; Robby Anderson, WR, Jets; Shane Vereen, RB, Giants; Matt Forte, RB, Jets; Roger Lewis, WR, Giants; Wayne Gallman, RB, Giants; Samaje Perine, RB, Redskins; Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers

 

[HacheMan]

Best and worst wide receiver matchups for fantasy football Week 6
Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER
10/11/17

By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're now able to identify where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking matchups between the two positions, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings and fantasy advice each week this NFL season.

Below are the receivers with the best and worst Week 6 matchups, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.


To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet.

Downloadable cheat sheet PDF

Because of the size of the chart in the PDF, here is a key to help you get the most out of it each week:

Rt = Number of routes run by each player during the 2017 season
LWR/Slot/RWR = Percentage of the player's routes run from left wide receiver, the slot and right wide receiver, respectively
T/R = Percentage of a player's pass routes in which he's targeted
F/R = Fantasy points per pass route
Green suggests an advantage for the offensive player, while red indicates an advantage for the defender
An "S" indicates projected shadow coverage

Advantageous matchups


Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Jaron Brown vs. Buccaneers' Vernon Hargreaves III and Robert McClain

The Buccaneers are surrendering an NFL-high 48.3 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. Wideouts lined up across from Hargreaves have been targeted 40 times (sixth most) and have accrued 76 fantasy points (fourth). The Bucs have allowed the second-most fantasy points to players lined up in the slot, which bodes well for Fitzgerald (67 percent slot this season). He'll be on Bucs slot man McClain throughout this weekend's game. The Browns will see a fairly even share of Hargreaves and Brent Grimes. Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Jaron Brown each scored a touchdown when these teams met in Week 2 last year.


Panthers' Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess vs. Eagles' Jalen Mills and Rasul Douglas

Only the aforementioned Buccaneers have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than the Eagles this season. Philly is allowing a league-high 35.0 fantasy points to receivers lined up on the perimeter, which is where Benjamin (82 percent) and Funchess (76 percent) generally align. Mills has become a poster boy for this article and was targeted eight more times in Week 5 to bring his league-high total to 59. Receivers lined up across from Mills have piled up 90 fantasy points, which is also tops in the NFL. With 57 fantasy points allowed, Douglas ranks 16th in the category. Expect Carolina's top two receivers to be targeted early and often on Thursday night.

Colts' T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief vs. Titans' Adoree' Jackson and LeShaun Sims

Only the Buccaneers and Eagles have surrendered more fantasy points to wide receivers than the Titans this season. Sensing a trend? The rookie Jackson has been picked on often and has surrendered 64 fantasy points in five games (seventh most). Sims has been a part-time player (79 routes faced) but has still managed to rank 40th in fantasy points allowed with 40. Hilton fleeced Tennessee for 230 yards and two touchdowns in two meetings last year, but a) Andrew Luck played and b) Tennessee has almost completely overhauled at cornerback this year. Still, the matchup is ripe for the picking with the Titans' struggling so badly against the position. Lock Hilton in and consider Moncrief for your flex.


Steelers' JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Chiefs' Phillip Gaines

As well as Marcus Peters has played this season, the Chiefs have still managed to allow the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year. Part of that is game script (teams have been pass-heavy in comeback mode against the Chiefs in all five games), but an even bigger part has been the struggles of the team's other corners. Gaines is the team's slot corner and wideouts lined up against him have put up 44 fantasy points on the year (32nd most). Smith-Schuster has emerged as the Steelers' slot man and has actually run more routes than Martavis Bryant over the past three weeks. He's an intriguing DFS tournament dart throw. Terrance Mitchell has also struggled (78 fantasy points allowed, third most), which will provide some relief from Peters for both Bryant and Antonio Brown on the perimeter. Brown caught 10 of 16 targets for 172 yards and two touchdowns in two meetings against the Chiefs last year.


Vikings' Adam Thielen vs. Packers' Quinten Rollins

Thielen and Stefon Diggs both annihilated the Packers' secondary last season, and considering that Green Bay's cornerback woes remain, both are intriguing plays in Week 6. Thielen caught 16 of 21 targets for 243 yards and two scores, and Diggs hauled in 13 of 16 targets for 211 yards and two touchdowns during the 2016 meetings. In terms of fantasy points allowed, the Packers have been better than average against perimeter receivers this year, but they have allowed the 10th-most points to players lined up in the slot. That's where Thielen has aligned on 65 percent of his routes this season, which is why he gets a larger boost than Diggs. Both obviously should be in lineups.


Redskins' Terrelle Pryor Sr. and Jamison Crowder vs. 49ers' Dontae Johnson, Rashard Robinson and K'Waun Williams

The 49ers' starting cornerback trio has struggled all season, and life won't be any easier for them against Washington. Johnson has allowed 69 fantasy points (fifth most), Williams has surrendered 50 (22nd) and Robinson sits at 44 (35th). Pryor will primarily see Johnson and Robinson in coverage, and Crowder should feast on Williams in the slot. Josh Doctson figures to see more work off the bye, though he's still a risky play.

Tough matchups


Buccaneers' Mike Evans vs. Cardinals' Patrick Peterson

This week's most intriguing showdown features one of the game's top, young wide receivers in Evans and arguably the league's best cover corner in Peterson. When these teams met in Week 2 last season, Peterson shadowed Evans on 30 of the 40 pass plays Peterson was on the field for. Evans was targeted a whopping 18 times in the game but was limited to four catches, 49 yards and one touchdown. Incredibly, half of those targets came on the 22 routes he ran when Peterson wasn't on him. Evans has lined up on the perimeter 80 percent of the time this year and you can expect Peterson to be on him for nearly all of those plays. Avoid Evans in DFS cash games. As usual, DeSean Jackson is the indirect beneficiary here. Expect him to feast on Justin Bethel throughout this contest. Despite Peterson's strong play, Arizona has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Players lined up across from Bethel have found the end zone four times, which is tied for most in the league.


Saints' Michael Thomas vs. Lions' Darius Slay

When these teams met in Week 13 last season, Slay shadowed Thomas on 35 of his 40 routes (including 35 of 36 on the perimeter). Thomas managed only four catches for 42 yards on five targets in the game, including two catches for 24 yards on three targets against Slay. Needless to say, expect the Lions to deploy a similar game plan this week. Considering Slay's success in last season's meeting, Thomas needs to be downgraded and should be avoided in DFS cash games. Ted Ginn Jr. will be a sneaky play against Nevin Lawson and D.J. Hayden on the other side.


Packers' Jordy Nelson vs. Vikings' Xavier Rhodes

This is a tricky one. Rhodes didn't shadow during the first meeting between these teams last season, but he ended up chasing Rhodes for roughly half of the second meeting. Nelson has, once again, been terrific this season, but so has Adams on the other side. Aaron Rodgers is no dummy. If Rhodes is following Nelson, Rodgers won't have any qualms about featuring Adams against struggling Trae Waynes. Receivers lined up across from Waynes have scored 56 fantasy points this season (18th most), and those across from Rhodes have totaled 34 (57th most). Though Rhodes would obviously present a challenge for Nelson should he shadow, it's worth noting that both Nelson (22 targets, 14 receptions, 227 yards, 3 touchdowns) and Adams (12-7-70-1) had little trouble filling the box score during the two 2016 meetings. This is a situation to monitor throughout the week.


Rams' Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods vs. Jaguars' A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey

Bouye and Ramsey have been lights out for a Jaguars defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. Watkins and Woods have both lined up on the perimeter 74 percent of the time this season, which is where they'll see the Jaguars' dynamic duo throughout this weekend's game. Watkins caught both of his targets for 74 yards on seven routes when lined up opposite Ramsey last year, but that's obviously a small sample and he was with Buffalo at the time. Both receivers should obviously be downgraded and are not recommended flex options. Though I honed in on the perimeter matchups here, note that the Jaguars have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to slot receivers. That suggests Cooper Kupp will also be in for a long day against Aaron Colvin.


Jaguars' Marqise Lee vs. Rams' Trumaine Johnson

Johnson hasn't shadowed often over the past three seasons, but he has during two of the team's past three games (Pierre Garcon in Week 3 and Dez Bryant in Week 4). What's notable about those two games is that the opposing offense had a clear No. 1 perimeter receiver, whereas Seattle's Doug Baldwin (whom Johnson didn't shadow last week) primarily lines up in the slot. Lee usually lines up outside (86 percent of the time this season) and is the Jaguars' clear top perimeter receiver ahead of rookie Keelan Cole. That said, expect Johnson to be on Lee often during this week's game. The Rams have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to wideouts this year. Lee should be downgraded and Cole can be viewed as a desperation flex against Kayvon Webster in 24-team leagues.


Chiefs' Tyreek Hill vs. Steelers' Joe Haden, Artie Burns and Mike Hilton

The Steelers have surrendered an NFL-low 18.6 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. Granted, their schedule has been light, but that mark is a whopping 13.6 points below league average for wide receiver units this season. Terrific across the board, they've allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to players lined up wide to the left, second fewest to those wide to the right and fourth fewest to the slot. That's key here considering Hill lines up all over the Chiefs' offensive formation. Albeit in a lesser role, Hill caught nine of 13 targets for 51 yards and one touchdown in two games against the Steelers last season. Hill should be downgraded a bit here, but his explosive play-making ability means he should be locked into lineups.


Dolphins' DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills vs. Falcons' Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford

The Falcons have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to wideouts this year. That includes 17.0 points per game to players lined up on the perimeter, which is seventh best. That doesn't bode well for Parker (79 percent perimeter) and Stills (59 percent) this week. Both should be downgraded. Jarvis Landry, meanwhile, will face off with slot man Brian Poole. Poole is a solid player, but Atlanta has surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to players lined up in the slot. Landry is a fine Week 6 play, especially considering his massive 32 percent target share this year.


Patriots' Danny Amendola vs. Jets' Buster Skrine

The Jets are allowing an NFL-low 8.8 fantasy points per game to slot receivers this season. A big part of that success has been Skrine, who has aligned inside on 76 percent of the pass plays he's been on the field for this season. Though Skrine has been good this year, it's worth noting that Amendola has faced him on 66 routes in his career. The results were nine catches on nine targets for 94 yards and one touchdown. Amendola has lined up in the slot on 87 percent of his routes and has been heavily targeted when active this season. He's still in the flex discussion, but early-season indications suggest this may be one of his tougher challenges.


Raiders' Amari Cooper vs. Chargers' Casey Hayward

When these teams met in Week 15 last season, Hayward shadowed Cooper and Trevor Williams shadowed Michael Crabtree. Cooper was limited to one catch for 28 yards on three targets in the game. Crabtree posted an 8-6-60-1 line. For that reason, I'm projecting the same setup here in Week 6. The variable that could throw this off is the fact that Cooper has struggled mightily so far this season. It's possible the Chargers have noticed that and decide to put their shutdown corner (Hayward) on Crabtree. That's something to keep in mind as you make lineup decisions this week, though to his credit, Williams has held his own opposite Hayward so far this season.

Other notes

The Giants' Janoris Jenkins shadows quite a bit, but it's very possible -- if not likely -- that he simply plays his side this week against Denver. That would mean Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders would see a fairly even share of both Jenkins and struggling second-year man Eli Apple during the game.

If the Lions' Kenny Golladay is out this week, don't be surprised if Saints rookie Marshon Lattimore shadows Marvin Jones at least part of the game. Lattimore has been outstanding and would mean a big downgrade for Jones.

The Giants' Sterling Shepard is questionable for this week's game against Denver, but even if he plays, most of his routes will come in the slot against Chris Harris Jr. That's about as tough a matchup Shepard will see this season. He's best left on your bench, even with Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall out for the year.

 

[HacheMan]

Watching Week 6 roles for Packers' Jones, other running backs
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

There’s always plenty to watch in a given NFL weekend, but fantasy owners will likely be spending a bit more focus this time around on the Green Bay Packers-Minnesota Vikings tilt. While there’s turmoil presenting itself in many running back situations, there’s obvious upside with these two backfields. After all, are you really interested in which New York Giants running back gets the first carry Sunday at Denver? I didn’t think so. However, when it comes to Ty Montgomery versus Aaron Jones and Jerick McKinnon versus Latavius Murray, the tension is high!
Fantasy owners thinking solely about the most recent NFL weekend are obviously hoping that Jones and McKinnon end up being the top options, and we should expect them to be pretty popular in starting lineups. The problem is, Montgomery and his busted ribs did indeed practice on Wednesday. He could be in the lineup come Sunday. As for the Vikings, Murray is, well, still around. Fantasy owners don’t always think logically, though. Even if we would prefer to see Jones and McKinnon getting 20 touches apiece moving forward, it hardly means the coaches share that sentiment. For what it's worth, the ESPN Fantasy rankers all went with Montgomery over Jones, but four of the five have McKinnon over Murray.

Regardless, what fantasy owners need to do, even if the real coaches don’t follow their wishes (as if!) is to continue to roster both options, just in case Montgomery and Murray remain very much in the picture -- which is what I expect to happen. Murray is among the most-dropped running backs this week. It’s certainly possible such a move will prove to be prophetic, since he’s hardly at full strength after offseason ankle surgery. His performance has shown it, and McKinnon looks better, but we’re not there yet.

Several running backs on the most-dropped list, actually, shouldn’t be there. It’s one thing to part ways with now-former Cardinal Chris Johnson -- who probably will find new employment real soon, by the way -- and Jacquizz Rodgers, who was reduced to a backup role. However, players such as Eddie Lacy, Wendell Smallwood, Tarik Cohen and others still matter and could play important roles, even in shallow leagues. Ultimately, it seems pretty clear that Jones has skills and McKinnon is better than Murray, but coaches don’t always agree. If there’s any position to stash on fantasy benches just in case, it’s running back.

Answered prayers: Of course, many eyes will also be on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Arizona Cardinals tilt to see if recently acquired running back Adrian Peterson has anything left in the tank. Peterson, who currently has only 10.5 more PPR points than you and me in his four games, claims his prayers were answered by the Tuesday trade from New Orleans to Arizona. We'll see. The expectations don’t seem to be overly generous for the 32-year-old, nor should they be, but Peterson does figure to be on a lot more rosters this week than he was in Week 5. When it comes to running back, it’s hard to rule just about anyone out.

Another thing to watch in this game is whether Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans can be the first at his position to produce his normal excellent statistics despite full-time shadowing by stellar Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson. Evans isn’t going to be benched by fantasy owners, nor did we advocate this in our rankings, but that time could be coming. Peterson has controlled top-20 options (if not higher) Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton and Alshon Jeffery, among others, but now he gets a first-round fantasy pick. It’s not only about team matchups, but individual ones, and they often explain why wide receivers with the highest pedigree aren’t ranked that way.

Speaking of, um, pedigree: Oakland Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper scored a touchdown among his five receptions in Week 1 against the Titans, and has been awfully quiet statistically since. Over his past three games, Cooper has caught just four passes and failed to reach 10 receiving yards in any game. The pending return of quarterback Derek Carr for a home game with the Chargers on Sunday would seem to be a major positive for all Raiders hopes, but Carr missed only one game and things weren’t going so hot prior to his absence.

For whatever reason, be it health or simply bad luck, Cooper, who was drafted as a WR1 option this season, is currently being outscored by 82 other wide receivers in PPR formats. Stefon Diggs scored more in Week 3 alone! Fantasy owners are still relying on Raiders like Cooper and running back Marshawn Lynch, but all these offensive woes haven’t been just because Carr sat for one week. Perhaps the Chargers' defense can help move things along toward a turnaround.

AFC East supremacy: Only one member of the New York Jets is rostered in more than 60 percent of ESPN standard leagues, and that guy -- running back Bilal Powell -- might not even play Sunday against the New England Patriots. This game might seem like an unfair fight, but both the Jets and Patriots are actually 3-2 and the winner stands alone in first place. New England’s defense has been subpar, though it held Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers mostly in check in Week 5. Can Josh McCown and his weapons really do something special? The Patriots have been permitting 25 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and second place is 20.8 (Colts)!

Running backs also score the most fantasy points per game against the Patriots, so with Powell likely out and Matt Forte probably joining him on the bench, rookie Elijah McGuire is pushing for RB2 status. McGuire and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins are among the most added players this week. Yeah, you can bet I’m interested in what the Jets do. A win over the Patriots would shock a lot of people but, from a fantasy standpoint, don’t be surprised to see several Jets swing contests.

 

[HacheMan]

Answering Week 6's biggest fantasy football questions
ESPN INSIDER

Need some help setting your lineup this week? NFL Nation reporters answer the biggest fantasy questions -- provided by ESPN fantasy football analyst Mike Clay -- across the league for Week 6.

AFC EAST


Buffalo Bills

Do you expect one of the team's backup tight ends to be a consistent target in the passing game while Charles Clay is out?

The only candidate is Nick O'Leary, who had a career-high five catches for 54 yards on Sunday. With Clay down, O'Leary -- a sixth-round pick in 2015 -- is now the receiver or tight end with the most experience playing with QB Tyrod Taylor. Given how Taylor has targeted his wide receivers an average of 10 times per game, the lowest rate in the NFL for a group of wide receivers since at least 2001, I believe O'Leary can become Taylor's favorite target until Clay returns. Coach Sean McDermott noted Monday that he likes the direction O'Leary is headed and that O'Leary has Taylor's trust. -- Mike Rodak


Miami Dolphins

Jarvis Landry has enjoyed a massive 32 percent target share so far. Should we expect something similar moving forward?

It's unreasonable for that to continue for 16 games because it's not working. The Dolphins are last in the NFL in scoring, total offense and passing offense. They need to give the ball more to running back Jay Ajayi and receivers Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker (if healthy) to have long-term success. -- James Walker



New England Patriots

Chris Hogan is playing more, running more routes and seeing more targets than Brandin Cooks. Is it fair to say Hogan is their No. 1 WR?

Hogan is technically the No. 1 receiver because when the team runs sets with just one receiver, it's more often than not Hogan who stays on the field. At the same time, fantasy owners should still expect some week-to-week volatility as it relates to the production of Hogan and Cooks. One week it could be Hogan. The next it could be Cooks. That's just the way the Patriots' offense is structured. -- Mike Reiss


New York Jets

Austin Seferian-Jenkins has handled a 22 percent target share since his return in Week 3. Can we expect that high-end usage to continue?

Yes, look for him to remain an integral part of the passing attack. Two reasons: After missing the first two games, he's building his comfort level in the offense. Also, their next two opponents -- the Patriots and Dolphins -- have allowed 28 catches apiece to tight ends, the fourth-highest total in the league. The Patriots have surrendered four touchdowns. So, yes, Seferian-Jenkins is a player to watch. -- Rich Cimini


AFC NORTH


Baltimore Ravens

Buck Allen has seemingly taken on Danny Woodhead's projected role, handling 18 percent of the team's targets. Can we expect that massive usage to continue?

Yes, for at least the next four games while Woodhead is out. Allen is easily the best pass-catcher out of the backfield right now, and he should get more room underneath if QB Joe Flacco stretches the field like he did in Week 5. What makes Allen valuable is he's tied for second on red zone targets with three. But his role will be reduced drastically by mid-November, when Woodhead is expected to come off injured reserve. -- Jamison Hensley

Cincinnati Bengals

What have you learned about Joe Mixon through five games? Do you expect him to continue to be the team's workhorse out of the bye?

Jeremy Hill has been getting an increasingly small share of the snaps, and that shouldn't change after Mixon scored his first career touchdown. Mixon is still going to have to split snaps with Giovani Bernard, but he'll get the majority of the snaps going forward, as has been the case for the past few weeks. -- Katherine Terrell


Cleveland Browns

Which skill-position players do you expect to benefit from the quarterback change to Kevin Hogan?

Tight end David Njoku, who has improved each game. Hogan has twice found Njoku for touchdowns longer than 20 yards, and as long as Njoku makes the catches, Hogan will keep looking for him. -- Pat McManamon


Pittsburgh Steelers

JuJu Smith-Schuster has run more routes than Martavis Bryant in three straight games. Is the rookie now the team's No. 2 WR?

In certain sets he will be, though Bryant is still the Steelers' No. 2 in targets (31) by a wide margin. Eli Rogers is also back in the lineup to help against Kansas City's man coverages. Expect the Steelers to find ways to play Smith-Schuster and Rogers together at times while utilizing Bryant as the primary big-play option, outside of Antonio Brown. The team is dedicated to cracking the code on Bryant, so it's hard to call Smith-Schuster the definitive No. 2 just yet, though his trust with QB Ben Roethlisberger is rising steadily. -- Jeremy Fowler


AFC SOUTH


Houston Texans

Will Fuller V's touchdown pace is unsustainable and he's caught only six balls in two games. Can we expect more targets moving forward, or should we sell high now?

Expect more targets for Fuller going forward as he continues to get more reps in with QB Deshaun Watson following his return from his broken collarbone. Watson and coach Bill O'Brien continually praise the young receiver for his route running and said he's gotten stronger and improved his hands from last season. The Browns rank 19th in passing defense, so Fuller could get some more targets on Sunday. -- Sarah Barshop


Indianapolis Colts

How much do you expect Marlon Mack to eat into Frank Gore's workload following the rookie's impressive Week 5 performance?

Coach Chuck Pagano said it would be "wise to try to find ways to get [Mack] the football and get him more involved" after the rookie had three runs of at least 16 yards while finishing with 91 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries against San Francisco last week. Mack should see an increase from his eight carries a game, but Gore will remain the primary back for the time being because Mack still needs to improve his running in between the tackles -- he has 11 carries for no gain or a loss of yardage -- and his pass-blocking. Teams aren't going to continue to let Mack get to the edge and turn the corner. The quicker the fourth-round draft pick improves in those areas, the quicker his workload will increase out of the backfield because he has the "home run" ability. -- Mike Wells


Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars' defense/special-teams unit is, by far, tops in fantasy. We know the unit is loaded with talent, so is it fair to say the dominance will continue moving forward?

I don't think it would be fair to expect that unit to continue to score touchdowns at the rate it is -- four in the first five games -- but in terms of forcing turnovers and being one of the best pass defenses in the league, absolutely. The Jaguars already have forced two more turnovers than they did last season and lead the NFL in turnover margin at plus-10. The defense has given up only five pass plays of 30 yards or more and allowed only three touchdown passes so far. -- Mike DiRocco


Tennessee Titans

When can we expect Corey Davis back in the lineup?

Davis is out for Week 6, but he's starting to join the team for stretching at practice. The most reasonable timetable for his return will be Week 9 against Baltimore following the Titans' Week 8 bye. Coach Mike Mularkey hasn't ruled Davis out for Week 7 in Cleveland, but they would certainly make sure he's 100 percent because he's injured this hamstring twice and it's cost him at least a month of action each time. When Davis returns, he could evolve into a player who is worth a weekly start in fantasy. -- Cameron Wolfe


AFC WEST


Denver Broncos

With the team fresh off its bye week, should we expect any change in the distribution of touches in the backfield?

If you mean whether there will be more clarity about the specific number of carries each of their top three backs will get each week, the answer is no. C.J. Anderson will still lead the way, but Jamaal Charles will continue to get between nine and 12 carries per game, while Devontae Booker's workload will steadily increase given that he played in just one game before the bye. Coach Vance Joseph said he considers all three to have "the potential to be the No. 1 guy'' in terms of impact. But Anderson will still get the most carries if all goes as planned -- he's had 20, 25 and 20 carries in the Broncos' three wins. -- Jeff Legwold


Kansas City Chiefs

With WR Chris Conley out, could one of the team's recent fourth-rounders -- Demarcus Robinson or Jehu Chesson -- enjoy a breakout?

Robinson has the better chance of the two. Chesson has been inactive for each of the past four games. Robinson has just three catches this season, but his playing time will increase significantly in Conley's absence. Robinson runs well after the catch, so the Chiefs could look to feature him with bubble screens and other open-field type of plays. -- Adam Teicher


Los Angeles Chargers

Do you expect Casey Hayward to shadow Amari Cooper (as he did Week 15 last year), Michael Crabtree or neither?

Is Cooper worth shadowing at this point? The Alabama product has just 13 catches for 118 receiving yards and one touchdown on the season. He's dropped four passes this year and has just four catches in his past three games. The Chargers are likely to keep Hayward on the left side of the field defensively, where he traditionally plays, and let him cover whichever receiver lines up in front of him. Or perhaps he'll shadow Crabtree. -- Eric D. Williams


Oakland Raiders

What's gone wrong with Amari Cooper? Could a rebound game be on tap against the Chargers this week?

Breaking the tension a bit this week, Cooper laughed and said the suggestion that he hid his frustration with his play this season -- four catches for 23 yards in the Raiders' three-game losing streak -- was "funny." He also told me he did not have to voice any displeasure, that the ball would eventually "find" him. But against the Chargers, who have the worst rush defense (161.2 yards allowed per game) in the NFL? Only if the Raiders are able to first run on the Bolts, simply because they want to limit the exposure to Derek Carr's back, which has a fractured transverse process, to the Chargers' dangerous pass rush. Cooper is a high-risk, high-reward option this week. -- Paul Gutierrez


NFC EAST


Dallas Cowboys

All the man does is make plays. So the people want to know: Is there any chance #FreeBriceButler will ever happen?

The coaches like Terrance Williams more than people know, so there likely won't be a change in the starting lineup. But you have seen Brice Butler take more snaps in the past three games. They've come at the expense mostly of Cole Beasley. Butler is averaging a ridiculous 25.9 yards per catch. He's made clutch catches against Arizona and Green Bay. He had a strong offseason and training camp. He's earned the right to play more, but the coaches have been loyal to Williams over the years. Will there be a lineup change? Probably not, but Butler should see more snaps. -- Todd Archer


New York Giants

Do you expect Janoris Jenkins to shadow Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders in Denver?

Thomas seems the more likely option. He's the bigger, stronger of the two receivers, whom Jenkins can handle. Remember the Giants are without Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and could have Donte Deayon in his first NFL game covering the slot. That's the spot that needs to be watched closely come Sunday night. -- Jordan Raanan


Philadelphia Eagles

What was the most notable fantasy performance from Thursday Night Football?

Zach Ertz continued his monster start to the 2017 campaign. Already the leading tight end in catches and yards entering the game, he found the end zone twice against the Panthers. He now has four touchdowns on the young season, matching a career-high. Quarterback Carson Wentz has found his go-to receiving option. -- Tim McManus


Washington Redskins

What's gone wrong with Jamison Crowder? Do you expect him to get rolling in a good matchup against K'Waun Williams this weekend?

Good question. Crowder has been banged up a little bit since camp, starting with a hamstring issue, and coach Jay Gruden said that might be contributing to the receiver's slow start. Gruden also said it's his fault that Crowder hasn't been targeted more and that he'd like to get him the ball more on bubble screens, etc. They want to get him the ball in space, something they haven't done enough of -- the emergence of Chris Thompson as a dangerous playmaker has cut into that. My guess is they'll make a stronger effort to get Crowder the ball more on Sunday. Keep in mind the 49ers allow 13.03 yards per catch to players aligned in the slot, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Only six teams are worse. (File this away: The damage against the 49ers by the slot receiver comes between the numbers and the hashes; Crowder has 66 career catches in this area for 13.06 yards per catch and four touchdowns). -- John Keim


NFC NORTH


Chicago Bears

Mitch Trubisky aimed 44 percent of his throws at tight ends on Monday. Is that a sign of things to come from the rookie?

Trubisky targeted tight ends out of necessity. The Bears just don't have much at wide receiver -- outside of Kendall Wright, who led Chicago with four catches for 46 yards in Monday night's loss. Markus Wheaton has been a disappointment. Josh Bellamy is a special-teamer. Deonte Thompson just got cut. And Tanner Gentry and Tre McBride are relative unknowns. Tight end Zach Miller is the most proven weapon in the passing game. Trubisky can trust Miller. Now, I don't think the tight end position in general -- Dion Sims had some bad drops in Week 5 -- will be targeted 44 percent of the time every week, but I strongly believe in Miller's ability to help fantasy owners. He's the real deal, just as long as he stays healthy. -- Jeff Dickerson


Detroit Lions

Darren Fells has been playing more snaps than Eric Ebron and was only five behind in pass routes in Week 5. In terms of the team's top pass-catching tight end, are we nearing a changing of the guard?

It's tough to say that because they have two very different roles within the offense. Fells is, by far, the better blocker. It's why the Lions signed him. He's more athletic than people give him credit for, too. That said, not sure he's completely replacing Ebron. They've been in a timeshare for most of the season already and I would expect that to continue, at least until Taylor Decker returns. As far as Ebron, he's not in the best place now. He met with Matthew Stafford this week to try and fix some of what's going on and, if he can, he's always shown he has the potential to be a mismatch. He has to show it, though. I wouldn't trust either from a fantasy perspective right now. -- Michael Rothstein


Green Bay Packers

If Ty Montgomery returns in Minnesota, how do you expect touches to be distributed between him and rookie Aaron Jones?

There's plenty of sentiment inside Lambeau Field to stick with Jones after what he did last week in his first career start: 19 carries, 125 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys. But coach Mike McCarthy also loves Montgomery's versatility, so we could be looking at some kind of job-sharing plan if Montgomery is cleared to return from his broken ribs. If not, then McCarthy will try to ride Jones again. -- Rob Demovsky


Minnesota Vikings

Do you expect Xavier Rhodes to shadow Jordy Nelson this week?

Remember the last time the Vikings played the Packers and Minnesota's defensive backs went rogue on their assignments on the first series so Terence Newman could cover Nelson? Yeah, don't expect something like that to happen again. As has been the case all season with his opponent's No. 1 receiver, Rhodes is expected to cover Nelson one-on-one on the outside. What's different through five games this season is the cornerback following receivers into the slot, a trend that could continue to grow. In Chicago, the ball was not once thrown in Rhodes' direction, which has never happened in his career. You can expect the opposite of that to happen against the Packers. -- Courtney Cronin


NFC SOUTH


Atlanta Falcons

Can we expect an expanded role for Austin Hooper in the passing game following the Week 5 bye?

The Falcons firmly believe in Hooper's playmaking ability, even if the numbers don't show it. He was targeted just twice in each of the first three games -- including on an 88-yard catch-and-run touchdown against the Bears -- and has 13 targets on 96 routes run this season. But against Buffalo, with Julio Jones (hip flexor) and Mohamed Sanu (hamstring) out the second half, Hooper finished with a team-high seven targets, catching five passes for 50 yards. With Jones limited this week and Sanu unlikely to play, Hooper should get his opportunities against the Dolphins, especially in the red zone. Miami gave up a touchdown to Titans tight end Phillip Supernaw last week. -- Vaughn McClure


Carolina Panthers

What was the most notable fantasy performance from Thursday Night Football -- good or bad?

Cam Newton can be streaky good like he was in Weeks 4 and 5, throwing six touchdown passes and only one interception, compiling a passer rating of more than 130.0. But he also can be streaky bad like he was on Thursday, throwing three interceptions and one touchdown. He missed open receivers like he did in the first three games of the season and made poor decisions, admittedly not seeing coverages at time. If you play him, you'll have to take the bad weeks with the great ones. -- David Newton


New Orleans Saints

Michael Thomas struggled in Darius Slay's shadow when these teams met last year. Should we expect the same in Week 6?

We should absolutely expect the same treatment from Detroit -- a healthy dose of Slay and double coverage -- because Thomas is such an obvious No. 1 threat in New Orleans' passing game. He's more of a true No. 1 receiver than the Saints have ever had in the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era, since they had more weapons around guys like Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham (including each other). But the Saints have done a good job of getting the ball to Thomas over the past two games despite his star treatment (a combined 15 catches, 176 yards and two touchdowns). And he's big and strong enough to fight through it. So he's obviously a weekly must-start in all season-long leagues. -- Mike Triplett


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Especially considering his rough game against Arizona last season, is there any hope for Mike Evans against Patrick Peterson's shadow coverage this week?

Evans said Peterson was "the best I faced last year," and that's saying something given he also played against Pro Bowlers Richard Sherman, Chris Harris Jr., Aqib Talib and Casey Hayward. Evans expects to see Peterson a lot again this year. One of the things Evans learned was that he needed to be even more physical at the line of scrimmage and do a better job of getting open. He also believes having a ground game, which they didn't have last season, will help open things up. Also unlike last season, the Bucs have DeSean Jackson and two of the best scoring tight ends in the league in Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard. With so many more options, it'll be hard to key in on just one guy. It should also be noted that Evans is still the 12th-most-targeted wide receiver in the league, even though he's played one fewer game than all but Jarvis Landry in that category. He's averaging 9.5 targets per game, more than any other Bucs receiver. -- Jenna Laine


NFC WEST


Arizona Cardinals

How many touches can we expect from Adrian Peterson in his Cardinals debut?

It's safe to expect 10 or more, possibly in the range of 15. However, if Peterson gets going early and the Cardinals' offensive line can open holes for him, then Arizona will ride him and he can turn in a 20-carry day. But Arizona is preparing Peterson to be the primary rushing option on first and second down. However, while Arizona has converted 37.2 percent of its third downs this season, Tampa Bay's defense has give up conversions on 46.4 percent of third downs. -- Josh Weinfuss


Los Angeles Rams

What's gone wrong with Sammy Watkins? Is there hope for a big rebound anytime soon?

Watkins has been targeted only six times in the past two games and didn't catch a single pass for only the second time in his career last week. A big reason for that is the Rams are going to spread the ball around, and there are a lot of others -- Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and, lately, Tyler Higbee -- who will be targeted. But also, Watkins wasn't acquired until the start of the preseason and doesn't know the playbook as well as the others. He continues to be matched up against the opposing team's best corner, and next up are A.J. Bouye (Jaguars) and Patrick Peterson (Cardinals). It might not get much better any time soon. -- Alden Gonzalez


San Francisco 49ers

Moving forward, how much of a gap in touches do you expect there will be between Carlos Hyde and Matt Breida?

From listening to coach Kyle Shanahan, it doesn't sound like Hyde is necessarily being phased out. It's important to remember that Hyde made a couple of crucial mistakes before Breida got the bulk of his work last week, and then Breida had some success. But Hyde had been quite effective in the games before that, and I don't get the impression the Niners are going to abandon him now. Unless Hyde continues to make costly mistakes (fumble and missed blitz pickups), I'd expect him to still get the lion's share of the work with Breida mixing in. -- Nick Wagoner


Seattle Seahawks

Did Week 5 offer you any more clarity as to who the top dog is in the Seattle backfield?

Nope. Last week's game in Los Angeles and coach Pete Carroll's comments afterward all indicated that Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy will to some degree share the workload in Seattle's backfield. Technically, Lacy started against the Rams, but Rawls ended up with more snaps -- 32 compared to 19 -- after playing quite a bit in the fourth quarter. They each finished with 10 touches, and Carroll said of the two the next day: "We like our guys, and really, equal status now is good for us." There might be times when Seattle goes with one of them primarily if he has a good week of practice or gets hot in a game, but as of now, there doesn't seem to be a clear-cut No. 1 option like rookie Chris Carson was over the first month of the season. -- Brady Henderson

 

[HacheMan]

Week 6 takeaways on Adrian Peterson, Aaron Rodgers and more
Matt Bowen
ESPN INSIDER
10/17/17

On Sunday, in his first game with the Cardinals, running back Adrian Peterson thrashed the Buccaneers defense for 134 yards and two touchdowns. But is the veteran now back for good? Let's discuss Peterson's value moving forward, hit on the fantasy fall-out in Green Bay with the injury to Aaron Rodgers, take a look at Nelson Agholor's run on production and much more.

Here are my Week 6 fantasy takeaways:


Adrian Peterson isn't done yet

When Peterson was traded to Arizona last week, I didn't see the veteran having an immediate impact after his limited production in New Orleans. But that's exactly what Peterson did versus the Tampa Bay defense on Sunday, rushing for 134 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries (5.2 yards per carry).

With consistent touches, and a major jump in volume, Peterson showed his entire skill set in that matchup. The power? Yes, it's still there. So is the vision to jump through running lanes, the footwork to make defenders miss in the open field, and that sudden burst when he finds daylight. Peterson tore up the Buccaneers on downhill runs and finished the job at the goal line.

Plus, his ability to run the ball led to Carson Palmer's touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald. They came out in tight formation (run alert), and utilized play-action. The safety took the bait and left an open window for Palmer to hit Fitzgerald for six points. If the Cardinals can continue to run the ball effectively with Peterson, Palmer will get to see more eight-man fronts with one-on-one matchups on the outside.

Looking ahead, I don't think this is just a one-game thing with Peterson. We all saw it. The talent is still there, and so is the Cardinals' commitment to run the ball. This is a back who thrives with a heavy workload and he should be a solid RB2 in Week 7 versus the Rams.

The fantasy fallout from the Aaron Rodgers injury

The fantasy stock of Green Bay's offensive skill players takes a major hit with the collarbone injury to quarterback Aaron Rodgers. There's just no other way to say it. Yes, with Brett Hundley stepping in (18-of-33, 157 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions versus the Vikings), the Packers will still showcase their West Coast concepts and movement passes. Run your offense. I get that.

However, Rodgers' ability to deliver the ball into tight windows, make off-schedule plays and extend the pocket was key to the value of Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. Think of all the red-zone plays where Rodgers would buy time for routes to convert, or the pinpoint ball placement on back-shoulder throws. It's amazing stuff. While Hundley has the mobility to step up and get to the edge of the pocket, he's not close to the magician that Rodgers is when it comes to creating opportunities for his wide receivers at all three levels of the field.

There is a possibility that tight end Martellus Bennett sees a slight bump in targets thanks to middle-of-the-field throws. The Packers could also lean more on the run game with Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery. However, fantasy managers have to prepare for this Green Bay offense to take a serious step back as they transition to life without Rodgers, who had already thrown 13 touchdowns on the year.

Nelson Agholor's value climbing

Did you see the speed from Agholor on Thursday night? I'm talking about that immediate burst to get vertically up the field after hauling in that slant route to get six points versus the Panthers. Sure, it was a poor matchup decision by Carolina to have a linebacker walk out into coverage over Agholor in the slot -- one quick shake at the line and Agholor was gone. All day.

However, the Eagles' slot receiver now has four touchdowns on the season and has caught 11 of 16 targets in the past three weeks for 206 yards. The key here is the production after the catch. On those 11 grabs, Agholor averaged a whopping 9.0 yards after the catch. The former first-round pick is playing extremely fast in a Philadelphia offense that will lean on the quick game and RPOs (run-pass options) with quarterback Carson Wentz. Get the ball out and let Agholor use that separation speed to slice through defenders.

For managers looking for that rising WR3/flex, Agholor is a guy you can drop into the lineup. He's currently rostered in only 36.3 percent of ESPN leagues. His targets are becoming more consistent and the ability is showing on tape.

Jerick McKinnon is the running back to start in Minnesota

Rostered in 75.5 percent of ESPN leagues, McKinnon is a must-add for any manager looking for a back with RB2 production. Over the past two weeks, McKinnon has racked up 245 total yards (on 43 touches) with three touchdowns. It's McKinnon's versatility as a pass catcher that makes him the smart play over Latavius Murray in the Vikings backfield.

Based on what I'm watching, the game speed (or burst) is what separates McKinnon from Murray. He just plays faster with the lateral quicks to shake defenders in the open field. That shows up in both the screen game and on downhill runs. Go back to McKinnon's touchdown run versus the Packers on Sunday. He hit that hole quick. Watch McKinnon after the catch. He can cut down angles.

With 11 receptions (on 12 targets) in a pair of wins over Chicago and Green Bay, McKinnon has shown that he can handle a heavier workload and produce in multiple ways. Get him in your lineup moving forward.

Mark Ingram now in the RB1 mix?

With Peterson now having moved to Arizona, Ingram saw a jump in volume versus the Lions. The Saints running back carried the ball 25 times for 114 yards (including a 51-yard run) and also added another 36 yards on five receptions. Ingram ran hard too, gaining 90 yards after first contact, according to ESPN Stats & Info, and scored both of his touchdowns on goal-line carries. That's a major positive in a New Orleans offense that is going to move the rock and score points.

We know about the skill set of Alvin Kamara and I wrote about the Saints rookie earlier this season. There's dynamic talent there with legit value in PPR formats. Kamara got 10 carries (75 yards) and also caught four passes on Sunday. He's still going to see touches as a versatile threat in Sean Payton's system.

However, with Peterson out of the mix, Ingram is going to jump into the discussion as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2. I'm going to rank him as an RB1 in Week 7 versus the Packers defense.

Cameron Brate has TE1 value in Week 7

Over the past three games, Brate has seen 23 targets. That's a big number. Tampa Bay's tight end has caught 15 of those targets for 224 yards, with three touchdowns. I think Brate runs the red-zone shake/seam route as well as any tight end in the league. Plus, he shows good body control to adjust to the ball, and his frame is a factor when he gains leverage inside.

Yes, we have to monitor the shoulder injury to Jameis Winston this week, but Brate did catch his touchdown against the Cardinals from backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. It was a good throw -- back-shoulder placement with the linebacker running the seam. While Brate has a tougher matchup in Week 7 versus the Bills defense, I'm still going to rank him as low-end TE1. There's just too much volume here to ignore.

Beware Darius Slay in future matchups

We need to give some credit here to ESPN's Mike Clay, who warned fantasy managers of the expectations for Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas in Week 6 in a matchup with the Detroit cornerback. On Sunday, Thomas was held to just 11 yards receiving on three receptions (six targets) in the New Orleans win over Detroit.

That sub-par stat line really speaks to the coverage skill set of Slay. I truly think Slay is one of the NFL's most underrated cornerbacks. He has a smooth pedal, the transition speed to close on the break, and the ball skills to finish. He's going to challenge routes. Slay took one pass away from Thomas on an interception and should be on the radar of every fantasy manager this season when they set their lineups.

Where did the production go with Sammy Watkins?

Remember that Thursday night game back in Week 3 when Watson went off versus the 49ers? Watkins made plays at all three levels of the field and finished with six receptions (on seven targets) for 106 yards and two touchdowns. He has strong run-after-the-catch ability, can chase down the deep ball, and has the physicality to finish. He looked to be a good fit for Sean McVay's system in Los Angeles, but since then? Man, there's not much to talk about.

In the past three weeks, Watkins has a total of two grabs (on 10 targets) for 28 yards. That's it. No touchdowns. No big plays. The Rams did have some nasty matchups in their past two games against the secondaries of Seattle and Jacksonville, and Watkins had an opportunity on a deep throw that missed on Sunday. Still, the lack of production here, along with the low volume of targets, is going to push Watkins down in my rankings this week versus Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals.

Adam Gase, Dolphins show some creativity with Jarvis Landry

Landry didn't put up massive numbers on Sunday in Miami's upset win over Atlanta (eight receptions, 62 yards, one touchdown), but the wide receiver did see a ton of targets (14). Gase also dug deep into his playbook to set up Landry for an easy score in the red zone. Really, this is what I've been waiting for all season with Gase and quarterback Jay Cutler.

Outside of the quick game and the screens off the RPOs, Gase has the creativity as a play-caller to facilitate production in his system. I loved the window dressing the Dolphins used with Landry coming in motion to the backfield and then wheeling back to the flat versus man-coverage for the score. It forces the defense to adjust and is a quick read for Cutler, too, off play-action.

Check it out, as I broke down the play here on Madden. It was smart, fun football from a Dolphins offense that had a rough start to the season.

 

[HacheMan]

Week 6 fantasy football flex rankings
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
10/17/17

The first segment of planned bye weeks seemed to be a problem for many fantasy owners, notably with filling out the flex position. Perhaps your team’s depth seemed fine in September, but then came October; remove some weekly options from consideration and the tune changes. We’ve got more byes this week and in future ones, so depth will be tested, and teams might have to choose from players barely ranked in the forthcoming top 100. It’s a challenging time for all. We’re all counting on you. Good luck.

Let’s flex, Week 6 style!

1. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: Topped 10 receptions in Week 5 for the third time this season.
2. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars: The 90-yard touchdown scamper helped a lot, but still, he’s scoring in every game.

3. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers: It’s not about the rushing yards. It’s about the total yards, and he’s getting them.

4. Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs: What? He hasn’t scored since Week 3? Yep, time to move on. Charcandrick is taking his job. (Hunt is fine.)

5. Todd Gurley, RB, Rams: First rough game came against Seattle. Gurley is not the first to struggle against that team.

6. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: Back from bye and hopefully healthy and with a few red zone looks coming his way.

7. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans: One of two Texans among the top-10 overall scorers so far. The rookie quarterback is the other. Trust.

8. Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons

9. Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers

10. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers: You know, anyone can get hurt, and just because Allen has had that issue more than others doesn’t mean it will happen again. Not thinking about selling high here.

11. Michael Thomas, WR, Saints

12. DeMarco Murray, RB, Titans: Would be more concerned if his backup was usurping the starting role. But that’s not the case. Titans need their quarterback to return.

13. C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos

14. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers: Disappeared at the end of the Dallas win, and while it’s not worry time, his fantasy value does seem awfully tied into touchdowns.

15. Brandin Cooks, WR, Patriots: He’s fifth on the team in receptions, which kind of makes this ranking seem odd, I admit. Let’s be a bit more patient.

16. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts: Proving that his talent supersedes the talent level of the guy throwing the football.

17. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Well, now that they’ve traded for a Hall of Fame running back, just imagine how many more targets this Hall of Fame receiver will get! C’mon. Nothing changes here.

18. Jay Ajayi, RB, Dolphins: It’d be nice to see him score a touchdown. Heck, let’s see the Dolphins score.

19. Jordan Howard, RB, Bears

20. Lamar Miller, RB, Texans: Can’t complain about consistency; between 56 and 75 rushing yards each week.

21. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers: It’s his turn to face the scary Patrick Peterson monster. And by the way, that’s absolutely a thing. If you’ve got better options, sit Evans. Peterson is the best.

22. Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs

23. Michael Crabtree, WR, Raiders: Perhaps sometime in 2020 we’ll all definitively proclaim he’s not the team’s top wide receiver. Amazing how people view the Oakland wide receiver hierarchy, still.

24. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos

25. Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers: What a weird situation here. Hyde owners shouldn’t panic just because the head coach might bench him for an undrafted and unproven rookie on a whim, but be prepared.

26. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Eagles: Just faced the Peterson monster and it wasn’t much fun. Easier matchup this week.

27. Davante Adams, WR, Packers: Give him credit. Not only played in Dallas but scored twice.

28. Chris Hogan, WR, Patriots: Can’t say he’ll actually be changing ranking places with Cooks soon, but Hogan is becoming safe WR2 option.

29. Golden Tate, WR, Lions: Not all weeks will be great. Sure would be nice to have more of a threat of touchdowns, though.

30. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Raiders: His believers think the return of Derek Carr will change everything statistically, but don’t be so sure. He’s just not the same guy.

31. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers: Looked pretty good in his season debut.

32. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: If I were coaching the Saints I’d probably give the rookie more chances than this veteran. But until the Saints actually do that, both are worth it, and Ingram comes first. For now.

33. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers: Whine all you want about him, but he’s a rookie running back on pace for 86 catches. There’s nothing wrong with him at all.

34. Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings: Uh oh, the injury bug has found him again. Hope this doesn’t go like last season, when Diggs rocked in September and then stopped rocking.

35. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos

36. Pierre Garcon, WR, 49ers: He’s on pace for 90 catches and 1,213 yards. That’s a top-20 WR easy.

37. Ty Montgomery, RB, Packers: Some will say it’s ridiculous that the rookie Packer isn’t ranked ahead, but do you know what the team will do? Montgomery, when healthy, and that might not be this week, isn’t going away.

38. Duke Johnson Jr., RB, Browns: Looks odd to see him ranked here, but a mere six running backs have more PPR points this season.

39. Javorius Allen, RB, Ravens: And this guy is 15th in PPR scoring at RB. Rushing attempts aren’t the key anymore.

40. Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints: Future star, of course.

41. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers

42. Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings: Let’s stop pretending it matters who plays QB for the Vikings, OK? Thielen is just a good player.

43. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: So, ya gonna play this week, Rob? Just give us notice, that’s all we ask.

44. Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins

45. DeSean Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: Whined about lack of targets and look what happened! He got more! Works every time!

46. Terrelle Pryor Sr., WR, Redskins: I like how some fantasy owners believe their players will be rested and so much more awesome coming off the bye, and others think they’d forgotten how to perform. It’s just a week off.

47. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs: He’s in concussion protocol so it’s no certainty he plays this week.

48. Mike Gillislee, RB, Patriots: Not so much fun to rely on when he’s not scoring touchdowns. And he hasn’t scored since Week 2. Sad face.

49. Frank Gore, RB, Colts: Not looking like this will be his 10th season with 1,000 rushing yards. But he is giving you something each week.

50. Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons

51. Devin Funchess, WR, Panthers: Ask and you shall receive. He and Ed Dickson have really stepped up lately.

52. Will Fuller V, WR, Texans: Won’t be scoring two touchdowns every week, which makes him a prime sell-high choice.

53. Rishard Matthews, WR, Titans

54. Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles: Seventh in receiving yards, and tied for third in receptions, and not just at his position -- in the NFL. If you’ve got Ertz and Gronk, play ‘em both.

55. Amari Cooper, WR, Raiders: We know you want to give up on him, and this ranking seems unbecoming of someone of his ability level and track record, but be patient. He’s really good.

56. Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings: Not a huge surprise that he looks like the Vikings back to own.

57. Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals: He’s the Cardinals back to own. No, really, he is.

58. Rob Kelley, RB, Redskins: We keep the theme going, even though Kelley really hasn’t done much.

59. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Eagles

60. Elijah McGuire, RB, Jets: As of this writing, it’s unclear if Bilal Powell and/or Matt Forte will play, but if you’re running the Jets, why not see what this rookie can do?

61. Sammy Watkins, WR, Rams

62. Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots

63. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Lions

64. Tarik Cohen, RB, Bears: Things have quieted down for him statistically, which isn’t a surprise.

65. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers

66. DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins: We’ve all seen Jay Cutler play poorly before, but he’s reaching some new lows recently.

67. Alex Collins, RB, Ravens: The problem here is the Ravens don’t trust he can hold on to the football. Otherwise, he’s great.

68. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: Still think he’s the most valuable Carolina back?

69. Theo Riddick, RB, Lions: Had a season-best 53 yards from scrimmage in Week 5 and 53 really isn’t much.

70. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Ravens

71. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns: Keep him owned but on the bench.

72. Latavius Murray, RB, Vikings: Seems like he should be on your bench as well.

73. Tyrell Williams, WR, Chargers: The debut of rookie Mike Williams is nigh.

74. Willie Snead, WR, Saints: Should debut this week, and if it goes well, watch him be a popular free agent add next week. Why not act now?

75. Chris Thompson, RB, Redskins: Not at all likely to keep scoring touchdowns at his current rate.

76. James White, RB, Patriots

77. Aaron Jones, RB, Packers: If Montgomery is ruled out, then Jones moves into top 30 on this list. He looked that good.

78. Jamison Crowder, WR, Redskins

79. Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants: Someone has to catch the Eli Manning passes ... other than the Denver secondary of course.

80. Delanie Walker, TE, Titans

81. Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins

82. Ricardo Louis, WR, Browns: Watch him and new QB Kevin Hogan lead the Browns to greatness.

83. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans: People still love him, but that’s 16 yards on 10 carries the past two weeks.

84. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Buccaneers

85. Marlon Mack, RB, Colts: He probably should be the starter already, but Gore is very respected and still competent.

86. Matt Breida, RB, 49ers: He could be the San Francisco starter soon, believe it or not.

87. Adrian Peterson, RB, Cardinals: He has surprised us before. Kinda reminds me of when Emmitt Smith finished things up in Arizona except his final year actually was productive.

88. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings: If you want to believe it’s because Case Keenum was at QB, then whatever works for you.

89. Cameron Brate, TE, Buccaneers: No longer hearing from all the people who swore rookie O.J. Howard would make Brate disappear anymore. Hmmm.
90. Evan Engram, TE, Giants

91. Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers: Has reached 50 receiving yards in one game. Doesn’t sound so enticing anymore.

92. Marvin Jones Jr., WR, Lions

93. Eric Decker, WR, Titans

94. Mike Wallace, WR, Ravens: He caught a pair of 50-yard passes just last week!

95. Taylor Gabriel, WR, Falcons: Reasonable fill-in insurance if Mohamed Sanu isn’t healthy enough to suit up.

96. Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts

97. Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Saints

98. John Brown, WR, Cardinals

99. Jermaine Kearse, WR, Jets

100. Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams

Others: Robert Woods, WR, Rams; Jamaal Charles, RB, Broncos; Orleans Darkwa, RB, Giants; D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texans; Jaron Brown, WR, Cardinals; Marqise Lee, WR, Jaguars; Robby Anderson, WR, Jets; Shane Vereen, RB, Giants; Matt Forte, RB, Jets; Roger Lewis, WR, Giants; Wayne Gallman, RB, Giants; Samaje Perine, RB, Redskins; Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers

 

[HacheMan]

Best and worst wide receiver matchups for fantasy football Week 7
Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER


By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're now able to identify where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking matchups between the two positions, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings and fantasy advice each week this NFL season.

Below are the receivers with the best and worst Week 7 matchups, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.


To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet.

Downloadable cheat sheet PDF

Because of the size of the chart in the PDF, here is a key to help you get the most out of it each week:

Rt = Number of routes run by each player during the 2017 season
LWR/Slot/RWR = Percentage of the player's routes run from left wide receiver, the slot and right wide receiver, respectively
T/R = Percentage of a player's pass routes in which he's targeted
F/R = Fantasy points per pass route
Green suggests an advantage for the offensive player, while red indicates an advantage for the defender
An "S" indicates projected shadow coverage

Advantageous matchups


Redskins' Terrelle Pryor Sr., Ryan Grant and Josh Doctson vs. Eagles' Jalen Mills and Rasul Douglas

In what will be one of the first rematches of the 2017 season, the Redskins will look to improve on the 240 passing yards they put on the board against Philly back in Week 1. In that game, Pryor was targeted 11 times (eight against Mills) and caught six passes for 66 yards. Since that point, both Washington's receivers and Philadelphia's perimeter corners have struggled. The Eagles are allowing 40 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, which is second-most in the NFL. At 34 per game, they're also allowing the most points to perimeter receivers. That includes the most to players lined up wide to the left, which is where Pryor has aligned on 48 percent of his routes this season. And that leads to our weekly Mills update: The second-year corner has been targeted an NFL-high 67 times, and players lined up across from him have scored 96 fantasy points (second-most). Receivers have scored 68 fantasy points against Douglas (10th-most). Redskins' perimeter receivers should be upgraded this week, though you'll notice I did not mention slot man Jamison Crowder, who will have his hands full with a resurgent Patrick Robinson.


Cowboys' Dez Bryant vs. 49ers' Dontae Johnson and Rashard Robinson

Fresh off the Cowboys' Week 6 bye, Bryant is positioned for a big day against the 49ers' struggling cornerbacks. Players lined up against Johnson have scored 70 fantasy points this season (eighth-most). That's who Bryant will face on as many as half of his routes this week. Robinson is the 49ers' best corner and will be on Bryant quite a bit but shouldn't be much of a roadblock for the Cowboys' top wideout. Bryant aligns in the slot on 27 percent of his routes, so he'll also see some of underwhelming K'Waun Williams. Bryant is set up for a big day, and teammates Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley can also be upgraded.

Patriots' Danny Amendola vs. Falcons' Brian Poole

Running back James White may have stolen the show, but Amendola also had a big game during New England's Super Bowl victory against Atlanta back in February. The Patriots' slot man caught eight of 11 targets for 78 yards and one touchdown. Of that production, five catches for 62 yards came on eight targets against Poole. Poole has been a solid slot man for Atlanta, but the Falcons have now surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to players lined up in the slot this season. Amendola should obviously be upgraded. Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan will face a tougher challenge against standout perimeter corners Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford.


Raiders' Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree vs. Chiefs' Terrance Mitchell, Phillip Gaines and Marcus Peters

Are you a Cooper or Crabtree manager and worried about Peters this week? Don't be. Based on 2017 usage, Cooper will see Peters on 37 percent of his routes and Crabtree will on 41 percent. That's significant, but the two wideouts will also run more than half of their routes against the struggling combination of Mitchell and Gaines. Receivers facing Mitchell have put up an NFL-high 479 receiving yards this season and scored 95 fantasy points (third-most). Seth Roberts is a notable sleeper against Gaines, who is this season's lowest-graded cornerback at Pro Football Focus. Despite Peters' strong play, the Chiefs are allowing the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. In two meetings with Kansas City last season, Cooper caught 15 of 23 targets for 158 yards and no touchdowns. Crabtree was limited to six catches for 31 yards and no scores on 11 targets. Roberts managed five catches for 41 yards on 15 targets. Those stats don't exactly jump off the page, but the Chiefs' struggles opposite Peters open the door for better performances this week.

Tough matchups


Bengals' A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell vs. Steelers' Artie Burns and Joe Haden

The Steelers are allowing an NFL-low 20 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. Burns and Haden have held down the perimeter, which is where Green (88 percent of his 2017 routes) and LaFell (81 percent) primarily align. Green was limited to two catches for 38 yards on seven targets against Pittsburgh in one meeting last season, but note that he was shadowed by Ross Cockrell in that game (Cockrell is now on the Giants). On 131 career routes aligned across from Haden, Green has 15 catches for 194 yards and two touchdowns on 34 targets. Pittsburgh hasn't faced many top-end wideouts this season -- Green will be its toughest challenge -- but the unit's strong play is enough to downgrade the star receiver slightly. LaFell should be on the bench.

Chargers' Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams vs. Broncos' Chris Harris Jr., Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby

When these teams met in Week 1, Williams was limited to five catches for 54 yards on seven targets. Allen posted five catches for 35 yards on nine targets but bailed out his managers with a touchdown. As I wrote prior to the Week 1 meeting, underwhelming wide receiver production from the Chargers against the Broncos has been a trend for several years. Philip Rivers' target distribution to the position has dipped considerably when Denver is the opponent. This means that Allen (who will see Harris most often on Sunday) and Williams (who will primarily see Talib) both need to be downgraded significantly. Quarterbacks have preferred throwing to the tight end position against Denver this season, so expect a boost in production for Hunter Henry.


Broncos' Demaryius Thomas vs. Chargers' Casey Hayward

During the Week 1 meeting between these teams, Hayward shadowed Thomas on 23 of his 30 routes. Thomas caught five passes for 67 yards on eight targets in the game. Hayward also shadowed Thomas on 62 of his 82 routes when these teams met last season. Thomas tallied 19 targets, 10 catches and 114 yards with no touchdowns in those games (with two incomplete targets coming against corners other than Hayward). Especially with Emmanuel Sanders out this week, it's fair to expect Hayward to chase Thomas around once again. Thomas is worth downgrading slightly, but Hayward has "contained" him rather than shut him down.

In the meeting earlier this season, Jason Verrett, who has since been lost for the season, shadowed on 20 of Sanders' 29 routes. With Sanders out and Hayward on Thomas, Trevor Williams will be on replacement Jordan Taylor throughout the game. Williams, a 2016 undrafted free-agent signing, has been terrific in place of Verrett, and his presence should all but crush any sleeper appeal for Taylor. The Chargers have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, but if we break it down further, we see that they've allowed the 10th-most points to slot receivers and the seventh-fewest to players lined up on the perimeter. Those struggles against the slot make Bennie Fowler III an interesting name this week, especially with Sanders sidelined.


Colts' T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief vs. Jaguars' Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye and Aaron Colvin

The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. That includes an NFL-low 10.7 points per game to players lined up in the slot. Hilton has aligned on the perimeter on 59 percent of his routes this season, which is where he'll see Ramsey and Bouye, but the Jaguars' success against the slot means he won't get much relief when aligned inside. Granted, Andrew Luck was under center, but in two games against the Jaguars last season, Hilton produced 13 receptions, 137 yards and one touchdown on 22 targets (seven catches for 76 yards on 13 targets against Ramsey without a score). On 31 career routes when aligned across from Bouye, Hilton and Moncrief have combined for no catches on four targets. Hilton should be avoided in DFS cash games. Moncrief will see Bouye and Ramsey on roughly 80 percent of his routes and shouldn't be in lineups this week.


Rams' Sammy Watkins vs. Cardinals' Patrick Peterson

Peterson has shadowed in all six games this season, so we should expect the same in Week 7. Though Watkins has been limited to a 13 percent target share this season, he has been on the field for 165 pass plays and has aligned on the perimeter on 75 percent of those plays. Though it's possible Peterson simply plays his side, I imagine Arizona will choose to put him on the Rams' top talent at the position. Watkins has yet to see Peterson in coverage in his career.

If Watkins does, in fact, receive shadow treatment, watch for Robert Woods to take advantage of coverage from Justin Bethel. Players lined up across from Bethel have scored 109 fantasy points and six touchdowns, and are averaging 0.53 fantasy points per route faced this season (all three are highest in the NFL). The Cardinals are allowing the most fantasy points per game to players lined up wide to the right, which is where Woods has aligned on 58 percent of his routes. Both Woods and Cooper Kupp are viable fantasy starters this week, but Watkins should be avoided.


Ravens' Mike Wallace vs. Vikings' Xavier Rhodes

Rhodes has shadowed Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Marvin Jones and Davante Adams over the past five weeks. With Breshad Perriman struggling (and dealing with a concussion), Rhodes seems likely to shadow Baltimore's clear No. 1 perimeter receiver in Wallace. These two last met in 2014, and on 29 routes lined up across from Rhodes, Wallace caught all three of his targets for 34 yards and two touchdowns. Rhodes simply doesn't travel to the slot, so if Jeremy Maclin (shoulder) returns, expect him to face off with Terence Newman throughout most of Sunday's game. Maclin would be a flex option, but Wallace is best left on benches.


Giants' Roger Lewis vs. Seahawks' Richard Sherman

Looking for a deep sleeper? You may want to avoid Lewis this week. The team's new top perimeter wide receiver has aligned wide to the right on 66 percent of his routes this season. That's where Sherman has been on 95 percent of the pass plays he has faced. Sherman is allowing a position-best 0.11 fantasy points per route, and Seattle is allowing the fewest points to players lined up at the spot.

Other notes

The Falcons' Mohamed Sanu missed Atlanta's Week 6 game with a hamstring injury, but if he returns this week, consider firing him up against a Patriots defense allowing the most fantasy points to players lined up in the slot this season. Sanu has aligned in the slot on 61 percent of his routes.

Buffalo slot receiver Jordan Matthews is also dicey to return from a thumb injury this week, but if he does, he's a sneaky flex play against a Buccaneers defense allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. That includes the second-most to players lined up in the slot (and the most over the past four weeks). Matthews would primarily see struggling slot man Robert McClain in coverage.

Should you go with the Panthers' Kelvin Benjamin or Devin Funchess this week? The matchup suggests Funchess. Benjamin lines up wide to the left on 53 percent of his routes, and the Bears have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to that position. Funchess lines up wide to the right on 47 percent of his routes, and the Bears have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to that position. Benjamin will see more of Prince Amukamara and Funchess more of Kyle Fuller in this one.

The Jets' Morris Claiborne has shadowed in five consecutive games, so if Miami's DeVante Parker (ankle) returns this week, expect those two to face off throughout the game. Claiborne is solid but far from a shutdown corner. You won't need to downgrade Parker in the matchup. Jarvis Landry will primarily see Buster Skrine in the slot. The Jets have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to slot players this season.

Cleveland's Jason McCourty has been outstanding this season. He has aligned at right corner on 84 percent of the pass plays he has faced but did shadow A.J. Green in Week 4 and DeAndre Hopkins last week. It's hard to know if he will shadow Rishard Matthews this week, but my guess is he will simply play his side. That'd mean he'd see Eric Decker roughly 45 percent of time, Matthews 25 percent and Taywan Taylor (assuming Corey Davis remains out) another 25 percent. Unless ESPN NFL Nation reporter Pat McManamon reports McCourty will shadow Matthews, he's still safe to play.

 

[HacheMan]

Best, worst matchups at all fantasy football positions for Week 7
Tristan Cockcroft
ESPN INSIDER
10/19/17

Matchups are often a driving force behind fantasy football owners' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, you know the first question that comes to mind: Which one has the best matchup?

Ah, but what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?

That's where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring, though I have analyzed this data for both PPR and non-PPR and have found that the rankings would scarcely change (if at all). Therefore, these help in either scoring format.

The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense has held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks of NFL action.

Finally, a caveat: Remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.

Quarterbacks

Favorable matchup: Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (@CLE). On the surface, considering the strength of his matchup, Mariota's Week 6 looked to be a disappointment. He mustered just 14.24 fantasy points against an Indianapolis Colts defense that had previously surrendered an average of 20.2 in games against Jared Goff (16.44, Week 1), DeShone Kizer (22.08, Week 3) and Brian Hoyer (22.12, Week 5). The hamstring injury that cost Mariota Week 5, however, was clearly still an issue Monday night, especially in limiting his mobility. He attempted just two runs, resulting in zero fantasy points rushing. It was only the seventh time in his 32 career games that he had been held scoreless (or worse) with his legs.

Mariota did improve over the course of the contest, though, and an additional week to heal should be good for him. A matchup against the Cleveland Browns can only help, as they've allowed more fantasy points per pass attempt (0.578) than any other team.

Unfavorable matchup: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (CIN). In recent seasons, Big Ben has developed a reputation as a home/road player, in other words, someone to only start in fantasy in his home games. This season, Roethlisberger hasn't been a reliable fantasy option regardless of the venue, falling shy of 20 fantasy points in six straight games and exceeding 12 only twice.

The Cincinnati Bengals provide him one of his tougher tests for a home game, having afforded quarterbacks the fifth-fewest fantasy points per pass attempt (0.298). They've also been the only team to hold Deshaun Watson in check as a passer (5.00 fantasy points passing, Week 2) in his five career starts. Roethlisberger, incidentally, has averaged 14.23 fantasy points per game against the Bengals since the beginning of 2012, more than three points below his overall per-game average.


Running backs

Favorable matchup: Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals (@LAR). If you're angling to sell high on Peterson following his 25.4 fantasy point bounce-back Week 6 -- and I'd suggest you do -- perhaps it's worth waiting until after this week to follow through on the plan. The Los Angeles Rams represent the league's most favorable matchup for a running back, having afforded them the most fantasy points (191.8), as well as the most fantasy points per rushing attempt (0.730).

In Week 6, two Jacksonville Jaguars running backs, Leonard Fournette (21.8) and Chris Ivory (22.7) scored 20-plus points against them. Though Peterson will face tougher times ahead, he does appear to have enough left in the tank to capitalize against weaker defenses.

Unfavorable matchup: Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders (KC). Lynch is off to an awful start to his first season with the Raiders. His 3.7 yards-per-carry average is his worst in seven years, and the second worst of his NFL career. He's also playing on considerably fewer snaps this year than in seasons past, just 24 per game after averaging at least 35 per game in each of his five most recent seasons.

Lynch is a player to avoid if you can whenever he faces a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has been one of the stingiest against the run in the league. They've already met Le'Veon Bell (Week 6), Melvin Gordon (Week 3), Lamar Miller (Week 5) and Chris Thompson (Week 4) over the past four weeks and held each of the latter three to two-or-more fantasy points fewer than their seasonal points-per-game averages.




Wide receivers

Favorable matchup: Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (ARI). When it comes to the Cardinals defense, you want to avoid the wide receiver covered by Patrick Peterson and start all of the others. Through six games, the Cardinals have allowed 233.6 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, fifth most in the league, but a league-leading 171.6 of those have been accrued by non-No. 1 wideouts.

Sammy Watkins is the logical guess as the Rams wide receiver most likely to be covered by Peterson on the majority of snaps, as he is the team's most naturally gifted player at the position, as well as one of the two most likely to play on the perimeter. Robert Woods is the other. Kupp generally plays out of the slot, which gives him the better matchup. He also has the second-most targets (32, three behind Woods) and second-most fantasy points per target (1.8, behind Watkins' 2.0) of Los Angeles' top three receivers.

Unfavorable matchup: Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers (@CHI). The Chicago Bears' pass defense has been one of the more surprising units through six weeks, led in large part by Prince Amukamara and Bryce Callahan. Typically, No. 1 wideouts fare better against the Bears than supporting cast members do, so this could be a tougher week for Funchess than it will be for Kelvin Benjamin. Among some of the wide receivers the Bears have held relatively quiet to date: Davante Adams (9.3 fantasy points, Week 4), Stefon Diggs (1.4, Week 5), DeSean Jackson (6.9, Week 2), Julio Jones (10.6, Week 1) and Adam Thielen (9.5, Week 5).

Tight ends

Favorable matchup: Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers (DEN). Although it didn't play out that way in the Week 1 meeting between these sides, the way to typically beat the Denver Broncos' pass defense is to target the tight end rather than wide receivers. That's no surprise, considering the Broncos sport the game's best cornerback trio in Chris Harris Jr., Bradley Roby and Aqib Talib.

This defense has faced four tight ends who received at least five targets in a game so far this season -- Jason Witten in Week 2, Charles Clay in Week 3, Jared Cook in Week 4 and Evan Engram in Week 6 -- and they averaged 17.1 fantasy points in those contests. Henry has been targeted 15 times combined in the past two weeks, playing 59 and 54 snaps in those games, and showing a distinct increase in usage that bodes well heading into a matchup as favorable as this one.

Unfavorable matchup: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (@SF). Only one team in the league hasn't allowed a single tight end to score eight or more fantasy points in a game this season. Can you guess which one it is? That's right, it's the San Francisco 49ers, who have faced Greg Olsen (3.8 fantasy points, Week 1), Jimmy Graham (1.1, Week 2) and Jordan Reed (7.7, Week 6), which is hardly an easy schedule.

While the recent release of NaVorro Bowman might drag this defense somewhat in the wrong direction against tight ends, Reed's difficulty last week -- that game played after Bowman's release -- suggests that Witten might have to settle for shorter passes that will cap his fantasy upside. If the 49ers have a healthy Reuben Foster (ankle), that would only serve to make this matchup even more difficult.

 

[HacheMan]

Week 7 rankings reaction to McKinnon-Allen meeting
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
10/19/17

Perhaps it will take some time for fantasy managers to view the running backs in Sunday's Ravens-Vikings matchup as truly reliable options, but we at ESPN Fantasy are all-in on rejuvenated Minnesota starter Jerick McKinnon this week. We also figure to be for Baltimore starter Javorius Allen in better matchups.

But wait, don't the Ravens and Vikings both do a great job defending the run? Well, it's Week 7 and we have some evidence showing that isn't quite the case, thus the rankings discrepancy.
When Vikings rookie Dalvin Cook went down with his knee injury, most predicted Latavius Murray would be involved moving forward. He has been, but with a caveat: He wasn't likely to be quite as good -- or healthy -- as the numbers he provided in Oakland would indicate. But few could have believed that McKinnon, who was pretty underwhelming in past seasons -- and he did have opportunities -- would perform to this level.

McKinnon has fumbled in each of the past three games, losing two of them, but that doesn't seem to be hurting his ability to attract touches. He has scored rushing touchdowns in both of the past two games and caught a combined 11 passes for 81 yards and another score in that span.

Murray looks to be quite ordinary and perhaps it's due to not being fully recovered from his offseason ankle surgery. Still, that doesn't buy one an asterisk in fantasy. McKinnon approached RB1 status from us this week, and part of the reason I was willing to push him ahead of more established veterans like DeMarco Murray and Carlos Hyde was the matchup. Baltimore did nice work against the run the first two weeks of the season, but when better running backs were on the schedule over the past month, those backs have thrived. The Ravens have permitted an average of nearly 30 PPR points per game to running backs over four games, and while McKinnon isn't Leonard Fournette, Le'Veon Bell or Jordan Howard, he has certainly played that way recently.

For Allen, the problem is that the Vikings still do defend the run well, having permitted the second-fewest fantasy points to the position this season. Only the Denver Broncos, who a few days ago were embarrassed by Orleans Darkwa of all people, have been better. Perhaps we're overrating matchups, but Allen still earned a strong flex rank from us because he's clearly Baltimore's main guy by this point and he catches passes. There's no sign of Terrance West anymore and Alex Collins, while averaging a hefty 6.4 yards per rush and getting enough rushes to matter in non-PPR, has yet to catch a pass. The Ravens appear scared to use Collins in the fourth quarter due to his own fumbling issues. Allen’s the guy, but this week might be the last time we don't view him as an RB2.

Week 7 quarterback thoughts: We're splitting hairs with most of the top options, but there is some variance to be found with Cam Newton and Carson Palmer. Newton plays the Bears in Chicago's den and it's worth pointing out the Bears have kept opposing passers in check. They haven't allowed any 200-yard games in a month and had only one game with more than one touchdown pass. They haven’t faced someone this mobile, though. Palmer, meanwhile, gets the Rams. I just wonder if the Cardinals rely heavily on the run and, in an effort to keep him upright, don't allow Palmer to throw 40 times.

Brett Hundley is a QB2 -- and he has never started a game. ... Don't buy into the popular debate that points aren't scored on Thursday nights. Yes, the players are tired and it's probably not at all healthy for them to play on a short week, but teams that tend to score points still score points. Alex Smith should do well. I fear I may have ranked Derek Carr too well, though. ... The Titans get thrown on, but I have a hard time relying on DeShone Kizer, even if the Browns suddenly feel they can.

Week 7 running back thoughts: Speaking of the Broncos and how they didn't look so Bronco-like against Darkwa, I have no concerns about Melvin Gordon this week. Remember, Gordon averaged more than 100 yards rushing in the two games against Denver last season. And really, Orleans Darkwa? I keep repeating the name. By the way, he has Seattle this week. None of us ranked him with any expectation of another 100 rushing yards.

Things change so quickly. One week, Carlos Hyde is losing carries and then, when he doesn't, we all unilaterally trust him and Matt Breida is nowhere to be found. Keep Breida owned. I bet this story isn't over yet. ... As you can see from our Adrian Peterson rankings, we're not exactly "all-in" there for another monster statistical game, at least not in PPR. Oddly enough, Arizona is playing the team allowing the most fantasy points to running backs in the Rams. I just have to think Andre Ellington will be more involved than he was last week, so don't punt him yet. ... I can't say I was tempted to rank Derrick Henry ahead of DeMarco Murray, but I did rank Henry more generously than others. ... With this ridiculous Ezekiel Elliott situation still ongoing, those who have picked up Alfred Morris and/or Darren McFadden might feel like it has been a waste. I don't know if it has been or not, but keep them on benches just in case.

Week 7 wide receiver thoughts: I thought that my ranking Sammy Watkins outside the top 40 was a bit mean, but it's the best of the group! Hey, facing Patrick Peterson is no joke. For Watkins, facing any cornerback has been a struggle. ... I did not initially rank a second Denver wide receiver since Emmanuel Sanders is out, but I've reconsidered and put Bennie Fowler III in. ... Usually when wide receivers whine about a lack of targets, things change for them. However, I don't see that happening with Martavis Bryant.

I feel like we've talked more about Willie Snead in the past few days than we did all of last year when he was healthy and modestly productive. He is helpful in PPR, but c'mon Saints, use him! ... Cam Newton's ranking was inconsistent, but two of his receivers are top 30. ... Nobody is saying the Eagles have the best secondary in the league, and they're allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers, but quite a bit of that came in Week 3 in the fourth quarter to the Giants. Otherwise, they're not an embarrassment. In other words, don't assume Terrelle Pryor Sr. and Jamison Crowder suddenly perform like their 2016 versions. I didn't.

 

[HacheMan]

Super Bowl rematch brings lots to watch for in fantasy
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
10/20/17

One could take a look at the final statistics from Super Bowl LI and fantasize that the same players will do the same things, and we'll get the same results. However, not only wouldn’t that be so awesome for fantasy, it also doesn’t seem so likely to me. Oh, make no mistake, it should be entertaining when the Atlanta Falcons travel to face the New England Patriots on Sunday night and fantasy managers should have high hopes for a high-scoring affair. With that in mind, here's what we should be watching, at least from a fantasy aspect.
1. Matt and Julio down by the end zone: It’s pretty ridiculous that Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones has only one more red zone target this season than either you or I do. I don’t play in the NFL, and I suspect you don’t either. My colleague Field Yates tweeted on Thursday that 162 players have multiple red zone targets this season -- but Jones does not. Matt Ryan can rectify that on Sunday night, and I suspect Atlanta's coaches are both aware of this stat and will make sure it gets handled. It should have nothing to do with Mohamed Sanu or Devonta Freeman or any Patriots. Jones might not score 10 times this year, but he'll score eventually. It all starts with Ryan, though, a top-five QB pick on draft day (fourth round ADP) who currently isn’t even in the top 20 at his position on a per game basis. You shouldn't drop Ryan, but if he doesn’t go statistically wild on Sunday, there will be plenty of advocates for you to do so. Let me remind people that before his MVP season, Ryan had never finished among the top five quarterbacks in fantasy.

2. Running down a dream: Patriots running back Mike Gillislee is still on a lot more ESPN fantasy rosters than James White. Perhaps people just aren’t paying attention, but Gillislee's four-week stretch in PPR shows just 3.1, 4.9, 5.2 and 2.4 points. Meanwhile, White has literally outscored him in each of those games and twice been a top-15 fantasy RB. Way, way back on that first Sunday of February, it was White who caught a record 14 passes from Tom Brady for 110 yards, and his third touchdown of the game that won New England the trophy. Still, we can’t presume that White will be used in a similar way Sunday -- if we did, we’d have to rank him ahead of Le'Veon Bell. As for Gillislee, he doesn’t belong on nearly as many rosters as he currently is. Yes, he rumbled for three touchdowns in the first game, but he’s clearly not last year’s LeGarrette Blount either. Brady is the one doing the work. Let’s see if this continues.

3. Going deeper: It’s odd that Jones hasn’t caught a touchdown, but stranger still is the fact that not one Falcon has more than one receiving touchdown. Sanu scored in double-digits for PPR in each of the first three weeks, then got hurt and was cut in many leagues. He could certainly be a factor Sunday if, active. The problem is that we might not get clarity on his status by the time the early Sunday games start. Taylor Gabriel should remain in play regardless, as he ranks second to Jones in targets. For Brady's sake, we eagerly await official word on whether or not Chris Hogan is healthy enough to play, since we ranked him as a WR1 and actually better than his far more popular teammate Brandin Cooks. How did that happen? Well, Hogan and Cooks have the same number of receptions, targets and PPR points. Hogan has scored more touchdowns, while Cooks has more yards. It seems odd to value them so closely, but it’s Week 7. How much more proof do we need that they actually are, essentially, one and the same?

4. The defense rests: The Patriots D/ST wasn’t expected to be a top-10 unit in fantasy terms, but this is ridiculous. They've scored a total of five points this season! Then again, they are trending in the right direction. The Patriots held the Buccaneers and Jets to a combined 31 points over the past fortnight, but there just aren't enough turnovers or sacks here. Brady will always get his numbers, which means the Falcons D/ST isn’t a good Week 7 play. Surprisingly, this unit hasn’t been good in fantasy, though in real life -- at least according to Pro Football Focus -- they're bordering on being a top-10 defense. Yes, the Patriots are playing better defensively and Ryan has played in underwhelming fashion, but look elsewhere. Just stop short of expecting 60-plus points again like February. I think a 24-21 game makes more sense. In any event, you shouldn’t rely on either defense for this contest -- and perhaps until further notice.

By the way, there are other games remaining this weekend involving teams that failed to reach the most recent Super Bowl. Here are a few random thoughts on things I’ll be watching for.

Backup QB roulette: Last week we watched as the Packers (famously, as we say farewell to Aaron Rodgers), Buccaneers, 49ers and Broncos (briefly) all needed to turn to second-stringers and nary a win was earned from the group. The Browns have swapped out quarterbacks this week, going back to the original guy they chose, a struggling rookie. I ranked veteran Brett Hundley kind of well, considering he’s never started an NFL game, because the matchup is a good one, it’s at home and he’s got myriad weapons. I don’t think it’s a good week to rely on Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston, but as of this writing, it sounds like the team might not be relying on him because of a sore shoulder. Ryan Fitzpatrick back in Buffalo against his old mates should be fun, but don’t go that direction in fantasy. What other backup QBs will we see, either by choice or injury?

Rising Arizona: We’ve talked enough about the rejuvenated Adrian Peterson this week, from columns and blog entries to the Fantasy Focus podcast. The future Hall of Famer should get every opportunity to chew up yards against a Rams defense that struggles against the run, but we didn’t rank him as if that’s necessarily a guarantee, either. OK, so we were wrong in Week 6. Everyone was, except basically the Cardinals. Should we double down on the mistake or do we still think Peterson emerging as a safe RB2 sounds a bit too good to be true? Keep Andre Ellington rostered. The Cardinals could trail on Sunday and make him relevant again.

Start spreading the news: Both New York teams are in last place and lacking clarity in exactly who their offensive weapons are -- which is why we must pay attention. The Giants stunned the Broncos in their elevated stadium, so writing them off against Seattle at home might seem ill-advised. Still, I can’t recommend any Giant except their rookie tight end Evan Engram -- and that includes the breakout Orleans Darkwa. It’s not like all their offensive line problems are suddenly fixed. The Jets also have a pretty decent tight end, but it’s tough to rely on any wide receiver beyond Jermaine Kearse. The Jets do employ several running backs of varying ages and ability level, but even if Bilal Powell does (as expected) play at Miami, it will be tough for fantasy managers to feel real good about relying on him.

 

[HacheMan]

Week 7 fantasy takeaways on Matt Ryan, Jerick McKinnon and more
Matt Bowen
ESPN INSIDER
10/24/17

The Atlanta Falcons' passing game looks stale and quarterback Matt Ryan continues to put up average numbers for fantasy managers. So, why has the Atlanta offensive scheme struggled under new coordinator Steve Sarkisian? Let's hit on those issues in Atlanta, take a look at the fallout from the Carson Palmer injury, discuss Amari Cooper's breakout game and more.

Here are my fantasy takeaways from Week 7 in the NFL.

What's up with Matt Ryan and this Falcons passing game?

After throwing for 233 yards against a Patriots defense that has been gashed at times this season, Ryan has topped the 300-yard mark just once this year. And he only has seven touchdown passes -- with one coming in garbage time Sunday night.

Wide receiver Julio Jones? He had one red zone target coming into Sunday. Yep, just one target (in five games) for the league's most naturally gifted player at the position. That's bad football. Now, Jones did see three red zone targets Sunday night (with two coming late) and he literally just took the ball away from Malcolm Butler on a fade route for six points in the fourth quarter. Amazing stuff.

But what gives here with the Falcons? And why has Ryan struggled to execute in this system?

From my perspective, this system in Atlanta is extremely stale under new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. The lack of movement. The lack of creativity. And the lack of generating open windows to take shots down the field.

That's a 180 from the offense we saw last season under Kyle Shanahan, a system I broke down leading up to the Super Bowl. It was a nightmare to defend, too, with Ryan embarrassing defenses at all three levels of the field. Play-action, boot, inside combination routes, wicked red zone concepts and calculated deep shots.

But this system, one that is heavy in the run game, isn't producing those open windows, clearing out throwing lanes or creating matchups to highlight the deep talent base on this Falcons roster.

And while Ryan still has value as a fantasy starter, he's going to drop down in the ranks. Because until the Falcons make some game plan changes, Ryan can't be viewed as a high-end QB1 anymore.

Sticking with Jerick McKinnon as the top back in Minnesota?

I'm still riding McKinnon as the back to start in Minnesota because of the higher ceiling in the passing game. Yeah, Latavius Murray had a really good day against the Ravens on Sunday, ripping off 113 yards and a score on 18 carries, with 75 of those yards coming before first contact. But McKinnon got his touches too, carrying the ball 14 times (47 yards) and catching three passes (10 yards).

Plus, even with both backs splitting carries/touches moving forward, McKinnon still passes the eye test for me more than Murray. He's got more juice, more shake to his game. And that shows up in his impact on the third-down package with the ability to turn a simple screen pass into an explosive play. Murray is going to find his way into some lineups, but give me McKinnon as a RB2 with that ceiling being pushed up in PPR scoring.

Aaron Jones is the guy to start in Green Bay moving forward ...

The big picture here is the touch count in the Packers' backfield with Jones and Ty Montgomery. The rookie running back saw a total of 20 touches vs. the Saints, with Montgomery checking in at only five. And, really, the production talks with Jones in an offense that now has to be much more balanced with Brett Hundley at quarterback.

Jones carried the ball 17 times for 131 yards and a score. He also chipped in with three receptions for 7 yards. The touchdown run? It was a classic power scheme. Wash down the edge and pull the guard to kick-out the force player. That allowed Jones to wait on the block, cut inside and then show a smooth burst up the field. Split those safeties and go. A 46-yard blast.

Jones is in that RB2 discussion. It's the volume and the skill set there. However, I am concerned that Jones won't maximize his value if Hundley continues to struggle in a cut-down Packers game plan. You want the best from Jones? Hundley needs to threaten more in the passing game. And Mike McCarthy needs to open up the playbook in Green Bay. That's gotta happen when the Packers return from the bye in Week 9 with a matchup vs. the Lions.

... And it's time to seriously downgrade the Packers' receiving threats

When I was setting my ranks this week, I didn't have a good feel for where to slot Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. Sure, we all knew they were all going to slide without Aaron Rodgers at QB. But after that game vs. the Saints, these cats are really going to fall until Hundley shows the ability to manage the offense and produce as a starter.

Even with Jones rolling on the ground, Hundley completed just 4-of-10 passes for 32 yards off play-action, according to ESPN Stats & Information. On throws of 15 or more yards down the field? He was 0-of-4 with a pick. And when targeting his two main targets, Nelson and Adams, Hundley completed 3-of-8 passes for a lowly 25 yards.

As I said above, McCarthy will have to open up the playbook more for Hundley, and the young quarterback should show signs of improvement with more game reps. But for fantasy managers of Nelson, Adams, Cobb and even tight end Martellus Bennett, you have to be realistic here. When the Packers come off the bye, Nelson is going to drop to a WR2 in my ranks with Adams as a WR3. And until Hundley shows progress, neither Cobb or Bennett should be considered viable options in the lineup.

Bet on talent with Amari Cooper

We were all down on Cooper through the first six weeks of the season. The lack of big plays. The drops. The low target volume. But that breakout game on Thursday night in the win over the Chiefs reminded us that you always bet on the talent.

Cooper caught 11 passes (on a whopping 19 targets) for 210 yards and two touchdowns. Quarterback Derek Carr (417 yards passing) fed the ball to Cooper all night and we also saw the Raiders get away from those static looks on offense with Cooper stuck running the hitch, the curl, etc, outside of the numbers. This allowed Cooper to showcase his silky-smooth route running ability from multiple alignments. His second touchdown grab? A crossing route from the slot. Get him the rock with open field after the catch.

I had Cooper tagged as a flex play heading into Week 7. And while his target volume is naturally going to drop a bit from that monster number on Thursday night, there is no reason Cooper shouldn't jump in the ranks. He's back in the mix as a mid-tier WR2 for me this upcoming week against the Bills.

Bucs rookie TE O.J. Howard should be viewed as a streaming option in Week 8

We talked last week about Cameron Brate as the tight end with weekly fantasy value on the Bucs roster, and that's not going to change moving forward. Brate caught six passes for 60 yards in the loss to the Bills and his nine targets were second most on the team to wide receiver Mike Evans (10).

But Sunday was also a breakout game for Howard. The rookie out of Alabama caught all six of his targets for 98 yards and two touchdowns. And those two scores came on scripted plays. Howard caught his first touchdown a Hi-Lo concept in the deep red zone. That's a shallow crossing route off play-action with Howard working away from the defender's leverage. And then the Bucs went to the tight end "throwback." Roll Jameis Winston to the edge of the pocket and sneak Howard back across the field. Wide open.

The scripted plays? Those jump out to me with Howard. Offensive coordinators are very selective when it comes to red zone plays and concepts designed to produce chunk gains. That's why it's important to look at the Bucs and how they targeted Howard on Sunday, because he played a key role in the game plan. And while one game isn't enough to vault Howard over Brate, I see value here with the rookie as a streaming option this week vs. the Panthers.

The fallout in Arizona with the Carson Palmer injury

With Palmer now down with a broken arm, Larry Fitzgerald should be viewed as the only Cardinals wide receiver with any weekly fantasy value moving forward once Arizona returns from the bye in Week 9 vs. the 49ers. And Fitzgerald's stock is going to take a hit, too.

It's easy to say that backup quarterback Drew Stanton is going to force the ball to Fitzgerald and that the Cardinals will lean more on the short-to-intermediate passing game -- where the veteran wide receiver thrives. But we also have to be honest about Stanton's skill set at the position. There is going to be a major drop-off in efficiency for the Arizona offense with Stanton running the show and I don't see this offense moving the ball or putting points on the board with any consistency. Fitzgerald is now a low-end WR2 in PPR leagues with a limited ceiling.

Don't sleep on Doug Baldwin as a WR1 in Week 8 vs. Houston

In Weeks 4 and 5, Baldwin totaled 72 yards on seven receptions. And he didn't get in the end zone. But coming off the bye, with a matchup vs. the Giants on Sunday, Baldwin caught nine passes (on 12 targets) for 92 yards and a score. And we were reminded just how talented he is at the line of scrimmage.

Baldwin can shake press coverage all day with his footwork on the release and that showed up when he beat Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie for a touchdown against blitz-man coverage. Nasty release there. Separate and go. Get six.

Now, I'll be the first to tell you that this Seattle offense lacks a true identity. But I love Baldwin's game. The toughness, the technique and the super-underrated route running. Lightning-quick footwork to win at the line or within the route stem. And when he's healthy, as he is now, Baldwin jumps into that WR1 tier for me.

Mitchell Trubisky throws seven passes -- and the Bears get a win

Trubisky doesn't have much fantasy value right now, but I couldn't leave without hitting on his stat line from yesterday: 4-of-7 passing for 107 yards. And 70 of those yards came on a pass to Tarik Cohen with the back flexed out.

Those numbers? I've seen that at the high school level with double-wing offenses. Play-action stuff. Hit the tight end on a wide-open seam route. But in the NFL? Nah. In fact, according to ESPN Stats & Information, the last team to have seven or fewer passes by one player was the '06 Panthers, with Chris Weinke (who completed all seven of those passes). And the Panthers won that game, 10-3 over the Falcons.

The rookie out of UNC has shown flashes of his ability in his three pro starts. There is some quality play on his tape. But that Bears game plan on Sunday was extremely limited. And it's probably going to have to loosen up a bit with a trip to New Orleans in Week 8.

 

[HacheMan]

Best and worst wide receiver matchups for fantasy football Week 8
Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER


By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're now able to identify where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking matchups between the two positions, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings and fantasy advice each week this NFL season.

Below are the receivers with the best and worst Week 8 matchups, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.


To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet.

Downloadable cheat sheet PDF

Because of the size of the chart in the PDF, here is a key to help you get the most out of it each week:

Rt = Number of routes run by each player during the 2017 season
LWR/Slot/RWR = Percentage of the player's routes run from left wide receiver, the slot and right wide receiver, respectively
T/R = Percentage of a player's pass routes in which he's targeted
F/R = Fantasy points per pass route
Green suggests an advantage for the offensive player, while red indicates an advantage for the defender
An "S" indicates projected shadow coverage

Advantageous matchups


Eagles' Alshon Jeffery vs. 49ers' Dontae Johnson

Jeffery has a tough slate this season, but Week 8 sets him up with one of his lightest matchups. The ex-Chicago receiver lines up wide to Carson Wentz's left on 48 percent of his routes, which is where Johnson calls home. Receivers lined up against Johnson have been targeted 53 times (fourth-most) and have produced 78 fantasy points this year (11th). Jeffery will also see plenty of Rashard Robinson, who has also had his struggles this season, but hasn't allowed as much fantasy production. Slot man Nelson Agholor is a strong candidate for touchdown regression-to-the-mean, and with K'Waun Williams doubtful, he may actually have a tougher matchup against Jimmie Ward.


Bengals' A.J. Green vs. Colts' Vontae Davis and Rashaan Melvin

The Colts have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this year. That includes the third-most to players lined up on the perimeter, which is where Green has aligned on 89 percent of his routes this season. Melvin has been better than expected in coverage this season, but left last week's game with a concussion. Davis' struggles have carried over from a disappointing 2016 season. Green will see a fairly equal share of Davis and either Melvin (if he returns) or replacement Kenny Moore II in the game. Moore was an undrafted free agent signing earlier this year. Needless to say, Green should be upgraded big time.


Broncos' Demaryius Thomas vs. Chiefs' Terrance Mitchell

The Chiefs have allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. One reason for that is game script (teams are often throwing while trailing Kansas City on the scoreboard), but the other is the poor cornerback play opposite Marcus Peters. Players who have lined up against Mitchell have been targeted 69 times (second-most), racked up 613 receiving yards (most), scored five touchdowns (second-most) and have 127 fantasy points (most). Based on his 2017 usage, Thomas will run half of his routes against Mitchell, 38 percent against Peters and 12 percent in the slot against Phillip Gaines. That calls for an upgrade. Slot man Bennie Fowler III also has a strong matchup against Gaines, who has allowed 84 fantasy points this season (seventh-most). If Emmanuel Sanders is able to return from injury, he'll see Peters on roughly 45 percent of his routes and should be downgraded slightly.


Panthers' Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess vs. Buccaneers' Brent Grimes and Robert McClain

The Buccaneers are allowing an NFL-high 44 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. Grimes hasn't been nearly as dominant as he was last season and 2016 first-round pick Vernon Hargreaves III has been so bad that the team demoted him to nickel/slot duties in Week 7. That sets Benjamin and Funchess up to face Grimes and journeyman McClain on roughly 80 percent of their routes during this week's game. Both wideouts should be upgraded.


Chargers' Keenan Allen vs. Patriots' Eric Rowe or Jonathan Jones

The Patriots are allowing the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers, which includes the most to slot receivers this year. Though the New England defense has played better in recent weeks, injuries to Rowe and Stephon Gilmore means left cornerback is a weak spot in the unit. Rowe was attacked often and struggled in coverage during 54 coverage snaps earlier this year, but he's been out with a groin injury. If he doesn't return, Jones will fill in. Either way, it will be a big mismatch against Allen, who has lined up in the slot on more than half of his routes this season. It's possible the Patriots choose to shadow Allen with Butler, but he's rarely shadowed receivers this season and he only traveled to the slot three times when shadowing DeSean Jackson and Robby Anderson earlier this year. Allen will see some of Butler and Gilmore (if he returns) on the perimeter, but the big edge inside is enough to upgrade him.


Seahawks' Doug Baldwin vs. Texans' Kareem Jackson

Baldwin is the Seahawks' primary slot receiver and has lined up inside on 71 percent of his routes this season. Jackson fits a similar bill on the other side of the ball, aligning inside on 57 percent of his coverage snaps this year (a number that is much higher when Houston is in nickel). Houston hasn't allowed a ton of fantasy points to the slot this year, but Jackson has been targeted on 21 percent of his routes and is allowing 0.40 fantasy points per route, which is one of the worst rates at the position. Especially if Kevin Johnson returns from injury this week, expect Baldwin to be busy in a plus matchup.


49ers' Marquise Goodwin vs. Eagles' Jalen Mills and Rasul Douglas

If Eagles' Ronald Darby returns this week, expect him to slide back in at left corner, which will kick Mills over to the right side. That would set up Goodwin to run over half his routes against the struggling second-year corner. Goodwin has been the league's unluckiest player in the touchdown department this season and is set up with a nice matchup. If Darby remains out, both Goodwin and Pierre Garcon will be positioned nicely against Mills and Douglas. The Eagles have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year, including the most to players lined up on the perimeter. Players lined up against Mills have been targeted an NFL-high 74 times and have scored 113 fantasy points (second-most).

Tough matchups


Cowboys' Dez Bryant vs. Redskins' Bashaud Breeland and Josh Norman/Quinton Dunbar

Even with Norman missing nearly three full games, Washington has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. A big chunk of the credit for that goes to Breeland, who has enjoyed a bounce-back 2017 season, and Norman's replacement Dunbar. Norman is questionable to return this week. If he does, it's possible but unlikely that he will shadow Bryant. Norman chased Bryant around roughly half the time during the two 2016 meetings between these teams. Regardless, Washington's success against perimeter receivers this season means Bryant (and Terrance Williams) need to be downgraded. Bryant has lined up outside on 72 percent of his routes this season.

Texans' Will Fuller V vs. Seahawks' Richard Sherman

Because Sherman rarely shadows and wide receivers rarely stick on one side, he's barely been worth discussion in this column this season. This week is an exception considering that Fuller has aligned wide to the right on 48 percent of his routes this year. That's enough to downgrade him against Sherman, who has lined up across from that spot on 95 percent of his coverage snaps. Rookie Shaquill Griffin has been targeted a lot more often than Sherman, but has been decent on the opposite side of the field. Seattle has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and the fewest to players lined up wide to the right (Sherman's side of the field). DeAndre Hopkins is fine to fire up and probably a good contrarian play in DFS tournaments this week, but Fuller should be avoided.


Chiefs' Tyreek Hill vs. Broncos' Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr. and Bradley Roby

Granted he was playing a lesser offensive role, but Hill was limited to nine catches for 52 yards and one touchdown on 14 targets against the Broncos last season. Because he lines up all over the formation, Hill will see a fairly even share of Denver's three standout corners this week. Hill is always a threat for a big play, but should certainly be downgraded against this secondary and thus avoided in DFS cash games.


Dolphins' DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry vs. Ravens' Jimmy Smith, Brandon Carr and Lardarius Webb

The Ravens are allowing 22 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this year, which trails only the Steelers for fewest in the league. Though teams haven't been afraid to target Webb in the slot this year, Baltimore has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to players lined up inside. That doesn't bode particularly well for Landry (Miami's slot receiver), though he actually has a better matchup than his teammates. Parker (79 percent perimeter) and Stills (60 percent) will work primarily against Smith and Carr on the outside. The Ravens are allowing 13.8 fantasy points per game to players lined up outside, which is fourth-fewest in the league. Landry sees enough work that he's still a viable fantasy starter, but red-hot Stills is a shaky play even if Parker (ankle) remains out.


Vikings' Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen vs. Browns' Jason McCourty and Briean Boddy-Calhoun

McCourty missed Week 7 with an injury, but shadowed A.J. Green in Week 4 and DeAndre Hopkins in Week 6. Because Thielen usually lines up in the slot, it makes sense that McCourty would follow Diggs around when he lines up outside (Diggs has lined up on the perimeter on 76 percent of his routes) instead of covering Laquon Treadwell. Thielen would then run a majority of his routes against Browns' slot man Boddy-Calhoun, who has been terrific in coverage this season. Even if Diggs and Thielen get away from McCourty and Boddy-Calhoun a few times, Jamar Taylor has been solid in coverage, once again, this season. In a nutshell, if McCourty plays, this matchup presents a challenge for Minnesota's top-two wideouts. This, of course, all assumes Diggs (groin) returns from injury.


Patriots' Brandin Cooks vs. Chargers Casey Hayward

Hayward shadowed Demaryius Thomas in Weeks 1 and 7, and has also shadowed Amari Cooper, Odell Beckham Jr. and Alshon Jeffery this season. Because Cooks lines up outside on 82 percent of his routes, whereas Chris Hogan lines in the slot half the time, it makes sense that Hayward will shadow Cooks this week (Hayward has traveled to the slot one percent of the time this year). Even if Hayward plays his side this week, second-year corner Trevor Williams continues to play at a high level and would be on Cooks roughly half the time. No matter how you slice it, this is a tough matchup for Cooks and he should be downgraded. Hogan and Danny Amendola move around enough that their value isn't impacted much.


Steelers' Antonio Brown vs. Lions' Darius Slay

Slay has shadowed in six straight games, which has included showdowns with Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, Stefon Diggs, Kelvin Benjamin and Michael Thomas. That said, it's safe to expect him to follow Brown all over the perimeter in Week 8. Slay has been terrific again this season, but quarterbacks have not been afraid to target their top receivers against Detroit. Receivers aligned across from Slay have been targeted 38 times this season and have scored 70 fantasy points (15th-most). Yes, this is a tough matchup for Brown, but he's too good and will see enough work that he remains a quality play. You may want to consider spending elsewhere in DFS cash games, but that's about it.


Redskins' Jamison Crowder vs. Cowboys' Orlando Scandrick

The Cowboys have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to players aligned in the slot this season. Crowder has lined up inside on 79 percent of his routes and Scandrick is Dallas' slot man in nickel situations. Dallas has actually been beat up a bit by perimeter receivers, so expect Kirk Cousins to rely more on Terrelle Pryor Sr. and Josh Doctson this week. Crowder obviously should not be in lineups.


Lions' Marvin Jones Jr. and Kenny Golladay vs. Steelers' Artie Burns and Joe Haden

Golden Tate is expected to miss a few games, which positions Jones and Golladay for bigger roles in the near future. Unfortunately for those invested in the two players, the increased usage may not mean much fantasy production in Week 8. The Steelers are allowing an NFL-low 20 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. Jones (90 percent perimeter) and Golladay (77 percent) will work primarily against Burns and Haden this week. Both players rank among the league's top corners in terms of fantasy points allowed per route. Neither wide receiver is more than a flex dart throw with six teams on a bye this week.

Other notes

The Jets' Morris Claiborne has shadowed the opposing team's top wide receiver in six consecutive games and thus is very likely to follow Julio Jones all over the field this week. Though Claiborne is a solid corner, this is not a situation where you need to downgrade Jones. He's still a strong WR1 play against New York.

The Panthers' James Bradberry shadowed Mike Evans part-time during the second meeting between the teams last year. It's possible we see the same plan play out this week, though the Buccaneers did not have DeSean Jackson opposite Evans last year. My guess is Bradberry and Daryl Worley simply play their sides this week. Of course, both have given up a lot of fantasy points this season, so Evans and Jackson do not need to be downgraded regardless.

 

[HacheMan]

Carolina options looking just fine for Week 8
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
10/26/17

It might seem strange that a pair of Carolina Panthers wide receivers earned WR2 status for Week 8 in the ESPN Fantasy staff rankings, especially considering that QB Cam Newton and the entire offense were shut down last week in a 17-3 loss to the Chicago Bears. Then again, the Bears aren’t pushovers defensively and this week’s foe, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, kind of are. The Buccaneers are permitting the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, as the lack of a pass rush and the struggles of cornerbacks Brent Grimes, Vernon Hargreaves III and Robert McClain set up both Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess quite nicely.
Newton and the Panthers have been something of an enigma this season. The quarterback has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes. He was terrible against the Saints in Week 3 -- also a misconstrued defense, by the way -- but bounced back for consecutive performances with three touchdown passes. Newton also has rushed for a touchdown in three of his past five games. He's not as consistent as most would like, but he's nevertheless a top-10 quarterback in season-long fantasy scoring. That’s pretty much what matters most. Oh, and did we mention the Buccaneers are bad defensively?

Benjamin and Funchess are not the leading receivers on the Panthers, a team forced to adjust when awesome tight end Greg Olsen broke a foot in Week 2. Rookie Christian McCaffrey is a PPR giant, reminding us of the Danny Woodhead seasons when he was a surprise top-10 finisher in the format. The Stanford product is on pace for what would be a historic total for a rookie at his position -- 101 receptions. He’s not a factor running the football, but neither is Jonathan Stewart, for that matter. Newton boasts all three of the team’s rushing touchdowns.

Carolina’s schedule appears mighty favorable, by the way, so Newton’s owners must consider the risk/reward of an upside-laden player who delivers strong performances roughly half of the time. Before your league’s trade deadline, you also should consider the following truth: Newton is not a disappointment and neither is McCaffrey. Benjamin -- contrary to preseason opinion -- is in fine shape, and Funchess has emerged as a WR3 choice most weeks. The team also brought back Kaelin Clay this week, and he could vault over disappointing rookie Curtis Samuel immediately.

Finally, Olsen is eligible to return in Week 12 and, while recovery time from a Jones fracture is tricky to predict, you should check to see if the impatient Olsen manager in your league cut him last month. He’s coming back. The Panthers are coming back against a weak defense this week, and they’ll get a rematch in Week 16. We'll take another look at these Panthers when Olsen returns but, even without him, this is still going to be a dangerous offense for this week and beyond.

Week 8 quarterback ranking thoughts: There's an interesting QB matchup between Buffalo’s Tyrod Taylor and Oakland’s Derek Carr on the schedule. Taylor has both the better ranking and matchup, and is coming off his best statistical game against -- naturally -- the Buccaneers. Carr is also coming off his best game, with 417 passing yards and three touchdowns. Buffalo is good, but have we underrated Carr? … I can’t recall Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, last season’s surprise darling, being ranked outside the top 10 this season, but it’s true. I’m on board with that. The Falcons' offense is a mess, despite the long-awaited Julio Jones score. I ranked the Jets' Josh McCown, going up against the Falcons' defense, only two spots worse. … Don’t overthink past individual results in London games. Minnesota’s Case Keenum faces the Browns. It might be his last start before Sam Bradford and/or possibly Teddy Bridgewater return. Statement game? I’ve got him over Matthew Stafford, facing the tough Steelers defense.

Week 8 running back ranking thoughts: Some might wonder why neither of the Raiders running backs warrants staff top-25 status, despite overrated starter Marshawn Lynch serving a suspension. We don’t know if DeAndre Washington or Jalen Richard is the guy. Several rankers really like Washington more -- like 10 spots more. I'm not sure I understand why. … I think we have to view New England’s Dion Lewis as a flex option at this point, and perhaps over James White, who earns the designation as well. … Why does Carlos Hyde get such a poor ranking from me? The Eagles haven’t allowed 60 rushing yards since Week 2. … You can’t expect Chiefs rookie Kareem Hunt to run all over Denver, but he does catch passes. I can’t see moving him from safe RB1 status. … Denver’s C.J. Anderson has a great matchup against the Chiefs but can he take advantage of it? Apparently I’m the least skeptical of the rankers, but I can’t say I feel confident there. … We’ve all got the Vikings’ Jerick McKinnon over Latavius Murray, despite Week 7 results. I feel more confident about that one.

Week 8 wide receiver ranking thoughts: We know the reasons to not feel confident in Colts star T.Y. Hilton. Andrew Luck isn’t his quarterback right now and the Bengals are a top-five team in preventing WR fantasy points. Still, we're talking about Hilton. He's still sixth in the league in receiving yards and still a WR2 for me. Meanwhile, you should just cut Donte Moncrief. The Colts might move on from him. … Watch the Michael Thomas knee injury because, if the Saints are still concerned on Friday, then Thomas moves to WR2 status. The Bears aren’t a bad defense. … I'm not sure I see the optimism from others with Jeremy Maclin against Miami. First, Maclin has been limited with a shoulder injury. Next, he has been unproductive and everything Joe Flacco sends in his direction is a short pass. Finally, the Dolphins aren’t terrible defensively. … I didn’t rank Golden Tate, Emmanuel Sanders or Willie Snead. The latter might play, but at this point, he needs to show us something first. … I’m alone in my Deonte Thompson love. It’s more for deeper formats, but Taylor made him matter last week. Watch Dontrelle Inman, replacing Thompson in Chicago, matter immediately as well. … Don’t even think about playing Martavis Bryant until something changes. … I would not play any of the Washington wide receivers. There might come a time soon where Josh Doctson challenges that for me, but that time has not yet arrived.

 

[HacheMan]

Best, worst matchups at all fantasy football positions for Week 8
Tristan Cockcroft
ESPN INSIDER

Matchups are often a driving force behind fantasy football owners' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, you know the first question that comes to mind: Which one has the best matchup?

Ah, but what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?

That's where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring, though I have analyzed this data for both PPR and non-PPR and have found that the rankings would scarcely change (if at all). Therefore, these help in either scoring format.

The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense has held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks of NFL action.

Finally, a caveat: Remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.

Quarterbacks

Favorable matchup: Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers (at New England Patriots)

One so-so game by Matt Ryan -- some of which should be blamed on the Atlanta Falcons' playcalling -- shouldn't deflect us from recognizing that the New England Patriots represent one of the most favorable matchups for an opposing quarterback this season. After all, entering that game, the Patriots were the only team in history to allow 300 yards passing in each of their first six games to begin a season, and including that game against the Falcons, they had allowed 2.4 fantasy points per game more to opposing quarterbacks than any other team. Rivers enters the week having totaled 70.34 fantasy points in his past four games, during which time he attempted 144 passes. He'll probably be tasked with throwing nearly 40 times in this game, too, considering the strength of the Patriots' offense, evidenced by this game having one of the larger over/unders of the week.

Unfavorable matchup: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

Only the Jacksonville Jaguars (6.9) have afforded opposing quarterbacks fewer fantasy points per game than the Pittsburgh Steelers (9.9) this season, and while Stafford is arguably the best QB the Steelers will have faced to date, let's stress that word arguably. Alex Smith, the most accurate passer in the league thus far, scored 15.14 points against them in Week 6, but that performance was hardly pretty and was padded in large part by De'Anthony Thomas' 57-yard touchdown reception. Stafford has the league's sixth-worst qualified completion percentage (60.4), and he'll likely be playing this game without Golden Tate (shoulder), whose matchup as the Lions' typical slot receiver would've aligned him best against the Steelers' defense.

Running backs

Favorable matchup: LeGarrette Blount, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. San Francisco 49ers)

For those feeling the bye-week pinch, Blount is a better fill-in than you might think. As the Eagles' designated short-yardage (and therefore goal-line) back, he's a stronger play when his team faces a weak overall defense, making it easier for Philadelphia to advance the football into scoring position. In this case, though, Blount's matchup is only strengthened by how poorly the San Francisco 49ers have performed against running backs in all situations. They've allowed 3.6 PPR fantasy points more per game to opposing running backs than any other team this season, as well as 30-plus in each of their past five games and 51.9 against Ezekiel Elliott and the Dallas Cowboys in Week 7. They've also allowed the most carries within 3 yards of their goal line (12) and have tied for the most touchdowns allowed on such carries (5). Blount's critics will point to Wendell Smallwood's return last week, threatening his workload and casting the Eagles' backfield into a committee picture, but Blount played more snaps (24 to 21) and had more carries (14 to 8).

Unfavorable matchup: C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos (at Kansas City Chiefs)

Despite facing the third-roughest schedule against running backs to date, the Kansas City Chiefs have limited the position to the ninth-fewest PPR fantasy points per game (20.7). They're especially strong against pass-catching backs, having allowed an NFL-low 0.97 fantasy points per target to the position, and that's despite facing Le'Veon Bell (28.1 PPR fantasy points, but just 4.2 points via receptions in Week 6), Chris Thompson (1.7 and 1.4, Week 4) and James White (9.8 and 6.0, Week 1) already. Game flow has certainly contributed to the Chiefs' success, as they've played a good portion of their defensive snaps with a lead, but considering the Broncos' recent offensive struggles, that's a potential concern in this game as well.

Wide receivers

Favorable matchup: Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

No team has allowed more PPR fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (44.4 points) than the Buccaneers, and they've allowed multiple wide receivers to score at least 12.5 in four of their six games. While the Panthers disappointed in Week 7, bear in mind they had what was a "sneaky-bad" matchup -- a matchup that most fantasy owners didn't realize was as poor as it is. This week brings a matchup much more conducive to success for both Benjamin and Devin Funchess, and it helps prop Cam Newton back up as a QB1. Benjamin, by the way, has averaged 18.2 PPR fantasy points in his four career games against the Buccaneers, his second-highest number against any of the nine teams he has faced multiple times.

Unfavorable matchup: Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints (vs. Chicago Bears)

Speaking of that sneaky-bad matchup, here it is. While the Chicago Bears have struggled at times against opposing No. 1 wide receivers -- Antonio Brown scored 27.0 fantasy points against them in Week 3, Mike Evans had 22.3 in Week 2 and Jordy Nelson put up 23.5 in Week 4 -- they've been stingy against everybody else they've faced. That's thanks in large part to the play of cornerbacks Prince Amukamara and Bryce Callahan, and Amukamara is the one who should most often find himself aligned with Thomas in coverage. Another concern here is the fact that Thomas has shown a pattern of adhering to matchups in his career, such as 2016 Week 2 against the New York Giants (9.6 points), 2016 Week 10 against the Denver Broncos (4.0), 2016 Week 13 against the Detroit Lions (8.2), Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings (9.5) and Week 6 against the Lions (4.1).

Tight ends

Favorable matchup: Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings (at Cleveland Browns)

After failing to capture Case Keenum's attention earlier in the year, Rudolph has become a much more integral part of the Vikings' offense the past three weeks. During that time span, his 25 targets lead all tight ends, his three red zone targets are tied for ninth, and his 35.5 PPR fantasy points rank seventh. This matchup against a Browns defense that has been battered and bruised by TE2-caliber talent should help him pad the stat sheet. Tyler Kroft scored 24.8 against them in Week 4, Jesse James dropped 22.1 in Week 1, Benjamin Watson posted 17.1 in Week 2 and Ryan Griffin scored 10.2 in Week 6.

Unfavorable matchup: Zach Miller, Chicago Bears (at New Orleans Saints)

Though Miller has a massive, 30 percent target share since Mitchell Trubisky took over as the Bears' starting quarterback, be careful not to read too much into that, considering the team has also attempted a league-low 50 passes during those three games (bear in mind that includes several teams having their bye weeks during that span, too). This is a team that doesn't want to throw the football any more than is absolutely necessary, which is a bad mix considering the New Orleans Saints' numbers against the position thus far. The Saints' 9.9 PPR fantasy points allowed to tight ends is sixth-fewest in the league.

 

[HacheMan]

Watching for top receivers to score touchdowns
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

Now that Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones has mercifully erased that annoying zero from his touchdown column, the fantasy world can move on to complaining about other receivers seemingly allergic to the end zone. Perhaps that’s a bit of hyperbole, because I haven’t seen fantasy managers actually up in arms over the lack of Adam Thielen's scoring prowess. Nevertheless, this is the final weekend of October and we all want to see our players produce. In any event, here are the three wide receivers with the most PPR points this season who have yet to cross that goal line, as we eagerly watch for signs of progress this bye-filled weekend!
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings: I don’t think people realize how good the Mankato product is, and things should only get better Sunday morning against Cleveland. Wait, morning? Yes! Please set your rosters before going to sleep on Saturday, as Sunday’s slate starts bright and early, from London, at 9:30 am ET. Regardless, Thielen ranks 12th among all wide receivers in PPR despite no touchdowns. He’s really good. We still don’t know for sure if Stefon Diggs, who has scored four touchdowns, will suit up, but buy low on Thielen anyway. The touchdowns will come regardless of which quarterback ends up under center going forward.

Pierre Garcon, San Francisco 49ers: He’s been around a long time and hasn’t been much of a touchdown factor, so always keep expectations in check. That said, he’s always going to be a weekly flex option at the very least, regardless of quarterback. News flash: Garcon and Julio Jones have the same numbers! Well, Garcon actually has slightly better numbers, only with one fewer touchdown. Perhaps he rectifies this in Philadelphia on Sunday. In PPR formats, Garcon actually has a decent shot at 1,000 receiving yards and top-20 WR status.

Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos: Based on ADP, one could make the case that Thomas is the new reigning "bust" at wide receiver, since Oakland’s Amari Cooper had a monster game in Week 7 and most Terrelle Pryor Sr. managers have already decided to simply move on, as they probably should. It’s not like Pryor has the track record of Cooper or Thomas. The Broncos are a mess, though I admit I’m far more concerned about running back C.J. Anderson. Thomas, who hasn’t done much in two of his last three games, should have a great game this Monday. I’d buy low here as well.

As for other wide receivers sans touchdowns, there’s nobody in the above class. The next-best options are both on bye: Robert Woods of the Rams and Marqise Lee of the Jaguars. After that, it’s San Francisco’s Marquise Goodwin, Tampa Bay’s Adam Humphries and Seattle’s Tyler Lockett. Hey, you can watch all three of them this weekend -- and with six teams on bye, you might need to by default. However, you might be alone.

Too many time-shares: Perhaps Oakland Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch simply needs this forced week off in order to rejuvenate for the rest of the season, because his first half hasn’t been so good. Lynch, the No. 14 running back chosen in ADP but currently ranked 43rd at the position in PPR scoring, serves his one-game suspension this week. He will be replaced by some unannounced combination of Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. I ranked Richard higher than Washington. He has certainly performed better, but who knows what Oakland does. I don’t think, however, even if Richard or Washington rumbles for like 200 total yards and multiple touchdowns that it necessarily means that Lynch comes back to a spot on the bench.

As for other running back situations with at least some degree of uncertainty, the backfields of the Vikings, Jets and Seahawks all seem interesting. Heading into Week 7 everyone loved Jerick McKinnon, and for good reason. He seemed like a vastly different player than he used to be, while Latavius Murray looked awful. Then Murray rambled for 113 rushing yards against the Ravens, after failing to top 31 yards in any previous game, while McKinnon took a backseat. I don’t expect that to continue. As for the Jets, Bilal Powell and Matt Forte figure to again share the football. With the Seahawks, I’ve just about given up on C.J. Prosise ever being healthy. Of course, you know that as soon as you give up on a player, that’s when they emerge.

Scorching in Seattle?: The Houston Texans come off the bye for a difficult matchup in Seattle, so we’ll probably get a better idea of just how good rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson truly is. Watson has thrown at least three touchdowns (12 total, actually) in each of his last three games. In fact, Philadelphia's Carson Wentz and Dallas' Dak Prescott both have similar streaks. According to ESPN Stats & Info, no quarterback in his first or second season has extended such a streak to four games, other than Kurt Warner (1999) and Dan Marino (1984).

Wentz and Prescott have considerably easier matchups that Watson on Sunday. The Seahawks have permitted five touchdown passes all season. We’ve collectively ranked Watson as a QB1 this week, and nobody’s going to bail if he struggles in Seattle. However, it’s certainly worth watching to see if he thrives again and becomes, essentially, matchup-proof.

MVP! MVP! MVP!: Speaking of Wentz, he leads the NFL in touchdown passes and is second to Alex Smith in fantasy scoring, but the absence of left tackle Jason Peters is likely to present a problem at some point. Halapoulivaati Vaitai is the replacement. Wentz had vastly different numbers as a rookie when right tackle Lane Johnson served his 10-game suspension, and Vaitai was pressed into starting duty for part of that stretch, too. While we might not see problems manifest in a home game against the winless 49ers, let’s not be naive about the future, either. The Eagles can’t have their franchise player taking the hits he did on Monday against Washington.

Plus, one-half of the team’s remaining games after this Sunday are against top-10 defenses in terms of preventing fantasy points to quarterbacks (Broncos, Seahawks, Rams, Bears), so Wentz managers should keep expectations relatively in check. This week should go well, however, and it figures to be a positive game for Alshon Jeffery, who really hasn’t thrived yet, and surprise Nelson Agholor. Perhaps another week of a healthy Wendell Smallwood will also add clarity to his expected workload.

 

[HacheMan]

Watching for top receivers to score touchdowns
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

Now that Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones has mercifully erased that annoying zero from his touchdown column, the fantasy world can move on to complaining about other receivers seemingly allergic to the end zone. Perhaps that’s a bit of hyperbole, because I haven’t seen fantasy managers actually up in arms over the lack of Adam Thielen's scoring prowess. Nevertheless, this is the final weekend of October and we all want to see our players produce. In any event, here are the three wide receivers with the most PPR points this season who have yet to cross that goal line, as we eagerly watch for signs of progress this bye-filled weekend!
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings: I don’t think people realize how good the Mankato product is, and things should only get better Sunday morning against Cleveland. Wait, morning? Yes! Please set your rosters before going to sleep on Saturday, as Sunday’s slate starts bright and early, from London, at 9:30 am ET. Regardless, Thielen ranks 12th among all wide receivers in PPR despite no touchdowns. He’s really good. We still don’t know for sure if Stefon Diggs, who has scored four touchdowns, will suit up, but buy low on Thielen anyway. The touchdowns will come regardless of which quarterback ends up under center going forward.

Pierre Garcon, San Francisco 49ers: He’s been around a long time and hasn’t been much of a touchdown factor, so always keep expectations in check. That said, he’s always going to be a weekly flex option at the very least, regardless of quarterback. News flash: Garcon and Julio Jones have the same numbers! Well, Garcon actually has slightly better numbers, only with one fewer touchdown. Perhaps he rectifies this in Philadelphia on Sunday. In PPR formats, Garcon actually has a decent shot at 1,000 receiving yards and top-20 WR status.

Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos: Based on ADP, one could make the case that Thomas is the new reigning "bust" at wide receiver, since Oakland’s Amari Cooper had a monster game in Week 7 and most Terrelle Pryor Sr. managers have already decided to simply move on, as they probably should. It’s not like Pryor has the track record of Cooper or Thomas. The Broncos are a mess, though I admit I’m far more concerned about running back C.J. Anderson. Thomas, who hasn’t done much in two of his last three games, should have a great game this Monday. I’d buy low here as well.

As for other wide receivers sans touchdowns, there’s nobody in the above class. The next-best options are both on bye: Robert Woods of the Rams and Marqise Lee of the Jaguars. After that, it’s San Francisco’s Marquise Goodwin, Tampa Bay’s Adam Humphries and Seattle’s Tyler Lockett. Hey, you can watch all three of them this weekend -- and with six teams on bye, you might need to by default. However, you might be alone.

Too many time-shares: Perhaps Oakland Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch simply needs this forced week off in order to rejuvenate for the rest of the season, because his first half hasn’t been so good. Lynch, the No. 14 running back chosen in ADP but currently ranked 43rd at the position in PPR scoring, serves his one-game suspension this week. He will be replaced by some unannounced combination of Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. I ranked Richard higher than Washington. He has certainly performed better, but who knows what Oakland does. I don’t think, however, even if Richard or Washington rumbles for like 200 total yards and multiple touchdowns that it necessarily means that Lynch comes back to a spot on the bench.

As for other running back situations with at least some degree of uncertainty, the backfields of the Vikings, Jets and Seahawks all seem interesting. Heading into Week 7 everyone loved Jerick McKinnon, and for good reason. He seemed like a vastly different player than he used to be, while Latavius Murray looked awful. Then Murray rambled for 113 rushing yards against the Ravens, after failing to top 31 yards in any previous game, while McKinnon took a backseat. I don’t expect that to continue. As for the Jets, Bilal Powell and Matt Forte figure to again share the football. With the Seahawks, I’ve just about given up on C.J. Prosise ever being healthy. Of course, you know that as soon as you give up on a player, that’s when they emerge.

Scorching in Seattle?: The Houston Texans come off the bye for a difficult matchup in Seattle, so we’ll probably get a better idea of just how good rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson truly is. Watson has thrown at least three touchdowns (12 total, actually) in each of his last three games. In fact, Philadelphia's Carson Wentz and Dallas' Dak Prescott both have similar streaks. According to ESPN Stats & Info, no quarterback in his first or second season has extended such a streak to four games, other than Kurt Warner (1999) and Dan Marino (1984).

Wentz and Prescott have considerably easier matchups that Watson on Sunday. The Seahawks have permitted five touchdown passes all season. We’ve collectively ranked Watson as a QB1 this week, and nobody’s going to bail if he struggles in Seattle. However, it’s certainly worth watching to see if he thrives again and becomes, essentially, matchup-proof.

MVP! MVP! MVP!: Speaking of Wentz, he leads the NFL in touchdown passes and is second to Alex Smith in fantasy scoring, but the absence of left tackle Jason Peters is likely to present a problem at some point. Halapoulivaati Vaitai is the replacement. Wentz had vastly different numbers as a rookie when right tackle Lane Johnson served his 10-game suspension, and Vaitai was pressed into starting duty for part of that stretch, too. While we might not see problems manifest in a home game against the winless 49ers, let’s not be naive about the future, either. The Eagles can’t have their franchise player taking the hits he did on Monday against Washington.

Plus, one-half of the team’s remaining games after this Sunday are against top-10 defenses in terms of preventing fantasy points to quarterbacks (Broncos, Seahawks, Rams, Bears), so Wentz managers should keep expectations relatively in check. This week should go well, however, and it figures to be a positive game for Alshon Jeffery, who really hasn’t thrived yet, and surprise Nelson Agholor. Perhaps another week of a healthy Wendell Smallwood will also add clarity to his expected workload.

"Look for Pittsburgh to throw plenty of passes against a Lions defense that ranks 28th in yards per attempt (YPA) over the past five weeks, so rate Roethlisberger as a very good spot start and consider JuJu Smith-Schuster a quality flex option as well (assuming he clears the league's concussion protocol by game time)."

Big question of the week

Will Amari Cooper follow up his monstrous 11-catch, 210-yard, 2-touchdown performance against the Chiefs with another big week on the road in Buffalo?

If you left Cooper out of your lineup last week and missed out on all the fun, you weren't alone. But the question is whether it was a one-week thing or if he's truly back to being a top-level fantasy wideout. Paul Gutierrez of ESPN's NFL Nation sees last week as a huge week for Cooper and a sign of big things to come.

"Not only did Cooper rediscover himself, so, too, did Raiders first-year offensive coordinator Todd Downing," he writes. "Cooper was moved all over the field against the Chiefs, and did most of his damage from the slot. Eleven of his 18 targets came when he was in the slot, per Pro Football Focus, and he caught six passes for 95 yards and a touchdown there. With the Bills banged up in the secondary and having surrendered an average of 350 passing yards per game since Week 5, Cooper should be primed for another good day."